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If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody's day, extra amazing because Ryan is here. Bro show people live for the pound. That's what it's all about. Let's go ahead and see what we've got on deck. We're going to start with Hurricane Milton and all of the updates around that.
I actually looked at the data.
Florida is one of the largest states in terms of audience for our show, So for all of them down there, we are thinking about you, and we're going to try and update you and the entire country about this imminence potential.
Theast huge portion of our audience maybe in the car right now listening to.
This very possible.
We wish you absolutely the best and keep you guys as up to date as possible. Obviously a storm that's going to devastate potentially Florida, but also potentially reshape a lot of our national conversation around that. But we're going to start with just the facts and then perhaps we'll get into some of the analysis. We're also going to talk about Kamala Harris. He appeared on sixty Minutes last night.
There is ought to say about that. I think we'll just leave it at that.
There's quite a few clips and other things at her foibles, perhaps her strengths as president. We're going to talk about the polls we are going to look with Logan Phillips in one of our exclusive segments here. Some of it will be public available today, but a lot of it is going to be behind the paywall up until later. That's for our premium subscribers. That's an incentive for you
to go ahead and sign up. We're going to talk about the State Department where Ryan actually dropped a big story over at drop site with his colleagues and then the State Department was pressed about that. Finally, we are going to talk about Hillary Clinton in a recent interview on censorship, and then we have a great guest Jefferson Morley on JFK and some new revelations about Lee Harvey Oswald and some of the other shenanigans that he was
potentially up to. I won't tease too much because Jefferson is just such an intelligent guy's been following this for almost his entire life, so much scholarship.
On the JFK assassination.
He's got even more new revelations that add to the picture of what happened. So let's go ahead and start with Hurricane Milton. We're going to borrow here from Ryan Hall. Some of you may know him on YouTube, never met him. We reached out to him. By the way, Ryan, if
you're listening, we would love to host you. But he really has some of the best weather analysis out there, and so we thought we would just borrow from him and play some clips so that you guys can see what he is looking at in terms of Hurricane Milton, its acceleration into a Category five hurricane, and now I believe it's the fourth or fifth most powerful hurricane in this region of the world ever seen by humanity.
So let's go ahead and take a listen to.
Ryan Major Hurricane Milton is a high end Category three hurricane with one hundred and twenty five mile per hour winds and the pressures down there around nine hundred and forty five millibars. This is astronomically stronger than what it was yesterday, and that intensification is going to continue today.
As soon as two am early in the morning tomorrow, we could have a high end Category four with one hundred and fifty five mile per hour winds right here, just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near Progresso, Mexico. I really hope that the people down here in Mexico are watching out for this one, because this has taken a really strange approach. I don't know if this area has ever had to deal with a hurricane like this
coming in at this angle and at this intensity. This is going to be a pretty bad situation for Mexico, especially if it takes a more southern track here, because it's going to be at its peak intensity right here. The official forecast is, of course, for one hundred and
fifty five mile per hour Category four storm. However, I really do believe that this could very well be a Category five, maybe even by the end of today, not even tomorrow, and then it could be a high end Category five by the time it gets to this area, especially if it continues to strengthen in the unbelievable fashion that it has so far. But from there it is
going to start slowly weakening. Okay, we do expect it to be down to one hundred and fifty miles per hour as it goes a little bit farther to the east.
Once it gets between the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida, as it's really starting to approach Florida, it's going to be down to one hundred and forty four miles per hour, and then we expect it to make landfall or at least be just off the coast of Florida as a Category three major hurricane on Wednesday, sometime after two pm and before eight pm there you go.
So eight pm that is really when sorry Wednesday overnight up until the morning on Thursday, and fortunately by this time we do the show here on Thursday, we're going to have potential some images where you will know the extent, at least of some of the limited and early amounts of damage. Let's go and put this next one up on the screen. This is from Noah Bergen. He is a meteorologist down in Florida for Fox Orlando. Here's what he says, quote, this is nothing short of astronomical iomitty
a line lost for words to meteorologically describe you. The storm's small eye and intensity eight hundred and ninety seven MVP pressure with one hundred and eighty miles per hour max. Sustained winds and gusts of two hundred miles per hour plus. This is now the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on.
This side of the world.
The eye is tiny, at nearly three point eight miles wide. This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth's atmosphere over the ocean water can produce.
So let that one's think.
In about just how powerful a storm can get as of a last or I guess what five.
Am this morning.
The update that he's given us is just that they're continually looking at the storm. That there's been some mild weakening, but that is not going to stop the impact, and the potential storm surges. Those surges look devastating, Ryan, and all of this has prompted massive evacuation. We have some pictures that we can show here let's go ahead and see some of that video. Yeah, you're looking there. This
is evacuation in progress in Sarasota. This is a look at the northbound traffic on I seventy five as residents began to make their escapes. A lot of reports coming out of Florida about sold out hotel rooms, about gas lines, about horrible traffics, or really thinking about everybody there. But this is a devastating storm, Ryan, and the storm surge is no joke, some eight to ten feet in some areas. As I understand that. One of the things that makes it so unique is it's coming there onto that coast
of Florida towards Tampa. Tampa has not had a major hurricane that's hit it in about one hundred years, and so a lot of the residents, particularly.
Because some damage from Helenia, right, But.
There's been a lot of new residents that live in Tampa in particular, who are not used to perhaps the hurricane warnings and evacuation all that. So public officials are sounding the alarm as big as they can. They're like, if you are in an evacuation zone, you need to get the hell out of there as soon as possible, So hoping that our listeners who are in the Tampa area and any others, you know, please heed your local evacuation orders and all this because this looks bad.
And what's remarkable at the Ryan hallclips is that, you know, he's expecting it to come in at you know, one hundred and thirty, one hundred and forty. It's going to be a serious storm, but it at all of a sudden, almost instantly, like people were saying they've never seen anything happen.
That quickly acceleration and from storm to category.
Five, right, they're expecting that.
Okay, this is unfortunate for Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and I hope everybody is safe over there. It'll be down to maybe one thirty one forty as it creeps across over closer to Florida.
And then Milton had other ideas.
Instantly, while we're talking one seventy five, one eighty h somebody, you know, I saw some meteorologist saying that it was approaching the mathematical possibilities for our for our atmosphere, yeah, exactly, which is what a harrowing line, like, what what does that even mean?
And what's beyond those possibilities.
Like this, this is it and the I think you're exactly right to highlight the fact that so many millions of people have flooded no pun intended Florida over the last couple of years in search of this great weather and this cheaper housing has They've been driven out of other places to then match that migration with this storm hitting these hitting these folks who aren't prepared for it.
There's no no, no wady in Florida has a basement. Yeah, and you know a lot of these you know, these houses are slapped together.
This is these are well, they're very newly construed.
This is not in Jamaica, British Virgin Islands, US Vision islands. Like these are cinder block houses, you know, weathered by hundreds of years of hurricanes, where you know they can they can hunker down in that bunker. That's not what you have throughout a lot of Florida.
It's really devastating. Let's go to the next one. This kind of underscores what you're talking about. Only seven hurricanes have gone from category one to Category five and twenty four hours Milton is now actually the second fastest to ever do so. Let's go a five. Also, please up on the screen. This is for anyone who is watching. These are the evacuation areas that you can see from Jacksonville,
Fort Myers, Jupiter, Orlando, Tampa. They are also highlighting in green the cities where they are recommending that there will not be power outages.
So a personal friend of mine is.
Actually in Miami, lives in the Tampa area, but they are in the northern above Florida, above the Panhandle. They're recommending people go to Columbia, Charleston, Savannah, make In, Atlanta, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Panama City, Jackson and New Orleans. So yeah, evacuating a hurricane just to have to go to New Orleans kind of ironic. There, let's go to the next one. This
again just highlights the flooding. This is really devastating. I believe that this is from FEMA and this shows just on the coast of what the expected storm surge will look like. So, as I said, the Tampa Bay area is expecting some eight to twelve feet of storm surge.
I mean eight to twelve feet of water that will come.
And you know, if you've ever been to that city, just how much of it is there on the coast. They're also looking at five to ten feet in other areas, and even a quote unquote small one of two to four feet in the less effected But as I understand that, that is double of what Hurricane Helene brought, and already they had a lot of debris that was.
On the ground from Hurricane Helen.
One of the major priorities of Florida authorities over the next twenty four hours is actually to pick up as much debris as possible, to forestall any flying around debris and projectiles that would break a lot of property in
the area. But people there are really bracing and what we actually want to highlight is an interview that the mayor of Tampa just gave last night where she said, I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those vacanvation areas, you are going to die.
Let's take a listen.
What would you say to people tonight who were saying, you know what, I'm going to ride this out.
I've written others out.
What would you say to people who aren't hating those evacuation orders.
Well, I can tell you right now that they may have done that in others. There's never been one like this, and this Helene was a wake up call. This is literally catastrophic. And I can say, without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die.
You are going to die.
So that's obviously pretty intense stuff. They're coming from the mayor of Tampa, Ryan and I saw.
It difficult for everybody to evacuate. But yeah, go ahead, Well that's always.
Going to say.
The problem with this is that people think you can just wave a magic wand and you're like, oh, evacuation is happening. But like I said, especially lower income folks, it's not a lot of this during Katrina. People who don't have a lot of money. Gas obviously right now is scarce, commodities. I understand a traffic as well as a problem. A lot of these hotel rooms are sold out. Many people are going to have to get on the road for eight to ten hours just to be able
to make it to a metro area. I know it's heard some stories in my own personal life. People multiple flights canceled.
Out of that area.
They're gonna have to drive somewhere else just to try and be able to get on a flight so they have somewhere to go. Thousands of dollars out of pocket costs obviously that they're incurring some people, you know, some people are four dogs or whatever. Just the story this morning. People who they don't know what to do, they don't have any money, and they really feel helpless in this. So that is perhaps the most devastating part out of this.
People who feel who are elderly, you know a lot of pensioners, people who live down there on a fixed income, and so having to flex in a disaster time like this is a lot of really scary and you only have forty eight hours or seventy two hours or whatever to repair.
It's just not a lot of time. It's not a lot of a.
Lot of those people have difficulty driving to the grocery store and back go right driving like fifteen hours with no place to go. That's the hard part, especially for people who can't afford these price gouging that's going on when it comes either to gas or if you can eventually find a place to stay. But I would say
if you're in that zone, it is worth it. Like whatever whatever the risks are that you have to take to evacuate, like take those risks rather than thinking, you know what, I can actually probably hunker down and get through this. And psychologically it's so difficult because your home, your home is your sanctuary. It's a place that feels safe. It's the place where you want to go to when you're in danger. And so to be told no, actually you need to get out of there, it's there's a
psychological barrier that you have to climb over. But you but like that, and then the mayor is trying to give you that push over the top. If you stay in these flood evacuation zones h a higher zone that is an evacuation zone, you're very likely going to die, but at least you're not going to definitely die because of the flooding. But in the lower zones it's gonna be how honor I.
Was looking at photos of like Tampa Bay Hospital and others that are you know, right on sea level, right by the ocean with an eight to twelve feet storm search it just looks critical care there. Yeah, let's right, people are in critical care. I mean it look Florida. Obviously, the authorities there they seem to know what they're doing. They're trying their best with the evacuation order. The government
actually seems like it's all in Ronda Santa. There was some like whatever controversy where he allegedly declined a phone call from Kamala Harris. He's denying that, but he did say, look, the Biden administration has given me all the resources that I need, and so we'll watch this very closely. October is hurricane season. Obviously in the US we have a long history of hurricanes. You know, right before the election, there will be a lot of you know, there will be a lot of eyeballs on Florida.
As they have to rebuild. We have to look at the disaster.
Perhaps supplementals Congressman to come back into town. But you know, right now in the interim, just for everybody there, like I said, we have a large audience in Florida, please stay safe, Please heed local evacuation orders, especially with the devastation that this projection of what the storm is. Even if storm does slow down as I understand it, you know, just making landfall a category four is still not a joke.
And with the storm surge alone, that can cause a significant amount of devastation, So really thinking about everybody in Florida. Like I said, for our audience, please heed the advice of your local evacuation authorities and orders. Let's go to the next part and just give them a political insight. Insight I think also into what the American political establishment, that the propriety care about. Yeah, the depravity of our leaders,
what their real priorities are. And I talked a little bit about this yesterday, but I just had to play it in the context of what we're looking at.
Here.
Here is Senator Lindsey Graham talking about how, yeah, the flooding in North and South Carolina, Yeah, it was definitely bad.
But we got to think about Israel right now. Let's take a listen.
You can think, you know, I've been going all over South Carolina like most people hadn't slept much.
But look what's going on to Israel.
Our friends in Israel surrounded by people that want to kill them, destroy them, a second Holocaust in the making. And Biden says, be proportional. What is the proportional response that people want to.
Kill you and your family.
They're running out of ammunition in Israel. We have to help our friends to keep the war over there from coming here.
I've been all over South Carolina.
But kay, you just think about Israel and our friends in Israel. I mean, look, that is that's everything for me. And look, there's been a lot of conversation that I've seen online and the people are always attacked. They're like, oh, talking about FEMA resources where they've.
Gone in the past.
But the one way I think people have America dead to rights is look at all this money that we freely without Congress, without debate, we are willing to ship overseas to fund foreign conflicts. But there are now hundreds of people who are confirmed dead from Hurricane Helen alone. Let's put this up there. Two hundred and twenty seven people have now officially been a confirmed dead from Hurricane Helene,
and the quote grim task of recovering bodies continues. Nobody knows what the final death toll from this hurricane will be. Perhaps even this hurricane will be eclipsed in terms of damage by Hurricane Milton, which we just talked about. But just consider you know that these entire communities destroyed. Was something we talked about in a previous show here about Hurricane Helene. Is that the city of Asheville was one of the most booming cities in all of North Carolina.
And we know that statistically, fifty percent of small businesses never reopen after being destroyed by a hurricanes. So that just sucks the soul out of what was a thriving tourist destination here on the East coast, actually had a lot of people who moved there from all across the country. And then we're devastated by the floods. And I can't help but think also about Tampa as well. I mean,
I personally know people just moved to Tampa. A lot of people have higher area of Florida one of the most economically dynamic in the US, not just pensioners, but a lot of younger people, families like you talked about, you want to be able to ford a home for three four hundred.
Grand something like that.
And now all of a sudden, you know, staring down the barrel of a similar situation. So when I just put those two things side by side, I'm just disgusted.
I really am.
I'm disgusted.
Did you notice that the control room trying to bail Linzi Graham out a little bit there? You know, he's because he's talking about Israel while they have in the background all of the b roll devastation from Hurricane Helene, and they very quickly get rid of that and give him just his normal background.
So it's just standard Lindsay Graham talking about how Israel' running out of ammunition. Come on Control room. You could have done the people as.
Solid there and just left the PA should have You're right, leave that split screen up for people to really get the full grasp of what's going on. But I was just thinking about how I remember in twenty twenty, I was down Panhandle driving through there, and Hurricane Michael had ripped through there two years earlier, twenty eighteen.
I remember that.
The devastation was still everywhere two years later, like things boarded up, like you know, debris on the side of homes. You could it looked like the storm had happened a month ago, but it had been two years. Like this stuff takes much longer to recover from. I think then people realize, I.
Know, you're right.
You know, I had the opportunity at some point, you know, to be able to see some tsunami devastation when I was in Asia, even years later, after the tsunami. Look, it's Asia, it's different, but I'm just you know, to your point, even years later, it's just like, wow, multiple years since that happened, and there's still a lot of
damage that's over here. And so when we're thinking here about storm surge and just coming some fifteen days or whatever after Hurricane Helen, that really is just so devastating for people down there, and just highlights about let's see what the nation conversation is like, you know after this, where we were going to have American already Americans are in need, these people who have been devastated just in having to evacuate, and now these victims of the hurricane
in Hurricane Helena and in North Carolina potentially you know, there's some three some million people or whatever who live in the Tampa metro area.
That's a lot of people.
Huge, yeah, massive, I mean, and then when we consider the impact on their lives, those businesses, all the people that are down there, you know, I would hope that the US government and others and can actually focus its attention on our own citizens.
But I'm not going to hold my breath.
I'm definitely not going to hold my breath, not only because you would think in an election year, that's the time when you most want to pay attention to your own citizens and to highlight to others what you know. The government's entire purpose is if not for literally for disaster purposes, but instead all attention is on funding as much war in the Middle East or in Ukraine as
there is possible. It's like in Ukraine, whenever you know, a Russian facility takes out an energy you know, whatever facility or whatever.
All there's funny of American dollars.
I remember reading a story about how the United States is funding a small yarn saleswoman in Ukraine to prop up civil society, and I'm like, oh, it would be nice maybe if you run a yarn store in Asheville, North Carolina, if you had a similar program, that'll cut you a check basically, no questions asked.
And perhaps now in Tampa.
So yeah, I'm just genuinely disgusted by the attitude around this entire thing.
Let's go to the next part.
We'll talk about Kamala Harris and this interview that she gave on sixty minutes.
There is a lot to say here.
I think we'll focus first on this the answer about changing position.
This is where it's funny.
Because it even took a couple months, right even CNN, Right even CNN and Dana Bash In the most like tongue bathing interview by a national news host, she asked, in most tepid way possible, like.
Well, you know some people's gus positions, and you know, how do you square that?
And you would think, you know, considering how awful that answer was, that you may change your tune. Well, it turns out it hasn't changed all that much, and if anything, frankly, the answer has gotten worse.
Let's take a listen.
You're for medicare for all. Now, You're not so many that people don't truly know what you believe or what you stand for. And I know you've heard that.
In the last four years, I have been Vice president of the United States, and I have been traveling our country, and I have been listening to folks and seeking what is possible in terms of common ground.
I believe in building consensus.
We are diverse people geographically regionally in terms of where we are in our backgrounds, and what the American people do want is that we have leaders who can build consents where we can figure out compromise and understand it's not a bad thing as long as you don't compromise your.
Values to find common sense solutions. And that has been my approach.
That has been my approach. She basically said, well, I've traveled.
A lot and heard from other people, and.
Look, I've even said this, Crystal disagrees with me. I'm curious what you think. I think at a certain point, you need to just own up and be like, look, I said a lot of things. It's clearly the American people don't agree with me. I want to be president. I'm a consensus builder, but a lot of this is all like, oh, well my values haven't changed, and I'm about you never come out and actually just say it.
So I'm curious what you think.
Ryan the closest she ever got to that. I don't know if you saw this interview she did with Stephen Colbert where he said that was also last night.
Yeah, well this was a.
Couple of years ago, Like back in twenty twenty, after she was named vice president.
You know, he had her on and she said, well, you're vice president.
You basically called this guy a segregationist a couple months ago.
Yes, that's right. And she laughed and she said that was a debate.
Oh, that's right. That's why I remember that.
And the premise, the unspoken premise of that answer is it was a game. I was points scoring. I was just trying to get ahead in a political contest. So that's what she has to try to get across to make your point without sounding like the most cynical person ever. But Tim Walls answered it the best when I was like, well, you used to be for assault weapons, now you're against them. How did that happen while I sat with the victims of Santa Sandy Hook shooting, which means changed.
Another way of saying that is I had new information.
I had new information.
Okay.
So I think she could get away with a version of that answer if she said, look, I was running as a Democratic candidate for the nomination in twenty twenty. That was before I was president and or a vice president. And I've now seen the difficulty of governing, and so now I understand that some of that stuff, while it might be amazing and wonderful, we're just not going to be able to get it done. But I'd still love to see it in a world where it was possible.
But then she's stuck again because well that doesn't answer your immigration question.
How'd you go from because that is.
A world of possible, that's executive orders, that's executive action. So yeah, I mean she got to Look, I'm a politician. I just want to be president.
And we all know this. Speaking of word salad. We saw this also on how are you going to avoid an all out regional war?
Let's take a lesson.
The events of the past few weeks have pushed us to the brink, if not into an all out regional war in the Middle East. What can the US do at this point to stop this from spinning out of control?
Well, let's start with October seven. Twelve hundred people were massacred. Two hundred and fifty hostages were taken, including Americans. Women were brutally raped. And as I said, then, I maintain Israel has a right to defend itself. We would and how it does so matters. Far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. This war has to.
End, Okay, So what does that mean exactly? How are you going to remember the question? How are you going to avoid nuclear war? October seventh was really bad? Well, that wasn't the question.
That you were asked.
You were asked about how are you going to prevent a nuclear war? And then eventually, oh, the war has to end. But when you say, and you lead with but October seventh was so horrible, what are you saying?
You're like, well, maybe I do.
Support a little bit of a regional war. And there's an answer that we're going to get to in a little bit. It deserves its own block about who she thinks in America's greatest adversary is where maybe she does. Maybe she's just being authentic and honest. She's like, yeah, I think a war with Iran is a good thing.
She has this segment memorized very clearly, like should we have heard her say this line of precise words so many times in the month that she's been running, Like I can almost recite it at this point.
Now, let's start with October seventh.
Twelve hundred people massacre, two hundred and fifty people taking hostage, including Americans, brutally raped.
It's always quote brutally raped. And Israel has a right to defend itself. We would defend ourselves.
I said it, then I'll say it again, and then she does her pivot where her advisors are like, you have to now give something to the side of the people who think that this is horrific, and so then she says, but how it does so matter? Yes, and then she adds, far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. And then finally another non sequitor, this war has to end, as if it's just going to end on its own, or yeah, who's going to just decide to end it at some point?
Going what's going on here?
I think is that the reason that Israel has no day after plan is that they have never had to have one. They've always just pushed as far as they possibly can. And then the Americans tug the leash and say, okay that Biden picks up the phone, Reagan picks up the phone, whoever, and says it's over.
This is done.
You see ceasefire, We're moving on, and so Israel waiting for that to happen, and it's just not happening. So they're like, as long as you keep filling up our AMMO dumps, we're going to keep unleashing that, right.
And then just again on the look, We'll just continue in this because I just think in every single one of these it is so calibrated.
And this isn't about me.
This is about the fact that there is a lot of dreams of polling data. That's still the number one hang up that people have about Kama Love. They're like, yeah, I think you did better in the debate, but what do you really stand for?
What are you going to do? Do you? Are you a shape shifter? Are you a chameleon?
There are actually a sizeable part of the electorate believes that she is too liberal compared to Trump being quote too conservative, and on the issue of the border, that's perhaps no more where she is least less out of step with the overall American public. So here she is now being pressed on a lot of immigration flip flops by this administration.
Let's take a lesson.
You recently visited the southern border and embraced President Biden's recent crackdown on asylum seekers, and that crackdown produced an almost immediate and dramatic decrease in the number of border crossings. If that's the right answer, now, why didn't your administration take those steps? In twenty twenty one.
The first bill we've proposed to Congress was to fix our broken immigration system. Knowing that if you want to actually fix it, we need Congress to act, it was not taken up. Fast forward to a moment when a bipartisan group of members of the United States Senate, including one of the most conservative members of the United States Senate, got together came up with a border security bill. Well, guess what happened. Donald Trump got word that this bill was afoot and could be passed, and he wants to
run on a problem instead of fixing a problem. So he told his buddies in Congress, kill the bill, don't let it move forward.
But I've been covering the border for years, and so I know this is not a problem that started with your administration, correct, But there was an historic flood of undocumented immigrants coming across the border the first three years of your administration. As a matter of fact, arrivals quadrupled from the last year of President Trump. Was it a mistake to loosen the immigration policies as much as you did.
It's a long standing problem and solutions are at hand, and from day one, literally we have been offering solutions.
What I was asking was, was it a mistake to kind of allow that flood to happen in the first place.
I think the policies that we have been proposing are about fixing a problem, not promoting a problem.
Okay, but the numbers did quadruple, and.
The numbers today because of what we have done, we have cut the flow of illegal immigration by half, which we have cut the flow of fentanel by half. But we need Congress to be able to act to actually fix the problem.
See I love that clip because anytime he talks about any executive action it's a longstanding problem. Then anytime that there has been a reduction as a result of reverse of previous executive action, then you're taking credit for it. Well, which one is it? You know, what is the causal link between all of that? And again what I come through with a lot of that, and I care a
lot about the border istion and immigration, et cetera. So I am trying to take my hat off and look at this from the swing state voter, somebody who is looking at this issue and like, hey, how are you thinking about this? I don't think there's a coherence to this.
Now.
Everyone be like, oh, but Trump, there's no coherence now. Actually, though, if you look in the rambling and all that there is a pretty consistent through line about what.
Donald trum immigration about immigration.
Yeah, other issues I think are not fairly criticized, but on that, you know, and that one cares people care a lot about. I don't see that in this at all. It's just a complete muddle. And actually think that's the through line of all three of these things that we just took a look at it. It's like, what do you actually believe? What are you going to do? And in every single one it was.
A flub and this one she's just completely screwed by the trajectory of the Democratic Party over the last five years, there's probably been no issue on which they have swung this musk exactly. In the twenty and twenty tens, they were actually fairly tough on immigration. They like they torpedoed for politically they were, but they also torpedoed for political reason as a comprehensive bill because they wanted to like make Republicans out to be the party of nativists. Obama
was dubbed the deporter in chief by immigration groups. He Obama had kids in cages in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and twenty sixteen, like this was not an open border, humane immigration policy coming from Obama. Then Trump comes in with his nativist rhetoric and Stephen Miller and all these guys. So they so Democrats then all of a sudden put up signs, you know, in every front yard across America that says, you know, immigrants are welcome and that you
know this, that were a nation of immigrants. And so they went from fairly moderate to pretty far to the left historically speaking for Democrats. And then the second that Biden gets into office and you have Title forty two and you have the end of the kind of COVID era policies, and you have surge at the border. They when that becomes a political problem, they swing way to
the right. So you're asking asking any politician to defend that whiplash from you know, center to left to right is going to be impossible when you have kind of executive action at your fingertips that not only can you take.
But you did take.
So if they had never swung to the right on immigration, she would have a much better answer for that question. We're consistently we support we're pro immigrant, like we believe that we are a nation of immigrants and that immigrants strengthen our country. Democrats decided they're not going to be that party. And when they abandon it, Democrats as a voting block, as a as a public also abandon it. And so now support for immigrants is that like twenty percent or something.
So I don't know.
I know this is a convenient leftist narrative, but I still think there's a reality issue. You know, have tens of millions more people who are here illegally under that administration. In the reality people woke up and this whole like, it's not about the philosophy of immigrants, like, well, what type to what system people want to order? The disorder of it is, frankly, what changed.
The status quo? The real problem far more than any change in position.
And maybe we agree with this, I don't know.
The real problem here was the end of the guest worker program, Like I don't agree with that.
What the can take you now?
You need?
We don't have enough American workers, especially like to do all the rebuilding that's going to be necessary in Tennessee, in North Carolina and Florida. In the eighties, we ended our guest worker programs. We had this idea that people all everyone in the world just wants to live here, and that they don't actually want to live in Mexico
or El Salvador, Nicaragua or wherever they're from. But in fact their actual preference is if they could come here for four or five months, make enough money to send back to their family, and then go home to their families and live where they're from. That's actually their preference. A well regulated guest worker program where people are protected, given labor protections, treated fairly, but able to come and go, creates a much more rational system in a world where
you have this much inequality between two different countries. When you build a wall and you say you can no longer go back home, then they send for their families, Well then you get what we've got.
But ryan presumptive and all of this is a very very low wage, and that's part of the issue. Look, we can't get into this debate because we got our election.
Forecaster logan prices to being affordable.
Yes, I do.
I also want people to be able to pay get paid who are American citizens. It's a good wage if you're an El Salvador. But I don't care about El Salvador. El Salvador's problems and wages are its own problems. And by the way, they fix a lot of those problems by locking up every single one of their gang members.
But that's a separate issue. Like I said, our election forecasters here.
Otherwise we would go out of the next thirty minutes, Logan Phillips.
Let's get them in here.
Very excited to be joined now by Logan Phillips, our partner here race to the White House for election forecast. As a reminder, some of this will be behind the paywall up until later, so Breakingpoints dot Com you can take advantage with BP twenty twenty four if you want that discount. But let's start with something that really caught our attention here. Logan, which is poly Market, the largest betting place for the election, saw a significant swing in
odds towards Donald Trump yesterday. Let's put that up on the screen. Trump as of yesterday was leading some eight point six percent in the odds. That was actually his biggest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race. I want to ask you to appine on betting, and we are not giving any financial advice here on the show. How does that comport with your forecast is at overly Rosie.
How do you look at it?
Well, a few years ago people were saying that maybe this is going to be the most predictive way to understand what's going to happen in elections, because you know, people are going to care a lot about where they put their money. Yes, I think twenty twenty two prove that's not necessarily the case. I think what it shows is what the people that choose to bet on politics will think about the election.
Oh I like that.
Yeah, And the problem is for us to say exactly who that's going to be. I think it tends to lean right, specifically college educated right, more establishment. So you're going to see way higher odds from Rod DeSantis than made sense back in the GOP primary.
Oh interesting, I didn't know that, Okay.
And higher odds for Republicans.
Now, has anybody pulled that because you could that's an answerable question.
Well, you're the problem here is he's all crypto.
So it's like going to I mean, listen, Polypark is not illegal technically in America, so you know you need a VPM.
I'm not going to get any instructions, but.
Just in terms of the way that it all gets done, it's not all that easy for the general public. But that's a really interesting point. Can you talk more about twenty twenty two. What were some of the observations you saw ahead of that.
Yeah, so going into twenty twenty two, the odds that this might have something too it seems higher. But if all the polls are missing to the left, that means anything that's missing to the right is going to be look better.
Than it might actually be as an indicator.
So in twenty twenty two, they have the narrative overrated Republicans and.
They overrated them significantly more.
And so all of these rate senate races, people thought they on their thought probablyns were going to win that they didn't win, right, and it just showed, Yeah, this is an imperfect measure.
That's a great that's a fantastic point, especially with the more recency of political betting markets and this one and too. And we shouldn't forget. You know, it's a billion dollar market, so it sounds like a lot. It's actually not that big if you think about the stock market anything else with corrective forces, and everybody knows even though those are not all that accurate. Let's go to the next one because that was on Pennsylvania. This was another one where
I wanted your input. They're showing a fifty six forty four spread towards Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania. Points when Yeah, in the betting market. So just from a polling level, where does Pennsylvania actually stand right.
Now, it's lightly favoring Harris, I would say about sixty percent chants in my model most about the same. There definitely wasn't anything in the last week. I think in my model, the polls got a little better. I've added the New York Time ones.
Yeah, better for Harris.
No, they got a little better for Trump for post debate thing faded. But we're talking to my model at least from like, oh, Harris had a fifty nine to sixty percent chance to win, now it's fifty seven.
So that's a very small reduction.
Yeah, it's very very small. You just mentioned there the New York Times polls. It just came out this morning, and perhaps will delve into a little bit more about, you know, just to get your general analysis. I think what we have from them is likely voters. They show Kamala with forty nine percent, Donald Trump at forty six percent.
This is likely voters at the national level. Is that enough of a national popular vote lead to be able to win the election, because you can win the popular vote, as we all know, and still lose the electoral college.
Well, I was just reading Nick Cohen's result in my uber over here this okay thing, and you know, he makes the argument, which I tend to agree with, that the poll suggests Harris is underperforming a bit in some of the blue states like New York, perhaps is underperforming
in Florida as well. At least that's what their poll show, even though others don'teah, And so she might have an electoral college advantage because she appears, as Democrats did, to be gaining in places like North Carolina Pennsylvania, at least a.
Relative to where the popular vote was.
Yeah.
So, I mean we saw that in twenty twenty two. If you had the popular vote tied like as Democrats doing slightly better, and you just look at the House vote, they would have won enough to easily win the electoral college. I believe that would have even included North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada. Now, yeah, doesn't appears strong this cycle as it did in twenty twenty two, but it looks notably better than it did in twenty twenty and twenty six, and a little bit
better than sixteen. Now, well that happened in reality, we don't know, but the two metrics we can look at twenty twenty two in the current polling suggests that's the case.
So let's talk about that. So you talked about Florida. There they show Trump up by some thirteen points. That actually fits with something that we really really wanted to talk to you about, which is this bet that Nate Silver has made.
Guys, let's put that up on the screen please. That's C three.
So Keith for boy, he's a billionaire down in the state of Florida. He bet Nate Silver one hundred grand that Trump. So Nate said, how much more are you willing to bet on a Trump plus eight point spread in Florida? Keith says one hundred thousand dollars. Nate says, drop a contract and let's do it. So would you have taken that action? And keep in mind, this is before the New York Times poll that shows Trump up by thirteen points.
What do you think?
Why is bet or not.
Well, it's not a bet.
I would have take it.
I think part of that might have to do with the fact that it reached the way as might be doing fairly well, but it's not too enough. Well, Nate's silver, So I don't know if I have the hundred kaling around for this bet.
Okay, let's say you had ten million dollars.
Ten million dollars, so I love this question. Yeah, let's make this a.
Thing, all right, ten million?
So what is that one percent of your network or something?
Said?
I would have made it the time Eates Silver made it. Okay, all right, I still think it's most likely going to be under eight. Yeah, this New York Times pol is a giant outlier, and to be fair, for most of the cycle, New York Times has been the outlier. Now, I don't want to be, you know, being the same dump too much because I've said this before in the show. They're an amazing poster, but they also have been sistently missing.
To the right.
So most likely then reality the miss to the right unless they're seeing something everyone else is.
Editorially, let's just make kiss people are like, wait, your Times to the right, how does that work? We're not talking about editorial, like they have a balance. You're talking specifically about their polls.
Just the pulling pulling has missed.
It's been too favorable for Republicans over the years, just this.
Year, and I'm not even sure if it's wrong.
It just probably is because all the polls combined are of a lot more than New York Times as great as the New York Times polling record is right, So they're clearly seeing an electorate that's a lot more favorable to Trump. Their read on Florida is that the state has shifted since COVID measurably, which is biable that people just decided to move there who wanted to escape regulations.
In general, people have been moving. You know, there's immigration that can move a state left, and there's also migration that can move a state left and right, and in Florida's case, the immigration from Cuba can also move.
It right as well.
Rightly, good point.
So we don't really know yet for Florida which one it's going to be.
I think it's possible posters, if this is actually happening, might underrat it because sort of cheap shortcut for posters sometimes is to say, hey, let's find an elector and ask them how they voted in twenty twenty and we're going to have the elector look be reflective of what happened in twenty twenty.
So it's an our.
Plus three state. We'll show it R plus three.
Now if the cuff I don't remember exactly how Florida voted to the decimal point or anything, but it definitely appeared in twenty twenty two to move to the right. And so if that is a result of a different voter base, then yeah, some of these posters might be underrating Trump there.
Now, Now, how do so North Carolina and Florida are well. North Carolina was devastated by a hurricane, Florida's about to be devastated by a hurricane. Twenty years ago, when Republicans were the party of the upper middle class, the people who had their ducks in a row, had their IDs out, had been voting at the same polling location for decades because they'd owned their home for thirty years. At this point, like they were the ones that would benefit in an
unstable environment. That's why today, like at the time, polls of likely voters benefited Democrats, whereas registered voters voted Democrats. Likely voters benefited Republicans because they were more likely to go out to vote. From that, you saw these like voter restriction idea, et cetera, et cetera. Now that's flipped. You've got a lot of working class support for Republicans. They're more itinerant voters, less likely necessarily to show up
in a difficult circumstance. Florida, New North Carolina have extremely difficult circumstances when it comes to voting. So who is that going to help Democrats who are more they were now now the party of the upper middle class, who were kind of know where.
Their ideas, know where their voting location is, et cetera.
What I mean, it's completely unpredictable. But what would you guess if you had to at this point. That's such a tough question. It's entirely possible.
I would also say, though, that part of this is how the government responds. Now North Carolina GOP, more so than most parties are in control of the state, have been one to play some electoral games to get advantages,
like redrawing the maps. But if they're going to do whatever they can and get their voters exactly what they need to be able to vote, So I think you'll see you some martial effort on by the state to ensure that doesn't happen, at least in more of the white working class areas they might happen across the board. I don't want to accuse someone of something they haven't done yet, right, so that might mitigate it to a degree, I think above all else, though, it's going to be
more of a sentiment effect. And we don't know how voters are going to view the response by these politicians. You know, on average, they're going to be upset. And here's where I'm concerned to a degree, right, because when ad political incentives get in the way of what needs to happen, that's where there's some danger. I'm worried about the House not giving the funding needed to have a good response here because making the Biden Harris administration look
bad might be worth it for them. I'm not saying that's true for most Republicans, but given the way the House usually works is that they need the majority of the majority to agree, or you need to outright majority of House members to agree, and you only have like six to spare, and there's way more than six who are willing to play those types of games.
That's what you also want in that moment is a leader who can command the respect of the entire thing.
Who can you know, Yeah, do we have that?
I don't know.
Eric.
Let's let's move on to the Senate actually, because on the state level you're getting to something that's really important. As a reminder, this is going behind the paywall guys, and you'll be able to watch it later, but for our premium subscribers they can continue watching.
It's going to be good. Thanks. It is great to better subscribe. Thank you, Mian.
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