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If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Hello everybody, Happy election day. It's Tuesday, it's here, it's the morning. It's time for the update. All four of us are in the house, I guess in our respective houses. We will be in our studio as a reminder, two thousand what is it? We will be doing the live stream at six thirty pm Eastern time, all four of us at the desk, and we will.
Go as long as we need to go.
We're really excited for it, and we thought we just what is it, Crystal. We've got tea leaves leaves.
Yeah, all the two. So you have a few votes cast in Dick Much, New Hampshire. This is like you know every time election traditions. So we'll give you those results. You can way overanalyze them as people always do. Yeah, we have the very last of like the predictions like the official you know, Nate Silver, John Ralston, Larry Sabato, So break that down for You've got a little glimpse in the final rallies and a big endorsement on the Trump side, Joe Rogan making it official that he is
endorsing Donald Trump. So bring all that to you also, because basically spoiler alert, all of these predictions, like the fancy models just came down to like, eh, go either way, I don't know. So we thought we would also take a look at some of the dumber ways that people do election predictions, some of the like traditions, superstictions, things like which Halloween mask sells more, what this viral hippo
did with the cake, all these sorts of things. So we'll dig into those tea leaves like a real tea leaves as well, and also things that are equally scientific like Alan Lichtman's keys. Yes, so we can all make of that what we will.
Yeah, it's exciting.
As a reminder to everybody, six thirty pm, like I said, we'll be live, go ahead and sign out Breakingpoints dot com. You will want to do that because we'll also be taking questions from our subscribers during the stream.
But yeah, what's first on deck? Crystal? What do you well?
I want to pull out Dixville Notch, but really quick before I do that, Emily and Ryan, you guys we made you give us predictions like last week, and there's been a bunch of new poles and whatever the drop since then, any any revisions while I'm getting the Dixville Notch votes pulled up here, it.
Would be smart to make revisions because then, no matter what happens one of the.
That's true, giving you that opportunity. That's like file he made three different maps. I was like, that's yeah, that's that's.
Not fair, that's smart. No, that's very smart. Ridiculous.
Yeah, one of my maps has Trump winning and one has Kamala winning.
Come on.
Right, thanks Silver, Yeah, how about you? Amy?
And that's basically it's a cop out.
But it's like when you look at the you go to do the maps, as we've all done, and you're calling certain states and then you're looking at where the polling averages are in those states and you're just like, this is insane. I mean, it could with what you guys have been talking about a lot in terms of not knowing the direction of the polling era, like we
don't even have a good sense. In twenty twenty, it was like, well, they might be under estimating Trump, Like if I had to guess the polls, l still underestimate Trump.
Do not have that this time around at all.
So that's where you get these two different versions of the map where you can have like a Kammalo sweep or a Trump sweep, or you can have something like what Sager predicted, which is sort of what I'm leaning towards right now.
Which is a really really close electoral college battle.
Because it's split, the results end up being as split as they seemed like they would.
Yeah, I mean, it's kind of funny because everybody knows the Poles are wrong, like the Poles are, the Polsters are definitely just like hurting, it's a tie. I don't know what's to tell you, but we have no idea what direction they're.
Wrong, which means there's a strong chance that we could expect to not know until like Friday or something, but might actually know tonight. Like that there's a strong chance we actually are shocked and are like, oh wow, this this thing's over.
Well the leam and we're like, oh, we actually know what happened.
I think just to prepare for people like if Kamala right, because the polls close in Georgia at seven and then North Carolina seven thirty, and then Pennsylvania at eight.
If the polls close.
In Georgia and North Carolina and you can call, we will reminder, will have decision desk. If Decision desk can call those two states, you know, almost immediately and then maybe put a trajectory for her in Pennsylvania. I'm not going to say it's over, but you know, the math
becomes very difficult for Trump. Similarly, you know, if Trump has big strength in Georgia and in North Carolina, which were two tiede states, and then shows a lot of potential going into the wee hours of like one or two am, they call PA at two am in twenty sixteen, although everything I've read says it may take a little bit longer. Pennsylvania election workers are not allowed to count ballots until actually is it the start of polls, like or on election day or whatever, so processing can take
a little while. But there is a strong chance we're gonna know a lot, you know tonight.
Yeah, I think so. I mean even last time when it came down to the wire, we really did go to bed pretty much knowing, Yeah, that's right, the way things were. We know, yeah, we knew all right. So here we go the much anticipated Dixville Notch presidential results. And guess what, guys, is a tie? Yeah, Paris three Trump three. Now, if you are a Democrat, you may look at this and go Dixville Notch haz zero registered Democrats. This is four Republicans and two independents. So we're already
picking up those Nicky Haley voters. And all six of these people voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. If you're a Republican, you look at these and go, Joe Biden swept. Yeah, take five h last time around. So you know, really choose your own adventure with this particular one. So make of it what you will, and I recommend you make nothing of it. Yeah, let me go and show you John Ralston's predictions. Now this made quite a bit of waves. I'm curious, in particular, what
Emily and Zager have thought about this. So Ralston is, you know, the guru of early vote in Nevada. His presidential prediction record is actually perfect since he started making
these predictions. And the TLDR here is that after he looked at the early vote and what male ballots he thinks are still outstanding, and his historical experience with the effectiveness of the Harry Reid machine, he is very narrowly predicting a Harris victory forty eight point five percent to Trump's forty eight point two percent, which is like a
preposterously narrow margin. But you know, part of what was consequential about this is that the Republicans really felt like this was the place where the early vote numbers were most clearly in their favor, and so I think, you know, there was an expectation that he was probably going to call it for Trump, and instead he narrowly goes for Kamala.
Yeah, I mean, well, you know, by his own admission, he's got Kamala there by point three. It's also so funny if you read the analysis, He's basically like, yeah, Trump is up, but I'm just gonna guess that the Red machine knows exactly how many votes that they need to be postmarked by election day. And I've never bet against the red machine and the read machine will turn those folks out, which is kind of a hilarious, almost like mafioso style analysis of the state. But he's not wrong.
I mean, you know, he's called it correctly every single time. He has a perfect record. But he did, of course leave himself there where if he is wrong, like let's say Trump wins byo point six, well, you know he's got a decent out so last time around, you know, regardless, it does show a much closer election. Joe Biden got fifty percent of the vote donald Trump at forty seven
point six, so narrowing the gap there three. I took a little bit hard in this, even though he did predict a Kamala win, just because this would verify a lot of the Sun Belt strength for Donald Trump that I had included in my map, including with the Latino vote.
So I'm interested to see, you know, which way it goes, because even if he is predicting such a narrow result, that actually would be a sign of strength for the tightness of the polling, particularly in those states Nevada and Arizona, and not necessarily a large miss.
So that was just my general read of it.
And from my perciective. If Ralston does have a bias, it's too much confidence in the read machine. And so
I've covered Harry Reid for so long. I've also known and interacted with and had a lot of respect for Ralston for like twenty years now or something, and covering Harry Reid, you do get this sense of like, Wow, this is an old school machine that like actually knows how to do machine politics, and so you can't the questions do you get carried away with your faith in it after Harry Reid has died, Like we don't know
yet like the strength of this machine. So if he's wrong, and that from the grave Harry Reid is not able to run this machine as effectively as he was, you know, from the earth, then that could make up the couple of points that you're talking about.
I'm also sort of curious about I think Republicans getting really excited about having you know, more registered Republicans turning out in some states where they've been working really hard. I mean, if you Ryan was at a Trump rally just last night, like they have the I don't know if they're still doing it, but a month ago, you know, they were doing swamp the vote too big to rig.
They were pushing it really hard, and you know, part of.
Me wonders if what we're seeing is just really high early voting from suburban women. So Republicans are getting excited about more registered Republican women returning their ballots early, or in areas where they expect to do well returning their ballots early. And actually it was a lot of women who weren't voting for Trump but are registered Republicans. So I don't know, like if that's the case, but I am curious about that.
If Anne Selzer is even directionally correct, there is some of that going on, because she found Kamala winning something like ten percent of republic That would be the theoretical sort of like Nikki Haley voter. And the other thing that is different in Nevada this year versus other years is that they passed a law that automatically registers anyone who you know, goes the DMB gets a driver's license, and the default is that you're just registered, you know,
non affiliated. And so Democrats believe a lot of those voters, because they tend to be younger, are their voters. And that's part of what factored into his analysis here too. But yeah, I mean he talks about how this was, you know, maybe the hardest election for him to be able to predict. So I don't think anyone would be surprised if it comes in significantly differently from this. All right, let me show you this next prediction. This is the
Larry Sabateaux crystal ball no relation prediction. And again this is another I mean, he has it narrowly in favor of Kamala Harris. Basically, this is kind of like, you know, before these campaigns really started and got into full effect, this is kind of what you would predict the map would be. She holds the blue Wall, she holds Nevada where they've been consistently winning, and Trump takes everything else.
And there you go. It's you know, it's narrow, but it's enough for her to be able to pull out a win. You guys have any any thoughts or reactions to this one.
I think it's a very possible map.
I was at around this map for a while and the real reason I bet against it with Pa and with North Carolina was some different demographic reasons, but for specifically, what this really is is a bet on you know, narrow victory in Nevada and then white over performance with seniors and with college educated voters across the Blue Wall states while losing the sun Belt. And I think it's a highly logical map. It's a bet that I would not feel uncomfortable taking in a scenario for a Harris win.
It's also one which was their most plausible path to victory. I listened to an interview that David Pluff, who was the Obama two thousand and eight campaign manager, gave on CNN, and he got pretty specific. He was basically like, look, we believe this is going to be a razor tight election. We are trying to operate in a sense where there is no polling error and we could still be able to drive things out. And we see a scenario where any of the states that we win will be by
point six point eight or any of that. So that's basically a bet where a Kamala victory. And if you know, in that point eight marginal victory scenario, this is what a kamal Of victory would most likely look like with no major polling error. A polling error in either direction would just be read across the board for all of them.
Ryan was this your mount basically.
More or less.
I think I had Nevada going to Trump.
Yeah, so you added actually two seventy two sixty eight right, like as narrow as possible. Yep, got it all right. Let's take a look at NAT's silver it's very ying.
Yeah.
Yeah, it says we ran eighty thousand simulations tonight, Harris one in forty thousand and twelve.
So, I mean his problem is if it's garbage in, garbage out, is that's what the simulations are going to produce.
That's my thing is, like he has been arguing correctly and vociferously online for like these polsters are basically just making stuff up. And it's not just the recall to twenty twenty thing. He was in this whole fight with this economist Justin Wolfers, who was like, they're taking low quality surveys, then they look at what the average is
and they rig the results to match that average. But it's like, if you think that's true, then how can you justify feeding this into your model and pretending like you're getting anything approxy? You're gonna get the same, Like it's fifty to fifty. It's tied that these posters are giving so that's you know, that's the part of this is questions, what else is he supposed to do?
I was gonna say, you go to war with the troops he have. I mean, it's just like what else can you do? Like there's no other option? Like he's got a decent I mean, he does attempt at scoring like a lot of those hurting ones, I think they get scored less inside. But at a certain point, you know, we only have a few people who are out there doing high quality surveys who are not doing recall to vote.
And or not hurting.
And even then, you know, there's a big question mark in that last New York Times Siena pol like they had it, they basically said jump ball in all of the blue wall states, where you do have to ask was that just a hurting thing because they don't want
to deal with the blowback. You know, in a scenario where Donald Trump overperforms by four or five points or Harris over performs by four or five there's also just you know, like the more meta questions that we always have to confront about overresponse bias, about the makeup of the electorate, people who literally are like an entire generation now with no landline. How are they even contactable? So this will look the country changes a lot.
You know, this is partly a monster of his own making because of the Polster rating that you're talking about. It's based on how close they were the actual results, which incentivizes you know, if you say it's fifty to fifty, then you're not going to be too far off any direction. And so partly the you know, I don't they didn't intend to do this, but that was partly the impact. So you know, that's why I look, yeah, it's good that he's out there arguing, like, look, all these polsters
are just basically making things up. They're hurting. It would be one in nine trillion chance literally that they would be getting the results that they are. But then I think you have to factor in more humility to your own model at the end of the day, if you know that the data that's going in is basically fictional, right, in other words, vindication for Alan Lichtman and his keys right as to the keys dang yeah, also for Mudang yeah.
I'll get to moodang yeah.
And I got into like a famous or infamous argument with Nate silver back in twenty sixteen, and I ended up looking like a fool. But the actual point that I was trying to make is is this one right here.
What I said is that, look, all of the polling models are saying that Hillary Clinton has a like ninety plus percent chance of winning, and in the last week, he was artificially pushing his number down to try to hedge for a Trump win because he felt in his gut that there was a chance that Trump might actually win. And I said in the piece, I feel like that's true too, that it seems absurd to say that there's
a ninety plus percent chance that he's gonna win. But you're a polling model guy, Like, you're not a pundit. Your job is to follow your own polling model. If you don't want to do that, then go be a pundit and say this seems silly. But you can't kind of have it both ways. And so I think you're right that it's a problem of his own creation, Like he has created this idea that you can put these numbers into this machine and it's gonna spit out for
you results. But then as as human beings, we look at those results and we're like, this doesn't look right. So then what was the whole point of the machine to be given was fair?
That was my point.
I think that's totally fair, and it does get to the whole idea of this is all human in terms like there's no sign, there is no science, you know, behind prediction. All of it comes down to human assumptions. And by the way, keep us in mind for AI and for any large like data machine or for anything, this is the case for the assumptions that are programmed into these models are what determine the model itself. And that's why people have heard here a lot about it.
I actually think it's very vindicating where a lot of people just have a lot more humility around these things and just really, yeah, nobody knows anything, and that's actually fine, It's okay.
I mean, the truth of the matter is that as much as Nate Silver and Alan Lichtman and his keys like fought back and forth, they're actually not doing anything different from one another.
Yeah, they're both.
Just let you know, they have their own ideas about how to bake in the assumptions and what are the keys to the election. And you know, if you go into Name's opera, he has things like you know, the fundamentals and what's the economy and whatever? Those are all just your assumptions about how those things play into the election. And then because you have this illusion of feeding it into an impartial machine, you come out with what appears
like a more scientific result. You're not actually doing anything different than Alan Lichtmann is when it comes down to it, And at least with Lichman, he puts his thumb on that. He says it's gonna be Kamala Harris. You can check whether he got a write or not. In the end, where is Nate Silver? Whichever way it goes, you can be like I told you it was fifty to fifty. You could go either way.
Right.
That's funny, all right, So let's go ahead and get to the big news yesterday evening, which is that Joe Rogan Oh Moodang lined up next though it's XV famous, which is that Joe Rogan did He had Elon Musk on his podcast and then he came out and tweeted this official endorsement of Trump. Now he had had Trump on the podcast, then he had jad Vans on, and then he had Elon Musk on. Of course, Trump's biggest backer,
and he says the great and powerful Elon Musk. If it wasn't for him, we'd be f't He makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump, you'll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way. For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump. Enjoy the podcast, Emily, let me hear from you on You know,
what do you make of this endorsement? And you know Rogan's evolution to this position, because we've tracked some of his you know, he's previously back Bertie Sanders, his very left wing positions that he took at some point in the past. But he's clearly made a transition into both his audience and himself being more you know, solidly in the pro Trump right wing space. So what do you make of the significance both from a Rogan evolution and a political electoral impact.
Yeah, well, I mean Republicans just on the electoral front desperately desperately need to get low propensity young male voters to turn out, so they're interpreting this as a major gift. Now will it actually be a major gift? I don't know that a bunch of people are going to turn out to the polls because Joe Rogan literally on the eve of the election, as people had already had their plans in place for the next day and all that
good stuff, made his endorsement. But everything is marginal this election, so I guess Republicans maybe are clinging to that as some just something that can get young male voters actually to the polls, because they're doing better than Republicans have in I think decades with young male voters under this Trump run, so they really I mean, that's the worst demographic basically to be doing well with because it's just the lowest turnout slice of the electorate. So maybe this
is motivating and animating on that front. On the second question, it's really wild to see the changes in the MAGA movement post twenty twenty because, and I know we've all talked about this before. What's happened is a lot of Silicon Valley guys have sort of stepped into the ring
and become MAGA. And I don't think this changes Joe Rogan's and you guys would know better, but from my perspective, it's not a lot of people are going to be tempted to see this as mutually exclude with the Bernie ism, but there were a lot of voters that kind of had both in their heads too, back in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, like.
The Trump stuff and the Bernie stuff.
And it might not be that Joe Rogan is like fully anti establishment or is fully non anti establishment, that now he's pro billionaire, pro Trump, pro all of that. He just sees it as the best shot at breaking up what the kind of swamp has come to signify
and represent. So that is a totally arguable point. But I think just trying to parse his argument on behalf of Trump, it's sort of similar to some other people's Fundamentally, it's like it's still seen as the best anti establishment candidate to explode everything in DC.
So that's sort of an initial reaction.
Yeah, I mostly agree with that. I mean, I think it's I mean, look, it's kind of interesting to see it in different directions.
In a lot of ways.
Joe is actually following the trend you know, in the podcast demographic. It's not a secret the podcast demographic has been trending right wing for like what three years, maybe four years?
Honestly, I think of it, and I think you.
Tweeted something about pop culture, and I think it's a really interesting view into the bifurcated way that we experience pop culture in twenty twenty four, where you have like Internet celebrities, Joe kind of being the king of that, the person the driver, the new Oprah quote unquote, you know, for the non mainstream, but then you also have literally Oprah on the same night, you know, giving a speech in favor of Kamala Harris. You have Hollywood the celebrity kind of establishment.
Quote unquote on that side.
And then I would also say that, you know, amongst the Internet celebrities, I don't think it's a secret, you know, looking around. If you look at the top twenty you know shows or whatever on Apple podcasts, probably eighteen out of twenty of them are going to be directionally right wing. So that does tell you something about the audience and about the space in which that that is both permissible and for a lot of reasons.
I actually think it makes.
Perfect sense because you know, in general, outside of Fox News, like being quote unquote right wing is not really acceptable or possible, and so you start your own thing on the Internet. That's also where you can have like literally the ability to congregate without a gatekeeper, which is predominantly more friendly to the establishment left. And so Joe has
been now a part of this for several years. If you track his like ideological evolution, I don't think it's all that like surprising if you look at the politicians people like he likes, like Tulsey Gabbard and others. Who is now literally a Republican calls She's like, I became a Republican campaigning for Donald Trump for RFK Junior, who has now endorsed Donald Trump and is urging people to vote for him. So this is like an ideological valance which has been present there for quite a long time.
And if anything, he's very late to it because, like you said, Emily, you know twenty I mean when did it drop? Yeah, eight forty five pm last night. So it's not like this is going to be top of mind for people who are organizing or anything. It's an in seeing cultural like demarcation point to me, because it is just like the final apotheosis of what I think
a lot of the podcast audience, demographic, et cetera. It all began with Dave Portnoy in twenty fifteen, and secular conservatism kind of crowns itself here today with a Rogan endorsement.
Can I just say, like, I don't think this is durable beyond Trump, Like that's another thing.
I mean, solutely yes, sobsolutely.
About that, because I think it depends. I mean, Rogan loved JD Vance.
But that was the JD talking about trans that was not fantas right. But that's JD talking about trans, not JD talking about abortion.
And that's where things got a little bit testy.
Like I don't know, I mean, I just like Joe's top issues that he talks the most about are like anti wokeism and trans stuff and immigration and immigration and like that being anti vax which there was a funny part of a conversation with you one where they're talking about that. It's like Trump is the person who did Operation Warp speed and coke but whatever, Like I understand all of that is right when godd but it's just a funny, funny note. So I don't think I really
agree with that, because I do. I think he and you know, most of the people in that ecosystem, like they just have pretty conventional Republican views at this point, I don't.
Think so, Like here, why did he like Ron DeSantis, covid.
An and covid whoa right, but it likes Jad because I don't know, like because he can And these are all very different, like sort of ideological flavors within the Republican movement. So I you know, yeah, I think that these fears are just like they're just a Republican.
But I don't see.
That's that's why I would disagree. For example, put Ron Johnson on there. You think Joe is gonna like him? I don't think so.
Or what Ron Johnson's not running for president certainly.
But whoever.
I mean, But this is this is kind of like the big thing that goes into this is a concern vatism quote unquote or Republican party which can appeal to the secular, you know, kind of libertarian mail is mutually exclusive from a conservatism of Mitch McConnell, Ron Johnson or any of these other folks. I think it's quite clear
what is one out under Donald Trump. But the big question is if Donald Trump goes down, right, if Trump goes down tomorrow or today at the ballot box, then there's going to be a big fight and.
A lot of a lot of the strategy will get blamed here.
I mean, policy wise, I just don't see Trump as being really different from the Mitch McConnell's of the world or whatever. Right, I think you're running around and talking about cutting two trillion dollars from the government. He wants to put Mike Pompeio back in the cabinet. Like I just there's a stylistic difference.
Sure, that's a key point though, but I think what I think what you're missing is that though so the real we all see that the realignment is happening between the two parties, and one thing that that realignment is going to bring is it's going to turn the Republican Party into a part into a coalition party, way that the Democratic Party previously, you know, for the last forty years or more, has been this party of coalitions, where the Republican Party was more of kind of a uniform
party that had people who had the same interest same genders, same well not same gender, but same race.
As many instances, yes now.
Now and right increasingly so, and so now the Republicans are going to it's going to be a confusing process for them because they're like, wait a minute, we don't all actually agree on all of these things, yet we're all part of the same coalition. And so how does the Rogan kind of faction of the coalition fit in with the kind of evangelical faction of the coalition which
agrees on some things but disagrees on others. And that's so, but doesn't mean you can't put together a party in a two party system.
Yeah, the entire the tent that holds the GOP together is hating the left and specifically hating ideological like leftism in all of its forms. That's the only thing that unites a Tulsa Gabbard and what like Tom Cotton right. And so that's the key of the Rogan podcast. You know, male demographic is that they hate the left and they hate the higher institutions of culture and they're really going to give a shit. And Crystal, I don't disagree with you when you're talking about the policy.
No matter who is at the head of the Republican Party, that's still going to be the case.
Maybe I'm seeing again if a Trump goes.
Down not going out of style anytime soon.
I can only say inshallah to what you just said, Crystal, But I do worry that if you know, like, for example, I think that if Trump goes down big, let's say a Harris Landslide, a lot of this podcast bro energy, like no Republican is going to be courting shit like that. Ever, again, they're going to have to take big lessons away from suburban win.
If anything, you're going to see opposite.
You're going to see a lot of these people going on the View and going on Oprah trying to like beg these ladies to come back and to vote for them.
I mean.
But the other side is so that Trump does win big, then you are going to see a lot more of you know, you've had John Fetterman go on the podcast with Joe. I think you will see you know, Pete Boudage, Edger, whoever you know, didn't Boodo Jet just go on what you call it Jubilee right like he knows what time it is.
He's a smart guy.
He can he can see where the trend is going the future primary. You will have the Gavin Newsom's and all these other people go on Joe. I actually think Gavin would do an incredible job on Joe Rogan, which is crazy thing to say because I know that Joe hates him, but he's a masterful, skilled wordsmith politician, and so this is, uh, I'm curious to see how it shakes out, entirely dependent on the result of what happens and where things go.
I was gonna just quickly say on the pop culture point this, it's not silly to remember that the days of like Sea Pack people like freaking out because they
had celebrities. And by celebrities, I mean Kid Rock. I'm sorry, I mean Ted Nugent and right, Kid Rock's a bona fide celebrity, but I mean like washed up Ted Nugent and Kelsey Grammer or something like that, right, And so it's just looking back to twenty sixteen and looking now, it's everything is shattered, like it feels this is though, Uh, the all we have like monoculture.
I think we all know this is completely shattering.
And what that's meant is more mainstream people like more people in the quote unquote mainstream because the mainstream is just bigger, and that has meant some inroads for Republicans with popular in popular popular culture. But does that translate outside of Trump and JD. Vance as Trump's running mate. I don't know, maybe it does.
I think it was a kind of interesting conversation.
My point is just like, I don't think that the whether politicians this election will really be a verdict if in the near term Republican politicians once again kind of bet the farm on the bro s fear podcast world.
That's right.
I do not think the brose fear podcast world is going back to being like dem or lib curious. I think that's definitely not Like that's what I'm saying. They're
they're republic like, they're just Republicans now. Their views fit very neatly into the broader Republican like coalition, and I don't I don't see that changing, Like I to me, the Rogan endorsement is like the final you know, it's like the crown jewel of Trump's bro podcast strategy coming on the night before the election, and you know, and so it will be the election will in some ways be a real verdict on how ultimately consequential that strategy was.
Absolutely maybe this is one of the reasons I'm laying the groundwork for if there's a big Trump loss. Is a lot of it, and people should remember this. Look like anti establishment is not always loved by people who like the establishment. In fact, there's a lot of women and people out there who if you ever showed them, you know, a comedy set of Andrew Schultz or a Theo von or of a Rogan or any others Day or Tony Hinchcliff, they would really hate it. And so
that's a question too about who those people are. The people who love Oprah or The View or the Today Show or Good Morning America, those people vote, you know, possibly just as much.
So it was a big risk.
I mean, it was a titanic risk really to be the bet the farm on this. But again the question too is you're not wrong, Crystal that they'll be Republicans. But there's also an energy level to this, like for example, Kumaru Usman, who is one of the greatest fighters in the UFC, came out and endorsed Donald Trump.
I just don't.
Really see him ever doing that for Glenn Youngkin or maybe even honestly like a jd Vance like yeah, or Jake Paul or Logan Paul or I mean, I'm trying to think all the bodybuilders you know that I follow on Instagram. Trump is a deeply unique cultural figure in a way that is like like psychologically very different than a lot of these other folks. Dana White, you know, look at him, and his friendship with Donald Trump was a huge engine, you know, behind a.
Lot of this.
In fact, if it does work out, Dana will be probably more responsible for this than anyone else him, his friendship with Donald Trump Junior and his ability you know, you know, Joe even said on his podcast with Trump the number one reason he's doing this because of Dana White. Well, Dana White go to bat for traditional or even like whatever comes next after Trump. I'm not so sure, to be honest, I don't.
Really think so.
And so that's why Trump is just such He's so so unique in his ability. So will they always be right wing? Will they always hate the left? Absolutely? But will they be as galvanized as united you know, around Trump? I don't think so, not in the current way.
Well we'll see. I just these guys loved Ron DeSantis five seconds ago. Yeah, yes, So it's not like there was aren't other Republican figures out there that they're also really excited about. It's just my point.
But Santas also, let's be honest, the guy kind of sucks, right, So it's like when you get reality Santas, like what it is compared to Trump.
That's a whole other ballgame.
One other point that might be obvious, but I think worth making before we move on. And I have a section of this in my book on the Squad about the moment when Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in that weird interview with Barry Weiss. Yeah, I'm voting for me. He's been consistent, he's and like lays out like the reason
he loves Bernie Sanders. The reaction from the Democratic Party kind of set a course that we're on today, Like that was a moment of agency where a different kind of party, in a different moment, less kind of consumed by identity politics at the time, could have embraced Joe Rogan and his entire coalition at that time and said, we don't agree with everything that Rogan believes, but he agrees with us eighty percent of the time. So we're bringing him in and we're going to build a coalition here.
And if you even have half the bros fear like the Democrats are, you know, have an extra couple point advantage long term, the long term trajectory of losing young men, you know, it's going to add up over the years, and it all goes back to this deeply emotional moment. You know, Rogan said, I'm never getting involved in politics again. Like I think a lot of his like hostility towards wokeism was ramped up in that moment and still fuels his politics today.
And then Gasoline Port on that by Covid.
I don't disagree. I think that's totally right. I'm not so much. I don't know if there was much you could do about it, to be honest, because we're talking about like way bigger cultural figure or like way bigger cultural shifts that have happened in the higher like commanding heights of culture than just Rogan or not.
You knows, that's why I met.
That's why I met in terms of he's following the trend right by coming in this late like everyone else is just pro Trump, like Patrick, Bette, David and all these other these guys have built massive channels they I mean think about it, like in terms of how big they are relative to even four years ago, of how
gigantic the trend has come. So you know, that's why it makes sense logically to me, because the mill you the Rogan is swimming in of UFC and all these these people have been wearing MAGA hats for three years. It's sometime ten years, you know, in case of like Dana White. So I don't know. I'm not so sure that there was anything to be done about this. I think way more of it has to do with just mainstream media, with the broader like culture and with everything.
So yeah, I don't know. Clearly, we have a lot to say about it.
Yeah, and this will be I think this will be one of the conversations that will continue, you know, kind of will be shaped by what happens tonight for sure, when we see how successful this strategy ends up being. I can just show you guys if you want. I've got the Trump reaction to learning that Joe Rogan endorsed him from last night. I think this was that was this at his final rally.
I'm not grand Rapids.
It was the one before the one was Okay, Ryan went to one of Trump's rallies yesterday. Just quickly, Ryan, give us a give us a vibe check on on the how the rally was.
So it was it was pretty low energy and Trump didn't really rile folks up. But you know it's in Reading, Pennsylvania. He had he had been in Reading a month earlier. He was in nearby Allentown like a week earlier. If you're a Trump supporter and you want to see Trump, like, you've had scores, like maybe one hundred plus chances in the Redding area to see him over the last nine years. So I don't want to discount his his potential just
based on that. But yeah, there's a bunch of old people who've been sitting there for four hours waiting for him, and so it's not surprising that they couldn't get whipped too much of.
Any may not even be advisable.
To what he did.
He rocked out to Y m c A. And you know he did the whole whole show you his dance.
Okay, let's let's take a listen to Trump learning on stage that Rogan indors.
Oh wow, I have some bigs, Megan. I'm just getting this right now. So somebody that's very very respected show two weeks ago, and I said, why not? And to me it's very big because he's, uh, the biggest there is, I guess in that world by far. Somebody said, the biggest beyond anybody in a long time and his name is Joe Rogan and he's never done this before. And it just came over the wires that Joe Rogan just indorsed me.
Is that that's so nice.
And he doesn't do that.
He doesn't do that, and he tends to.
Be a little bit more liberal than some of the people in this No. I had a lot of fun and he was amazing and he was It was a three hour interview.
In fact, I was two.
Hours late for a rally that we had had explained that a little bit and it was cold out that night. We flew and I but we had to make it. We were two more than two hours late. And they understood. I said, you know, I just was interviewed by a very interesting guy and he just kept going on. They called it long form, and it could have gone a lot longer.
But he was right.
And he's not a person that does endorsements, but he did it endorsements. So I just want to thank Joe Rogan.
That spans there you go, Ryan. One thing. I saw a couple of people who were at like reporters who are at Trump rallies, detecting a bit of a wistful tone because obviously this could be you know, very likely we're the last Trump rallies that we'll ever see, which is, you know, kind of the end of a very specific and very tumultuous era in American politics. Did you pick up on any of that?
I mean, yeah, he was withful. He's like, you know, guys, we've been doing this for nine years now. Think about that. I think he counted something like nine hundred rallies.
Wow.
And he said, you know, and then his quip there was He's like, and I've always been, you know, very well behaved. Once or twice, I may have made a slightly aggressive statement, and the fake news media has called me out on it, but in general, I've been I've been perfect.
They've been perfect rallies, perfect rallies, perfect phone calls, perfect.
Perfect, perfect. And then he said, you know, it's this is not an end. It's it's beginning and we'll be back, but we'll be talking about, you know, our achievements and what we've what we've accomplished. And people in the crowd are yelling out, we'll see you at the inauguration. So yeah, the waterworks were flowing and reading no doubt.
About it, gotcha right, well, Trump was not the only one receiving a Big Joe endorsement. Yes, Tamala Harris also receiving the endorsement of Fat Joe actually who I believe is Puerto Rican and spoke about the Tony Hinchcliff comments and made an appeal specifically to Latino voters. Let's take a listen to that.
I really want you to feel the moment. I am a sucker for a good laugh. I'm the guy they throw out the movie theater because the movie's too funny and I'm making too much noise. I'm the guy that you can roast me in the comedy club and I will laugh with you all the way out. The other day in Madison Square Garden, that was no joke, Ladies
and gentlemen, that was no joke. And it was filled with so much hate, Hatred of Jewish people, hatred of black people, garving watermelons, calling Puerto Rico in the island of garbage, my Latinos, where is your pride?
So you get a sense of that, I will tell I mean this is kind of you know, contrast to the the Republican closing strategy. Democrats genuinely feel that the Madison Square Garden rally was a bit of a turning point in terms of late breaking voters going for them a Latino voters in particular, but voters in general. There is significant decent amount of data that says, for whatever reason, late breaking voters do seem to be going more formal.
Harris will find out tonight how true that ultimately is. I texted our friend Chuck Roache yesterday to say, you know, this is a real thing, and he's like, one hundred percent, this is definitely a real thing. And the sense was it was kind of like a final straw for voters, reminding them of some of the worst parts of Trump
blah blah blah. So they're leaning in hard to this final strategy and reminding people of, you know, some of the more noxious or toxic traits of Trump that have made him unpopular over the years.
Yea.
And anecdotally, for whatever this is worth, my stepmother and sister were in voted in Allentown yesterday and said that like it was mostly Puerto Ricans in line to vote.
Now Puerto Rican population, it.
Would be probably a third Puerto Rican like normally anyway, it's you know, sixty percent population roughly in Allentown. You know, but are they showing up late and deciding to vote? Because because of this, the Democrats certainly think that that it has gotten some people to vote who otherwise would not have voted. Like it's not as if they were like Trump and now they're Kamala, or they were like
on the fence and now they're Kamala. It was like they were they were the classic voter of the choice is not who you're going to vote for us whether or not you actually decide to vote now they have a reason to.
It's the couch that would actually make more sense to me than like people who are swishing right.
Who was the guy that we was?
It like, I forget there was the artist who had already endorsed Trump, and he's like now I cannot stand.
With I'm just like, bro, shut shut the fuck up.
You know, it's like you know exactly what you're getting into first time.
I don't remember who his name is, Nick.
Jam, Nicky Jam Jam.
Yeah, I apologize, Jam, but it's like, bro, like, I'm sorry, zero respect. Yeah for that idea of somebody who was not voting and then decided to vote. That makes actually a little bit more sense to me in terms of the overall turnout. But you know, part of the reason why I'm just so skeptical of all of this is I just feel like if Kamala wins is going to come down to a huge poling error like we see with the Iowa Seltzer pole, and the vast majority of
it will be abortion right. And you know, in the scenario even where she does win in the blue wall, like, it's not like there's a ton of Puerto Ricans who live in Michigan and Wisconsin. Like, it's going to be white women who really push you over the end.
Now they know.
Look, it's highly possible a white ladies get very offended by this, like I was talking about earlier, No, I needed like statistically the most likely to get offended by it.
Yeah, definitely.
And so that is the way I would, you know, kind of look at it.
But that's where Trump's affect and character and all this stuff, where these people were probably just voting anyways and couldn't wait to go and to vote against him.
So we'll see. I don't know, I'm still curious.
Okay, guys, so we took you through these supposedly scientific election prediction models. But the reality is they all are just like it's a toss up, it's fifty to fifty. So we thought we would give you some of the less scientific election prediction models that you know, don't even have a semblance of a mirror of anything you know, real to them, but people still look at them, and some of them have a pretty good track record. So we'll start with this one. There was a panda, sorry,
not a panda, a hippo that became very famous. I was not.
Actual he canceled this.
I was actually not familiar with this baby hippo.
With mood Yeah, with mood very popular.
But she's apparently very popular. And they had her pick from two cakes, one that said Kamala Harris and the other that said Donald Trump and drumroll please moodang went for the Trump cake. Now, I have seen that the conventional wisdom is that that would indicate a Trump win. However, I have seen the contrarian cake that eating the Trump cake, which she's really signaling is she wants to eat the rich and she actually a secret Kamala Harris fan.
Very possible.
And what did they say there that they they're the conspiracy is that there was a bigger piece of dragon fruit that was.
On the on the cake, and that's.
What so they raised it.
It's certainly possible.
Listen, if you ever been to Thailand, dragon fruit is the ship whenever it is fresh. So yeah, shout out to Moodang. I no disrespect for choosing that cake. It was funny though, this one I've seen go viral everywhere now.
Ryan asked, Ryan asked, what was before we did them?
And I was like, well, mood Egg's a baby four.
Months old, I think so, so she's perfect.
She never got it.
All right.
In addition, we have a superstition about what's called the Redskins rule. Of course, now the Redskins are the Commanders, but for a long time there was a relationship between did the Redskins whin they're final home game and who
ultimately took the White House. So actually in the last Commander's home game, it was against the Bears, and I don't know if you guys saw, even as like not a big sports person, I saw this unbelievable touchdown pass, crazy hail Mary, the clocks expired, etc. To launch them
to a victory over the Bears. However, there's a catch which is that apparently literally they have recently revised the Redskins Rule to be the Redskins Rule two point zero because it like stopped being predictive sometime in the two thousands. They were like, actually, now it's flipped, and if the Redskins win, then the party in power is gonna lose. So I sort of rate this one a toss up at this point.
Okay, yeah, I don't even know what to say about that. You could also read it as fifty to fifty because the Bears had basically won the game up until the very last second whenever they threw the Hail Mary.
So yeah, I don't know the game.
It could be.
That could be it.
We could look back at that and say, you know what, that actually perfectly predicted what we're going to see on election day. This one I had heard about before. There's this monogram shop in East Hampton, New York that sells cups of the different presidential contenders, and so they look at like which candidate sells the most cups and then not supposed to be predictive. I don't actually have what
the record here of how accurate this has been. I think it's been decently accurate though, and they found that the Harris cups have been out selling the Trump cups pretty significantly, most recently. Oh this is this the Yeah, this is the monogram East Hampton.
Yeah.
Isn't this like one of the wealthiest neighborhoods like in New York?
Isn't this like Long Island?
Think that this is extremely predictive soccer, Like I dare you?
Okay, do we even.
Know how to turn the keys?
That's like going to Nantucket and being like, oh the Nantucket shop is it going big for comma?
I'm like, wow, reallynoy So.
I think they predicted Trump over Hillary. I think in twenty fifteen.
Oh so, how.
Many those people are buying Trump is a lark? See that's the other problem with Trump. Trump isually a memeable figure. We're about to get to Halloween masks right where.
Yes, so this is This is another interesting one because so traditionally the Halloween mask predictor is which candidate should sells more Halloween masks from Spirit Halloween? Like, who how many people buy which candidate's masks? I couldn't find that data this year, even though I've seen it every other election. But the number one costume was apparently the crazy cat Lady costume.
Yeah, that tracks.
So what do we make is that?
Is that a pro common commo nominated too lately to get those to get those masks shipped from China.
Yeah, good point.
Oh, that probably is what happened, right, That lady thing has hit in a degree which is like insane to me.
So like in my neighborhood here there's literally the lady two doors down as a childless cat lity for Kamala sign in her window, and our local cat cafe is selling merch.
That's like childless cat ladies for Kamala.
Harris so Keaylor Swift referenced it in her Taylor.
Swift references in her endorsement. So did Jennifer Aniston. There's a lot you could say about that, but yeah, it certainly it certainly hit else just's put it that way.
So you would say that's that's a pro Kamala sign because I was going to be a toss up because it's a little ambiguous.
No, No, it's pro Kammala.
This is hit there too.
I can combine the last two. I think it's pro Kamala. I think that's a positive sign for Kamala. I was on a flight about a month ago and there was a woman who seemed absolutely bananas while we were the flight was delayed and she started doing her workouts.
Was elderly. She started doing her workouts at.
The gate, full like lunging, all kinds of stuff, just going for it. She was wearing a childless cat Ladies for Kamala shirt.
And I know what's going on here. Get on the flight. She was in first class. She was in first So you find the two of them, Yes, East Hampton.
All it all adds up. It's a landslide, all right. Next one, we've got the S and P five hundred index. And if it's they say, if it's up between August and November, and come at parties likely to keep the White House. This one is a good metric for Kamala. However, candidate height, which was indicative in eighteen or the last twenty four elections, would indicate a Trump landslide Becausekamala is actually.
Quite Yeah, she's short.
Short, she's five foot four and what is Trumple's like six three? Yeah, well short, large, Emily, that's all.
I think she would be our shortest president.
Now, Yeah, you know, I think that might.
Be right, James James Monroe was like five. Sorry, she might be slightly taller than Monroe.
They talked about the Redskins rule here, but then they also talk about this bakery, Buskin Bakery in Ohio that's predicted almost every presidential election correctly since eighty four through cookie sales. Team. You guys tell how much research I've put into Yes, and they have Trump way up. But a confounding variable I have to say is that Elon did tweet about this bakery and so on Monday the cookie count was roughly eleven thousand for Harris and roughly
thirty thousand for Trump. So landslide for Trump in that particular count, all.
Right, does show that Elon, you know, translates IRL.
So there you go. That can mean something translates to cookie sales. I guess that's true. Okay, this is an interesting one. This one actually might be somewhat interesting to look at. This is the stock performance of the DJT like the Truth Social stock, and at the you know, when Trump was at his most confident, it was very high. Then there was a period of decline, but there has
been a rebound recently. So you know, again I feel like this is a little bit of an ambiguous indicator of what could potentially happen on election day, but could reflect how people genuinely think about, like, you know, how are things going to go for Trump here on the election?
Yeah, definitely people have been looking at that as like an inverse for how things are going to go. At the same time, didn't Jim Kramer say that there's been some pro Harris trading that's been happening. But then there's also inverse Kramer where you're like, oh, no, that's really bad from Kamala Harris.
I'm glad you brought that up, because here we go. Jim Kramer says marketing action anticipate to Harris wind, which is devastating for her.
Yes, there you go. Inverse Kramer never met against it.
And the last one I have for you guys is the Alan Lichtman. Yep, the keys. He turned the keys. He says that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. So you know, he likes to teut his track record. They say, correctly predicted nine of last ten. I think he claims he predicted all of the last ten, but some of them was like, oh, I got the popular vote, right, but that the elector was something like, he's got what did he hope around some of these?
Which one did he miss?
Then?
But he did call Trump in twenty sixteen, right, he did call.
Trump in twenty sixteen.
Yes, I'm not sure what two thousand, Maybe that's the one he I think.
It might be two thousand that he called for Gore, which or did win. But yeah, I think it might be that one. So still I'm willing to give him that one.
I feel like this should be single elimination. Like you don't get to say you've got nine out of ten, yeah, because it's once every four years you got one job, you miss one, you're done.
That's right.
Yeah, I agree with you.
So there you go. Guys.
The hippo better take notes, that's right.
Yeah, could be one and done for her man.
What's the life span of a hippo?
I got two hundred years or.
Because when I was researching these yesterday, a lot of things came up in twenty sixteen or fifty that no one ever talked about again. Yeah yes, yeah, right, profit monkey or something like that, and you never heard of it again because I guess it got it wrong and let's to your point where like over one single elimination, you can't get it wrong, and especially that particular election, that was your time to shine and go against conventional wisdom.
And if you're the profit monkey and you picked Hillary, like sorry, that's it all right, that's in Asia. So guys, we'll be doing live stream tonight six thirty. We'll be there till I don't know when. It's gonna be fun and we've got a logan, it's gonna be in the studio. We've got the decision dusk HQ data there. They usually
are the fastest with updates and calls. They're really excited to have that resource available to us, and of course we will all be there trying to figure out what the hell is going on, what the world's going to look like tomorrow.
So it's exciting.
We'll see you guys is then indeed, enjoy the day y'allah