7/25/24: Biden Breaks Silence On Dropout, Shock Kamala Trump Polls, Kamala DEI Debate, Top VP Picks Revealed, Bibi Trashes Protesters To Standing Ovation, FBI Director Stuns With Trump Shooter Details

different demographic groups, vis of you, Biden. We're also going to take a look at I wanted to specifically get saggered away in on this, the Republican attacks against Kamala Harris and how those are going. You have the whole Dei thing. You had a comment about her being the quote original hawk Tua girl. You now have the added attack that she is insufficiently pro Israel, this one coming from Trump himself and Lindsay Garceta. We'll go through them and talk about all of that. We also have the

latest in terms of her deep steaks. Now that she is effectively the presumptive nominee, who is she looking at? What are their strengths and weaknesses? Who is most likely to make the cut. Yesterday, Baby Net yahoo in town. He's actually still in town today. He's meeting with Biden and Harris. But yesterday he gave his big address to Congress. It was, in my opinion, disgusting. But we'll show you some of that as well and the reaction to it.

And we also are taking a look at the latest revelations with regard to the attempted assassination attempt, attempt at assassination attempt, the assassination attempt on Trump's life, and what we are learning from now the FBI director about the stunning security failures. Earlier this week, the Secret Service director finally stepped down. It was insane that it even took the length of time that it did. So we'll bring you all of those details, which just continue, honestly to shock.

As Crystal said, with Joe Biden, he finally broke his silence. We hadn't heard from him in quite a long time. He issued a letter, he called in. There was a lot of speculations to his health condition, etc. He's actually alive. What's happening. He's given us proof of life a couple of times. We finally appeared on camera to make his announcement about why he is not running again. Very brief remarks,

and you can see his age really shining through. We've cut a little bit of that announcement and we're going to talk a little bit about what he said. Let's take a listen, my fellow Americans.

But in the defense of democracy, which is at stake, I think is more important than any title. I draw strength and I find joy in working for the American people. But this sacred task of perfecting our union, it's not about me. It's about you, your families, your futures. It's about we, the people. We can never forget that, and I never have. So I've decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. That's

the best way to denne our nation. You know, there is a time and a place for long years of experience in public life. There's also a time and a place for new voices, fresh voices, yes, younger voices, and that time and places. Now, I'd like to thank our great Vice President Kamala Harris. She experienced, she's tough, she's capable. She's been an incredible partner to me and the leader for our country. Now the choice is up to you,

the American people. Nowhere else on earth could a kid with a stutter from modest beginning to Scranton, Pennsylvania, Claimont, Delaware one day sit behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office as President of United States. But here, I am that's what's so special about America.

crazy it actually is. I know that things have been moving so quickly for everybody here at the desk, But let's take a moment and pause that this is a shocking turn of events. Theodore Roosevelt, London B. Johnson, and now Joe Biden. You know, the three presidents who meaningfully could have run. I guess George Washington too, meaningfully could have run for another term, and choosing not to do so is a stunning admission, at least in the two cases of LBJ. In here, I could not win. I

am not the best standard bearer. And I know you've waited on this too, but I can't tell you how

annoyed I was reading all this hit. What a stunning and heroic There's no heroism in dodging the primary, and you know by your own incompetence and arrogance agreeing to an early debate, then being forced out by Democratic primary elites, not actually Democratic voters, who then you have the anointing of your vice president that nobody's actually cast any real votes here before you're even going into the convention, So it might be as anti democratic as a process as

it is. I am glad that he's gone. I mean honestly, even watching that, I was cringing the entire time. I said, this man needs to go today, Like this is an urgent national security crisis. Now, he continued throughout it, saying, Oh, I still am up for the job. I'm gonna continue the world. I'm like, dude, you got to go. Like his decline just in the last two months is out of control, just truly stunning.

out there. And still it's tortured. Still, there were times where he's struggling to get the words out, struggling to read the teleprompter, and so you know, at the same time, he's not saying anything about the real reasons he left. Number One, that he was absolutely pressured out, dragged, kicking and screaming to this decision. It was only when he realized that Pelosi, Obama and co. Were not going to relent. In her words, we can do this the easy way, or we can do this the hard way. That he

finally gives up the ghost. So he's not acknowledging that. He's certainly not acknowledging the fact that his decline became so manifestly clear that you had an overwhelming majority of Democratic voters who were like, dude, come on, hang it up.

So none of that is outwardly acknowledged, and yet it clearly hangs over this speech, in the quality of his voice at this point, in the energy level of the delivery, in the inability, even in a short speech like this that he clearly, you know, spent days preparing for, to deliver it smoothly with any sort of life and vitality, even though it went unspoken, those things were all very clear.

I mean, obviously, this is his attempt to try to define his legacy, right, This is his attempt to lean into the story of his great selflessness and heroism, which is preposterous because if you truly were this self sacrificing person who cares first and foremost about defeating Donald Trump, even if you, if you accept that frame, he has put his party in a very very difficult position in order to do that because while we'll get to the polls,

Kamala Harris already performed better than he is, she is still one of the weaker candidates that Democrats could put forward. And so not only did you forestall did you completely block any sort of a democratic primary process that would have enabled Democrats to evaluate their choices to side for themselves who would be the strongest candidate to go up against Donald Trump. But then you anoint perhaps the second

weakest candidate to go up against Trump. So, even by your own match of like it's all just about preserving democracy defeating Donald Trump returned to normalcy, even by that metric, you have done so much damage to your own parties and your own stated cause. And then, of course, I mean the atrocities in Gaza go without saying in terms of this being a great moral, compassionate, selfless blah blah blah. But you know, even by his own standards, he has dealt his party such an incredible blow.

I really didn't ever believe he would drop out. I guess what I didn't factor in was the level of effort that Nancy Pelosi is yea and the donors actually were willing to exercise. It's also interesting too, because there's some differences I think between the Republicans and others where the party institutions in the Democratic Party, when they want to be are very strong. When keeping Bernie Sanders out, they're like, hey, this is not happening period. We will

rig this thing til the end. Same here anointing Kamala, I mean, Crystal, how nuts is it that they didn't even have a semblance of an open primary. You basically had Kamala and then boom, it was like all these members of Congress, Nancy Pelosi came out Obama, a few others haven't done so, but so many others were pressured into where why is why? Wasn't a Gavin Newsomb or a Josh Shapiro or an Andy Basheer or any of these folks even allowed to throw their hat in the ring.

I mean, I personally, if I were the Democrats, I'm picking Andy Basheer at Gaffin. I mean, I think both those guys could win by a couple of percentage points if they wanted to. Kamala. I mean, I'm still putting her around forty percent right now. We'll talk about this throughout the show. Definitely better than the ten percent I'd give Biden. But I mean, you know, do you.

I mean, I think it's a couple things like, Yes, the party apparatus in the Democratic Party has shown itself to be more coordinated and more powerful than the Republican Party apparatus. But the other thing is, like, if we think about, you know, an attempt to displace Trump, Trump has a genuine, gross rates grassroots movement behind him. Joe Biden does it. He never has, like he's there because of elites. And they decided to pull his card and that was that because there wasn't going to be any

sort of outcry from the people or whatever. None of the powerful politicians behind the scenes, Pelosi and Obama primarily, they had nothing to fear from going hard against him, and he had nothing to fall back on. So, yeah, there's numbers out there now ninety percent of the public, including roughly similar numbers of Democrats, Republicans, independents, are glad

he stepped down ninety percent. So you know, if it was if you can imagine the situation unfolding with Trump and they attempted in twenty sixteen to do something kind of similar and obviously it didn't work and it would provoke a massive, massive backlash. I think you also have a situation where your average Democratic base voter. And by the way, I think that this isn't just on the

Democratic side. I think there is an openness to anti democracy and authoritarianism that has taken hold in the public because of their sense, whether you're on the right or the left, of the existential nature of the stakes right now. But I think your average democratic voter has become very comfortable with the idea of ditching democracy in service of saving democracy, which obviously is insane and blatantly hypocritical and goes against you know, the your suppose and believe in democracy.

But I think they have been persuaded of that case, which to me is deeply sad. But it's why you know Republicans who are trying to pitch a fit over the process right now and oh, this is anti democratic or the aocs of the world. First of all, where were you when any sort of actual democratic process was blocked from unfolding. He didn't care. You obviously didn't care. So you know, the notion that you're upset now that Biden was removed by anti democratic means please, you don't

care about democracy either. The time for those concerns was a while ago, and there wasn't a public outcry about the lack of a democratic process. Even I had a majority of democratic voters who said they would like to have choices but at the end of the day they were like, I guess we're just going to take what we're given.

right because, as we said, there is a couple of there are two people that will be on. It will be on then Joe Biden for to getting everybody in this situation if Trump wins, but it's also going to be on the powerbrokers and others that didn't call for the quote unquote mini primary. Even Jim Clyburn called for a mini primary recall only two weeks ago, but he didn't immediately comes out and endorses Harris. And I think that's a big mistake. It's a big mistake.

They thought they were protecting themselves. But the reality of the situation is they incredibly they created an incredibly difficult situation, incredibly difficult landscape where now you know, Kamala Harris comes in hobbled behind the eight ball, She's got momentum right now, like she's doing well, she's doing better on the polls than Biden. But there's no doubt in my mind they

could have come out with a stronger candidate. And if you had had Joe Biden having to debate primary contenders back, you know, much earlier, and the possibility of an actual Democratic primary process playing out, they wouldn't be in this situation. The other thing, you know, with Kamala Harris, now, I still think even if you had this mini primary or however you want to phrase it, going into the convention, all this is obviously moot point because she's in. She's in,

it's done and dusted. But I think she would be very likely to come out the winner of that process. If you look at the polls, you know, right after Biden dropped, you had a pretty strong consensus from Democrats that Kamala was their top choice. She's the sitting vice president.

She has a lot of advanta advantages going in, but she would also have additional legitimacy conferred on her, and she would be strengthened by having to go through that process and you know, get sharp again and be a little better thinking on her feet, and those sorts of things that she struggled with in the past, So I think it's I do think it's a mistake for Democrats.

I don't know that it will you know, it doesn't end their chances of winning in the fall, but there's no doubt they could have gone forward with a stronger candidate that Kamala Harris, given her how we've seen her perform in the past, given the fact that she is tied to an administration that has been unpopular, and she is implicated in a tremendous cover up of Joe Biden's decline that is a betrayal legitimately is a betrayal of the American people, and so all those things give her

a tough tougher hand to work from going into the question.

ran a real primary process in nineteen sixty eight. Now would he have beat RFK No, I don't think so at all. But at the very least he was able to coalesce the party to try and bring some consensus going in with Vietnam and all the other tearing apart of the process, and there were civil rights and all of that.

But we've never had an eighty one year old who's on the verge of dementia running before, and that is

literally what the process is designed. Another thing I think Americans have been robbed of is that I think it was George W. Bush and Obama, who both echoes something similar where they said, one of the benefits of the eighteen to twenty month campaign is that everything will come out everything in that you will be tested, you will have your debates, you will deal with the press, you will deal with the swings and the ups and the downs, and that the process of self prepares you. We're not

getting that with kam Law And it's not fair. How many debates are we going to get with her and Trump? Maybe one? Maybe one up two if we're lucky. No, we should have five. Actually, because you're so late in the process. More so, we haven't had the ability to stress this woman for real, in a real campaign process. If I'm her, I'm not debating very much and I'm just going to stick to the stump. She seems fine in a teleprompter and she does pretty well, you know,

for donor calls and all that. But I don't think that's fair to America to have a very little amount of time when Trump. I mean, if anything, he's been out there for almost two years now and he's running, and so there is an inherent unfairness I think to Americans here. But the problem is is that voters, as you said correctly. They are very willing to just sit and eat it right now because they hate Trump or

they hate you know, KAMMLA or whatever. They'll just sit there and be like, it's cool, I'm fine with it, and we should get away with that. If she loses, I would hope the Democrats learn that lesson, I really do.

when this really should have unfolded. I wonder what you make of the fact there's a lot of like I think New York Posts was reporting some rumors about Obama and why he hasn't endorsed Kamala now. Their claim is basically like, he doesn't think she can win. He's mad that Joe endorsed her on the way out, and so he you know, was sort of like holding off out of his anger and hope that there would be some

ability to have a different process. I don't know if I really buy all of that, because at this point the writing's on the wall, like he's clearly going to endorse her. And also, if he really wanted things to unfold that way, he could have said, he could have done a lot more to put forward like you have to put forward an alternative.

then let's let's put somebody in who can win. Let's put in a Gavin, let's put it in the gretch, and let's put in a Shapiro. And even here, all four of those people would run more than Kamala Harris. I mean even Gretchen Whitmer. And by the way, I'm not fans of any of these people. I don't like any of these people, but I can read a poll and I can understand too where that breadth of fresh air, that ability to I mean, look at the enthusiasm that

hasn't been engendered from Kamala. Now imagine it times fifty. I think for somebody who literally came out of left field, I think it would be even more. For Democrats, people would be excited, especially if you were able to put a ticket out there. So I think it was a huge missed opportunity. But you know, I don't know, do we go to the next element.

you know something like that. Yeah, no nobody stood, now did you in the world will be safe if it wouldn't for you personally, BB, And everyone's gonna be like, oh my god, And that's it. That's who are who's running our country. So let's all hope and pray that everything works out for the next till January, because I'm worried. I'm frankly more worried today than ever before in terms of if he's truly unshackled. I mean, what are his real instincts here on Ukraine on Gaza? I have no idea.

And that's actually, frankly a more terrifying concept.

He's checked out on domestic policy and whoever the agency heads or his top aids or whatever are running the show there. He has kept his grip on foreign policy with regard to Ukraine and NATO and Israel in particular, and it has been it's been disastrous. It's been utterly disastrous. And a part of that does come from this rigidity of his old age and inability to process new information and a new landscape, et cetera, and weakness and feebleness

when it comes to his dealings with Benjamin Netniahu. So it's already had a very damaging effect. And the other thing I would say, yeah, I'm curious your view on this. Sober again to the oh, he's such a hairines blah blah blah. I actually think that if he resigned, No,

that's heroic, that would be. That would be And if you're goal is for Kamala Harris to win, I think that would benefit her too, because one of the challenges of any candidate, but especially a black female candidate, can we see her in the role and you know the fact she's vice perriendent. Okay, that helps, but let's be honest.

They've basically hit her for three years because they were afraid after the less Hold interviewed, and it goes so well of what she would say, which I have to say, seeing her now and how effective she's been, especially since the Biden debate happened, I think that was a mistake because she's better than they seemed to think that she was.

But in any case, she hasn't been in front of the public wearing that mantle of vice president in all these very public meetings with fourid heads of states, etc. Which is what gives the vice president typically such an edge in electoral contest because even though they weren't the president, people kind of can easily see them in that role. She hasn't really had the benefit of that. So if you really wanted to set her up for success, if you really wanted to be some listen like, you know,

past the torch, et cetera. He would resign now on a reflection of his own decline and inability to do the job, and out of a desire to you know, allow people to imagine her in the role and to test the metal of her in this capacity as well.

But obviously he's not going to do that, So we have a lot of polling to indicate early early days what this matchup is going to look like, and the TLDR from all of the polls that have come out, which there have been a number that have come out since the Biden dropout, but only in select few where they were in the field wholly after the dropout. Basically, what it looks like is Kamala Harris is doing better than Biden, but she is still not winning the race.

It's either a toss up or she's slightly behind Donald Trump. CNN had a really interesting poll. There's just go and put this up on the screen while I talk about it. Part of why this pole in particular was so interesting is because they pulled a lot of the same people.

They pulled like the same panel that they had pulled previously when it was Biden, So you could truly see was their movement even among these same individuals, and there was Trump in The overall number is at forty nine percent support among these registered voters, Harris is at forty six, so again still losing, although I believe within the margin of error close there too, but that is closer than an earlier contest which found Trump with a six point

margin over Biden. Keep this up on the screen. Let me just talk through this. So when you dig down into the demographic groups, you could see the areas where Kamala improves on Biden's performance. She is doing better among young voters, she picks up eleven points. She's doing better among black voters, she picks up sixteen points. And she's doing better among female voters, she picks up five points.

Now I believe she also sees some erosion among those like older white voters who have been riding with Biden. And so we'll talk a little bit more about this in a moment. But this represents kind of a reversion to the expected Democratic coalition versus rumbarsacer We were looking at these polls where like Biden is doing terribly with young people, but old people usually vote Republican or voting

for the Democrat. It sort of reverses some of those stranger elements that had manifested themselves when the contest was Trump versus Biden.

fully gotten the Kamala stuff. They were very very much hoping that Kamala or that Joe Biden would not drop out of the race. That was their hope and their prayer. Yeah, and I mean they were correct in that assumption. I would say, I'm just back to where I was pre debate for the Democratic chances. So before the debate, I said, I think Biden's got a forty percent shot, and I think Trump's got about sixty. I think I'm back to that now after the debate, I would have said Trump

has a ninety percent shot. Yeah, and you know, so, look, it's better. It's definitely better. I would rather be Harris and I would be Biden. There's still a lot stronger Democratic candidates, and there are a lot comes down to choices, as in, what are the coalitions, who are we trying to win? If I am them, I'm not going to get pie in the sky and crazy. I'm going for two hundred and seventy one electrawlve votes and that's it, and that's all I care about. I don't even care

about the popular vote. I'm going for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If we win Georgia, that's great, that's great. But I am going all in on those three. So that's going to talk a lot about how their VP selection is. Now, VP selection usually doesn't matter. I think it will matter much more in this case in terms of who you pick and what you're trying to do. But I think it also comes back to who she is and what

she's trying to do. Her case against Trump, her strongest case goes back to a so called cop days and prosecutor. I actually think there's something to it. We've always said here, you know, for a lot of normies being a quote unquote convicted felon, it's a problem, like, let's be honest, it is a problem that's suburban moderate voter. I also think the row row row your vote is going to be more salient than ever before. So there are two choices.

This will either be the immigration economy election in a Trump win, or it will be the abortion and economy election and there will be a Kamala Harris win. Both are actually quite narrow and how they will look on the electoral map. But if I am Kamala, it's all abortion all the time to bat our economy. They will battle it out. Trump generally has the edge on the economy. He's got a lot of people have very good feelings

about the economy from back in twenty nineteen. Kamala also has the noose around her neck quite literally, of Biden inflation and of a lot of the policy that most people objectively did not feel like. Things were going so well. That's part of the reason. If I were the Democrats, I would have picked somebody else, because I don't want somebody with that baggage who could present a real thing. But I want to see how she goes up on the air. She's got a ton of money. Now, she's

got a ton of enthusiasm. Yeah, that's huge. I want to capitalize the hell out of that, and I want from them. I'm just going all in on abortion. Where we're running the twenty twenty two playbook and we're going all the way to the end.

agree with you. I think it's too early to say where we are. Vis of you, the polls the most hopeful case for Democrats, and I think there's a lot to this. By the way, is the big thing that was holding Biden back was just he's two frigids old. I brought it up a million times. Those were clouds. So we did where the number one thing people said old. And you look at every single Democrat running in the country,

and they are outperforming him. Whether they're a great candidate or a bad candidate, or a middle of the road candidate, whether they're progressive or moderator, wherever they are, they are all outperforming Joe Biden. And so the hope is that you know, yes, Kamala has her weaknesses, but maybe just having a sort of like replacement level decent okay, can formulate a sentence, can deliver a teleprompter speech candidate, that

may be enough. And I don't think that's crazy. I think the data actually would indicate that probably is where this election is the reason I would say to hold on these polls and see where things shake down in a couple of weeks. This has been an insane few weeks of politics. Insane, like I think you would struggle to find another historic period where as much has unfolded

in so short a time period. So on the one hand, you have Kamala Harris what the Trump people put on a Mama saying she's having her honeymoon period, right, And

I think that's true. I think people are projecting on her, including lefties, including the K I like everybody is projecting on her, who's left of center, whatever they want her to be, right, that is going to come into contact with reality at some point, and she's common here, She's going to have some moment that's awkward and not good and shows her not put in a riddle that those things are going to happen. So I do think she's in a honeymoon period. True, Trump is also in a

sort of honeymoon period post assassination attempt and post RNC. Right, yes, the speech was long or or whatever, but parties candidates almost always get a bump coming out of their own convention, and Trump has his approval ratings right now are the highest they've like almost ever been between the you know, the way he looks strong coming out of the assassination attempt and the rally round the flag sort of a dynamic there, and coming out of his own parties convention,

et cetera. So he also is in a sort of honeymoon period. So you know, once you get in to the slog of the campaign season, how do these things shake out? And the truth of the matter is, we really don't know at this point.

time of reflection. Right. Part of the reason I'm actually kind of happy I wasn't there is I actually got to sit and think, and I was like, this is crazy. I was like, this is this is actually what it was like to get married or and take some time off or whatever on nine seventeen or after nineteen sixty eight.

You know, my sympathy to all those people at that time because you're just sitting there and thinking, you know, especially for somebody who's success with history like me, and I'm going back to sixty eight in my head, and I'm going back to nineteen twelve or whatever in my head and thinking about third party candidates and the convention and all of the But then, you know, overlaying social media on top of that, the assassination attempt, and I mean,

have we really grappled with the fact that Trump was inches from death, Like not really and what what the you know, the true decision tree from that looks like. And then on top of old news, it literally is already old news. I mean, he's already a back out there, he's already on campaign trails, like barely even mentioning it. I mean, to a certain extent, there's a strength of democracy, right is that everyone's kind of just like, yeah, that was crazy. Hope we create some security, but you know,

the show must go on. I think that's good. But let's also sit and must ruminate a little bit and say, wow, we have a new candidate here for president. Literally everything is on the table. That's part of the reason why there is a honeymoon period, because we don't know a lot about this lady. I mean, she ran in a machine state in California. It takes some positions, but not really you know, as a center let's be honest, like you don't really do much. Anyways, she wasn't there that

long and then she was the vice president. She's been in a closet for three years. Last time a star on the stage was during the Democratic debate. Didn't do so well then, So it's like, now, what you know, who are you? And I think that's a real question too for Kamala And this is part of the reason that I think one of her political strengths. I don't think this lady believes it basically anything, And actually I

think that's to a benefit. You know, where you can become the chameleon for the moment of what you need to be well. And that is where I really want to see. Does she have good instincts or not? What are you going for? What are you going to try? And do you have to navigate some very tricky problems here? We've got Israel, Gaza, We've got abortion. How do we talk about abortion? How are we going to quote unquote prosecute the case against Trump? Are we gonna do it

with the cringeway. Are we gonna do it the way that a lot of normies do right this little bit of overlap, or we're going all in on MSNBC democracy stuff. Are we looking at our polling? Are we gonna make smart choices and our candidates now there's a countervailing evidence everywhere. Are we gonna pick good people? It's one of the most important things. She's had crazy staff turnover. One of the things I think against Kamala is this lady as bad judgment whenever it comes to staff.

I will be whoever you want me to be. That's who I am.

there's that. There's also the fact, as you said, where did she fail in the primary part of it was she was a terrible manager, and she could not put a campaign team together that could stay together, and she could not settle on a message. She doesn't have to do that. She has a campaign and she's taking over the Biden campaign team, right She's taking on the campaignage. So the HQ, the money's coming out, everything is just

like campaign in a box. Here you go. They've already decided what their messaging is and it's not hard to figure out they're going to do basically like these people are fringe, extreme, dangerous and abortion. And she's also trying to lean into some like you know of the Biden is like I'm going to be a candidate for the middle class she's talking about that as well. She already has a message set because that was the other knock on her campaign. Legitimate is that like she changed her

campaign slogans every season. Remember when he first campaign it said that is every season we had a new campaign slogan. So she eliminates the risk of that, like this is your message campaign in a box, Ready, set go. So I think all of those things are are to her benefit now. I just talked about how she's outperforming where Joe Biden was with young voters Israel, Gaza. How she handles that is one of the big big question marks. Everyone's reading the tea leaves right now, they're reading the

BB visit. We'll talk about that. The VP pick could have ramifications there. People are giving her a lot of grace right now, but even so, she's still underperforming where a Democrat should be with regard to young voters, and there is a lot of risk that she could screw up the You know, right now gen Z is like in love with her and meeting her like crazy, et cetera, et cetera. There's a lot of risk there that that

relationship could turn sour. So harry Onnsen broke down some of the data herealistic elisia what he had to say.

by just nine points. You may make the argument that was better than Biden was doing before he got out, but compared to that democratic baseline where Democrats have historically and presidential elections at least this century, been carrying that young vote by twenty or more percentage once, she is way down from that. So if this is unique support among young voters, I would like to know what non unique support? Is it even worse than this?

thirty nine percent. The thing I was interested in was it disproportionately younger voters who said that they were more likely to turn out or more motivated to turn out. And what we see here is it's forty two percent. Not a big difference between forty two and thirty nine percent. So this idea again that the vice president has unique potential to dig in and get young voters to turn out, John, it's just not there in the numbers, despite all the Internet memes that are going around.

going on. Or they were discussed with Joe Biden just because it was so frikin old, and now they're like, all right, well, this lady's not really old, so this is great, but there's still a lot of question marks there about whether she can truly put back together like the Obama style coalition that would be more her strength. You know, you said something about if you were her, you would go for Pennsylvania, you would just like go

all in on the industrial Midwest. I'm not one hundred percent sure because the demographics in those states they were good for Biden because he outperformed with like older white voters. Kamala's got a different got a different coalition mix, and you know she already we're seeing some numbers that show she's more in contention in those sun Belt states where Joe and Georgia in particular, where Joe Biden was not

really and they basically all but written it off. So again, I think it we have to see Holving shake off shake to see where her best tell you what potential path.

but I'm not going all in. And so when you look at the math and you look at the margins too, we have some state by state polling, maybe we can actually put this in afterwards. I'm just going to reference this is a new Hill Emerson Pole. It kind of bears out what I'm saying. If you look at Wisconsin, this has just came out this morning. They were in the field after the Biden drop out. Trump and Harris

are tied in Wisconsin. Trump is up by five in Arizona, He's up by two in Georgia, up by one in Michigan, and up by two in Pennsylvania. The tightest margin is in the industrial Midwest. You've got whit Merge. You can try and hold down the fourth there. In Michigan, you don't have the Gaza sink that you used to maybe, you know, if I were rum all away from it, you know, honestly, try not to even take a position that's gonna be tough. But you know, if anybody could

do it, it could be her. If you picked Shapiro or somebody like that for Pennsylvania. He's enormously popular governors.

Uh and you could try, you know, things there and we'll just see how things go. Whereas Georgia the Sun Belt, I just think the Sun Belt economically, there has never been more pessimism the Sun Belt today. And if you think too about who these new voters are, all the people who moved to Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and all these people are all blue refugees from New York and California, They're all going to be voting red. I think at

least they're going to be voting red. And so I wouldn't I wouldn't go all in there, but I need to see too some polling. I mean, I think Georgia. Georgia is the one state where I think it was totally lost nor Biden and is winnable now under Harris.

and even corruption plus thirteen. We can go to the next slide. This is from this same analysis of where Kamala Harris performs well on the issues and where she struggles.

It's not going to surprise you. The best issue for her net of trust Harris over Trump is reproductive rights than climate and environment, improving the healthcare system, reducing racial tension in the country, making sure everyone can get a good education, protecting social security like sort of a typical list of liberal priorities, and then at the bottom those same issues that dogged Joe Biden, securing the border, immigration, police, and crime, although she's only minus two on that, which

a little bit surprised about there as interesting. Maybe it goes back to her kut mala cut maladay.

least trying to work on that. I've seen Kyle talk about Tim Waltz. I mean, these are people that I would really want to work for, right and I would really want to I would want to put that forward because that is a contrast to the Trump, you know era, and to a real vision also post twenty twenty four, where with Kamala it's like, what are you gonna do? Biden, Plus it's like, okay, I mean, look great, but that's

not anything all that interesting. And so for her, I think it's I think it's just like I said earlier, it's gonna be the immigration economy election or it's going to be the abortion economy election, and it's gonna be a slog and it's gonna be a battle to the

death between those two. And the definition wars, I mean the amount of money that's going to be spent on Kamala crime, Kamala borders are Kamala open border on the Republican side, That's what I would do too if I was going up against her, because it is also probably the area where they genuinely disagree the most. And then you flip it on abortion. And you know, you've got JD who's got pass comments on abortion, and then you've got Trump who literally had Roe versus Wade overturned and

appointed those people. That is as good of a contrast as I could ask for. And that's also where you can make it. There's a famous you know, Barry Goldwater quote, the time for choosing that moment. This is a time for choosing on those two issues. So whichever you can get people to care the most about and define the other. On economy, I think they're kind of washed, frankly for both because you've decent hits against both. You know, Trump

on TCJA and extension, but he didn't have inflation. Kamala you've got you know, whatever she's promising middle class agenda. I don't know how much you believe that, but maybe and then you but you've also got inflation. On those two, I think they relatively cancel each other out. So those are the two issues that I think are define this elet.

really determining factor in the midterms. And so I think that's what that's what the Democrats are hoping. Those are the still the issues that control and end up being the most persuasive to swing voters, you know, wherever they may live. So I want to move on.

over McCormick. Dave McCormick is that his name? The Republican, So again you still still see swing state democrats out performing the top of the ticket, but it's a little better than what they were doing with Biden. It gives them a shot put b eight up on the screen. This was an analysis from Nate Cone over the New York Times, their data guy, how Kamala Harris changes the race. One thing she's it is a good piece. Three things

that he points to. Number one, the original dynamic was Trump being a change candidate Biden being very much not change candidate. Harris, he says, Democrats will have another chance to make the case they can improve the nation's fortunes. For one, she's neither Biden nor Trump. Two figures have been in public life for decades, So she feels like a breath of fashhair. That's my He didn't say that,

I'm saying that. For another, she's not the president. She might be burdened by voters perceptions of mister Biden's record, but she'll have room to distinguish herself. She even has room to argue for a new direction. The other thing he refers to is the return of the usual demographic divide. That some of what we've been talking about is she's returning to more of the Obama coalitional mold, better with young people, better with black voters, better with Latino voters.

And he said, they say the return of issues. You know, with Biden, the whole thing was just about like his age basically. And now there'll be a little bit more space than the conversation for an actual conversation about how these candidates would govern and what that governing agenda would look like. So we may see more talk of that with comm.

of days. But overall, I would say she's played her hand like pretty well from what I've seen so far, there's been a lot of Row versus wide. I think the campaign ad course speech is not bad. I think that the you know, the rally speech from what I've read, or at least of the excerpts and look normal. Her very first ad is now out. It's called Freedom. It's got Beyonce's Freedom or whatever, and it's all about you guessed it, democracy and abortion, which and Trump being a

convicted felon. So the playbook is here. Yeah, and you've got a ton of money. I also think I did we talk about the enthusiasm gap, because that was actually maybe it'd be the biggest change. The biggest change here, by far is the eight hundred and ninety six thousand people who donated to a Democrat for the very first time since Biden dropped out of the race. That's one in two hundred and ninety six Americans like, that's crazy, and famously has the most dedicated political coalition of all

time in modern politics. Now Kamala has got the ladies, and I'm never betting against abortion ladies at all. These people will and did crawl over broken glass to vote in twenty twenty two, and now they're you know, Biden is gone. The biggest worst deficit to them actually having enthusiasm. So now generic d that has real power. And if I'm Republicans, I'm worried as hell about that because this get to the ballot box, row row, row your vote.

I mean, if you're in you know, northern Virginia suburbs where I am. I mean, these people are fired up now, they are ready to vote. They hate Trump with a passion that many Republicans have discounted.

off balance. She has been very good. And the other thing she benefits from is she's not eighty years old, and the bar has been set. Think of the Biden speech last night, right, and then compare that to Colma, You're like, holy shit, this one's amazing, Right, But that gets he set the bar below the floor. So when she's able to deliver competently a democratic message and a democratic attack on Trump, with some energy and some vitality, and you have people who are actually excited to hear

from her. It feels so incredibly different than how things were before. And so I yeah, underestimate her at your peril because we all know what the weaknesses are. But Trump is now, Trump's age becomes in it, like he is an old man. He's almost eighty years old, right, and he's been in the public eye for a long people who are sick of he's got negative approval writing like he's got all the baggage that Trump comes with. So you know, there is she's got a genuine enthusiasm

behind her. And Ryan Mede at this point, I think he's right in a sense, the fact that she is a black woman. It's a benefit to her because Americans want to believe the mythology about you know, marching towards progress and equality, and they want to see themselves with the type of people who would vote for a black woman. And this was ended up being a benefit for Obama too, and so and I think we'll talk more about this

than the next block. But I think Republicans are a bit imperiled by how much they want to fixate on her race and gender as a negative, and so part of the enthusiasm for her is the sense of like, oh my god, like a black woman, and I see myself in you know what this means for the country, and what this means for you know, how we conceive

of ourselves. That's definitely a part of this, and it's a part of what makes her feel like this huge break from the Biden and Trump's blog that we were all looking towards space.

It doesn't matter to some people, it doesn't matter, like they're excited about this person looks different than what I expected. I didn't know if this would be possible. And I think Americans, like you said, including white Americans, like the idea of themselves as someone who's not racist and not sexist and would be willing to vote for this candidate.

And so I don't think you can say, like, oh, this, I think it's I think it's a benefit to her her identity characteristics, which is the polar opposite of the narrative you normally get about the country's two racism.

I just don't think it really matters. Like if I'm looking at it from who, it all is going to come down to who you're going to raise the most money from, Like, I don't think it's going to be what black sororities or black women organizing calls. I'd rather have the money than not. But it's not necessarily like going to turn anything. Will it have a lot of media attention paid to it. I just think it's a wash. Yeah, absolutely, especially with Trump. I mean, look at the amount of

enthusiasm he gets amongst white working class voters. I'd have that.

reaction like obviously it has. It has resonance good and bad among different segments of the population. But my only point is that the notion that we've been sold, we were sold after Hilly Clok the country's too sexist to vote for her, you know, we were sold during Obama like all the country maybe too racist to vote for him. That was obviously not true, and they did vote for him twice twice. Hillary Clinton was not sexism. That wasn't the rest I was on sexism. That was the reason

Kamala didn't do well in her primary. I think it's exactly the opposite. I think it's I think it's a benefit to her that she appears to be visually and her identity is such a break with you know, just the surface level identity of the contest as it was originally formulated. That that's that is part of why you have this flood of enthusiasm, donations, organizing all of those things that you're seeing right now.

about I wouldn't talk about it that way. But in general, let's just take it back to where we were in the beginning of this Uh, in the beginning of this show, which is if we're talking about suburban women in abortion, I would probably just avoid was.

be president. Many of these people are willing to do anything in order to ascend a power, and that's basically a requirement for the arrogance to think that you should be president. Okay, so let's leave it at that. Now. I didn't say that in a sexist way. Note that I just put it in exactly the same terms of many people who want to climb to the very top are willing to do anything to do that. So I

think in that context it's fine. Now, I would not put it in explicitly sexual terms the way that I don't know who that guy was the Fox Business his analyst.

like sluct shaming thing, I wouldn't do it personally. I think talking about it in in terms of what it reveals about character and background, I think that's totally on brand, And I think fine, you know, in the same way that I think the talking about Trump and his sexual promiscuity are, especially with sexual braggadocio in the past, reveals like obviously something insecure about him and about.

of my head. But my point is is that can we really trust like these boomers who are you know, or even people who are making hawk tool comments on national television talking about the vice presidential canon? Can we talk? Can we trust them to talk about it in a nuance and I think in a way that could possibly make it a hit for the American people. No, I can't trust them about it, especially on the sexual thing.

I would just let it be. I mean, look, like I said, when we've got Trump on the ticket to let's all just let's all call it even.

is not engaged in any of this, you know. But here's the thing, No, here's the thing that's ogur Like, let me put my moralizing aside, because I do think this is a disgusting thing to say about anyone. And I said the DEI thing too, well, I'm sure talk more about this, but whatever original like good faith critique of DEI programs that existed, which I share some of, by the way, Like it's clearly just become a term for a slur for like a black person with the job,

and that's the way it's been used typically. But the bigger problem with both the Hawktua thing and the DEI thing is it reveals this like super niche, overly online type of brain. That was why Vivek didn't do well

in his campaign. It was why Ron de Santis didn't do well in his campaign because they had these like niche online fixations, including a bizarre terminology that wouldn't even be familiar to most Americans, Like to the extent that most Americans would know the term DEI, it would be like black people who find it to be basically a slur, Black people who were increasingly open to a Republican message, by the way, or people are just like what do you I don't even know what that means, Like what

are you even talking about? So that's why Trump never uses He never talked about ESG, he never talked about DEI. He made fun of the fixation on wokeness because he saw it for being this like overly niche online concern that doesn't land for normi Americans. So outside of the fact that I think they're certain demographic groups that will find this type of language in tech repellent, I also think it's just like way too online.

publicly defined or used as something else? Does that mean you give up on the term?

m madness was happening. Jim Clyburn says, you got to pick a black lady, and he picked a black lady even though he didn't like her and she wasn't all that politically effective and failed in the primary. That is literally the EI.

come to mean. Whatever you might mean when you say it would, it has come to mean is a black person with the job?

because it's only used to talk about black people. But let me just say again, I encourage you to continue this line of attack. I encourage you to continue in this direction because not only is it off putting for a demographic group that you know was starting to be like somewhat open to Republicans, and I don't think just black people like Also, you have a lot, as you were saying before, you have a lot of like suburban white people who don't want to see themselves as racists.

If they're going to vote against Kamala Harris, they want like a non racial based or gender based reason to vote against her. So, you know, not only is it off putting, but again, part of the problem for Republicans in twenty twenty two was the sense of like, you guys are just out there, like you're weird. You fixate on this fringe stuff and all this DEI esg all this hyper online fixation. Talked to a girl like do you think my mom knows what that is. No, she doesn't, Okay,

So I encourage Republicans to continue in this direction. I think this is going to work out very well.

action was a good thing. Now calling her a DEI candidate again is empirically true when you utilize your race in the midst of the greatest racial hysteria in this country since the nineteen sixties and use that to cost your opponents, when your own record itself is one of political disaster in the campaign and you failed with black voters.

Because let me let me just add to this, because I was thinking about, all right, if I was gonna go after Kamala Harris, like, how would I do it? What would be the most effective thing? Because I think that we, you know, we have sort of a model for that because of the failure of her twenty twenty presidential campaign.

a political chameleon. And the sense of incompetence that came from, like the inability to run a campaign, her stumbles on the trail, et cetera, et cetera, so make that case, those things don't have anything to do with her being a black woman or a slut, right, this has to do everything with her own capabilities and where she's been and how she's been all over the place, And that

rings a lot more true. The other thing that, you know, this is very predictable, like the thing Trump is actually going with is ooh, she's radical left, she's radical liberal, etcetera. I think that's probably has more traction. Definitely does, and it's more over the target of of what would make sense, but it also effective. Attacks really have to ring true. And what rings a lot more true with Kamala Harris isn't that she is some hardcore, committed lefty ideologue. It's

that she doesn't believe in anything at all. So if I was going against Kamala Harris, I would leave her race and gender beside, because, like I said, people who want to vote against her, most Americans don't want to see themselves as explicitly racist or sexist, right. They want to have some other reason that they can point to that they're voting against her, other than that she's you know, a whore or a DEI pick. They want to have something they can point to that absolves them of any

potential implication of racism or sexism. So that's why I think these attacks, you know, I think they're just instantly repellent, off putting to certain groups, and I just don't think it's the most effective direction for Republicans to go to in terms of making a case against her. And there is a very clear case that can be made against I.

Ninety ten and eighty twenty is literally the difference between four hundred electoral votes and what two hundred and sixty, Right, That's part of the reason why Trump's meaningful gains. I mean, he's winning like eight or he's winning like fifteen percent of the black vote, but that's still a lot more than ten. So if the affirmative action line can you know, mobilize white working class voters in the industrial Midwest. It's

not a bad thing. And if you look at Hillbilly Elogy and what is it's the history of the Scotts Irish people. I'm forgetting Jim Webb's book. If you look at those two things, a core theme is about racial discontent and the obsession with Democratic elites of affirmative action.

And so I think JD as a line in Hillbilly Lergy something about you know, people on the floor being upset because somebody got promoted because they were black or Jim Webb has talked a lot about this in the past, by how affirmative action is one of the reasons that he left the Democratic Party. Then, pointing to the person who is literally only in I mean, can we acknowledge Crystal that she would not win an open Democratic primary like from in twenty and twenty.

they know is going to be a major issue. So, you know, I think the jd Vance vice presidential pick was a foolish one for this exact reason, because it's also just doubling down on a base that is already with you, Like you already have the enthusiasm of this group.

And again, to me, the fact that Trump, who is not you know, he is not above saying anything and you know, everything all the time when he thinks it serves him that he is not making these arguments, I think tells you a lot about the political foolishness of us going in the story.

primary election on the strength of his own name. And I don't think if anything, you know, if he had racial headwinds or whatever, it was far stronger in two thousand and eight, and he blew it out of the water. I don't think he was a de i cannet. He was never selected, he was never anointed, he was never given a position. He fought the Clinton establishment and he won. That's actually an inspiring racial story, and that's part of the reason why you can connect to that. That's why

white working class people can connect to that. Obama grew up his background, that was everything. Kama is a different story. I mean, she was selected because of her race, right, And I'm not gonna give I'm not going to just put away and say we're not allowed to say that that in my opinion.

that was never used against him. He was never called you know, his credibility, his you know, legitimacy in the position was never called into question. And Kamala Harris, I mean, you know, she won statewide in a large, very diverse,

very economically powerful state multiple times. Okay, so yeah, I'm not going to believe that what's his name, Willy brown Willy Browning, This one man cannot possibly be responsible for every single thing that happens every election that occurs in the state of California, like at some level, to the extent that there's any democratic process at play. She earned her stripes in the state of California. She won primary,

she won statewide multiple times she served in office. People got to evaluate her credentials, et cetera, et cetera, and she got put in as vice president in the same way that every vice president gets picked by nature of her demographic characteristics and who they thought she could appeal to. Now, I don't support I think it is racist to assume black people are going to vote for a black person just because of their identity. I think it is way

more complex than that. But you can't deny that. The whole discussion we're having around Commlin Harrison how she'll pick her VP is about their demographic care who they'll appeal to, and what their background is and all of those things. That's like just how vps get picked. So I don't think that's fair. I don't think it's fair for that to be held specifically against her when it's not held

against anyone else who doesn't happen to be black. And I also, like I said, I hope Republicans continue in this direction because I think it's a very ineffective, off putting, overly online attack. I think if you polled most of the public, they don't even couldn't even tell you what DEI even means.

for others. That's again why I at least revere Barack Obama as a political animal, using his background as both a black man as a black man and also his white mother and his grandparents growing up in Kansas to create a story that everyone could connect to that was genuinely inspiring. I I remember thinking about it at the time and to this day is one of those where everyone can But that's not necessarily unique about his race. Clinton was very effective in the same thing. He literally said,

like I grew up in a trailer park. I was trailer trash. And that's one of the reasons why they even called him at the time the first black president, which is stupid, but because he connected for a lot with black voters. So that's my point is that it's not about race per se, it's about connecting with what people feel icky about the other person. Now, one of the attacks against her is she was selected because of a race. He's never been truly tested in the fire

of democracy. Now, I think you're one state, okay, okay, okay, politician, you have to get elected.

a d buy your name and get elected. I don't remember anyone calling into question Joe Biden's credibility because of that. So that's why I just think it's I mean, I just think it's really very unfair, and I think it is a foolish. I think it's a foolish direction go in and it makes it explicitly, it explicitly racializes the argument against her, and I don't.

what she's going to do. I think the fact that she hasn't stood for anything, and even after all these years in politics, I have no clue what this woman actually believes. I think that's a problem. But for her to talk about her identity and for people to aspirationally want to yeah, I mean that was part of the appeal Baraco. Remember how excited people weren't and you was elegd in two thousand and or you were a baby,

but they were excited. Even people who weren't really Democrats or didn't even vote for they were excited because of what it said about the country.

I can't, I'm not. I can't be the only one who was further radicalized on race as a question of that in terms of being explicitly against racialism in American politics.

culture and all this stuff. And then Republicans flip the script because they got so obsessed with wokeness that it seems like you guys are the ones who are obsessed with this stuff. And it's the same dynamic now, Kama Harris is out there talking about like, you know, the normal democratics, abortion and middle class, about all this stuff,

and Republicans are out here making explicitly racialized case. I think, to a country that really prefers a color blind self perception, at the very least, they find the explicitly racialized arguments when they were made by democrat but now when they're being made by Republicans to be off putting, repellent and

non and not appealing. That's what I think, because I do think that like the colorblind view, where you're not obsessing over these demographic characteristics, is far more salient, far more reflective of like the aspirational place Americans want to be. And so when it's Republicans who are the ones who are talking about, you know, racial characteristics, they're the ones in danger of sort of violating that precept of oh, we're, you know, supposed.

what like what just happened here? So I will I am skeptical that this will have the negative effect because, like I said, I think there are a lot of people out there. I mean, the affirmative action thing that was very popular for most people whenever it was struck down.

So this is somebody who also she always talked about her diversity in her office, Like you can't both believe in that and then get upset whenever it's used against you. Now, if I were her, I agree, I would only talk about abortion in middle class issues. But I have no doubt that she, especially if not her, the media and

her surrogates will also make it into a thing. And I'm just not convinced yet that the backlash now would say used DEI I would say affirmative action and against racialism specifically, which I think Democrats are the people who mostly use that rhetoric and have dominated the conversation now for a long time. I think pushing back against that is potent, has been for I can only speak for myself. I don't I don't know. We've only been here now

for a week. I find it repellent that she was selected for that reason.

her demographic characteristics. So why is it repellent when it's a black woman pick for her characteristics, and it's not repellent when it's a white man picked for his characteristics because.

black people. It's no problem when a white dude gets picked because he's a white dude, or an evangelical dude gets picked because he's an evangelical dude, or he's picked fro because he's from Pennsylvania or whatever, that's no problem. That's fine, and isn't a mark against them. And so it's just it's just a blatant double standard. And like I said, listen, you can make the case all you want.

It's fine. I have no issue with it. Make the case, but I think Republicans run a real risk of being seen as the party that is racial obsessed with race in the election. And you're right, the party that seems like they're obsessed with race like Democrats did with the Can Take All and all that stuff, right the party that seems like they are obsessed with identity characteristics is in a poor position. And right now it's the Republicans who seem much more obsessed with her being a woman

and being a black woman. And I don't think it's wise for them.

so I think for young voters it doesn't. I think they're watching very closely what Kamala Harris does and says in these next few days, and I think that is consequential for her in terms of being able to put together that sort of recapture some of the Obama coalition, but for a broader general electorate to the extent that it matters at all, it's the sense of like, why are you fixated on these why are you obsessed over these foreign countries when you know we got a lot of problems here.

Pennsylvania is a must win state. Number two on the list is Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. I personally, I don't think she's going to pick Mark Kelly because if he was gone, then that would open up a competitive Senate seat in a battleground state where it's been a bit of hit or miss for Democrats so far. Number three is apparently a North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. Now, apparently her and Cooper go way back, both serving as

AG's and have some experience together. That would put him possibly higher on the list, since this is such a crazy time that you definitely want somebody that you might be comfortable with comfortable with. Next is Kentucky Governor Andy Basheer. He's been all over television in the last couple of days attacking JD. Vance really auditioning himself for the job. He was also what is he the most blue governor of a red state in the whole country.

So what are we getting. We're getting a sense of governors boring from the Midwest, people who are popular in their home states and can bring it home at least in the battlegrounds with some of these white working class voters. And we'll see. There's another list that is out there of some twelve people that are allegedly on the list. Let's see who am I missing from the list that

I spoke out. Okay, so the outside team is being vetted by Eric Holder some of the other people that are on the list that I missed here, I think what was it. Tim McRaven was on the list, or Admiral he removed himself. Okay, here we go. Gina Raymondo, the current Commerce Secretary Transportation Budajig. I would not do that one, and Arizona Kelly Yes. At the same time, given his electoral track record last time in a South Carolina results, that's not some what I was gonna pick.

I don't think he did well enough in Iowa to prove that he has a real constituency outside of like hardcore Democrats, he doesn't have electoral sense really in the past, and I don't think he's got enough crossover appeal or coalition support to actually bring them in the same when you compare him to a governor like our governor, battle tested in the election, high approval rating, actually an executive, someone you can picture in the job, someone who Democratic

voters know I would pick a governor if I were Pete.

That means he probably won't get picked. My assumption is that the person that you know, I want to be at the least, which is probably Joshuapiro, is likely to get the nod. And I mean the electoral calculatory. I understand from their perspective like, oh, it's Pennsylvania and he won by a lot. However, I think there are also risk factors with him that they are probably likely to overlook. Which is, as I've mentioned a few times, I think people are watching very closely right now what Kamala says

and does with regard to Israel. Big part of the reason why Joe Biden was performing so poorly with young people was about Israel and the genocide in Gaza. She's getting a little bit of grace on that. And Piro was very outspoken with regard to the college protests, and he took a lot of action to quash the college protests, and he compared palistating protesters to pro Palestine protesters to

the KKK. That's a hard thing to get past. He's also has a lot of skepticism from unions because he was aggressively pro charter school in the state of Pennsylvania as well. So while I understand the electoral calculus with it being you know, Pennsylvania and him being popular, and he's you know, he's good on camera, and he does all the politician ethings well, et cetera. And he has some policy track record that I would be amenable to.

David Sarato points as you know, track record of holding power to account at certain times, that's going to be a tough pill for people who really care about Israel Gaza to swallow. So I think there's a risk that she undercuts the high level of like excitement and enthusiasm and democratic unity that she's benefiting from her.

Joe Biden anyways, a lot less. But now, because she's so undefined, all she has to do is like kind of not taken a real stance on the issue, and she's kind of the beneficiary of both. That's what I would do if I were her. I'll tell you this about Josh Shapiro, the man. All he knows how to talk about is abortion, and he's good at it. So my sister in law showed me his TikTok account this guy has got hundreds of thousands of TikTok followers. Every single thing he posts is about abortion, and I hate

to say it, it's good. He actually does well. You know, he does the blinking meme where he's like me whenever Republicans are trying to pan abortion, he's like, blink, blink, blink, and it's got hundreds of thousands of views, and it's like me when republic are radically trying to throw a national abortion man, he's like fifty versions of that. Of that, he's quite talented at it. I mean, he's one of those where I think he messages correctly on the issue.

And so if I were her and I'm just I'm focusing in on two hundred and seventy one electoral votes, I think he's probably the best pick. Especially she's less connected to Israel Gaza. You can have whitmerk and bring it home for you in a similar way, especially to Stump, you're more undefined on the issue, and you know, at the end of the day, what we're really talking about here a million people are so we're going to vote on Israel Gaza. There's probably going to be one hundred

million people who cast their votes. Now, if you do it in the right way strategically, it was going to make an impact. But it's not Biden. It's just different. Whenever it's not the guy who literally, you know, Bear hugged Nanta. It's just fundamentally it's very different.

the bill. But I don't know that I don't think so either, But I don't know that. I don't know how. Yeah, people have been saying that, I don't I don't know if that. I don't know how they're looking at it. I don't think it matters either.

even though Kentucky obviously not a swing state. I feel like Roy Cooper has a good shot at it because they have that long personal relationship. I don't know how she's looking at the choice. If I was making the choice, I would want someone that I knew and like outside of just this two week time frame. I'm not sure who else she may have that personal relationship with. But I know Roy Cooper. She's done a number of events

with him here. They know each other from the time when they were ages is much more in terms of he's a very safe and cautious politician in terms of North Carolina, and he also has been very successful in a state that is pretty much read. Could they potentially put in North Carolina in play? I think possibly. Biden only lost it by like less than two percentage points least time around, So maybe with some of the demographic shifts that having Comma at the top of the ticket

potentially pretends that's a possibility. The downside with him is Democrats are looking at hey, this guy could run for Senate in North Carolina, have a shot down the road, and you are taking him off the board for that. So I don't know if that's a factor. I'm not sure Mark Kelly could put D two up on the screen.

One of the issues that the left and a lot of labor unions have had with Mark Kelly is he was one of the only Democrats who had not signed on to the pro Act, which is, you know, the sort of like comprehensive pro labor legislation that Democrats under the Biden administration were pushing. Now, under pressure, he's like, oh, no, no, no, I of course I support it. Of course I would

vote for it. Okay, there are other reasons that unions are concerned about him as well, some nominees pro labor nominees that he voted against and had issues with, So it's outside of just the pro Act, but that was kind of the most glaring issue for him. But in terms of his pick, I think your right SoC are. The biggest problem for him is are they really going to want to take his put his seat into play in Arizona and you know risk that. I think that's that's a problem for me.

we know their politics. There's news out this morning that read Hoffman apparently gave seven million dollars to Kamala and was like, well, you got to fire Lena Kahan, you know if something like that happens. So they're making their plays too, and Kamala may actually be more donor dependent, maybe as much donor dependent as Trump now at this point, because she's late to the game and she's got to

make up some of this cash. She's got the hundred million, but she's gonna need a billion point probably a one point five billion to contend with the Republican superPAC machine. So the money, while it is there, there are certain things that come with that price. And because she was anointed and will be a product of super Delegac and more at the DNC, those donors are probably going to have even more of an outside impact on the VP selection.

So that's why, you know, if you look at their ideology too, in the way they look, that's not a bad case to make.

it'll be interesting. Like I said, my working assumption is whoever I want the least is going to end up in it. So that would probably be Joshuah Baby Net Now who in town right now? Today's meeting with Biden and Kamala Harris. Tomorrow he's flying or tonight or whatever. He's going to meet with Trump. In mar A Lago yesterday giving a speech to Congress. There were a number of Democrats, about half the Democratic Caucus boycotted the speech. And you had a whole lot of protest activity in advance.

We can put some of this up on the screen so you can get a sense. You had huge march. You see lots of Palestinian flags everywhere. You had some very you know, tense uh scenes with cups and tear gas. Here they are burning I think that maybe maybe net yahoo in effigy, and then they also burned an American flag there was, so they were they were out in

full force. They've been out the day before, h inside the Capitol building as well, so they were you know, making their mark and making their statement about their upset that this war criminal was in town. We also can put this up on the screen. Some of the activists actually got into the Watergate hotel where the net Yahoo coalition was staying and put these bugs and maggots.

to this man who's you know, israelied. CJ just ruled they have in apartheid state, the West Bank settlements are illegal. He's got ICC arrest warrants hanging over his head for the crime of extermination, but that did not slow the enthusiasm for his address to this joint session of Congress. Let's take a listen to a little bit of what he had to say.

Not that many, but they're there and throughout the city. Well, I have a message for these protesters. When the tyrants of Tehran who hang gaze from cranes and murder women for not covering their hair are praising, promoting, and funding you, you have officially become Iran's useful idiots. And as we recently learned, they even brazenly threatened to assassinate President Trump.

And some of these protesters hold up signs proclaiming gaze for Gaza, they might as well hold up signs saying tickets for KFC.

on the Screenman wore a suit. I can't do it for, you know, his own constituents, can't do it for apparently his wife was like embarrassed by him and wearing his like tuxedo shirt. He can't do it for his family, or's wife, or his own president or party or what. I don't know. But when Bibi Natya, who comes to town, suddenly Fetterman breaks out the suit.

And when you were willing to put a suit on for the Israeli Prime minister over your own constituents, it is about serving your true master, and about signaling to the world about what you find important to the world, which was both your comfort when it's about Americans, and it's about respect only for foreign leaders, which I think is absolutely not so obviously, Look, I agree with you. I think it's disgraceful to have a foreign leader of any nation invited to the United States to openly trash

American citizens. I think there is only one country in the world that is somehow allowed to do that, and that is Israel. Obviously, Natta Yahu and others. I will say, Chris Lenelis, can you make them out about this one. I wouldn't be burning American flags here in the Washington Capitol. Didn't say it should be illegal. But people will really recall that that what was the unc frat incident of defending the flag. That's going to ignite a lot of people, you know, who are going to get very upset.

pro Palestine is anti America itself. The positive thing you want to say is that it is to the best of America, or it is against American interests to phrase it about this country and not make it oppositional to actual American patriotism, to be opposed, because I do think that there are a lot of people out there. For example, if you don't want Joshapiro to be picked on Israel, don't be burning American flags in the middle of the US capital. It's just a foolish mistake. It's kind of

like the River to the Sea thing. Can you say it? Sure, you know, absolutely, But I think Dave Smith always makes that point. He's like, guys, that's not what we're trying to do, Like, we're not trying to change minds here. So if I were them, I always think that I always think that they just go too far. A lot of the vandalism and a lot of the burning of the flag thing, it just doesn't make the point that you guys want to make, and it just makes it even more of a minority. Now the White House is

out trashing you. It's just like I don't know, I don't I don't really see how that's possibly working to your benefit when I mean, all you have to do is point out the fact this guy, like the correct thing is he comes to this country undermines our freedom of speech. That's a much more potent attack. Now, I just think it's stupid.

like I can't really disagree. I think what has been very effective is when you have these groups of Jewish Americans who are there, who are you know, very visible and you know, are very organized and hostage.

guilty of genocide. So she did her own protests there, which I fully support. We had a large number of Democrats who did not attend. We can put this next piece up on the screen. One hundred House Democrats twenty eight Senate Democrats were present in the chamber for the Prime Minister's speech, meaning around half of both caucuses were absent.

This was really no worthy Sagura. I wonder what you make of this for Nancy Pelosi, she says, Benjamin Etnia, whose presentation in the House Chamber today was by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege addressing the US Congress. Many of us who love Israel spent time today listening to Israeli citizens whose families have suffered in the wake of the October

seventh hamas terror attack and kidnappings. These families are asking for a ceasefire deal that will bring the hostages home, and we hope the Prime Minister would spend his time achieving that goal. Obviously it's Nancy Felosi, so she's clearly, we have recently learned very powerful. So the fact that she says this number one, it's noteworthy because I think in the same way when she went on Morning Joe and was like, oh, we're waiting for Joe Biden to

make his decision, she opened the floodgates. She gave permission to the rest of the caucus to mount criticism of him and come out against him, and you know, really kept the flame alive in terms of pushing him out. I think this is a similar signal of like, Joe

Biden's a lame duck. Now, yes, you know, so all of the impetus of we got to keep quiet because we don't want to we don't want to show up the Democratic president, we don't make him look bad, we don't want there to be any distance between us and them, I think that's kind of out the window now. And for her, who has been a staunch ally of Israel for so long to say something this stark, and she also didn't attend the speech. I do think it's granting

a permission structure and is a noble shift. And I you know, also think it could be reflected in some of the ways that Kamala Harris herself tries to at least give the appearance of distance from a Biden policy that has been wildly on the top store.

who are like, I am not pro BB. I am meeting with these Israeli hostages. I'm allying myself with the families and the center left parties or whatever of Israel. But I'm not like, you know, chanting from the rezard of the sea, and you know, vandalizing and burning the flag. So this is where I think if I'm Harris, this is where I'm going. I'm going straight down them to the center. And I think this is I mean, frankly, this is the political center. If you look at the

polling on the issue. People are pro Israel in a like, yeah, they should have a right to exist way, but antibbe and anti prosecution of the war. This is exactly where you are. Yeah, they're pro seas fire. They're like, I think the war is bad. I think what you've done is terrible. I don't think America should necessarily be funding it. And yeah, I think that's mostly you know where we're at. And so the Pelosi thing, what can we always say

about this woman. She's smart, she knows how to triangulate. So if I'm Harris, this is exactly the tactic that I'm on. And then you have Trump and Vance, who would be to the right here, And that's fine, you know for right wing boomers, okay, but you know, for anybody to be swayed on the issue, then obviously you're

going to go Kamma. And if you try and capture both the left and the center, and you just leave the right to Trump, then any political benefit to Trump is just going to be money and then whatever Boomer voters who are going to vote on the issue anyway. So anyone who can be captured, I think you can get there with this.

The reason why I have been cautiously optimistic she would be I'm not listen, I'm very realistic about what's possible in the context of American politics. But why I think she could be better than Biden is because I don't think she's ideological, and I think at this point just a cost benefit a sheerly cynical cost benefit analysis of

the politics, as reflected by Pelosian. What you said soccer would land you in a different place than where Biden has been and her you know, top foreign policy advisor is more of like of the Obama more progressive foreign affairs when she's already said she's gonna Sordi reporter, she's going to clean house in terms of the Biden you know, Jake Sullivan, Tony Blinken's of the world. That's all positive indicator. But like I said, it's not like I'm expecting any

sort of her from Kamala. Ayris that you'll be waiting your whole life if you're waiting on that. But I think the clear eyed, reasonable political calculation at this point is that the Biden bear hug policy is doing more harm than good for them politically. And I think Nancy Pelosi that's why her comments are so noteworthy, because I think this is a sign that she also has that assessment of where the politics of this are at this time.

go ahead and strike Russia. Something that zed Jalani said, which I think is a deeper in Moscow, right, And something that zed Jelani said which is so deeply true, is that if you look at Clinton and all of the other no foreign policy experienced people, almost always they end up being more hawkish to prove to Washington. So on Israel, you're right, the consensus has moved away, right, yeah, But on Ukraine that is terrifying. On anything related to I mean, on Iran even I would not I would

be worried. I actually would be worried because you know, let's look, the Iran dealer is now ed. No matter who gets elected, now they're going to have to deal with new enrichment and sanctions and all that. On Russia, I'd be worried a little bit on China as well, in terms of how it looks, especially where our domestic manufacturing is. So on foreign policy, I am still in wait and ce mode, just because it's like you said, when you're a blank slate, I'm just going to color

in the lines of conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom right now is basically where we are. I think on Israel I would see yah. But on Ukraine it's frankly worse than I think it's ever been. Now they're like, oh, they're winning and everything. So I'm still very, very skeptical my view about where it's at right. My view is on Israel she may be a little better. Yeah, On Ukraine she's probably the same.

over what we've gotten under Joe Biden. But you're right to say this is all guesswork because we don't know and she doesn't make it clear, and I think it's the one consistent with Kamala Harris is just that she is a political shape shifter. You know, she is what she needs to be in the moment based on how she's reading the tea leaves at the time. You know, originally she's the tough on crime lady in California. This is just emblematic of the sort of political shift she's undergone.

Then she's you know, the criminal justice reformer when she's in the Senate, when she's running for present and thinks that's to her political benefit. She's for Medicare for all when she thinks she's going to try to get to the left and that's the best lane in the Democratic primary, than when donors are like, we don't like that, She's like, I don't like it either. So she's a shape shifter, and you know, it's it's all. She doesn't even know really what she thinks about it.

if he flew it on the days too. So in addition, it appears that around three point fifty pm, four o'clock in that window on the day of the shooting, that the shooter was flying the drone around the area eleven.

and what's not. I mean, I've even read crystal about anti drone jamming technology in war zones or being used by Mexican drug cartels, so they have better jamming tech or a prison or something like that. How do they know and have better tech than for the president's rally? That's crazy, I mean the whole thing. And then I've been reading a little bit about how the Secret Service

admits that they denied resources to Trump. That's I mean, just I mean, frankly outrageous, just because when we look at now what the threat environment was like and how their level of incompetence here has been manifested with their lack of questions. The lady didn't even want to resign until now. I mean, I just think this agency truly needs to be rooted top to bottom. It is clear

over the last two decades they have failed dramatically. Yeah, and every sign has been there, the Columbia Hooker thing, the multiple Obama failures where somebody shot at the White House and they didn't notice until broken glass was found later somebody jumped the fence was able to get in. I'm trying to think more. There's been a few other episodes, Carol Leining. I think over the Washington Post has detailed

all of this. I think in every instance it's clear Congress has got to take over and they completely need to gout this thing.

at assassination. Let's take a listen to director right here.

of mind. That is the same day that it appears that he registered for the Butler rally.

that it was a massive security failure. Now that we learn about every single instance, and the only true miracle in this shot or in this is not the shot itself, is that Trump turns his head at the last minute and survives and doesn't get his head bullet. You know, we don't get a pink misshot on national television and high definition. I can't imagine what the country would look like in something like that. I know, Oh god, God, be horrible. We also can talk about the Secret Service director.

Let's put this up there on the screen, finally resigning after being pressured by the both members of the House Oversight Committee. I do want to say, I want to give commendation. You know, rarely will cheer for bipartisanship. This actually is the one moment where Jamie raskin Rocanna, you know, comer Republicans Democrats. Everybody was like, oh no, absolutely not.

They're like, you got to go. Probably some of it is self interest in that all of them have also had threats to their lives, but part of it is also I mean again, like let's live in the context of the Pink misshot on TV. That's great, we can't unsee that as a nation like period. The Zuppruto film was way after. I mean to live with that, the consequence the trauma like the Greathing and the RNC and everything that would have possibly happened. I mean, I know

somebody who said civil war. I don't know if that's necessarily true, but something, I mean, you know, something horrible would have happened. So I want to at least commend them for in Washington. It is so rare to see accountability. Now we don't start here. It's a good starting point. This isn't just the finishing thing or whatever. But at least they actually came together and they're like, no, we're not stand for this.

not end. But the fact that she remained for even a day after this all unfolded, especially when we immediately were learning about the stunning nature of the security failure, and she had the temerity to go on TV and say, well, we didn't position eight speakret service stations on that roof because it was sloped right where there's a safety isshue. Oh my god, yeah, believable.

we need to stop stoking conspiracy. It's like, yeah, but people believe I think rightfully that usually security is pretty good at these things.