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We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We're going to get right into the news day because things are moving very very quickly, say the least.
We are going to have Professor Jeffrey Sachs join us later in the show, so really looking forward to that. Emily is going to go through some of the key clips from our interview with Tucker, but yeah, we want to just jump right in because things are moving so incredibly quickly. This morning, Donald Trump coming out guns blazing, threatening both Israel and Iron not to violate a ceasefire
that he helps a broker yesterday. I'm going to play the full comments here so you can really get a full sense of what is going on, and then after that I'll back up and we'll walk you through exactly how we got to this point. Go ahead and take a listen.
Agreement.
Do you believe that a ron so for many to see?
Yea, I do.
They violated it, But Israel violated it too. Israel as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped the load of Bob's the likes of which I've never seen before, the biggest load that we've seen. I'm not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, okay, now you have twelve hours, you don't go out in the first hour. It just drop everything you have on them.
So I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with Iron either, But I'm really unhappy if Israel's going out this morning because the one rocket that didn't land, that was shot perhaps by mistake, that didn't land, I'm not happy about that. You know what we have, We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing. Do you understand that.
On a suppering apprograle.
I mean Iran will never rebuild a duklin from there, absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished. The b two pilots did their job. They did it better than anybody could even imagine. They hit late in the evening, it was dark with no moon, and they hit that target with every one of those things. And that place is gone. But when I see CNN all night long, they're trying to say, well, maybe it wasn't
really as demolished as we thought. There was demolished, and you take a look at the pinpricks and you see that place is gone. And I will say, I think CNN or to apologize to the pilots of the V twos, I think that MSD and ZO to apologize.
So very habit present saying he is very unhappy with Israel dropping a load of bombs, also saying that he thinks these are two countries that have been fighting for so hard and so long, they don't know what the f they're doing dropping.
The F bomb here.
This comes on the heels of a whole lot. I'll just go ahead and put up the or read through the true social posts that have come out just this morning. Again, this is in the context and I'll show you all of this in just a moment of a ceasefire deal that the President announced yesterday evening.
So first thing we.
Got this morning is President Trump posted, Israel, do not drop those bombs. If you do, it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home now, Donald J. Trump, President the United States. Next, he posted, Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home. While doing a friendly plane wave. He puts in quotes to Iran, nobody.
Will be hurt.
The ceasefire is in effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter. And then the latest one that we gotten, by the way, recording this at eight oh eight am this morning. This is from about half an hour ago. Iran will never rebuild their nuclear facilities. And that was the other significant part saga of what the President was insisting on there and his rant and screen against CNN and MSNBC, DNC as he was calling it is the fact that insisting that the nuclear facilities that we bombed
were completely obliterated. I think this being significant because he wants to be able to claim that something was accomplished with this incredibly dangerous and escalatory mission that he engaged in.
Yeah, before look, I mean I think even before we get to the macro. It's really just worth ruminating on the last twelve hours because originally we had the ceasefire. We can actually put that up on the screen, A one please, just to show everybody this is how things started out. Congratulations to everyone. It's been fully agreed there'll
be a ceasefire. Then this is the confusing part. Officially, Iran will start the ceasefire, and upon the twelfth hour, Israel will start the ceasefire, and upon the twenty fourth hour, an official end to the twelve day war will be saluted by the world. Now, immediately after that, there was some confusion and some reporting that came out as to whether it was all even true. Putting a two please up on the screen so you can see it was like Trump, Israel, and Israel and around agreed to a ceasfire.
Then Iran, we have not received any cspire proposal. Israel,
we are declining to comment on any ceasfire. Iran says they have agreed to the US proposed cease fire, but they proposed a different timeline than the one that was offered by Trump three thirty am Jerusalem time, and initially then we see reports that Israel actually carries out its strongest strikes ever of the entire campaign, all across the city of Tehran, something that Trump mentioned in his tirade saying, who in the first hour of ceasefire goes in there
and blows it up. We were like, oh, interesting, you know, we're starting to pay attention a little bit here to what these Israeli strikes actually are going to do. Then what happens is that the Iranians fire missiles also after their so called four am deadline that their own foreign minister announces last night, actually a significant amount of missiles for civilians were killed inside of Israel, was a significant amount of damage. Then this was roughly three hours before
we're filming. The IDF announces that they are going to a bliter or eight Tehran. They're going to strike back the warmant. The war Cabinet approves itv Ben Gavier posts one of those things being like, you guys asked for it, We're coming for you. Is IDF jets are literally over the skies of Tehran, and then Trump walks out onto the South Lawn and that's where he gives his tyrone, the tyrate.
They don't know what the fuck they're doing. I'm very upset with.
Israel orders Israel by truth social to stop. And so that's where things stand as for right now. It has been like an absolutely insane twenty four hour period. But yeah, let's then take a step back and actually look analytically at everything that's This is the fakest end of a conflict and beginning of a conflict of all time. So Israel and we haven't even gotten to the fact that the Iran, you know, launched fourteen missiles at a US air base in.
Qatar, our largest airbase in the region, the.
Largest airbase in the region, a huge logistics hub. I've talked a lot about it yesterday. Actually, can we put some of the vo of that place a seven guys.
Can we go in and show it to everybody?
You got some US service members that are cheering all the Patriot batteries and the show. I mean, it's pretty surreal. As people know, I went to high school in Guitar, so it's pretty insane. Literally, I've been to that air base, you know, I went to high school there. I knew some people who still live in the country. It's pretty wild that the airspace was closed. You know, Qatar Airways one of the largest carriers in the world, turning planes around in the middle of the sky.
It was a very dangerous situation. So that is happening.
Immediately afterwards, the Iranians, it basically the news comes out that they coordinated their strike with Qatar and gave a heads up to the United States. It was a very very calibrated response. It was the off ramp. Trump takes the off ramp and he's like, thank you Iran for giving us a heads up about the strike. There's been no damage here at the airbase, no Americans were killed. Now it's time for world peace. So Iran executes a fake attack on America. America does basically a fake claim.
We get to pretend that Iran's nuclear program is gone. This is all of fugazy, let's all be honest. Yeah, and then Israel gets to, I guess, pretend that this was really about the nuclear program and not about regime change this entire time. So it's just it's a fake It's fake literally all around. Everyone is pretending at every level. I mean, the truth is is that the Iranian nuclear program and the uranium stockpile remains intact despite whatever they
want to claim. I still the Vice President on Fox News me like it's been buried and actually it's no longer a problem. There's an act literally non a scrap of evidence to back that up. In fact, all arms Control people are saying, actually, we know exactly where it is, and they do have still some secret facilities. They're roughly three to five years away likely from being able to create a nuclear bomb if they wanted to. In fact, the strategic logic of doing so probably has never existed.
More on the Israeli side, I mean, it's pretty obvious that from day one none of this was really about the nuclear weapons program because they're blowing up half of the regime and executing all of these people, Okay. And then again on the Iranian side, I mean, look, we can't. You know, it's like it's been embarrassing for them as well. I mean, they had their entire command and control basically exit,
you know, basically infiltrated by Mosad. Yes, they were able to establish some credible ballistic missile deterrment, but they had their whole air defense systems that were wiped out. And the reason they took their off ramp is because at the end of the day they were getting pounded and they were at serious risk.
I think Iranians, I mean, they weren't the ones on the on ramp to start with, so like for them to take the off ramp, it was because they didn't want this war to begin with.
That's also the strategic logic of this, where you know, on the one hand, iran is a regime of Nazis who chant death to America, but then on the other they are a restrained and rational party giving you know, heads up to the United States of America as Israel and taking the first chance at an off ramp are So which one is it?
Can we hold on that point because I want people to really think about this. I want you to think about the way that the Iranians have been portrayed in mass American media, certainly my entire.
Life, as this Nazi esque.
Belligerent regime that the moment they got a nuke was going to come and blow up New York City. Right, That's how we're supposed to understand them, But not only in this conflict.
Okay, let's be really clear.
The Iranians are the ones that de escalated and created the possibility of de escalation because our actions of dropping a dozen bunker buster bombs on their nuclear facilities, our actions were incredibly inflammatory in escalatory. Their reaction to that was to tell us, hey, listen, we got to do something in response to this, but here's where it's going
to be, Here's when it's going to be. So we can just do a performative strike that is not going to actually cause any damage, which it didn't, and certainly no casualties, which it also didn't, so that we have a chance at taking the tensions down incredibly. Look, I mean,
I'm not sure it was the right to decision. In fact, I think if there's any critique strategically just tactically of the Iranian government, it's actually that they've been too weak in response to provocations, especially the provocations from Israel and also the you know, provocations from Trump in his first term when he assassinated cost him solo money. What he learned from that is there's no price to be paid from messing with them, and so that's, you know, if
anything tactically that would be the critique of them. And yet we're supposed to believe that they are hell bent on getting a nuclear weapon and that the second they do, they're going to drop it on Kansas or Missouri or New York City or whatever. This is preposterous. It's total and complete nonsense. The people who have been behaving like the biggest maniacs, psychopaths and completely rogue regime that do actually have a secret nuclear program are the Israelis. They
are the provocateurs here. Now listen, Trump does not get off the hook. He decided that he wanted to engage with Israel in this incredibly stupid, foolish danger is game. And now he's pretending, to your point about the fakery, he's pretending, Oh, we obliterated their nuclear birth.
Okay, look that's what we know.
That's what you mean to pretend, and we're to get it. Sure.
But the reality is, what have we in those of us who are living in the real world, what have we actually gained. What we've actually gained is we provided more incentive for the Iranians to pursue a nuclear weapon. We have allowed Israel to You know, you give those people an inch, they take a mile. If you think this is it and it's over, and it's done. You think BBN Yahu is about to wake up today and say, you know, regime change in Iran. I don't really need that.
I'm good.
You know now that they drop their bunker busters and the nuclear program is not at all does mean I'm good. I can just sit back and it'll be fun. No, he and his allies, of which he has many in this town. As Lord knows we've seen and the media, he and his allies will keep pushing, keep pushing. There will be another. Oh, Iran violated the ceasefire. Now we have to bond this. This will not be the last time,
because they roll out this playbook every single time. I don't know if there's ever been a ceasefire agreement that Israel has agreed to that they haven't had happen.
In Lebanon exactly.
And look, I mean this is again why this hole Maga cope is driving me crazy because what you're watching here is not some grand master plan. It is utterly schizophrenic. And we know this. I even know it. I've spent the last two weeks of my life on the phone. And it's ironic because they're like, oh, we trusted the plan all along, and I'm like, do you want to know who didn't.
Trust the plan?
A massive number of people with top secret security clearance working in national security in this White House situation room or around it in the Pentagon and the State Department, in the intelligence community, who thought that we were this close to the brink of war because of the capricious nature of the way Trump has done this. Remember, let's just look again at the public statements just from the
and again there's no actually, there's really no plan behind this. Initially, America has nothing to do with the strike because it's a yellow light, and Trump gets excited, and then we're going all in. We're actually okay with all of it, and then America is gonna come in. We give him a two week pause, but actually bomb them. After two days, we demand unconditional surrender, and we sign a cease fire
within forty eight hours of after bombing them. What it's like, by your own admission, literally nothing of what you said makes any sense. The diplomacy was used as a ruse, and then you demand region and then you're saying we're gonna have regime change.
So what happened to unconditional surrender? Which is it?
And This is exactly the problem is that the israelis having a major strategic opening here if they need it. Trump is angry because he didn't get his pr win initially. Now they get to go right back to work on him, just like they did with the negotiations. Remember, if this does not end today, Trump wants a to end today, But what will happen already today?
Trump wants it.
So. Trump wants it exactly. Trump wants it to end today. He's like, we will now have peace for all time. He literally said that.
I'm not joking. I'm like, Okay, well.
What I've already watched, and I follow all of these people religiously. Mark Dubowitz, Jason BRODSKT, all these other United against Nuclear Iran, the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, all of the actual neo con operatives here in Washington whose job is to lobby against deals, all of them are already be like, listen, look, Trump, ceasefire.
It's a historic achievement.
However, as long as the Islamic regime remains in place, Israel is no longer safe or now we have to get back to the negotiating table. And when we get back to that negotiating table. We cannot let the Iranians put in any poison pills. They are laying the ground there for more violations of potential cease fire, future Israeli action, more pushing the United States. And look at the vector now that they have on Donald Trump.
All they have to do.
Is to convince him that he's been humiliated by Iran or something like that, and of course he could change his mind immediately. Mark Levin is immediately on his radio show saying that doing a ceasefire with Nazis is terrible strategy, hard against Donald Trump. I'm watching the same thing. Half of these like neocon agitating accounts. They're furious with Trump actually for restraining Israel because Iran.
Broke the ceasefire.
Look, I don't even know who broke the cease fire because I don't know when the damn seaspire even started. I don't think you read that tweet and you tell me if you can decipher what it is. And by the way, it's not just me, the Israelis and the Iranians are confused as well. So look, we're still in a bad situation. This is very very mission accomplished to me, you know, it's oh, it's he wants he wanted to be the Twelve Day War, and you can see it in his television brain.
This is pr but this is real life. And by the way, even if it was.
Like such a grand strategics success, did a single thing get accomplished that couldn't have been accomplished with Steve Wickcoff.
I just don't believe it, right Ques specially No, it set us back. Yeah, that's that's what I'm saying.
The strategic logic of going for a bomb has literally never made In fact, the neocon logic may actually be more correct today that the Iranian incentive would be to string along the West, to agree to some you know, half assed deal or whatever, and sprint to a bomb.
I'm telling you that's what I would do. Now.
Look, the Iranians are weak, you know, they've been humiliated, but they still they remain to fight another day. If again, like the logic of a shelter, you know, shelter in place, bunker down, build as many ballistic missiles, and sprint to a nuke has literally never made more sense. Their country was almost destroyed, Like they got their air defenses gone, they got their nuclear facilities bombed. They all their attempts at diplomacy were failures, so they'll take the out where
they can. But I mean, you know, if you are one of those negotiation pedlers inside the Iranian regime, what legitimacy do you have now with the security establishment? Again half striss in some strategic empathy. So they're not suicidal, but also they live to fight another day, and in a certain sense, like what has happened to them is so humiliating now on the world stage that I don't know if they really have a choice to go otherwise.
And I'm not even really sure what assurance is we can offer them to say that this won't ever happen again, considering you know, the last ten years of year probacy, what are they going to do?
There's zero assurance we could offer them.
The minute that they give up their nuclear You know, what they have right now is the sixty percent highly enrich uranium, which we've heard endlessly about. They have that as a bargaining chip. They have that as something they can get rid of in order to get some sort of a deal in sanctions relief and whatever. They give that up, they are just sitting ducks, you know, that and if they give up even the pretense of, you know, pursuing some sort of nuclear weapon, which again they weren't
according to our intelligence. According to the IEA, they were not pursuing a nuclear weapon. They were using the sixty percent in richeranium as a bargaining chip in the negotiations. But yeah, the minute you give all of that up, you're sitting duck and you.
Can't trust are you kidding me?
Trust us?
We use this diplomacy as a ruse to allow the Israelis the element of surprise, you know, extent they were able to achieve that.
Then we used a.
Second diplomatic effort as a resistant even to talk about the fact we actually used a diplomatic ruse to assassinate Costumslulmany. To begin with, you can't trust us. Weren't there floating assassination of your leader of the Ayatola and you know, partner with these psychos who will do it at moments
known as the second they get a chance. So, I mean, you'd have to be a fool to trust this in those negotiations and trust any sort of assurances that we're going to let you live and let your country be.
There's no way. So that's where we are.
I mean, you've you, I think genuinely had a shot with the Witcoff negotiations at the back in the beginning, when Witcoff and Trump's position seemed to be that there was some sort of a deal that could be struck with regard to civilian nuclear usage, some sort of regional consortion, that there was some creative solution that could be worked out. I think you genuinely had a shot at a deal.
The minute it was zero percent enriched uranium, then that was a poison pill meant to kill those negotiations.
And then when you use the final round.
As a ruse at least that's the public portrayal as a ruse in order to allow the Israelis to attack, then you have probably completely closed the possibility of working this out through diplomatic means. Which, listen, there are no guarantees in life. Would that have completely guaranteed that they could never and would never pursue a nuclear weapon? No,
there's no guarantees in life. Was that a much better course that was much more likely to result in the outcome that you claim to want to achieve.
Yes, But that's the.
Thing, guys, This was never for the people who are pushing this policy. This is never about the nuclear weapons program. They want the Iranian state to collapse. They want it to be a failed state. They would be happy to see some disastrous civil war, some disastrous and deadly civil war that is spiraling out of control, that would create
a massive refugee crisis. That's what the Israelis and their allies and the new kons want to see, so that there is no challenge to complete in total Israeli hegemony in the region. That is the goal, that has always been the goal. The Israelis are not shy about saying ultimately that that is the goal. And that's why all these people, you know, the Marklevin's of the world and whoever, are just utterly outrage that there's even a possibility that
this is the off ramp that we take. But you know, listen, everyone should be very skeptical that it ends here. Even if it ends here, this has been disastrous, so let's be clear, but you should also be skeptical that it actually ends here because Soccer is right. You were right in the beginning when you said, listen, the people who want diplomacy, they have to win the battle every single day.
The psychos only have to win it once. They only have to get you know, a Fox News segment that convinces Trump one time, and suddenly you're off to the races again. The Israelis, because they are so hell bent, not in particular, but the Israelis in general is so hell bent on this outcome of regime collapse. They are not going to stop trying to pull us in and make sure that they get their fondest wish.
That is their goal.
They are completely and utterly committed to it. And unless you have someone on the other side in Trump who is who is completely and utterly committed to an alternative outcome, which would be actual peace and diplomacy, they are going to be able to ultimately get their way because no ideology is not a match for an ideology and ideological an ideological goal that you are dead set on effectuating.
So I think we continue to be.
In an incredibly dangerous and unstable place as is seen this morning. And also, I mean, the last thing I'll say here is, like, you know, Trump is making a big show this morning. We also know that a bunch of the things he said in the past were completely and totally fake. So yeah, and we're meant as a show. So you also can't put that off the table, that this is another show. We just genuinely don't know. It seems like he's genuinely frustrated with the Israelis.
That would be my guest, I think, But you can't put that possibility off the table and shifts so quickly.
I don't think that there's in fact, I know that there's not a level of intention behind it, because all of it really is just about like how he feels in this moment.
It's about the show. He loves Trump the peacemaker.
As you can all see, he's desperate to win the Nobel Peace Prize because Barack Obama, I mean, you know, falsely got one in two thousand and nine. But the point remains like that's what he wants at this moment, but he also wanted to appear tough and strong and got dragged basically, or at least went along with it based upon with Fox Newsy. Of course the man has agency. But yeah, I mean there's the incredible amount of like trust the plan and all of this. It's so utterly preposterous.
There was no plan.
It was moving about from day to day we came to the brink of war like this.
The only reason, by the way, that.
There was an off ramp was because of restraint from the Iranian side. You know, somebody riddled me that in terms of what that means, basically, everyone reiterate again, is pretending that all of its major goals were accomplished. The Iranians are lying, the Americans are lying, and the Israelis are lying. Now, I guess you know that's far preferable to war breaking out.
I'm happy and listen.
I would love to see an actual diplomatic solution that comes you know, that actually happens with Steve Wikoff and some future negotiation between Israel, Iran, and the United States. But what it would require is the Donald Trump of today basically coming hard against the Israelis. And we have day I was gonna say, and the problem with that is we've seen it once or twice. Oh, you can't attack Iran. I'm frustrated with you. You're going to take
the ceasefire in Gaza. But what's usually the story. The ceasefire in Gaza happens, and then what collapses sixty days later, and now they're roll in Gaza. I mean, it's probably never been worse than it is today. And then what happened again, Oh, you can't attack Iran in April sixty one days later, boom they attack Iran. So we have a proven track record here. Now hopefully he learns from that. Again,
I am very, very hopeful. But I think that the pro the pro war side is riding so high right now from being able to even just accomplish this, and they're going to claim a lot of credibility. And you know, Trump is a person who really can see like where his media and of course the media is playing a role CNNs yesterday talking about this is one of the greatest achievements of Donald Trump's entire president is one of the greatest legacies, you know in the Middle East, right,
Like he's a showman. He can see and eats all of this stuff up. So yeah, for me, very mission accomplished vibe. Like the idea this is really going to end on day thirteen, I just think it's preposterous. And I actually think he's just opened up like a Pandora's box and this problem will now bedevil him for four years. It will just constantly rear its ugly head, Can you really forced the Israelis to accept it be a deal?
Maybe?
I mean, honestly, if any president could, he could do it, but then he would have to want to do it.
No, and I just don't know.
Well, of course he could do it.
Of course, any American president can say to the Israelis at any time like that's it. Your aight is pold, You're not getting those weapons, any.
War, You're done.
If it was not already clear to you how dependent on us they are in order to do anything, then I mean, I think this whole provocation and war that the Israelis launched should have proved that to you, because they came in knowing that they could not come close to achieving their goals without getting us to come in.
They were running low on interceptors.
I mean, I actually think I think that's another important aspect of like, Okay, if you ask, well, why did they agree to this at this point, I think, yes, the Iranians. It doesn't surprise me they were looking for an off ramp because as I said before, they were not looking for an on ramp to begin with. For the Israelis. I think they likely agreed to it because
they were having this issue with interceptors running low. We don't know how much damage they were taking, but they took some significant amount of image in Tel Aviv and Haifa and other places. And so I think they accepted this as a way to effectively regroup and you know, have this sort of planned down as like a phased war approach. And so that's likely why they were willing to say, Okay, fine, we will do a ceasefire. Do you think they mean we're now going to have permanent peace?
You think that No, of course not. Because the other piece of this, and it does get lost sometimes is really important to highlight, is not only do you have you know, this is a multi decade goal of Netanyahu and other Israeli governments, A huge mass is really public support for it as well, but this also what are we not having as much time to talk about when we are endlessly having to cover whether we are you know, in this war and not in this war, and what
bombs were dropping and what it accomplished whatever. It makes it very difficult to really focus on what is happening in Gaza, and what is happening in Gaza is horrific. I mean, it really may be some of the worst things we have ever seen.
The entire population crowded.
Into a heiny space, rampant you know, disease and waste and horror. And then you have these near daily, if not daily, aid massacres that are just ongoing. I mean, this is just what's happening in Gaza right now. And so ron Is also provides cover for net Yahoo to be able to finish his ethnic cleansing and genocide in
Gaza and in the West Bank as well. That is that is the you know, another big piece of this picture that we can't move miss out on, which is something that Professor Mehersheimer highlighted yesterday as well, that that's a really important piece of understanding their motivations and what is going on here. So that motivation is not going to go away. The longtime desire to destroy Iran and make it so it cannot possibly be anything approaching a
competitor to Israel in the region, that is gone. And let me just say, you know, for the for the neocons out there who say, you know, good, let's let's let that happen and let's make Ran a failed state or install the Sharer, whatever fairy tale fantasy.
The outcome they have in mind. You think it stops.
There, I mean next then they'll say, well, what about Pakistan? Pakistan could be a challenge to us, or maybe it's what about Turkey. Turkey could be a challenge to us, Like you cannot bomb your way to safety and security in the region. Israel is making themselves the most hated country in the world right now. That is not a way to make you and your people and your security. There is not a way to create safety for your
own people. So this logic never stops. Even if they get their disastrous war, you know that ends in complete chaos and misery in Iran, Even then, the logic doesn't stop.
So that's where we are.
Any any other thoughts on this saga before we move on, because we do, we do have some other things we want to cover. But I think it's it's very very as we record this this morning, is very uncertain what is ultimately going to unfolden where we're going now.
The Prime Minister's office just came out and be like all the wars goals have been accomplished from these res which again, you know, it's ridiculous. My last closing is I guess it turns out Trump can order net and Yahoo in the IDF.
Right.
Interesting, Now, that's actually that's so that's a pretty key point. So if the president can indeed order the Israeli Prime Minister and the IDF to do whatever he wants to do, you should take note of that, because we were told what Israel is an independent country, they're going on their own.
He couldn't stop them. What's he gonna do? Tell them? No, he just did.
Their planes literally turned around in the sky. Yes, they still dropped a bomb on Tehran, but apparently it was like a radar installation and it didn't kill anybody at least according to the initial reports right now. And they were actually going in to basically raise the place to the ground in response to these ballistic missiles. So I think that's a very interesting lesson, isn't it, Because we
were told repeatedly that that's not possible. It's it's definitely possible if if it's if it's something that you want to do. And by the way, Trump now tells reporters aboard Air Force One, he's not looking for regime change as long as a tentative. As a tentative ceasefire takes hold, So things are changing. Yeah, it's like things can change
every single day. It would be funny, except hundreds of people are actually dead, you know, as a result of this, innocent civilians in Tehran and in Tel Aviv and all across of Israel.
And who knows where things will go in terms of this.
Yeah, nuclear pro and you've made it much more likely that Israel.
I mean that Iran.
Israel already has large nuclear word one hundreds of nuclear web Yeah, at least ninety that we know of for sure, that's two hundred.
I think Colin Powell said two hundred. Really, Wiki leagues, I'm pretty sure I have to go back. It's been a while since I looked at it.
They have a lot.
Yeah, Iran has zero, and now Iran has much more motivation and pursue one. So great, and by the way, around the world, other countries are watching those going really, yeah, I really need to get Maybe I need a nuke so these people can fuck with me, because that seems to be the only thing that will deter us and the Israelis from coming in and trying to destroy your entire country. Here we go, all right, It is primary
day in the New York City mayoral race. As a reminder, Griffin and Ryan will be in New York City too night at the Zoron Mom Donnie election night watch party, so hopefully we're going to be able to grab Zoron. We've got some other people that we're going to be able to talk to that I think you're going to be excited about. Emily and I are going to be here at home sort of head heading that live stream or whatever, being playing quarterback on that live stream so
that they can go and grab people. And we're also going to cover whatever news comes down today because God knows by tonight what state of the world we're going to be in. So that's going to kick off at eight point thirty. Thank you so much the premium subscribers who made this possible, you know, to do an extra show today obviously cost to be able to travel and get the right equipment and get the set up and all of that sort of stuff, So really really appreciate
you guys. If you all can support us at Breakingpoints dot com, that's where you can also become a premium subscriber and get.
All the goodies that that entails.
So all of that being said, Zoron mom Donnie and Brad Lander, who have cross endorsed each other.
Lander is another.
Local elected official who's progressive, has a close alliance with AOC, so they cross endorsed each other. It's also significant because Lander is the highest Jewish elected official in the city. And given the fact that a core strategy of the Cuomo campaign has been to smear Zoron as an anti Semite, that cross endorsement and you know, plan to say like, Okay, my supporters, you need to rank Zoron and zorn support supporters need to rank Brad Lander. That has been I
think very significant, very important to his campaign. So the two of them went on Colbert last night together and lo and behold. Zoron faced questions from Stephen Colbert exactly along these lines of basically, are you an anti Semite or not?
Let's go ahead and take a listen to how he responded.
Mister mom donney, same question. Does the state of Israel have the right to exist?
Yes, like all nations, I believe it has a right to exist in a responsibility also to uphold international law.
Okay, well, let's let's talk about the elephant the room is that there are many people new York, even people who would support your candidacy otherwise who don't want to support you because of the Jewish communities, fear of the true and rising anti Semitism, not only around the world, but in this country and shamefully in New York, which is the largest Jewish population of any city other than Tel Aviv in the whole world. And they are worried.
They're very upset by some of the things that you've said in the past, and they are afraid that your mayorship would actually lead to increased anti Semitism, that they believe that would be more dangerous for them. What do you say to those New Yorkers who are afraid that you wouldn't be their mayor that you wouldn't protect them.
I know where that fear is coming from. It's a fear that is based upon the horrific attacks we've seen in Washington, d C. In Boulder, Colorado.
It's all the way from Jews not replace us to today.
And it's a fear that I hear also from New Yorkers themselves. You know, just a few days after the horrific war crime of October seventh, a friend of mine told me about how he went to his synagogue for Schabbot services, and he heard the door open behind him, and a tremor went up his spine as he turned around, not knowing who was there and what they meant for him. I spoke to a Jewish man in Williamsburg just months ago who told me that the door he left unlocked
for decades is now one that he locks. And ultimately, this is because we're seeing a crisis of antisemitism, and that's why at the heart of my proposal for Department of Community Safety is a commitment to increase funding for anti hate crime programming by eight hundred percent, Because to your point, anti Semitism is not simply something that we should talk about. It's something that we have to tackle. We have to make clear there's no room for it in the city, in this country, in this world.
And no justifications for violence of any kind.
No, there is no room for violence.
I'm a proud Jewish New Yorker raised in two Jewish kids. Here is the joy of my life. I'm the highest ranking Jewish elected official in New York City government. I'm nervous about rising anti semitism, and also I believe in the humanity and the human rights of Palestinians. And I know that it is possible hate what I support that vision of Israel's Jewish democratic state, but I hate what the Netan Yahoo government is doing in Gaza. And I've
been saying that a long time. And look, you know, Mayor is going to be responsible for what happen in the Middle East. But there is something quite remarkable about a Jewish New Yorker and a Muslim New Yorker coming together to say, here's how we protect all New Yorkers.
Jews, Jewish New.
Yorkers and Muslim New Yorkers are not going to be divided from each other. We build a city where you have affordable housing and good schools and safe neighborhoods for everyone.
So Sagra, I'm interested for your reaction. I mean, it's just preposterous to me that Israel and this, you know, smear of Zoran as a n anti Zemite has become so central in this campaign. I almost can't blame though Colbert for asking him about it, because Culomo has put
it so it's front and center. And to be honest, I thought that answer from Zoren was fantastic, I mean classic, Like, first he connects on an emotional level with these personal stories, and then he's like, and that's why, here's my policy. And you're sitting there next to brad Lander, who then comes in after Zoran speaks and is like, you know, and defends him, and in a way that I think
also was you know, was very powerful. So I actually think that moment probably listen, I mean, the cake is probably baked at this point anyway, But I actually think that moment ends up serving him because he handled it so well. You hear the audience with him, You've got Brent brad Lander there to also sort of validate what he's saying, and so to me, it was actually a positive opportunity that he handled quite well here going into election.
Yeah, I don't disagree. I guess for me, it's just so tiresome that the New York City. Look, I don't live in New York.
I'm not a New Yorker. New Yorkers, you do what you want.
But my point is is like, look, the last thing that I honestly care about from the mayor's point of view is their views on the Israeli Palestinian conflict. You know, I've lived here, and why I actually have no idea what my own personal mayor's views are on various foreign conflicts. And I don't really care for me, it's about crosswalks, trash collection, property tax.
You didn't vote on which floor, Tony, I.
Care less, I really, you know, I mean, I live here, or I used to live here in Washington, d C. The nation's capital, allegedly supposedly somebody with a very powerful mayor, especially with home rule and all that. I never once was like, hey, Mayor Bowser, what are your views on Ghana? Even though she's spending plenty of time on those fours and.
You promised we'll go to Israel? Then how many times.
I was like, can you do something about crime?
And trash collection is really annoying, and the homeless problem is really out of control, and there's too many drug addicts that are around the city. That's literally it. That's all I care about. So just the fact that everybody and all of us are like supposed to care so much. I guess, you know, in a certain sense, I understand it.
This whole talking point like, oh, New York is the largest Jewish population, But again, you know, you know, we're conflating this idea the Jews of New York how the state of Israel is like directly, you know, and their views on that topic comports to the policy of their daily life in wherever they at Brooklyn, wherever.
They happen to live. It also is just preposterous.
It also erases the fact that Zoren actually has a lot of Jewish support. I mean, Brad Lander is one very high profile example on this coalition that they have formed together. And this is also something that's interesting about ranked choice voting is allows the possibility of these sort of cross endorsements. Michael Blake and Zorin have also cross endorsed, So that's one thing that you know, creates interesting possibilities
in ranked choice voting. You know something else that brad Lander said, he was like, he was like, listen, I don't think that your views on Israel should you know,
necessarily be central to New York City mayoral race. However, look, there is something powerful about this city having this alliance between you know, prominent Jewish official and a prominent Muslim official, Like that is actually a really positive and really beautiful thing, which I thought, again was like a good response to the question, But it is crazy the way that they've made this central and put it, you know, tried to persuade people that he is hates Jews and it's going
to be bad for Jewish people. I mean, some of the deranged things that I've seen out.
There are truly truly wild.
But in reality, there is no official that has Zoro actually gets second highest Jewish support in the entire race.
So what is anti.
Semitic is to expect that every single Jewish voter is going to approach these questions in the same way and have the same views.
What is anti.
Semitic is to force every Jewish person to alide with the state that is currently committing a genocide and act like that represents every Jew in the city of New York's or around the world. So in any case, that has been very central. In terms of where the polls are, there's been a mixed bag. But we did get one poll here, you know, going right into election that we mentioned yesterday from Emerson. Can put this up on the screen. This is B two that has Zoron winning. So it
has him. This is after you do all the rank choice and this and then that and whatever, and at the end in the final round, it has Zoron at fifty two percent and Cuomo at forty eight percent. Let's put the demographic split up here on the screen because this is also very interesting. You have zora On winning overall and surging by the way. The way he has come from behind has been extraordinary. He wins significantly among white voters. Cuomo's strongest base of support is among black voters.
Cuomo wins Hispanic voters sixty forty, and Zoron romps among Asian voters seventy nine twenty one. Now, this is interesting. Zoron does better with men than with women. Cuomo narrowly wins women, Zoron wins a little bit by a larger margin among men. Zoran does very well among college educated, Cuomo's bases among non college educated. The generational divide here is also extraordinary. You have people under the age of fifty.
Zoron wins sixty seven to thirty three, Cuomo wins fifty to fifty nine, and you've got you know, sixty plus, also very much in the Cuomo kaev Actually, apparently Cuomo's strongest age demographics is actually fifty to fifty nine, which is kind of interesting. So in any case, you've got this sort of like young, college educated, white and Asian bro dominated coalition for Zoron and then for Cuomo. You have his base as sort of like older black voters.
And as we've been looking at the early voting numbers so far, they do look to be favorite like, they looks to be much more energy behind Zoron. The areas of the city in particular, you know, areas of Brooklyn where he is absolutely the strongest, have been showing up in droves. Young people have been showing up in a way that you know is highly unusual, if not unprecedented for early voting. And one other thing that people are pointing to Sager is the heat in the city today
is unbelievable. Griffin was just texting as supposed to be like one hundred and fourteen in the Bronx, the Bronx and Staten Island being the two boroughs that are strongest for Cuomos. So, you know, given that his base Zoron is almost certainly ahead in the early vote, which is pretty impressive. He has a massive number of volunteers. Coulomo really has to depend on strong election day turnout, and his base is more elderly. That's why the heat can
potentially come into play. But listen, that's one poll. Most of the poles have shown Cuomo winning. Some of them have shown him winning by you know, as much as ten points. So this is really it's anybody's game. It could truly go either way at this point.
Yeah, I mean, and you know what's fascinating to me is for Cuomo is the fact that it's even this close is honestly humiliating. And actually one of his Flowers advisors did a very good job of summing it up. Let's put B three please up on the screen again. I reiterate, this is a guy who used to work
for Andrew Cuomo. A grim and joyless campaign as befits, a battle for a prize never wanted, one long viewed with disdain and contempt, as a trifle that only lesser men would debase themselves to seek victory if it comes at all, will be bandaged with tinmy fan fa strident gloat to muffle the voice at the center that won't stop whispering.
I'm hollow, brutal man, I mean, that is savage. This is how.
This dude.
Hey, listen, honestly, it's poetic. That's that's well written.
I could never come up with something like that just off the top of my head, but it does demonstrate, you know, the real problems that they have. I will say a couple of things for Zorn. First of all, obviously he's run a decent campaign. I mean, he's running nice a good campaign, got a lot of a lot of excitement, a lot of lower propensity voters, use social media, podcasting, et cetera to really get his message out there, got a lot of progressives to endorse him.
So there's that.
But second, it's equally a tale of the failure of the New York Democratic establishment, because the New York Democratic Establishment correctly kicked Andrew Croomo out of office over me too.
But really what they should have kicked him out for was his handling of COVID.
It was a disaster.
This guy's there his blood.
On his hands of elderly people because of his policy and then light about and all of this is confirmed I mean by his own government basically at the time. And yet they still allowed him to like trapes on in and to try and to seize it based.
On his own name recognition alone. So there's those two.
It's really a Hillary dynamic to be honest, like a deeply terrible candidate who comes in here and is just like I'm the king or the queen.
I deserve this.
It's my time because of who I am and my last name, and then you have upstart campaign. I also think Zoron has a lot of political benefit or a lot of political wins at his back. Cuomo's out here supporting the Iran strike, like Cuomo's out here running the whole anti semi you know thing against so Soron is the guy who's got, you know, the anti Trump energy really at his back at a very critical time when
the Democratic base is very, very fired up. So look, it's a classic insurgent versus you know, you just ostified establishment story. If he does win, and even if he does come close, again, it's embarrassing.
It's deeply embarrassing for Andrew Kuama.
Yeah, So to that point about the different campaigns that they have run, Zorn concluded his campaign walking the length of the island of Manhattan, recording these videos with supporters. I read an account from a journalist who walked with him that entire length and was sort of expecting that in northern Manhattan, you know, these are more and I used to live in this area. There's are more like
working class areas. There's a lot of rent stabilized apartments, very diverse in particularly walking through areas that are majority Dominican, Spanish language speakers, et cetera.
And this reporter was like.
You know, I kind of expected he wouldn't get as much hype there because that's not my impression of what his base was.
And he was like people were flooding.
Him, every mobbing him everywhere anyway, was a celebrity everywhere he went throughout the entire city. And so let's go ahead and take a look at a little bit of the video and the vibe from that walk down the length of the island of Manhattan.
This is before guys go ahead and play this.
We have just begun our walk through the entirety Manhattan. Where inwood Hill Park at.
The tip top we're outside because New York is deserving mayna that they can see, they can hear, they can even yell up, good bro elections on Tuesday, Tuesday.
Yeah, everybody pray.
Yes, sir, yes, sir, Thank you brother.
You have climbed six floor walk ups and braved the pouring rain to canvas hour City. Wait, we both have canvas for you.
I am sorry, but the days of moral victories are over because this is a campaign that is going to win on June twenty four.
All right, where are we headed?
A lot of bros in that video? Sorry?
You know the Democratic Party is serious about, like, hey, how do we win back these young men? They might want to do something other than just do everything they can to try to destroy this candidate who clearly shows some promis and is like struck a nerve and it really does tell you everything about like just how terrible the Democrats truly are and why they are so stuck and why they lose. I mean, this is a talented politician, Like he is a talented guy. He from this come
from behind campaign, lightning in a bottle. Whether or not he wins, vastly exceeded anyone's expectations. And their reaction to that is to do everything they possibly can to crush it. So, in contrast to how Zoran is closing his campaign, Cuomo
is closing his campaign. First of all, Griffin went out and was like, I really am having trouble even finding a video a Cromo like in his campaign closing here, and I think everyone would acknowledge Ross Barkin, who was a great New York journalist who've had.
On the show.
Coulomo's run an absolutely abysmal, lazy, tired campaign, But his final move here was to go deep back to the Democratic well and enlist former President Bill Clinton to record an ad for him. I guess sex past stick together. Let's go ahead and take a listen to B seven.
Hello, this is President Bill Clinton. I'm calling to urge you to vote for Andrew Cuomo for Mayor of New York City. Early voting is open now in election days this Tuesday. I chose Andrew to be my Secretary of Housing in Urban Development because he knew how to get things done. Together. We worked for years delivering for working people, lowering homelessness, revitalizing neighborhoods, and bringing real investment to communities
that had been left behind. As governor, he built a new Laguadia, expanded public transit, raised the minimum wage, and passed marriage equality. Now New York needs real leadership on affordable housing, public safety, and genuine opportunity. And Andrew's ready to deliver. He's a fighter who knows how to make government work. And at a time when our basic rights are under assault. No, he'll stand up and protect the
people in this city. So make your voice heard. Vote early or show up on Tuesday, and please vote for Andrew Cuomo for Mayor of New York City.
Inspiring stuff soccer, yes, deeply, but who knows.
I mean, look, it could still work. I guess we also have this attack from Andrew Cuomo. B eight guys, let's take a listen.
LA's and chaos. Now Trump's coming for New York. You think a thirty three year old legislator who's passed three bills can stop him. Andrew Cuomo's managed to state and manage crises from COVID to Trump. We need someone experience to stop him. People by Cuomo for NYC Inc.
There's been ocean of money coming in from Oh yeah, Clomo. I mean, somebody showed me a bar chart and it was insane. It's like ten to one margin in terms of his spending. So if he does win, it'll be at a very very very low margin, and largely it will probably be a story of what it's like older black voters, right Jewish voters as well, basically who save him? It's probably really a tale of name recognition if I had to guess, oh yeah, you know, on his side.
So, I mean, look, that's the other thing here.
I'm not going to underestimate the Democratic establishment, even as weak and you know, horrible, disgusting all of that as they can be, they.
Still have a couple of tricks and things up there.
Sleep Jim Clyburn came out for Andrew Croma, which what, like, I know, dude, you're from South Carolina.
What do you even have an incentive here? It's like, wow, we know the incentive.
Yeah, I'm shocked. Actually Obama didn't decide to jump in and make sure of that too.
Actually yeah, I mean Clinton kind of makes sense. I think he lives in New York so and he spends a lot of time in New York City, but whatever.
Yeah, but his headquarters.
Whatever, the Clinton Global Initiative, I think, is in Harlem.
Yeah.
But you know, the other corollary to this is if Zorn does win, will just be the billionaire freak out.
It's gonna be delicious.
They're already proof for you to out, that's preloaded, is locked and loaded, ready to go.
All because I actually think it would be very healthy for New York because New York's taxation system is completely stupid and it's like ten people pay like forty percent of the taxes. They basically designed it so that it's basically it's heavily reliant on Wall Street and ulter rich financiers and a lot of the more working class, middle class and even upper middle class like have less of
a stake like in how things are all run. This is bad because it actually gives way too much outsize power to these guys and be like, I'm gonna move to Palm Beach and they're like, no, please don't.
Yeah, we can't pay our bills if you don't.
So their whole financing structure actually does need to be totally redone. So it would be good. It would actually be a good thing if all of the super rich left New York City.
It would be affordable.
Again, Like they threatened to do this over build a Blasio too, and they didn't. And but actually the n I saw chart the number of millionaires went.
Up in the city after de Blasio gets elected.
So but see it's actually it's really not a millionaire question. It's more like one hundred millionaire because that's again the insanity. The New York system is how much is reliant on the people who make like two or three hundred million and or are billionaires.
But yeah, is Wall Street going to go anywhere?
No?
I don't think so, we'll see. I means it'll be fun. I personally, it'll be fun to watch no matter what.
Oh yeah, absolutely so again, guys, we'll be covering it live tonight.
Make sure you tune in.
Emily and I will be here, Ryan and Griffin will be up in New York covering this live, and we will all find out together what happens. Assuming they're aim about their ballots. That's right, big question mark.