Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Indeed, we do.
Lots of interesting things unfolding right here in the nation's capital. We finally got the text of that border plus Ukraine plus Israel deal and there is something for everyone to hate. Apparently we will get into what's in it, and also it's increasingly long odds of actually passing. At the same time, we are taking a look at the fact that AI is already taking white collar jobs.
In spite of the.
Fact that tech has in many ways recovered this year record revenues all that kind of stuff, they are still shedding jobs and AI appears to have a lot to do with it. We're also going to do a little review, possibly debate. I'm not sure about the Apple vision pro Saga and I believe have different assessments.
Of the utility and the future of this thing.
Jeff Stein is coming in studio to give us a breakdown on a very simple question.
How is the economy actually a very challenging.
Web to answer? I wish it was simple.
Yeah, it should be a simple question, but it actually is really not. We have an American general who is saying that Israel is completely failing in their stated objectives in gods. So this comes as the US has been caught lying about whether or not they actually gave a rock pre notification about those strikes over the weekend. And we're also taking a look at one provision in that Border Ukraine Israel bill that would permanently ban funding from UNRA, that is the main aid agency on the ground to
benefit Palestinians, what that could mean. And also actually got a little bit of a look at what the allegations are. And let me tell you something, guys. Those allegations against UNRUN employees completely devoid of any evidence. So a lot to get to you this morning.
Yeah, I'm really excited to talk about everything for today's show. Before we get to that, though, we did have our RFK Junior focus group that just happened last night in the state of Michigan.
It was really interesting.
We've already got some amazing results, and I think you guys are going to be really struck and in some cases honestly moved by some of the reasons why people support RK. A lot of it having to do with just a rejection of the two party systems. So I think it's really going to resonate and for our premium members, you guys get to watch it early and you get to support work like this Breakingpoints dot Com. We have
a discount currently available for our annual members. But it's always good to hear from people directly.
Yea, Absolutely.
Griffin was there on the ground during the focus group, so he gave us a little bit of a preview of what to expect. And I'm personally really looking forward to watching it and hearing from these folks why they have decided to throw in with RFK Junior. And he also said they're very optimistic, Yeah, very very optimistic that he could actually win and be the next president. That'll be really interesting to listen it's.
Going to be exciting. I think you guys will enjoy it.
We'll release it as a podcast again exclusively and early available to our premium members, So Breakingpoints dot com if you want to take advantage.
Now.
Let's move to the areas of the Border bill which were paired with aid military aid to Ukraine and to Israel. Senator Schumer had a stunning pronouncement on MSNBC yesterday in his advocacy for the bill, where he said that if the bill is not passed and money is not given to Ukraine, America will regredit because then American troops will have to be sent to fight in Ukraine.
Here's what he had to say.
Well, if we don't aid Ukraine, Putin will be walk all over Ukraine. We will lose the war, and we could be fighting in Eastern Europe in a NATO ally in a few years. Americans won't like that. If we don't help Israel defend itself, Aviance Thomas, that perpetual war go.
Go on and on and on.
If we don't help humanitarian aid to the starving Palestinians in Gaza, hundreds of thousands could starve, and the order everyone has said it's chaos.
A speaker. You just saw.
Speaker Johnson, he said, it's chaos. We have to do something legislative a few months ago. But what has happened? And answer your your question. So this is crucial for America. It's a turning point. History is going to look over our shoulders and say, did we rise to the occasion? To his credit, Mix McConnell did. But too many Republicans, including Speaker Johnson, are just scared to death of Donald Trump.
It is insane that the way that they act like they would have no choice in the matter, I know, but to send our sons and daughters to die in Ukraine if you don't give them even more money than they've.
Already given it.
You know what's amazing in this bill that I think it was Michael Tracy.
That pulled this out.
One of the provisions of the bill is that the Ukraine funding includes that we have to come up with a strategy for Ukraine for the future. It's like, wait a second, aren't you supposed to have a strategy already. We've been at this for years at this point, and you're admitting you just literally have no strategy for how this is to end.
Guys, we actually have that.
Can we put a seven please up on the screen. I will read directly from the text of the bill. He says that the House of Representatives will have a strategy regarding the United in Ukraine against aggression. That such strategy must be provided for a multi year, established, specific and achievable objectives, define and prioritize the US national security interests. This will hasten Ukrainian victory against Russian invasion forces.
I do want to.
Spend time on this because it's one of the most dishonest things that.
People who are pro Ukraine saying.
They're like, well, if Ukraine is defeated, then American troops will have to fight. Why Ukraine's not in NATO, It actually doesn't change anything. If Latvia is invaded then yeah, that's a different story. Then yeah, we would be in a fight because they're in NATO. Ukraine's got nothing to do with NATO. Ukraine is a former Soviet state which
has no security obligation zero from the United States. I would also say it is the most stupid argument because it's one of those where it's Domino theory in reverse. For example, Crystal Currently the line is to support Taiwan.
We have to support Ukraine.
And the reason why is because if Ukraine falls, then China will be in bolden to support Taiwan or in bay Taiwan. And my friend Elvit Kolby always points out, if you think Taiwan is under threat, then you should support weapons to Taiwan and more navy destroyers in the South China Sea. That has to do with Taiwan. But don't try and do all of this convoluted jiu jitsu about well if this happens, and this may happen, which may invite somebody to do this, No, no, no, no, make
the argument on its face. And the reason they can't is because the Ukraine War is a failure and a disaster. Since the day of that Spring Offensive, if you want to call that from the Ukrainians, they haven't advanced a single inch of territory. They have squandered probably up to
a million of their own citizens. They are currently undertaking a draft which includes people who are blind, disabled and barely functional in their fifties, throwing them into a meat grinder, begging us for more bullets as they sacrifice their own people, and at the same time have been completely militarily inept to apply any tactics that have even remotely worked in retaking their territory.
It's their fault.
They decided not to take that peace deal back in twenty twenty two, many supported also by the United States, and now the two of us are in this you know, death grip where we're watching the failure of our policy just go apart. Zelensky, by the way, I should say, is in free fall. He's firing his top commander. Why because the guy admitted to the economists that it's a stalemate.
That's why he's firing him.
He's, you know, for the being honest.
The crime of being honest. He's firing many top ministers. He's finally allowing some of the tip of the iceer corruption to come to light. Who knows how many billions we're squandered and were stolen, you know, by the Ukrainian oligarchs.
Now at this point the.
Only humanitarian thing and strategically important thing you could do would be to sue for pieces soon as humanly possible. But honestly, at this point they have squandered their chances such that the Russians just yesterday we took a city. If I were the Russians at this point, because America is so distracted and all this thing, I would take the whole thing. I would roll through the whole country as much as I could. And it's their own fault
that they got themselves in this position. You know, good luck with your drones and your F sixteen's and all that. It's about men, it's about bullets, and you were never going to.
Be able to do it.
I mean, it's really our fault too, so for pushing them into this war and giving them all the insurance assurances that we would be there forever and we would back them forever and give them what they needed in order to succeed. So, I mean, our hands are incredibly bloody with this entire conflict. And so I do think it's very revealing that within this document, within this bill pledging additional support to Ukraine, it's like, oh, and let's
also come up with a strategy. The only strategy at this point is how do we possibly get to another place where there can be negotiations and diplomacy, because that's the only way this is going to end. And right now it's already a complete disaster. We already missed the best moment that would have achieved for Ukraine, the best deal that they were possibly going to get on in this situation.
And that's just the sad truth.
Absolutely, And you know, and then they can't complain is that, oh, we sacrifice so many people. It's like, well, welcome to the logic of the First World War. You should have tried to settle it whenever you could. Should you listen to.
The wrong guy.
Honestly, it's heartbreaking.
On Israel as well.
There's just you can't even make some of this stuff up. Let's put this up there on the screen again. Flagged by Michael Tracy, he says and points out all of these seventeen billion.
Dollars appropriated for Israel in this bill.
Any congressional notification requirement applicable to funds made available under this heading in the Act for Israel will be waived if the Secretary of State determined so in the national
interest of the United States. In other words, it specifically exempts Israel and Ukrainian funding from congressional oversight, meaning that you are not allowed to, as we saw in the past, ask any inquiries about corruption, ask any inquiries about whether this is compliant to this military aid with US law like for example, violating the Lahy Act and not being misapplied against civilian forces.
Or any oversight whatsoever. So what is the point?
Like imagine Congress coming in and being like, we want to abdicate our responsibility, But it actually makes sense because they don't want to know what the money and the weapons are being used for. It's just want to turn them over and then look the other way, at least pretend that it doesn't exist.
It's just codifying what has already been reality with this White House, because we've covered how multiple times they've skirted Congressional authorization to rush through they've skirted their own state department policies to rush through whatever weapons shipments that they want to.
So this is just codifying what has.
Already been reality and what the overwhelming majority of members of Congress have already accepted. And to that point, put this next one up on the screen. It also has a provision here that would skirt any authorization debate about the ongoing US operations in the Red Sea in a Rock and Syria by simply handing over two point four
billion dollars to cover those operations, no questions asked. So they wouldn't have to go to Congress for anything, wouldn't have to go, you know, even to ask for additional money to continue these illegal operations bombing three different countries. This would you know, tie that up with a bow as well. And by the way, kudos and great thanks to Michael Tracy for reading through the entire bill and pulling out these key provisions, which, of course we're not getting covered by the.
Mainstreat that's of we No, I didn't see a single everyone. Yeah, everyone's focusing on the border. Shit, sure we did too. We did a whole hour on it just this morning. But guess what, it's not the only thing that's going on in there. All of this is what the national security complex. This is their thing of wildest dreams, free money, no oversight. It's like the continuation of the Pentagon budgets.
And just think about it too, when you fund a foreign war, you may want to know what's actually going on inside of that war instead of issuing empty threats like Senator Schumer did in the beginning. Let's move on now to the discussion around AI. This is something crystal which, by the way, teas we answered a question in our AMA about UPS workers. There was a major story about
how UPS is laying off twelve thousand people. Now, many people were anti union picked that up and they're like, so you to fire a bunch of people after they negotiated.
Conflict but a contract.
Guess what, though, it turns out, let's put this up there on the screen that many incorrectly assumed this is going to affect delivery drivers.
No, no, no, no no.
It turns out that the larger group quote of white collar workers are being fired because UPS is now testing artificial intelligence and machine learning tools, ramping up its use of both across enterprise. This fits with larger firings that are happening all across the white collar market, most importantly in big tech. Let's go to the next one there, please, because what's very important is this question, why is big
tech still cutting jobs? As they flag in the New York Times, the economy is doing well, stock prices that are all time highs MetaStock just made records, all these others, So what's happening? Well, what they say is that instead of hiring thousands of people every quarter, the companies are now spending billions to build AI technology they believe could one day be worth trillions. Not only that they are not only investing in AI crystal there in many cases
are trying to replace as much as their workforce. The reason we're flagging this is that this is just totally counter narrative to the twenty tens discourse around AI and around machine learning. Everybody assumed the truck drivers would be first out of work. Oh, it's actually the truck drivers
are getting paid and still have their jobs. It's the white collar supply chain logistics guy who was directing routes from one place to the other, which was automated out of business in a matter of two years after the invention of this technology, which is stunning, and it's totally counter to the way that everybody expected the economy to go,
and it does show us. I think a white collar apocalypse is absolutely on their horizon, like a decimation of HR anything low level starting out things that are you know, Excel jockeys and all that stuff is going to be gone.
Yeah, it really is all that can be automated already, you know. I mean some of the harder things to automate, as like care work, you know, some of the manual labor that really requires the human touch. The whole delivery drone idea hasn't worked out, right, You still need the delivery drivers exactly. So it's ironic because it is the opposite of what people were originally thinking. They're originally thinking
that blue collar workers would be hit artist. I do think there's still some risk for truck drivers based on California and Texas and some of the you know, autonomous vehicle technology and the development of that, although it appears to still have some major issues, but they're still a push in that direction. But I do think that this
is really a harbinger of things to come. And in many ways, this so called apocalyp is already upon us, given the fact that you know, the tech companies, many of them struggled last year and revenue was down and there were mass layoffs. Many of these companies had massively staffed up, staffed up during the pandemic because of course, there was like a tech boom during the pandemic years.
They had way too many people on board than when you know, people went back to more normal behavior and there was a loss in their revenue.
They had to adjust.
Well.
Now revenues are back up.
Many of these companies are doing extraordinarily well, and yet the layoffs in some instances continue. And it's not because they can't afford to hire the people. It's because they would rather have a robot who you know, can't call them sick and doesn't have all the like human being issues and maybe faster ultimately depending on the task, and more efficient than the human being is. So they'd rather move and investing in that direction than investing in human capital.
Yeah, and it's interesting too to consider the layoffs. Let's go to the next part where we have a slide here which shows all of the companies that have had mass layoffs in twenty twenty four. You'll notice names like Salesforce, You'll notice like SAP, You'll notice a Vroom. A lot of technology companies are included that are on the list in addition to major retail. The reason that you're seeing names like Microsoft, TikTok, Google, you know, eBay and Sports
Illustrated Discord, Amazon, Pixar, NBC News. Almost all of that crystal can be traced back to either too big expansion during the pandemic or artificial intelligence. And I think AI, especially in big tech, is the number one story because it's not that they don't have the money. They're printing money more than ever before. There's stock prices, like I said, are at record highs. But they're investing specifically in technology which will replace their overall workforce, and they see it
as superfluous. You see the same thing actually in some of these news organizations, which is the same problem. And we'll probably do a story about this soon. The mass layoffs in the media industry are about one single thing, the collapse of the original click model. And the reason why that the BuzzFeed model and all that no longer pays is because of a fundamental change in advertising. But what you have seen too, what have those companies done.
They're investing in chat, gpt AI written articles because they realize having to pay salary HR and you know, all these other benefits for these human beings which can be you know, relatively easily changed, is one that they're going to make that trade every single day. So I think this is the biggest story in white collar work. And many people I think.
Have a lot of hubrisk. They're like, well, I got a college degree, you know, I can't be replaced. It's like, well, it turns out a lot of you can.
Yeah, And you know, you should really, if you're eighteen years old, I urge you to think about this.
The physical world is not going anywhere.
People will be needing to build things, repair things, HVAC, plumber, trade school and all that. And if you want to go to college, you better Dan will be starting something that cannot be automated out or make yourself indispensable somewhere.
And it's honestly difficult to predict.
It's very oft five years ago.
Now, yeah, that's exactly right.
So the other thing that I'll say is, if you know, it also shows why it's not just blue collar workers who need worker job protection and unions to be able to advocate for them and to try to prevent as much as possible the layoffs that we see white color workers obviously in need of that as well.
Okay, we have a great guest standing by Jeff Stine. Let's get to it.
Join us now to answer what in theory should be a simple question is actually a very politically fraught one of how is the economy actually doing? Is our friend watching post economics reporter Jeff Steine.
Great to see her.
Thank you guys before I jump in. Also plug your podcast about John Brown, which is fantastic.
If you guys like Dan Carlin, Long Storm History podcast, American Radicalism, check out American Carnage. Thank you everyone from Breaking Points who found the show and listened and subscribed.
Rating to subscribed by stars, Share with a friend.
Yes, it's fantastic, I really do.
And it's very irrelevant.
I mean history is always interesting, but relevant at current times as well.
All right, so let's put this up on the screen.
We had a big jobs report on Friday, some three hundred thousand plus three and fifty three thousand jobs added in January. Of course, the White House is saying we're back, baby. The economy is actually amazing. We're going to run on it. Americans less certain that they feel so great about the economy. You know, just give us a sense of how you analyze these numbers and what you think the overall picture of the economy is like.
Right at this moment, I think.
It's a little hard to describe the economy without running the risk of sounding like an MSMBA show.
We'll give us both sides.
Then, well, I think from the perspective of the White House, you've had two consecutive years of sub four percent unemployment, which is the lowest and the longest consecutive streak below four percent since the nineteen sixties. The job market continues to surpass out of any other major industrial country. You had a recent report with very strong wage gains outpacing inflation.
For over a year. Now.
You've seen the number of Americans working as a share of the labor force continue to be extremely strong. And yeah, I think that there's really no doubt at this point that the economists like Larry Summers, who were adamant that bringing down inflation would require millions or tens of millions of Americans to lose their jobs, that that was just fundamentally wrong.
Inflation has come from nine to three percent. It's not solved.
We can get into the rebuttle in the counter argument, but we have brought seen huge declines in inflation to the point where I don't want to get two into
the weeds. But this idea of core pc inflation, which sort of strips out like volatile measures and looks at like the underlying fundamentals of inflation, those numbers have come down sort of where they were in twenty nineteen, twenty eighteen, and that is huge at a time where the economy is adding jobs where payrolls are continuing to grow, where you're seeing increases in private and public sector employment, retail, white collar work, manufacturing up to above where it was
under Trump, healthcare.
All these sectors are growing really.
Fast, and it seems like the investments that the administration made in green energy and chips in infrastructure is beginning to really beove the economy in a very important way.
Should I get into the hut of the flip side, I think is.
The American public is still catching up to the pain of inflation, and that's probably the number one reason that people still don't give Bying a lot of credit, the hangover from inflation. You may have seen inflation go to three percent, but as you guys know, when you go from six to nine to three, you're still cumulatively way
up from where you were before. And so people don't necessarily measure things in the same time horizons that economist in Washington do, and that is to my mind, completely rational and completely understandable. You've also seen when the COVID safety net disappeared and the inflation raging at the exact same time the hardship indicators, and I think this doesn't get nearly enough attention in Washington that's so focused on
the labor market. But hunger, poverty, those kind of lack of insurance, the safety that has really frayed in important ways and ways that contradict the increase in wages that have outpaced inflation. And you've seen, i think, twenty twenty two according to Feeding America, the biggest food bank in America, they said that this last that twenty twenty two was the biggest spike in hunger in American history, forty four
percent increase in hungry kids. I mean, that is tremendous suffering at the bottom and lower middle class, and a lot of those people are not you know. You know, some people will say that, look, the middle is doing okay, but the bottom has done very well. And there's some indicators that wages at the very bottom have grown the most. But people who are making seventy sixty k a year, who have suffered and have not seen their wages on trend with where they were before before the pandemic, they
are still not like, you know, the rich people. And to say that that's like the privileged of America, I think is really misreading the current moments I filibuster for too long.
No, no, no, this is great because that's exactly what I wanted to get to, which is that you have a narrative about how the economy has gotten better, and on paper people are like, yeah, at least the White House and others, and if you're in the top twenty five percent or whatever, it's probably fair. But then you also have, as you said, in sticky inflation, inflation time horizon extends years. We don't measure prices in quarters. We think about the most of our lives for two percent inflation.
And then we have twenty percent inflation. You're like, what the hell happened?
So it's one of those where the experience of the economy is different now. At the same time, we do see things that are trending up in terms of consumer sentiment and others. So where what indicators can we look at for how peopleeople who are experiencing the economy feel about the economy going forward and how that's going to impact politics, Because I know the Biden White I was probably tracking that the most closely.
Yeah, I mean so, sentiment, like how people feel about the economy is at a three year high highest it's been since twenty twenty one, since before inflation, and that seems to be primarily driven by gas prices staying in the stock market being high. Yes, if you're asking, like, what is the last mile there for getting people to actually feel good about the economy. We looked at a survey recently that found that the number one reason that people still say that inflation is hurting them is at
the grocery store. That they still feel every time they go. And I don't know if you guys do your grocery shopping, but it just feels incredibly random to people where it's like, yeah, this thing that was like I remember in my you know, very recent memory, was like two dollars an hour at six, and then it goes down and then something else goes up.
I mean it's chicken. It's like seeing the price. I'm like, I cannot believe this.
Culture plain is actually were a huge thing that exploded even last year when grocery this overall plateau.
Guys puts C three up on the screen while Jeff is talking about this because he just had a piece at the Washington Post. The headline is inflation has fallen. Why are grocery still so expensive. So what did you find there.
Well, what the White House has been saying is that corporate profits continue to rise. We're seeing basically the producer price inducks not to get into the econ TALC, but the producer price INDECKS, which measures the input costs for firms, has fallen dramatically and that has not necessarily resulted in consumer prices.
So it's great claiming.
Sub Subsequently, and what the White House put out analysis saying is that corporate profits in this sector are at a twenty year high and remain two percentage points higher than they were before the pandemic.
And that's a lot of money. That's billions of dollars on the table.
Yeah, most economists I talked to will say that the overwhelming driver remains things related to climate change and supply chain's shock. So that's you know, everything from av and flu which killed like eighty million birds or something insane. Florida got ravaged by hurricanes, and you have like a crippling of citrus production. So there's all these like weird,
idiosyncratic things. But as long as natural disasters keeps striking different parts of the world in weird ways, you're gonna have these like weird price volatier volatility in grocery stores, and I think sager to get back to your point earlier about like how people view the economy. One thing that like economists who are more sympathetic to Biden will
say is that people externalize price hikes. They like view those as outside their control, and they internalize wage gains where they're like, I did that, I got that job because like, of course, people earn their raises and they feel like they should get credit for them, And I totally don't think that should be taken away from people.
But it's also understandable.
That people don't see that often the same factors that push up inflation are the same reasons that they're pay goes.
That's interesting, So they're not like Joe Biden gave me a raise, which is very understandable that.
It no, but it's also likes a it's a problem for like, as you guys know, there's this school of macroeconomic policy making that's like taking over the range of the Democratic Party that said we need massive kinsine stimulus, and if that leads to a political situation where people are mad because they don't see the inflation as their responsibility, and they see the wage gains as something they did that is an untenable answer politically to the next time we have a recession.
So some of the theories that I have seen of why Joe Biden. I think the latest poll had him at I think thirty six percent approval on the economy. It's still dramatically underwater on the economy. People give Donald Trump much higher marks on the economy in terms of his economic stewardship in spite of you know, the labor market and the low unemployment rate and the wage gains and even consumer sentence sentiment being at a multi year high.
Here are two theories that I've heard about why that's happening. One of them is it's the media's fault, like people are being tricked into thinking the economy is bad because of all the dumerism.
A lot of people are saying that.
And then the other one is that it actually is just another indicator of people are like this dude is too old, and I just don't really think he's capable of doing anything. I don't think he's capable of handling the economy. I don't think he's capable of handling foreign policy. I don't think he's capable of like doing a Super Bowl interview, and so the perception and I would say reality of him as this you know, very aged man is weighing even on his economic approval numbers.
I don't want to be too normative or didactically. I don't want to take too from a review because I think as a reporter we can like fairly evaluate these kinds of theories and other theories and give them, you know, respect, and treat people who are making these arguments, like take their argument seriously. But I think I've one of the few people who has like taken Americans that face value and understood and seeing good reason for some of the
things that they believe. Like we had the Sager was saying the fastest inflation in forty years, and then there's this question of like why are people upset like their wages were not keeping up with inflation at the worst level that we were seeing in decades. And your point, Crystal is like, well, if economic sentiment is up, then why isn't that leading to Biden's approval on the economy going up?
And someone could throw.
This back at my face in a few months, But I think with sentiment going up, we're going to see Biden's ratings on the economy also go up. It's still so recent, Like the increase in consumer sentiment is just a few months old, and it took a very long time for cooling inflation to lead to better sentiment. So it makes perfect sense to me that it will take time for better sentiment to lead to better economic ratings
for the president. If they don't, I don't think it's implausible to say, like maybe like they don't like this guy because he's so old, and that's it. You know, that seems like a plausible theory, the idea. I mean, maybe I've been too defensive about this, but what you're alluding to is, you know, there's Will Stancil and others
have said, like it's the faults of the media. You guys hate Biden and that's the reason people are just around the economy, and maybe like it's rational for me as a reporter to be like, I'm not responsible for that, but like, at the same time, like your argument is that the media would have been more friendly to Trump, Like if inflation had happened under Trump, right, we would have been I don't know, that is hard for me to countenance.
But I but some people argue it.
Yeahs, Actually that is a great point.
Yeah, excellent points. Jeff. It's always great talking to you man.
Everybody, go and subscribe to his John Brown podcast, and thank you so much for joining us.
Appreciate to see you, Jeff, Thanks so much, Gus.
All Right, guys, a stunning admission on Sunday TV this weekend when former Sentcom Commander General Frank McKenzie made this revelation about how the Israeli operation is going in Gaza.
Take a listen.
US intelligence estimates is really forces have killed about twenty to thirty percent of Hamas fighters since October.
That is far short of destroying Hamas. How did you judge the level of success of Israel's campaign.
It's very limited so far. I think they set themselves a goal of removing the political echelon and the military leadership echelon of Hamas when they went in. They have not been successful to date at doing either. And these campaigns are nonlinear, so they don't necessarily go from day to day. You could have a big breakthrough here and
things could change suddenly on the ground. But I think the larger issue, at least for me looking at it is you have to have a theory for what it's going to look like when it's over, what's going to happen in Gaza. And we've had some people that have talked about it earlier on the show today, and I think it's important to consider that you need a vision of an end state when you begin a military campaign, because everything you do then subtracts or adds to your
ability to get to that point. And I would argue that needs to be something like a two state solution, need help from the Arab nations in the region to go in there and do something in Gaza. I think Israeli occupation would be the least desirable of all outcomes.
So just think about that. What he's saying.
He says their success military success is quote very limited so far. This in spite of the fact that somewhere around thirty thousand Palestinians have been killed. The bombing campaign has been more devastating than historic devastating campaigns like dressed in a majority of buildings in all of Gaza have been damaged or destroyed.
And yet, in spite of all.
Of that, their actual stated objectives, which is I have talked about many times, do not appear to be the real objectives of the operation. But in terms of the stated objectives, the success has been quote very limited so far.
Yeah, it's really crazy, And in terms of the overall US military, we have some crazy new reporting from Ken Klippenstein in our own Ryan Graham, let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.
It appears crystal that the.
White House falsely said that it had warned the government of Iraq of impending air strikes. The reason that this is very important is number one, they lied, and they straight up said at the press conference that they had done it, and then only later on did they claim quote for operational security, we do not provide any official
pre notification with specific detail on these strikes. The reason why this is really important, beyond the fact that our government just straight up lies to us about whatever they bomb ri trees, is that many of this is part
of an even crazier political element to this. The groups which bombed and helped kill these Americans, many of them were officially part of the Iraqi government, and in fact, the Iraqi Prime Minister has been visiting militia members who were wounded in US hair strikes in the hospital, just to show you the level of convoluting here, because he has deep ties to Iran and the Iranian militias have run the country now for twenty some years, been an incredibly important aspect of that.
But it just gets to some of the craziness.
Right now, the Biden administration is engaged with the Iraqi government to keep our troops in the country. So at the very same moment that we're bombing said country and bombing elements of that country which have ties to that government, we're also trying to keep our troops in that country, all because of a war in God make.
It makes sense to me. It doesn't so somebody they know it makes sense, of.
Course, because when you explain it to people are like, what what are you talking about?
But they don't want you to know.
They don't want people to ask any questions about this. They just assume you can drop bombs on You know, there was a time when I was a child where we actually weren't bombing anybody. It was you know, it's interesting to consider it's only a very modern phenomenon where there's things just happen and people dine a far flowing place and.
You go what were they doing over there?
And then you go back to watching the Simpsons or whatever, and you just forget that it happened.
And the US government can't even really tell you why they're there or what they're doing. And considered, I mean not to go back to the Iraq War, but consider the utter failure of the know real goals of that war, which was in part to serve as a check on Iran, and now Iran is like basically running the country basically, So.
Great job on that one. Once again, guys, way to go.
You really did what you you know, meant to do and meant to accomplish there. And that's the part that just drives me insane is they know that there is no military solution to HMAS. They know that these strikes are not going to do a damn thing to deter these militias to keep our service members safe. They know
all of that, and yet they do it anyway. They know that the only way that tensions actually de escalate in the region and can return to some sense of normalcy and stability is through a ceasefire in Gaza, and yet instead they pursue this policy of just like sporadic bombing and you know, apparently lying to the American people about what they're doing and who they told about it.
Reuter's confirmed, you.
Can put this up on the screen that the US did not give pre notification to Iraq ahead of strikes. This reporter from Reuter says, hey, this is directly contradictory, contradicting what the White House said on record on Friday that the Biden administration did indeed notify the Iraqis ahead of time. And put the next one up on the screen as well, you know, to the point of they know that this isn't going to work, That is not going to deter anyone or keep any of our service
members safe. The Iran back groups have continued to target American bases as the US plans further strikes. And yet these are the same people Sagur who want to tell us that, oh, it hasn't spread into a wider war, it's still contained in Gaza. As we literally bomb and you know, take incoming in three different countries. It's just,
you know, it's absolutely preposterous. So US military official confirmed there were fatalities from an attack on the al Omar oil field, part of a complex that includes a US base and jointly controlled with the American military. Those casualties were not Americans, they were some allied militias that took that incoming and you know, suffered fatalities from these attacks. Syrian Democratic Forces US allied Kurdish militia said six of their fighters had died in that drone strike on al Omar.
So the bottom line is here, we've taken We've seen more than one hundred and sixty five attacks on American basis with rockets, missiles, drones or mortars since October seventh. As I've said one hundred times, the only time when these attacks stopped was when there was a ceasefire.
For six days.
When there was a ceasefire, these attacks stopped, and the hoo thies all but stopped what they were doing on the Red Sea as well.
It is plain as day what.
The correct strategy is here to protect our service members and to actually achieve de escalation in the region, and yet they refuse to actually pursue the policies that would lead in that direction.
Yeah, I mean, it's stunning whenever you read this, because it just shows that the what expansion is likely. Also, you know, increasingly we just we only unfortunately, we're only paying attention to people get killed, and obviously we should pay attention. But there are a lot of them, these service members who have been wounded, who have been suffered traumatic brain injuries. Also these Syrians, they were under our protection,
just so everybody knows. They were on an American air base and six of them died.
I mean, you.
Should think our troops are not that far away. It's probably a miracle that our people didn't get killed in that attack. And once no one can answer this question, why are they there in the first place? Why are they sitting ducks? The Iranians have the luxury of being able to move about the country as they please and go back to their country if they want to. Our people are sitting on the same base with no change in strategy, a government that is lying to their own people, and you know, even.
The troops there.
How could you have any confidence in the Biden administration right now after what's happening.
I cannot tell you how badly I feel for them to.
Just be sitting there, you know, without the support that you need, a populace which is basically distracted as to your plight, and of course as we said it all comes back to Gaza. At the same time, let's put this up there on the screen. Netanyahu's saying that the war in Gaza will not be over before the killing of Hamas leadership, quote unquote, stressing it will take another few months, So doubling down on the strategy Crystal and
really I think they're coming under intense military pressure. Maybe at home you can tell me if I'm wrong to try. They're like, hey, you said you're going to kill the mass leadership. You haven't killed a Moss leadership. You haven't you know? Yeah, what's his name?
Sinwar?
He remains inside these tunnels, surrounded by hostages, allegedly by the Israelis. It's like, well, if you know where he is, what are you going to do about it? And then it comes to the question of well, clearly you've been doing this now for what It's February sixth, so tomorrow is what the four month anniversary I believe of the attacks.
So it's a quarter of a year that we've had this happening, and you haven't been able to with the world's most advanced technology and a ground invasion all that, you haven't rescued a single hostage, So what are you going to do about it?
The hostage situation.
Now is almost certainly going to be resolved through maybe ceasfire negotiation. It remains up in the air as of today, Secretary Blincoln with MBS yesterday.
But that's all the progress that we have so far.
Yeah, And I mean, I think this cuts against the idea of a ceasefire being negotiated right now. As we covered yesterday, Netanyahu is under intense pressure from the far right Ben Gavern's motriges of his coalition who are throwing threatening to blow the whole thing up, blow up his entire governing coalition if he were to take some sort of deal of the type that Hamas would be willing to accept the more quote unquote moderate parts of his
coalition or the other side of that. So he is, you know, being pulled in both directions and outside of his own ideology, which has been very clear over time.
His number one interest is in his own political self preservation, which again cuts in the direction of you know, placating the right, keeping that coalition together, trying to keep the war going for as long as possible, and in lieu of achieving actual military success, bringing to the people these images of horror and destruction in an attempt to cover for the fact that the goals they claim to support of destroying Hamas are never going to be achieved, even
if they get sinwar ultimately, which may happen.
I don't know.
The actual goal of eradicating Hamas was always a fantasy from day one, something we've been talking about the entire time.
It's not difficult to predict.
Yeah, absolutely.
So.
At the same time, there was one other aspect of that Border Ukraine Israel bill that we wanted to dig into with regard to Israel, which is that the bill officially permanently cuts aid to UNRA, which is the primary humanitarian organization to the benefit of Palestinians, not just in Gaza and not even just in the West Bank, but the entire Palestinian diaspora around the region. Can put this up on the screen, it has the text of the bill.
So the commentary here is by partisan Border Israel Ukraine package blocks all funding for UNRA from the US, it's biggest donor.
Let me reach you.
The Texas says, none of the funds appropriate or otherwise made available by this division and Division B of this Act and prior acts blah blah blah may be made available for a contribution, grant, or other payment to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency otherwise known as UNRA, notwithstanding any other provision of law.
So you will recall.
That on the very day that the ICJ, relying in part on some of the testimony and some of the analysis of UNRA officials, when they've ruled that Israel may be plausibly committing genocide, on that very day, the US suddenly jumped to and said, oh, we received these quote unquote, highly credible allegations about a dozen UNRAH employees out of I think thirty thousand participating in October seventh, allegedly, and they described this as intelligence that they got from the
Israelis that was highly credible.
Okay.
So on the very day that the ICJ says we need to increase humanitarian aid to the Gaza population, which is literally starving to death, we the main backer of pull our funding, and that triggers a cascading effect where some thirteen other countries or something cut their funding as well, dramatically dealing a blow that will further starve and impoverish the Palestinian population in Gaza. So I actually was able to look at the allegations that were made by the Israelis.
Source sent me a copy of what has been passed around to various news outlets like the New York Times in the Wall Street Journal that they just and out run with. It is incredible to me, Like I didn't think I could be shocked by this saga, but it is actually incredible because it is literally just a evidence free list of allegations, literally like a list of names and this person did that, and that person did that, and they say, oh, it's based on identification cards and
other intelligence, but no actual evidence is provided. Now, maybe they did participate, and maybe they didn't. I can tell you there's definitely not enough that has been provided to say anything about this.
Again, zero evidence provided.
But second of all, these people have already been fired just based on the allegations, and so they are cutting they are collectively punishing the entire Palestinian population over evidence free allegations against a tiny handful of employees.
Of a large organization. Is truly stunning.
At the same time, a State Department spokesperson yesterday was pressed on the funding of UNRA and is using this text in the bill, which hasn't even been passed yet, in an attempt to justify their cutting of the aid to this vital humanitarian organization.
Let's take a listen to that.
Obviously, there is text in this pending legislation that would preclude us from doing so. We are an administration that follows the law. That being said, in this pending legislation, there is ten billion dollars for humanitarian sistence, of which one point four billion is for humanitarian aid for Gaza.
This is an issue we take very seriously. We also believe, even prior to this conversation about the supplemental we have, as I told Simon, been unambiguous in my opinion about the critical work that UNRA does, not just in Gaza, but in other parts of the region as well.
So amazingly he says, oh, we're an administration that follows the law, which by the way, is a complete lie. When it comes to Israel, they just do whatever they want, clearly, or when it comes to bombing random countries, they clearly do whatever they want.
They do not follow the law.
But also again, this bill hasn't even passed yet, and they're using it as some kind of cover to justify their unilateral decision based on zero evidence to cut funding to this agency.
Yeah, Chris, so after reviewing the dossier which you so graciously helped share with us, and that we can provide for everybody else, I don't want I just want to say, like, you're really not exaggerating. I will not read, you know, because there's some identifying details. But they literally just say, quote unquote was a Hamas operative he entered Israeli territory on seven ten and participated in actions.
That's it. I just read it direct quote. There's no like an Indian.
Photographs or here's the you know, cell phone in Literally nothing, I mean not even on the level of remember those supposed audio intercepts that were so laughably like fictitious that they would say nothing, it's just so and so did X. Baseless, no evidence, nothing. I truly am s donne by it, not because I don't put it past the Israeli government, and I guess I should, you know, shouldn't have any sort of expectation for our newisance outlets at this point.
But both the New York Times and Wall Street Journal just ran with this zero evidence. I mean, we're just you know, YouTubers, over here, podcasters, and we would never run with something that had no no basis whatsoever other than the Israeli government, says x y Z.
No, You're absolutely right. It doesn't fit that editorial standard
at all. And it just goes back to a question about like just straight up belief and also why you know, you have to really you have to evaluate what people are saying and you have to see like you can't just take their word for it just because you know, you may be friends with them or in the Wall Street Journals case, you may have once been a soldier for them, but it's one Yeah, I mean some interesting questions too about the people who are reporting this stuff
and about their own you know, some scrutiny in their own background, which look, you know, if you want to if you are from Israel or whatever, that's fine, but it should probably be disclosed, no, like in the report, if you're going to pass off something as exclusive and then in terms of the evidence, not provide any within that, especially when it has major humanitarian ramifications. And that's something that we can put a put the fourth element please
up on the screen. That was something that the head of the World Food Program who by the way, Cindy McCain, just to note in terms of her former like most pro Israel senator and human history.
Yeah, I also want to know what her conversations with their daughter alike the.
Yeah, I would be curious, she says, quote, no other entity currently has the capacity to deliver the scale and breadth of assistant the two point two million in Gaza urgently need. Withdrawing money from UNRA is perilous. We appeal for these decisions to be reconsidered. I found that interesting just because she technically is part of the Biden administration, was appointed by the President to the World Food Program.
So there does.
Seem to be I mean, maybe at least consternation amongst the people who actually work in the space, as opposed to people who are looking at this purely in political term.
Yeah, oh, that's probably what it is.
No doubt about it, No doubt about it. I just so you know, it's not just us saying that there's no evidence. Put this up on the screen from the Financial Times. This is a quote from them. Israel had not presented any evidence of its allegations to UNRA, adding the UN agency had been forced to respond to leaks in the media of an Israeli intelligence assessment that at least twelve of its Palaestiny employees had taken part in.
The Hamas rate.
These included one accused of kidnapping a woman and another said to have seized the body of a slain soldier. The intelligence assessment, which has been seen by the FPT, provides no evidence for the claims, which it says are based on smartphone intercepts and captured identity cards, but the US has said it found them highly highly credible. And then we have one more element that we can put up here from Owen Jones.
But breaking down a sky News.
Report, we were told originally there were twelve UNRA employees on a thirty thousand involved in October seven.
Now it's down to six.
And sky News reports that Israeli intelligence documents make several claims without proof, and many claims do not directly implicate UNRA.
Anyway, I can read a little bit of this sky News report.
They say that many of the claims have no evidence, has not seen proof of and many of the claims, even if true, do not directly implicate UNRA. The agency also never received any concerns about their staff members and they are required. UNRA is to share a list of their staff with Israel every single year, and Israel never raised any concerns about any of these staff members. In addition, it's worth noting UNRA, as they write in Sky News,
has paid a heavy price during the war. One hundred and fifty two of their staff have been killed in Gaza and one hundred and forty five of their facilities
have been damaged. It's important to keep in mind as we go through these claims against UNRA that Netanyahu and the right, but many other sectors of Israeli society have long had their sights set on the destruction of UNRA because they believe since UNRA their mission is to you know, serve they do schools and you know, aid and humanitarian assistance to Palestine refugees wherever they are, that they basically like keep the Palestinians from giving up on their claims
to any of the land. And so they've long wanted to destroy UNRA because they just disagree centrally with that mission and they think they sort of like keep the problem alive and keep Palestinians from ultimately giving up. So that's also the context for these claims that are being made.
The context is important because NRA's largely I mean, in general, you know, the Israel. What is smart is that you want to attack anybody who is counter narrative and showing people what you're doing, so that you don't have a complete monopoly on information from the situation, and you don't have a monopoly on media coverage, et cetera. So you attack the people and the credibility of those who are
against you. RA has been a major person, a major party, which has been very counter to many of these really claims about civilian casualties, et cetera.
So what do you do? You go after them.
But overall, what I would really say is that this is the bigger media story to me, because the US government clearly did not do any due diligence that was based on this. They provided no evidence, and it's up to the media, well, Street journal and others. I already see a Ben Shapiro out there being like it is full of terrorists and also the things, as you said, you know, we're not going to sit here and be like it's not possible.
It's certainly possible. You just need evidence.
Whenever you're going to support a claim which also has a secondary organization with an aim that is overall humanitarian and clearly is undermining a strategic level the Israeli government.
So we should just treat that with skeptic.
To me, this is a massive media story that the fact that the US press and you know why is the Look, it's not like the British aren't pro Israel.
Why is their press.
Just willing to employ basic journalistic standards? The ft great paper is just like, yeah, I don't see it. Channel four, same thing.
Listen.
They're not liberal by any means. They're just like, I don't see the evidence here. This is the dossier. It wasn't that hard, Crystal, like you said, for us to get our hands on it and just look at it and be.
Like literally paid long. There's nothing provided with if it.
Look, when I was a political White House journalist, I was provided with these fake dossiers all the time. I never printed them once, you know ever, because I was like, this is just propaganda and you have to check it. You just have to be like, okay said this. So you call the guy and you're like, hey, is this what actually happened?
And nine out of ten times.
We're like no, that's a total misrepresentation about what is happening.
Well, and it's not like UNRA, I mean, really kind of unfairly given that no evidence was provided, but they just immediately fired these people because of the gravity. Maybe it was right even the alligations. So it's also like, what do you even want them to do? And the Israeli government also, they said, hasn't shared with them any of the purported evidence, so they've already fought fired the people.
The un has undertaken an investigation to see if there's any there there, they've already said if there's grounds for prosecution, they will be prosecuted.
So it's also like what else do you want them to do?
And why does it make sense to collectively punish not just this entire organization, but the entirety of the Palestinian people on the alleged actions evidence free allegations, but alleged actions of six UNRUH employees or a dozen unru employees or whatever it's.
It really is outrageous.
And the last thing I'll say about the time, because the timing is so critical here that it came on the same day as the ICJ ruling applausible genocide. It's also punishment for the fact that unrun analysts and employees and staff members were quoted and were used in order to achieve that plausible genocide ruling. So there's also a you know, a direct line between the fact that they were quoted in the report in the ruling and that they were attacked on that very day. Like, I don't
think that those two things are a coincidence. I think it's direct retaliation for the fact that they were cited at all in the judges ruling there at the I CJ.
You're very likely correct. All right, guys, we had a great show today. Thank you so much for supporting us. We had that rfkjun your focus group. As we mentioned, we'll have a great counterpoint show for everyone tomorrow, hopefully Crystallized throats say a little.
They're rough here.
I'm not gonna lie, I need needed need a break here. I'm gonna let Emily speak.
Thanks. Yeah, thanks for bearing with us, guys. We're trying.
As you can see, we do work through sickness.
So as you can see here over breaking points and we'll have a great show for everybody on Thursday.