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Election results in North Carolina, Texas, and Arkansas very bad news for Republicans, but first of all, very good news for you guys.
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So to discuss all this, we're joined by Dave Weigel of Semaphore, David Serota of lever News.
Thank you, David, thank you.
Thanks.
I appreciate you guys being here.
So let's start with and then we're going to do a second segment later on the Republican primary, but let's start with Tallo Rico and Crockett as Serota, So it seemed like this started out as a race that didn't have any kind of ideological content to it, that it was like different different styles, like different MSNBC styles really that seemed to evolve as taller Rico and while I want your take on this too, because I can follow this clothes as tall Ico started embracing this top bottom
like we're taking on the billionaires, they're your real problem, and Crockets stuck with the whatever the MSNBC stuff is, whether what she was really.
Running it right, I'm not like a brand, like a like a vibe.
I mean, look, it's all vibes, right, it's all vibes.
I think taller Ico clearly as the campaign went on, recognized the the I guess we could call it proxy wise, like the Bernie vibe, like if you call the anti billionaire stuff like the Bernie vibe. Right, Like, I think what I take away from this race is that people like him have realized that there is that is the normal middle center of the Democratic Party.
Way, if people are getting the news from this show, he won, yes.
One, right, Like, I think we've seen in a series of races that these candidates who are winning these primaries have recognized that while there's this debate going on between you know, Third Way and you know the so called left et cetera, et cetera, that actually there isn't really much of a debate going on at the kind of voter level over anti oligarch politics that is now the just sort of mainstream normal of the Democratic Party, which I you know, taking a.
Long view now, I'm Crockett was running on that too, right yeah.
Yeah, And like like I just turned fifty recently and you're about as old as I am, Right, Okay, Like that may seem like a just like not all that interesting. Course, like that has not been the way it's been up until now. And so I look at that race and I say, wow to think about how far we've come since, like just Bernie ten years ago, Bernie five years ago. That's my takeaway of a candidate who can kind of code moderate, you know, vibe wise, code moderate, but be the anti billionaire candidate.
I want to run that past you, Dave, because one of the reasons I thought this was such an interesting primary is you have the stylistic, the stylistic Q to norms from Taller Rico, who's almost stylistically again like a Biden candidate who says We're going to restore decency to Canada. I like that exactly right, But then his policy prescription he was trying to sell populism. Really, Crockett was kind
of the other way around. She had the style of post Trump politics, but the substance of almost corporate dem politics. It's hard to say because they're both kind of mixed. And you were on the you were on the trail, weren't like I was.
I was last week and David's right, And I would start with Taller Rico picked and polarized enemies. The enemies were corporations that were working with Donald Trump to impoverish you the voter.
This is a man who took money from mariam A on a gambling Yeah.
I asked him, I think the opening interview asked him about that, and he had he had, he had an answer. It was it was like, I'm not pure. That was specific thing. I'm not going to do that in this race. It was Crockett did not run a very tight campaign, did not use that as effectively she could. She had lots of influence online calling him corrupt, but they got really sidetracked into identity where U his some speech was It's one of those in a boota judge way of
some speech. It's very memorable because it doesn't change very much. He would talk about inauguration Day and the wealthy people sitting behind on Trump, talk about Elon Musk. The impact of the Stephen Colbert thing was him talking about the Trump administration opening the door for his supporters to own corporate media and control what you see. He called it the ultimate corporate cancel culture is the one thing he called it. But it was about the enemy is these
people at the top who were dividing us. And it wasn't evading issues or pivoting. It was that She was less clear. She mentioned that a couple of times when I was covering her. She had some big events, some big conversations, but a lot more of what Democrats have not had any success with, which is, how dare some a felon, a thirty four thirty five count felon be allowed to serve in the governments like these? Get this guy's corrupt? It was like, okay, well, yeah, Trump's crupture,
but who was behind him? And how are you being distracted? And every time you're watching a reaction to him, what are you missing? It's this, it's it's it's it's this policy, it's this diminition of medicaid funding. It was bad but enemy first, which is it's it's kind of obvious. But there have been lots of Democrats. I'll never get there, and they're very they're very loose, and they do not say here's the bad guy. I will take on the bad guy. You're going to prove your life's better for
this reason. He did it all the time.
So when I was writing speeches for Bernie Sanders, some people some people would would.
Well, one I'd get raz how do you write a speech for Bernie Sanders? He says the same thing over.
I mean, that's like a that's why I got all my hair trying to you know, put in new things.
But the question of why do people show up to hear what they've already heard? It was like I feel like they a lot of people showed up on those campaigns because they liked hearing somebody recount and name the villains the enemies, because it felt like no one else was naming them. And so when you say, you know, when you point out that tall Rico was actually naming villains, naming the enemy, I feel like that's like become code for authenticity, code.
For like I am willing to name villains.
I am the people who don't want you to name villains, or the donors, like the money doesn't want you to name that. And I think this question about what is left and right? What is moderate? What is you know, liberal, et cetera, et cetera. I mean the Third Way conference this week right was all about how, you know, the Democrats need to be moderate, they need to like reject
their left. I would ask a question like in this race, who does the average voter think in the Texas primary was the candidate on the left.
Or who was the moderate right?
I think those terms like don't mean anything anymore. That's why I say, you know, when I when I when I'm referring to you know, people ask where my politics, I'm like, I'm not even sure the word.
Left or right or moderate or like. I don't think these terms mean anything anymore.
Yeah, certainly not to regular people who are trying to follow this now. The Hispanic vote swung wildly to Democrats this time. Either one of you can take this, but Tom Bond, you're a Democratic data analysts, and we could put this.
Up and post. He flagged that.
He says, Zapota County turn out in the primary there yesterday was one and forty three percent the total number of votes that Kamala Harris won in the general election. Republican Republicans very in this high profile manner, went and redistricted Texas to try to add a couple of members. And I want to get your take on this. It may end up being an incredible own goal, shoot yourself
in the foot kind of moment. So he flags four of the districts congressional districts, the ninth, twenty eighth, thirty fourth, and thirty fifth that were redistricted in order to be Republican districts in each one of them, Democratic primary turnout was higher than GOP primary turnout in some cases by like three or four thousand, other cases by twenty to thirty to forty thousand more votes.
So these are in order to get.
More districts, get more seats, you have to take a seat where you normally win by thirty and you take it down to like five or ten, and then you take those voters and you spread them out. But if it's a wave, all of a sudden, you've put all of these districts in range of Democrats, which one do you want to take.
More in that direction than by sure back in Apkin analysis, Ben, if it's just like a twenty twenty Hispanic breakdown, than those seats are hard for Republicans to win.
I've been to that region a lot.
I'd say there's a long period where Democrats are just into denial that it could change because Donald Trump was the nominatee and listen to what he says and look at the numbers for Hillary Clinton. He destroyed. He got destroyed in that region. The Tallerka campaign. I think everyone knows Chuck Roaches writers, but he spent a lot of time in the district He was very clear on ice and making the argument that again Democrats I think are
mostly comfortable making, even if they don't like saying abolish. Well, we agree with that immigration enforcement is good, but why are they flagging down Hispanic people and seeing if they have papers? That's popular there. Border patrol is very popular. If you've been to the South Texas, people have employers. Well, yeah, you know, you know the Blue Lives Matter flag. You'll see a green line in a flag that's the border.
Patrol flag Myra Flora. Yeah, exactly.
And he was careful about that, but it was it was spending time in that area. And also talking about religion. I think there are gonna be a lot of criticisms of how he talks about.
Religion, many from me.
Yeah, it's a little more.
Like gnostic than most Hispanic Catholics are comfortable with when it comes to like the divinity or God's gender, et cetera.
Which, by the way, it's something that was hugely divisive in the real Grand Valley for Democrats, this question of like what's moderate what's not it's I agree, the labels are really hard to say because it's like he runs this is a kind of stylistic moderate. Where is he in some of these cultural issues Hispanic voters in the real Grand Valley independent type Hispanic voters, that might be an issue for them.
It was, and I did meet Hispanic voters per saying their film family was Magga the last election. I very forgot right wing Catholic family who share memes on Facebook and they can't believe they're Democrat, but they can send them a Talla Rico video about something specific and say, well, this is what I believe, and it was.
It's not going down the litmus.
The litmus tests of a Catholic voter who's pro pro life, he's not going to match that. So a gender critical person, he's not going to match that. But just talking about faith in the way he did, quoting the Book of Matthew, quoting the Sermon on the Mount, just doing that versus the secularism they were used to from other Democrats. Beato or Work is not very comfortable doing that. A lot of Democrats are not. They don't go to church very much,
they don't talk about it going to church. The fact that he was a seminarian and talked about God at all, I think I was maybe a little bit cynical about that because when going in where I.
Went there, but people just they had not heard that.
They were hearing democrats talking about shouting your abortion and talking about he would talk about Christian nationalism, which I think is more for the you know, John Oliver audience. But the part they were hearing was we at least quoting the Bible. I haven't heard a Democrat come hearing quote the Bible because he's not like Henry Quaihar who knows the region. He's at least trying, and he made some inroads that way. But that plus the ice thing.
This is and I've heard that from Arizona and from other places too, that look, they're not saying abolish ice. They're saying there has to be some goldilocks bull in the middle. That is that is protecting the border and not chasing my friend down because he has a Mexican flag on his truck because he's fifth generation.
He just has a Mexican flag.
Well, last point before we go to a needle, Alam and you may have something to ads Rohoda. It's just Crockett was flirting with like just dragging this out last night, was saying, looks like there's cheating in Dallas, Jowny, and this is what Republicans did. It was unclear what she totally meant by that just a half an hour ago. Yes, so she really was going full.
Stop the steal.
Last night pulled back from that, and so she has conceded as of this morning, but she was going in that direction. I don't know, if you get anyone wants to jump.
I just wonder if all of this is actually something like more simple that it is an anti system vote. Yeah, right, like that. I mean, I'm just thinking through the last many elections. The last time the party that was perceived to be in power was re elected was twenty twelve, right like, think about it, like Obama winning re election and then like every election seems like a referendum on
who is perceived to be in power. And so I think, you know, when it comes to dicing different voting segments, I think the larger question.
Is maybe it's as simple as the whoever is perceived to.
Be the anti system candidate is going to be the one to get that swing. Like we like our swing voters Latino voters, are they working class voters? Maybe this wing voter is like none of those categories, and it's the anti system voter who feels like they keep voting for change and not getting any.
Change, which is in all of those voted for it.
Yeah, exactly so in Arkansas, will we don't even have you go deep into this, but they had a Supreme Court election. Kamala Harris lost Arkansas by thirty one points. The Republican seems to have won it by about ten. So a twenty one point swing in Arkansas not great now a race that we covered a lot.
In North North Carolina four.
Valerie Fushi elected in twenty twenty two with an enormous amount of crypto money and a PAC money. She evolved in twenty twenty six to a PAC money and AI money.
So better or worse, I don't quite a path on it, wherever you can get it.
She vowed that she wouldn't take any A pack money, so it got ended up getting rooted through this this other pack. She raised very little herself, and so two plus million dollars kind of rained down on her alam in the last like week and a half two weeks of the race. We can put up the results there has not been called yet. The Fushi is up by one thousand and twenty point twenty votes or something like that.
That's a little under one roughly one percent. Doesn't seem like there are enough votes for ni Alam to come back. But what it does suggest is that absent this two million plus dollars and ni Alam had her own kind of anti or pro Palestine super pac linked to Bernie Hanna verdict old Bernie.
Can't beat them them. It's kind of organized.
Muslim money is finally kind of breaking onto the scene. So she had some sport, nothing approaching what what Fushi had. It does seem like that was decisive, Like without that two plus million in the last couple of weeks, she ends up. You know, food this incombent would have gone down. What was was? What was your raid on this race?
I mean, my question coming out of this race is how much is this going to change how all of the other House Democratic incumbent campaign.
Nobody wants to win by it?
Right, you'd rather win by a thousand, Ye lose by a thousand, but you'd like to like you You don't.
Like to have to work that hard, right? I mean? And there was that, I think there was.
It was an Axios piece earlier this week that it was thirty House Democrats now have primary challengers who've raised more than.
One hundred thousand dollars.
Now one hundred thousand dollars not going to when you a Democratic primary.
But it makes you nervous, right, I mean.
And I thought what was funny was it was like that, you know, unnamed sources, the House Democratic leadership are like.
Enraged that there's so much money being.
Spent on And what my takeaway from it is they've gotten so used to never having to fight at all for their's party, for their parties nomination.
And again I go back to party exactly.
And the thing is, I wrote a book back in two thousand and seven saying like this was going to be a moment all the way back then.
That's how old we all are now, Okay, President, right, Okay, we I there, you go. Okay. That the rage of.
That moment was going to be channeled in one direction or the other. And I think what happened on the left end of that spectrum was it was channeled into the Democratic Party through through the Hope and Change brand, and it was on the right it was channeled into the Tea Party. And I think now the difference in this moment is it's the same, if not more level of rage.
But the polls that show that the.
Democratic base is annoyed and angry and frustrated with its own leadership was not a condition that existed back then, And so I think that is what the current Democratic Party leadership is just not used to and is sort of scandalized by right because on the right in the Republican Party, the idea of Republican primaries against incumbents, that's become somewhat more normalized than in a like the idea that like a Democrat like I live in Colorado, the
idea that John Hickenlooper might have and he does have a primary, Yeah, he's got a challenge, right, the whole idea, Like you talk to people in Democratic circles in Colorado, it's like no one could possibly it's a blue state.
No one's going to put primary a sitting a senator.
I'm not sure what's going to happen in that race, but I guess the point is it's a long way of saying the presumption for so long has been that there will not be a challenge, that the people who are in power are scandalized, and I think to come back to this primary. I think every House Democrat is going to look at that and be like, I don't want to have to run for just my party's nomination and have to deal.
With something like that.
Yeah, and Dave, not every Democrat can get the kind of help that she got from and particularly from Hakim Jeffreyes.
So he put her within days of.
In days of Niitlam launching her campaign, he put her on this three person Democratic task force to write AI policy. And what that is is that is a giant signal to the AI industry that you need to shower money on this person. The others are Ted lew and Josh Gotttheimer, like both voracious fundraisers, Gottheimer in particular, and so they did. They came in one point six million at last counting. I bet when we get the final numbers it'll be it'll be higher as anthropics Coalition of AI.
So it's the AI safety people, the good guys.
But so he did that, and then then there was also this pack that he's connected to that raised money from a pack, moved it through a separate pack so that it could called Article one pack, so that she could abide by her promise to not take any more a pac moneies. But Jefferies can't do that for everybody. I mean maybe he can't, can he? So how are to throw this question? How are how are House Democrats responding to this? And you have any other thoughts from covering this race?
Yeah, I covered more close of the twenty twenty two race when it was an open seat, and at that point it was a more fair map. But anyway, it was a safe Democratic seat. And in that race which you've been setting up, it was very clear that Fouchet was the pro Israel candidate. She got the APEC support, it just was not in the democratic conversation as a top issue very Then how did she what did she do in the advance of this race? She disclaimed the
APEC money. Now it helped her in the in the end, but she made it very splashy at a town hall announcement that she was not gonna take their support anymore.
She co signed block the bombs.
She when the Iran war started, Nita was very quickly as she went to her her house and couldn't add at what she was against the wharf for. She didn't do that, just a less energetic candidate in general, but she was opposed to the war too. So would she have won had she not done that, I don't think so. I don't think with that money. If she was running as Dan Goldman that in that district she would she would have lost. She needed to be critical of Israel.
Some things, she needed the pro Israel money, and she needed to be answered.
Some memorable okay, well on voting for this person, and she's moving in the right direction. In twenty twenty two, and this is I interviewed the then CEO of APAC and twenty twenty two about how they run ads and what works. But in twenty tway two it was this is good politics, but maybe we're going to do the issue that's but we're not going to say this is the best canon on Israel, going to say something else.
And now it's they're giving them a little bit of permission structure to denounce pro Israel politics just because maybe they'll get there and they they don't want more voices in Congress that are criticizing them.
So I think that is one lesson for all these candidates.
And there's Illinois primaries in the next week, but for all these races, if you have a progressive challenger, what do you say on Israel? It's important that the permission structure has been created for you to, you know, denounce them three times and then and then and then get elected anyway. But what does that say about their their the power of their issue. We could look at the polling, but I think this is even more more powerful to say that you cannot in order to survive a primary.
By one point, she had to very performatively say and also, I'm against the I don't she said genocide to the end, but I mean against what Israel's doing. I'm against the war, etcetera, etcetera. You need two million dollars and that that's new.
I think.
And just one other point, I think that it's interesting to think about the A pack issue and the AI issue. The A pack issue, for a long time had been an issue where there wasn't as organized and motivated an anti constituency, so the money could go to candidates and the candidates didn't have to worry about organized popular opposition in a democratic primary.
They were kind of helping moderate or you're moderate and you're going to get the APEC money.
To right, and the voters don't really care now the voters really care. Where I think I'm terrified about, like is the world going to survive? Are we going to go into like sky net world? Is that the AI money assume that there isn't a similarly organized voting block
against them. In other words, the AI money presumes for now that we can give a lot of money to democrats get them to be pro AI, because they don't have to worry that in taking the money and in being pro AI, they're going to prompt an organized popular
resistance with political consequences when they run for election. You see that what you saw it with crypto too, right like, and you think about these dynamics where where you want a candidate to go out you know, if you're a progressive, maybe you want your candidate to go out there and say Crypto's terrible, or go out there and say AI is terrible.
Why aren't they doing that? Well?
The answer is is because I think at a candidate by candidate level, they fear that if they speak up, even if they sort of in their heart agree with speaking up and against you know, deregulation of the financial sector or AI et cetera, et cetera, that not enough vote will care and all that will do is prompt a flood of money again, They'll become the next Katie Porter and.
That set round exactly.
Yeah, they very bragged about that, bragged about that. That's our example. That's like here shared Brown's head, Do you want to be him?
Yeah, It's like it's like the money is organized on those issues, but the people aren't.
A pack was exploiting that in the sense of the money was organized, but the anti Apack people weren't organized. Now that's an organized constituency in a way that that does what happened.
One very small point is that a lom and the ad I mentioned she did try to tie that to Bochet by saying, and she's supported by the sort of AI companies that are giving intelligent that are helping prosecute this war, and the ones that are building the data centers. And it was I think maybe she was a couple of weeks early for that or a couple who knows how long the data started to make that argument, but it wasn't it wasn't there yet. That's where she took it.
I think that's where people you're talking about will take it.
Yeah, and I think the data the local data center stuff will has the chance to actually create organized politically.
Yes, yeah, it's already been happening.
I would if I were her, I would have yeah, she said, you know, it's it's the AI used by Ice and used by for the Venezuela and for the and then iron lateran here. But yeah, I think, yeah, it's the day the data because.
There is water and the energy of my electricity bills against it, and they're coming in right really yeah, because otherwise it's like Crypto and AR.
It's like a bank shot. It's a hard sell because a lot of people like crypto and a Yes.
And also we're looking at monster turnout in Texas, by the way, I think that's something worth adding. It looks like right now that it's roughly double what it was for Beto's not a hugely contested primary. In Bettle's case, I think he won with like ninety percent of the vote, So you can understand why you would have a higher turnout this time around. But that's a signal the DEM base is organized and energized and ready to go in November.
Yeah, if you told somebody a month ago, Crockett's going to be a million votes and say, oh, she's gonna win. Like, nobody gets a million votes in Texas Democratic primer.
That's usually the total. It's usually around a million. This it looks like it's going north of two million.
Can I also say that, like, as somebody who has worked on campaigns, I do appreciate that if you know, in broad strokes here that tall Rico seemed to run, as we were discussing before this run like a quote unquote a real campaign.
Like organizers like.
The ads had a message sort of much more of a grassroots footprint than Crockett Crockett sort of, you know, I think basically ran as like like an influencer campaign, like a purely influencer campaign, not like not as much of a real campaign.
And I think.
I worry about turning campaigns into just I am with my iPhone, you know, making TikTok videos, not really out in the community, and that being validated by voters. Like I think there's something good about the person who was whose campaign was more grassroots, more in the community, more of a traditional campaign, was actually validated by voters and.
Still used TikTok and Instagram in the service of that rather than as a thing, right.
In itself.
Interestingly, he got more money from K Street Political had an analysis.
But they both did.
Let's move to the Republican results in Texas. We'll talk about Ken Paxson and Corny who are going to go to a runoff in a moment, but let's start with Dan Crenshaw. So this is a very well known Republican.
You might have thought it very kind of reviled Republican.
It's such a case.
Why do actually, I want to ask Emily, why do people hate this guy?
Why say that he got absolutely obliterated by the way, it was fifty as of right now with ninety five percent of the votes in, it's fifty five point eight percent to forty point six percent. Crenshaw I believe got elected. I mean, this is he got trounced.
And Emily's very happy, and we're like, he seems like the other Republicans. Tell us from Colorado where we have like Lauren Bobert, and that would never happen to Lauren Bobert.
I don't think hate each other.
What's there. I'm sure they hate each other.
He's I mean, he hates anybody who is aligned with Tucker Carlson, but he also very high profile, had picked high profile fights with Sean Ryan, who was really popular with conservative podcast listeners. But you know, just on a substance of level, he was out of touch with the base on foreign policy. He's an insider trading, Maven. He loves to trade on inside he trades. Now that he's losing accents, well, he was a he wouldn't call it,
he wouldn't call it insider trading. But of course he's in Congress and he's trade, which is actually, interestingly enough, one of the things that this White House has zeroed in on being an important part of the Trump agenda for the midterm cycle. That's what they were at Capitol Hill, cub talking about. That's what they're They're saying that Trump is going to run Republican candidates twenty twenty six on stopping congressional insider trading.
So do it, because the.
Insider trading should happen only in the White House.
It only happens on it's only in market trading people, and it is a sacred task.
But anyway, so.
The can't create their own coins and have people buy them for access.
Amazing, But he was his his self a grant listening he's just my perspective, and he's self aggrandizing, uh anti populist in ways that were wildly out of touch with the moment and just made him a really bad guy from my perspective. I think voters probably had a similar perspective. But Figo, you've I think I've only ever talked to him like once, and in that conversation, he was talking to me about Tucker Carlson unprompted, so.
You set it up very well.
He also the the remap of the state gave him areas he had not represented. They had not seen his campaign as, and he stopped doing these. But are you are you aware of his action movie ads the Michael Lace for he would he would pair shoot into people's districts to save them. That they hadn't seen those, but they had seen Tucker. Steve Toath who won Tucker had a long interview with him four months ago. Didn't make a lot of news because that's who outside of Southeast
Texas knows who Steve Toath is. But everything you said, he was a interventionist, anti populist who was believed that the not the part of the American First Movement, not all of it was going to wreck the Republican Party, and that if that is the people who are voting, they might take objection to that.
It's really that simple.
And I was a little surprised that you were saying you were surprised, but it wasn't on more people people's radars because this is a project for years to get rid of that guy. I don't know who first coined ipatch McCain, but that was the way he was seeing this is a long run. It might have been it probably him, Yeah, but he did not cultivate support from people who who didn't like him. In twenty eighteen, I was I was also strugg chip Roy in the middle of the basically he was doing that and.
Chip Roy is running for AG.
He had TEDFI I finally say ted Crews endorsed to endorse his opponent. A lot of Republicans wanted him gone, so part of his personal but it wouldn't have been possible if he wasn't.
So alienated from America first.
But I was gonna say, chip Roy running for AG came in second to a Maggot candidate, and that was more about Trump, but it was also sort of the heterodots. Can we trust this guy. His instincts are not the same as those of us who want to just keep resources in the country who have questions.
About the twenty twenty election.
And these are both guys who I think had bigger, big profiles in DC because.
How media works.
You know, we're you're more interesting to the media if you'll criticize your party for them.
Sometimes no interest in that.
In Texas, very a lot of love and confidence that Donald Trump is doing the right thing. So if your brand is trashing not just Trump but influential speak conservative thinkers and speakers, you've alienated more people than you'd alienate by, you know, going to the rotary club and insulting. They hear about that, and media diet has changed in ways that clearly Crenshaw I think also has or had a podcast he was trying to get the space. Yes that they that was not as popular it's as it was.
I also wonder if in a race like this, how much somebody like Crenshaw is hurt by the fact that independent voters in an open price and open.
Primary, Yeah, you just pull a ballot.
Right, so but you have to choose.
In other words, how many independent voters were animated by voting for Tallarico and didn't come into a race, couldn't pull up for somebody like Crenshaw, Right, Like, I mean that in open primary states, you can be a candidate in a primary and think you're going to be rescued by or helped by independent voters. But if there's a race higher on the ticket where most of the independent voters are going to be voted, they can't come help you.
Right, that should be able to pick you want to vote right race by race.
Yeah, that's not how.
Granted, this is a pretty decisive margin so far, who knows where. Yeah, I think that is.
A great point.
Definitely bigger than the surprise is definitely that bit that Texas knew he was at risk, but not that he was just walking in with white.
Yeah, and he's someone who came in with a lot of momentum because people might remember he got made fun of as looking like a porn star by Pete Davidson on SNL and everyone was like, he's a veteran. So they brought him back on SNL and he was on Weekend Update and everyone was like, this is the way Republicans will win young voters. Dan Crenshaw knows how to use new medium pop culture. So he had youth summits
Frenshaw youth summits of his own where conservative organizations. He was trying to do like a mini seapack for young people in Texas where conservative organizations would like by booths, and it never really got off the ground. But he saw himself as a light for the Republican Party. And this is a really decisive refutation of that. Let's talk about Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton, like Chip Roy, headed to a runoff with John Cornyn. We can put F three
up on screen. This is the results, very very interesting results in this race. Cornyn overperformed what a lot of people expected. He's not quite a Crenshaw style figure. He's been around Texas for a long time. He's obviously a senator, so he has probably more built in goodwill, but is definitely friendly with leadership. He's a member of the GOP establishment, no question about that. Lots of people in Texas angry about that post Ubaldi gun bill that Cornyn got behind.
That's definitely been a problem for him. Wesley Hunt pulls in through thirteen point five percent Senate Leadership Fund aligned with Cornin, then lashes out at Wesley Hunt as he's defeated, and it's basically like, well, we could have avoided a runoff if you hadn't even gotten into this.
Corn votes Wellesley Hunt. Let's what do you think, Migel by the end.
I don't think they are because the last two weeks in Texas you'd see the ads. The last two weeks was as Left going after Hunt. They wanted this number. So what is their theory of this race. It is get Cornyn above Packs by any margin at all. If it was a if it was like the polls were a month ago and it was Paxton forty three Cornyn thirty three, Hunt better than he did, then Trump would look at that and say, this guy's a loser. I'm not going to endorse him. They just want Trump to
endorse John Cornan. Forget any other issue in the race, just endorse him. And right now, in other rooms, I am sure they're saying they got we got Tallerico, not Crockett. There's no runoff on their side, so we're not sure Paxton could win. Texas Republicans are not that worried. I mean, they voted for this was the start I covered in twenty twenty two running it for ag after all of his indictments.
George P.
Bush was running as the savior who would save the ag seed, and Paxton was fine. So it's tough to consence Republican voter. The people in DC who make these donations, we're pretty well convinced that Paxton would blow it to Tallerriico, So they're going to do that today. We're not talking about any ideological differences. They're really weren't any of the campaign. The entire argument against Hunt was that he was a
show voter, never showed up for votes. It was not he voted wrong on something, it was just that and packs were just kind of he wasn't raising as much money, but he was kind of holding his powder because he knew he had this locked in.
He had.
I mean, this is similar what he got I think in the his A Jube primary because he had two challengers. I think he did a little bit better. But that's that's the story. It's just there to the extent there is a big Republican establishment. This has been their thing for years. Is just we can't really make a positive argument for our guy's individual record. We can say that Trump loves them, So let's just like, wait this out and see if we can get Tumpet in the race.
And the Hunt thing, the Hunt theory was Cordon's so weak that I can leap frog in and I'd easily win.
That's true.
And if Republicans blow this at some point, they'll say, why did we invest so much when we could have just easily held the seat with Wesley Hunt, who would not have any any problem, no scandals. That was kind of the premises of a campaign. I'm a family man, I'm a Christian, I'm a veteran. Look at this resume. It's incredible. I'll just hold the seat, no problem. You know, you dance with them that brung you, and they knew Cornyn, they wanted him back. So it almost depressing talk of
these races. But literally know any logical difference, it is just we know this guy, let's help him out.
Screw this guy for opposing him.
Yeah, Now, the ban and the ban and wing will argue that that's not the case. You know, they described Cornyn as a rhino, a liberal.
Yeah, he voted for that gun will seriously well some of it.
His vibes right, that he's friendly with McConnell world and fune world, and that he'll you know, throw Republicans under the bus if he has to at any point, like some of it's just like this guy's been around.
Also point yeah, he's probably not running for reelection. He's like seventy seven or something, so he'd be eighty at the end of this, so he would be beholden only to people who are going to pay for his retirement. Paxton, you know, was the first Republican AG to join Trump and trying to overturn the twenty twenty election. Paston has gone after big tech all over the place.
To the Supreme Court back, He'll he'll file these lawsuits on on social issues that no other Republican. He'll get to the head of the pack. I think him Andrew Bailey in So that's an that if you are a religious conservative, he is the one fighting for you.
And what's corn done.
On that even though he's a you know, yah, I'm an aulterer.
Well, it's always going around.
It's almost like who these It's always like who these politicians think they owe, right. I understand why Bannon and Maga wants Paxton and not Cornyn because it's not I mean, you're right, maybe you go down like bill by bill, issue by issue, it's pretty similar, but it's it's the perception of who they think they answer to, right the I think the perception probably among the MAGA folks is John Cornyn doesn't think he answers to us, yes, right, well, yeah,
he answers to that, yeah, yeah right. And Ken Paxon clearly does answer to us. Ken Paxson sees that his political formula is by aligning with us all the time, and that's what they want.
Well, last point that I was going to make is so run off May twenty six, got a couple months for that now. But also what the thread between our first segment on and Republicans I think that's interesting is this is one of the first midterm cycles post twenty twenty four. It's the first midterm cycle post twenty twenty four,
but it's also the independent media midterm cycle. Yeah right, Like, are we pass the point of critical mass on independent media changing these narratives in a way that does really hurt incumbents and herts establishment candidates. Where Anita Alam can make a race uncomfortable, where Dan Crenshaw can get trounced, and I mean, I don't know I think that's that Tallarico can run ads on top versus bottom.
And it's up against huge money on the Republican side if you count the uncounted like C four and C three money.
I'm curious if you would think this is correct.
I've seen the like Paxton crowd and backs and supporters saying it probably approaches one hundred million if you factor mail and everything in that we don't know about yet.
And they made buy the last quarters yeah, yeah, they bought every point yeah, and then behind tax in four or five six million, like a lot of money, but nowhere near one hundred million dollars.
They're now looking at potentially if if Trump can't figure out a way to like nuke this primary, another one hundred or two million spent over is it two months or three months?
Is it June?
It's Almo almost three months March April May of Republicans like savagely attacking each other. So to spend one hundred million dollars and to have a guy who's been in office for decades and before that was attorney general attacks like they know who this guy is, and still he gets forty one point nine percent.
Is it crazy to think that.
If corn spends another hundred million dollars the next three months against Paxton and Packston beats him, that then he's wounded enough that it's actually a toss up in Texas.
Or should we not pay.
Attention to Texas because we've been fooled so many times.
It's like fly this right. No, and Tallarico then loses by eight or something.
Well, and it would be unlike twenty twenty two twenty eighteen with Cruz. Kruz has his enemies in Texas, but better at raising money, has no scan whatever you think of him, does not have any personal scandals.
Family man.
It would be a weaker can it they had in twenty eighteen a stronger Democrat? No, not not impossible. It just what's happened. It's that Latino vote shift. If that's what Ken Paxton's betting on, that the Rio Grand Valley's point is going to lock in the race for him.
No, would it would be a tough race.
I don't think they're full of it when they say that Paxton makes them spend money and Cornyn doesn't. It would be a he's part of the establishment race, But it wouldn't be He would again have the money, and they're just Paxton has not cultivated the sort of people who can just keep dipping in. There are a lot of in Texas and pax was very successful in twenty
twenty four and getting rid of in primaries. Republicans can vote to impeach him in the state legislatives, but that's a smaller investment.
That's two hundred thousand dollars. You can take a guy out.
It's not if tall Rico becomes a phenom as he already kind of is and spends one hundred does Paxon have one hundred? From the nerity s see no, And you've seen turning point in groups that are still angry that there wasn't that money for Blake Masters in Arizona, but there was money to save Lucia Rakowski in Alaska. It would be a continuing sore point for why should grassroots people get to it now? Stant leadership funds the opposite of grass roots. They don't don't they don't care
about that. But that is the sort of thing the tellery we can talk about. My DC wants this this to happen. I have some donors and that are in DC. Sure we all do, but I but this this guy, this guy, this guy owes people. And I don't the elements of an argument there. And but yeah, pat Packs is just uh, I do think it's underage. Just he's the guy if if a social conservative wants to sue abortion clinics or to investigate clinics that do gender medicine
for minders, he will do it. He is a But Texans Texas Republicans have not sent one of those guys to the Senate. They've sent more talented politicians who have some appeal be on the conservative base. This would be new for them if they try in Paxton.
Now, everybody, everybody says Paxson is the more vulnerable candidate, the Paxton crowd that his defenders, They say the opposite.
I'm curious for your take off. This is cop or if anything real to this.
Their argument is Cornan has spent one hundred million dollars attacking our boy.
We love Ken Paxton.
We are so mad that how vicious you have been to our guy. That if Cornyn wins effort, we're staying home, and and that and that a chunk of Paxson voters won't even vote at all.
I don't, I don't think I'm buying that.
I think what I what I The one grain of truth I think is that there's an argument that John Cornyn being the nominee makes it easier for Tallarico to be the anti system candidate, right the the there in Washington, I'm I'm and and you can imagine the exactly and and and and tall Ico can do the whole. It's both parties in Washington, like it's Washington is the problem, whether Republican or Democrat, and and Paxson makes that harder, definitely.
Right, Paxton.
I think that then what Tallerico probably has to do is it's more of an anti Trump campaign or an anti base of the like sort of the the extremist base of the that that's how it would be portrayed.
The Republican Yeah exactly, they they want to run against Paxston. That's true.
Yeah, right, But I but I do think that like Cornyn being that the old establishment, I guess, which is kind of crazy, but can be portrayed as the like country club Republican news right, Like that's a whole different campaign that I'm not convinced is like not.
Effective, like I think it can be. Next to a picture of Biden exactly exactly.
Oh yeah, I did see corner to sleep on a plane recently with his path anyway to sleep on a plane. But it was it was almost like Biden ask right, except he was on a flight, so he should be.
Sleeping on a flight.
God bless anyone who could sleep on a plane. All Right, we'll have to leave it there, everyone, Dave and Dave, thank you so much.
Thank you, thanks for having me here.
This is a lot of fun.
We appreciate it. Go check out obviously some offore and lever News. That's going to do it for us today.
Ryan, Yeah, and so again bringingpoints dot com. We got that month free, so BP free twenty six. Yeah, people share that with anybody else.
That's just for people who watch this segment.
No, this is for everybody.
Share it with a friend, with your friends, but not just not like people.
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To have you just burned a hundred million dollars. Thanks guys, thank you appreciate it.