Hello everybody, Happy Friday. We have an amazing Friday Points show for all of you, a little bit of election coverage. I know you didn't have enough election coverage, you haven't had enough discussion of the polls. But what you actually have not had enough in your life is the four of us all together. So this is a real preview of what is to come. Andy, Ryan and Emily are going to give some predictions that'll be fun. Chris and I will preview a little bit of what we're going
to talk about. We've got what do we have on deck? We have polls. We're going to like Trump and Cheney.
That's great. Well, I was just going to say it's sort of funny because the way the first block is set up, it's a clip of Nate Silver being like, all these poles are bullshit, and then us proceeding to show you every pole that exists at this point. So that game we're going to do that. We're also, yeah, Trump making some waves with some new comments about Loz Jeney. We'll show you those and her response and all of that.
And then Jadie Vance on Joe Rogan. We got a couple of clips from that that we can share with you too, So yeah, let's go ahead and jump into it before I show the Nate silver clip. We aren't going to have Ryan and Emily on air again, I don't think until election night when we're all doing our live stream together in studio. So I wanted to give you guys a chance for like your sort of polls are all basically tied. It's a coin flip, so it's just down to everybody's gut check of what they think
is going on, or reading of various tea leaves. So what what do you guys think? Emily, which way are you leaning at this point?
Thank you for starting with me and put you on the spot so.
Eager to make this prediction. No, I mean, I've actually always had a feeling that Democrats just have a better chance in this election because the right underestimates how unpopular Donald Trump is.
What I'm hearing from sources is.
That he's not making gains in the suburbs, but he is making gains in rural areas. Some of them are really excited about those big gains in roll areas, which sounds interesting in twenty twenty four, almost a decade into the Trump phenomena. But they're just it's a numbers game, right, Like there aren't as many roal voters as there are suburban voters, and as horrible of a campaign as I think Kamala Harris's run, especially in the closing three weeks.
She's kind of gotten it together this week. But as horrible as of a race, I think she's one. I mean, I think anybody. I think it's anybody's guests. I think we're all on the same page about that. But if somebody put a gun to my head, I would probably.
Say, but I'm gonna up the stakes. It's not even just gun to your head. Give us each state. What do you think?
Oh, that's brtal.
Come on, you gotta call you make a call to do it. You gotta make a call.
Make it back on.
You like my white face.
Cultural appropriations?
Well, okay, so I think the I think Kamala Harris will will win Wisconsin. I think she'll win Michigan. I think Trump will win Pennsylvania. And I think Kamala's route if she wins, we'll be through the sun Belt.
Wow.
Really, so like North Carolina and Nevada.
Is going to say she'd have to do some upset there. Okay, Interesting you and I are thinking similarly, but in a different direction, right, Ryan, what you got?
I feel like this is that kind of election where afterwards it will look so obvious in hindsight.
It always does.
Who wins well obviously this is That's why that happened. But at this point, god, who knows, since I have to pick, I think that Kamala ends up holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin and losing basically everything else.
Got it eight? Yeah?
Yeah, that would give her exactly to seventy right, yeah.
As long as she wins that one Nebraska congressional which looks I mean, the polling there is actually looked very strong for her.
So and then, oh man, the public will be so mad at that one state senator.
Oh my god, that guy needs to change his name is address for the state?
Luck.
I was just.
Political shifted that district to lean not I think lean DEM from toss up. So they're projected that he's going to lose his seat the Republican who does hold that district, which is pretty interesting. That was a strong sign in terms of Nebraska too.
Ryan, if it does, if it does work out like you're saying, like the two seventy six eight, where she wins through the quote unquote blue wall states, Like, what do you think will have happened there? Strength of suburban women or what are.
You Yeah, basically suburban women. And you know, Democrats are still getting like, you know, high eighties with the black vote, and so even though they're bottoming it out in rural areas like the suburb. You know, if you have the suburbs, if you're winning the suburbs and you're winning the cities, you can lose rural America. You know, we were christ Ner were joking on Twitter the other day that Trump relying on men is quite a risky bet. Like, actually,
here's my ballot right here. I was just going to say, I think I lost my ballot, but I just so, I just found it, but I haven't set it in. My wife sent hers in days and days ago. I'll probably go on election. Uh, and most men are like, oh shit today, God yeah, and then some bunch of.
The markets show up.
Yeah, I've I've voted when Kyle has not.
So really, my wife and I voted together. I'm actually the one who told her. I said, Babe, we got to go to the polls. What are we doing here? I don't want to wait in line. So and that was like a week ago.
Is the exception that, yes, you're an unusual creature. My friend said with love, said all right, let's go and get to Yeah, let's get to Nate Silver first informing us of why everything we're about to do and the rest of this block is worthless. But anyway, here we go. This is Nate Silver talking about how the polsters are hurting, meaning they're all putting their thumb on the scales to get basically a tide result. Let's take a listen to that. Hold on, that's way too fast.
That not too fast for me.
Let me slow that down.
All right, we already have.
Let me get my d MS on here. All right, here we.
Go fifty five with a small chance of a tie.
It's been a little weird.
I mean, look, it's gradually drifted to trump over actually a fairly long period.
Now.
I mean, you know, two and every three days Harris has lost grown on the forecast since since roughly early October. You know, it looks like you should stabilize a bit. Maybe I don't think we're gonna don't think we're gonn gonna learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust polsters lest this. They all every time a polster, Oh every state is just a plus one if every single state's a tie.
No, you're fucking hurting.
You're cheating.
You're cheating.
Your numbers are all going to come out at exactly one point leads. When you're staying with like eight hundred people over dozens of surveys, you are lying. You're putting a fucking figer on the scale. I will not name names, but some pultures are really bad about this.
I think, yeah, you get the gist there, and this is something a phenomenon that we've been talking about about.
And I looked Nate co tweeted out what previous accurate polling looked like back in you know, twenty twelve, when the polls were more accurate, and he was showing like, in each state, here's how much of a distribution you got In tern you'd get someone who was like, you know, oh, it's plus five Barack Obama, Oh, actually met Romney's leading, and the average overall was very close, but you had a lot of variability within that. Now, you guys know, I mean, we're about to look at a ton of poles,
most of which are like forty nine forty nine. Maybe Kamala's got a point edge, maybe Trump's got a point edge, And yeah, I think they're terrified. If they say it's fifty to fifty, then they can't be too embarrassed no matter what happens. And these are human beings with incentives, and they do have the ability through making these likely voter model screens, to put their thumb on the scales. And yeah, I think they are.
Yeah, I tweeted this morning. I was like, one of the things my biggest pulling lesson from this election is that Polsters don't have an incentive to get it right or even try. It's just an incentive to preserve future business by not going out on a limb. And I mean that's right cowardly and a problem in an industry that is literally's entire job is forecasting. But that is very helpful to people who are looking at this, who are trying to use like twenty twenty or whatever type comparisons.
The truth is they have the fear of God in them from two subsequent times of having such massive misses in them. So we're going to show you some indicators, but it's a lot more noisy, I think than previously. I mean that said, there are some who are going out on a limb, and for those we should take we should pay attention the ones who are going out on a limb for Trump and the ones who are going out on a limb for KMMLA, because that actually in the future we could look to them as well.
What do y'all think, Ryan and Emily.
It feels like a huge waste of everybody's time to let me assign all these people to make all these phone calls, have people sit through these surveys, then have analysts go through all the surveys. If they're actually just working backwards from their assumption, which is that it's now. The way they could all be wrong is let's say somebody wins a state by five points, and then but then they'll say, ah, well everybody missed it, so it's not it's not on me.
Well that's it. There's safety in numbers too. That's the hurting part. If everyone is saying it's fifty to fifty, then no individual polster has to be the one that you know, what was it they said, Well, Biden's gonna win Wisconsin by fourteen points or whatever, So no one faces that level of reputational damage.
Yes, Brian's cat, of course, but.
There are obviously structural problems that have not gone away, Meaning you have this like massive tech gap between hyperpensity boomer voters and this goes back obviously years. Posters have been dealing with this for a long time, and low propensity zoomer millennial voters who don't have landlines and they're adopting to the like that hasn't gone away. There is no good way to deal with that. Everybody knows that.
So I think it's I think it's there is some reasonable uncertainty, but I don't disagree with Nate Silver that people are playing a little fast and loose to preserve their themselves. And it's also because people have gotten really pissed off about polling. Yeah, I think we used it before it became so polarized. It used to be like, okay, well, you know, it's it's an art, not a science.
And I was just like, man, yeah, well, And I will say there's a lot more punishment meted out when they underestimate Republicans than like they missed in twenty twenty two they underestimated Dems, but they didn't get like ripped a new one over it. So that creates certain incentives too.
And we know because of Nate Cone's analysis that they have basically tried to clude just like we're just going to assume that we're getting some Trump non voter response and so we're just gonna, you know, sort of cluge away to bump up his poll numbers. Many of the posters are doing that, so we know they've really tried
to adjust. But they also could be that they're correct about that, that they are missing some chunk of Trump voters that they missed in twenty sixteen and missed again in twenty twenty, So who knows.
I just want to quickly say the Federalist is also an article this week that said the stigma around being a Trump supporter is gone as and as Ryan mentioned on our show on Wednesday, he said, you know, if anyone would know, it's the Federalist and that is affecting polling, There's no question about it.
And what polsters have been doing for the.
Last couple of cycles is trying to address that quote shy Trump supporter. But what if the shy Trump supporters totally gone and their adjustments are actually missing. That people are now much more eager to say he only I'm voting for Donald Trump, you know, like I heard on theovon like the stigma is very very different this time.
Oh yeah, So I thought that was an interesting point too.
Who was it on our show that made a point that Trump supporters these days are not all that shy about saying they're voting for Trump.
I think it might have been Logan that said that one.
I mean, it's definitely true if you spend any time in Trump Country during this election. The t shirts, the truck bumpers, stickers, and the signs are more out of control than I've ever seen ever before. And I lived in a place that voted ninety percent for George W.
Bush.
I don't know that the shy Trump voter theory was ever real, because I think actually the problem in twenty sixteen was just they didn't have enough non college educated people. It wasn't that people were like not admitting, it was
that they were not being sampled properly. But the Democrats have a theory there's a shy Kamala voter, predominantly like women whose husbands are voting Trump and they don't want to, like cause marital distress by admitting they want to vote for Kamala and they've had a whole ad series has been very controversial, controversial, dedicated to telling women like, don't worry, you still have your choice in the voting booth, blah blah. I think Julia Roberts voiced one, yes, she did.
Chuck Chuck Roach told me yesterday actually and undercurrentcy said he was like, no, that's one hundred percent real.
He said that they're really absolutely seeing him.
That's why they're putting money behind it, which I was totally skeptical of. Maybe he's but he's under an impression that's totally real.
All right, Well we're gonna find out. Okay they know, How will they know after that?
If it's real?
How'd they find these women like that you told them?
Yeah, that's an interesting question.
If they're not willing to talk about it.
If they're so shy they're not admitting it, Yeah, you'd have to just like.
It's got them.
On Monday night, while the while the dude was at.
The bar watching after the wine, had a couple of glasses in after the kids were in bed, the book clubs. Yes, the playgroup was infiltrated. Okay, all right, I got Polly Market up on the screen here, Sager, tell me you sent in this element. Tell me why this was significant to you.
So there's been a movement there. Actually more recently it's gone back. But Crystal, can you kit politics please out at the top and just click the politics ones, because I want to show people the battleground states specifically. If you just scroll down a little bit and you look for Michigan and Wisconsin, you can actually see that she has taken the lead in both of those states. So that was a huge swing that just happened in the
last twenty four hours. If you go back, the same thing has now happened in Wisconsin just in the last twenty four hours. Has been massive shift in both markets. Just from a pure betting point of view. I've been talking about this a little bit on the show. There has been basically like an ocean of dumb money that has come into polymarket that is purely trying to vote based on vibes the big problem. Yeah, So there you go.
You can see Kamo at fifty two, and all of that movement has happened literally in the last twenty four hours and actually more like in the last six hours. Basically, what happened is in the early days of sports betting is that it was very similar where the sports books
didn't really know how to quote unquote price align. And so what will happen is that you will have quote unquote sharp betters, people who disagree with this, who will wait until the last minute, or they will lock in something that they see is very unfavorable to the odds.
And this is a huge problem because polymarket has been dramatically out of step with just the basic Nate Silver model, which was the most accurate predictor of results in twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty, and so you can tell that the irrational exuberance has really happened, has had now a major correction. I wouldn't say that Trump won't maintain the lead just because I think a ton of money
was already placed on bets his side. And of course there's also a lot of narrative stuff going on with this. But if you look at the state by state data, the two seventy two sixty eight path in particular that Ryan is laying out is becoming a big bet on the on polymarket hot with tens of millions of dollars behind of it.
Yeah, yeah, I mean it's also just significant because the writer has focused so much, and Elon in particular is pumped up poly market so much that it's like, you know, if it's shifting some that's I don't know, maybe it shouldn't be important, but it's interesting to look.
At billions, at least a billion five in the market. It's not small. You know, this is a real thing.
Sager.
There was a French billionaire who was gaming it for Trump, right, like the yeah mask.
Yeah nobody, yeah, but yeah.
I mean whether he was, you know, legitimately is really believed in Trump was.
Altly trying to furnish you a French VPN. Okay, So like let's send.
Very true here. I've got up the Marist final polls from the Blue Wall. Now, maris is significant. We had on Edinger Mentem yesterday who called the twenty two race correctly and called the Warnock election correctly as well and
did not buy into the red wave narrative. And Marist was one of the polls that was correct in twenty twenty two, and it's one of the pollsters that he sort of like, you know, looks to the most as not falling in so much to the herding and you know and the putting of the home on the scales as many other pollsters. So they find here a tight race, but pretty good for Kamala. She's up in all three
of the Blue Wall states. She's up fifty one to forty eight in Michigan, fifty forty eight in Pennsylvania, and fifty forty eight in Wisconsin as well. That you get the Senate numbers here as well, but also look quite similar for Democrats. The Senate Democrats in the Blue Wall are no longer out for forming Kamala as significantly at least as they were in the past, so less ticket splitting it looks like there, but again who knows.
Yeah, the Maris one in particular was the most interesting Maris you can actually pick in either direction because it had big miss in twenty twenty. That's what a lot of you know, GOP people are talking about. It actually though, was very accurate in twenty twenty two. It was one of the only ones that high quality so called poster in twenty twenty two that called Fetterman up by I think it was two or three points in the state.
So it's one to take advantage of looking for if you're looking for the signal there, I think this and we're I think we're about to talk about this senior vote in Pa. Are two like flashing signs of potential Kamala victory in all three of those states.
Yeah, that's that's exactly right. Let me see what I got up next here. Next, I've got another. I've got just the rundown you sent Sager of all the Pennsylvanania.
Yay, this is you.
Yeah, let me pull let me pull this up. Hold on, let's see if I cannot screw this up.
Here we go.
Yeah, here's the rundown of all the recent Pennsylvania polling. Among Lakely voters Maris as we said, D plus two, Fox tie, quinnipiec R plus one, CNN tie, CBS tie. So, and then you've got more down here Marist D plus three. Uh oh, this is Michigan WAPO D plus one, Fox D plus two, CNND plus five. Michigan appears to be Commala's most certain state at this point. Wisconsin D plus two, D plus two, D plus six, and thie North Carolina anyway,
it goes on from there a lot of uh. And then as you get to Arizona's the state that is the swing state that is probably the most favorable for Trump, either there or Georgia, where the polling has been a little bit more erratic, more of a more variability there.
Yeah. Uh, I guess let's give the Trump case. I think. Don't you have Atlas which is listed up next? Atlas was quite uh what was it the most accurate pollster in tw twenty and yeah, I believe that one. That one's listed next Crystal in the Rundown. Yeah, if right underneath there. So yeah, there you go, and you can see wide margin of strength for Trump in Arizona, in North Carolina, in Nevada if he's got a couple of points. Georgia actually has tighter at one point six just for
Donald Trump. But they have Trump leads in all three of the states, with Wisconsin actually being the tightest one at point three. Emily, what do you make of that? There's on the betting markets right now. Wisconsin is actually what a lot of people have as going to be the tightest state for battleground state. I think it was the second tightest last time in or sorry, in twenty sixteen, what do you think is going to happen there?
I mean, both candidates have spent a truly outrageous amount of time there host Hillary Clinton.
Obviously there's a good reason for that, but it's I mean, it's tied.
That's that's what I say. Like the RCP average has actually Harris up in their national average. I'm looking at it right now. They have her up in every blue Wall state except for Pennsylvania. So in Wisconsin it's only by point three though on the national RCP average. So it's just they have a huge Senate race, and I know, like Ryan and Crystal, you guys have covered Tammy Baldwin's career for a long time. She's very popular in Wisconsin.
The Republican candidate has inflation and immigration going for him, but he's kind of actually interned for him when I was but a young student, and his other things going against him, just being an out of state a multi multimillionaire or someone who's pegged us out of state. So I just it's so it's too close, and I know that's not very useful, but I have sources saying they're seeing in Wisconsin in particular the rural margins going up,
which again I find just fascinating. Like now people say I'm turning out for Trump and I'm voting for Trump in these rural areas after nearly a decade of the Trump phenomena, but they say they're clearly not confident the suburban margins. I feel like they're going to keep losing in the Wow counties that's uh waukeshaw Zaki in Washington outside of Milwaukee. And if their margin, Trump will win
all of those counties. But if he keeps losing, or if he keeps winning by less, then that's a real disaster. Yet I don't know that you can mathematically make up for that with uh the rural voters. And I think Ryan probably sees something similar as a Pennsylvania guy when you look at the collar counties outside Philadelphia.
We got some new two new CNN battleground poles as well. They had already released their Blue Wall polls and to their credit, showed, you know, something other than a tie. They showed Harris with a significant lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and then it tied in Pennsylvania. This time, they've got Georgia Trump forty eight forty seven. North Carolina Kamala forty
eight forty seven. So there you go. Whatever you can make of that, I don't really know, but you know this, if this was all accurate, perfect accurate, I guess Kamala would win depending on Nevada. But this Pennsylvania being a tie really kind of PA is the really kind of screws it up. Yeah, there to be able to make any sort of real prediction based on any of that.
Yeah, I mean, I look, if put the polling aside, you know, let's focus on the actual like vote and stuff that we're seeing. Yeah, I'm glad you put this up there on the screen. This has been the thing I've heard. I have a few friends who are real like gop Cassandra's like, there are one hundred percent convinced Trump is going to lose, and I always check in with them because it's a very good check. This is one of the ones that they've been pointing to me
a lot. Quote. As the early results from PA reveal an influx of first time female voters who will break for Harris, newfound anxiety is taking hold, and in mar A Lago they are starting to believe that the surge last week was two weeks premature. Put the whole surge stuff, you know, like out of it, because a lot of this is I don't even necessarily know if like the current vibe of the election would have affected that. I think the truth is that the electorate has just changed
a lot. And this is one of the big problems with the twenty twenty recall to vote waiting that a lot of these polsters are doing. We were talking right before, Crystal about in migration, the character of each of these states, specifically the battleground states has changed dramatically in terms of
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia just population wise. Then add on top of that that you have had not similar changes in the blue Wall states, but demographically you had that massive suburban swing that has happened for Kamala Harris, it's a hidden sign of strength for her. It always
has been. Trump's major strength would be his ability to drive out that rural vote, like Emily has said, and one of the signs of strength for him is, for example, in Georgia today there is actually a higher turnout amongst
rural counties. Some of these rural counties are already at ninety two percent of their election day totals before the ballots have even been cast an election day, and they are much higher, some like thirty percent higher than actually in the suburban counties in Georgia that surrounding Metro Atlanta.
So the only really way that this election will turn for Trump is if there is, uh, there is that similar like strength even more like one hundred and ten percent in the rural counties and specifically also with the black and Latino vote to offset any white suburban shift. But this is why it is still such a very very tight race here. That's what I really.
Saw Ryan in twenty sixteen, Schumer famously said basically like, you know, for every voter we lose that's working class or rural, will gain two in the Pennsylvania suburbs. And you know, this indicates that that math may actually now be paying off.
I guess, I mean, basically, he was running a cynical math game that we are a country that is like you drive around our country, we're a suburban country. Like it's just it's suburbs from coast to coast, plus then some cities like inside there, and then you get out in the rural areas. Those are pretty suburban like it's I think I think more people consider themselves living in
a rural area than actually do live in a rural area. Now, if people vote based on how they feel and identify, then that then it doesn't actually matter that they're wrong about where they live. But yeah, I mean the Democrats are going to test the theory, like how badly can you completely bottom out among an entire kind of regional sector of the vote and still maintain a nationwide competitiveness.
This part is so key too that you have in front is this Trump lagging in the early vote with seniors. And I was thinking about it. If Kamala is given the White House in two seventy two sixty eight by boomers in PA, but Trump wins the black Latino vote, and he actually wins all the most economically dynamic states, which is across the Sun Belt, will have like one of those reverse twenty sixteen situations where what did Hillary say she was like I won all the places? What does she say that she was.
Like our dynamic growing or doing well?
That?
Yeah, and he and all the places they are doing bad.
It actually would be the opposite this time around, which kind of fits if you think about my whole barsool conservative thesis about like you know, libertarian economics and specifically the type of people who would move to a sun belt state where the election, you know, where the economy is the pre eminent one, as opposed to PA where it's pretty clear like a lot of the people who are coming in for common the Democrats are coming on the back of abortion and it's just like one of
the number one catalysts for that surgeon suburban vote and specifically also with women.
And let me just quickly put some numbers on this, because I have them in front of me. This is, according to Pew, to just visualize the difference between rural, suburban and urban voters, forty six million Americans live in the nation's rural counties, one hundred and seventy five million in its suburbs and small metros, and then about ninety eight million in its urban core counties. So I mean, it's really just it's not even close.
Yeah, yeah, And I guess that's the other question with the early vote that people have been raising, you know, where there's huge early turnout in these rural counties, is at the end of the day, where these just people who were going to show up an election day, another showing up early, you know, so it doesn't really impact the turnout margin, et cetera in these counties, and you know, still very much too early to tell on any of that.
Next we have another you know, if you're making the bowl case for Democrats, this is the enthusiasm numbers, and you can actually see that they have maintained. Now, Democrats have actually slid a little bit since basically like Kamalo's pick, but still they have maintained very high enthusiasm numbers, higher than the Republicans. And you know, I feel like you can get that vibe a little bit at some of Trump's rallies are a little bit more low energy than
they used to be. Certainly massive turnout for Kamala in the places where she is popular on the you know, the Ellipse where you guys were the other night. I've also seen numbers which are kind of wild to me that she's as possular with Democrats as Barack Obama was at his like peak in two thousand and eight, which is, you know, surprising, but.
In any case, primary people hated him.
That is true. You also at that point had more people who are in that, like, you know, Appalachian in particular, I still identify as a Democrat, but I'm really not a Democrat outside of maybe like voting for county officials, and most of that realignment has all shaken out. Yeah, all right, let me see what I got here next. This is interesting about where the turnout is, that rural turnout. This is from Greg Bluestem down in Georgia, great reporter
at Atlanta Journal Constitution. He says, the highest early voting turnout in Georgia is not in Democratic strongholds like Dacabb County or the fiercely contested suburbs that surround Metro Atlanta. It's in sparsely populated rural counties where Republicans dominate. So this is what what you guys have been talked about. You know, Like I said, the Democratic cope here is that okay, But those people are just going to vote on election day, so no big deal. And also, by
the way, there's not enough of them. But it can also be an indicator of hey this, you know, your opponent is really fired up, Like they are turning out to vote early in potentially unprecedented numbers.
It's totally what I'm hearing from Republicans. That's really where they're getting their source of hope from right now, is what they're seeing in early voting in rural areas.
And Emily, is there a nervousness there though, Like there's a lot of bravado publicly, But are you like we we showed the reporting I believe from Puck News earlier that said there was anxiety in particular about Pennsylvania. Is that accurate to the best of your knowledge?
Totally?
And that said, and Sager, you're probably seeing this too. It's it's almost polarized within like geop circles, where you have some people who are feeling jittery because of that, and then you have other people who are like, actually, we're gonna see Trump win the popular vote. He's going to sweep the blue wall, and he's been surging the last few weeks.
She's been struggling.
We've just seen him be underestimated in those national averages, and the fact that he's tied means that he's probably up by three or four points. And so election day comes around and you see him win Wisconsin by two, you see him win Pennsylvania by three, you see him just absolutely crushed North Carolina and Georgia, and we know the answer pretty early. So people are like in one of two camps. There aren't a lot of people in
the middle. People are either like, who these numbers have this feeling a little uncomfortable because of the suburban vote, or people like, actually, he's being underestimated.
The other caution I would throw out for people out there is there's a real public private game happening right now. So I noticed this with like democratic election experts, like everything is about like, well, actually, here's why the Democratic turnouts like not that bad, or actually, here's why you know the Democratic turnout is going to be okay. And there's also a huge I mean because Twitter right now
is signal boosting like so much pro Trump content. There's a real effort to try and just like demoralize the left by saying like, oh, it's going to be a Trump blowout victory. It's going to be this. The smart ones, the smarter ones, I will say, are people like Mike Cernovich and Charlie Kirk, who I noticed, you know, we're originally doing that, but when they got the data in, they were like, Okay, we have a problem here. Men are not voting. We need to get our asses out,
we need to go vote right now. But there is still I have noticed, like a commentator or a polling analysis types which have grown up on the right, which are very, very obviously geared to trying to demoralize the left. And so you I'm what I'm saying that is for people who are out there who are just scrolling, you may not know that is you should really like think about the motivations also of the poster, because sometimes a lot of it is not honest analysis. I saw a
lot of this back in twenty twenty. Oh Trump, you know, Virginia is in play. It's like, no, it's not. You know, it's not like we just saw a rowneck pole this morning has carry us up by ten points. Or remember in twenty twenty, New Mexico is in play. Like again, no it's not. You know, Trump lost it by more than twenty twenty than he did in twenty sixteen, and he'll probably be lose it by I mean, pols just saw this morning in New Mexico he's down by twelve.
So now why is Trump in both of these states in the last week of the election. Beats me, you know, it's.
All politics is national, so it kind of doesn't really matter where he does the rally at this point, if the rally gets coverage, Ryan, do you get any vibes from the Democratic side or they're too mad about you opposing their genocide to talk?
No?
No, their vibe is nervous, with some cautious optimism that they're in it like they've.
Isn't the Democratic vibe always nervous though.
Yes, I agree with that, except twenty sixteen they were, Yeah.
Yeah, famously not nervous in twenty sixteen competent again. Yeah, yeah, I was there, man, at the Davit Center. It was sad. It was a sad place to be. Let me tell you, it was a sad place to be, all right. We got some dueling endorsements here. Let me just quickly go through these. We got Lebron James sharing some Tony Hinchcliff and endorsing Kamala Harris. I won't play the video, but it's, like, you know, a compilation of basically like hateful comments from
Trump and various supporters. We also, though, got on the other side, Jake Paul endorsing Donald Trump, and I actually didn't. I'm not sure what the content is of this video. It did in eighteen minutes of Jake Paul's explanation for his endorsement. Maybe maybe somebody else here can share some more insight there.
No, I mean it's you know, as an original Team ten person, this is of course shocking to see somebody who I used to watch during prank videos now literally endorsing Trump. But look, Jake Paul Logan Paul is not a surprise. There were two who were original, like from some of the early influencers who were kind of flirting with and or endorsing Trump interviewing him. It's if you look at the world that they swim in from crypto go to boxing, UFC, like the bro sphere online, it's
very obvious what that trend in direction is. For example, like Jake was a big vivig Ramaswami guy, right, so there you go, like where does that come from? It's very much like the podcast world. And so, I mean, this is a big bet, and that's Ryan what you just talked about. The bet is is these people will come out to vote. Now, statistically it doesn't really happen,
but twenty twenty was a very high turnout election. We don't think that twenty and twenty four will reach twenty twenty levels, but it'll probably be higher than twenty sixteen. I think the youth vote was higher in twenty twenty than it had been in quite a long time. So you know, if you see people who are jazzed up and potentially you know, this could be something that swings
in their direction. So I don't I wouldn't dismiss it because if their theory of the male turnout and the gender grap is correct, especially in terms of enthusiasm getting people out to vote, it will be like genuinely a landmark moment, especially some of those swing states where if that's what the margin of victory is, it'll be pretty crazy.
Yeah, and it's a huge long term problem for Democrats regards even if they eat this one out. Just not having Democrats even be part of the conversation among like
one of two genders is insane. Every Like pretty pretty much everything that that that men do ends up being coded as Republican and right wing, whether it's like exercise, trying to stay healthy, watching sports, like just you know, talking about like talking about sports, whatever it is, like it it drifts into like the world of conservative podcasting, and they're just other than like Hassan Piker. There's like nobody there.
You're there, Ryan me other than me, and I don't
know that I'm really helping. But of course, I mean the flip side of that is obviously Republicans struggling with women in the bet that's being placed in this particular election is Republicans think the motivation of like the podcast circuit and Trump going on Rogan and Dake Paul endorsing and whatever will be sufficient motivation and energizing enough on the bro side to overcome the sense among many women and young women especially that they have lost a right
that they previously took for granted.
And it's kind of incredible that she it's kind of incredible she didn't take up the Joe Rogan opportunity. And I wonder if she'll kind of be the last one that blows them.
Doesn't If she loses, that will be a huge That'll be one of those like, I'm.
Just not as sold on it because Number I just there's a lot of risk there for her right.
We visually may not just probably equipped for three hours of that exactly fair.
Yeah, And then it's like how many of these people are winnable, motivatable, et cetera. I don't really disagree with their analysis of basically like, hey, if you'll do an hour and come to us, I guess we'll make it work. But in the home stretch we've got other fish to fry.
I think a lot of them would have been winnable, but not necessarily by her. True what they need as a candidate who can sit down for three or four hours.
Yeah, like I think, you know, Bernie did, like you know, Rogan's audience. I think at that point in Rogan himself was ideologically different when Bernie sits down with him. And Bernie also, by the way, didn't do three hours, but I people liked it on that podcast, and he was able to you know, go with the flow and like do his Bernie thing.
Just But yeah, Lex, Well, I was just gonna say quickly, it's a problem for Democrats obviously, but it's a huge problem for Republicans. There are abortion referendums on the ballot when people are going to vote all over the country right now. So the gender gap, which literally as we were talking, I had a GOP source say we will see the largest gender gap in an election in decades. Well, it gets us right back to the same math that we're doing between rural and suburban. It's like, you can
in all of the bros. But Megan Colli and Nikki Hayley, even this week after the Madison Square Garden rally, We're like, dude, you are.
Turning off women.
So it's not even just abortion, it's just the bro coded stuff like you can try to amp up the Meal voters, just like you can try to amp up the Royal voters for turnout, but then does it go too far in that direction and do you hurt your margins in other places?
All right, we're going to turn out of Liz Cheney. Donald Trump did an event last night with Tucker Carlson made some quote unquote eye popping comments. We can debate what exactly said, whether it even should be all that controversial, but Christal, do you have it?
Hid? Let me pull this up here, here we go. This is getting a lot of attention on cable news and with Democrats in particular. So here, let's take a listen.
And Cheney was so fair. He said, I really want to thank you. He said, Now, I'm so glad that I actually endorsed you. It's amazing, but that you would do this, And I didn't speak to him about it, But then, you know, go a couple of years forward to go now, and I don't blame him for sticking with his daughter. But his daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb. She's a radical war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrel shooting at her. Okay,
let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face. You know, there were a war Hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, will let's send Let's send ten thousand troops right into the mouth of the enemy. But she's a stupid person. And I used to have I have meetings with a lot of people, and she always wanted to go to war with people. So whether it's her, whether it's sick. I was surprised a little
bit with Dick Cheney. I didn't know him at all. I only had essentially the one or two phone calls, and it was only a call saying thank you very much for doing that for Scooter Libby. That was nice. And Scuda, by the way, was beyond that, he couldn't believe that it happened. Nobody would do it. They should have done that for him years before. But I was a little surprised because I actually thought that Dick Cheney would go with me over his daughter and he didn't.
And you know what, I understand it. It's your daughter and you go, but she's a bad person.
So to me, well, I'll let I'll let the rest of you guys react. But it's kind of wild to me that he was sad that he didn't get the Dick Cheney endorsing.
Se Cable keeps talking about that. For me, I'm like, bro, we don't want the Dick Cheney endorsement. That's the whole point.
Like Dick is way worse than Liz Way, Like she's got the bad ideology, like he did the thing like and you're still like, gosh, I wish Dick Cheney had
endorsed me. It just shows you to me. And then well you can talk about the comments that you know, I think for for reasons that are you know, not unreasonable, that got picked up on where he was saying, you know, let's see her with the guns pointed at her face or something like that, but you know it shows you all of this, Oh, the neo cons are with Kamala and Trump is anti war and whatever. None of this is ideological for him. He still loves Mike Pompeo. He's
Mike Pompeo might be the Secretary of Defense. Tom Cotton might be the Secretary of Defense. He's still pining after the Dick Cheney endorsement. He campaigned with Liz Cheney last time he ran, and she supported him throughout his entire term in office. So for him, it's just all about number one, Like how sort of prestigious he thinks you are.
So he thinks Dick Cheney because he was vice president and he's well known, blah blah blah, it's prestigious, even though he's like, to me, one of the most evil, most nefarious politicians we've ever had in American politics. But then number two, and most importantly, it's not about ideology. It's about how do you feel about me personally? And did you come through for me personally when I needed and wanted you.
If you're looking for ideologic coherence from Donald Trump and your Republican voter, I've got some bridges to sell you in terms of the cable comments. So I will quote from Zach Bouchamp, who can we all agree Zach Bouchamp is a major liberal Kamala Harris type figure. He says, folks, Trump did not threaten to execute Li Cheney. He actually was calling her a chickenhawk, something liberals have said about her for ages. Look at the context Trump is talking
about giving her a weapon. Typically people put in front of firing scarms aren't armed. Trump does so many offensive things, He makes so many anti democratic promises, it is counterproductive to get outraged about fake ones. That and if you also combined Glenn Greenwald's long list there of all the chickenhawk comments that people have made throughout the two thousands about the Chinese, that is one of the most sane things that Trump has actually said about Liz Cheney. So I'll leave it at that.
I think he's making a legitimate point, but it's somewhat amusing that he's making the point as they are saying that Kamala Harris calling him a fascist and a Nazi is incitement to another assassination attempt. So if we're playing this game, I mean, obviously am the political candidates to this.
Thank you for saying that, and like, can you sound off on this this? What did Mark Cuban say something about like stupid women? He was like, no intelligent women sport.
But I've had an all time Hall of Fame level tweet at yes.
I saw that. Yeah, where he's like he doesn't even have club speed. This is two where let's let's float slow clue, let's talk about golf. Republican Republican snowflakes on this, They're like, I'm a strong woman and I support Trump. I'm like, you are just as much of a loser then as those possy hat wearing liberals if you're out there like sorry, like you know, like do we reject identity stuff or not? Like are we getting offended at
things or not? And it's like the selective bias on this drives me crazy because they're like, Mark Cuban doesn't respect women because you said smart women don't surround themselves with Trump. And they're like, I'm a swart woman who works for Donald Trump. I'm like that's like Hillary Clinton, like bullshity.
It's it's well, no, I mean it's virtue signaling, right, Like it's it's what's so insufferable about virtue signaling on the left is that there's a sanctimony to it, and it's the same thing when it's on the right. Now, Mark Cuban said something really dumb, by the way, from the interior of what appeared to be his private jet. Well, he was beaming into his view and assuring everybody that Kamala Harris would be the best president for them. So it's it's amusing all around, Like there are real, no
real winners here in this situation. But I do think it is a little bit precious to defend Donald Trump saying let's see Liz Cheney with a gun in her face.
And by the way, the reason because you know, if Kamala or Tim Walls or Mark Cuban or whatever said that about let's say Tulci Gabbard or Trump himself, there would be quite a reaction, you know, coming coming from that side with that level of like, you know, visceral, violent type rhetoric.
I mean, again, though it's a warhawk comment, it's like, hey, she doesn't work, that's a chicken hawk point, that's you know. I mean, I remember saying shit like that about George W. Bush, right like, and I think it was fine. Anyway, Look, and what do you think.
I think it's not fair for people to want descriptions of war to be more sanitized like that, because that's basically what they're saying. They're saying, it's okay to call somebody at chicken hawk, Uh, but you should leave it at chicken hawk and say they should go to war. But but when you get into the grizzly details of what war is like, that's that's a little bit too much.
But that is the essence of the chicken hawk critique that war is hell and that nobody who's ever experienced the hell of it would think it is anything other than hell. Now, some people who've experienced it still think it's necessary to create the world that we want to live in, et cetera. But the idea is that it is hell, and it is grizzly, and people do have guns, you know, pointed at their pointed at their face, and bullets that you know, ripped through their skulls and their lives.
And that's that's seeing it change Seeing it and being part of it changes you. So I think it's just kind of unfair to say, like, you can call someone a chicken hawk, but you can't like describe the grizzly details of war because that that's the whole Yeah, well at all is the whole. That's the whole point.
There's of course another element to this, which is that Trump himself used bots birth to get down observing liberals.
Liberals, he's a draft dodger.
It's true.
It's a totally fine thing to say too.
Yeah, but his own his own Vietnam you guys all know.
Oh yeah, not getting STDs and thank you for So.
This is Liz Cheney's response. She says, this is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants
to be a tyrant. And so, you know, I think Democrats feel, like, you know, while they're trying to lay the fascist charge at his feet, and they're also trying to change the topic from a news cycle about whether or not Joe Biden said that Trump's supporters are quote unquote garbage. I think they are happy to seize on these comments as well, and as a reminder that of some of the things that people really don't like about
Donald Trump. And you know, I've been thinking about this hour because we've been going back and forth a little bit on this. But part of what has made Trump hold up so well in this election is that his approval rating is significantly higher than he used to be, and so he's still underwater in most polls, you know, some amount, but not nearly where he used to be. And so Democrats paid advertisements are by and large going after like it's more of like a class war message.
But obviously Kamala Di the Ellipse speech, they amplified the comments from John Kelly saying, Hey, I serve with this guy, and he is a fascist. And so they feel like this very visceral invocation of violent rhetoric kind of fuels and serves to people of some of the elements of him that they don't like and plays into their argument about who he is.
Ultimately, Okay, I'll give it to them. I mean, because they've got the media on their side. Basically, they are literally saying on CNN all morning, they're like, oh, if he wants to put Trump or Liz Cheney in a firing squad, if I combined with that with the senior figure, I will say yeah, that's a problem. Now again, I don't think I think it's a dishonest presentation by CNN and MSNBC based on that. But if the senior vote
is correct the numbers they're coming out right now. I mean, just anecdotally, seniors who I've spoken to, they bring up the wildest shit. You know, They'll be like, oh, did you see Trump called you know, veteran suckers and loser. I'm like, bro, what, Like this's a bullshit store. And then but they don't want to hear it, like that's the type of stuff that they take in or the type of things that piss them off. More. What I'll say is just so different than I think a lot
of people who watch our show. So I could see this presentation by CNN and MSNBC and all that feeding into that crystal because that is specifically the that is the strategy of the Harris Cheney voter. I mean, like we see this for example in PA at that event. It was not an accident, Ryan, You'll know. It was in Malvern, one of the wealthiest, I believe, the wealthiest city, one of the wealthiest in the mainline suburban Philadelphia area.
So I could see it, and that you know a lot of older voters there in that In that respect, it's true.
Look, I think there are decorum voters absolutely, you know, not just older. I think I don't. I don't think just older. I think, you know, the suburban women vote that they're chasing very hard. Like I think there are who you know, respectless Cheney for whatever reason, whether they should or not as actually I don't even think that's
a question. They shouldn't. But but yeah, I think there is a decorum voter out there who feels like these comments are too far, who don't want the visceral description of war, even though that should be put in our face more often. To your point, Ryan.
Yeah, I'm in the minority on this.
Yeah, I mean, I was just gonna say the reason that list Cheney is being deployed specifically for women voters and so the bro code thing, you know, you know, JD Vance on Joe Rogan yesterday, and I think soccer and I probably agree that he did a good job for a number of reasons, and that that will be helpful for a number of reasons. Although people probably don't
elect vote to elect vice presidents. But this Cheney is specifically being used by Democrats to get this very small slice of the electorate pie, which is suburban swing women voters who might be persuaded by Liz Cheney to vote for Kamala Harris.
And so it's not a huge group of people.
But Trump then saying, yeah, you see what happens if she gets blasted in the face or you put a rifle in her fashion. Misrepresent the comments, but put a gun in her face. Those people are probably already leaning towards Kamala Harris. But it's definitely not helpful because the media is going to run with it all dancy, and then it will.
Just not Probably the closing argument of the Republicans dreams.
Yeah, I mean, we're not going to cover j D
because we're out of time. But I mean, this is the problem with having somebody who just talks a lot like and you know, it's like, if you compare the appearances, I challenge I challenge people out there listen to Trump and JD on Rogan back to back, same interviewer, you know, like, same studio and all that, and you tell me who has a better command to the facts, a better articulation of the case, a better like cares about you like better on every single thing that people say that they like.
But then also we know that, you know, Trump is the person who won the GOP primary, so that also tells us quite a bit about what those voters want from him. So there you go.
Yeah, well, I think we'll probably maybe cover on Monday. Sorry, you and I can talk more about the JD Van's interview. But I mean, he has positioned himself very well within the Republican Party, you know. But now it all comes down to Trump. How this election goes. What does he win, does he lose? What does the stop this? What is the flavor of the stop the steal this time? If
Trump does lose, does JD go along with it? Like there's still a lot of trip wires for him, but no doubt in terms of like the conservative base, he has done himself a lot of favors there.
Very true. All right, that's a good tease, Ryan M. Thank you for joining us, guys. This was fun, good time.
Like you guys opened up by saying it was a Friday points or points Friday, because that.
What you do. Yeah, He's a Friday points.
Are they breaking or are they countering? Nobody knows the Judge, we report you decide A.
Sorry, have a good weekend y'all. Bye.