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So one thing that we've been paying close attention to and reading into it whatever you can is the early vote results. And no state have they been more striking than the Sun belt state of Nevada. Let's put this up on the screen. And Nevada also benefits from the fact you got John Ralston, who everyone agrees is like legit in analyzing.
The early vote.
So he updates every day his early voting blog, and at this point, shocking given previous historical trends, Republicans actually have an advantage in terms.
Of the early vote.
So they have successfully convinced their voters to vote early. There's been a huge surge in terms of the rural areas in particular. In fact, he's describing this time he normally talks about a Clark County, which is Las Vegas firewall for Democrats. He's talking now about a rural firewall, a massive Republican advantage where there's been extremely high turnout in those rural, heavily conservative areas. In Washoe County, which I believe is where Reno is, it's a swing urban county.
Republicans have a four point lead that's just above their registration average in Clark County. The firewall is that just five thousand votes, just two and a half points in a place where Democrats have a nearly seven percent registration edge. So so far, and again it's early days. None of this reads into which way the large number of independents are going to vote. None of this reads in too obviously what's going to happen on election day. But the
early indications for Republicans are quite strong. I think Nevada is stronger than in any of the other states where we have significant early vote to take a look at. And one of the theories for why Republicans could be outperforming in Nevada in particular comes down to the issue of housing. Let's put this up on the screen. Obviously, this is something We've been focused on for a long time, just how much of a pain point the unaffordable housing market has become for so many voters.
New York Times did a great ride up here.
They said, as Harris courts, the Sunbelt housing costs stand in her way, and they compare the skyrocketing housing costs not just you know, to buy a home, but also rents, which is driven and fueled by a number of factors.
They compare that to a similar political earthquake as the exodus of steel companies or auto manufacturings manufacturers that left workers reeling in industrial Midwestern So I do think if you see a big divergence between the type of results that come out in the sun Belt states Nevada in particular, versus those quote unquote blue wall states in the industrial Midwest, I do think housing is going to be a big part of that.
I love a story is super interesting. A couple of takeaways. Number one is actually inside the story they court and talk about people who are specifically pissed off in Vegas about California implants, and it made me think about this kind of blue influx theory and whether the people are like, oh,
these states are all going to turn blue. But they could actually have like an interesting net effect where you have a blue voter come in, but that makes people really hate them and get angry and then vote Republican.
And if you think about it, it's actually a real like elite versus non elite dynamic where you have people who are predominant at least a lot more rich than the average citizen in Nevada, Texas wherever, coming in, driving up housing prices, and then those people feel a lot of the displacement, the anger, and they could very much respond in the same way that the blue Wall voters did whenever they voted against Democrats on NAFTA, on trade policy, immigration,
et cetera. I actually really could see a similar dynamic there. What would probably change things is you still have enough traditional blue voters and others who could offset that. But the tension means that it's a real like class dynamic that comes down to the most fundamental question of housing. I also found the trouble for Harris here was when voters were presented by this New York Times reporter about Harris's housing proposal. There's a deep cynicism where they're like,
I don't think any of that's going to happen. Yeah, I mean, and look are they wrong, especially if there's divided government. You know, I'm going to do a home monologue about this. You need an Act of Congress to have that. What do you think is going to use? The US Senate full of Republican is going to pass that. No, it's not going to happen, right. The best you could hope for is some Fannie Mae Freddie Mack whatever, like loosening of regulations and maybe some stuff through the Housing
and Urban Development Agency. But that's about it, right, Yeah.
I mean, listen, if we're comparing just the policy landscape, Harris has talked about Real Page. The Biden administration is going after Real Page, which is the cartel that has helped you spike rents in places like Las Vegas and other places around the country. She has, you know, talked a lot about this plan to help people with that down payment, which has become a major stumbling block for people who don't have like intergenerational wealth to be able to go to mommy and daddy and be like, hey,
help me with my down payment. You know.
So she does have specific plans, but I think.
The deeper problem for her is just like people are unhappy now with how things are and the Democrats are in power.
Like, it doesn't go deeper than that.
And you know, I guess the flip side of this is we did just look at polling that says that voters in general trust her more on housing and the type of working class voter that you have overwhelmingly in Las Vegas and Nevada in general, tends to be the service sector workers who that's like the as Matt Carr called them, the quote unquote like democratic working class versus the like industrial and manufacturing hard hat type of workers, which is why Nevada has stayed in the Democratic camp
for all these years, even as a lot of you know, the working class has realigned. So those would be some of the things that they're helpful about. But you know, I when you think about housing and how much the escalating prices have squeezed people, there is maybe no place in the country that has been harder hat hit then Las Vegas because they I don't know, if you guys remember after the Great Recession, massive housing bus there, you know,
just utter devastation. Then you had all of this permanent capital come in and buy up a bunch of these homes, turn them into rentals, you know, jack up the prices. Then you had the brutal hit that they took or in particular during the pandemic, which meant that people's incomes were lower than they were before. Many of those people feel like they really never recovered from the hit the service sector took during the pandemic. So you have a lot of economic turmoil concentrated.
Specifically in this state.
And again, you know, you could talk about like and I did interview someone here who was like struggling with all of these things, but was like, I think Kamala is the person that would be better positioned turn these things around. So I'm sure that sentiment does exist among some. But if you've been dealt a rough hand over these past four years and it was Democrats in charge, you can see how that's a compelling argument on the Trump CACHEMPST A side.
It gets to people. You know, when people are like, well, Calmo, when people took Comma more in housing, very few people are like I'm going to the ballot box because my
ass is too expensive. They're like, well, housing makes me pissed off, and I'm pissed off, And that makes me distrust the party in power, right, So they don't think directly in terms of that, and that is you know, that's really comes down to the whole like vibe conversation, I do understand it, I really do, you know, for in terms of the frustration, especially in Nevada and in North Carolina too. We've talked here about Asheville and the
explosion there. But you know, I always say Raleigh and Charlotte are two of the most booming cities in the United States. Atlanta, you know, Georgia today is a battleground. Atlanta. The amount of influx they've had from New York and from a lot of the East Coast is astounding in terms of the population change in Georgia, in the entire Sunbelt, you know, Florida included, we're talking about some of the biggest internal migration since World War Two that we've seen.
So these places have changed dramatically in the last five years. Where I'm from Texas, you don't even recognize it. Austin in particular.
So you know, there's almost like a reverse dynamic in the Montana Senate race, which is John Tester is the Democratic incomment and the most endangered Democratic incomment, most of the Poles seem to indicate like he's not going to hang out, but you never know his opponent. What's his name, Tim?
She he yeah, she first name Tim.
I'm making that up anyway, She Yeah, he got caught.
We talked about this before. This has been on the record before.
He claimed he had sustained like a war wound and been like shot in battle in Afghanistan, I think. And it turns out he shot himself accidentally in a national park, which we know because they had to file an incident report because you're not allowed to discharge a firearm in a national park. And the park ranger just came out and went on the record to be like, yeah, I was there, this is what happened. Like he did not, he was not wounded in battle. He shot himself when
he was in a national park. So anyway, you never know what's gonna happen in that race. At the bottom line, But to get back to my original point about housing, Montana has seen.
Oh huge, bows huge they call it bos Angelists or whatever.
Huge influx, but it's largely conservatives who have moved into the state. And she he is one of those people who was part of the influx into the state. Now, of course, he frames this as like, listen, I wish I was born in Montana because I love Montana, but you know, I'm a business owner and creating job in the state blah blah blah. And Tester is who's you know, a long time born and raised as a Farmer's the big boys got you know, several fingers that he lost in like a farming accent.
You know, he's legit.
He's a legit Montana, which is why he is able to hand ont hang onto the state as long as he has. He's making the case of like these outsiders, like people who are from Montana really understand Montana, like they trust me, and that's why, you know, I'm going to represent your interests, and he represents all these people who are coming in and changing your way of life. So it's kind of an interesting like reverse dynamic going out there's interest.
Yeah. By the way, I love Montana too.
Never it's the only states I've never been to.
Oh my god, I would like to go with Donovan. Beautiful. It is natural. Beauty wise, it's all up there with California. They have so many incredible national parks.
I highly recommend it, but yeah, they don't shoot yourself at one of them.
Sure. And the people there, though, I think they make it known they're like, stop coming here from California, We're sick of you. And they don't have like a million people who live there.
Yeah, but it's like it's like because a lot of the people who transplant it there are like right wing California who are disgusted with the like liberal direction of this.
So if I were them too, i'd be mad. You know, you live in this pristine wilderness and such great and you have all these rich people who come in and buy all the land. I know there's a lot of beef between like private landowners and hunters because it's long time been like.
A big wells which I do.
Yeah, no, exactly, And actually, if you look at the most desirable places in Montana, it has some of the most expensive real estate in the entire country. For those of you who also like trolls, Zillow and dream Book.
All right, let's go and move on to this story that we just wanted to put on your radar because there are new charges that just dropped against three individuals associated with Abercrombie and Fitch. But the former CEO in particular, Michael Jeffries, has been charged along with his longtime partner
Matthew Smith, and they're sort of enabler James Jacobson. Let's go and put this up on the screen from the Department of Justice, they say in the headline, former CEO of Abercromie and Fitch and two others charged with sex
traffic an interstate prostitution. Let me tell you the details here are as horrifying as you can imagine I'm going to summarize, but effectively, the allegations are that over decades these three ran a sex trafficking ring where effectively they would lure in these young, aspiring male models and promised them, you know, jobs with modeling with Abercrombie and Fitch, which is a big deal, you know for a model who's
struggling and trying to make it. But they would hold out to them that in order to have all of these career prospects, they would need to engage in a variety of sex acts. Even beyond that, they would threaten them with ruining their career if they didn't comply. They required all of them to sign non disclosure agreements so that they felt like they couldn't possibly come forward saying anything.
According to the indictment, on more than one occasion when men did not or could not consent, these men violated their bodily integrity by subjecting them or continuing to subject them to invasive, sexual and violent contact by body parts and other objects. Some of the other details here are I mean, it's just it's exactly what you imagine. These young men who are desperate, who are trying to make it,
who are often financially incredibly stressed. This is the they think, this is like the make or break moment for them, and the first person they meet is this guy Jacobson, who apparently and a number of the men in a BBC investigation told a very similar story. Their first meeting would be with him and he would coerce them into oral sex and they would think, Okay, well that was horrible, but that's like it's probably just this one creep and I got past that. Now I have my opportunity to
meet with the CEO. This is going to be where my modeling aspirations come to fruition. And then they go to one of these events and it's even what they're subjected to and forced into is even worse. And you know, Sager, is this an iconic brand, iconic brant. And we've been hearing some you know, like rumors about what was really going on there because I don't know. I'm obviously I'm
significantly older than Saga. I remember when, like the catalog would come out for Abercrombie and Fitch, and even at the time, you'd be looking at it and are like, these people are not even wearing clothes like this all like naked men.
What's going on here? How are they even?
And that was their whole thing, and obviously from a financial perspective, they made a huge impact on the culture. There were a lot of allegations already about discrimination in terms of basically they wanted a specific like white, preppy look even for their sales associates in the stores.
If you had if you were.
Black or brown or you know, Muslim and wearing headscarf, that was not allowed at all. You weren't allowed to have dreadlocks like. They were very particular about and discriminatory and wanting this very specific look. But obviously the allegations here go far beyond what we had learned specifically from this like Abercrombie and Fitch documentary.
Yeah, previously, the documentary gave a lot of this stuff away and the like you read from some of the indictment. We have it there. You should go read it for yourself. It is horrifying and honestly, the only thing I'm surprised is that it took a long time. And I do think it's important because what it does is it highlights like so much of the you know, there's a lot of nostalgia these days for the old days and like, oh, things were better in the nineties and the two thousands.
By and large, I do mostly agree with that, but there was a dark side to the culture and to all of that. We actually have some of the testimony from some of these people. Let's go ahead and play D three please. You know that you're getting close. When the Dire hit with the smell of agricamy.
Think that club beat and their chested guys.
It was such a pop culture phenomenon.
It was an all American look. I think he's I think he's a predator, and I don't think that's what the public has seen.
I was overwhelmed, Like I mean, I've never seen anything like this what I'd.
Like to talk about is being lied to, tricked and traded like a commodity.
Me too has empowered women to speak out about sexual abuse. Now these men say they want to be heard too.
I think it's rarely considered that men could be a victim of anything.
They face a double stigma, and I don't think that men have quite had their me too movement.
So you can see, you know, in terms of the testiment is terrible in terms of the way that they were treated, and there was definitely a lot of different way of discussion. I'm sure everybody's been seen on Netflix. This has all comes to light again from the Menendez case, you know, all the discussion around sexual assault and how it involves men in the way that cultural attitudes have
shifted and changed around them. Because it does say something that this wasn't even taken seriously or investigated or thought about at the times. And I mean this was just the two thousands that earned nineteen nineties. They were obviously tried in the nineteen eighties, So it is certainly it's really sad. And what it does show us too was the way that they got away with that for so long inside the industry. And it was such an open secret.
Were talked about Ditty yesterday, We've talked about Weinstein, and I think that's the part that really gets me, is about how open of the knowledge is and it's still allowed to perpetuate and worse, you know, there's just more victims. People. These are eighteen nineteen year old guys and you know, you don't even reason really awful stuff. But they also had to go through like it was they were getting forcibly injected, you know at some.
Point exactly exactly.
Yeah.
One who was interview, who can put this BBC investigation up on the screen, said the experience, I think it broke me. I think this stole any ounce of innocence I had left. It mentally messed me up. But with the language I now have today, I can sit here and tell you I was taken advantage of it. And I think even today, yeah, it takes a lot of courage to come forward against Actually I think as a man and say, you know, I was raped, I was assaulted, I was taken advantage of And I.
Was thinking the same as you.
Sagur like Diddy ran that allegedly ran this criminal enterprise where you know, similar levels of threats, coercion, similar promises of like, hey baby, this is going to make your career. My friend Torre reported on R and B singer Cassie who was in that horrible video being beaten and dragged in a hotel hallway. He put on Ice her album for like a decade just to sort of string her along of like, oh, you know, of course it's coming. Of course it's going to be great, and stole from
her so much. Obviously, you know, the abuse is horrifying, but also he stole from her the prime years of her career. And you see a similar dynamic here where you've got these three men who were saying to these young guys like I hold the keys to the kingdom and just do what I want you to do and it's all going to be fine, and using that position power to enable.
Decades and decades of abuse.
Very similar thing with Harvey Weinstein, right, very similar thing where you know, yeah, the casting couch, right, you come in, you do what I want you to do, and I'm going to put you in a movie. And if you don't, by the way, I'm going to ruin your life. And I have the level of power that can make that happen also say, did you watch the Nickelodeon documentary.
Oh, yeah, I will come of it.
Yeah they didn't.
They alluded to and there were some specific things that happened there in terms of like sexual abuse of these kids.
But again it's like, hey, this is kid Central. Your kid is going to be a star, they're going to be famous, your family's going to be fine using that position of power, and also reminded me, of course of Jeffrey Epstein, who part of how he would more in young girls is through his association with Les Wexner, who was with Victoria's Secret, and he held himself out as I'm a modeling agent, and you know, I'm scouting these girls, and that was part of how they were. The modeling
industry just seems to be an absolute cesspool. But so many of these industries where you have a massive disparity between the power, the people the top and the aspirants who want to get who are so desperate to get in this industry, so desperate to make it, et cetera, it just makes it rife, rife for abuse. And that's really the portrait that emerges here. Certainly, we wanted to highlight for you, some of the latest horrors coming out
of the Middle East. So this was actually a video that was highlighted by a Congressman, Thomas mass So you could put this up on the screen. This is an apartment building being just completely demolished by Israel in Beirut, in Lebanon, and Massey said, along with this video, who's a Republican, Who's like the only Republican who said anything reasonable on this conflict in my view in terms.
Of elected officials.
Quote, if Israel insists on destroying civilian targets in Lebanon, let them buy and build their own weapons. American taxpayer shouldn't be funding this. So this is not in Gaza. This is in Lebanon, in a major city where they are just utterly destroying a massive apartment building there. At the same time, you know, the IDEAF had put out this propaganda video we talked about before, which alleged that Hasbela had a bunch of their financial assets that were
hidden under a hospital. It's very, eaerily reminiscent of some of the propaganda videos that they had put out in advance of attacking hospitals in Gaza.
So we were all, well, here we go again.
You know, this is just their attempt to justify yet another assault on another country's medical system. But one thing that's different in Lebanon, unlike Gaza, is that you have access. Journalists have access to be able to actually go to the hospital and look around and say, Okay, well is it true what they're saying and TLDR No, it was.
A total lie.
Here is the BBC underneath said hospital where supposedly the evil layer existed. Finding absolutely nothing.
Let's take a look at that.
Well, we're on level minus two in the Al Sahell Hospital. The area just behind me is where medical waste is stored. Even that was opened up for us to have a look. The morgue was opened up, all of the drawers were opened to show us there was nothing inside. Doctors have been opening piles of surgical scrubs, boxes of equipment, very very keen to show us everything there is to see and to prove that there is nothing here. Well, I'm just coming now from the basement on minus two up
to minus one. We've been brought around the hospital by doctors.
We've also been.
Allowed to move around on our own. Doors have been opened for us in every area. Copboards we've been allowed to see what there is to see now. The hospital staff are adamant that there is no hidden bonker here containing millions of dollars of cash or gold, as the
Israelis have claimed. They say, this is just a hospital where patients were being treated last night and where they had to be evacuated from the emergency area at great speed because doctors were worried for the lives of the patients and also worried for the staff.
So, in addition to obviously the significance of just exposing this was not shockingly a total incomplete fabrication and lie, I think Sara also shows something that Israel has known because they have launched all that assault on journalists and journalism since the post October seventh. Then many would say even before it really matters to have journalists have access to the war zone to be able to adjudicate, like, Okay, they're saying this, let's go check it out. And in
Gaza access has been almost completely closed off. Any sort of Western outlet that wants to go in has to abide by all of the IDF's rules. They have to be invited in. Yeah, they have to be subject to that censorship. They get taken on basically like a guided tour of the things the IDF wants them to see.
And the only outfit that you know, outsider outfit that has been able to have any access is Al Jazeera, which Israel has accused of being hamas has stripped their broadcast licenses, you know, seized their equipment and raided their office and shut them down. And I think, you know, this little piece of journalism from the BBC exposes why they have seen that independent that journalism as such a threat to the project of annihilation that they're engaged in.
The journalism piece is really important and that's actually it's funny because in the idea they like, go look at it for yourself, and then they did and they're like, well, that's kind of an issue for you. But I mean part of the issue is also that even though they have the access, that our outlets are still not going there. It's coming from the BBC, right, But I haven't seen any of this in art. I mean, I get it,
we're twelve days from election. You know, there's a lot, but it is important if you're gonna check these ts.
Yeah, absolutely, And to the point about the all one assault on journalism. Their latest effort, that Israeli's latest effort. We can put E four up on the screen. They've accused these six Al Jazeera journalists of being hamas terrorists. Put E five up on the screen. Of course, Al Jazeera strenuously denies this, and this comes in the context of you know, I don't even know how many journalists they've killed in Gaza at this point. As I said, Al Jazeera says this was fabricated evidence.
As I said before, you.
Know, Al Jazeera's they're really the only outlet that has been able to operate, So they're the only ones who have been able to you know, go into hospitals, to go to the site of these massacres, to really report on the ground what is happening. And a number of their reporters have already been killed by Israel in the context of trying to report on this war. So New York Times Rights the channel's correspondence are some of the few remaining reporters on the ground in Gaza to document
the devastating impact of Israel's operations there. Israel has largely barred the international press. Again, this is from the New York Times from entering the enclave except on closely monitored tours accompanied by the Israeli military. Al Jazeera called the accusations a blatant attempt to silence the few remaining journalists in the region, there by obscuring the harsh realities of
the war from audiences worldwide. And I would just say, listen, obviously, I think these charges are total, incomplete.
Bullshit, completely made up.
You know, they've offered they made up the whole unra these are terrorist thing. They never provided the evidence that they said that we're going to back up those claims, that there's no reason whatsoever to take the Israeli government at face value with this. But I would also say, hey, if you don't like these journalists, open it up so
that any outlet can go in and report. If it's going to be so validating to you of how what a moral army you are and how great the situation is on the ground, why don't you let in more journalists to be able to actually report on the war and your efforts as it exists.
Yeah, that's a good point. Can we go to the next part you found this? I found it so interesting about the realignment that's currently happening. Iran is saying that it's planning to hold its first joint military drills with Saudi's in the Red Sea. And this really goes counter to the entire theory of the Middle East that the Trump administration had going into the Abraham Accords, which was to consolidate the Emirates and the Gulf powers against Iran,
but through normalization of relations with Israel. But what's happened instead is that now the Palestinian question has been forced so much to the front, especially with the Arab populations, that they're finding themselves aligned against Israel and obviously also against the United States, which is this predominant backer. So the first time here, I mean to see two armies
first military drills. Somebody showed me this. The Ayatola when he died, in his last rule and testament, included this whole thing about how the House of Saud was evil and how it needs to be regime changed. I mean, these were you know, blood, This is a true blood feud, not to mention the entire religious dynamic of Sunni and Shia.
So to see this happening is absolutely extraordinary, and it's one of those where you know, look the entire region is really aligning against us, and you should ask yourself for what you know. This isn't even for Iraq war. This is for our conflict that we're not even in. But we're funding the entire thing and it's causing a huge amount of blowbacks, so I think we are going to pay for it sometimes.
Yeah.
No, this is literally the first time this has ever happened, and it should also go not go unnoted that this was a deal brokered by China. So you know, as the region is aligning around the Palestinian question against US and Israel, it's you know, China that is serving the rule as diplomats and peacemakers amongst these longtime enemies. So definitely extraordinary development worth keeping an eye on. At the same time, we can put this up on the screen.
You had, I mean, this is just too perfect. So you had Tony Blincoln questioning bb net Naho about this quote unquote general's plan, which is basically, we're going to seal off northern Gaza, We're to starve everybody that's inside, and we're just going to assume that they're all Hamas militants.
Blincoln question that Nawho about this, US.
Officials told Bibe, there is a perception that Israel's pursuing a strategy of isolating the North, telling people that if they don't leave their effectively targets and denying food to go in Bib in his Top eight ron. Drmer responded that this was absolutely not our policy, and the fact that this perception exists has been deeply damaging to US. US officials then said, okay, so why don't you go out and say that publicly, But the Israelis refused to make such a commitment.
Which you know, it just shows you behind closed doors. Oh, of course not.
We would never do that. We can all see the reports that are coming out. They are literally executing exactly what is described in the General's plan, and so privately they'll reassure you us, no, no, we're not doing that whatsoever. Of course not, we would never do that. Okay, fine,
we'll go out and say that publicly. Yeah, not going to do that, because number one, we actually that is actually our plan, and number two, this is popular with our political base in particular, and so no, we're not going to go out and tell our political base that we're not doing the thing that they want us to do, you know, just to as an indication of the reality of this plan being implemented in Northern Gaza. We can put this scene up on the screen.
This is a.
Breadline people desperately, desperately scrapping to try to get a loaf of bread. Such as the level of desperation that has taken hold around Kaza, but in Northern Gaza in particular, where now I just saw this morning. Even the Israelis are acknowledging that no food aid, no aid entered Northern Gaza for weeks in early October. They are acknowledging basically that they, you know, have blocked aid, something that our administration has pretended to not be able to figure out
whether or not they're doing. We also know that there's been we played for you in the last show, the forced you might call it a death march, evacuation of Northern Gaza.
Once again.
We also know that some of the people who have tried to evacuate Northern Gaza have been shot at and times killed. So you know, this is the reality of the policy that our government is funding and supporting and pretending to have no idea.
What's going on? Yeah, all right, Sager? What are you looking at.
One of the weird parts about doing this job is every once in a while someone will come up to me and ask how should I vote. I usually answer it in the same way, well what do you care the most about? Sometimes the answer is staying out of war. Sometimes it's a rich person they say, I don't want to pay any taxes. Sometimes as a service worker wants healthcare. Based on that, I interrogated a bit more, and I go, well, can you with what can't you what are the best
chances of actually happening that you do care about. It's a very useful exercise. I noticed a lot of people don't actually do it. For example, we recently played a clip of someone asking Trump how he was going to improve the quality of his kids' school in New York City. Now, I understand it was probably bigger than that, but many people just appear not to know about ninety five percent
of that control is state and local. Or you're going to see other voters quote on the cost of groceries with a very vague understanding how can the president even affect that? So I thought I would do a monologue here about my theories of the American presidency. The varying degrees of things that actually they control. Let's start with arguably the most important issue, least often considered, war and peace.
The president's commander in chief has near absolute power to decide the fate of our nation through his or her conduct of foreign policy. While they cannot declare war, the imperial presidency has evolved since the time of LBJ and George W. Bush gives them the authority to launch literal missile strikes on foreign nations even without a declared war
by Congress. When Trump says it is okay, for example, for Israel to launch missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, or Kamala says Ukrainian victory is a necessity for US security, you should very clearly understand they are one hundred percent ability to follow through and directly impact your life. Now, outside of foreign policy, it's very different, especially on the economy. We can divide economic impact of the presidency into two areas,
those that require agencies and those that require legislation. Most of the high profile things that you hear from Trump and from Kamala, like no tax on tips or housing subsidies, would not be something they can do on their own. It would require Congress, which we will return to. In reality, especially if there is a divided government, you should look to agency power. This is where both can have tremendous impact.
For example, through the EPA, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the FTC, as we've seen under Lena Khan, the Anti Trust Division of the Department of Justice, they make rulings that massively impact the US economy, but only within the scope of defined responsibility. Ironically, their power has actually been lessened for both presidents, especially Trump after the repeal of the Chevron
doctrine by the Supreme Court. But nonetheless, through agency power they can affect the price of oil, whether new things get approved for building, perhaps most importantly, tariffs within a very defined scope. It would take Congress for Trump or Kamala to have an across the board tariff as he's proposed, but Commerce Department, under National Security designations can implement some tariff to the tune of hundreds of billions on select items without Congressional input. But I want to point out
there are still some major limits to this. Back in the Trump years when I covered the White House, he tried very different things to try and divert from from the Pentagon to build the border wall. It had huge legal hurdles it had to jump through. In the end, it mostly just didn't work. At one point, it set up a showdown between Trump and Congress. They ended up losing to Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. Now on the
congressional front, it's actually pretty simple. The likelihood of some major flagship items touted by Trump and Kamala have very little chance of passage. If Kamala actually did win, she would almost certainly have at least one Chamber of Congress that was Republican, meaning that when the tax cuts and jobzax expires in twenty twenty five, what they would have
a say over what replaces it. From Democrats that I've spoken to, the bargain that will most likely happen is this Republicans would get an extension of corporate and income tax bracket reductions, while Democrats would get some version of a child tax credit that in and of itself, of course, would be a big bardain, But most of the rest of her so called plan is probably just dead on arrival for Trump, even if he had United government, I do not see a world where a majority of the
Republicans would back no tax on tips, and certainly not no tax on social security benefits. In all likelihood, what would pass is an extension of the tax cuts from twenty seventeen, in addition to probably some big business friendly tax cruts and perhaps some deficit offset by repealing environmental tax credits passed by the Biden administration. So if you were majorly affected by any of those policies, and they're the most important for you, you need to very heavily
consider that when you're voting. Turning to immigration, this is another area where the president both has major control and is also very limited. Now, as we saw under Biden, interpretation of executive authority can allow literally millions of illegals to come into the country. At the same time, under Trump we saw very similar problems with border crossings, and it was only quelled by a remain in Mexico which did not address the underlying problem of asylum law and
processing issues that border patrol has. The only way I see the immigration question majorly affected under Trump or Kamm Law is again with congressional action of literally rewriting laws, which can only happen with the United Government otherwise when it's divided. The likelihood of a grand compromise is very low because of a theory called thermostatic public opinion. This theory basically says that when the left is in power, the country moves right. When the right is in power,
the country moves left. In other words, on immigration, you should understand the likelihood of what you were voting for is interpretation of today's immigration laws, not some pie in the sky vision that people are selling you. And finally, and potentially, the biggest impact outside of war the president has control over is the Supreme Court. Trump of course, appointed three justices on the US Supreme Court while he
was in office. If he were to assume office again, it is a safe bet Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas would resign, giving the Conservatives a decades long solid majority on the Court. This would have impacts of interpretations from law in social to economic. Conversely, if Kamala won, the actuarial tables tell us she'll probably have at least one appointment right, and thus could change the makeup of the
court in the long run. It's not a sexy thing to think about, but the impact is gigantic, and it is worth considering both of these. If you are going to vote. So I will end with this general heuristic of whatever issue that you care about, be real with yourself. Ask yourself, does the president actually have the ability to control this? And then what judgment you think that they would use for it If they can't control it, Ask yourself with the likelihood of what you want happening will
get through Congress. Yeah, I know it's depressing, but it's better you should be clear eyed about what you're voting for rather than to vote and then get disappointed. Finally, I'll just say this, it doesn't have to be this way. My favorite presidents are these who have transcended the dynamic I just laid out. They actually forced Washington in the
country to really move with them. FDR is one of the best presents, specifically because he harnessed the power of the executive and public popularity to force Congress to radically shift America's relationship with government. Teddy Roosevelt was the very first to do so. He took a job that mostly only had power over foreign affairs and war and turned himself into a real public advocate changed the country forever.
LBJ inherited a job that, again it was stuck almost entirely in the realm of just the Cold War used the force of power at expertise to push through massive social legislation that had not been seen in one hundred years. In both cases, I'm sorry to tell you I don't see much of that on the ballot today. My expectations are set very much accordingly. I hope this helps you
if you're considering how to vote. I do hoop. Do hope that you will still participate, because if you don't, the likelihood of things getting even better they're still not that high. So there you go, Crystal. That's my heuristic, the guy asked, And if
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