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Indeed we do.
It looks like the cultural revolution is off that intellectuals are going to get at least a reprieve from being sent to the iPhone factory to screw in all of the little little screw for ninety days temporarily. Anyway, of course, we're going to cover a lot about the tariffs. Show is not one hundred percent tariffs, but it's about ninety percent tariffs. I would say we've got Joe Wisenthal coming in to break down what Trump is doing, what it means,
market reaction, all of that good stuff. We've got some pretty serious and I think pretty credible allegations of insider trading. So we will break down for you the timeline and the evidence and you can evaluate for yourself. We got a bunch of you know, Republicans and administration officials.
What they were saying.
Before the pause or the roll back, what they're saying now.
It's pretty extraordinary.
The President himself being much more honest about the reason that he decided to change course. Basically got freaked out by the bond market, so he joined the Panicans. I guess I'm really excited for this. We have Ryan Peterson, he's the CEO of Flexport, coming on to talk about
also this terraf regime, what is going to mean. But also more importantly, there's another change that's coming down the pike that we briefly mentioned the other day that could be incredibly significant and quite devastating to supply chains and to global shipping. So really want to hear from him
on that. And then we've got a couple of updates with regard to both immigration policy, social media accounts are now going to be filtered for any sort of quote unquote anti semitism before people are given student visas or green card status, things like that. And also we have a quite significant couple of court updates with regard to the Alien Enemies Acts that wanted to follow up on that since we had that segment with Peaceco breaking down the Supreme Court.
Ruling the other day.
So to all of you guys who have been helping us out this week amidst a lot of economic turmoil, we have really really appreciated. We've seen a big spike this week just because of interest in tariffs on what's going on. So if you can become a premium member, of course, we really appreciate it. If you can't do that, totally get it. If you can like, if you can subscribe, if you can share the videos, that helps us tremendously.
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And for the podcast listeners, we don't forget about you either. As we said, the best thing you can do leave a five star review or take the episode literally, just share it with a friend. It's tremendously impactful. So let's you go ahead and start with the tariffs, as you said the White House. I'm sure some of you have heard at the point a pause is on. Let's go
and put it up there on the screen. Quote based on the lack of respect China has shown to the world market, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China by the United States of America to one hundred and twenty five percent effective immediately. That's a retaliation for their eighty four percent tariff that was put into place. There's still some big questions as to that one hundred
and twenty five percent tariff. Does it in addition to the twenty percent tariff that we're there meaning would be what is that one hundred and fifty five percent tariff?
Seems to be possible, he says, But this is the most important point.
I have authorized a ninety day pause and substantially lowered reciprocal tariff during this period of ten percent effective immediately, he says, as a result of more than seventy five countries that have called representatives of the United States to express interest in negotiations. So immediately afterwards, there were a lot of questions here did Trump cave? Did he Was this his strategy all along? Was he a madman. Was he bluffing? Did he have to convince people he was crazy?
Was it the art the deal?
Well?
Trump actually answered that for himself.
He came out immediately in front steps of the White House and he's like, yeah, I did it because people were getting afraid.
Let's take a lesson.
Why you decided to put a ninety day pause.
Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid, unlike these champions. Because we have a big job to do. No other president would have done what I did. No other president I know, the presidents, they wouldn't have done it.
And it had to be done. What was happening to us on trade, not only with you know, if you look at it, not only with China, but China is by far the biggest abuser in history and others also. But somebody had to do it. They had to stop because it was not sustainable. Last year, China made one trillion dollars off trade with the United States.
It's not right. And now I've reversed it. It's for a.
Short period of time, but we made two billion dollars. We're making now two billion dollars a day, and somebody had to do it. Roger actually said that Josh Schwab was here a little while ago, one of the great financial people, and he said he's been waiting for forty years for somebody to do what I did over the last month. Nothing's over yet, but we have a tremendous amount of spirit from other countries, including China.
China wants to make a deal. They just don't know how quite to go about it.
You know.
It's one of those things that are not quite proud people.
People are getting a little bit eppy. That's what the president says. Yet, if you listen to his advisors, this was the plan all along. Here's the Commerce Secretary, Howard luck Nick. Nobody backed off. Absolutely, this was all part of the plan.
Let's take a listen.
So Miss Secretary tonight, you can definitively say this was not a walk back. This was not something that the bond markets were cratering and you were worried about it. You know that this is part of your plan. There's a lot of folks saying and there were just mixed messages that really left the markets jitterary.
Donald Trump is the best negotiator that there is. He understands how to do these things, and he gave these were crystal clear instructions. No negotiating till two days ago. He would be willing to negotiate, but broadly, and then yesterday was I'll do bespoke, and bespoke that's what launched it. I mean, every country wanted to come and talk to us and what are we supposed to do? So Scott and I went in and talked to him about what do we do and how do we do it? And
I think this is where we are. So the President made his decision. He truthed it out with Scott and I in the room, just the three of us together, and this is where we are. We just Scott vested, myself and Ambassador Jameson Greer, who's our USTR, and just have so much work to do with so many different countries. But we've got to make fair deals for America. And Donald Trump said, for the big countries, the lead negotiator of those of those transactions is going to be Donald Trump.
He wants to do it, he wants to drive it. And what could be more fun for Scott and I it.
Was not a background what could be more fun Sager.
Marcus Gonning itpie, And so Trump says, we're doing it because people got afraid.
Howard Ludning all part of the plan. You idiots never read art of the deal.
Yeah, there's lot a single scrap of evidence to support that. And in reality, all of the talk from behind the scenes was not only that he was not going to negotiate, he didn't care about the markets. And then he comes out and he just says it. He actually undermines all of his big defenders. Yeah, that are in the media. So before we get to the bond market thing, you have anything you want to say, Well.
Yeah, a couple of just pieces of reporting to add to the context. There are apparently two big things. So first of all, I don't know if you guys saw this floating around, this interview that Jamie Diamond did with Marie Barbiromo reporting, is that Trump watched that where he said I think that we are going to be in a recession because of these moves. Many other people had already said this, but and it was like increasingly glaringly obvious. And by the way, odds are still pretty decent that
we're going to end up in a recession. But we'll put that aside and talk to Joe Wisenthal a little bit more about that. But apparently that, for whatever reason, had an impact on him. And then the real thing was the bond markets and the Typically when you have the stock market fall, you have a lot of people fleeing and buying up treasury bonds because it's a flight to safety, that's what they call it. The very opposite
thing was happening here. That freaked everybody out because it's an indication that, first of all, things are so bad, everyone's just having to liquidate everything to make margin calls or keep their head above water. It's what an indication of that. It's also an indication guess what, guys, maybe the US isn't going to be the safe harbor anymore.
So when you have those factors, and then also think about Trump as a real estate guy who is known to use astronomical levels of debt, Well, guess what, but your bank loans, the interest rate that you get on that is going to be related to the treasury rate. So he had a very long time, deep understanding of how bad this would be for you know, real estate developers or other businesses that want to borrow money from
the bank. Not to mention one of the eight d chess theories of what was going on here is they're crashing the economy in order to get the interest rates down. The exact opposite thing is happening.
So if you're going to.
Have to roll this debt that the US has, there's this big debt wall coming up, you're going to be paying an even higher price because of these moves that you're making. So in the end, he did join the Panicans and was like, holy shit, this could be worse. And one of the things that was reported, I can't remember which outlet reported this, but he was like, you know, I'm okay with a recession, but I was getting worried that we might be in an actual depression, and so
he walks back from the edge. Now, to be clear, there's still a very hefty terror.
Regime in place.
I mean, China's our number one trading partner, know, so many of our consumer goods come from China. There is an insanely high tariff one hundred and twenty five or whatever the hell it is, forty percent one hundred and forty percent on goods coming in from China. That alone is insanely impactful. Then you still have ten percent tariffs
across the board. You know, if this is what he had originally announced going out to the Rose Garden in that speech, there would have been a massive market reaction because it's actually worse than what was expected going into that speech. But there's a relief because number one, just you know, it's not as bad as it was. And number two, because it showed that Trump could be moved and wasn't just a total madman going for the next great depress.
Yes, that's right.
That's an important point, and it actually gets to kind of a market veto. Let's get into this for the bond market before we bring in.
Joe Wisenthal.
Charles Gasprino over at Fox News really broke down the scare in the bond market and why it ultimately forced the White House is hand.
Let's take a listen.
I want to tell you right now that Donald Trump out smarted the world. Trust me, I'm an American. I support my president, but that's not really what happened here from what I understand, and I know I'll get pushed back, but here's what it is. First, off, we should point out that one of the good things about this is that Scott besson is finally in the White House. He's
finally leading this. I mean, up until a couple of days ago, it was Lutnik, it was Peter Navarro, the Commerce Secretary, the Trade Advisor, very much hawks now with Scott Bessont, who believes in cutting deals as opposed to not just putting these tariffs out there. And let's be amercantilistic economy.
That's number one.
But number two, let's recall what happened overnight and from what I understand, and I'm getting this from people that are talking to the White House, what happened in the bond market overnight, the spike in yields on the thirty year and the ten year bond, which showed that people were dumping our bonds. And who are those people dumping our bonds? Japan, the biggest holder of bonds, was selling bonds. That's what I'm getting from some very big money managers.
China maybe to some extent, but it was largely Japan and others. If you have a mass sale of bonds, that means people are losing confidence in the US economy. On the ability to do deals with us, and from what I understand, this is what forced the hand of this ninety day reprieve. Now is it a good thing?
You know, are people coming to the table. Yeah, But if you know, if you read between the lines or not, even what Scott Besson said, we have no deals, right, there's nobody that is really there saying this is what we're going to do. And they paused it anyway. So my thing that said, well, I'll give you this, there is some art of the deal here. And by the way, brilliant move by putting China in the corner. But that's a whole separate thing because remember that's a very difficult negotiation.
Everybody else is a lot easier. They really want to they do want to deal with us, whether they want to be, you know, forced into really bad trade deals on their end as a whole other negotiating story. But make no mistake about it, you cannot divorce this decision right here from what happened last night, which was you know, I people focus on the stock market all the time.
It's the bond market and the sort of lending markets that's the plumbing of the economy, and those markets were imploding last night, and that's why we have a ninety day freeze. Let's see if those markets improve. If someone told me we had a decent treasury auction today, but if you can't sell your treasures, guys, and people are unloading your treasures, like Japan, which is I believe the largest foreign holder after China.
So as you guys can see there from Charles Gasprino's reporting, the bond market is really what forced Donald Trump's hand. Spooks to the United States Treasure sector who coming into this had said one of the stated goals was to make sure that the yield on these bonds was going to go lower. That would have, of course, increase in the yield would have made mortgages more expensive, it would have
made the debt servicing more expense. And it's one of those where the massive size of that and the overall financial impact was a major recessionary indicator. So very very clear what went on here, h Donald Trump. This is not ourt of the deal. This was straight up he got panicked because of the bod market. And now we'll see, well he admits it himself, yeah he so, I mean, I'm not saying it.
And it was funny because Gasper that was on Fox Fox News or Fox Business was Fox News? Yeah, Fox News, and you know it's in the midst of all this like North Korea style propaganda about oh art of the deal and this was the planel along whenever He's like, well, not really based on reporting and now based on the president z own words. So let's go and get to Joe Wisenthal Bloomberg to break all of us down and where we are and what might happen next.
Very excited now to be joined by Joe Wisenthal of the Odd Lots podcast over at Bloomberg.
He's an all star.
Him and his co host Tracy are incredible and we highly recommend you all listen to them. Joe has been making their rounds everywhere explaining to the people about what the hell is going on, and we decided that we had to have him on here to tell us specifically about this whole bond market thing, which we're doing our best to break down. Joe, let's take a listen to what Donald Trump had to say about the bond market.
Get your reaction and also in explanations. So let's take a listenin the.
Phone markets that persuaded you to reverse.
I was watching the bond market. That bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at.
It now, it's beautiful.
The bond market right now is beautiful.
But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy. I think everything had well. The big move wasn't what I did today. The big move was what I did on Liberation Day. We had Liberation Day in America. Were liberated from all of the horrible deals that.
Were made, all of the horrible trade deals that were made.
And I was helped by people just like this senator, congressman and friends, right, and we had great help in the Senate. Of course, Republican senators have been amazing. They still a doll and likewise in the House.
So Joe Trump all but meeting there that the bond markets are really what forced his hand.
Can you explain specifically.
About why that was so impactful for his decision making.
Yeah, there's a lot of like I would say, sort of exoticization of the bond market, particularly in media, and people like to have these panises China's jumping bonds you response, or Japan dumping bonds and response. It's not that complicated really what was going on Tuesday night was extreme panic. And in a state of extreme panic, what do you
do you think about. I got to pay my mortgage at the end of the month, I got to pay my cell phone bill, I have to pay my Bloomberg subscription, and all of that stuff is denominated in dollars.
Do you sell anything that's not dollars.
You start selling stocks, you start selling gold, you start selling bonds, even which are you know, essentially the safest asset in the world, because you want are just those liquid dollars to pay your bills. It doesn't help that one of the stated goals of this administration outside and everything else, was to lower yields, and so this was the exact opposite going on. And I think if there's probably one market that really resonates with Trump more than
the stock market, it's the bottom market. Because when your real estate your whole, you know, you sort of like live and die on your cost, to borrow at your cost and capital, it became an untenable situation when you saw those dynamic Maybe you can tolerate a hits of the stock market, and which I'm actually kind of skeptical that the people have the public would have put up with very much longer, but it truly becomes untenable when people start having to dump what is perceived as like
the second safest asset in the world. Where the safest asset in the world, which is just over nine dollars.
Got it, guys, can you put a six up on the screen. I thought this was interesting chart showing that now the midst of tariffs is now actually more tilted towards consumer goods, which is just an overall reminder that everyone's sort of acting like, okay, well that's over, but there's still actually a very steep and almost unprecedented level of tariffs that are hitting countries around the world, and obviously the massive tariff on China in.
And of itself is a huge deal.
So can you help people understand what the reality is now and what sort of potential impact it can have on the real economy, and you know, your assessment of what the markets have done and where they might be added.
Yeah, look, I'm surprised that we had this huge stock market rally yesterday after he pulled back from the brink a little bit, because, as I mentioned again Tuesday night, panic, Look, the reality is if you just go from now versus sort of like pre Rose Garden speech, and you don't pay attention to anything that happened. In the meantime, you have stock futures that are significantly lower.
So we've made a hit to the valuation of corporate America. Rates are higher.
Than they were, and the US economy or you know, our imports are significantly more tariff than they were. Even if you accept this theory that well, you know what this is about this big strategy because we're going to isolate, We're going to like box out China, We're going to.
Make all these deals with all these countries that.
Have lined up to avoid any aggressive reciprocal tariff. Even there, we've actually started to drive a wedge between US and all of those countries that we want to make a deal within, including US, including our continental partners, which are more higher tariff. So the fact that is the matter that consumer prices will be hired. Now, how this speech
through to like CPI like actual inflation. I don't think it's like totally obvious because if business is slowing, then incomes are going to be Hiring is going to be slowing, investment's going to be slowing. Maybe you don't actually get insallation, but you certainly get less affordability of what people were able to buy several weeks ago.
I think that's the real key thing. The cost of.
Doing business in the United States is now materially higher than it was a week.
One of the things, Joe, that you were constantly talking about over the last week is there are there's a lot of cope coming from MAGA influencers in the White House, but the stock market is not the real economy.
It has no connection.
And I think you have such a good way of articulating why that's just empirically not correct. And I want people to also to understand you're not some Wall Street explainer somebody.
Yeah, you know, nobody more than you.
In many respects, but as somebody's been covering this now, yeah what twenty years, just explain that to people why that's incorrect.
I've always hated this term, that it's just a cliche that probably some columnists once came, Oh, the stock market is not the economy. The stock market matters in the economy in various ways, and I'll just sort of run through them. A lot of people own stocks, at least more than half of the US is some sort of explosure. So it's not just this niche rich thing to the extent that it is skewed. And it is true that the ownership of stocks is highly distributed to the ridge.
It's also true that consumption.
Is highly skewed, so you're gonna like hit parts of the economy that are important drivers of consumption and ongoing activity. But there is more than that, because also, like business investments is in part going to be determined by the cost and capital and the stock market. And when companies see their stocks going up and they're being rewarded for what they're doing, they do.
More of it.
Uh.
And then when they're not and the stock market goes down, they take that as a message, oh, we need.
To cut workers, we need to expand. So it has an impact on that.
It has an impact on VC and early stage higher because the dream of any startup is to either go public or sell to a public company ultimately. And if the if that IPO window is closed, or if those public companies have diminished valuations, that reduces your possible exit. That reduces the multiples and the valuations you're going to get. In the early stage or early stage activity, and then finally beyond that, I would just say that, like, no
one really talks or speaks up for the stockholder. And I don't mean that in a facetious way like it's going to think of the poor stockholder. I mean a lot of people you know, like by stocks on Robinhood.
And you know, it's so funny to me that.
There's all this anxiety, particularly from Democrats, like how are we going to like reach out to you know, young brothers who listen to podcasts and stuff like that, but they don't talk about them. They working families and the costs of you know, buy stuff, all.
Of which really matters. But a lot of you know, young men who listen to podcasts have Robbinood accounts.
And so there's there's sort of like ignorance of the fact that a lot of people are in some way or.
Another directly exposed to the stock market.
Which is why I say they even setting aside the bond market tell off that we saw over the last couple of days before the blank, I don't think it's like tenable to just let stocks fall apart like that and not acknowledge how much that directly is going to affect things, and how quickly it's going to affect things both from a consumption and hiring.
Stand what is your sense of what this is actually all about? You know, because you get all these different explanations.
Depends on the day.
Sometimes the same person will say multiple different things. It's reindustrializing, it's more round new, it's you know, it's a it's a.
Go siating tactic.
Actually, we want Republicans that one of their coked like free trade type republicans like, oh, we're actually going to try to get to a zero terraff resu. Yeah, that's the real goal. I mean, what are you able to divine? And by the way, another theory of what's going on here is just like insider trading that you know, Trump can make announcements and move the market and buy you know, and if you're on the inside you can profit off
of that, and if you're not, then you don't. What is your sense of what's actually going on here?
Yeah?
The insider trading theories of assign a level of coordination internal coordination in the White House that I do not. Then I think it's probably giving the White House too much credit. You read those that reporting in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times.
We're knowing even on the inside.
Knew that there was going to be this pivot until maybe ten minutes before, and so I, you know, I do not think that the entire plan was like that well crafted to like, okay, we're going to put the word out among the insiders. All that being said, I don't know, And I think this is part of what the issue for the market is.
You know, it's hard to know what the end goal is. We all, what do we know.
We know Trump has been a fan of tariffs for decades, so that's a reality one possible. There seems to be this cultural thing among a lot of influencers where they just like think that manufacturing is like per se good that'll be sort of rejuvenating for the nation. In some respective, more people were working in the manufactured goods sector.
What I find annoying about that take is this.
Sort of uh, you know, covering the eyes of the fact that we actually had a lot of factories built in twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three, et cetera.
A lot of this was already going on.
In fact, it might even get worse of their terraf regime if imported intermediate goods to build things actually get costlier, so it could actually reverse it. And then the other thing I'm wondering about afterwards is, you know, I used to think that part of the goal here was like it's important for the.
US to match China on key.
Manufactured or strategic goods, particularly related to high seed or particularly related to things that go into weaponry. Now I'm wondering if the goal is just to crush the Chinese economy, which again is about the US China tension, but is different. It's a little bit more overt and like the goal is not to madge China or supersede China. The goal is to actually do damage to a growing geopolitical ride.
Yeah, it's certainly possible.
One of the things that you and I have been talking a lot about recently, Joe, is about this idea of bringing manufacturing or jobs. But what you have consistently pointed out is that since the imposition of tariffs, it is the manufacturers themselves who are screaming about increasing costs. So in any regime where there would be tariffs, what sort of capital injection tax plan confidence with these people have to have to actually.
Wind up to the stated goal of the White House.
And I think of many Americans who brings some certain critical industry, manufacturing, et cetera back to here.
We don't see that right now.
Industrialization is insane insanely difficult. Most countries historically seem to fail at these efforts. Where they seem to work, there seems to be a sort of two things have to happen.
You have some protection for.
Domestic industry, and then you have to create some mechanism, sorry for those companies to compete, like help in the global marketplace, to prove that they're actually doing good things rather than just taking a government money or rather than just being protected and getting protectionism.
And so in theory, what you.
Would want to see is you'd want to see, Okay, we're going to give you some degree of protection, either in the form of tariffs, you're going to own the US market, or export subsidies. But to continue to get these things, you have to prove that you're doing the best highest tech production and competing at the global level.
One way that you could theoretically do it, which I don't know if there's any appetite for really, but I would say invite VID and showing me to set up car factories in you know, Georgia, Miss Sippy, et cetera. And then you get twofold, you get that technology transfer where they're like, okay, this is experienced people who know how to build up a plan. And then you make contenzloas on the Fords of the GMS compete in the world's biggest auto market or maybe the second biggest auto market.
Now again some of the best players in the world, force them to step up their game even further, and then you actually can combine industrial policy with capitalist competition. It's very hard to do. It's very hard to do politically. You know, shareholders still love it. But if you're actually serious.
About what we want to.
Have a dynamic manufacturing industry, and I don't think we want to have an un dynamic manufacturing industry because then it's we're really just talking about assembly line jobs, right, Like, if you're having an un dynamic manufacturing these are not particularly desirable jobs. And I think again like people should sort of, like, I don't know, stick up a little
bit for the laptop class. And remember, we are very lucky to have a lot of employment in this country that doesn't require back breaking labor that you can do in a cool and air conditioned, comfortable office.
These are not fandsakes.
I feel very fortunate the many Americans to get to work in an office instead of an assembly line.
But if you want to.
Bring back un dynamic on competitive manufacturing, you would bring back a lot of pretty miserable jobs.
Well, especially at a point in time when you know the labor movement has been decimated. So you are not talking about going back to the fifties. You are talking about going back to the nineteen hundreds when you had much less labor regulation and lower wages and no federal
child labor laws and things of that nature. I mean, I'm being a little bit hyperbolic here, but the reality is you're not going back to those sort of like solid union middle class jobs that can support a whole family and buy a house because also those things like housing have become wildly more expensive. Healthcare, education, those things have become wildly more expensive. Something else I wanted to get you to weigh in on, Joe is, guys, can
we put a five up on the screen? People are sharing this chart around Yesterday obviously was a big.
Rebound in the market. One of the biggest gains.
In the S and P History eighth best day in history. When you go look at the other large games that are on that list, and it's like, oh, nineteen thirty three, nineteen twenty nine, nineteen thirty one, two thousand and eight, and even you know, twenty twenty makes the list here
as well. So you know, I guess give people a sense are we kind of out of the woods here or One of the things that we've been asking the question about as well is even when you roll back the tariffs, yeah, we've got a ninety day pause, we're going through We're going through all this again in ninety days.
Like if you're a business owner.
Yeah, this desis owners like, you can't how can you make any decision? I would expect that most CEOs are just going to kind of freeze in place and see what the hell's going to shake down?
Why would you take an your risk at least for ninety days and look like, you know, this is the Trump White House. Why would you want the drama to end in ninety days? Why would you want to show to end in ninety days? Well, yeah, like why at least for the next three months, Why would you want to make any major capital outlayer seriously think about expanding
headcounts in an environment like that. But yes, it's just completely true that many of the biggest games have been during periods of extreme market volatility and historically have proceeded more ugliness. I notice even today some of the games are holding particularly well.
I know.
Look, I don't like to get too worked up by short term stuff. Again, I'm not surprised that we saw that big rally yesterday, but there are reasons to think, both on the financial side and the real economic side that like the story isn't over it.
Yeah, that's my last question for you, Joe, is as you just alluded to ninety days, what does that? I mean, that's an entire quarter of business activity. There's going to be very little investment. There will be no major capital allocation or decision. That seems to be the exact opposite of what you want for a roaring economy. So how is this all going to play out over the next three months in our capital markets and our job markets? Yeah,
economic consumer confidence? What are people supposed to do?
I mean I would actually I like, actually what I've.
Been trying to talk to people for the last twelve hours, So what is the counter argument, because the way you like this articulating that didn't just seem so obvious to me. So I'm like, what am I missing? Like where's the growth impulse going to come from? And I mean that like in a serious way, Like I'm like asking people, like what is it? Because it sounds very bad at a minimum.
And I think there's.
Something else too, which is that even if you take Secretary of Vesson's comments yesterday, very seriously, Okay, now, loogal China has been exposed as a bad actor, and we're going to make these deals and we're going to like isolate that.
We're going to make these deals with our friends. We're going to isolate them.
This administration has spent the last several weeks insulting various friends, threatening the sovereignty of Canada, threatening Denmark via the claims that we're going to acclore Greenland, deeply insulting things that have completely shaken some of the most you know, sort of stable relationships that we've had to even setting aside the tariff shop. This ninety day negotiation is coming in an environment in which perceptions of us internationally, which.
Normally I don't care a lot about let people dislike us if.
We want, But now we're at the point where we're negotiating deals with their democratically, in many cases, elected leaders who have to be accountable to people who now have a much more negative impression of the United States, which is not give me a lot of hope that in these next ninety days we're going to have these big, beautiful deal.
Yeah.
Well, not to mention, I think Sager said this the other show, so I'm stealing from him. But China's fighting a trade war against us. We're fighting a trade war apparently against the whole planet.
So ten percent terms are still in place.
That's exactly right.
That's exactly right, and God only knows what happens next week, the week after that, ninety days from now, et cetera. So Jill, thank you so much. Like I said, I know, super busy. Thank you for making the time. I'm really glad to have you on the show.
Thanks brother, see you, everybody goes thanks side to the Odd Lots podcast.
Share it, listen to it with a friend. It's a great show. See man.
Thank you.
All right, So let's talk a little bit about the time timeline of what unfolded yesterday. And these pretty significant questions about who might have had some inside knowledge here and been into a position to benefit from the massive market spike that came after Trump's announcement of this tariff rollback.
So let's put this up on the screen.
Early in the day, he posted this on true Social this is a great time to buy DJT now. Apparently, according to the reporting, at least at this point he hadn't necessarily decided what he was going to do.
But I mean, who knows, right, who knows?
So he posts this, okay, and then of course later on in the day he makes his announcement. Even before this, there were some questions about whether he was just like screwing with the market to benefit the people around him. And I'm not talking about fringe internet figures or whatever. Even on CNBC they were raising questions about whether or not this was part of what was going on.
Let's take a listen to that.
Given what the government's been doing and this administration has been doing, it would not shock me, and I hate to speculate, if we were to find out that a whole bunch of people who work in Washington as our elected leaders, one way or the other, ultimately sold stocks last week or potentially worse than that short.
Of the market.
So Andrew ross Orkin there, that's.
A big deal.
We should explain that because people don't release it. Like Andrew ross Storkin is the guy who wrote Too Big to Fail. Andrew ross Storkin is the voice of like the the what between Walls. He's like the wit Wall Street whisper he wrote Too Big to Fail.
He is.
I mean, I'm having trouble describing him to a lay person. I guess what the Morning Joe of Financial News, like everybody hangs on his word. He's got the best reporting. He does the New York Times deal Book. You can get an interview, he can get an interview with every billionaire on the I remember talking to a guy who worked for a billionaire and he goes, I don't understand this Andrew ross Storkin guy, He's like, he goes around all of us and he gets to these people's phones.
He's like, he doesn't even have a phone number. He changes his phone number every month. Well, that's the type of person we're talking about.
And if he says it, there are a lot of people on Wall Street who are saying because these are people who think in terms of market movements and who.
Stands to benefit.
So when you have one man who is and you know, with this very small, cloistered group of advisors who are making these extraordinary seat of the pants announcements that are sending the entire market into total meltdown or reviving it with a new truth, you have to ask the question who knew and who was in a position to place the trades at the right time. And we're going to show you in a minute there. I mean, there is some evidence based on market moves to back up some
of these theories. It wasn't just Andrew ross Orkin on CNBC either, though. After the Trump announcement, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is on CNBC and the host comes right up to the break of asking him flat out basically, was this is Trump just manipulating markets and trying to inside or trade here.
Let's take a listen to how that went down.
He also seems to be a great stock pundit, mister secretary. Earlier this morning, before the past he put out a message saying it's a great time to buy and here we are here, we are much higher.
I know is bet on Donald Trump? Every time I know better.
He also wrote dj T, which is a ticker for for his media company.
No, no, no, every every text, every text he sends to me, that's his name.
But that was a great time to buy the market, right, I.
Mean, on can Donald look?
Donald Donald Trump understands that it's America is the greatest country. All right, we are the greatest country, and we have the capacity for incredible greatness. But someone needs to take the shackles off, someone needs to let our carn our farmers sell corn to India.
So she tiptoes right up to but this doesn't quite come out and say she really should have though, actually go ahead and put C five up on the screen. This is from our friend Unusual Whales, who pointed out, okay, interesting before Trump posted that now would be a great time to buy. On true social you had traders opening up these certain type of calls.
These are exchange traded.
Funds that track either the Nasdaq or the S and P five hundred. So, just to put this in layman's terms, this means you see the spike, you had a huge jump in somebody who was betting that these markets were going to go up significantly, and on one of these in particular, they were betting it was like a just
a day was the timeframe. So they're basically saying, like, I think this market is going to jump up like crazy today, and these are highly leveraged, So this is a very very risky bet, especially to make in the midst of a massive market meltdown.
You can go to actual zero.
It's not like buying the S and P five hundred exactly exactly.
So right before the news he says, someone opened up five hundred and nine of these calls expiring today, and those calls are up twenty one hundred percent in a single hour. So if you happened to be in on what was gonna unfold during the day, this would be exactly the type of market move.
That you would mis Yes.
And for example, billionaire Charles Schwab was literally in the Oval office around the time that this announcement was made. Here's Trump actually bragging about it on camera while he's in the Oval office, pointing to Charles Schwab and saying, this guy made two point five billion today.
Take a listen, it's not just.
Financial wow.
Just say look, I mean, as Joe said, was there really a concerted effort.
I don't know.
Listen, if you're Charles you hear this going on and you don't get on the phone, you'll call your broker. You're an idiot, right, those like why wouldn't you do it? Or elected officials let's say Trump, read in John Thune or any of these other folks. We don't know if any of that is true, or Speaker Mike Johnson. We know from unusual wills and others. These people are trading
all the time. And if any of this sounds ridiculous, I mean, let's not point to the fact that during the market crash, remember Senator Richard Burr.
Was under federal investigation.
They seized his cell phone for insider trading allegations and even the appearance of corruption.
Don't forget.
Also, we will not even get the disclosures from members of Congress for months now before we even know if they were able to trade on this information, let alone White House officials. The way that they're reporting all works, it's going to take forever for this to be able to come out.
So there is zero transparency.
If they even bother to complain.
Yeah, right, even if they do, and actually a lot don't, there's a lot of these exclusions and things that you can get. Even the form is ridiculous. It's like, I'm worth between twelve and fifty million. You're like, okay, great, thank you for the disclosure there, Yes, right, exactly, Yeah, I don't know anything about this, but my point just broadly is that if you look at the data, it is obvious something happened.
Here.
We have, for example C seven.
Please you can see exactly similar spike in the graph that unusual Whales found. This is increase of over ten percent on call to options ten minutes before the announcement. Somebody was making a huge bet right before that.
This all this was ten minutes before Trump says guess what guys were switching switching it up ten percent tariffs ninety day pause, ten minutes before that person. They just must be a market genius.
Acre maybe market look theoretically possible, Like they were like, oh, I really think Trump is going to make a big move today, and so middle of the day right around and I'm like, yeah, I don't know, No, no, nobody's got really that. I mean, remember that whole October seventh insight that we had and we covered here on the show.
To this day.
Nobody really knows who shorted the market there immediately before what we like, shorted on October sixth and got miraculously lucky. There are all these apocryphal tales about nine to eleven as well. And look, we can just simply add this one to the list. The data is clear somebody did make it, So SEC and IRS will know exactly who this person is.
It would be nice. Yeah, at the very least, just do an investigation.
Sir, Trump's SEC will be all over it.
Well, this is the problem with the data is that this stuff, I mean dramatically undermines confidence in the overall system, as it should because everybody's like, uh, I'm sitting at home, like let's say you're one of the Joe just stood up for the stockholder, and you're just like average Joe, like Joe, and you're at home and you're watching CNBC
and you're just sitting there panicking or thinking. And I read a horrible article in the Wall Street Journal, And this is a good example of how stock crashes can be very impactful. Of people who have mandatory withdrawals for their children's five twenty nine plans. These are people who are responsibly saved and whose kid must go to college in the fall, and they're like, yeah, now it's down twenty percent and I may need to take out a
long that's horrible, you know. And yes, they've been investing over an eighteen year period. They've definitely made a killing on the first half, But what about the last couple of years that they put their money in, or maybe the money in that they just put in. Now they've
actually taken a net loss, you know, on that. That is exactly the type of thing behavior savings and all that otherwise where there are real consequences, not to even mention all the retirees who have mandatory withdrawals from their four to one k's right now.
That's right. Well, think about it this way.
So yesterday was the largest gain I believe in history for billionaires, just like astronomical amounts of money made.
You mean from law, I guess technically, yeah, we're still down to it time, okay.
Yeah, But if you were in a position to know that this news was coming out and you were in a position to make those moves, you if you're like you know, a union with a pension fund that you're running, you weren't on the inside, and you're talking about that is to benefit ordinary working class people, so you are still down right some people were in a position to make a killing. Apparently Charles schwas made billions of dollars yesterday.
That is a direct upward transfer of wealth from retail, from pensions, from you know, all of these groups that you know are just sort of like normal regular people.
What is this.
Sixty percent of Americans have some exposure to the stock mortgage. So that's why these stories really Matt. I mean, when we think about we covered so much of the insider trading allegations with Congress Nancy Pelosi and all of these people, and she would be in a position to benefit from the knowledge that she has of what Congress is up
to and what particular companies stand to benefit. That is much more indirect, frankly than I mean vastly more indirect than Trump literally being able to truth out a total new global trading regime. And lord knows, these people have no scruples. I mean, Trump did a pump and dump with his shitcoin and his wife's shitcoin. Like they're not ethical people. They are happy to cash in to their benefit. He certainly is, when you know he has knowledge that can benefit him, so frankly, I'd be shocked.
The big question is whether that's the whole purpose of what they're up to here.
And you know, some people are looking at this and are like, I can't really divine any other purpose that makes any sense here.
So it is possible that the whole point.
Is just a sort of like global economic wide pump and dump. And if that is the goal, well so far they've been phenomenally successful for that. There is one person that does not seem to have been on the inside in terms of knowing what was going on, and that's the US Trade Representative Jameson Greer, who also that's the person who Emily had floated might have been mistaken for Jeffrey.
Goldberg, but I think it was. I think it might. I saw that it might have been someone different.
But in any case, maybe he was supposed to be on the signal chat letting everybody know, and instead Jeffrey Goldberg gotta instead sorry, was testifying before Congress when and learned in real time what was going on with this, and the Democratic member who was questioning him when he finds out, he also immediately goes to the place of
like what the hell are you people doing? How do you you're in the US Trade rep How do you not know what's going on and who does and what billionaire are standing to benefit here?
Let's take a.
Listen to how that went, Dad, This is C four guys, let's go ahead and play that.
Are you aware that the terrors have been paused?
I am yes.
When were you made aware of that?
Well?
I understood the decision was made a few minutes ago.
Sitting here under discussion, sitting here under discussion.
So did you know that this was under discussion?
And why did you not include that as part of your opening remarks?
So typically, what I don't do is divulge the contents of my discussions.
What are the details of the pause?
Well, my understanding is that because so many countries have decided not to retaliate, we're going to have about ninety days No.
Excuse me, you we are the China increase their tariffs on the United States.
Trump blinked.
What's the blink? Sir?
What do you know about this pause? What are the details of it?
Well, the details, as I understand it, is that China continues to retaliate. Other countries didn't retaliate. The President two or three days ago said we wanted to negotiate with those countries that ask for that, ask for meetings. That's what we're doing.
What are the wed How long is the pause? How many days? How many weeks?
I understand it's ninety days. I haven't spoken to the present since I.
So the Trade Representative hasn't spoken to the President of the United States about a global reordering of trade?
Yes, I have, and yet hearing with you so.
But yet he announced it on a tweet. WTF who's in charge?
The President of United States is in charge?
And what do you know about those details?
I don't know what I do.
You know why that's nuts is because he Jamison Greer. Not only is he the US Trade Representative, that's a cabinet level official who's technically supposed to be in charge of a lot of this stuff. But even more, you know, when you implement the tariffs, he's the guy who writes all the stuff. He did the formula, you know, all the justification of the formula.
It was him. That's his office. That's what their job is supposed to be.
They're supposed to work with customs and border patrol and all of these other agencies to actually implement these tariffs. So it's pretty insane that he not only was not in the room, he wasn't even consulted, and he learned about it by a truth law. He's testifying live before the United States Congress. And the thing is, if you look at his opening statement, the entire opening statement is a justification of the terriff for shame. And then he
has to be like, actually, it's very smart. What are we doing?
Insane and insanity, it's part of the deal.