Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.
Of course we're going to leave the show once again with new polling data. Yesterday we had a bunch of polls that look pretty good for Trump. Today it's a little bit of a different picture and interesting commentary from Harry Eton, so I will take a look at that. We also have an exclusive from the Center for Working Class Politics. They have some new polling that really breaks down how the working class is thinking about this election
in the state of Pennsylvania specifically. Really really recommend this segment to you. We actually recorded it yesterday, so I already know it's going to be fantastic. So you'd have phone a tune in for that interesting from John's Stewart. He confronted Tim Walls over their whole Liz and Dick Cheney strategy.
Yeah, so we'll talk to you about that.
Also, we're taking a look at Polymarket, which has been really championed by a lot of Republicans, which has shown Trump surging for a while now, could potentially be rigged, so we'll dig into those details. Also got some new allegations we wanted to cover about Diddy. Two other unnamed celebrities also named in this or we don't have specific names, but also alleged to have been involved in this criminal activity.
And we're taking a look at THEO vonn choking up over thinking about what is being done to Gods's children and CNN with in the running now for perhaps the worst article written about this kind. I mean, it's just unimaginably.
You don't even believe it. I actually couldn't believe that it was real until I read it, so very same.
Yeah, I pulled it up. I was like, this can't be right.
There's no way anyways, but you know they never stoop to new Low So anyway, thank you to so much to our premusbscribers. Who've been signing up. You guys got access to that exclusive Logan interview yesterday. We're down the wire. It is officially two weeks now to election day, which is incredible. Go ahead and sign up at breakingpoints dot com. Become a premium subscriber because you're going to get access to our exclusive election predictions and all of that first
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Now.
As Chrystal said, we've got polls really all over the map one, so we're going to point in a couple of different directions, both into where the polling error might be and to where some potential good bullish news for Kamala might be. Here, Harry Enton has aggregated a bunch of polls and is starting to look at white working class support for Donald Trump and where even though he is winning, by not winning as much, could potentially lose those blue Wall states. Here's what he had to say.
We've seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump's direction. So you would think his core group, his base of support, would be doing the same, but in fact it's moving a little bit away from him. So this is Trump's margin with non college white voters. Unlike most so voting blocks, this group is not moving towards me, it's actually moving slightly away. So you go back eight years ago, he won h buy thirty three. You go back four years ago, he won him buy thirty one.
Now what we look is we see that in the latest average of polls, he's only up by twenty seven. Now, that may not seem like a lot, but given that we're seeing these double digit gains, say among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the twenty sixteen baseline, but the twenty twenty baseline as well, I think that's a rather interesting development.
Trinckage, as Yeah Front might say.
Look at this, Non college white voters make up forty percent of the electorate. That's more than college whites at twenty nine percent, all other groups voters of color at
twenty eight percent. So this is something that we've seen throughout the board, right, which is that Donald Trump is making huge gains with groups that make up a smaller percentage of the electorate while he's losing a little bit, but these groups that he's losing a little bit of make up a much large that's your portion of the electorate. But more than that, you know, we're talking about the
USFA where they make up forty percent. Why don't you go to those key Great Lake battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. They have outsized import in those Great Lake battleground states. Non college white voters. Look at this, they make up the slim majority of voters at fifty one percent, way more than college whites at thirty percent, way more than
all other voters at sixteen percent. So if you're seeing movement in the Great Lake battleground states among non college whites, that could be a very big development.
John.
That is the key point is that if there is movement there, even if it's just a little bit, because there are so many non college whites, and specifically so many non college whites in those blue wall states, it is a problem. You know, I always try and remind people the median voter in the United States is a fifty year old white dude and or woman who did not go to college. So that is the whole ball game.
That's where everything is now. The reason we lay that out is because that could either be two things, one genuine movement, or it could be the source of poling miss, just like it was in twenty sixteen. So Amy Walter over at Cook Political put this out. Let's put this on the screen, please, She says, I've been thinking about this a lot. If there is a surprise on election night, it is that Trump does better among white non college than polls suggest, which would likely flip the blue wall.
So this really is a choose your own adventure of where things are, because it really I mean that if what Harry laid out is accurate, Trump very well could lose because look, yeah it's great to be up by ten percent amongst black voters, but you know Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Yeah, there's some black people, not a lot. There's way more whites. So if they even move a little bit in the Kamala direction, boom, He's going to lose. Men, if we think about it in terms of a MISS, I don't know.
I gotta be honest. My bias is the mys territory, Like, what evidence do we have that these non college educated whites are not going more in the Trump direction white college You know, we can talk about that. Yeah, all day long. I guess the only answer would be that these would be women who are voting on the issue of abortion. That's the only way I could see this theory playing it well.
I think the other evidence for it is the fact that he did actually lose a couple points among white non college educative voters between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. So if that's the trend line and that has continued and perhaps, as you're pointing out, been exacerbated by Roe versus weight among women, wouldn't it be crazy if the story of this election is that Donald Trump picks up significant ground with black and brown voters and loses the election because it.
Was kind of a story twenty twelve white votes.
Yeah, it actually a little bit, So it would not be that shocking.
And you know, we all have to check our kind of biases and caricatures of different electorates at the door. You know, this idea that the white working class is just like mindlessly in support of Trump, and that's that is,
you know, as caricaturist as views of other temographic groups. However, to your point, Soccer, I was reading, you know, I'm just like reading every bit of data analysis that I possibly can about what direction the polls may move in and how they may be off, et cetera, et cetera. Nate con has a new analysis out at The New York Times of two different theories of the polling misses from twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and then you know
what happened in twenty twenty two. One of them is what he calls the unified theory of polling miss which is effectively that when Trump's on the ballot and he's driving super high turnout and all these infrequent voters come out, it's just impossible for pollsters to be able to really get an accurate portrait of the electorate. White not in college educated voters would be an.
Important part of that.
You just even when you're correcting for you know, education levels and trying to adjust as best you can, you just can't get people who have not voted in the past, who you know are not all that politically engaged on the phone to accurately reflect in your survey. And those people tend to go more for Donald Trump than other candidates. If that's the reason for the polling miss in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Then that would indicate that the
polls are probably once again understating Donald Trump's support. Very possible. The other explanation is, I think he calls it like the patchwork theory, where the idea goes that in twenty sixteen, the myths was because you didn't have polsters waiting in education, that clearly was a big problem for them. Once you waited in education after the fact, that really made those
polls a lot more accurate. So that's what happened in twenty sixteen, and then in twenty twenty you had the pandemic and this concept of like white liberals, college educated liberals at home board isolated. You had a partisan difference between how people responded to the pandemic, and there's significant evidence that that is the reason for a significant part of the miss in twenty twenty. So if that's the case, then that was kind of a one off.
Pollsters have adjusted.
It's possible because you saw in twenty twenty two the miscg go the other way that some of the ways that the pollsters have adjusted could even be overstating Trump support this time around. So those are two of the
possibilities of what's going on. And of course the third possibility is that it's something else entirely that you know, could create god knows what in terms of polling era this time around, and obviously, with the poles as close as they've been, a little bit of the polls could be accurate within the margin of error and still completely missed a sweet for Trump or a sweet for Kamala. And you know, I think any of these scenarios is really plausible.
Absolutely, let's put that on the screen just again to put give it out there and what it all looks like. So here you have this was Washington Post amongst likely voters, and they went state by state. Georgia they have it Harris fifty one forty seven. Keep in mind, that's pretty
different from a lot of the other stuff. Ither Wisconsin they had at fifty forty seven for Harris, Michigan forty nine forty seven, Pennsylvania forty nine, forty seven, Nevada forty eight forty eight, tiedes Ship, Nevada, more Tide, North Carolina they had Trump up by three. Arizona they had at forty nine forty six. I would say that's in general a pretty bullish poll right there for Kamala general across them,
how much is it real? When you add it to the averages, it kind of nets out a little bit. That's what we saw in terms of the Nate Silver analysis that I looked at just yesterday where he incorporated those in. But what he keeps talking about is a tightening of the nationals and a tightening of the national
in general. Not really good for her. So it really, like you said, in terms of the choose your own adventure for where the polling miss and all of that will look like, let's put these up there because these are potentially a little bit more useful when it's not about candidates and instead it's about views of the economy. So when we look at the overall view of the economy, there has been a significant rise from October twenty twenty three to October twenty twenty four of whether the economy
is good or bad. Now keep in mind you still it's only thirty eight percent sixty two percent, So sixty two percent of people still say it's bad used to be seventy three amongst Democrats, it's actually a majority sixty one percent the economy is good thirty nine percent the economy is bad. Independent though, that's a troubling number for her because you've got independence only twenty eight percent saying the economy is good, seventy two percent bad, and then
thirteen percent Republicans saying good eighty five percent bad. So again, there has been major movement from where things were, let's say, in October twenty twenty one, October twenty twenty three, but in twenty twenty four that in general, it does look like the Independents are much more coalescing around the idea that the economy is or the independence and specifically are still staying in the economy is bad. Now, of course there has been some movement. It does raise the quest's.
Worth pointing out that in October twenty twenty two, just before the midterms, use it when Democrats did pretty well, views of the economy were significantly worse than they are now.
So yeah, Corrollary to this is you have to believe for this to be impactful, that this will be in economy election, and look, we have very recent evidence to say that that is not the case. Let's go to the next place, because that's where things could get a
little bit more interesting. So I'll just read here the division on whether Harris or Trump is trusted to handle many issues, and this is going to explain a lot of why different campaigns are doing what they are doing so right now, Abortion policy is the single best issue for Kamala Harris. Fifty one percent say they trust Kamala, only twenty eight percent say Trump. Some thirteen percent say neither.
Election integrity aka stop the steal. You've got forty eight percent there for Kamala, only twenty eight percent for Trump. Climate change you have forty seven percent for Kamala, twenty one percent for Trump. But now this is where things are starting to get interesting. Taxes on the middle class. Here you have Kamala actually edging Trump out. You have forty six thirty six natural disaster ly forty four to thirty three jobs in unemployment. This was the most interesting
one of all of them. This is effectively a net tie. It has forty three percent Kamala, forty one percent for Donald Trump. That was traditionally one of his strongest issues. The cost of housing, they have forty two percent Kamala at thirty seven percent Trump. We're gonna do a story
on Thursday about that. In the Sun Belt, how that's informing a lot of things here where you see some Trump edge, cost of groceries and gas forty percent for Harris, forty two percent for Trump, Immigration one of Kamala's worst issues, thirty seven percent, forty five percent for Trump. And then actually this might be the most interesting. We're gonna talk a lot about this in a little bit situation in the Middle East only thirty five percent Kamala thirty nine
percent Trump. To be fair, there's a big neither the category there, but is the worst category actually for Kamala Harris in that entire thing. Now, a lot of people, I would say, the vast, vast majority of Americans are not going to vote quote on the situation in the Middle East, but there could be enough. And we're going to talk to you about those swing state undecided voters.
Who those people are. To them, it matters a lot and for them, their views on Gaza are very important to that situation in the Middle East question, which is super interesting from the survey analysis that we've been looking at.
Yeah, well we've been talking about yesterday we covered for premiums in this will post later in the week for everybody. The way that these campaigns have shifted their ad dollars down the stretch. The Kamala Harris team is really pouring their money in two buckets. One is a contrast message on taxes, saying Trump is for the billionaires, We're going to cut taxes for the middle class, for the working class.
And you know, if this poll is to believe be believed, it seems like that relent relentless messaging regarding taxes and economic issues is paying off for Kamala Harris because she's closed that gap and in certain instances is even beating Trump on things like cost of housing and other you know, who's going to be better for taxes on the middle class, et cetera. Meanwhile, you see Trump really leaning into cultural issues in particular, running huge amounts dollar amounts of ads
on trans issues specifically. And you know, it's fascinating to me because I think the two campaigns have very different theories about who they can still persuade, who they can still turn out. But I will say, you know, if the shoe was on the other foot and it was Democrats who were just like running obsessively on some sort of like niche culture war issue, I would be like, what is wrong with you? Like, what the hell are
you doing? And so I do think there's a risk for Trump that he basically seeds the economic messaging and economic landscape to Kamala because he's still fixated on this one cultural issue that you know, the Republicans really tried to run on a similar landscape back in twenty twenty two with how much success.
I'll flip it around and I'll just say the only I think the case for it. I've increasingly been thinking about, like why, like what's the purpose, especially when I pair with the podcast strategy, is what this is a men's thing. It's mostly like, if we're all being honest, it's mostly men who are like really into the whole trans debate. I would count myself in that category. You know, for some reason pisses me off a lot more than my wife,
right or anybody else. I could. There's probably deep psychological reasons and all that for that, but we'll put that all to the side and we'll just say, if I had to guess, that's probably why. And if you specifically think about the Internet, Internet politics and all that, trans is one of the biggest issues that is out there. I'm talking Internet specifically.
This is sere.
Yeah, I mean clearly they are betting on that.
No.
And actually, for example, we don't have time for this because it literally just came out. But the massive gender gap I'm looking at right now. So the final the final AJAC what was that Atlanta Journal constitutional pole just came out of Georgia literally just dropped a few minutes ago, and they have a Trump plus thirty one among men and Harris plus eighteen women. So it's a fifty point spread between the two candidates, the biggest gap in gender than the history of the AJAC poll. And they have
some undecided, mostly amongst black men. Actually, if you look at it, so you've got seventeen point six percent of the black voters they're in the AJAC pole that are completely undecided. And I mean that's look, you look at a couple of ways, I would say it's generally bad for Kamala Harris. And so I mean, look, you know, it doesn't take a genius to look at some cross tabs about how Black Democrats specifically have always been very culturally out of step with the way that the National
Democratic Party and elites are. And so that's the context where I think it does make sense and actually, now that we put this, we're about to show a clip here Trump was talking about this issue actually in a black barbershop in the Bronx. That really could be why let's take a listen to that. This was from a couple of days ago. A five year old sons in public schools.
Right now, I have a lot of people asking me questions as far as the failing school systems that we have here in the.
Bronx, what are we going failing?
What are we going to do.
To improve that in our school system?
So we're moving them back from Washington, where you have people that don't care about New York. Frankly, you know, in Washington, I don't know if you haven't noticed. Les you got Department of Education, Department of Education. You've got half the buildings of Department of Education.
I never saw.
You don't need any of them.
You know.
I want one person and a secretary to just make sure they're teaching English. Okay, give it a little English. Okay, I'd say reading, writing, and arithmetic. No transgender, no operations. You know, they take your kid. There are some places your boy leaves the school comes back a girl, okay, without parental consent what is that all about. That's like, that's when they talk about a threat to democracy.
They're a threat.
Could you imagine without parental consent? At first, when I was told that was actually happening, I said, you know, it's an exaggeration. No, it happens.
So yeah, I think that in the context of all that, I think it's what makes the most sense. I could be wrong, right, I mean, at the same time, we've seen some pressure from some swing state Democrats to respond to this shared Brown was getting hit by it hard by Bernie Morino. He felt the need to respond and be like, no, I don't believe we should have a man and women's sports. Colin all Read in the state of Texas had a similar thing. That's a little bit
different because it's Texas. But I took the Brown one to be a lot more noteworthy to me because it's a genuine like already in a Redish state. Clearly, he felt the need that he needs to respond, even though some of his internal polls have him up by six Moreno thinks he's up by two. Clearly, it's a bit of a toss up over there. So I don't know. Yeah, I have no idea it could be like twenty twenty two, or it actually could be genuinely impactful.
I mean, I don't know. I'm just trying to put the shoe on the other foot. Like if Kama got asked a question about failing schools, where clearly the context of the question is not about like gender ideology, it's about, hey, my kids aren't getting the education that is preparing them for success in the world, and she pivoted to talk about like transgender bathrooms or something. I would be like, what is wrong with you? Like that is an insane direction to take this in And you are not at
all meeting this voter where they are. You are not at all responding to the concerns there.
And so I don't know.
I know they're putting a lot of stock into the podcast strategy, and maybe it'll pay off, you know, especially because in a presidential election turnout is going to be high.
You are going to have.
Some people who are less frequent voters. But I just have to look back at the candidates who have been like the big podcast world candidates before, and every one of them has failed. I mean, DeSantis was big in the podcast world, vivik Ramaswami, big in the podcast world, Tulsey Gabbard big in the podcast world, Andrew Yang big in the podcast world. And I just haven't seen evidence that that is a group of people who is really turning out to vote, that is really, you know.
A coalition of political power.
And so I'm skeptical, and I would be skeptical, like I said, if I saw Democrats leaning into like a niche culture war issue when you have so many undecided voters, who can I mean, the overwhelmingly voters men, women, et cetera say the economy is my number one issue. That
is what I cared the most about. And you see these issue numbers where Trump, who's always dominated on who you trust to handle the economy, is slipping and slipping and slipping and losing ground to Kamala Harris, even at a time when you know she's part of the administration people are upset about the economy. To me, it seems like a missed opportunity for him to really focus in on those bread and butter issues and relentlessly remind people
of like, weren't things better under my administration? I'm going to deliver for you, lean into some of the things that he's proposed, you know, the no taxes on tips and other of his policy. I do all the Social Security thing is a little bit of a mess because it would probably bankrupt the fund and people would end up with.
Cuts of their benefits.
But some of these things sound really good and sound populous that he could lean into that he'll just like throw out once and then you never hear about again.
Yeah.
Look, I don't disagree. I would like for things to be that way. People say they vote on the economy, what happened in twenty twenty two, People say that they vote on X, Y and z. They don't do that. I mean, it's just in terms of what really drives people out is a very it is an alchemist story.
Yeah, but it seems like in twenty twenty, I mean I do think that's part of why Trump was able to out. Now he's still lost, yeah, but he made up ground. I mean that's a big part of why those Latino voters in the Rio Grand Valley for example, were like, you know, I got a check with his name on it, and that seem pretty cool to me.
They say that, but then what are the candidates who have run after Trump, who have won in that Valley run on They didn't run on the economy, they ran on immigration, they ran on culture. So what's the truth? You know, it's one of those where and look, I'm not putting people down. I get it. I don't really know why I vote. I don't really know why a lot of people vote. But in terms of self identification,
I mean, any psychologists will tell you this. Anybody who's like, this is why I did X, Y and Z, it's very rarely the answer. It's probably more interesting to say this is why they think they did it. But the truth is is, if you look at the performance a lot of those places, most of it is on culture and on immigration. So I've really come to that. If you look at California, if you look at the movement in New York, California and elsewhere specifically amongst Latino voters
and others. Sure, economy is a big part of it, but theory of the economy and kind of culture around, like how people don't even talk about certain issues, seems equally as important in terms of orientation as well. So like when I look at that Georgia number, and I'm looking at a fifty two point spread between men and women, that's not economic. I mean, sure it's part of it, but it's a lot of it is theory. I mean
it gets to the barstool. The conservative theory I put out before about a very libertarian like let me do whatever I want to do. I mean, that's that's a frontier mindset. It's baked into the American story. I think that is probably what captures it more than anything. But I mean, if you really look at like the nitty gritty of like people who are like talking about like the school issue. The guy know, again, no offense, but you live in the Bronx, that's a New York that
is a New York local and state issue. Over ninety percent the Department of Education. Probably the only thing that can really affect is funding and actually, yeah Title nine or whatever trans stuff. That's about it if you really want to look at it. So in terms of like what they're thinking and how they're going to the ballot box, there's a lot culture just seems to be ruling the day.
But we saw in twenty twenty two they ran a lot of this stuff and it didn't work.
Yeah, I agree, Pierson was huge and like that, but that's a counter that's almost a confirmation of what I'm saying. The economy could be terrible in twenty twenty two, which objectively it was, and people which independence all came out for Democrats on the issue of abortion. They're trying to recreate that magic around this time if again, if I had to guess, it really is to try and widen again gender gap as much as possible.
And I'm sure that is their theory. I just think it's a bad theory. I just think that it's you know, it's sort of fail. It failed in twenty twenty two, not only at the like you know, federal level, but there was a whole conservative effort to stack a bunch of school boards with people who were super anti trans and that didn't really that didn't succeed either.
Even when you were talking just about the local level.
They had a lot of high profile failures in trying to stack these school boards as well. So, you know, even within the Republican primary context, like up until recently, Donald Trump wasn't re talking about these is. We noted that he really wasn't talking much about these issues. It was Ron DeSantis and others who leaned into it super hard, and even in a Republican primary context, it didn't end
up winning the day, so I'm just skeptical. I think he's his strongest issue has always been the economy, and that he's letting her get an edge on that issue I think creates a real vulnerability for him with you know, people who are late deciders, who are not super politically engaged, who are just you know, may have some fond memories of the Trump administration in that era for them economically, and it seems to me like he's not doing what he should.
To capitalize on it.
And like I said, I just know if it was the Democrats running the same strategy, I would be like, you're idiots, Like what is wrong with you talk to voters about the things they are actually actually care about. You know, if you ask voters their list of top issues, this doesn't rank anywhere in them. And just to go back really quick to like the question itself, you know, I get that obviously most of the school decisions are
you know, state and local funding issues. But what this person's really asking about is like, how is my kid going.
To fare in this world? Sure, and if you're.
An effective politician, like you don't necessarily respond directly to a question that doesn't totally make sense in the federal context.
What you want to.
Speak to is what their hopes and fears that are being expressed in that question. And I don't think that. I don't think Trump at that moment not to make too much of it.
Well, we'll see if he loses, you'll be right. Okay. So, but if the gender gap is what I think it's going to be, and this certainly could be a part of it, and if, especially if that what we talked about at the very top of our show, if those white college or if those white non college and numbers do end up being incorrect, then I mean, clearly they had a theory and I think it was mostly the
right one. Especially if they can run up the scoreboard for the popular vote, come within a point, maybe even one point five votes or one point five percent of Kamala Harris, and then run it all the way up in all swing states, that's going to be very impactful for what that looks like. Okay, as you just said, Matt Karp joined us from what is it The Center of Working Class Center for.
Working Class Politics. He's also professor at Princeton University and contributor editor or something like that to Jacobin Magazine. They did an in depth survey of voters in the state of Pennsylvania, and you know, really through a class lens, so they broke down the electorate into not just college and non college but also different economic income ranges and different occupations, so you could see which parts of the working class are going towards Donald Trump, which parts are
going toward Kamal Harris. And then they tested a range of different potential messages from the Harris camp, some of which have been tried in various forms by the Harris camp, and then a couple that were sort of, you know, their formulation of how she could ramp things up on the economic front, to see which were most resonant with which groups of voters. Super fascinating results, So let's go
ahead and get to that. Very excited to be joined this morning by a great longtime front of the show, Matt Carpo's with the Center for Working Class Politics and has some extra new, extraordinarily interesting new polling data to share with us.
Matt, great to.
See you, Cortina Man, Yeah, happy to be here. Guys.
All right, so tell us what you are up to in the state of Pennsylvania in particular.
Yeah, so I mean just just zooming out nashally for second. First, you know, Kamala Harris is struggling with working class voters, you know, by the most sort of commonly available metric, you know, voters who don't have college degrees. She's down ten eleven points double digits in Pennsylvania. Specifically, she's down between seven and as many as eighteen points a Time survey found last month. This is the constituency is that
she's most struggling to close the deal with Biden. Remember lost this group only by two to four points in twenty twenty.
He made up some ground with working.
Class voters with voters without college degrees from Hillary in twenty sixteen.
So Kamala has you know, drawn even with.
Trump and the polls, but she's still really behind with these working class voters. And so we ran a study in Pennsylvania and it was a regular poll and it showed, you know, like every other poll and neck and neck race there, it showed Kamala, you know, and.
Trump close on with lots of demographic groups.
But we ran something a little different alongside that poll, and we wanted to look at essentially the different kinds of messages that the Harris campaign is putting out, alongside a couple other sort of hypothetical messages that the campaign could put out. So we ran messages on a sort of a moderate opportunity economy message that she's been you know, hitting a lot in her in her rhetoric.
We ran a message focused on abortion and Roe v. Wade.
We ran a message based on the sort of Trump is a threat to democracy, Who's going to cancel the constitution? We ran about five different sort of versions of Kamala messages, and then we ran two messages that we'd written that we're not, you know, maybe not the sort of Bernie Sanders message I would dream up, you know, underneath my
pillow every night. But there are stronger, tougher messages, you know, talking about Washington is billionaire run by billionaires, about needing to stand up to the corporations and price gouching some things that she said, but a lot stronger in tone on.
The populist the populist sample.
That we ran, and then we ran a more progressive economic message that married that populist tone to some policy hits like expanding medicare guaranteeing a job, ending offshoring, et cetera. You know, stuff again, stuff that's in her ballpark, but
a little bit more aggressive than what she's done. And yeah, and the results showed that, you know, with Pennsylvania voters and specifically with independent voters and with working class voters, by a variety of measures, that these that the populist and the sort of economic focus message were the messages the things she's not saying essentially performed a lot stronger than the things she has been saying.
And yeah, and while you're talking to let me go ahead and put those up on the screen while you can continue to explain this, because I do think we have this this chart that we can show of how the messaging performed visa VI Trump totally.
Yeah, So, I mean this is just a crude graph.
We're still waiting to get the final report together that should come out very shortly, but essentially you can see that this populist message, which you know, complain that billionaires are getting richer, we need to stand up to the big corporations and the politicians in Washington that serve them, that didn't really focus in the way that Democrats often do, just on essentially populism as a part is an issue, you know, the Republicans and their rich friends, but actually
sort of named the enemy as all big corporations and billionaires and didn't didn't put it in as just the billionaires on the other side, unlike our billionaires in parenthesis. And that message really outperformed every other one in the bag. And the second strongest message was the one that said, expand medicare and paid leave in a four doable childcare, stop price gouging, stop off shoring. They kind of threw some sort of policy goodies into the works alongside some of the populism.
And it we were surprised to some extent.
Not only did it outperform the sort of the democratic threat, you know, democracy under siege, we need to save the constitution message, but it also it also outperformed abortion, which you know is conventionally understood is the Democrats' strongest playing card.
Well, let's go to the next one. Can we put the next graphic please up on the screen about the favorability rating, so you have there from the strong populace, how it outperformed everything from even progressive economics, modern economics is soft, etc. The democratic threat message being the one that there's been a lot of Kamala messaging on but you haven't even necessarily seen. You don't see it actually playing out even more interesting, you have it amongst independence.
Can we put the next one please on the screen, because that arguably could be the most important. And you saw the same thing here where the economics strong populism message. Both of those two were really important for independence as opposed to any of the other stuff that they were testing.
Yeah, this is favorability.
So this is essentially like we we just to clarify how the study worked. We didn't just sort of put the messages in front of in front of our sample of voters as independent items. We actually put them in in a hedge ahead against under essentially Kamala under Kamala Harris's name, with Kamala Harris's characteristics, simulating a kind of
ballot box scenario. And then we put Trump, and you know, we put the message against Trump, and we wrote a series of Trump messages also like the Harris messages, drawn from his own rhetoric, and so we have not just how much do they like the message which you saw there and you could see that they the voter Pennsylvania voters, especially the independent voters, were drawn towards the populace and the progressive messages, but they actually outperformed the Trump messages.
So with independence, the populace message beat the Trump message by eight points, the abortion message only only one by three, and the democracy message lost by one.
That's with the overall sorry, that's with overall voters.
With independence, which is a tough tougher crowd, the populist and progressive economic message is one by about three, and the abortion of democracy message is actually lost to Trump messages by six and by eight or nine points. So with that real swing voter demographic, we saw significant splits the difference between winning and losing.
Let's take a look also at G four.
This is how blue collar voters respond to these various messages.
Again, I mean it's kind of a similar.
Similar landscape, only here the strong populism comes first, but then the moderate economic message, the whole opportunity economy framing, which I kind of hate, but they apparently like pretty well at the let land second, progressive economics land third. Put G five on the screen also because this looks at non college educated workers, so blue collar workers was the last one. These are workers who have high school degree or less. Strong populism wins than progressive economics than
moderate economics. I just tell you, Matt, Like, the thing that makes me most skeptical of these results is just how closely is hues to my own, like preferred view of the world. I have to sort of check myself and I have to go back and say, like, you know, when we were going into twenty twenty two, and I, like many others, thought there was going to be a red wave, it's because Democrats were not talking about any.
Of this stuff at all.
Like, at least Kamala has sometimes talked about price gouging, She's running ads saying that Trump is for the billionaires and I'm for you. In twenty twenty two, they really didn't do any of that. It was all democracy and abortion,
and guess what, it worked pretty well. So, you know, is it possible that even though when you test these messages like sort of the overall numbers or yes, they favor the economic message, maybe the abortion message is super motivating for people to turn out, and even though it's not the preferred message over all of them, it's the one that is the most intensely felt among a key demographic group, Like, how else do we explain what happened in twenty twenty two when there was basically no economic
messaging and the state of the economy was quite a significantly worse than it is right now at this point in time.
Yeah, what troubles me there because I hear you, Crystal, and I feel the same way about like, wow, this is exactly what my prior said that there must be something wrong with the survey. But look, what actually troubles me about the twenty twenty two analogy is that this is a different electorate. I mean, you have the midterm turnout is fifty percent or in a good year like low fifties. I forget what it was in twenty twenty two, but it was, you know, between fifty and fifty five percent.
In a presidential year. The turnout is last time it was over sixty five percent. Maybe it's going to drop this year. I mean in some ways, Democrats maybe hoping it does. But you have a broader electorate. You have a sort of a less reliably less motivated electorate in terms of hardcore partisans on both sides. And yeah, I think abortion in democracy do bring out the democratic base.
You saw, you know, looking into the we of our polls, you saw essentially with professional class voters because we did a we broke down the data not just by education levels, which is the most common proxy for class, and I'll defend that as as a way of thinking about class crudely, but we also we also looked at occupation and so, yeah, you saw the blue collar numbers, and we could contrast that with professional class voters, that is, voters in credential jobs.
And every professional class voters liked every message. They actually liked the populist messages too, but they liked the abortion democracy message. They was all between plus four and plus seven points. They're all in for the Democrats no matter what. The question is, what about these disproportionately working class, lower propensity voters in places like Pennsylvania, What are they coming out to support or a potentially not coming out to oppose.
What's going to bring them out, What's going to motivate them or have them lean one direction or another? And yeah, we found so again with a blue collar group that's defined by occupation, and it's one of the two working class groups we tested. We also tested sort of service clerical workers, which we consider broadly working class also, and that's the sort of essentially the democratic working class and
the Republican working class. Right now, the blue collar group, manual workers, they're plus nineteen Trump, but even they were in the in positive territory on the populace message and close to positive on the progressive economic message, whereas the democracy message they were minus you know, fourteen or something.
So it's really I really worry that she's preaching, you know, when she's she's you know, at these rallies and eerie pa and she's got Trump on the JumboTron, and she's talking about how unacceptable he is and how he's going to cancel Roe v. Wade and oppose the Constitution. She's she's that's a large number of voters are eating that up enough to win in twenty twenty two. Maybe, look, it's all close. Maybe it's enough in twenty twenty four. Personally,
I hope so. But I don't think this is the most effective way to win the swing voters, the working class voters right now in these in these swing states.
Well, you've got the data to back it up, and luckily we'll find out.
Ye, Matt, I wanted to ask you one more question because you mentioned something that I think is interesting. You made this distinction between like the Democratic working class and the Republican working class, because in addition to testing these messages, you did test these different class groups and you got down to a much more granular level than I've seen in any other poll in terms of which class groups just based on income level are supporting which party and
based on occupation, which was also super fascinating. Can you talk a little bit about that and some of the cleavages even within what we might define broadly as the working class.
Yeah, absolutely, because you know the phrase, the keyword for us is it's not the Republican Party hasn't become the party of the working class.
We talk about class de alignment, not realignment. Of course.
You know, one might say as a sort of a left leaning group, we fear realignment because the Republicans seem to be pushing that direction. But right now the working class is really divided. It's not aligned with either party. And one cleavage. Some of the cleavages are around, you know, lines of gender in some cases race, but you know, a really vivid cleavage is in occupational category, so blue collar that is, manual workers, you know, truck drivers, manufacturers generally.
You know, this is according to sociologists, people who work with their hands. They're you know, yeah, they're Trump plus nineteen in Pennsylvania right now in our in our sample, and they were, they were, They were in some ways the most the differences were most dramatic in terms of their enthusiasm or at least their their winability, I would say with the populist and with the economic messages. Whereas the service workers that's another large portion of the working class.
Actually numerically it's it's a bit larger, and.
It's not as dramatically pro democratic as the blue collar workers.
It's. In our sample it was Harris plus six.
But it's a broadly democratic leaning working working class group. These are you know, everything from clerical workers to cashiers to a sort of people who work in service occupations.
You know.
Donald Trump, I guess at the McDonald's, you know, entered the democratic working class there in Pa. But yeah, this group was. They also really liked the populist and the progressive rhetoric. They were populism plus twelve. They were also fine with abortion. That was a plus eight. This is
a democratic group. The democracy message left them pretty cold too, though it was only it was like plus two, So I think even those voters, they're going to pull the lever for Kamala, a lot of them, But some of that enthusiasm we might see might be stronger for a more hard hitting economic message, and I do hope that
the campaign leans into that. I mean, there's some evidence that they're spending ad money in that direction, and I do think that the sort of going after Trump is a billionaire is still the sharpest tool on the table that Democrats have never actually picked up and wielded with all its power.
Yeah.
Well, potentially Elon must run around dangling a million dollar tecks.
The were just man on the planet.
Couldn't give the potential opening if they choose to take.
It, you know.
Yeah, Yeah, Matt, tell people where they can find this the survey research, and also where they can follow your work.
So yeah, the survey drops this week.
I think it should be today, and it's at the Center for Workingclasspolitics dot org. It will also be featured on at the Jacobin website. My work is at Jacobin. I'm writing a column for Harper's Magazine lately, so you can find me and you can find me on Twitter too.
I don't know that about Harper's update.
My reading listen include that great to see you, my friend, Thank you so much.
Too good to see you guys.
The Cheney question, it's been a big one here for a long time. I want to put it up there. It's one of the great questions of all time. Right. Well, Liz Cheney hit the campaign trail hard for Kamala yesterday, three separate appearances in one day. They've been putting it out everywhere. They've been talking about it, She's been tweeting about it. She now is one of the most pre eminent Cheney or sorry, Kamala surrogates in the entire country. And it's not just us who have noticed this with
a critical and a sad eye. Also John Stewart, who had the opportunity to confront Tim Waltz about it. Let's take a lesson the Cheney thing. Do we really have.
To do that? Look?
It goes broad in that look Bernie Sanders, Dick Cheney, Taylor Swift, No.
No, no, no no no, having the Cheney's on board.
Nah, you can't Dick Cheney or Taylor Swift.
No, Dick, We're a big twidget We're a big country to Taylor Swift to get us to invade.
No, yeah, no, don't.
Don't you think though that and I do this.
I believe this.
Yeah, there is still a core group of folks out there, you know, your point being and not that. Don't tread on me the Reagan piece of this, the libertarian piece, but the constitutional piece.
There are a lot of people out there. I think.
I think Liz Cheney and Dick Cheney give permission to those folks who want to find a reason to do the right thing. It doesn't mean they agree with this. We're not going to take their foreign policy decisions and discussions, you know, and implement those. We're gonna take their honest Yes.
Yeah, I don't know if I believe Tim's promised there, Crystal, I'll be honest with you.
That was uh.
I mean he's been saying that now for several Yeah, you weren't here the last time Ryan and I talked about it.
But this is a hit.
He's been saying this, uh, Amy Klobachar the whole like the that that line of Bernie Sanders, Taylor's absolutely everywhere.
You know, here's the thing, the list Cheney thing would be more justifiable. Dick Cheney is like it really is, like we would take.
The endorsement of Zaidan.
I mean, this is one of, unambiguously, in my opinion, one of the most nefarious, evil doing characters in American political history period.
So to you know, he's not a the.
Campaign trail, but she said, like, we need to thank Dick Cheney for his service. They bring them up all the freaking time. It's like, what are we doing here? And you know, Tim Walls is laying out their theory of the case, which is like, okay, well, we think that there's some persuadable probably mostly you know, sort of moderate Republican women who we can still pull into the cam Now you may think they have are allready realigned,
but that's actually not true. If you look at states like North Carolina in particular, Joe Biden underperformed among suburban women in North Carolina versus the rest of the country. So they feel like, yo, this is a large group. If we can pull one to two points more from this group, then that's going to make a big difference. But that assumes the only way you can reach this group is through odious characters like Liz Cheney or worse yet, Dick Cheney, which is like, this man had a thirteen
percent approval rating when he left office. Literally, who do you think this is appealing to? Because I don't. I am not familiar with that person. But you know, they did a different approach that was way better. That shows you don't have to go down that path in order to show bipartisan support. They went out and campaigned with
one hundred different Republicans. Some of these were like, you know, union workers who used to be pro Trump and are now pro Kamala and are up there speaking from the heart about why they think this is a better direction. That is a million times better approach than this Liz
changing session. And the last thing I'll say about it is like, because I've agonized and thought a lot about this, is it would be one thing if she was doing her whole like bipartisan outreach thing, but then coupling it with that Tim Walls Minnesota agenda where they're you know, really emphasizing these bread and butter issues and going in one afternoon where you could name off the top of
your head. Okay, here's the top three things that Kamala Harris is going to do once she's in office, because I think that's ultimately far more persuasive than Liz Chading.
Well okay, but well there you know that that.
I'm not going to say they don't talk about anything, but who could actually name what her top priorities are.
I mean, even if she could name what her actually in the piece that we're going to talk about on Thursday on housing in the sun Belt, the reporters would ask people in Nevada who are very they're moving right and predominantly they're very concerned about housing, and they're like, hey, have you heard of the housing the Kamala housing thing? They're like, what are you talking about? And then when they did hear about it, they're like, I don't believe
she'll actually do it, So very little credibility. Yeah. Also, if she was campaigning with Cheney and with Bernie, I would be like, okay, that's a little bit different. Yeah, we'll see Bernie out there. No, that's let's put this up there on the screen.
Bernie is wildly more popular than both Liz Cheney and certainly.
Chick as evident put this on the screen. Harris hit three states with Liz Cheney. They're going all in on this stuff. For example, I mean, and also it's not just hitting the trail with Liz Cheney, it is now adopting the Cheney like basically rhetoric on foreign policy, which is absolutely insane. Obviously, and for evidence of that, let's go ahead and put B two please.
Bringing the allies together is because they are fully aware of and remember to the congresswoman's point, World War two. Remember this concept of isolation. We were once there as a nation, and then Pearl Harbor happened. Let's remember recent history. Europe remembers it. Well, then when we got attacked Pearl Harbor, we jumped in. And it is because America jumped in that we were ultimately able.
To win that war.
And it should be a constant reminder to us. We have to remember history. That isolationism, which is exactly what Donald Trump is pushing. Pull out a NATO, abandon our friends. Isolationism is not insolation, It is not insulation. It will not insulate us from harm in terms of our national security. So I say that to emphasize a point that the congresswoman made, And the other point I'd make is also check out where he's been on how he thinks about America's military and service members.
So we've got McCain, we've got oh, it's isolationists not to want to fight and die for Ukraine, which is really what they believe. And look, Cheney, I'm just gonna say it. I think she's scum, and I'll give you the real thing. It's not about January sixth. It's the fact that actually, Crystal she was a lifelong pro life conservative. Okay, whatever,
I'm not pro life, that's fine. She though disavowed in this same campaign event her lifelong positions on pro life and said Dobbs Quent went too far in terms of the repeal of pro life. This woman disavowed her own sister to try and win a whisk of the Wyoming Senate seat over gay marriage. Now she's disavowing her lifelong positions when she was trying to fake being a Republican or whatever to try and win like basically voters for
her entire career. But the only thing she won't disavow is this fake anti isolationist bullshit, not that anybody is an isolationist in this thing, or her lifelong position in support of her father and the war in Iraq. So it's like what principles do you actually have women?
Actually, it's disgusting is Jadie Vance for abandoning his lifelong commitments and pro life issues to say like, let's leave it to the states.
That's not no, that's not the same thing, because he's because he's supported he supported well, hold on a second, he supported a actual national abortion ban as far as I remember correct that enjoined a ticket where he's like, Okay, we're going to leave it to the States, but has never disavowed his position on being pro life. He can't paign for the Ohio But that's not the same.
Well, Cheney's not saying that she's not pro life anymore. She's doing a similar it to Jadie Van. So saying my dabs went so far. Jade Vance said that jd Vance was in support of a national abortion ban and is now no longer in supportive national abortion ban and wants to leave it to the States.
So I'm just.
Saying, I'm not a big Liz Cheney fan, but I feel like there's a different standard being applied here, and I do genuinely think you know, she paid a major political price for bucking Donald Trump after January sixth, and I am not a Liz Cheney fan, but I think she deserves credit for that thing. In particular, going back to Kamala's comments with regard to you know, Trump's isolationism, it's just not even accurate. Like Trump is not an isolationist.
This sort of plays into his false framing that he's like the anti war candidate, which is just not true. I mean, especially when it comes to Iran. We can hear his rhetoric. He's calling for Israel to strike Iranian nuclear sites. He pulled us out of the Iranian nuclear deal,
he assassinated cost some Sola money, risking war. You know, his foreign policy record, There are areas of it where I definitely give him credit, but he stayed in Afghanistan and Joe Biden was the one who actually got us sound. So part of why I hate this framing is because, yeah, she's positioning the Democrats is like, you know, they're the party of hawks and Trump is the part of party of isolationism. It's just not even an accurate picture of reality.
And then you know, to get to more of this, it's here you are in really dire straits with Muslim American voter, with Arab American voters, And I don't think that there's a lot of people who are going to be won over by a Liz Shady endorsement, but it definitely sends a message to a lot of voters who are disgusted with your policy in the Middle East about
who has your ear and who you're listening to. You know, I still recall the fact that at the DNC they would not allow a Palestinian American on the stage, even one who was pro Kamala and wanted to make the case for why people should get on board with her campaign. The tent was big enough for Dick Cheney and certainly big enough for Taylor Swift, but it was not big enough for a Palestinia American. And you know, at the end of the day, maybe it ends up not mattering.
Maybe they win enough of those white suburban women voters. That's their theory of the case, that moving a couple points of them into their column. They think that's doable, and they think that will be a game changer for them. But they've created tremendous risks on the other side, not just among Arab American voters, either among young voters, among a range of voters of color, and you know, I think the data at this point forson now.
At the DNC, you know, just for that point, it's not even just about the Palata anything. Remember in the DNC platform that they disavowed the Iranian nuclear deal, and Kamala has now said that Iran is the greatest threat of the United States basis So okay, that's a little bit ridiculous to return to the Cheney thing.
Though.
One of the reasons that I think it is incredibly different is that age she's actually campaigning for a literal president who wants to codify Roe versus Wade.
That.
But two is that if you look at the stringent nature of her positions in the past, in which she was literally willing to disavow her own family members, it does tell me that war and commitment to whatever this fake democracy thing which happens to help war and the at least at the very least like help the neo conservative agenda, which is really what I think she cares the most about, is the pre eminent value to her.
That is fine, I actually am fine with that, but you can't be talking and disavowing your own sister spend a lifelong representative of Wyoming basically campaigning for wanting to overturn Rovers's weight and exactly have the Dobbs decision and then reverse on a dime, just simply on the question of Trump like working within the confines of yeah, Jad as far as I understand, still probably believes in an
actual national abortion band, doesn't believe it's politically feasible. Is with the candidate who says, yeah, we should leave it to the States, which is about as good as we're
con get and is still personally pro life. I just think that's very different on those questions values, and especially in terms of the candidates and with what they're campaign for than what Liz Cheney has done given her own literal past, and I mean causing rips, not just with the sister with her own father, who, if I recall, came out and attacked her for her position on gay marriage in that Wyoming stenate race, which she lost, by the way, which is the best part of this entire thing.
And I'm not just the one saying it's a lot of the pro life people are the ones who are the most upset. Again, I'm not even proluit, I don't just but it's more about saying again nothing.
I feel that there is a different standard being a play.
Jad E.
Vance literally said previously that Trump was potentially Americus Hitler, and then when it served him in order to get a Senate seat, he changes tune.
Right.
Colin Harris has shifted her positions. Trump has changed his positions on abortion a million times, and I don't hear you calling them scum.
For doing so.
It's different. For example, on Trump, I never I don't think anybody believes that Trump is genuinely pro life, or if you do, like I've got something to tell you. I think the Cheney's definitely positioned themselves in a very different direction on that. I mean Trump and the character question on Hitler and all that that's been nausey, that's been like litigated a million times. Either change his position conveniently, or he changes mind. I think he probably changed his mind.
If you ask me, you're welcome to change or have a different opinion.
I just don't see the difference, even specifically on the issue of abortion, between Jade Vance, who is deeply religious and Catholic, who five minutes ago was in support of a national abortion ban with basically no exceptions to Yeah, it's a political reality. He's on a ticket where they realize abortion is a problem for him, so he has shifted his stance.
Guess what.
Liz Cheney is doing something very similar here and recognizes. Okay, if I'm going to be acceptable to the Democratic mainstream, I see how unpopular Dobbs has been. I need to at least say, like, Dobbs has gone too far. None of this I think is particularly principled. I'm just saying I know to say she's scummed for that. There are many other reasons why I might say that Liz Cheney is gone, but I don't necessarily if you're going to apply that standard in this instance, I would say, we have.
To bring in the Sisters thing in from twenty thirteen, which I remember quite well for a lot of the liberal press agreed with me at that time for what that looked like. But then, in terms of Roe versus Wade, there's a big difference in supporting a candidate who's like, leave it to the States, which would effectively allow pro life states if they want to pass those things, as opposed to a Canada who wants to literally codify Roe versus Wade. Do you think abortion National.
Do you think abortion is murder, which Jade Vance you know, previously did, Then it's murder whether it's being done in California or Mississippi or wherever. So in any case, there have been a lot of politicians who have conveniently shifted their position on the issue of abortion post obs because they recognize how wildly unpopular the previous position of the Republican Party was, and Liz Cheney happens to be among those people.
I think it's a little bit different, but I guess we'll just agree on that or disagree on that one. On the issue of Cheney, what do we have an interesting fissure where Trump is now trying to use the Cheney support to try and win over Muslim and Arab American voters. Let's put this up there on the screen. This is a tweet or truth, I guess you will call it. He says. Arab voters are very upset. Kamala Harris the worst vice president and history of the United States.
Any low IQ individual is campaigning with dumb as a rock warhawk, Liz Cheney, who like her father, the man that pushed Bush to ridiculously goes to war in the Middle East, also wants to go to war with every Muslim country known to mankind. Remember Liz Cheney lost her congressional seat by the largest margin in history for sitting congress person. If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames.
Your kids will be off to war, maybe even the Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J. Trump in charge. For our country's sake and for our kids, vote Trump for peace. Now that's the first time that I've seen something like that actually come out, and interestingly enough, it could be part of a real concerted strategy. Let's put B seven please up on the screen, because this came out last night and I was really
interested in this quote. Trump holds edge with Arab Americans. According to a new Arab News Ugov poll, some forty five percent of respondents so they are more likely to vote for Trump, while forty three percent that they would cast their ballot for Kamala Harris. Obviously, that's within the margin of error, and they have Jill Stein at a six percent. Two percent say that they would decline to
give their choice. But I think when you put those together on top of some New York Times analysis, Crystal that you found this really does show that within swing voters and around this question of Cheney, that there actually could be some organic pushback in the Arab American community around this and potentially enough to swing the state of Michigan. Yeah.
Well, it's funny Trump's truth there.
I seem to recall last election cycle him campaigning quite happily with Liz Cha, so you know, for him, Oh yeah, the only the only question that really matters at the end of the day is how you feel about Donald Trump. Let's put V six up on the screen, though, because this explains where this true social came from, and you know why they are moving this direction of trying to make some sort of appeal to the Arab American community and some sort of pivot on gods.
In particular.
The Trump campaign's research, they write in this, found that up for Grab voters were about six times as likely as other battleground state voters who motivated by their views of.
Israel's war in Gasa.
The campaign also found that undecided voters were less likely to be white than those in the battlegrounds overall, and were likely to be black about twenty five percent of undecided voters are black, according.
To the Trump team.
And these two things go together, because we've tracked that in the polling all along, African Americans have much higher support for for Palestine, which lower support in general for the US policy of unconditional support vis a vis Israel. And so, you know, some of us have been warning all along that this was a massive risk for Democrats, not just among Arab American voters, but among a much
broader coalition. And this is what the Trump team has picked up on that in the fact, you have a real, you know, schism in the Democratic base primarily honestly between Democratic elites and the rest of the party, just judging by the polling. And so they're trying to you know, signal like you know, signal some sort of empathy or some sort of support or some sort of contrast with the Democrats here to try to pull off as many voters as they possibly can. You know, will it be successful,
I don't know. But for Democrats to be losing Arab Americans in the state of Michigan is just utterly it's disgraceful. They did it to themselves. She did it to herself. This is the issue we showed you previously where she has the lowest approval rating from voters, and you have voters who desperately want to see her being different from Joe Biden, this is the issue where you can do it.
So yeah, when you look at the polls, you know, there was a lot of conversation earlier in the cycle where it was like, oh, barely anybody even cares about Israel and Gaza. This is not that important to voters. It doesn't really matter where Common positions herself on this. But if it's important to a key group of swing voters in battleground states, then yeah, guess what, it ends
up mattering a lot. So you know, if she ends up losing, which I think is possible because of her unconditional support for Biden's policy of supporting a genocide in the Gaza strip, they only have themselves to blame for going down in flames because what the way she has consistently stood by that policy has been deeply disappointing and utterly disgraceful.
It's interesting too, if you look further in that Undecided research, they say that these people describe themselves as non ideological and then looking then at those issues that are going to push them the most, and they found that Israel Gaza is one of those where I mean again, to be one that is six times as likely as other battleground state voters to be moted by motivated by is pretty ridiculous considering I mean, Israel, God's Middle East in
general usually at the bottom tier of most people's ranking if you look at the overall aggregate, even amongst young voters that we've seen before, but with this tiny slice and with the Arab Americans, we could be looking at a real thing. I mean, I'll be honest, I don't one hundred percent understand it, but it's clearly a real phenomenon.
Because what is it we have that mayor of the Muslim majority town Amtrak, I forget exactly the day, but the guy doors Trump apparently Trump has a office that they opened there, which everybody in Michigan was like, why we you do this? But now I think we do know why about their micro targeting data for that, so it certainly is something.
Now.
Again, like I said, the reason I don't particularly understand it is for all being honest, like Trump, you know, definitely is a lot more pro Israel than commonly, no doubt about it.
First, and his coalition is more consistently pro Israel. So if even if he's just a creature of like you know, his supporters and donor network, he's going to end up in a much more pro Israel position.
Yeah.
So like for example, we have Michael Tracy pulled this out. This is from a more recent I think it was a town hall on Trump asked about Iran and nuclear facilities and whether Israel should be able to hit them. Let's take a listen.
They asked him, what do you think about what do you.
Think about Iran?
Would you hit around? And he goes, as long as they don't hit the nuclear stuff, that's the thing you want to hit, right, I said, I think he's got that one wrong. Is that the what you're supposed to hit? I mean, it's the biggest risk. We have nuclear weapons, the power of nuclear weapons, the power of weaponry. You know, I rebuilt the entire military jets, everything I built it, including nuclear and I hated to build the nuclear but I got to know firsthand the power of that stuff.
And I'll tell you what.
We have to be totally prepared. We have to be absolutely prepared.
But when they asked him that question, the answer should have been hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.
All right, So if we're all being honest here about what exactly that looks like. I mean, it's one of those where I didn't really want to like put this woman down yesterday, but we played that video of that what was it the side of the American voters and she's like, I'm voting for Trump to punish Kamala Harris, And I was like, look, I understand that, Like I'm not going to shame you, but if your ongoing concern is about that, I mean, Trump has shown literally no
care whatsoever. Now listen, you know it's not my top priority, so whatever, But if that's your top priority, I don't get it, you know, in terms of like this is the most pro Saudi you know, pro like Golf Arab Emirates state president. Yeah, in modern history, the Saudi's and the Gulf have a real plan for Gaza. It's called they get to take it over and we get to fund it. I mean, if you support that, it's fine,
you know, but I don't know, I don't understand. I don't know how you can be like the whole like genocide person and also vote for Donald Trump. Again, it's not my top priority, so it's not like something that keeps me up at night in terms of like, oh, how to agonize for my vote. But if it is, then you know, that's just one of those where I find myst Fine.
Yeah, no, it doesn't make any logical sense, bottom line. And he's consistently at this point been hitting Joe Biden from the right on him not doing enough to support Israel or another example of that.
This is b five.
He got asked a question about exactly this issue, and he says Biden's trying to hold Babe back, no evidence of that. He probably should be doing the opposite. Actually, let's take a listen to that.
Here.
More than I think it makes it easier, I'm going to talk to Prime Minister Dan God about it.
He's called me, Yes, he's called me.
I have not spoken.
I'm going to speak to it.
Probably now you want to tell them.
Well, look, you're doing a good job. Biden is trying to hold him back. Just so you understand, Biden is far superior to the to the VP. He's trying to hold him back and he probably should be doing the opposite.
Actually, I'm glad.
That BB decided to do what he had to do.
But it's moving along pretty good. Everything's moving a lin.
So there you go.
As we pointed out yesterday, Sar, you flagged this, some sixty three percent of israelis.
For Donald Trump.
And one thing that I wanted to point out about the polling is there had previously been a poll showing Jill Stein leading among I believe it was our American voters in some of these insation I thank you, in several of the swing states. So this polling is really dissonant from that. So just to put an asterisk there. But the other thing I saw recently, I don't know if you saw this Aga, that there's been two separate polls that showed dyl Stein is now taking war from
Donald Trump than from Kamala Harris. And if these survey results are correct, that would make some sense because if it's basically like Arab American voters have ruled out Kamala and now they're deciding between the other options, Jill Stein being one of them and Trump being the other one, it makes some kind of sense. So just who knows if that's accurate? Who knows if this poll is exactly accurate. But I think there's no doubt Kamala Harris has a
massive issue with these voters. It's one hundred percent of her own making. And then the only other thing I'll say is with regard to Jill sin potentially taking more from Donald Trump, you know, just you have to have some humility about how all of these things are going to work out. It was considered written in stone that
she would be more deaf frumental to the Democrats. And you know, voters are more complex beings than they're often given credit for, and so you know, it may turn out to be the case that she's more of an issue for the Republicans than for Gamala Harris, which would be kind of wild.
Yeah, it would be crazy. How About she just gets to run and people can decide for themselves, you know, how about that? I think that probably works out the best. So in general, when we think about all of this, I do think it is pretty interesting. Why don't we put the last b eight please up on the screen. This was from it says the AP reported that sixty four percent of Muslims nationwide supported Biden in twenty twenty.
Thirty five percent supported Trump, and in heavily Arab American counties in Michigan, voters went for Biden by a little less than seventy percent. So just to underscore what the flip of all of this would look like, I mean, there is an open question how much of this is gaza. I mean, how many of these people are voting for Trump because of the economy or for something like that. It's very possible, right, as they correctly point out, it's not just Muslim voters. You've got a lot of Christians
who are Arab American as well. They potentially could be voting on that. I mean, there's a lot of different reasons why people come to America and they vote, So the shift in that could be I mean, could be men, right, it could be cultural issues. There's a lot of different reasons for why people might shift in different directions. But nonetheless, it is certainly a major phenomenon.