4/15/25: Trump Floats US Citizens To El Salvador, Trump Approval Craters, China Cuts Off Boeing - podcast episode cover

4/15/25: Trump Floats US Citizens To El Salvador, Trump Approval Craters, China Cuts Off Boeing

Apr 15, 20251 hr 11 min
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Summary

Krystal and Saagar analyze Trump's plan to send US citizens to El Salvador's prisons, examine his declining approval ratings, and discuss China's retaliation against Boeing. They delve into the implications of Trump's immigration policies, the impact of tariffs on the economy, and the political fallout from these decisions. The discussion also explores the credibility of the administration's claims and the potential consequences for American citizens and industries.

Episode description

Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump floats US citizens to El Salvador, Trump approval tanks, China cuts off Boeing.

 

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

Speaker 2

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Speaker 1

We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today, extra amazing because Crystal is back.

Speaker 2

Thanks, thank yousing me back here in the chair. We have a lot of stuff on the show, but actually before we even get to the show bar and all the stuff that's going on there, we have some pretty significant show announcements.

Speaker 3

About things that we are up to.

Speaker 2

So first of all, you guys know we've been doing this like ad hoc Friday.

Speaker 3

We've been calling it a mini show. Whoever can show up.

Speaker 2

We were able to get all four of us together last Friday, which were super cool. Saga was able to join. It's been Me and Ryan, Me and Ryan and Emily whoever can sort of join. So we have decided, thanks to you guys as support out there making this happen, that we are going to officially make a Friday show

a thing. That's right, So going forward, expanding out to the full five weekdays for Breaking Points to Slash Counterpoints, and we're also going to do an extra bonus second half that is going to be gated and exclusive for premium subscribers. So big deal for us in our expansion here. And I guess it's kind of the opposite of a recession in that's right, you know, taking a bit of a risk at this point.

Speaker 1

As much as we have said about being conservative, we just see the appetite and we know how much it means to our premium subscribers and to all of our audience to officially be five days week. So if you guys can help us out Breakingpoints dot Com, we are genuinely taking a financial risk in this, you know, obviously making Ryan and Emily a bigger part of the entire

not even bigger part of the show. They are, you know, all four of us together are now really coming together as a team as an Avengers to make sure that there's five days a week of coverage. You guys saw the bro Show yesterday, the mix in the match and all of that is enabled because of you to be able to provide that we are going to be going live on a lot more occasions, and so we do have the AMA live there in our show bar. That is something that we do after today's show that we

will wrap. I will have, by the way, a surprise announcement, just a personal announcement that will drop exclusively in our AMA and for our premium subscribers early. But more importantly, this is just about being able to find five days

a week, more opportunities for lives. We're building more opportunities to get the breaking points, community actually engaged, utilizing our platform, be able to deliver the show in any possible way that we can, and so broadly, this is just about taking a risk at this time when we know that as financial precarity for all of you and also frankly for us, but we do still feel that it's really really important to try and to take this risk right now, and so that's just something if you could help us

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Speaker 2

Yep, So thank you guys so much for your support. Onward and upward. Excited about what is to come for the year for breaking points, and I really enjoy that Friday.

Speaker 3

Shows like the Friday Show.

Speaker 1

I like it too, It's fun.

Speaker 2

It would be with the pace of news, the Monday show would be just unmanageable.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it would just pretty late, and it would be edited. And yeah, I mean originally.

Speaker 3

It's a Monday.

Speaker 2

All the stuff that happened on Friday, it's like old news because thirty five other major things.

Speaker 1

Have happened, So it is inconceivable. And mean when we launched, you know, just penciling budget and all of that, we were looking at three days and we're like, oh, maybe we can make this work. And so to be in a position where we have you know, not just us, it's not even just about the four people you guys see in front of the camera. There's a whole team of people in the room back over there making sure this stuff gets cranked out on you know, it's edited.

We have entire novel processes that we've actually developed. You know, I've spoken with many creators and they are blown away by our timeline and the team that we have assembled that is able to export a show, deliver it across multiple different platforms, and do all of these things. I mean they're working on a weekly editing basis. Our guys can turn it around in sometimes twenty two minutes. Yeah, very often they're editing things on the fly. It's incredible.

And again it's literally all because of the people who sign up. So thank you they really is a thank you to enable us to be able.

Speaker 3

Yeah, when the show goes down late, it's not their fault. It is our fault.

Speaker 1

No, it is right much usually the problem, I promise you. Yeah, for the thousands of dollars where we have spent on equipment and all these other things, state of the art stuff that is running back there, and anything late is because of our because of us. It is absolutely not because of them.

Speaker 2

All right, So let me run quickly through the show bar here. We had Bkelly at the White House yesterday, Trump announcing that he wants to send US citizens now to Bekelly's torture Dungeons. So we'll talk about that. Trump approval rating is down. We've got the latest numbers. He has announced he maybe backing off some of the auto terrifts. At the same time, we're getting new retaligation from China. They've halted all Boeing orders. Dave Smith is going to

join us. Don't know if you guys checked out any of his debate with Douglas Murray on Joe Rogan's podcast. Going to get his reaction to that and some other things as well, especially some of the crackdown on any dissent visa. The israel I am taking a look at Trump's tariff war as class war.

Speaker 3

Sager, what should I say about your model?

Speaker 1

I just say it's a surprise. It's a surprise for everybody who's there just book recommendations. That's on joke, caamjo. There's something there that I'll you can find out if you become a premium subscriber.

Speaker 2

You will find out eventually whether you're a premium subscriber or not. But previous subscribers in that AMA Live will give you the sneak peek. Okay, let's go ahead and get to the Oval Office. Yesterday, President of al Salvador Naiba Kelly was in town. Obviously, this was very significant for a number of reasons. This administration has sent somewhere around at this point, about two hundred and fifty migrants

into that prison. We now know that approximately ninety percent of them, in spite of being told that they were gang members, and the worst of the worst, ninety percent have no criminal record. We have learned some of the details of those individuals, and one of those individuals, in particular, Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the administration admitted that they sent him there in air. The Supreme Court then came in and said, you got to try to get this guy back. You

have to facilitate his release. They are just completely stonewalling. They're pretending like the Supreme Court actually sided with them and said they don't have to do anything. So a lot of questions about what the response from Bkelly would be,

how Trump would interact with him, et cetera. But before any of that occurred, the two of them, Trump and Bkelly were actually caught on a hot mic with Trump, and you have to listen carefully, but Trump telling Bukelly that next he wants to send to his prisons the quote unquote homegrowns and that bikelly may.

Speaker 3

Need to build five more of those.

Speaker 2

Facilities to house the US citizens that Trump now wants to send to that notorious Seacott facility. Let's take a listen to how that went down.

Speaker 3

Yeah, they stood growing next the home runs.

Speaker 4

You get a book about five more places.

Speaker 3

Yeah that's great, all right, it's not big enough. Yeah, come on, And it wasn't only in this hot mic moment. Apparently the El Salvador press was there, but the whole pool wasn't it.

Speaker 2

I don't know where that stream came from, but they were streaming that live and obviously we are.

Speaker 1

It was the El Salvadoran government. It wasn't even in Salvador in media. Now, why exactly? Elso, if we're in government is allowed to live stream straight from the Oval Office, that's beyond me. That's probably the tertiary amount of concerns as well as mister outfit that was happening. You're you're

absolutely right. There were a number of comments made there by President Trump in the Oval Office very defiant on the Upbrego Garcia case, as well as proposing on multiple occasions sending US citizens to this prison let's take a listen.

Speaker 2

And sup you said that if the Supreme Court said someone needed to be returned, that you would abide by that. You said that on Air Force one just a few days ago, and they said that it must be facilitating. And you just say, isn't it wonderful that we're keeping criminals out of our country?

Speaker 1

Why can't you just say that? Why do you go over and over and that's why nobody watches you anymore? You know you have no credibility.

Speaker 4

Please go ahead, promise you if he was your neighbor, you wouldn't move right away, So you don't plan the Supreme Court.

Speaker 3

In the Supreme Court, siave, was it nine to nothing?

Speaker 4

Yes, there's a ninety zero in our favor. In our favor against the district court ruling saying that no district court has the power to compel the foreign policy function of the United States. As Pam said, the ruling solely stated that if this individual at El salvad Or sole discretion was set back to our country, that we could deport him a second time.

Speaker 5

How can I model the terrorists into the United States.

Speaker 3

I don't have the power to return him to the United States.

Speaker 5

So you can release the inside. Yeah, but I'm not releasing I mean, we're not very fond of releasing terrorists into our country.

Speaker 3

We just turned the murder capital of the world to the safest country of the Western Hemisphere.

Speaker 1

And you want us to go back into the releasing criminals so we can go back to being the murdered capital of the world.

Speaker 3

Now that's that's not going to be.

Speaker 4

Well, they'd love to have a criminal you know.

Speaker 3

I mean, I mean, there's a fascination.

Speaker 4

They would love it.

Speaker 2

Yeah, they're great facilities, very strong facilities, and.

Speaker 6

They don't play games.

Speaker 1

I'd like to go step further.

Speaker 4

I mean, I say, I said it to Pam.

Speaker 2

I don't know what the laws are. We always have to obey the laws, but we also have homegrown criminals that push people into subways.

Speaker 3

I'd like to include them in the group of people to get them out of the country.

Speaker 1

So you can see they're not only doubling down. But the most significant comment made from bu Kelly was saying, quote, I don't what did he say. I don't have the power to bring back a Breago Garcia. This is where it is obviously preposterous. Bu Kelly is getting paid six million dollars from the United States government. Furthermore, he has literal, unilatal authority over who goes in and out of Seacotts,

so he actually could release him if he could. And this is one where the government and Stephen Miller is

saying there, oh, it was. I mean, he is correct in that it's nine to oh by saying it is nine oh in not ordering it in the same way the district judge said, you have to go get him back, but it was very clear about the facilitation of return and what was it turned it over to the district court, where there continues to be adjudication over specifically the lengths and the process through which the United States must return our Brego Garcia. It is clear cut, it is beyond obvious.

You know, the state, the state admitted in its court filing a Brago Garcia should not have been sent to El Salvador, period, end of story. We can talk all day long about the hold on the deportation order, et cetera, but it is clear as day he had to hold for deportation. He was sent there by their own admission. It was a quote unquote mistake. The Stephen Miller has now claimed that it was an actual mistake to admit that it was a mistake, and that is not true.

That fired solicitor general who said that in court filing. Apparently I was actually reading from a legal expert that he has a decent enough case for defamation actually against the government because they're claiming that he basically lied in a court filing.

Speaker 2

Johnathan Turley, who is a Republican Trump sympathetic Fox News kind of a guy, who was like, he's got a case for defamation. Yeah, the dude that they fired because he admitted in court that this was a mistake, which also wasn't just admitted in court. It also, Asager said, was part of this court filing. He's been there for fifteen years. He served in the same or similar role under the first Trump administration.

Speaker 3

You know, he has been a.

Speaker 2

Reliable advocate for whatever the government's position has been. So yeah, Stephen Miller called him a saboteur and a democrat if he was in there intentionally trying to blow up this case. I just want to read for everybody because what Stephen Miller is portraying here and were publicans are trying to portray the Supreme Court decision as is just total and complete garbage. Let me read to you the specific language of this order that came down from the Supreme Court.

They say the rest of the District Court's order remains in effect, but requires clarification. That's what they're holding their whole thing on, is this line that requires clarification. The order properly requires the government to facilitate Abario Garcia is released from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had

he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended scope of the term effectuate in the District's court order is however, unclear and may exceed the District Court's authority. The District Court should clarify its directive with due regard for the deference owed to the Executive branch in the

conduct of foreign affairs. So they didn't even say don't effectuate or that was wrong, and they're saying we want some clarification from the District Court here, But they said incredibly clearly that they need the government needs to facilitate the release, and they also tell the government that it needs to be prepared to share what it can concerning the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps.

The government has completely stonewalled here. They're lying about what the order actually said, and just think about it, like taking the legalies out of it from.

Speaker 3

A human perspective. If you fuck up, you try to fix it.

Speaker 2

This is a fuck up of massive life altered proportions. We have no idea at this point what the condition of this man is. He's been sent into this prison known for human rights abuses, for withholding food.

Speaker 3

We know that an extraordinary number.

Speaker 2

Of detainees there have actually died while they're in custody. This is a horrible place to be that he has been wrongly sent to, and not just him, by the way of the two hundred and thirty original immigrants who were sent there, as I mentioned, ninety percent no criminal record, five had felony arrest records.

Speaker 3

Five and we're told these were the worst of the worst.

Speaker 2

So on top of all of that, what we've been warning about is, hey, if you can throw these people into this dungeon for life with no due process. This isn't just about what they can do to immigrants. This is about what they can do to anyone.

Speaker 3

This is about.

Speaker 2

All of our rights. What could have kept them? Since their position is once they're a Alsalvador, it's over, it's gone. We can't do anything. In Bekelly's position is I can't do anything either. What is to keep them from sending anyone that they want? And as long as they get the plane in the air before the court can come in and say you can't do that, then they can

do whatever they want to people. And so when you have Trump here, not only on the hot mic, and he had previously said, hey, maybe I'll send American citizens there on the hot mic, telling Bakelly, next up is the homegrowns. You need to build more facilities, and then confirmed in the questioning and he said he made this comment that I wanted to get your reaction to, in particular Soger. He said specifically in response to a reporter asking if he would deport US citizens.

Speaker 3

Quote what you think they're a special category?

Speaker 1

Yes? Right, yeah, I mean thought right? What thoughts? I mean? It's just outrageous. And I think what people need to understand is that the step by step that the government has taken is one that has revealed itself over the last several months. I keep resuscitating an old Vietnam term credibility gap, and the credibility gap is, like you said, they said that it was the worst of the worst. Now we know categorically now that that is just simply

not true considering the overall criminal record. They also said that they were using a tattoo or whatever to identify, which actually sounds you know, it rings true to a lot of people. That's very often the gangs use tattoos to do affiliation. Go look at any prison system in the United States. It's one of the number one ways

that you do gang classification. Right. So but again, now we have continued to see there's huge holes in the story, and there's been a number of these people of a gay barber for example, being one of them, where it is just like blatantly obvious that at the very least, like what they're saying is completely untrue, if not outright false. Then you take it a step further. For deportation, initially it was about illegal aliens present in the United States

or people who had applied for asylum. So, okay, you know this is one where you can't necessarily or it was still in my opinion, still a jump from there. To people who are here legally and or who are

here US citizens. But the jump now, and I have spoken with multiple legal experts, is that this one in particular is the one that most definitively applies to United States citizens because the custody, the custody, the custody at question is specifically about this else that the government position is taking is that once they are in El Salvador in custody, there is nothing that you can do for

them that actually does not have any legal limitation. Alien Enemies Act, believe it or not, actually does whenever it comes to a US citizen. There are multiple other you know, you've even seen, for example, many of these Palestinian proactivist students who are getting or trying to get deported, they're still going through a due process like you know, deportation order. Alien Enemies Act was definitely over here. But the specific question here at hand legally is one that has no

limiting principle whatsoever. And actually, I would point to Ed Whalen, this is very important for people to see a three police Let me just Ed Ed, and I need to contextualize that Ed is one of the most conservative lawyers and legal minds here in Washington. Ed is a guy who went to bat harder than anyone I know for Brett Kavanaugh. That's I'm trying to contextualize who this person is.

I really ideological ground. Unless you're unless you're in the mold in the DC world, you don't quite understand how important it is for Ed to speak out on something like this. So okay, with all that on the on the table, quote outrageous, misterpresentation of the Supreme Court ruling.

The unanimous Court rule that a district Court order properly requires the government to facilitate Upbrego Garcia's release from custody in Nail Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled, and it would have been had he not been improperly

sent to l Salvador. Yes. The Court also stated that the intended scope of the term effectuate in the district Court's order is, however, unclear and may exceed the district court authority, and it told the district courts to clarify its directive with due regard for the deference owed to Executive branch and the conduct of foreign affairs. But due regard does not mean the district Court couldn't give any

teeth to effectuate. In any event, the district court dropped effectuate from its revised order, so this is all irrelevant. The duty to facilitate continues. And that's what the government is saying, is that their only duty to facilitate is that if Bucell were to release Abrego Garcia from the what was it from prison, that they would fly him back to the United States, proceed with a due deportation through a due process proceeding, and then he would be

sent back to l Salvador. But at the very least like that is still one which fits within the bounds of the law. And that is not what we see right now from the Trump administration. And they have stretched it,

you know, ten times farther than any before. And in fact, it does appear that they're trying to pick fights with the courts over their immigration nationality authority specifically, but in this particular case, as I want to come back to, the truth is is that everything they have said on this process and you know, look, this requires me a

help with from people like me. I never, in my wildest dreams imagined that you would just simply snatch people up who had nothing to do with I mean, for example, we have eight to ten million gang members, right, sorry, eight to ten million illegal immigrants. Is it really implausible there are two hundred, you know, gang members President of

the United States, I honestly don't think so. I am relatively familiar with gang proceedings and others in the criminal justice system, their gang enhancements and others at state by state level. This is something that cops do every day.

Would it really have entered that wildest dream to think that you would take somebody and look at their administrative paperwork and then mistakenly deport that individual and then claim, you know, without any without really without even walking back any claims around this, to say that this is somebody to be deported to tell someone it's also similarly, it's very different than to go through a deportation proceeding for being sent back to El Salvador than it is to

facilitate the actual entry into this prison as a behest of the United States government. That direction also matters. So if Abrago Garcia went through the normal deportation process and was sent to Al Salvador and they decided to put him in prison, okay, that's a different thing. It fundamentally is because that's not something that was facilitated, paid for, and done at the behest of the United States government in this particular case, that is absolutely not what has happened.

And I think it is very clear that the government is trying to stretch it now to this point and at this it is a breaking point name of the show. This is one where you must stand up against what the current government is doing, specifically because it does apply to United States citizens. There is not a single limiting principle that can be held here. And it's not about Alien Enemies Act, It's not even really about illegal versus legal.

There is nothing under the current logic that would stop them from doing this to any United States citizen who would mistakenly be deported. And if we are then to assume and now look at the obvious credibility gap within the White House, at their shoddy procedures at not even shoddy,

I mean just outright fake. Basically at this point the MS thirteen East Coast gang leader and thing that we saw, no reasonable individual, in my opinion, could have confidence in the current Department Homeland Security to be able to fundamentally distinguish and make sure that there is enough of a coult process that is being put in place there to ensure that no United States sitting would ever be mistakenly deported under this current regime, especially in the way that

it has all been implemented at this time. So we can look step by step at all the processes easily in hindsight and say this was not true, this was not true, this was not true, this is being handled differently, this is now here. And the limiting principle, which is like an often thing you should look like, especially with legal and others. As I said, I've spoken with many, many legal minds, and the only thing stopping them is their own behest of not being able to do something.

And that's just simply not good enough in my opinion, you know, I mean, what they're really asking for is trust, and I just don't think that any reasonable person who is now looking at this can have any trust whatsoever in the procedure that they put place or any of the statements that they have forward on MS thirteen trend de Agua, especially with the arrests of that so called East Coast gang leader and then many of the arrests

that have been made now so far. So anyway, that's my long winded way of just saying I think this is incredibly dangerous, and I do think that I've seen fire and numerous or other organizations stand up. I've seen ed Whalen and others as well, and so that's also I think that allows for calibration. And I understand a lot of MAGA is in a place where they don't want to take you know, they find it annoying that

they call them a Maryland. It's like, okay, fine, we can talk later about illegal and illegal status, because it's actually not about that right now now, And that's the kind of the point I want to get across. This is not about illegal immigration. This specific case is not about illegal immigration, period. It really is about courts, and it is also about principles which would course apply to anybody.

And under that current regime, then no, without any limiting power on the government, that there is nothing stopping from a US citizen. It's clear now that Donald Trump, if he says it, you know, we have to take him seriously at this point as well. It is now clear also that many of the guardrails which you know, frankly I thought would be there, I've obviously fallen apart or

not even fallen apart. It's just that there are willing participants and they view everything as some sort of like left right media game, almost like you and I debating here on this show. And it's like with the tariffs, it's like with signal Gate, it's like with all of these other things. It's like, No, this is about real people's life, like you, people are in the government. This is not a CNN panel where we're trying to joust here about who's right and who's wrong.

Speaker 2

These people, they want them to stay in this torture dungeon for life.

Speaker 3

People who did nothing wrong.

Speaker 2

Nothing, I mean, many of these individuals, the ones that the media has been able to track down, they went through the process, like they showed, they got their ap point. They're going through the asylum process. Now we can have a lot of conversations about that asylum process. They did nothing wrong. They were following the process as it was set out. Ninety percent no criminal record, sentenced to a

life of torture and misery. And the administration knows that, they know that, they're not fools, they know what they've done.

Speaker 3

It's evil.

Speaker 2

I mean, there's just no other word to sending people who are innocent, who have committed no crime, done nothing wrong, to rot in a prison cell known for torture and human rights abuse for life. That's what we're talking about here. And you mentioned, you know, a breaking point yesterday. I had the same reaction of you know, obviously I was concerned about this administration coming in. I've been deeply concerned

about the actions that have been taken. I you know, when this initially occurred, I was really deeply concerned about where not only that action, but where would ultimately lead. But now you have them in open defiance of the Supreme Court, I mean, just lying about what the Supreme Court even said. You have them committing to keep so when they admitted they messed up by sending down to this prison, they are dead set on keeping that man in that prison for his entire life, however long that lasts.

And now on camera multiple times, Trump is out there.

Speaker 3

Next up is American citizens.

Speaker 2

That is a dramatic escalation of authoritarianism. And I'm glad to see you know yourself, I'm glad to see others. I'm glad to see Ied Whalen. But I have to say, not one Republican politician, not.

Speaker 1

One yeah, they can't.

Speaker 3

Not a Ran Paul, not a Thomas Massy.

Speaker 1

Yes they can, well, yes they can't.

Speaker 2

Can but we've seen, i mean on certain issues they have broken with this president occasionally and to just completely like these are people who hold them so oh, here's the constitution, and who've held themselves down as these constitutional conservatives. The president of the United States plans to completely deny due process to US citizens and throw them in a foreign prison. And not one person wants to speak out about that. That to me is astonishing. And let me

go ahead and put up on the screen. Let's go to these last pieces, this most recent case that we're learning about, because the more we're learning about these individuals, the more you can see like they just anyone they could grab.

Speaker 3

Who is Venezuelan they grabbed? Put up.

Speaker 2

I believe it's a six guys, This nineteen year old migrant from Venezuela who had come with his dad. This is a photo of him with his father. Put the next piece up on the screen. This was by this news outlet, it's called Documented. So they were living in New York. This is the kind of quintessential story. They got their they came across the border. They got put on a bus to the infamous Roosevelt Hotel in New York. They're working at actually unpacking Timu packages by the airport.

Speaker 1

There's a lot going on.

Speaker 2

And so his son is coming back to the apartment after running some errands and just steps from his home, ICE agents stop him. They grab him and two other boys right at the entrance of our building. This is his father, one said. One of the ICE agents said, no, he's not the one, like they were looking for someone else.

But the other said, take him anyway. This one no criminal record, did not even have a tattoo, you know, not that that's any sort of justification, but they knew this, this isn't the right guy, and they snatched him up anyways, And now he is his father's beside himself, and he is in this prison potentially for life or until you know, another administration decides they're going to do something.

Speaker 3

In the game that Trump and Bkelly are playing here, Trump.

Speaker 2

Is saying, oh, I couldn't possibly, but I don't have the power over what's going on in El Salvador, and but Kelly say, oh, I don't have the power to get him out of prison. Like both of you do, you both do you don't think that Trump has power?

Speaker 3

It's El Salvador.

Speaker 2

But Kelly has decided to like completely align himself with Trump. Yesterday he tweeted out after he left, oh my god, I miss you already called President she or something like that.

Speaker 3

We are paying them.

Speaker 2

We have a contract, six million dollar contract with them to keep these people in this prison. If Trump said yesterday to the Kelly, hey, we need we messed up.

Speaker 3

We need to get that guy back, it would be done. It would be over.

Speaker 2

But Kelly is running on salved Or under state of exception. He can do whatever he wants.

Speaker 1

Yeah, true is literally martial law.

Speaker 2

And by the way, there were some of the people that we had tried to deport to this prison, several women that were included that though they were like, no, we're not taking women that they sent back, so they clearly have the power to send some people back.

Speaker 1

They also apparently rejected people who were also from other Central American countries to that's.

Speaker 3

Great, because they were worried about.

Speaker 1

The Central American politics.

Speaker 2

Yeah, so you're more worried about that than the United States of America. I mean, it's just they And to your point about the guardrails. You know the Supreme Court did mess up here, because you have to know at this point, I think John Robbers trying to play this game and be too cute of let me give them a little bit, let me give them some wins, let me give them something that they get. No, if you don't tell them no, you cannot do. You must get

him back. If you give them even the little tiniest bit of anything, they will do exactly what they did here.

Speaker 3

Lie about what.

Speaker 2

You said, refuse to do anything whatsoever. And this has now been kicked back to the district court. They're supposed to be providing updates every day. They've just basically refused to do that, certainly in the way that the court has ordered them to do. And they are certainly inching up to that district court judge holding them in contempt. I fully expect that to go back to the Supreme Court. So there are still things working their way through the

judicial process. But at this point you have to say that they are openly defined certainly the spirit of the court order. They are have laid down a marker that if they can get the plane in the air, then they can do nothing. Then you know, as long as they are quick enough, then they can deny people's rights. They can act completely extra constitutionally, do whatever they want, and even when they get caught and admit a complete screw up, they still don't care. They think that these

people should be there for life. It is absolutely outrageous.

Speaker 1

That's why I think that the way that it was set out is very important to see and see exactly like you said, at the current thing, there is no simple limiting principle on the government's action, and that is genuinely extraordinary. Like we can have conceptual debates about planes and judges and being able to turn things around about gang members. Listen, I happily debate anybody all day long as whether any of these people even should have been

in the United States or we're abusing the process. But it's one of those where that is actually not what

is on the table right now. Right Like if we let's think about this just conceptually, if the government had arrested Obrego Garcia and gone through the standard deportation process, of which there was a very good so he's getting deported, period, He's gone, this nineteen year old, and then no one would even know his name and if then the n Salvadorians, if they want to throw him in prison, that's their business.

This nineteen year old, by their own admission, this guy came here because he didn't have enough money in Venezuela. He's not even pretending that he was fleeing gang violence or whatever. Same thing. You don't even have a claim of asylum. You're going home under a standard deportation process, Chris. So I'll go to bat on that any day of

the week. That's not the same thing as saying temporary deportation order or temporary deportation hold, then coming around and being like, oh, we're going to send him there, and then we actually we're not going to get back because there's nothing we can do about it. And this is what I want the MAGA folks to really understand, because they are conflating the two. They're saying, oh, I break over,

and I'm like, listen, I'm with you, all right. You know, why is the guy who's been here illegally since twenty eleven doesn't claim asylum till twenty nineteen. Should he really be in the United States?

Speaker 2

No?

Speaker 1

Obviously, for me, I think a lot of people agree with that sentiment. They voted for that. Now, this, this is not even within the realm of when you're asking about Maga and all those other folks. They are so triggered and listen, I emotionally, I understand this. Whenever people, you know, I see the media, Maryland Father and all talking about all this, I get it. I totally understand, because you're basically conveying citizenship effectively on somebody who is

not a citizen. You know, even in a lot of these other cases, they're going to look exactly like what I just did and be like, oh my god. You know, they're claiming this guy is like mother Teresa or whatever, and it's like, okay, well he didn't even follow basic preceps of law. It's not about that right now, because

we can't. And in fact, if the government had simply followed the basic laid out process and had gone through an ice hoold and a deportation order, of which they are well within their ability as they continue to do right now, they could say nothing about nobody except the ACLU and some open borders lawyers will be talking about this. You would be on the most winning ground I'm talking

politically now. However, by doing this, you are actually poisoning the well, just like they did with for any sort of faith and credibility, even from many people who support your supposed policy, to be able to believe a word that you say. And that is where I find myself looking at this, is that there was and this. You know,

you've talked about this with Glenn in particular. He's like, look, nothing stops you from doing the deportation to your own home cut literally nothing, So do that, you know again with the barber guy, like really, like you know, we're really going to take the society and claim seriously like I'm sorry, I don't And you know, fine, we can argue again about that all day long. Fine, send him

back to Venezuela. But you know, sending somebody to a prison, or even in this particular case, admitting that you shouldn't have done so and under no pretense of a process, and then also no pretense of pretending to bring somebody back, It's simply not the same debate. And by putting yourself on this debate, in my opinion, I'm curious what you think. I actually do think this is a big demarcation point for the government where a lot of people, yes, Magapolitan,

and all of them may not be talking. There are a lot of normal conservative MAGA folks and others who agree with deportation, who are like, yeah, I'm out on this one, and I think that they have done that with the tariffs, They've done that with the credibility, a lot of that with Doe. We'll talk about does too, won't we about? You know, some of their redefinitions. At a certain point, you got to get the hood pulled

over from your eyes. You know, you can support a lot of these things in principle and you can also criticize I think a lot of the ways that not even about practicality, but seeing genuinely on the facts of the matter, they're not the same thing as to what the government is trying to argue. Because you know, every time Steven Miller opens his mouth, he's talking to how I am about, oh, somebody who came here legally. It's like, no,

that's not what we're talking about here. Though you could have easily deported him again, nobody would have said anything unless except for the ACLU and a bunch of other like Catholic charities organizations, and nobody really cares what they have to say, but that's not what we're talking about here. You made this into a national case for basically no reason. Well, actually no, I think we do know the reasons, because they want the maximum and this is good. They want

last thing. I'm sorry droning on, but the point about mass deportation is it's actually not happening. It's just the truth is is that the numbers are not that high, and it is obvious that the government is either too incompetent or unable to actually even do what they said they were going to do, which is start with criminals and or whatever, and they're diverting immense amount of resources at the exact same time to these palstain and I mean, you know, you look at these videos of oz Turk.

You know there's like five people there. What what are we doing? What are we doing, you know, for to dedicate all of these resources to this you know, police state on behalf of a foreign government. And then same in the uh sheer ineptitude and either ineptitude or callousness, I don't know which it is for things like this where oh just grab them anyway, So there's no rhyme, there's no reason, And yeah, they've lost they have lost

all credibility in the eyes. I think of any you know, reasonable person who could look at this now at this point, and you know that's uh that they are going to validate the immigrant activists more than anybody else on the planet. And so four or five years from now, if you lose the White House and they mass legalize everybody, that's on you at this point, I really, I really believe that.

Speaker 2

Well because they I mean, you're right that they validated like the worst, the worst fears. I mean literally beyond honestly, and you guys know, like you could accuse me of Trump arrangement syndrome, but I was very concerned about this administration. This is far beyond, far beyond what I what I

could have even come up with. And last thing I'll say is just, you know, to tie in the piece that you were talking about of the crackdown on these student protesters and activists and some people who aren't even activists, all of this is, you know, they're they're workshopping it with immigrants. It will not stay with immigrants. We already obviously already see.

Speaker 3

Him out there.

Speaker 2

The homegrowns are next, okay, And you cannot you should not expect them to get.

Speaker 3

First of all, no American.

Speaker 2

Citizens should just be shipped, even if you are a criminal, should be shipped to this foreign dungeon, in my opinion. But even if you're okay with that, why should you believe this administration when they say, oh, we're going to send the worst of the worst, and they're sending some nineteen year old kid who's done nothing wrong. They're sending the gay makeup artists who's done nothing wrong. They're sending ninety percent of the people they sent no criminal record,

ninety percent, only five had felony convictions. Okay, so what they're testing with the immigrants first is intended for the whole population. And yes, we already have indications of that with Israel's well, we already have proof of that with US citizens who they pressured universities to kick.

Speaker 3

Out of school.

Speaker 1

There.

Speaker 2

They are investigating these pro pales signed protests as terrorism. What's starting in the immigrant community, because that's like the lowest hanging fruit, and they can argue, we're elected to do this, blah blah blah. The plan is to spread that to everyone. So that's why everyone should be concerned about what is going on here, even if you don't care about these particular individuals, you don't care about this particular cause.

Speaker 3

First all, I would say you should.

Speaker 2

But even if you don't, this does not stay with these individuals. There is nothing that means that keeps this infringement on rights among a certain select group of people within the country.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and that's why it's important. As I said, that is not hyperbole. That is quite literally true in the case of the Abrygo Guercy. And that's part of why it's so deeply concerning. Okay, shall we move on to Trump and disapproval rating. I think these two things tie in. I really do. I think there's been a you know, we talked a lot about that vibe shift from November. When when do you think the vibe shift peak February? What do you want to say? I would say February first.

That was before true Doge Idiocy started.

Speaker 3

To say, Okay, I'll give you that, right.

Speaker 1

So it was like it was ten days, nine days into the first Trump administration. We had the ceasefire in Gaza, right, so we could peace post. We had Elon was Elon was around, There were the executive orders, there was the general vibe like okay, and then you know, buy around mid feb that's when I think things really started to shift. Let's go ahead and then talk about Trump's approval rating. So Trump, as we talked about often in the early days, the first month or so, he was doing pretty well,

even with the highest ever for him. You know, he was standing strong on the economy, seemed to be doing incredibly well on immigration. Things have now taken a pretty significant turn for him, and in the same trend line that we saw for Joe Biden after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, except this one is just a mere eighty some days into his first term. Let's take a listen to Harry Anthony breaks a lot of it down.

Speaker 7

I would argue this is the worst set of polling data that Donald Trump has had in his entire second term as president, in part because the CBS News You Go, Paul that came out yesterday has been one of his best. Let's first take a look at how folks are feeling about the state of the economy. Think that the economy is getting worse. What you don't have to be a mathematical genius to see the tre line on your screen, and it is getting worse. More folks are feeling the

economy is going southward. Back in November, it was just forty two percent of Americans who said the economy is getting worse. You jump forward to February, forty nine percent. You jump forward to March fifty one percent. Now look at this number, fifty three percent. The clear majority of Americans think that the economy is getting worse. Donald Trump wants to say, don't blame me if you're upset with the state of the economy, blame the other guy.

Speaker 1

I don't think.

Speaker 7

Americans are buying what he's selling at this particular point, at least anymore more responsible for the economic state. They asked about inflation back in March. Look at this, thirty eight percent, said Joe Biden. Thirty four percent, said Donald Trump. But look at where we are this month when they asked about the general state of the economy. Look at how much higher the Trump number is fifty four percent.

Speaker 1

That Joe Biden percentage drops through the floor at twenty one percent.

Speaker 7

So this idea that Donald Trump will try to sell to the American public is trying to sell the American public, is that it's the other guy.

Speaker 4

It's not me.

Speaker 1

It's that other guy, that old guy, Joe Biden.

Speaker 7

No longer is this being The American public is no longer buying this set of arguments like they were back in March.

Speaker 1

So you could see that the turn from blaming Biden not exactly positive news there for Donald Trump. The more ownership that he has over the economy, the more negative that it will be, especially as we see the conflagration of tariffs, of consumer sentiment and price increases began to cascade. If they do stick to the current policy, don't forget that. Let's go and put this up there on the screen. We saw a similar decline in the overall tracking index

of the approval rating. So what Nate silver flags here is that the precipitous decline that we saw right now, a Trump approval is currently at minus five. But that's quote only. If we used poll since Liberation Day, he would be at minus eight point five instead. That is a pretty significant hit over the span of barely more than a week. He was at minus two point five

on April first, just before Liberation Day. I would also note in particular that the focus right now, if you're just thinking about the people who are all paying attention right to people who are generally looking at the news, etc. Immigration, despite the entire segment we just did, was still very strong ground I think for Donald Trump. But go ahead and put B four up on the screen. This is very important that tariffs have actually moved ahead of immigration

as a top concern for American voters. From the latest poll from Echelon Insights, the very concern number at some seventy percent there, and actually even more concern in the very concern for the tariffs over immigration, with immigration actually falling below a fiftieth percentile, with the majority of the population really focusing in on tariffs, it's just weak ground for Donald Trump because he doesn't even have the conceptual

fallback that he originally would have had rhetorically on the issue. Now it's just all about the process, the whipsaw, the seesaw, the chaos that people can tune in to every day. And that is a very similar feeling, I think to the Biden administration, where they felt as if at the end of the day for inflation, there was no steady hand on the wheel, there was no plan. That's really when Biden sank, right, Yeah, it was twenty twenty two. In my opinion, and we could see that's when the

runaway inflation and all that started to happen. And all of this is just terrible data for Donald Trump and for his White House because they want to try and say face, they want to try and actually do something after they basically nuked this entire you know, the entire economic outlook of the country. But they don't know where to fall. They just don't know what they're doing, right.

Speaker 2

Yeah, Well, and Trump loves the teriffs because he I mean, he shouldn't be able to do them unilaterally, but.

Speaker 3

He just is.

Speaker 2

Yeah, change, and so it does give him the power of a monarch. I mean, there is a reason why tariffs were supposed to be the purview of Congress, so that you wouldn't have the dynamic of this like CEO, king dictator figure going and doling out, Oh you get an exemption, you get an exemption, like and all these companies and all the countries coming to call this man

has development properties all around the world. You don't think that these countries are going to be coming to him greasing the skids, giving him tax and so whatever it.

Speaker 3

Is going to help his business.

Speaker 2

Making sure that you know, Tesla's on a solid ground whatever it is that Trump wants on, and so he loves that power.

Speaker 3

But tariffs have actually.

Speaker 2

Always been one of the shakier parts of his plan of the things that he ran on. It was always during his campaign when we were looking at the numbers, it was always sort of like fifty to fifty. People were not in love with the idea of tariffs. And it makes sense because at this point you had inflation as the number one economic concern and people felt like terrors are probably going to make things even more expensive.

Speaker 3

And they're right about that.

Speaker 2

You know, in some of that CBS News you go polling, they ask people who do you think is going to benefit from Trump's trade and tariff policies? Number one answer seventy four percent, the wealthy. Number two answers seventy one percent. Large corporations, The next one down fifty percent. So big is US auto industry, which we'll talk more about in the next.

Speaker 3

Block, and then it's all the way down.

Speaker 2

The lowest ones are working class, middle class and small businesses. So people don't feel like this is a plan that is going to help them, even though it is being sold in that way. And at a time when inflation continues to be a massive concern for Americans and for American consumers. Obviously, they're going to be deeply concerned about what is going on here.

Speaker 3

And in some ways, even.

Speaker 2

Like obviously he's pulled back some, although I think I honestly think it's been a little bit oversold how much he's pulled back. In my whole monologue is about tariffs, and I dig into a small business owner who imports her product from China. She actually wanted to import it from the United Issue, or wanted to produce it in

the United States. It just was literally impossible, and the one hundred and forty five percent China terrors they will destroy her business, Like there is no way, no way that she can survive, and she is one of many. So But even if Trump rolls back on even more of the tariffs and makes all these deals and declares victory art of the deal, whatever, I do think in a lot of ways, the damage has already been done.

And I do think it is somewhat analogous too. Even though I still support Biden having gotten out of Afghanistan, there's just no denying that there was a massive hit to his approvot he never recovered from. And I do think it's analogous like the honeymoon is over for Trump, the vibe shift has vibe shifted again, and the economic damage that is being done right now in this moment, with this level of uncertainty and people feeling like business

is feeling like I can't do. I just got to like hold on to cash and freeze in place and hope I can survive this totally unnecessary tumult that is not going to be undone no matter what Trump announces today, tomorrow, the next day, et cetera.

Speaker 1

What serious person, CEO, even if the administration came out tomorrow and was like, this is our plan for the next four years, what serious person would actually invest based upon that confidence? Serious I said that, Yes, I don't know. If you caught this, I was, I would short the stock of anybody.

Speaker 2

Yeah, you were like, I would a fire, I would vote.

Speaker 1

To fire that CEO. I'd be like, no, we're not doing this. You clearly have no judgment, dude. You need to keep hoard the cash and do nothing, absolutely nothing. Don't take too big of a risk. And that's because there's no confidence, you know. And what drives me nuts about this too, is that it's clear that people are not even still paying attention to the tax legislation, which still has to come out later on this year, and there is no really positive sign for Donald Trump in

the next I would say nine months. We have the tariffs that is going to dominate the news elon and all that does is basically, I mean, it's still around, but it's not really like the number one concern. So you've got this immigration stuff, a front page story on literally every across the paper at every country. Probably the number one thing that most people hear about if they are politically engaged, Tariffs is going to be number one, and or number two that they're generally who are who

they're generally in gaging with. Well, what else is on the horizon? The only next major thing that we can predict on the horizon is the tax legislation. We know from baseline the tax legtion is gonna be crazy unpopular. There's no there's not even an argument about it's just period, and most Republicans will admit that with a straight face. There's really nothing you can do. And also Trump said I want to cut a trillion dollars, So it's kind of like with Biden where we can look ahead to

whatever is going to come next. We know no major piece of legislation in the pass the Senate or the House of Representatives before this tax bill. We know that it has to happen in the next several months. So the next flagship piece of legislation after this whole economy and tariff situation is going to be a major tax cut for corporations and a trillion dollar According to them,

it's not my words. They said, I want to cut one trillion dollars and I want to increase the Pentagon budget by one hundred and fifty billion dollars, which just so happens to be the exact amount of money that Elon now claves that dough has to be saved. So what are we doing here? You know, what's the net out effect of this? You would be forgiven to be pretty pessimistic about that whole situation, wouldn't you.

Speaker 2

Any lune flying about those savings.

Speaker 1

Even at bakes value completely. But I'm saying from an approval rating standpoint, the TCJA, the tax cuts and job zack was the lowest single day of Donaldsham's presidency in the first term. The lowest day. Again, everybody always forgets that people do pay attention sometimes. I think that will happen again this time around, and it will be a Biden like compounding effect of either bailing out the rich, feeling chaotic, not really having a steady hand at the wheel.

So you can see on approval on approval grounds, on the economy, and more. The more you lose that, I mean, you and I have said this. Nobody knows what will happen at the midterms, okay, And of course nobody knows what happen in global affairs. Trump could literally I don't know, there could be a crazy pieced in Ukraine. There could be this new ceasfire and goudz. There's so many different

things that could affect it. But in terms of what we can predict, that's what we see on the horizon as something that is very obvious for his approval rating, that is not going to go over well.

Speaker 2

Yeah, And the last thing I want to note here b three up on the screen Trump's approval rating with young people. People were very excited about Trump performing better among young people. It's one pole, small sample, who knows, okay, But look at the way among eighteen to twenty nine year olds. His approval rating has fallen off a frickin cliff around the time he got elected. You can see

him in solidly positive territory. You know, there's been a decline among other age groups except those forty five to sixty four year olds. Actually they're kind of those gen xers. They're kind of hanging in there, aren't they. But among eighteen to twenty nine year olds it has plummeted. Now at its lowest levels, looks like minus thirty some, oh,

minus twenty nine here among eighteen to twenty nine year olds. So, you know, all of these hopeful takes about how you know the young people are going to be they're going to be shifting right and they're super conservative and they love Donald Trump, that all seems to be evaporating very quickly in real time.

Speaker 1

Yeah. I mean, like I said, you never know these polls and all that ahead to the election. But I do think instead of looking at the poll, let me think about the fundamentals. What are young folks tuned into. What was the whole vibe shift about on TikTok and others. It was about irreverence, specifically for young men. It was more of a cultural attitude right now is not a cultural moment. Right now is one of the rare times in American history where it's actually a policy moment. It's

about tariffs, it's about immigration. Those are real things, and it's not really about pronouns and bios or you know, any of that other stuff right now. I think Richard Hanania said he's like, it feels indecent to be talking about wokeness right now, and I was like, you know, that's actually very belief. That is an absolutely correct observation.

Speaker 3

Well, sorry, god, no, no, that's fine.

Speaker 1

I was just gonna say, it's not they're not in power anymore. They're gone. We have a different arm. Yeah. Also, whoever runs for president next, I have relative confidence they're not going to be having their pronouns in bio. Right, So we won, all right, congratulations. Yeah. I don't think trans athletes are gonna end up in the d one at this point anymore. They probably have learned their lesson. If they haven't, and they're idiots, but that's their you

know whatever. My point is, just like those fights are over, so in a certain sense that culture has been won. Now we're talking about money, future immigration, like actual stuff and on that. First of all, TikTok and all of that is not very well equipped in my opinion, to handle a lot of those issues. And so you know, even TikTok is elevating some of the most anti TERRFF voices, which is very bad for Trump ironically because he's trying

to save it. But the vibe right now is not one where Republicans are best poised to win because outside of genuine like maga sycophants, can you find a serious person who is defending the tariffs? No, we got. The closest we got was Oron and Orange. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Speaker 2

He just he doesn't want to, you know, completely throw terrorists under the bus, right.

Speaker 3

But that's all he got very clear. This is not the way orn Cass would have done.

Speaker 1

No, yeah exactly. So you have no serious when you have we have nothing like that. Somebody can really articulate your case all that well, And then this whole trends and pronoun stuff, it's just so like it almost feels like a bygone era. You're fighting on very different grounds.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Well, and if you think about I mean, millennials are the most left wing generation like maybe in history, and you think about what were their formative experiences. It was

the Iraq War, and it was the Great Recession. You know, it was people coming out of college to an economic catastrophe and the way that set that set the entire generation back significantly in terms of being able to achieve the milestones that their parents had been able to achieve, you know, family and being able to get married and

being able to buy a house. Those sorts of things were all pushed into the future because of the economic calamity that met millennials when they were you know, just coming into the workforce and graduating from college, et cetera. And so if you have a similar dynamic with gen Z, I don't think they're going to be in love with the party that is in power while all of that is happening.

Speaker 3

Let's go and shift to terroristor.

Speaker 2

We have some new new news this morning about China's retaliation. They have halted all gone and put this up on the screen. They have halted all shipments of Boeing products. They're ordering Boeing jet delivery to be halted as the trade war expands. Boeing I saw it was down on this news and before we jumped to the auto piece saga, why don't you just go ahead and break down what you see as significant about this.

Speaker 1

Well advanced aerospace manufacturing and air that was one of the gold standards where the United States still had somewhat of a leg up. The Chinese over the last decade have pumped billions and billions of dollars into being able to develop their own competitor to Airbus and to Boeing. They don't want their airline or aerospace industry to be reliant on US supply chains and design specifically, So the

reduction in Boeing is two things. First of all, as of twenty twenty five, I quote, China accounts for twenty to twenty five percent of Boeing's global aircraft deliveries, So the flagship United States aerospace company just took a twenty five percent haircut on its overall delivery of corporate jets. So that's number one. Number two is that the Airbus stock is soaring right now, which further means that Airbus the major European competitor and frankly much better safety record.

Can we all admit that in the last decade or so is one that's going to be the major beneficiary. Meanwhile, the Chinese are also going to be pumping significant, even more amounts of the technology development into their industry at home. So this is an alignment against the United States. This is part of why I'm so upset about the quote implementation of all of these tariffs. In an ideal tariff regime,

we want Boeing to thrive. Boeing should be the flagship of America's industry in the way that it was in the nineteen forties and all the way through the nineteen seventies, before deregulation and combination and stock buybacks and all of that other it was a goal standard. It was like something that everyone could aspire to from a jobs perspective and producing and this is the best thing, the most

important in the best products. Already we've moved away from that, but despite legacy, of course, they're still able to develop and to pump out quite a few to be cut off in the interim. There is no plan by the government today to save Boeing. And look, I get it. You know, people are animist towards Boeing. We've talked about the whistleblowers, et cetera. We can still reform. It's still very important. We need an aerospace company. Can we all

admit that we need to fly people. You know, we can't be reliant on the Europeans and on the Brazilians to be shipping US jets that are flying us all over our country. Not possible in terms of any sort of defense industrial base. So this is the exact scenario where Boeing flagship American advanced manufacturing, the exact type of industry is taking a haircut as a result of the tariff, with no plan to actually help Boeing do anything in the future.

Speaker 3

And it's awesome.

Speaker 1

That's the problem that we have.

Speaker 2

And China gets kind of kills you birds with one stone here because not only do they hobble a critical industry for us, but they also bolster the Europeans at a time when you know, again, if you were going to do this intelligently and you were going to try to go directly at China, you would want to have the world on your side. You would rather than being out there insulting people and throwing tarras all around at

everybody across the board, et cetera. And so this is an opportunity also for China to give the Europeans something that is beneficial for them as well. At the same time, the tariff roller coaster is far from over. President Trump now, in addition to the exemptions of various high tech things that benefit like Apple and Nvidia, now he's also considering some possible exemptions with regard to the auto terrists.

Speaker 3

Let's go ahead and listen to that.

Speaker 5

So President Trump says that car makers might need a little bit more time. When he was asked about any potential exemptions coming in the future, he added that he's looking at something to help the car companies where they're switching parts that were made in Canada and Mexico to the US. Of course, a big push of President Trump's

terrrist plan is to reshore production. But that's been particularly difficult four car makers were, particularly when we're looking at the USMCA Complyiant Goods North America trade between Canada and Mexico, considering that car parts passed between the border so many times. So one, we have the current Canada and Mexico tariffs that are in place, but also those auto specific sector tariffs that went into place last month under Section two thirty two, where we saw a twenty five percent auto

tariff across the board. So it does appear that President Trump is opening up a little leeway here potentially for negotiations to get underway. We know that the Big three auto makers in particular, have been lobbying this White House for months. You'll a call during President Trump State of the Union address in February. He had said that they were in his office and they called him. That's when he announced that initial reprieve, but then ended up putting those tariffs on.

Speaker 2

And so again this shows you the way this works. The Big three automakers, they're able to get him on the phone. They're able to say, hey, this is going to be a freaking disaster for us because these parts across the border multiple times. The cost of a vehicle is going to skyrocket like tens of thousands of dollars

if these actually go into place. And so he hears them out and is potentially walking back temporarily some of the Oh but they're not exemption Soccer, don't worry some of the auto tariffs.

Speaker 1

Yeah, this is again you know what what's happening. The tariffs are on, they're off, they're twenty percent, they're twenty five percent. Now they're exempted, and maybe they're not exempted. There's the USMCA. They're spent in all time. Nobody has any idea and what most people are doing, and I'm telling you this is obvious. They're just stopping all shipping anything coming to America. They're like, hold it over there

and we'll figure it out. Go ahead and put C three please up on the screen so you guys can see this. This is the week over week drop in ocean bookings fifty percent. Overall US imports down sixty four percent, Overall US exports down thirty percent, US imports from China down sixty four percent, US exports from to China down thirty six percent. That's just in a week. Okay, it could fall to one hundred inventory. Does anybody remember this little term called just in time delivery that we all

learned about during COVID? Did anything change? Does anyone want to tell me did anything change in the last five years? No, it didn't. It actually got worse. And so what does that mean? It means that we don't have like, we don't have stockpiles. We talked yesterday a lot about rare earth minerals, still a very important conversation. What did we learn from the rare earth mineral discussion is that American companies, basically because they run on a cash on a stock basis,

refuse to stock up. We don't have a supply chain, we have no refining ability, we have no ability basically to make up for this in the overnight way that China has cut us off from it. It will obviously have cascading effects throughout our supply chain. A lot of this stuff matters, especially for cars, for batteries. It's a full court press the Chinese. Again, I have to respect them and their competence. They know exactly where to hit us hard. The number one industry we care the most

about is aerospace advanced manufacturing. That's like gold standard for the defense industrial base. So what do you do? Screw you Boeing? Before that, semiconductors, make sure you cut off all the minerals that you need. There. Hope the South Koreans and the Japanese can bail us out. From who people I've spoken to, they have stock poles of their own, but they don't necessarily want to sell it to us. Now,

what do you do? Semiconductors and then cars? That was the final one for magnets and other things that are necessary. That is a direct attack by the way, at Tesla stock because they need those to be able to build all of the cars that they do here in America.

All three of the things are targeting the growth industries, the manufacturing industries, and the exact type of things that we can point to and say, this is how tariffs could be working and could be saving, and that's what they're attacking, and we have no policy right now to actually help any of it on the back end.

Speaker 3

That's exactly right. So Interestingly, Sean Faint, who's.

Speaker 2

The head of the United Auto Workers, he has been defending the tariffs. You know, he'll say, I'm not just with regard I think he tries to make it like just with regards to the auto industry. He recently went on MSNBC. It was one of these panel shows where you've got like AlSi Menandez Simone Sanders and Michael Steele I think, and they're all trying to spar with him

over his position with regard to these tariffs. Let's go ahead and take a listen, guys, this is C two to a little bit of how that went down.

Speaker 6

You know, let's talk about the realities of what you know. And this is the thing, you know, I've been reading a lot of this lately. Going back in nineteen ninety two, I voted.

Speaker 1

For Ross Pero.

Speaker 6

You know why I voted for Ross PuO for one reason because he was the only candidate that talked about how devastating NAFTA would be to American jobs and to our manufacturing base. And he talked about that giant sucking sound. You know, I've read this book here in the last week. You know, save your job, save our country. Why NAFTA must be stopped.

Speaker 4

Now.

Speaker 6

You know what's interesting since then, Ross pro has become a prophet. Since NAFTA was inception in nineteen ninety three, we've lost ninety thousand manufacturing facilities in this country, millions of jobs. And these weren't, you know, low end jobs. These were jobs that paid decent wages, had good benefits.

Speaker 3

Retirement secualized. I agree with.

Speaker 1

You, communities, but here's my thing.

Speaker 3

But here's NAFTA was after was thirty years.

Speaker 8

Ago the situation that we are dealing with now, and I agree with you. I'm on the side of the folks that said they this did the American workers wrong. Absolutely, But right now we are dealing with the situation where it's not these are blanket tariffs. We are dealing with situation where manufacturing is not going to come back in two weeks. So what how I'm just I'm really struggling to figure out to understand how UAW has aligned itself with Trump on this.

Speaker 6

So, first off, NAFTA is still causing us to lose jobs in this country. Our broken trade system is still causing us to lose jobs in this country, and no one from either party has been willing to even address the issue for thirty plus years.

Speaker 1

That's the first thing.

Speaker 6

And we support tariffs as a tool, a tool in the toolbox, not the end all be all. We got to fix the broken trade system, but tariffs are a motivator to make these companies do the right thing. When we're talking auto, I can't speak for you know, penguins and all this other crazy stuff going on, but I'll speak to what I know, and you know, when we talk about parts, there's an exclusion for parts sector right now.

The reason there's this exclusion is because we've been talking with the administration about how to make these tariffs work, and they've been working with us on that.

Speaker 2

It's frustrating to me watching this exchange. I would love if Sean Fayn would come on the show. I'd love to have a conversation with that. I'm sympathetic. There's nothing that he says, though, that is incorrect about NATA and about its impacts specifically on the auto industry, about the fact that these terrible trade deals continue to harm American workers. All of that is completely accurate. The question is, then,

what are you going to do about it? And if you're just doing this chaotic terrorist are on, they're off, They're across the board, They're not across the board.

Speaker 3

One hundred and forty five percent for.

Speaker 2

China, yes auto, no auto, et cetera. It's only going to make the situation for American workers worse across the board, and the auto industry is one where you know, if Trump was just targeting, like, Okay, we're going to restore the auto industry, here's how we're going to do it, and it was intelligent and coupled with industrial policy as we've talked about it. I supported Trump's tariffs on the

first term. I supported Biden's tariffs in his term. I would support something like that that is not what we're talking about. So I don't think you can afford in this time to ignore the rest of what is going on with these tariffs, because they are going to hurt that they are going to be a regressive tax on working class people. They're going to hurt workers much more

than they help workers. And the other thing is, you know, if you listen to Trump talk and I get into some of this day in my monologue, like he doesn't want to restore the nineteen fifties height of postwar manufacturing.

And at that time you had about fifty percent unionization in terms of factory workers, so you had a lot of labor power, you had an expanding social safety net, you had a post war global economy where the US was kind of the only game in town because so many other countries had been completely devastated.

Speaker 3

But that's not what he's looking to restore.

Speaker 2

And you can tell that by the fact that he's a union buster, and by that doge is gutting the government so that it can't regulate big business. He wants to go back, and he talks about this to the guilded age. He wants to go back to the time before there were labor regulations, before there were child labor regulations. When you know there it was before the progressive era, when you really have a large union movement and labor power, and before there was an income tax.

Speaker 3

That's what he wants to go back to.

Speaker 2

And you know, these sort of like you know, sweatshop jobs, because there's nothing inherent about factory jobs that make them good jobs. It was the particular moment in time, and also the fact that we had this very large union movement.

Speaker 3

You have to have all of.

Speaker 2

Those pieces if you're actually going to restore something good for American workers. Trump has no interest in any of that. He wants to go in the complete opposite direction. So while listen, I get where Sean Fin's coming from, Like I you know, I've seen him be very critical of Trump in other areas. I understand his mindset, but this from Trump is going to completely go in the opposite

direction of what you would want from American workers. And we already know because we've seen Stalantis already do layoffs as a consequence of this.

Speaker 1

The difficulty for him is he has to support tariffs conceptually, and look, I get it, like you said, in the position that he's in a MSNBC people who are totally against tariffs, and he's like, no, that's not what I'm saying. What I'm calling for is X, Y and Z tariff combined with this policy. The difficulty that you run into is that with the chaos of the Trump administration now at this point, you never know whether a tariff is on or not. You literally And the funny thing is

even the automakers don't know. They have to call their lawyers and be like, what's the guidance from the White House today? And then the next day Trump comes out like, actually there's no exceptions, and you're like, oh, okay, I mean, how can we do business?

Speaker 3

How is it?

Speaker 1

Or employee people?

Speaker 2

How is the domestic auto market going to be if we're in a recession? Right, so how's that going to be for you know, workers and layoffs?

Speaker 3

And you know what.

Speaker 2

Level of investment in the US do you think that you typically get during a recession, which is what he is actively courting and what we may already be tipping into based on some of the estimates.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean O nine killed GM and still they destroyed the Oh it really never came back. Ford. Ford, you got to hand it to him. They they were able to climb out, and they never took any government money. I remember reading a really good book about how they were able to handle it. But they're the exception and they're not the role. The US auto industry really never recovered from that. And then there was that whole cash for clunkers thing. They had destroyed these car market. It was a disaster.

Speaker 3

Yeah, all bad.

Speaker 2

The bail out was very unpopular at the time, but then it ended up being like, was one of those things that the Obama administration kind of took a risk on because when it was being right, when it was being proposed, it was actually really profoundly unpopular, but they did it anyway to save those jobs. And it ended up being obviously the right call.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I don't know, I still think there should have been. I don't know, just if you look at the net effect GM and Stilantis, like Ford has minutes of actual cheap, decent success, GM is Stilantis. Yes, they paid the money back and all that, but like in terms of saving the jobs in the industrial base and all, that didn't really happen. I mean, they did close a lot of plants, they closed them in the interim. But you know, in a five year overall period, a lot of those jobs

did get eventually outsourced. A lot of them went to Mexico and or to China. Glow mobilization just ate away at it and at the and the worst part is they don't create the good products like they just their products are bad even today. And you can see, if you know, with respect to all these other car manufacturers around the world, like they laugh at them.

Speaker 3

So it's not about been such a calamity for Michigan.

Speaker 1

I'm not disagreed. I think it was right to save the job, but there should have been a much more conservative effort to make sure that they're globally competitive, and it just didn't happen. And now we are where we are today, some fifteen years later, where you have by d Shaomi, you all these other people GM, and still they can't they can't make an electric car that's decent. To save their life. They've make it for like ninety thousand dollars a piece of shit. You know, nobody would

ben to buy it. And so yeah, we're in a tough spot here in our in our car industry. It's not good

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