Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here, and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Indeed, we do a lot of interesting stories to talk about this morning, So a lot of notable old man moments from Joe Biden at the G seven.
And various other places.
Maybe even more remarkable than that is the MSNBC Cope and spin, so we will show you all of that. We also have some really fascinating new polls about how the coalitions are shifting between Trump and Biden. So older voters, for the first time in modern history, may actually vote for the Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Trump is cleaning up up among infrequent voters. That is also a huge historical shift. So a lot that's really fascinating to dig
into there. In terms of those numbers, we also host some new interesting numbers out of France. So you'll recall the sort of centrist leader of France, Emmanuel Macron, called for snap elections.
He appears to.
Have sealed his political doom by making that decision, So we'll break down those numbers for you what it could mean in the context of US politics as well. Israel is threatening a huge escalation in their war against Lebanon and Hesblos, specifically a US not doing a lot to
forestall that possibility, so very dire consequences potentially there. We also have the US military kind of freaking out about how significant the Houthy threat has been, and we're going to take a look at what we know about how much it has cost us to effectively go to war with the Houthy's. We also are excited to be joined by Brianna Joy Gray. As you guys know, she was
recently fired from the Hill for her commentary viz. Of the Israel and Palestine, so we want to hear directly from her about that and about censorship in general.
So a lotto gives you today.
Yes, we're excited for that.
Before we get to that, don't forget we've got our premium subscription. You can go ahead and sign up at breakingpoints dot com. There's some awesome interviews, exclusive content, etc. That people get early access to, specifically from Counterpoints. So it's a great guess that is coming later. So you're going to want to go ahead and sign up Breakingpoints dot Com to become a premium subscriber. So, as Crystal alluded to, there's been some crazy Biden old man moments.
You may have seen them, but we probably didn't see some of the most insane cope that we have gotten yet, both from MSNBC's Joe Scarborough and others on the network. Let's first start off with Biden at the G seven, where historic gathering of some of the most unpopular leaders in the entire world coming together. There's certainly something to be said about that, which we'll get to in a little bit. Where Biden, certainly a guest, made some headlines with some of his behavior.
Let's go ahead and just take a look at this.
So this is the most famous moment at the G seven for some reason, and they decided that people should parachute in for no good reason in front of all the G seven leaders, and they're all nodding and clapping approvingly. Well, what everyone's focusing on here is this very strange Biden wandering off moment where you could see him just basically walking away from all the other leaders. He goes and tries to engage with people who are jumping on the other side, and then has to be called back there
by Maloney from Italy. Of course, he has to be the only person to cover up his face with the aviators to avoid the old man squint, and a lot of people focusing in on this just because it is the most classic hallmark of like old man kind of lost, seemingly listless. Now, Crystal the White House is accusing everyone who is showing this video of selectively not telling the whole story. And the whole story, according to them, is that he was simply just wandering off in order to
give a thumbs up there to the other parachutists. But they can't erase the weird optics of the situations of anything you want to say before we get to some of the other ones.
Well, I'll just say, as a prelude to the other ones that perhaps if this was an isolated incident. Yes, he may be more inclined to buy their spin Like, Okay, anybody who's on camera a lot, you might have a few weird awkward moments, because all human beings at some level are fundamentally awkward. But given the track record here, I think the initial impression of yet another wandering old man moment is probably the accurate one.
That's right.
So then, in the span of seventy two hours, Biden also finds himself in Los Angeles, right at a fundraiser with George Clooney and Julia Roberts and Barack Obama. Well, let's go ahead and play some of this first. Here at a fundraiser in Los Angeles, there's a ritzy gathering, George Clooney, Julia Roberts, Biden basically being led away from the stage by Obama.
Now you can say again whatever you want, it's there. Not good. Here, very odd meeting with the Pope, Biden.
Himself Catholic, basically touching heads with the Pope.
And then here let's take a listen to him with a TikTok.
Guy, and I know you're a typical pressure guy. You're grabbing me in front of this all and said, oh, man, I trust you. As far as I throw your phone, I can add a good arm. Man, I can throw a long way. But my point is this, I've made very clear to the Israelis, but they have to do in the near term. If they don't, that's gonna So.
What's gonna help.
See, guy's gonna cut off fronds.
Because usually need to tell me I have a nice suit, and you did today, so.
Please thank you.
So being led away by Obama, I mean, the optics on that are just horrible because it's already the former president, the most popular Democrat in the entire.
Country, leading away the aging president.
Weird interaction with the pope that one you know that might not even be aged. That's just vintage Biden. Then you've got him having an old man moment with this TikToker where the backstory is that this guy was invited to a VIP reception of the White House. And then look how angry Biden gets at him threatening to throw his phone when he just asked a question about Gaza. He immediately calls him some typical prescott. I could throw your phone as far as I can. So you've got
the ornerinist. You've got the wandering away, You've got all of this literally happening in the span of like seventy two to ninety six hours.
There's no spinning this away. It is what it is.
Yeah, And with the TikTok guy, I mean, there's a lot to say about that one, because first you have these are TikTok influencers you invited to the White House because there's an assumption that they're like, you know, going to be on your side, et cetera. You're antagonizing them. You don't seem to really understand who they are or why they're there.
They're not some typical press guy.
And then when he's asked a question about Israel, are you going to keep funding Israel? I mean, there's there's such a long pause too before he can marshal any sort of a response. Then ultimately AIDS have to swoop
in and rescue him. I mean, this is just on like the simplest, possible and most obvious question from this influencer who obviously is there because they think he's more or less friendly a friendly so underscores the issues that Biden obviously has with young people over the gods of war.
We're going to show some numbers too.
I mean, is this a significant issue for his African American base as well?
So just listen.
I mean you have to be insane, delusional, a liar, etc. To deny the reality in front of our face at this point, which is Joe Biden may well very well survive another four years, but on some key levels, he's already gone.
I mean, even from when he.
Was elected just a few years ago, the decline is notable. And we know that not just because of the little clips that happened to sneak out, but because they refused to allow him to even do you know, the limited interviews he was doing before. So I maintained that you know, a few years, whether he loses now or he you know, gets gains reelection, And we're talking a number of years
down the road. Once he's out of office, maybe two years later, there's going to be some White House insider writes a tell all about the decline, about the things they witnessed, about the moments where he couldn't marshal the words, where he didn't know what people were talking about, where
he was confused. It's you know, it's getting to I don't think we're quite too, but getting towards Diane Feinstein type of levels Wherewin's just pretending who's around him that no, no, he's vigorous and you don't see him, you know, off camera, et cetera.
Like we're not stupid, we are not stupid.
Well, you said you'd have to be a liar or propagandist to deny this, and we found our fair share over at MSNBC. Let's take listen to how they're spinning it.
It needs to be sad.
I mean you you you have jump Bien here with it.
Schedule would be brutal for anybody.
Oh my god, I'm president any a going to Europe, you know, Dons on d Day and spending five days in France, going over to the G seven.
In the middle of the personal struggles.
In the middle of the personal struggles, the Hunter trial, and and yesterday I even even critics were saying that that he did a strong job, very good job representing the United States, even though again we have some some cheap fakes that the RNC once again uh spreading vicious
lies about Joe Biden. But that's just that's that's who they are, that's who they've become We will point out a second, but Jonathan merr I was struck by that, struck by the strong, strong message as well that Joe Biden delivered yesterday.
I mean, the United States and our great allies in Europe have really stood shoulder to shoulder here other than Mike Johnson and Donald Trump holding up badly needed UH security aid the Ukraine.
Now that that roadblock has gotten pasted, and people who actually love freedom and love democracy and hate authoritarians who invade other countries, it seems to me we have them out numbered.
Got them out numbered. Yeah, certainly with the most unpopular people.
In all of Europe.
Yeah, we'll get to that, and our little France segment about how the Ukraine situation is basically collapsing the entire center, right, you know, the entire center. I coalition in France, one of the great powers on the continent.
Put the policy aside.
He's like, look at the strong, vigorous job, and what a tough schedule. It's like, that is the most basic schedule for a president. Yes, we expect it's a tough schedule. It's opposed to be the toughest job in the world. That's why ostensibly, you want somebody who is strong in that job that can cope with it. We don't give them points for doing the most basics of traveling from Europe to Los Angeles for a fundraiser. It's also not like easy into doing anything anything special. Oh he went
and saw and attended to review on D Day. Yeah, so is every single president who has ever held the office. That's literally part of the job description. So there's so much going on there. But yeah, maybe it pales in comparison to our next clip before. If you want to say anything.
Before, yeah, let me. I just want to comment on the policy. I mean this line about the you know, oh, if you believe in freedom and democracy, Like are you kidding me? How can you even mouth those words now given the support for Israel committing a genocide in Gaga, Like, how can you pretend that human rights and freedom and
democracy has anything to do with this foreign policy? How can you even pretend at this point with regard to Ukraine that the policy has been anything other than abject and complete disaster with monstrous results first and foremost for Ukrainian men in Ukrainian society. Like that's the part that gets me is It'd be one thing if you could point at the policy and be like, well, he's really freaking old, and I'm not sure if he's going to make it another but at least things are going good,
but they're not, especially on foreign affairs. To try to make that argument that he's been a strong, effective leader is just complete and utter lies, propaganda and insanity that I can't even believe that Joe Scarborough believes. I mean, this person is not an idiot. He's not an idiot, he's not naive. He was in Washington, he knows the real reasons that these people actually make the decisions that they do, and it has nothing to do with, you know, defending democracy or human rights.
Et cetera.
But he also, Joe Scarborough has a track record of being wrong and basically every major foreign policy of an issue of our time.
So I guess it's par for the course.
Even more MSNBC slavish North Korean propaganda, let's take a lesson.
It's amazing because you think about the fact that the president is playing chess and the former president at best is playing like hungary, hungry hippo.
Yeah, well, if that maybe una, I'm gonna give he's playing O O now and somebody keeps telling him draw four. I just you know, it's the split screen this week, much like this split screen last week. We keep talking about the split screens that have happened, and again much for everyone to say. And you know, oh, Joe Biden seems a little too old. I don't know about you, but from France doing all these things, coming back to America, going back out to the G seven in Italy.
Now he's on.
His way to la right now as we speak, to do another event. This is and I don't know where Donald Trump has been. Oh oh yes, I didn't know where he's been railing. Really, I'll get the machine on a stage.
It's a little bit marginal, but I think it shows that the one thing we've known about Joe Biden since he took office is this is a man who meets his moments. He met his moment at the beginning, he met his moment with the economic crisis in the wake of COVID, he met his moment with Ukraine. He has
met his moment over and over and over again. And I think, now, look, we're just a few days away now from that first debate, and so what the split screen is going to look like is exactly what we're going to see in Atlanta not too long from now, which is someone railing against the ghosts.
Who else is in the room with you?
Donald? Do you see the people there with someone who's going to be like you really went four more years of this?
Like, I don't know what's what's screen?
Middle look at because the only one I'm seeing here is Biden. Now, look Trump, He certainly says some off the wall stuff and he goes on his meandering rabbit holes that said, I covered him for many many years. That has been par for the course now for a long time, long before even this race. It's not all that noticeable, honestly in terms of the difference in his performance, whereas with Biden, I mean, I don't know how again you can deny reality. We also have this we can
put up there on the screen. This is from the New York Post. They report that Biden's condition quote shocks allies at the G seven summit, with one saying that it is worst he has ever been.
This was during discussions at the G seven.
Diplomatic insider telling British press quote that Biden had been losing focus, and that is the worst that he has ever been. In several separate instances, he had awkward, you know, exchanges with Meloney from Italy. Quote apparently got on the wrong foot with her, keeping her waiting for over twenty minutes before arriving for an unknown reason. Then in the meeting itself, like things kind of went off the rails.
At the same time, he had all these meetings with other leaders, many of them allegedly or at least their aides telling all of their local media they're shocked at his condition. This is just more and more that adds to what we already see on the camera. And yet for them, it's like they are literally living in a different reality.
I mean, I wonder with the MSNBC crew, like, does their own audience even believe this and buy us at this.
Point, I don't actually think.
I don't know, I.
Don't actually think so, maybe because their audience is so small. But when you look at the word clouds that we had from jail Partners last week, every demographic, every partisan group, Democrats, Republicans, and certainly independence. Most of all, independence the number one word they associated with Joe Biden as old. So I don't even know, if the MSNBC crowd is buying that he's playing nine dychs while TRUP is playing Hungry Hungry. Ifoh, I mean this kind of amusing turn of phrase, I
wish it actually applied. You know, if I didn't think Joe Biden was a monster at this point, I might find the whole situation somewhat tragic, because here's a man who chased the White House his entire adult life. Finally he's able to grab the brass ring, and it comes at a time when he's basically too old to do
the job. And I think, I don't know if it was just manipulation, public manipulation, or if he really considered if he had more self awareness at the time when he was running back in twenty twenty and he was suggesting to the public that he would step down, that he would serve only one term, and now that he's in the job, there's both just the you know, the allure of the power and not wanting to give that up.
But also I think as he has gotten to a point of age and decline, he doesn't have enough self awareness to realize how much he's lost at this point. So in any case, whether it was just a sheer lie for public manipulation, or whether he really had some thoughts of moving aside. You know, if you actually believe the things that Democrats claim to believe about the existential threats facing the country is this is you know what Jane Yuger says, and I think he's one hundred percent correct.
This is one of the most selfish, narcissistic moves that you could possibly make. It really is a betrayal of his own voters and the reasons that they put him in place to begin with. And it has set up Democrats for potentially a stunning loss against another incredibly weak candidate who would be easily defeated by virtually any other just like normal basically coherent democrat.
We have a lot of polling actually to show some of the dichotomies that we have in the race. Let's go to the next block here, please, and let's start with the first element, the quote dread election. Let's go and put it up there on the screen. The share
of quote double haters has hit historic highs. Now, what you can see in front of you is that the share of Americans who have unfavorable views of both major party candidates is at an all time high, nearly as high as twenty sixteen when Hillary Clinton was on the ballot. There has really been no parallel for those two elections twenty sixteen and twenty twenty four. Even only just thirteen percent back in twenty twenty said that they had an
unfavorable an unfavorable view of both of the major party candidates. Now, this actually could be a decent thing for Trump. We'll get to that. We have to parse some of the nuances here. But last time around, the unfavorable views of hate both parties broke hard for Trump because people had a very negative view of Hillary Clinton. There is some evidence to say that some of that unfavorability could be
transferring over to Joe Biden. But what this has also done is it has really forced a choice amongst key parts of coalition voters. Let's put this up there. As you alluded to, Joe Biden somehow has gained significantly amongst older voters. Now, traditionally older voters are more conservative, and the thesis was that yes, Democrats were going to lose older voters, but keep the margin relatively small and will
blow it out amongst Black, Hispanic and younger voters. Well, what you can see actually in front of you is that a lot of the data that has been collected recently shows that there has been a big flip, mostly in the last couple of years, where some fifty one percent now of people who are over the age of sixty five support Biden, and as significantly drop for Trump in his support, which was well above fifty percent in
twenty twenty, down to just forty two. And I think a lot of the data that we've talked about here on this show can give us some inklings as to why. First and foremost is that the number one reason that younger voters, Hispanic voters, and others people were supporting Trump is they want change, even though they don't even like Trump, they just want a major change, a shock to the system. Inflation is killing them. They're having problems with housing in general.
They see like a real shakiness uncertainty in terms of America's foreign policy abroad. If you're old, I mean, this has been the greatest term you know, in modern history. Right, You've seen significant increase in your housing prices. You in general have a good steak in the system. You have enough of a cushion in order to be able to eat inflation. A lot of these boomer voters, I mean, they have very different views on Israel on Ukraine.
Right.
These are people who view Russia literally remember the Cold War and in some cases haven't really forgotten it. So for them, they've gotten a lot of what they want. In fact, they probably hold against Biden that he withdrew from Afghanistan. These are the coalition of voters that delivered Georgia w push the same White House they remember nine to eleven. They're probably still steeped in a lot of
that propaganda. They watch a lot of cable news, and that's why I said many of them may believe the propaganda. These are the key demos that keep all three of the cable news networks going. So for them, you could see that their stake in the system is actually doing well well. A stake for everybody else is not doing well. And that's what explains that overall drop. And when Trump runs against the system, he in in a way is running against the consensus for a lot of the people who are older.
Yeah, and just to underscore the fact that I mean, in modern history, this would be unprecedented for Republicans to lose older voters, and it has been a huge benefit to them electorally that older voters have been so strongly in their camp. Why because they vote. We're going to get to this in a minute. The way that this is contributing to a huge shift in you know who in frequent voters favor. But just to pause on the
older demographic shifting to Biden, it really is remarkable. It's interesting because, for one thing, I think Joe Biden is a product of his generation. What he has his finger on the pulse of is how your average eighty year old fields about these conflicts and about the country and
about the economy, et cetera. And in fact, when you look at the issues that Democrats are prioritizing, you know the fact that they lead with preserving democracy, well, it's older voters who say that that is a top priority. And so not only do you have the bifurcated economy that you're talking about, soccer where if you are an asset owner, which you know that very much skews along
age demographic lines. So if you are an older voter, you're much more likely to be a homeowner, You're much more likely to have you know, some investments in the stock market or four oh one K retirement account. You're much more likely to own assets. And those are the people who have benefited overwhelmingly from our economic system under Joe Biden, but honestly for the last like, you know, several decades, that's the way our economy has been set up.
It's just particularly notable, and that divide is growing and growing. So for you, yeah, things seem really good economically. Well, that allows you to prioritize some of these more sort of high minded theoretical issues like quote unquote preserving democracy.
You also have a group of voters and older voters.
Who remember a time when there was a lot more reference and trust in American institutions. You know, if you're a young voter and your a whole life has been formed in the you know, post Iraq War, post financial crisis, Donald Trump era, your whole like, oh, the institutions, the norms, the guardrails, like, you just don't have that in you. Whereas for older voters, there's still this instinct that Joe Biden really reflects of these institutions really matter and we
really have to preserve them, and that's top priority. Also, as I said, if you're doing economically better, you can sort of afford to have those types of concerns. So I think the democratic message in a lot of ways is perfectly pitched and tuned to this older demographic. And you are already mentioned as well on foid affairs. This
is the group that's the most pro Ukraine. This is the group that shares the views of Joe Biden, Viza the Israel and has you know, in their mind this is our ally and you know, against the Soviet Union in the Cold War, and we just stand by Israel. That's what we do, period, end of story. And also have an understanding of Israel. It's very different from what is actually going on in modern Israel today. So you know, when you think about all those pieces, it makes a
hell of a lot of sense. And it also reminds us that voters are not stupid or irrational. You for older voters who've benefited from this system, I guess this is a rational place to be.
Yeah, people vote their interests mostly, and actually, as you just said, when they fulfilled the majority of their interests, then they can worry about high minded ideals. Well, and let's be very very clear, he could win because of this, and that is the craziest part.
Let's put this off on the screen.
Fantastic right up here from the New York Times really confirms a lot of what we've talked about here, where the headline is if everyone voted, would Biden benefit not anymore so. If you voted in the twenty twenty two primary election, it was a Biden plus five overall in the sample. But if you voted in the twenty twenty two midterms but not the primaries, it was just Biden plus one. In other words, people who are very invested primary voters, people who come out when others don't, Those
people are skewing much more heavily Biden. Let's go in head to the next one, because this confirms even more. If you voted in the twenty twenty presidential election but you didn't vote in a primary or in a midterm, Trump is actually winning that group by plus one. So what do we know about presidential elections? Huge portions of the public only come out to vote in presidentials. If they come out to vote at all, mostly infrequent, they
might like Trump. They hadn't voted since nineteen eighty four or whatever. They're like, Oh, I like what this guy has to say, or I really hate Trump. Okay, I'm going to come out and vote. But they don't frequently vote. They don't you know, they don't register for campaigns, or they don't sign petitions, they're not going to city council meetings, et cetera. Those people are the people that Trump is winning. Right now, let's go to the next one too as well.
No voting history. This is the crazy part, and this is what Biden people should really be afraid of. It's Trump plus fourteen people who have never voted before. Now again, that could be a good thing if they do come out to vote.
It's also you know.
The past is usually predictive of future behavior, as in, if you've never voted before, why should we have any confidence that you're actually going to go and vote on election day or get a mail in ballot and send it in. Takes a little bit of effort, effort that you've never mustered previously. If we'll go to the next part as well, you can continue to see if everyone voted again, it is not it is not Biden who
would benefit. And the reason why this is such a big flip is just because in all of the past Previously, it was a Democratic talking point that if we just got these hundred million people who had never voted before, if they actually came out to vote, Democrats would win every single election. But Trump has completely realigned that where these frequent voters, suburban women and older voters who are voting on either abortion and or preserving democracy, they are
crawling over broken glass to participate. And it used to be that many of those people were Republicans, but a lot of them are very rich, and a lot of them are very old, and on aggregate, those are the people that you would always want to be coming out for you, because that's how you prevail at the local and the state and the federal election. So Obama was kind of the inverse of this. He was the king
of winning the infrequent voter, which is why he would win. Meanwhile, you know, a thousand state house seats, both chambers of Congress midterm elections, he would always suffer. Now it seems that Biden is actually flipping that around. Then, you know, we come down to this trite you know observation, quote unquote it comes down to turnout. But unironically it really does here Crystal, because this time, if it's a high turnout election like in twenty twenty, I think Trump is
going to win. If it's a low turnout election, then I think Biden is going to win because he's got more actual frequent voters who are coming out. And on balance, those are the people in general who you want to bet on. You never know what if it rains on election day, what if this happens, What if that happens. Like the people who you want who are always voting that, those are the people who you want with you on election day.
And the funny thing is even the two parties don't seem to have realized the way this has flipped because so much of modern political history. I mean, think of all the battles that have been fought over like voter id and it's always Democrats on the side of let's do mail in voting. Let's have a longer early voting period, Let's extend the hours, Let's make it easier to vote. Let's make it so you don't have to have a driver's license in order to vote, so we can get
as many people as possible to the polls. And the Republicans have are always and continue by the way, to be on the other side of that of let's restrict the hours, let's make it harder to vote, let's require various forms of IDA in order to vote.
That just political logic.
You know, there's a morality question around that too, but just in terms of the naked political calculus, it should now be Democrats who were like, let's make it hard, let's make it show that it's only during working hours, and so only old retirees can easily go and cast their ballots. So I think even the parties haven't recognized
the way the shift has occurred. It's hard for me to wrap my head around because this is so baked in to the Obama era like conception of politics that the infrequent voters, that this new rising young coalition is the core of the Democratic Party, and the Republicans have the older voters who are always reliable, that's why they always crush the Democrats. And special election and midterms, we
have seen the way that's flipped. And so you know, as we've been covering the the special elections and in particular, like we just covered the one in Ohio six where Democrats outperformed by twenty points in a very red district that Trump won by twenty nine points. That is a story of who turned out. I believe we were looking at some of the numbers in one of the key counties there the Republican candidate who did prevail, but it
was much more narrow than it should have been. He was only able to draw up twelve percent of Trump's twenty twenty totals there, Whereas the Democratic candidate who spent no money by the way, and was like basically no one had ever heard of this person, he was able to obtain about twenty two percent of Joe Biden's vote total. So it's just purely a matter of turnout. So who's going to show up on election day? I mean, it
really is very interest. It's hard for me to imagine that people have never voted in presidential election before are going to find this particular election so like exciting and compelling that they're going to show up. But even when you're just looking at the universe of people who voted last presidential election, Okay, well that seems more plausible that those people show back up again in another presidential election.
And guess what among those people? Trump does have the edge.
Yeah, bingo, And let's put this up there the traditional voter demographic that that Biden voters and the Democratic Party could always rely on black votvoters. Well, here you see an oversample by USA today. Black voters are not thrilled
with Biden, but they dislike Trump more. If you dig though into a little bit, they show quote how Biden has lost ground not necessarily to Trump, but either to non voting or to third party candidates, and quote in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania where the race could be decided by the slimmest of margin, the president can hardly afford to lose any support from his most reliable base as he faces a rematch with Trump, and the support is not really as big as he previously thought.
It's actually in Pennsylvania, he's getting.
Some fifty six percent of the vote, but RFK Junior and Cornell West are racking up almost fifteen percent combined, and you've still got fourteen percent who are undecided. In Michigan, for what I have in front of me, very similar numbers, Joe Biden fifty four percent, Trump's got fifteen. But again RFK Junior and Cornell West are combined percentage rough for around fourteen points. And then undecided at fourteen as well.
So this is where the third party phenomenon could really come back to Biden, because you cannot afford to lose those votes in the slimmest of margins, especially in the cities places like Detroit and Pennsylvania where really those cities, those margins are. Their lack of performance in twenty sixteen, that's what cost Hillary the election, both in Pennsylvania and
in Michigan and Wisconsin too. Actually, Milwaukee and many of the urban core in Wisconsin, a lot of those voters they just didn't come out to vote when they previously had voted for Obama and boom, Trump wins the election.
Yeah, and this was the demographic too where we saw weakness for Democrats in the midterms. It was kind of covered up by the fact that they had out performance in other areas and so we're able to, you know, do much better then people thought they were going to do, much better than historically the party in power does during midterms.
But this was a notable place of weakness. And if you dig into the numbers of Okay, black voters who backed Joe Biden last time, but they're not saying they're going to back in this time, what are there are reasons? And what they say is that more than a third say they just haven't been impressed with his performance in office. Okay, fair enough, so just sort of general like, I don't feel like this is going all about well. Fourteen percent
said he's too old for the job. Thirteen percent said that they are concerned about a support for Israel during the war in Gaza. That was interesting to me that that number was as high as the he's too old number, And another eleven percent said that Biden hasn't kept his promises. So, you know, in a lot of sense, you know, Charlemagne is obviously you know, he's an entertainer and a prominent figure.
But I do feel like he's been representing a lot of these feelings in the way that he's discussed the Biden presidency and his unwillingness to come out and actively endorse him this time around. Now he's indicated all but come out and said, okay, he's going to vote for Joe Biden again. But he feels that promises have been broken. He feels that he was sort of you know, led down the garden path last time around and can't put
himself out in the same way. And so you know, the question for Democrats is number one, is RFK Junior or Cornell West? Are they going to actually be on the ballot? That's question number one and number two when you come down to it and people realize, like, okay, but at the end of the day, it's going to be Biden or Trump. Does that bring people back around?
And there's a good chance that it will, we should say, because that's typically what happens frequently with third party candidates is when things get real and you know, people are really focused in on this come September October, there is a kind of you know, realization that there are only really two viable choices, and support for third party candidates falls off. That's historically what's happened, is that what happens this time around?
Big question mark Yeah, will we will see, as they say, but overall interesting signs and just more so about one of the great lessons that we can all take away from this is that politics is a living thing. It doesn't just stay static. Things have changed dramatically in four years. They have become unrecognizable in sixt years, and all those people who wrote books about the laws of politics James
Carville forty more years, et cetera didn't work out. And I think that's a great thing because it shows that people are not static, that they do pay attention. They change their mind and just because what they change their main mind on may not be with a pundit class wants them to, they certainly do pay attention in their own way. So I have more faith actually in the American people because they're always actually changing their mind and looking at things and deciding things on the fly.
And I think that's good.
Let's move to France, where again people are certainly changing their minds. There is a fantastic thread here. I want to make sure I say this gentleman's name correctly. I think it's Arnault bertrand should we go with that. He has had some fantastic insights into French politics that we wanted to put here on the show just because it is possibly a harbinger of some major change that's happening
here in the US. But probably most importantly, it's just that the European like neoliberal consensus, as we previously talked about at the G seven, has never been more unpopular actually with European voters.
So let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.
This is some analysis basically about the French election that is upcoming, which was called by Emmanuel Macrone after the shock win of Marine Le Penn's party in the European parliamentary elections.
What Arnold Batrand says.
Here is that the left quote got their shit together quote very fairly fast, almost immediately, announcing the creation of a popular front that gathers all of the left wing parties. Let's go to the next part, he says. It's on the right that things have really started to go wild. After the president of one of the major center right parties, the Party of Jacques Chirac and of Nicholas Sarkozi, announced that he would then do an alliance with Marine la Penn's party.
Let's go to the next one, he says.
Almost immediately though, top officials in that party started saying that person was speaking in their name only and he needed to resign from the party's presidency. And now there is some major infighting as to who who is managing this party. Are they going to ally with Leapenn or not. Let's go continue, he says. Meanwhile, Macrone is quote shooting at this newly formed Popular Front, saying that those who are joining it are quote anti Semites, so we're bringing
some of the Israel stuff into this. And because the left wing party coalition quote campaigned for a lot of Palestinians, so obviously that makes them and everyone with them anti Semitic. So continue if we want here in some of this analysis, if we look at the actual projections, it looks like right now, and this is from the Financial Times, that the far right block his words of Marine Lapen and some of the leftovers of the right wing are in
the lead for three hundred and sixty two seats. The left wing block, the so called Popular Front, is in the lead with two hundred and eleven seats. Meanwhile Macrone's party is in the lead in just three seats, and none of these three seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people. And then that old center right party is in the lead for just one. So remember, as he said, the election is two rounds.
The projections for the second round or the left and the far right would battle it out for the five hundred and thirty six seeds, but that the Macron alliance would only make the runoff in some forty one seats. So basically it quote looks like they will essentially destroy Macronism as a political force in France. Either that is somehow ninety chess that no one understands, or his dissolution of the French Parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.
Is it ninety chess or is it hungry hungry hippos.
Yeah, I'm thinking hungry hungry hipo probably dumber than hungry hungry ht BO. I mean, look, I mean, I think it's fascinating because I don't again, I don't really know why he's doing this at all. What we do know here is that the Neo Lib consensus in France, which leading indicator I would say for the rest of the continent,
it's dead. It's either left or right, and actually like left or right in terms of who is going to win here and La Penn and her party, it's looking like a historic for them d act's release genuinely take power, and this is ahead of the twenty twenty seven election, where if they do so, I mean, this destroys Emmanuel Macron his entire legacy as the president of France, and his real legacy would almost be like Obama ushering in this new era as opposed to actually doing anything himself.
It is remarkable. I think he was betting on, which
is usually a safe bet, left wing dysfunction. Yes, he was thinking that the lefties wouldn't be able to get their shit together, wouldn't form this popular front, which they did very quickly and were able to, you know, announce cannons in all of these seats, an incredible feat of organizational muscle from you know, a group of individuals who are not really known for such and so he thought they would remain splintered and then he would be able to bet on you know what is he hopes still
a majority revulsion towards the far right in La Penn and be able to convince peeople like the lesser of two Evils kind of a vote once again and be able.
To potentially pick up seats.
Instead, they did get their act together, and so as you were laying out, you know what will happen is you'll have an initial vote in all of these districts and then the top two vote getting parties then built head to the runoff. So if you're not in the top two, that's it.
Game over. They're leading in three seats.
Their only potentially making it's the runoff in right now projected some forty seats.
So you're done.
Now you have the left and the right battling it out for the future. And listen, I don't want to read too much into it, but I think when you look here and you look at the negative approval ratings for you know, G seven leaders, When you look at Joe Biden and you know the disgust for him and his the sense that the economy is going backwards and the country's on the wrong track, which has really been a sentiment that's been picking up and picking up over
the years. It's just pretty clear that for most people in these countries they feel, not that they would articulate it this way, but they feel that the neoliberal consensus that has reigned for you know, forty plus years, really started under Jimmy Carter and then sort of solidified under Ronald Reagan and then Bill Clinton, it has failed them. It has failed to deliver secure economic security for them.
It has failed to deliver higher wages. It is increasingly funneled more and more and more wealth to the very top it has not had any significant answers for you know, various societal issues, and so they're they're done with it. I also think it's really interesting in the context of macrona I brought this up before, but again has some you know, potential implications for Joe Biden. Although you don't want to read too much into these things because they
have such a different political system than we do. But Macron did try to He realized immigration was a big problem for him. He tried to do more hardline things. They were so significant that you know, Lapen was saying, hey, this is an ideological win for me. Macron's own party was rejecting it and wouldn't vote for it, et cetera. And surprise, surprise, Like if you're an immigration hardliner, that wasn't going to enoy, Like that wasn't going to make
you fall in love with Emmanuel Macron. And same in the US as Biden tries to signal this, you know, let me be more hardline on immigration shift, you're not gonna win over Trump supporters, Like if your immigration is your top issue, you're still not voting for Joe Biden. So that ploy really hasn't worked for mcron. It hasn't worked for any of the European leaders, and I don't think it's going to work for Joe Biden either.
It's complicated. I agree.
In terms of the politics there also, I would say the polling here is so radically shifting. We should cover this tomorrow. I've been sending some stuff. I'll save some of my comments on that. Let's put this up there on the screen because this highlights exactly what you're talking about. Look here at the approval ratings for the G seven leaders. So you've got olof Schaltz minus fifty one in Germany, Trudeau minus thirty eight in Canada, minus thirty one for
Macron in France, minus ten for Maloney in Italy. She somehow is the most popular lady on the entire stage. Bidenus eight eighteen point five for his approval rating. Kashida in Japan is at minus forty.
I don't know what's going on in Japan. I need to look into that more.
And then Rischie Sunak takes the cake minus fifty four. So, like you said, each of these are individual leaders. Each of these have individual circumstances, but we are more connected than at any time before. And you know, one of the things about globalization is that all of our economies look more similar today than they ever did in the past.
So what we can generally surmise across all of these is that you have a deceleration of wealth, you know, for the bottom tranch, or really the bottom half of a lot of these societies, safety sets, safety social nets
or not. In general, economic opportunity is being divided. You see higher inflation against all all of these economies, and in each one there is a asking of the new generation, which is flirting with left and right politics which have not been seen in any of these countries in decades. You see this with the rise of a major right wing coalition in Japan. You see the AfD doing incredibly well in Germany, I believe, in Canada and in France you're seeing some similar dynamics.
And then Italy.
Of course, Maloney herself was heralded allegedly as some like right wing personnel, though she's governed very differently while she's in office, but at the very least in every instance, you know, if we're seeing a flirting with different types of politics, which we're unheard of really in the last forty five years or so, which means some sort of new quote unquote world order. No conspiracy is likely inevitable
if we are to hue two democracy. I mean, let's be said, honest, though we could go in the other direction. Just because they're unpopular doesn't mean that they couldn't become a more dictatorial and controlling and censorship ridden to try and control the current world order that we are in. I think that's the more likely path because all of them have such a religious devotion, for example, to Ukraine.
I mean, this entire some is basically just being a slave to Ukraine and being like, oh, here's fifty billion more dollars and we're with you until the very end, and let's endorse your BS peace conference and all of this other stuff. But again, they're doing so in a very unpopular manner if you look at the feedback from
all of the actual democracies for what's happening. So that's really I think the only way that we can connect, and why I think the France example is so important is because it really is part of a global phenomenon just previously, like we saw with Brexit last time in twenty fifteen.
Yeah, and I think it's important to say too, because you could look at those numbers and go, oh, well, I mean, first of all, Joe Biden's doven better than a lot of these people. Second of all, you can say, oh, well, they're just like a victim of circumstance because they had COVID and now you've got inflation as a result of COVID, and so people are very upset about that, and they're blaming their leaders, even though you know, there's a consistent
theme across the countries. So it's not all the leader's fault. But if we look then at the numbers for AMLO in Mexico, where they also struggled with, you know, inflation and GDP growth isn't astronomical though there is a lot of you know, there's increasing as there's been more moved towards near shoring and away from China. There is a lot of economic possibility for Mexico right now that I
think people are there are very excited about. But you had a different economic program that actually delivered wage increases, significant wage increases beyond notably beyond inflation for average Mexican workers. And so because of that, in spite of the difficult global circumstances. You know, Amlo one of the most popular leaders in the entire world. So it's not that, you know, they're just a victim of fate and circumstance and there
was absolutely nothing that they can do. People have rightly judged that there were other pathways open to them and they didn't take it, and that they aren't focused on delivering for their lives. Instead, they're focused on, you know, backing Israel and they're endless assault against Gaza and backing Ukraine in what has become, you know, a hopeless situation,
rather than improving the lives of their own tax paying citizens. So, you know, I think some of those themes are probably very consistent across those countries.
Well, there's a couple lessons.
So, like I just said, I have the most popular leaders in front of me. Some of the one of these surveys is actually after the Indian election, even though India Mody suffered a setback, he and Amlo are the two most popular leaders in the world.
What can you at least say about those two leaders.
Neither would ever be accused of being quote unquote neoliberal, and in fact have explicitly rejected over the implicit neoliberal consensus. So in India's case, you have the Congress Party, this was the neoliberal party being powerful decades, very similar actually to Mexico, and they're part of ruling coalition.
Mody comes in and basically sweeps it.
Off the table, turns it almost into an irrelevant political force whose only victory is winning a few more seats but still not being in power. Amlo very similar basically just delivered this huge mandate for his party in Mexico despite I mean a lot of troubling coalition, troubling problems, but at the very least in Mexico, the ruling previously ruling center right party, they're not in the discussion as part of the actual solution. The voters don't even count
them in their minds. So I think in both of those cases we could see that if you are willing to move in that direction, you can reape massive political rewards in either of those However, you know, the g seven these economies, like I said, these are the most highly developed economies in the world in a certain sense, like the elites of all of those countries do control things at a much higher level, whereas in a developing nation, I think, for some reason.
You know, you.
Can both have like lots of oligarchy, but you can have some sort of democratic revolt, and institutions are not nearly as entrench and are probably easier to take on in that certain scenario. So, I mean, it's a fascinating discussion honestly, Like we said about the whole new world order and what that may look like as opposed to we really have two options like going down the path of democracy or more control, more censorship.
They'll probably try for the former. The only question is actually going to work.
Yeah, and of course to bring it back to the US, even as we have a number of third party candidates on the ballot, because of the nature of our system, we don't really have a non neoliberal option. We have Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Donald Trump, Matt Stiller did a phenomenal piece. We're actually going to try to have him on the show to talk about it. About the way Trump doesn't even talk about going after business anymore.
It doesn't even pretend.
Instead he's in these fundraising rooms promising them everything that they could possibly want. And we know, of course when he was in office, well he did do some things, especially vias of v China, Visa ve renegotiating NAFTA that were different in a genuine break from the past neoliberal consensus. The primary accomplishment was the Tax Cut Jobs Act, which was sitting on the shelf from the neoliberal Reaganite type
of system. That's one of his primary promises moving forward is We're going to make sure we continue those tax cuts, so you really.
Don't have another option.
Although stylistically Trump gives the vibes of being a real threat to the system even as he's promising them like no, no, no, I'm going to do what you want, and billionaires are responding to that. I mean, this is another way going back to how the coalitions are shifting. You know, under Obama and Hillary and Biden. Last time around, Wall Street really started going for Democrats. They're going back to Republicans.
Now they're going back to backing Trump. They feel very comfortable with him because they don't like under Biden the antitrust move and the more pro labor postures. So in any case, that's part of what makes our system unique and in my opinion, uniquely bad, is that we don't really have any options beyond the status quo.
Yeah, certainly, especially in the modern era didn't always used to be like this, though, at least back in eighteen hundreds and early ninety hundreds,