10/3/24: Israel Threatens Iran Regime Change, 8 IDF KIA In Lebanon, Helene Survivors Speak Out, Polls Reveal Debate Winner, CNN Stunned By Trump Worker Support, CBS Ambushes Ta-Nehisi Coates

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What do we have, Crystal.

Indeed, we do a lot to get to this morning, so we have more indications about how Israel might respond to those Iranian attacks.

Will break that down.

We're also taking a look at survivors of Hurricane Helen who are speaking out now, and also what it's going to take to rebuild in that area, if it's even really possible, so we'll show you some extraordinary video from there. We also have the polls post debate about who the people thought one it's actually it's kind of interesting, so we'll get into that. We'll also show you what the polls are saying in general, the state of the race, and some troubling indicators on the Kamala Harris side about

We're very excited to talk to her. Before we get to that, we've got a discount going on right now. You want to take advantage of let's put that on the screen BP twenty twenty four at Breakingpoints dot com for fifteen dollars off our premium memberships. You get exclusive access to some of our election content, but you also get to support the show and participate in our exclusive of AMAS that happened weekly, So go ahead and take

Nobody really knows.

Right, Yeah, that's exactly right. Let's put this up on the screen. So of course we covered extensively on Debate night exactly how we got to this place of you know, really standing on the brink of a massive regional war that the US would undoubtedly get pulled into. The latest indications of Israel they're saying they're mulling attacks on Iranian oil rigs, nuclear sites as well in response to missile attack that would be you know, an extraordinary provocation.

Let me just read from this article.

This is was mostly reported out by Axios and is rewritten up here in Times of Israel. Israel may respond to Ron's major Tuesday ballistic missile attack striking strategic infrastructure such as gas or oil rigs that would obviously be devastating to the Iranian economy, or by directly targeting Iran's nuclear sites. Media reports that on Wednesday, siting Israeli officials, targeted assassinations and attacks on Iran's air defense systems are

Quote.

We have a big question mark about how the Iranians are going to respond to an attack, but we take into consideration the possibility they would go all in, which will be a whole different ballgame. The US on Wednesday signaling a willingness to support Israel in a potential response, with the White House promising quote severe consequences for the attack and saying it will work with Israel to make

Arms that were sort of defending it, or they were its insurance policy against an Israeli strike, and that's Hisbala and Hamas. But those two arms are temporarily paralyzed, so it's like a boxer out in the ring without arms for the next few minutes. Now is the time that we can attack because Iran is fully vulnerable, the Islamic Republic of Iran. It's time to hit destroy the nuclear program and finally allow the Iranian people to rise up.

I just want to be precise, Prime Minister.

You want Israeli airstrikes to blow up Aron's nuclear facilities and its energy facilities, all the oil wells and the oil related industry that is the main part of the Iranian economy.

That's correct.

Quite extraordinary comments there I mean, I just as a note I think is actually anti Semitic to conflate the entire Jewish people with this very belligerent foreign policy. It's also quite extraordinary to frame it as a gift to the Iranian people striking their strategic oil and nuclear sites. But that is the type of tone and rhetoric that's coming out of it.

If you want to give them that gift, you're welcome to give it to them all by yourself. But we all know that that's not going to happen.

You know.

I recently just came across fantastic military analysts just put this out.

The number of missiles that we.

Fired on a couple of days ago to defend Israel was twelve, so roughly all of those allegedly made contact. That is the amount of missiles. It takes an entire year for US facilities to crank out, So we invested an entire year's worth of missile production in a single night to defend Israel. Now imagine this time's fifty times one hundred.

This is part of why I'm so.

Afraid here is because the US is green lighting these strikes potentially on nuclear sites or on energy and oil facilities. The oil facilities may actually be more dangerous because the current analysis that's coming out of Sentcom and others is that the likely Iranian response will not be to retaliate just against Israel, but will be specifically to retaliate against US and Western oil refineries and oil tankers in the region, which would of course immediately draw the United States into

So when we combine that whole picture, it is clear that if Israel actually.

Had to bear one hundred percent cost of its own actions, like in the first time in April after it destroyed that Iranian embassy and this time around, that they would never be in a position where a tiny nation of ten million can consider regime change on a tens of millions country. Now you know, people always love to say this. It's like, oh, it's not representative the people.

I don't know.

You know, it's one of those where it stood the test of time since the nineteen seventies.

Clearly they're talking about the Iranian government.

There's common cope in America to always be like, oh, the Venezuelan government doesn't represent the people or the Iranian people. And you know, maybe, like especially with all these legs, but as with all things, it's complicated.

Are we going to say that they have no democratic support?

Are we going to say that they have no representative of the people, And especially if you try and foist a new regime on them, how do you think that's going to go?

You know, it's one of those where how it's gotten in the past, that's my times.

So, you know, we have fantasies in America. Everybody's just like us, Oh, the Iraqis just want representative democracy. It's like, no, actually, you know, it's complicated, and especially when you put that into practice, they end up slaughtering each other. So it's one of those where are we really better off, you know, replacing it. What do we know that comes next? Nobody knows. Nobody knows the answer to that question. We always talk

They probably do know this.

It's just one of those where they also know that at the end of the day, big brother America will come in to save their ass. And ultimately, if we have to do have to quote unquote save them, it will be with our own military force, our own ground forces that will get drawn into this and we will be the one sucked in for another twenty five years. Iran would make Iraq look like a cakewalk, and Iraq was a disaster. You don't have to take my word for it, take any war planner or others who has

It was only through the nuclear deal and others that were.

Able to avoid that, but we came this close, you know, to getting back back into war that time, and not a lot of people remember. So this is It's terrifying.

It really is.

Yeah, it absolutely is, especially when you look at I mean, you've got a president who is adult, who knows how engaged he is or not. I'm not sure whether it would be better or worse if he was able and engaged because his lockstep bear hug commitment to whatever Israel wants to do, specifically whatever BB Netna who wants to do. Ultimately, I might complain a little bit, but I'm going to back him up. Has been an utter disaster. This is the one outcome that they have asserted from the beginning

When have we heard that before?

They think it's going to be different somehow this time around. And you know, with regards to the Iranian saying, hey, you know, we think US oil assets and other strategic assets in the region are fair game. Who can blame them for saying that we're an integral part of this.

Of course we are.

I mean, we directly involved in the Israeli response to the Iranian attack. We've been sharing intelligence with them. We enable this entire situation. Sager is one hundred percent correct. If the Israelis knew they had to bear alone the cost of their continued provocations and escalations. There's no way that they continue in this direction. But they know that we will back them up no matter what. Joe Biden was asked about the potential targeting by Israel of Ronnie

One asked you what.

The talk one around?

Answer is no and Della, I think there's state.

Will be discussion with the Israeli is what.

We're going to do.

But they all seven of us agree if they were right to respond, if they should respond.

So just to be clear for people who struggled to hear that, he was asked directly, does he support an Israeli attack on Iron's nuclear sites?

He says no.

He goes on to say they have a right to respond, but they should respond proportionally. I mean, I play you this because he is the American President.

But.

Do his words matter at all? Doesn't seem to doesn't seem like they're willing to use any sort of leverage in order to enforce the direction that the US wants things to go in, or at least that they pretend that they want to go in. So these words, even though they're important because they're the US president's why playing for you, they're also sort of irrelevant and meaningless, given how incredibly impotent.

Here, And you could go down that path and still get us into a war, which is okay, fine, don't strike the nuclear site, you know, you just take out a few oil refiners.

Yeah, just.

A small little tap on the sole source of income for the Iranian regime. That's part of the problem is that, you know, even if you rule out something like the nuclear strike, it doesn't mean that even strikes in the middle of Tehran would in itself invite major retaliation against the US. Not to mention, you know, we have tens of thousands now of troops who aren't in the region who are at risk from the hoopies from in Iraq,

That tell you about the future?

Iran has one of the largest ballistical misslic stocks on Earth, and they're very relatively cheap to manufacture. What you saw was only two hundred. They have thousands that they could fire, and those two hundred were able to overwhelm the Arrow three system. So if there were thousands, do you have any doubt now that this would not immediately cripple at least some of the IDF and of their air force.

I'm like, okay, but it did destroy the airfield.

And the point is that the US military has capability to do that if they want to. So if you're watching this just from a pure military view of the missile's ability to make contact with those airbases, you can't call it a failure. And yet, you know how many people are gonna see this segment or read the follow up news which admits that bypassing military sensors that there was damage almost nobody.

It's crazy.

You know.

Glenn was opining on this on Twitter, as he does, and he made a point that I think is disturbing but important one which is basically like, because of the savage savagery with which Israel has conducted itself in Gaza and now in Lebanon and also in the West Bank, the view from the West is now like, oh, if you didn't murder a bunch of civilians and take out hospitals and schools and aid agencies, then it wasn't a success.

To that assassination attempt.

You know, it kind of tracks with also the fact that they assassinated Hania, the leader of Hamas, at a time when it still appeared there might be a possibility of a broader cease fire involving you know, Gaza strip and Hamas as well. So I mean that tells you everything you need to know about Bibna. Who's desire to coexist, desire to get to some sort of a diplomatic resolution.

He is not interested in that. He's never been interested in that.

Every time there's been a possibility of it, he has been I'm not going to say that.

Hamas wasn't a roadblock two.

At times he has been the primary impediment the entire time because his personal political interests and ideological interests are towards all out consistent war. So you know, as this as we're watching what's happening in Iran unfold, it's also important to keep an eye on what's happening in Lebanon. There were strikes over night in Beirut that killed dozens of individuals.

Early indications are.

And Israeli soldiers have begun that ground invasion, you know, with some limited incursions into Lebanon. Of course, you know, we wouldn't feel they were very limited if there was any sort of incursion into our borders, So let's keep.

That in mind.

But there is has already been a cost to the IDF in terms of this ground invasion in Lebanon.

We can take a look at these images of.

Israeli soldiers being evacuated here who had either been wounded or now we know that at least eight were killed in clashes with Hesbela here in southern Lebanon. So what you see on your screen is, you know, helicopters landing and people being carried down on stretchers. IDF soldiers being carried down on stretchers. So Hesbela certainly, I don't think

You still have.

Israel bombing Bayrout, killing people in Beirut, you have this ground invasion going forward, which again the US greenlit and actively encouraged, and you have us all in wait and see mode about just how large a provocation and an escalation we will get from Israel visa the Iran.

Yeah, let's put the next one up there, because this is important. It's a decent analysis, and it actually shows this was the first time, actually that Israel and Hezbola came into direct fighting in Hesbola, and I think we should learn something from the fact that almost immediately, according to Israel, all eight people were killed, you know, in an ambush. This illustrates that in the actual ground war, the IDF has not performed all that well. They've been

Just giving it to them themselves.

So the fact that you had these eight people from the IDEF who were already killed just demonstrates like what a real invasion would look like. If anything, it's probably why they almost immediately started retaliate bombing in Southern Bay Route. But the more that their troops want to create some sort of so called buffer zone you know, in the country, they're going to pay for it in blood. And I think that's really what this underscoore or this is not Hamas.

You special forces exactly.

So it will tell you when you you know, when's the last time of America lost eight people in eight people from special forces. It doesn't happen all that often in an actual ground invasion, you know, especially maybe if they're shot down a helicopter or something. But it just demonstrates that the parody of the fighting force is much higher, and you should be afraid because this would also cause significant problems in Israel. Have hundreds, you know, thousands of

I just talked about.

No doubt about it, so you know, I mean, there's a lot of natural support for this program there. Obviously there have been protests about wanting a deal in order to bring the hostages home, which but you know, in terms of the hawkishness, the attacks on Hezbla, as far as I can tell, in terms of the public polling, this is widely supported across.

The Israeli political spectrum.

And you know, Sager, you made this point when we were talking on debate night, like where's all the rhetoric about the hostages that's just gone gone, Like they've outlived their usefulness. Sorry for the horrible cross nature of that language. But to Bbnatan Yahoo, he doesn't care if they live or die, does not care. In fact, for him, may be more convenient if they end up dying, because then they can't come back and talk about the way that

Hey how about that?

Remember when that was when you pretended like that was a key priority.

Not so much anymore.

And you know, for the broader long term outlook for Israel, what does this look like for them? Their credit rating was downgraded again purportedly the goal of this, these attacks in Beirut and this ground invasion in Lebanon is so that Israelis can return to northern Israel where they you know, have been evacuated and you know they haven't been there since post October seventh.

Well, this is no way to accomplish that.

I mean, you're just creating warhas sties, You're just creating more danger in that region. What the mayors of those towns wanted was a ceasefire deeal so that there would be you know, coexistence and at least some limited amount of peace, so that people could go home. Like there's no end in sight, there's no there's no immediate timeline for Israelis in that region to be able to return. You have enormous burdens on the workforce because of the continued call ups of reserves to go and fight on

That's a good transition to where our tax dollars should be going and where our national attention should be going. I wish that we were in hostage to a regional war in the Middle East, because we literally have hundreds of people potentially dead and tens of thousands who are now affected by the horrific Hurricane Helen in North Carolina.

Let's take a listen. We don't have any power.

We haven't had any since Friday morning. We had water, running water, but we can't drink it, and now the pressure is so low that there's no water for me out anymore.

Really, it's undescribable.

I don't know.

It just was covered in litter and trees and mud and it's stinky, and it was all the way up the street up here. It just looks like the bottom of a river.

That couple, Dylan and Larson that came across the bridge, they had a cat as well. They got they got inside to our house and we sat there for a little bit, and before we knew it, it was dire that we needed to get out, and we had gotten the cat bags ready, and you know, that's all we were worried about at the moment, is saving our animals. And we were looking around at things, and that's when I really realized that none of what we own matters right now, and our lives, their lives are cats lives.

That's all we have.

When we were going around just looking to see if anybody was okay. I drive those roads all the time, and I just couldn't even I couldn't even picture where we were anymore. And knowing that nobody is ever going to be able to live there, probably most of the people who have built their lives there aren't going to be able to finish their lives there, and it's just really horrifying.

Yeah, I mean, that's that's what it's like in North Carolina, and that's what is happening now in terms of our government response.

Don't worry.

This is a real thing. It's become a meme, but I checked into it. FEMA says you can get up to seven hundred and fifty dollars for grocery assistance if you happened to survive that. Meanwhile, we spend one hundred million dollars in a single night shooting down a bunch of missiles on Israel's behalf. So if you're a North Carolina resident, I would think about that and say, hey, you know, how exactly should US government resources be spent? On top of that, it is going to cost tens

The Biltmore Mansion etc.

But it also became like a real refuge for a lot of people all across the country who wanted someone that was cheaper.

They had a good vibe, and they enjoyed it.

This is not just Ashville, by the way, that's a huge inflow into North Carolina. Raleigh and Charlotte are two of the most dynamic cities for young people in the United States, wage wise and affordability wise. What they point out here is that the devastation has wiped out almost all the development of the last decade, to the point where if the government does not expend literally I mean billions and billions of dollars, then it's gone.

All of their hard fought resources.

The businesses I believe it had more craft breweries than any other city in the United States, is gone. The tourist destinations, all you know, mountain resorts, et cetera. And I'm not just talking about like the ability to visit. It's the fact that lots of people had built great lives in this city and they were wiped out completely. And I really do feel like America is already forgetting them. Our national politics and more is not focusing on the

There's a lot to say about this.

I mean, I actually went down to Louisiana after Katrina.

This was another life.

I worked for a federal government contractor that did like accounting systems. Since I was there for this very sort of tedious, boring reason of helping people be able to itemize some of their losses and help them figure out what they could expense and get reimbursed for from the federal government. But I'll never forget the experience of being down in that state and just the absolute devastation individual

Now, the stories of.

We just thought, you know, okay, it's a hurricane. We've seen this before in this area, let me pack a bag for the weekend, and that bag I packed for the weekend is.

Literally all I have left. You're right that, you know.

New Orleans yet they rebuilt and other you know surrounding areas Lafayette Home, et cetera. But the population did not return to New Orleans. There were many people who just left and never came back. There were many businesses that closed and never came back. There are you know, neighborhoods that never came back. And when you think about Asheville, North Carolina, which is the place I've spent some time in that it's truly one of my favorite places in

You know.

Part of what made makes Ashville have this very like special feel that a lot of people really love is that it isn't all the big chains.

It's unique. You know, there's these little you know, the little.

Coffee shop and incredible food, you know, incredible dining scene, the arts district, all of those things that made people feel like and the reality being this is a special place with things and people and places that we can't get anywhere else. And you know, I read the stats here in this article from the Wall Street Journal. They say that almost half of small businesses never reopen after

Of that it's gone. It's gone.

And you know, there's also I think part of why this doesn't get the attention anymore in the news media that Katrina got is that these, you know, extreme weather events are more and more and more common. But the chief meteorologist quoted in this Wall Street Journal piece says that the scale of the records suggests it might be one of the worst flooding disasters in US history. So you have a failed media respond, you have you know, a lack of an aggressive political response, and not to

All of us absolutely, and you know it also, I mean it's not in a cross way, but there will be just like there was with Hurricane Sandy or previous hurricanes it could have a political effect depending on how things go.

Let's put this up there on the screen.

Already, there have been quote a massive challenge for election officials in terms of just getting votes in, including mailing ballots. They say many residents have temporary already left the area because of the damaged roads, the lack of potable water. They don't know whenever they're going to return. Quote, the challenging circumstances could suppress turnout in a part of the state where almost a million people cast ballots in twenty twenty of almost six million casts statewide, So that's one

Currently, the US.

Postal Service has suspended service to one point three million North Carolinians that are in the state. So it is a logistical nightmare, you know, ahead of the election, and to say that it won't have any impact whatsoever is ridiculous. We just don't know yet what it will be. But yeah, heart goes out to these people, because what a mess. You know, both of the election people and then also those who want to vote. We all know what bureaucracy is. Like they are maybe going to try and vote wherever

Yeah, well there's a lot to say about this.

I mean, first of all, you have to think like the people that we show to, do you think that their top priority right now is like how do I vote? They're like, how do I eat? How do I survive? How do I put a roof over my head? How do I make sure that my loved ones are still alive and fine? So it's probably not top priority right now. But then there are these really key logistical issues. So this is a weird there's a sort of weird butterfly

And then you have polling locations that have been destroyed.

Then the Republican controlled state legislature actually made it more difficult last year to be able to take emergency actions like being able to change polling locations in an emergency. This is part of the like stop the steel fallout, so they specifically made it more difficult for the election board staff to take emergency actions like allowing counties to

You know, other states are affected as well.

We're focusing a lot of North Carolina, but Georgia, Florida, also South Carolina also very much affected. But this area could be the most consequential, you know, in terms of the electoral politics. And it's it's it's quite it's a disaster. I mean again, this is like the least of the concerns of the people that are there. But we would be negligent if we didn't note that this could for sure have a political impact.

Thing.

Go let's turn now to the vice presidential debate, where we have some polling in now about who won, who lost, who was more favorable, who did better on the issues. Let's put this up there on the screen from CBS News. I talked a little bit about this in our post show, but it does show the partisanship is alive and well in America. Who won the vice presidential debate forty two percent, JD. Vans forty one percent, Tim Wall seventeen percent.

It was a tie. If we continue along.

The issues, what do we see who did a better job talking about abortion? So sixty two percent of viewers said Wals did compare to Jdvans at thirty eight percent. You will note that's roughly where abortion favorability ratings and support for pro life, for pro choices healthcare fifty nine percent for Walls, and for Dvance fifty nine percent versus

Let's put the next one up.

There is just about who won the debate when you compare it to the past. So this was actually CNN's snapshot. It had Walts at forty nine and Vance at fifty one. But if you compare the Vance the Advance performance compared

And only one percent said yes, As.

We always try and tell you you're the VP debate, Unfortunately, they just don't make a big impact here.

I mean in country.

There's something interesting here.

I mean, first of all, I think people it was fifty to fifty, not just in this poll, but a lot of other polls. I think people were kind of like impressed with JD came off a lot better than he's come off and you know other instances on the campaign trail where it's just been consistently and attack dog mode. But I think they also found Tim Walls to be

So it's like, you know, people profess that they would rather have.

This more sort of like normal, more boring exchange, but then what they actually vote for and find appealing, like on some level they also want the show. So there's some internal contradictions going on.

Very astute and correct observation.

I actually said that, I was like, you know, watching that to somebody like me, I'm educated, I you know, come from an upper middle class family. I look at that, I'm like, Wow, that actually seems very attractive. You got somebody who's like decently high IQ can articulate a position that these people allegedly want you have. Tim Wall seems like a nice enough guy. I don't see anything particularly

Bush, to any so called normal politicians.

So I think this is a classic example of people who allegedly say that they want one thing.

But it's kind of like social media. If you tell.

Everybody like, oh, my social media algorithm, I don't seek out rage content.

That's for other people. It's like, well you do.

Statistically you do, and statistically it's what gets you to perform or to spend more time on the platform, so your actions are much better predictors. And I think that, Look, I don't think it's a good thing, you know, per se, but it is clear, like I think it's a reflection of what people actually want, and their voting behavior shows us this quite clearly. Trump is polarizing in a sense where people hate him love coming out to vote, and people who love him also love to come out to vote.

I mean, in some ways this is like Trump's central insight is that even though people may say like, oh, I liked the Jdvan, like the respectful tone of the debate, and I want the decorum and whatever, they also can't resist the show. And I don't put myself above this either, Like everyone's the same, was it more fun to talk about the you know, like insane cats and dogs debate.

What did I have more to say about that? Did we like, you know, did.

We have more energy around that and probably do a lot more blocks on way? Yeah, we did because it was more interesting, even though obviously the content of the policy ideas that were articulated by Walls and JD. Vance are important, although you know they're the vice president, so how important are they?

Also in the Grodthers that plays into it as well.

But Trump has this view of the world that all attention is good attention, all controversy is good like no publicity is bad policy.

That's his view of the world.

Now I think sometimes he takes that too far, like for example, the Haitian pet's thing he thought was good for him, It was not good for him.

Right, there are ways you can go too far with that.

But that was kind of his central insight into American politics is that no, you people profess that you want the decorum, you want the norms, you want the niceties and the civil discourse, but you don't. You don't you want the messy show. And that's what I'm going to give you. And you know that's been one of the

And it's the.

Bar also becomes higher and higher for what is even going to grab people's attention and have that shock value, because we're also becoming so anored to like constant shock value in our politics that things don't rate in the same way. But I just go back to you know, I don't know that Trump will win the selection. He's certainly in a position to have a shot to do it. I do think he's probably a little bit behind right now in terms of the battleground states. It's very difficult

Board as far as I know. So what does that tell you.

About what people really want in our politics? And you know, although they may profess to appreciate that sort of more dignified debate, when it comes down to it, there's a lot of people out there who are interested in the show and gravitate towards the show and like the show, and like the aggressiveness of it and the nastiness of it and.

All of that.

Yeah, look, I mean I think it's an elite thing. I genuinely do.

It's that an old In the modern two thousands the nineteen nineties, elite gatekeepers had much more control on who was able to make it into politics and not.

It was a much less democratic system.

In the modern media environment, most people can vote not only with their eyeballs, but literally with their ability to engage in the process, and then with the Internet. They chose Donald Trump. Really it was like the first like truly modern candidate in this sense, and that is why he is outperforming everybody. He even has a higher favorability

But I'm not dumb.

I know that's the base circus instinct. It's a tame tale as old as time. You go back and you read about Rome and about what got the mob all jazzed up and why they wanted to through who they eventually just started to back, and I think it does tell you something. At the same time, you know, the caution is that that circus and all that does ignite such passion in an equal number of the electorate that you do risk actually defeat at the ballot box.

And so for this, you know, we talked about that election moment.

The Kamala Harris campaign immediately ended up cutting an ad about the JD answer on whether Trump won the election.

C Five Let's take a lesson.

It's really rich for democratic leaders to say that Donald Trump is a unique threat to democracy when he peacefully gave over power.

He is still saying he didn't lose the election. I would just says to that, did he lose the twenty twenty election, Tim, I'm focused on the future. That is a damning non answer, America.

I think you've got a really clear choice of who's going to honor that democracy and who's going to honor Donald Trump. So look, I mean, we knew at the moment that that was going to be turned into it and that's exactly what's happening. We see it all around.

Those people vote in DROs.

Now.

I'm not saying that they won't vote.

It's just a lot riskier to pace your electoral ambitions amongst non voters or infrequent voters. You would always want to bank people who are like very civically engaged, and that is a message very geared towards them. The type of folks will order their mail in ballot or the type of people we covered in Northern Virginia who mile you know, will line up for a mile on day one of early voting just to make sure that they can bank their vote.

So that's the risk we'll see.

Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt that was the moment that will be most remembered from this debate. Do I think it'll be electorally consequential, Not really, because I do feel like people feel about Donald Trump however they feel at this point, you know, being reminded of stop the steal. Being reminded of January sixth isn't going to change any minds at this point. The people who are on there who are still undecided, I think, are more likely to be deciding on economic issues, bread and.

Butter issues, potentially whether we're getting.

Dragged into a war in the Middle East, you know, those sorts of things. If the port strike ends up impacting the economy, some other unforeseen thing that happens between now an election to I doubt that at this point that really moves the needle.

To me, it's more of a warning sign for uh.

If this election is close, I don't think there's any doubt that Trump is going to try to pull the same thing again. And you know, Jade Vance was put on this ticket with the assumption that he would stick with Donald Trump through all of those you know, election lies in a way that Mike Pence ultimately at the end of the day didn't. And so this was I think indication number one that he may Right then he's up there on the debate stage and he's faced directly

How he handles that moment.

Because obviously it's like it's the no one situation. Either end up with Mike pen in Mike pence Land where the Republican base hates you and once you.

Literally did, or you know, you're all in with the.

Most the greatest insanity you can possibly imagine, and then you can kiss any sort of like mainstream respectability goodbye. And the truth of the matter is that while Trump can get away with those sorts of things, no other politician has shown an ability to. So it's a it's a very you know, if they win and he'll you know, that's a different scenario, and that's very possible, right if they lose. I don't think there's any ultimate winning for JD vance out of this.

Politics is about gambles. The gamble was that Biden was president. They're easily going to cream him and it would be a very you know, easy cruise to the nomination, I guess in twenty twenty eight.

In this case, Yeah, if he loses, I've always that.

I think it's a problem just because you have to endorse stop the steal which were really put off, no matter, especially if we do it twice.

I mean, can you imagine the exhaustion.

Yeah, and if they were man like, this show doesn't go on forever and this.

Well, Trump will be around though, no matter what, until the day he dies, and so he will basically does he will demand if he doesn't run again, that at the very least, whoever his successor is, has to pick up that mantle. The question will be the ability to people pull away from it. I don't think that will exist.

Probably a good segue.

Then to the actual polls where the election is right now, all right, let's go ahead and start with the first one, which is about kind of the themes of the actual debate itself around working class support, where people are trending in more.

Harry Enton Over at CNN had a good summary of this. Let's listen, it ain't.

What it used to be.

You know.

You go back to nineteen ninety two, Bill Clinton won that union vote by thirty points. Hillary Clinton only won it by twelve points back in twenty sixteen. That was the lowest mark for a Democrat since nineteen eighty four Mondale versus Reagan. But look at where Kamala Harris is today. She's only leading.

By nine points.

That would be the worst Democratic performance in a generation, ten points off the mark of Joe Biden, who of course won four years ago, was sort of that union guy Union Joe right won it by nineteen points. She's ten points off his mark. And the worst in a generation is margin among vocational and trade school of grads and pre election pullo, Bill Clinton was leading that vote over George H. W. Bush by seven points. Look at where Donald Trump is today over Kamala Harris, a thirty

Well, that's one that it's obviously been tracked for quite a long time. But when you put it together with the Latino vote as well, those are probably the two biggest changes in modern politics. Let's put that on the screen please. This is from NBC News's poll Telemundo. This is specifically with Latinos. It shows that Republicans now have some thirty seven percent of Latinos backing the party, as opposed to just forty nine percent for the Democrats, first

And then on immigration, it's the flip side.

And I think that probably is the number one reason why you see this increase in working class support is because of the bifurcation between the parties on the issue of immigration and it being the true like irreconcilable issue for the GOP and then same for abortion amongst the Democrats. So anyway, I think I think it's fascinating just nonetheless, and no, don't let anyone tell you that American politics can't change, you know, like this this whole four year's

That's amazing.

There's a reason they called it the Obama coal Listen, Yeah, they only want to bullet.

I mean that man won.

Indiana, right like Ohio. Of course, Ohio.

I mean, yeah, it was a totally different.

Of course, he didn't win Georgia, didn't win Arizona. The map has shifted dramatically. But yeah, I mean the college divide has become a central one.

And you know, there are some things.

That really challenge my view of politics and what I would like to see because the Biden administration, if we look at the economics, they've been way better than the Obama administration, way better than in my opinion, any on the on the long term like industrial policy, labor policy, anti trust policy, they've been way better than any president

This realignment.

So as with many things, I think he's an accelerant, but he's not entirely the entirety of the story that's going on here.

Yeah, I've recommended this book a million times The Age of Acrimony, How Americans fought to fix their democracy eighteen sixty five to nineteen fifteen.

It was written just in twenty twenty two.

But the central story of post Civil War America and the reason why the Gilded Age was allowed to happen, is because the central dividing line in American politics was basically reconstruction and whether black people should have rights and Jim Crow should be allowed.

That was it, that was all we thought about.

It led to the rise of Southern populism, you know, down in the South, and the segregation and the rise of Jim Crow on top of in the North, and how much we hated the South, and at the same time, mass industrialization was allowed to happen. But the sad part is that that actually is the time when Americans were most engaged. It was not on the progressive reformer issues. That took decades of fighting basically about black rights before we ever had a conversation about it. So I think

Thirty five percent or more.

Think about what that means of shriff residence in poverty precincts have now shifted plus forty seven towards Republican. Of course, in our modern economy, that is almost entirely indicative of what educational levels look like, and that tells us that these cultural issues are the number one reason that people are either shifting right or left and is what determining them to come out and to vote. And so when you see this, I fully expect this to replicate all

These are the most dynamic areas. This is where the net population influor are all people who are college educated.

It's also why the Midwest, the Midwest is going to have a lot more working class white support, but the will only be offset potentially by upper middle class law white liberals and or seniors who are a whole other you know thing that happens in America. But the point is is that when the boomers die off, this is what America is most likely going to look like.

To me, one of the most interesting things happening in American politics, as sort of an experiment, is happening in Nebraska, where we've covered this Senate race. The Democrats just basically decided, like, we're not going to win a Senate race in Nebraska, so we're not going to even try. And there's an independent Populace Counterpoints interviewed him named Dan Osborne, who was a strike leader, like very grounded in the labor movement. Populist economics are like the.

Core of his pitch.

He wants to secure the borders. He sort of tries to be more or less neutral on cultural issues, although he is, you know, has expressed himself being pro choice, but really leans into that labor populism.

And the latest.

Poll that just came out, I don't know if a zacurate or not has them up five points. An independent Senate candidate running on like a you know, less populist agenda and minimizing some of the cultural issues is winning

For them to run.

So that's the place that I'm watching with the most fascination in terms of like, you know, democratic experiments and what could what could also kind of shake. Imagine he ends up being the fiftieth vote. Imagine how much power this union worker labor leader, strike leader. Imagine how much political power he ends up. Instead of Joe Manchin, we have Dan Osborne. Like, it can't possibly happen because it

You can always learn a lot from people like that. Even if he doesn't win. Let's see what marginie puts up. If he comes within two, that should be something that tells you. This is also why national parties need to let go of a lot of litmus tests. Who I think his name was Brian Sandebal. He was that governor of Nevada. He was pro choice and he was a Republican. He was massively popular in twenty sixteen, totally ruled out

Yeah, that's that's the thing. You get ruled out.

I also forget who the governor was of louis I think it was Louisiana.

He was a Democrat, John.

Bell l Edwards.

Yeah, yeah, John Bell Edwards. But he's pro life and so the same thing. It just gets totally ruled out. And something I always respected about Bernie is even as earliest as latest twenty seventeen, he was endorsing pro life Democrats as long as they were.

He got so much shit for it, but he was like, look, these are the only people they can win.

I would rather they win as long as you know, they need to satisfy whatever things for their constituents, but let's do it. And those people, actually, those people need to be more elevated by the National Party in my opinion, because in the future, if you want to contest more swinging areas, especially in a more fifty to fifty country where people everyone's totally divided, that's the portrait of how you actually break open, you know, something new. That's what

I don't think it works.

Yeah, but it would be pretty cool if we got a new independent in the Senate and what that would mean, and you know, if his was up for grabs, he said to counterpoints, he didn't really plan on caucusing with either party. And so one to watch for sure, one to watch going forward. All right, we wanted to bring you this really extraordinary interview between Tony easy Coats and

So he's most associated with like.

The anti racism movement, and in particular I think it's fair and I don't know if.

He would object to this character.

He's sort of a race pessimist, right, the idea like this is the founding sin and you know, this is America's legacy and this is something we can never get over, which I have disagreements with you certainly have.

I will tell you etcetera.

I despise him solely for that, regardless of what he says. Now, I blame him actually for a huge amount of the intellectual anti s racism revolution. But regardless, we can stick to this subject for right now.

So he has a new book out called The Message, and in it, I actually I've been reading it almost all the way through it, and in it he tells three different stories and the book. The central theme of the book is basically that writers have a responsibility to be to speak out for the voiceless, to tell stories in a way that matters. And so he goes to Senegal and talks about what that's like and what that experience is like for him, reflecting on his ancestry and

When I read the book, I imagine if I took your name out of it, took away the awards and the acclaim, took the cover off the book, the publishing house goes away. The content of that section would not be out of place in the backpack of an extremist. And so then I found myself wondering, why do is Tanahashi Coates, who I've known for a long time, read, has work for a long time, very talented, smart guy, leave out so much? Why leave out that Israel is

Well, I would say the perspective that you just outlined, there is no shortage of that perspective in American media.

That's the first thing I would say.

I am most concerned always with those who don't have a voice, with those who don't have the ability to talk. I have asked repeatedly in my interviews whether there is a single network, mainstream organization in America with a Palestinian American bureau chief or correspondent who actually has a voice to articulate their part.

Of the world. I've been a reporter for twenty years.

The reporters of those who believe more sympathetically about Israel and it's right to exist don't have a problem getting their voice out. But what I saw in Palestine, what I saw on the West Bank, what I saw in Haifa in Israel, what I saw in the South Heblin Hills, those were the stories that I have not heard, and those were the stories that I was most occupied with.

So that's basically the first question out of the gate. And by the way, I said, NBCs, CBS, but yeah, basically accusing him of being a terrorist effectively and the frame of the question to me is incredibly significant because it gives up the game that if he didn't have this elite insider status that he can now trade on and effectively burn because that's what he's doing right now.

That's a wild thing to say, as I literally said, I don't like Donnie Eastecast.

I genuinely Belieme.

I think he might be the godfather of a lot of the race problems that we have today. Don't That's not an exaggeration in terms of his That essay, the Case for Reparation single handedly radicalized every white girl on a college campus who eventually ended up working at the New York Times because of the BLM movement of all this other nonsense that we have today. So I again, I really do find him a villain in American politics. That said, I don't like him, and I would not

What did he say in an extremist a back that's an insane thing to say.

Especially considering that that guy didn't disclose a lot of his own biases whenever it comes to Israel.

So that's another problem I think that was going into that. Do you want to listen to the rest of it.

Yeah, I mean, I just want to respond a little bit since sure, I mean I disagree with his with the race pestimist view, but I don't know to be so like call him a villain and evil and like the problem in America is crazy.

That Essay was the godfather of the anti.

I mean, he's allowed to have perspective and what he wants.

That doesn't make him a village.

And to acknowledge the like, you know, racism in America and that this continues to be a legacy that matters today. There's not like that's a noble thing to do. So the fact he comes to different conclusion than you were, of course it's noble that he comes to a different conclusion than you or I.

I don't know, you're villainizing.

Him in a way that's not that different from the way Tony Deols.

I would say to his face. And I also wouldn't call him an extremist. I would say I think your case for reparations would basically was the reason that we have all this DEI bullshit, and that you effectively radicalize a bunch of white liberals into thinking that racism is the single biggest problem.

You coast absolutely.

Over okay, the police that murdered George Floyd, over Donald Trump and all of his many provocations. I mean, I just think that to lay the blame at the feet of one person is.

Tonovan saying his pace for reparations again is what radicalized a bunch of white liberals into thinking that burning the country down because a single cop murder George Floyd was a good idea or for everybody to start quoting Martin Luther King in this all bullshit about like the riot is the voice of the unheard, all of that stems from him.

That is correct.

I'm not the only person who's.

Saying that is crazy to lay the blame. Okay again, He's allowed to hold his political questions that he has, and he's allowed to make, you know, a case in the Atlantic magazine or wherever for whatever he.

Wants to be.

He shouldn't got him more of a villain than a police officer that murdered someone for doing nothing is to me wild. But anyway, let's go ahead and move on to the rest of this interview, because this is also quite extraordinary because that was just the beginning. The opening question is basically Archie a terrorist for thinking this, and then the rest of it he goes on to insinuate that he's effectively an anti Semite, must be an anti Semite for holding these views.

Let's take a listen to that.

But if you were to read.

This book, you would be left wondering why does any of Israel exist? What a horrific place, committing horrific acts on a daily basis. So I think the question is central and key if Israel has a right to exist. And if your answer is no, then I guess the question becomes why do the Palestinians have a quite to twenty different Muslim countries.

I answer is that no country in this world establishes its ability to exist through rights. Countries establish their ability to exist through force, as America did. And so I think this question of rights to Israel does exist.

It's a fact.

The question of its right is not a question that I would be faced with with any other country.

But you write a book that delegitimizes the pillars of Israel.

It seems like an effort to topple the whole building of it.

So I come back to the question, and it's what I struggle with throughout this book. What is it that so particularly offends you about the existence of a Jewish state that is a Jewish safe place and not any of the other states out there.

There's nothing that offends me about a Jewish state.

I am offended by the idea of states built on ethnocracy, no matter.

Where they are.

Muslim concluded, I would not want a state where any group of people laid down their citizenship rights based on ethnicity. The country of Israel is a state in which half the population exists on one tier citizenship, and everybody else that's ruled by Israelis exists on another tier, including Palestine Israeli citizens. The only people that exist on that first tier are Israeli Jews.

Why do we support that? Why is that? Okay, I'm the child of Jim Crow.

I'm the child of people that were born into a country where that was exactly the case of American apartheid. I walk over there, and I walk through the occupied territories and I walk down the street in Hebron and a guy says to me, I can't walk down the street unless I profess my religion.

I'm with another No, no, no, no. This is very valua support. It's extremely important. Lay it down. I'm working with.

The person that is guiding me is a Palestinian whose father, whose grandfather and grandmother was born in this town. And I have more freedom to walk than he does. He can't ride on certain roads, he can't get water in the same way that Israeli citizens who live less than a mile away from him.

Again, why is that okay? Is that?

Why is there no agency in this book for the Palestinians. They exist in your narrative merely as victims of the Israelis, as though they were not offered peace at any juncture, as though they don't have a stake in this as well?

What is their role in the lack of a have.

A very very moral compass about this. And again, perhaps it's because of my ancestry. Either apartheid is right or it's wrong. It's really really simple. Either what I saw was right or what's wrong. I am fascist against the death penalty. What the person did to get the death penalty. It really doesn't matter to me. I don't care if they were selling a nickelbag of marijuana or if they were a serial killer.

I am against the death penalty.

It's a state that discriminates against people on the basis of ethnicity.

I'm against that.

There is nothing the Palestinians could do that would make that okay for me. My book is not based on the hyper moraleic what the Palestinian people.

And that's basically the entirety of the interview. And I think that the key point he makes there is like, listen, I don't care. There's nothing the Palatines could have done that would make me say apartheid is morally acceptable, Like that would make me change my value. So it's either

This is morning show stuff.

Normally it's like very fluffy, and he comes in loaded for bear with every single talking for you can imagine that's not a surprise.

I mean, look again, my disagreement with Coates is Coates believes America as much as an apartheid state as Israel, and that's why I can't stand the game.

He believes that it was under Jim Crow, which is coorect.

But his essay about the case for reparations makes the case that we effectively still live in apartheid society, which is insane, and.

We still have a massive wealth that's partheid.

And that's what I'm saying is exactly is that he sees moral equivalents between the two, which I think is outrageous for a country that has done more not.

What he articulates in this book, and it's not what he articulates in this interview.

But I think.

That's a lot of credit push him on. I think he deserves a.

Lot of credit for the fact that he, you know, he is burn all of that elite credibility that he got. He's burning it right now to say something that is should be obvious on its face, that is, you know, powerfully true and certainly impacted him when he went and visited.

And the fact that he is.

Willing to burn that elite credibility in capital that he has on behalf of, yes, a group of people who in the American political media contexts are voiceless. I think he deserves nothing but praise and admiration for having the courage to do that which is not an easy thing to do and what most people avoid.

I could see how you arrive at that conclusion.

I think that it's only a furtherance of his project, which is to traw some equivalents between our country or society and theirs, which again I think is outrageous and insane.

Where are you getting that from.

From his own writing?

I literally am reading this book.

I'm not talking about it, and he does not say that. I'm talking about Compare what he compares Tide Israel modern day Israel too, is the Jim Crow South. That's what he compares it to. And I think that's accurate. I think that is highly accurate, and it's obviously a very powerful comparison to make in terms of the American political context, and especially compare, you know, given him and how people think of his credibility on these issues.

So I don't know.

Why it's so difficult for you to just say, like, hey, I disagree with him on these other things, but good on him for like using his elite capital to say something that's powerful and true in a space that it's normally never heard.

Yeah, I guess I could say that.

I get Look for me, I'm frankly I have t what is a tnc CO derangement syndrome? Anything him, Nicole, Hannah Jones, Abraham Kenny and all these other people, I honestly just don't care.

I blame them for so many problems.

That we curlear And I think it's fine you say disagree with them, but to like say they're not allowed to have that idea? Tell you that, but you've them are you're blaming them for you know, every ill, every racial ill in America, which is insane when you consider the amount of continued discrimination, when you consider, you know.

George Floyd being murdered, when.

You consider Donald Trump going out and in citing terror in a small Ohio town lying about Haitian immigrants. To say, oh, every racial problem we have is because of tany you see coats word an article in The Atlantic.

I think that is wild radicalize the American elite to believe that race is the only problem that we have in America. And as we just covered in our working class segment, the actual people who are working class don't agree with that. They're very a lot of Latinos are very anti more immigration.

So is that race.

That's my point is that his viewpoint gives us nothing in the American context.

But Taccer again, to say you disagree with his viewpoint legitimate. I have disagreements with his viewpoint, which I have expressed previously and have expressed in this segment. To say he's a villain, I mean, you're doing the same thing they're doing.

Okay, if somebody who you despise and said something bad had a good idea a single sentence, would you think it was appropriate to castigate them as a like a hero for saying one thing?

I think they.

Deserve no credit for doing something that. Here's the thing, this goes against his own personal career interest.

Yeah, very clearly. So does he deserve credit for that? Yes?

Think of how many people, when faced with this issue, when either totally close their eyes or know that it's wrong and keep their mouths shut because they want to keep their gig. How many American elites do so many? And so yes, of course, of course he deserves credit for like that political capital, for actually living up to what he claims, which is to be a voice for the voiceless. And there are plenty of people who you know in the Black Lives Matter.

Movement who they you know, the.

Kendy and these sorts of people who it just appears to be like a career ambition grift. And I think with this action in these writings and the way he responds in these interviews, he's proven himself to be different, to have a different kind of moral character than people who are just you know, grifting off of something that was popular in elite circles. So yeah, I give him, Yes, I give him credit for that.

You'd be different, yes, absolutely, I'm just I don't want people to have some takeaway that I think this person is like a hero or whatever.

You've made it clear that you don't think good.

I hope so.

And by the way, I didn't say research censorship. If he came here, I would say it to his face too, and we could go into it for an hour. I would let him speak. I don't think that other guy was allowing. I don't think what he said was anti Semitic or anything like that.

I don't know. I just have a very different.

View of who he is and the way that he's trying to like further his whole like race only project. And I think it's obviously fused in an ideology which I core disagree with less.

Here's the other thing that you're missing from his writing here that I actually think you would potentially agree with is he writes that the fact that you've been oppressed or that you've been a quote unquote victim, does not absolve you, does not mean that you cannot then go and turn around and do the very things that were

He sat with that. That's what he said. He that bothered him like that Ronia got shouted down?

Is that a synagogue and.

He got shouted down?

You know, she was like demonized in that group.

She was very nervous.

She said on Twitter to have stood up and said that at the time. But he actually sat with that, and that led him down this path, and it leads him to this, you know, to this central thesis that it's really important to understand that, yes, of course the victims of the Holocaust horrifying, like the fact that there was this you know, pressing sense of a need for

And so I appreciate the fact that while I have.

Disagreements with him, that he gets to have that voice in these elite spaces where those sorts of concepts, and especially you know, speaking for the Palestinians, where that is never heard.

So that's my life I understand, at least on that point, is that that the only reason he's allowed on CBS this morning is because of who he is. Yeah, that's right, And yeah it's true he's going to burn a lot of bridges doing this. And it is true that the not even Palestinian perspective, but really anything that goes against what's that guy's named.

Tony whatever, like Tony's ideology, that is not.

Common and there's a reason I think that you're going to see it here on this show or any Actually, frankly, a lot of independent media these days, frankly a lot more interesting is specifically because of this. So, yeah, it's true. I think he burns probably some bridges. He's going to experience a lot of pushback.

I guess.

My only point was that within his ideology and specifically like who he is as a figure in American politics, I think it's still important to evaluate like what this book is and also why he was able to get that CBS News post and what and then also consider what it meant for that to be, you know, for him to be such a respected figure, and I don't you know, for me, I just can't erase what I see as like a decade, honestly, of him pouring fire

I doubt he Okay, good, I will tell you this.

We can go as long as he wants. We can go for three hours, we can go for five hours. Don't will I will not cut him off, and we will sit there and we will. And I would say everything I just said right to a space.

I think what I would say is that.

It says something that the previous writings were comfortable for these spaces, because I mean, first of all, the reparations is such an unlikely political outcome that when you propose something that is outside of what anyone really thinks is politically possible, that becomes sort of inherently safe. And because if there's this sense, this race pasimas, sense of like this is just how things are in America. It can

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