Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal.
Indeed, we do a lot of interesting things that are happening. So Kamala went on Fox News yesterday for a very contentious interview. We'll show you all the highlights of that. And Trump also was on Fox News for like a women's focus town hall. Very different vibes, i would say, between the two of them. So we'll share some of that with you as well. Also have some new pulling for you and Harry Unton taking a close look at how well Kamala is doing with white women. Will they
ultimately allow her to cruise into the White House? We will see Biden's still very mad at Nancy Pelow's apparently they still have not spoken since he dropped on of the race. Interesting revelations there and some reported tension between the Kamala Harris and Joe Biden camps as well. We are finally, I think, going to take a look at the Florida real estate market today. We teased it the other day and then we talked too much and some
other segments, so we just pushed it to today. So we wanted to make sure we had time to do that one justice because it is a very interesting story. We also have our eyes of course on Israel in the Middle East, former Israeli IDF. Actually someone who's high up in the IDF issued a dire warning about the future of the state of Israel. Who want to bring you that as well as some other developments and a couple of noteworthy CNN moments that we wanted to react to for you. So that one's always.
Yes, exactly, always fun to get that into the show. Before we get to that, just thank you to everybody who has been signing up premium subscription. So we're getting down to the wire here. As a reminder, you will get our exclusive election map and prediction before election day. If you are a premium subscriber all of our content with Logan, which is our election forecaster, as well as
stuff that we're going to tease on election nights. You're going to take advantage of that Breakingpoints dot Com and you can become a premium sub now. As Crystal said, we had a very contentious, certainly interview with Fox News. Brett Bayer sat with Kamala Harris roughly twenty eight minutes. A couple of different sections we wanted to go through
here for everybody. That shows some of the highlights for what you think you could get out of it and more importantly, what maybe some swing people could have gotten out of it. First was on the section of immigration. Let's take a listen.
There's a lot of people that look back at what you said at twenty nineteen when you first ran for president, and there have been changes, and you've talked about some of them. When it comes to immigration, you supported allowing immigrants in the country illegally to apply for driver's license, to qualify for free tuition at universities, to be enrolled in free healthcare.
Do you still support those things?
Listen, that was five years ago, and I'm very clear that I will follow the law. I make that statement over and over again, and as Vice President of the United States, that's exactly what I've done.
Not to mention before you.
If that's the case, you chose a running mate, Tim Walls, governor of Minnesota, who signed those very things into state law. So do you support that?
We are very clear, and I'm very clear as is Tim Walls, that we must support and enforce federal law, and that is exactly what we will do.
That capped about what I would say ten minutes or so on immigration.
He started with immigration and stayed there for a long time.
Yeah, it was I would say it was about half maybe you know, roughly yef something like that worth of the interview. So anyway, I mean, it's one of those where it was obvious that they were going into that that's about the best that she's going to get this whole. I what did she say? It was like, Well, that was five years ago, so that was certainly something I picked up on. I don't know. I mean, you and I have very I usually I think we come into this with the same frame, but I don't this one.
I'm mystified. You think she did very well, so.
I should be so let me say, first of all, to set up like the totality of the inner Brett bhare, I don't think you would disagree. Very aggressive in a way that he would never be with Trump. Not that he wouldn't ask Trump tough questions. I think he would. But from the very first question, he's cutting her off, doesn't even let her finish a sentence. You know, they're really going back and forth. We'll show you a moment later on where he really deceptively edited this Trump comments
about enmy from within. So he clearly came into this thinking like Trump had called out Fox News for even doing this interview and put pressure on obviously Brett Baer in advance of like you better really hold her feet to the fire. He's feeling the pressure of the Fox News audience. And it was very clear that his goal was, like I'm going to be aggressive and I'm going to
try to really get her off balance. So you know, on like this question, there is no good answer here for her because she has changed her positions so dramatically on any number of things, and this is always going to be you know, the best she's come up with is like my values haven't changed here. I think she handles what is again effectively an impossible question for her to really be honest about, which the real answer is, you know, politically, in twenty twenty, I was trying to
run to the left of Bernie Sanders. Now politically I'm trying to like pivot and appeal to a general election audience, So my pandering strategies have changed. Like, that's the honest answer. She obviously can't give that answer, so to just be like, listen, have I done any of that as Vice President of the United States. No, I've enforced the law. That's what I'll do it going forward. I think that's about the
best you could do. My assessment of the overall interview is not that I like love every answer, because obviously I have many significant policy differences with Kamala Harris, in particular on immigration, and also they touched on Israel and Iran later on. Of course, the framing, yeah, the framing of that from Bett Brett Baerr is basically like, you know, why aren't you at war with Iran already? That's the framing of you know, that's not unique to Fox News.
That was also the framing the debate. So it's not that I love the substance of her answers on a number of these. But she handled an adversarial interview that was very aggressive and at times actively dishonest better than she handled the view ladies. Which is kind of interesting, right with Kamala. It's all about does she take it seriously and did she prepare. That's why she did so well in the first debate against Joe Biden, That's why she did so well in the debate against Trump. She
clearly took this interview very seriously and came prepared. And you know, I don't think there was I know that this is a little bit of a rorshack test that the Trump people think she did terrible or whatever. But
she never got thrown off balance. She never spluttered, she never got angry, she did not take the bait when multiple times Brett Baer was trying to get her to like trash Trump supporters, and so yeah, I think in what was a difficult adversarial situation, overall, she handled herself quite well.
I'm trying. Look, I'm trying hard to color my bias on this one, but I don't see that at all. I mean, on the immigration answer again, like look, if you're a and again I'm trying to put on the mind of a swing state voter, of somebody who is genuinely independent. So I'll start with what I thought she did well, And actually the Fox people agreed she got her licks in against Trump. Basically every pivot was but Trump,
but Trump, but Trump. And we're going to show people some of the clips in a bit about Biden and the inability to address the mental acuity. But that's where she did kind of sput her right on, Well, when did you first notice that Joe Biden's mental faculties had declined? Zero?
Answer in terms of immigration. I mean, I thought what was so weak about it was actually just not only the flip flop of the dishonesty around the position, but in the beginning too, there was a lot of trying to basically turn it around as if her administration had no power in this situation. So Brett had asked her a question something on along the lines of like, why have there been X million people illegally led into the country while you were under the while you a vice president?
And she dishonestly is like, well, in the first week of Congress, we presented a bill and they didn't pass the bill. And that's why it's the Republican's fault. It's like, hold on a second, as Ryan laid out yesterday, that's an amnesty bill. But second, this is it ignores like all the executive action over that three and a half years. So he kept trying to interrupt her to get at that. Now, I agree it was aggressive, but I mean I don't
have an issue with people interrupting politicians. People should interrupt people more. But the point is that on that in particular, for those first ten minutes, the command and the spin just leaped out at me dramatically. Again, if you if you don't have a deep familiarity with amnesty bills and all that, like, maybe that came across differently. She certainly stood her ground, I think for what liberals could take away as like, yeah, she stood up to Brett Baer
and to Fox News. There's no question it was aggressive as hell. Right, it really was like the lions Den. We should give politicians props, they should do more of that. So I don't want to totally discourage you, but I don't know how we could classify that as good as a good performance.
Here's what I would say. I mean, Trump is reportedly literally calling her retarded. So you can't look at this interview and be like this person. She really held her own and was able to pivot. I thought Brett asked her a, you know, really challenging question, played the clip of her talking about the transgender surgeries in prison, and she actually had a great response. She was like, number one, this happened under Trump, So when did you ask him
about that? And number two, he's spending two hundred and fifty million dollars on these ads. Do you really think this issue is like top of mind for Americans to try and pay their bills, et cetera. And again, that's a very very challenging question for her to have to deal with, given how she's trying to like buck the two liberal label et cetera, et cetera in her campaign strategy, which is to shift to the right. That's a very challenging question, and I thought that was about as good
an answer as you could possibly give. Also, another highlight in my opinion from her was he was asking her like, Okay, well, if Trump is so bad, why is half the country set to vowarm? She was like, it's a presidential election, it's not supposed to be easy. And I also thought that was a fantastic answer, because you know, he again challenging question. He wanted her to give him some clippable moment,
like basically calling the Trump based deplorable or whatever. And yet he tried to get her to go down that path, and she just wouldn't do it at all. As you said, she kept pivoting back to Trump and her position on that. So no, overall, I thought, in a very challenging circumstance, she handled herself quite well and certainly exceeded my expectations of what she was even really capable of in the circumstances.
And so that's kind of my point is, like, you know, the caricature, which has been at times really justly deserved of Kamala Harris is that she can't think on her feet. If she's off the teleprompter, it's just a hot mess. You know that she's word salad and all over the place, And we didn't see that in this In this exchange, she was quite capable and competent, and you know, proved
that she deserved to be in that slot. And so when I think about swing voters and how they might process this, Number One I don't really think swing voters really are processing this. To be honest with you, I'm not sure not. I mean, I don't know what's going to move people at this point. I have no idea. But it's probably more likely to be you know, the podcast appearance with or the appearance with Charlemagne or some of the more cultural figures than it is a Fox
News interview. But some of this might break through. But if you're just looking at that in the vibe, you're like, oh, this is a capable person, Like this is a strong person. This is a tough person. She's able to hold her own and push back. And so that's why I think that she did herself some favors in this interview, not just with Democrats who were very happy with her performance, but with those potential swing.
Voters as well. See I didn't get the competent part. Again, I'm trying hard to color my bias here, but I didn't see it. It's let's let's play a wrong track answer. For example, we need to play more of this for people.
Of people.
That is about turning the page on rhetoric that people are frankly exhausted of bread more than to.
Tell the country is on the wrong track. They say the country is on the wrong track. If it's on the wrong track, that track follows three and a half years of you being vice president and President Biden being president. That is what they're saying, seventy nine percent of them. Why are they saying that? If you're turning the page, You've been in office for three and a half years.
And Donald Trump has been running for office.
But you've been the person home on some what you.
And I both know what I'm talking about. You and I both know what.
I'm actually do. What are you talking about?
What I'm talking about is that over the last decade, people have the cower. But listen, over the last decade, it is clear to me and certainly the Republicans who are on stage with me, the former chief of staff to the President Donald Trump, the former defense secretaries, national security advisor, and his vice president one that he is unfit to serve, that he is unstable, that he is dangerous, and that.
People are exhausted.
Well, people aren't tired of that, that's the case. Why is half the country supporting him? Why is he beating you in a lot of swing states? Why if he's as bad as you say that half of this country is now supporting this person who could be the forty seventh president of the United States.
Why is that happening.
This is an election for president of the United States. It's not supposed to be easy.
I know, but it's not supposed.
To be It is not supposed.
To be a misguided, stupid what God.
I would never say that about the American people.
And in fact, if you listen to Donald Trump, if you watch any of his rallies, he's the one who tends to demean and belittle and diminish the American people.
He's the one who talks about an enemy within, an.
Enemy within, talking about the American people, suggesting he would turn the American military on the American people.
So I don't disagree to that last part, But on that wrong track, that was a skillful thing, right, But on the wrong track. She was like, listen, you know Trump has been around for ten years. That's a terrible Like when I watched that live, I actually cringed at the She was like, oh, well, Trump has been around,
you know what I'm talking about. He's like, I don't know what you're talking about, actually, And honestly, I don't know what she's talking about, like the idea that because Trump has been in politics for a decade, that you're not responsible for the direction of the country. And look, if we're being honest, was she running the country? Like
obviously no, right, she's the freaking vice president. But she's also the one who doesn't want to put any real distance between herself and Joe Biden, which we're about to get into in a little bit. And so that answer, I thought it was her worst because the seventy nine percent on wrong track, the perfect idea of like, well, don't you bear some responsibility for this? There's no answer but Trump, Now, I want to be clear, you might
win based on that. As we see, Trump is a very polarizing figure, and he's certainly they are running the same case that Hillary and Biden did, Biden obviously a little bit more effectively. That Trump is a unique threat and all of that, and the Trump specter is bad. And you know, she basically at every turn pivoted towards don Trump. But if you look at those swing state polls and you see the number one reasons that people are not supporting her, it's number one. I don't know
what you're actually gonna do. But two is I'm really unsatisfied with the direction of the country right now, and so for me, but Trump, I mean, that's not a competent answer, Like, that's not one that is well thought out. It is not one of a new vision. What is it. The closest that she got was just my presidency won't be a continuation of Joe Biden. That is not a
strong declaration of change. And what is empirically a change election now, change is interpreted very differently by very many people. So that's why I was like, if you're watching this, you're a swing state person, I don't know how you couldn't, like feel how you could feel satisfied with an answer like that. Put the policy aside, just appear like, hey, I want something to change wrong track. And she's like, but Donald Trump, that that doesn't seem to cut it. Yeah, I disagree.
So here's what I would say, first of all, on the on the latter part that we more or less agree on, Yeah, you should never fallow continuinely continually they're trying to be her into trashing Trump support evens oh, what would you call them?
This guide?
And she's like no, and then she skillfully pivots to but the other guy. He's doing that all day long. And by the way, you don't have a whole lot to say about that, and we'll get to the very dishonest framing of the enemy within commas that he does in a moment. But what she's referring to, I think we all know, like this is the Trump era, and the dissatisfaction with the state of the country certainly predates
their time when offic was. In fact, I went back and looked it up after January sixth, the right Track number was at eleven percent. I remember that eleven percent. So listen, do Joe Biden, Kama Harris bear plenty of
responsibility for people being dissatisfied? Of course they do. And given the fact that she has decided she is not really going to break with Biden on anything, including a disastrous policy in the Middle East, where she one hundred percent should break with Joe Biden, given that that's the landscape that she's showed in the political strategy that she's chosen. Yeah, I think this is about as good as you can give.
And it's not without some merit, because again, let's all be honest, this is not the Joe Biden era of politics that we're living in. It's the Donald Trump era of politics. He has defined all of the fault lines in American politics since he wrote down that Golden Escalator. And that's how you end up with you know, Liz Cheney on one side and you know RFK Junior on the other. It's all just about it's not about issues. It's just all about how you feel about this particular person.
You know.
It gets to like what Tim Walls talks about this just very normally, like wouldn't you like to go back to the Thanksgiving dinner table and not have it be ugly and vitriolic and just be able to have like normal discussions. Again, it's really Donald Trump who has defined the contours of this era. And so yeah, I mean, is it kind of like politician easily to get out of any responsibility for of course it is, like, of course,
I would be dishonest if I didn't say that. But she's also not without a point that he really has has been the central character defining the tenor tone and direction of politics. And it's part of what to me is so frustrating about this era because it does make it impossible to really have policy discussions about the future of the country and you know, really be able to
vote based on those things. Because he everything just becomes this dividing line about your personal opinion in the person of Donald Trump, and it kind of shuts down all other forms of politics. So, you know, is it one hundred percent honest, No, of course, But does she have a point that he is the defining character of this era and that there are millions upon millions of people,
including plenty of swing voters. And we'll get to this in the poll section, especially like you know, suburban women, of abortion, all kinds of other things. Are there millions of voters who have put aside all kinds of other concerns or policy priorities to just like vote against Donald Trump because they want this era to be over and they don't want to quote unquote go back as KMin
has been framed me. Yeah, there are. And so I do say think that that speaks to a central concern that a lot of people have in the sense that this era has been exhausting and they want to turn the page from it.
Yeah.
On a vibe level, I totally understand what you're saying, But I mean, and I think a lot of the people who agree with that frame are already voting for her. So all the people who are on the fence about where to go, a lot of them do remember the Trump era fondly, and they don't remember the Biden years as good, in particular on inflation and elsewhere. Now to your point about the whole enemy within thing, this is
I agree, this was a pretty egregious mistake. Or I don't know, but maybe possibly it was the way that they wanted to frame it. But she kept bringing up the enemy within comments. We covered them on our show on Tuesday previously. People can go back and watch it.
But she brought that up repeatedly in the interview. Just at the end there, as you saw, they decided to play a clip of Trump responding on that topic at a Fox News town hall, but not actually the comments themselves, and that was, in my opinion, this is the one that's going the most viral. Yeah, from what I've seen amongst the left, ye go.
And just a minor correction on that. So it's not just that they played his response in a town hall. They edited out the first part of his response where he doubled down in these comments and also said what I mean by that is, you know Pelosi, ship, et cetera. So they took the one portion of his comments that they could use to spin it as see, he doesn't mean that, he's being totally reasonable and left out the part from their own event where he was like, no, I mean the left.
I mean, in my opinion, that's stupid, because you should just play the damn comment if you're going to play anything, and it might be I wouldn't played anything. I just left the lady to talk because I think that that's one of those But if you're going to play something, you shouldn't be editing this stuff down anyway. So let's take a listen to.
That question to the former president.
Today, Harris Faulkner had a town hall and this is how he responded.
I heard about that they were saying. I was like threatening, I'm not threatening anybody. They're the ones doing the threatening. They do phony investigations. I've been investigated more than Alphonse Capon.
He was the greatest nection. Know it's true, we don't but think of it.
It's called weaponization of government. It's a terrible there.
So I'm sorry, and with all due respect, that clip was not what he has been saying about the enemy within that he has repeated when he's speaking about the American people.
That's not what you just showed.
He was asking.
No, no, no, that's not what you just showed. In all fairness and respect.
To you, the question that we asked him.
He didn't show that. And here's the bottom line.
He has repeated it many times, and you and I both know that. And you and I both know that he has talked about turning the American military on the American people.
He has talked about going.
After people who are engaged in peaceful protest. He has talked about locking people up because they disagree with him. This is a democracy, and in a democracy, the president of the United States, in the United States of America should be willing to be able to handle criticism without
saying he'd lock people up doing it. And this is what is at stake, which is why you have someone like the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff saying what Mark Milly has said about Donald Trump being a threat to the United States of America.
So yeah, there you go, Like, I agree, it wasn't good, but you know that's where you were saying previously she didn't get angry. She actually did kind of get angry. I mean, maybe it's effective or not, but it was clear like she was really roaring to go at it. Now from what Brett said, Brett was like, I think she came into this she wanted to score some good hits against Trump on Fox News. And He's like, I
think she accomplished that. He was like, I also think that she came into this one to score some good hits against us, and like that clearly was the moment that they were looking for. From what I've seen, like on the liberal side, that's the one that's probably gone the most viral.
I agree.
It means I do on think it's a good look for Fox. They should just play the damn comments. I don't know why they did that.
Well.
It also just makes it like it takes it on of the realm of debatable whether it was like a fair and just tough interview or whether it was dishonest Partison, because we can show you what he actually said. So what they did is they took out, they clipped out the peace of his answer that they thought best served their ends to be like, hey, it doesn't mean that come on, you know, Donald Trump, he's just joking around
when literally they're same event. When he was actually asked that question, his first response was to double down and say, no, I do mean my political opponents. So let's take a listen in contrast to what he actually said in response, so you can see just how dishonest it was.
They're using your words to say that you are not for crime and keeping particularly women safe in ads. I want to take a look at what you said and just tell me.
Let's let's watch it if we have to.
Yeah, we have two enemies.
We have the outside enemy and then we have the enemy from within. And the enemy from within, in my opinion, is more dangerous in China, Russia and all these countries because if you have a smart president can handle them pretty easily. But the thing that's tougher to handle these lunatics that we have inside, like Adam Schiff, I call him the enemy from within.
Mister President. Kamala Harris said, you sounded unhinged and unchecked power is in our future.
What I thought it was a nice presentation.
I wasn't.
I wasn't an unhinged you.
Know they are. They're a party of sound bites there. Somebody asked me, can they be brought together? You know, it's very I never thought, really, I wasn't thinking like they could because they are they're very different, and it is the enemy from within and they're very dangerous.
So anyway, there you go. It's like that's what he actually said. And so clearly they knew she was going to bring that up, right because this has been, you know me, for good reason, a major point they've been bringing up on the trail in recent days, and so in order to rebutt it, they picked out this incredibly like just decept version of what he's been saying about this, so they can see, you know, he's fine, what are you talking about? There's nothing, no problem there. And you
know that's where, like I said, it gave her an opportunity. Now, the thing is that Kamala Harris doesn't always rise to those opportunities like this gave her a chance both to go against Donald Trump, to really articulate in a forceful way how disturbing and disgraceful she thinks those comments and others are right in a way that Look, we saw in twenty twenty two, these sorts of concerns about Donald Trump do animate a lot of voters and have been
successful for Democrats in terms of electoral performance. And she gets a chance to push back on Fox News and you know, call out Brett for not showing the full context here and not actually showing the comments that Trump made. So it's a good moment for her with the basse. I also think it's a good moment for her with any potential swing voters. Again, as I said before, how
much does this any of this matter? I don't know really, but anyway, I thought that was, like you said, soccer, probably her strongest moment, Oh, definitely in this interview.
Now to the weakest think Actually maybe I don't know, most journalistically, the most consequential electorally, I'm not so sure. This is on Biden's mental acuity. I thought this was absolutely her worst answer of the night. Let's take a.
Lesson called Donald Trump, He's misguided. You say, now, he's unstable, he is unstable, he's not well, you say, he's mentally not stable.
Ask you this, and.
You told interviewers that Joe Biden was on his game that ran around circles on his staff. When did you first notice that President Biden's mental faculties appeared diminished.
Joe Biden.
I have watched in from the Oval office to the situation room, and he has the judgment and the experiment and experienced to do exactly what he has done and making very important decisions on behalf of the American people.
Joe Biden is not on ballot, understand Donald Trump.
Donald Trump, he talked about it and Donald George Cloon.
Within a few minutes of talking to Biden a fundraiser, that he thought this was not the same Joe Biden that we saw on the debate.
Stay.
Trump is on the ballot.
I understand you met with him at least once a week for three and a half years.
You didn't have any concerns.
I think the American people have a concern about Donald Trump, which is why the people who know him best, including leaders of our national security community, have all spoken out, even people who worked for him.
All right, Yeah, I mean I thought that was wild. It was like, Joe Biden, what did he say? He has done what he has done for the American people, And then it was Joe Biden is not on the ballot, which, frankly, you should be saying that a lot more. But there is no real distance. The only other line, I guess we didn't have it in there was maybe park What do you think.
Would be the best answer for her here?
That's a little bit. Did any amount of gaslighting that these people did? It's like, I don't really know because he hasn't dead to right.
If yeah, that's that's the problem, is like there is no good answer really to this question, because if you admit, like I've been seeing this dude going downhill for a while, which is probably the honest answer, Like, you can't really say that, right, So I think I think it's going to be very important question for history. Who knew what when? With regard to Joe Biden.
Oh, I've been reading Bob Woodward's more recent book, and there's some wild stuff in that.
And I think, you know this, this tape will be entered into the annals of history in terms of, you know, the level of spin and the level of gas lighting of the American people that occurred at the time. As a political matter, I don't know that there's really a better answer that she could give than listen, it's not him on the ballot. He's fine, well and good, and I saw make great decisions and it was all fine.
And you know, I'm not admitting any wrongdoing here on my behalf because I was covering anything up and Donald Trump is really where the focus is. And frankly, you know, I actually thought that these questions would be more of a sticking point for the American people after the you know, switch from Biden to Kamala. But I actually think most people do feel the way she articulated, like, all right, he's that's the past. We're moving forward. It's me versus
Donald Trump. So let's talk about that. So yeah, is it like, is it dishonest? Yes, it's dishonest. Is a great look for her to a tough Gordon? Of course not. But I'm not sure that there was really a better answer on the table for her to give, at least I'm not smart enough to really come up with one. Given like the position she's taked down.
I was gonna say, I just you know the answers. Don't put yourself in that position. It's an insane one. I don't disagree. Actually, Americans have an amazing capacity for temporary amnesia. But from the assassination attempt.
They were just so relieved he stepped aside. I think they were like, all right, he stepped aside.
He did.
At the end of the day, he did the thing he was supposed to do. Now, I would say it's unconscionable he's still even occupying the White House, given the fact that, I mean, we really were on the brink of a massive war in the Middle East. We really have no sense of who's actually making these decisions. I'm not sure whether it's better or worse for him to be making the decisions or Bret McGirk or these other, you know, genocidal terrorists that apparently are cool with what
we're doing in the Middle East. So, you know, I think it's unconscionable that we're in that place. But I also have to acknowledge the political reality that most people are like, hell, he stepped aside, so we're moving forward.
Yeah, it's certainly possible. So there you go. That was the review of everything there Trump. Let's move to him. He participated in two town halls yesterday. One was with Fox News. It was a Fox News women town hall. It does appear, by the way, from Michael Tracy's reporting that a lot of these ladies were like pro Trump already Republican activists. You know, this has been a real issue. I just want to say this at the top, because all of these town halls. So Univision did a town
hall with Kamala a couple of days ago. There was actually not that much that came out of it. I listened to most of it, and I realized why from what Tracy said, because he was in attendance. Yeah, is that most of those people were basically like organized by
some Democrat cutout group. Same thing on this one. And then, by the way, there was another Univision town hall just last night with Donald Trump where apparently it was the same thing where a lot of these people were actually paid to attend, and so.
They went a modeling. This is on Michael Tracy. The audience numbers were paid by a modeling agency that contracted me.
Yeah.
So anyways, the point is, like, you know, even these town halls are becoming a total farce. But regardless, we got some things that are out of it. Here is Donald Trump answering a question on immigration.
Let's take a listen to your President Trump.
Thank you so much for everything you have done for this country. You fight first in the past, you fight first right now, and I know you will fight for us in the future. My name is Stream England and my family escaped the communist Vietnam thirty years ago. And this is my question for you. America is a land
of opportunity and it's policy welcome immigrants legally. How different is your policy versus Harris when it comes to securing our borders and only accepting people to us without causing any issue to our country.
On the borders, Well, people coming legally.
Yeah, we want to have as many people come in as possible, but they have to come in legally. We don't want murderers, we don't want drug dealers, we don't want human traffickers, we don't want people from prison that are being let out after murdering somebody.
All right, just took a lot of shots at Commas. Now it's Trump's turn. This is basically in total violation of everything Trump has previously said ever on immigration, including all of the people who work for them. Why do I know this because I literally cover the White House and I also know a lot of these people, so I know that if any Democrats said this that they would freak out. But this is pure If you want to really look at elon Musk's like major contribution to
Donald Trump. I would put this all the way up at the top for the all in and elon Silicon Valley support because this is a classic Silicon Valley talking point. We have to have as many people who come in as possible. We just have to secure our border. I mean, that is like the previous that's like a twenty twenty Democratic,
a twenty twenty Democratic Party position on immigration. And part of the problem for a lot of Republicans is there are not people who have any like credibility on the issue with the base or frankly on anything to be able to call Trump out. There's no internal policing on this literally that exists. The money is behind it, and a lot of the immigration people just I mean, look, I get it to a certain extent because they're like I think the Democrats be worse, so they just don't
say anything. But you know you're gonna if you're going to police like like, for example, I know Jade Vans doesn't agree with this, I know for sure he's never said anything like this in the past. But a lot of the people who are on the Republican side, they just let a lot of the stuff slide. I think it's nuts.
Yeah, I mean, look, if his position is genuinely like let us he said, what let as many people as possible.
That's an insane thing to say. As a Republican who's an immigration restriction, that is literally an insane thing to say. And for everybody out there is we support high skilled immigration and all that. Even people who support high skilled immigration support caps and numbers of what that should look like. First of all, Trump has not even said anything about high skilled immigration a lot in the past except what did you say, staple of THESA to every PhD in
the country. Sounds like a real genius money laundering operation for every university. But okay, move past.
I support the.
I support the let as many people in as possible, That's my point.
But it's crazy if you really believe in immigration restriction. This is a horrible thing for the country. Especially this is the basic position of comprehensive immigration reform, which is legalize everybody here and then just throw it all wide open.
Yeah, but he's still wants to do the like, you know, uh, mass deportation. You know, round everybody up in every town, including some of the people who are here legally like the Haitian migrants in Springfield, o Hioive.
So let's go back.
So in any case, he's it's not like he's gone soft on these things. It's just, you know, after his what do you call it, like very bloody, very bloody immigration roundup that then I guess, at least an answer to this woman who's herself an immigrant, he says we should let his man this. Who the fuck knows what this man wants to do or what he really means. It's just, you know, it is I think your point is the most important one, which is the people who
claim their whole politics around immigration restriction. I am not one the people who are on that side. They will hear this and they will say not yeah.
And that's word. Well, that's what bothers me is that Trump.
It's the culture personality. Ultimately, that's what it is.
It has to be called out, no matter and especially allegedly, you know, by the so called like leader of the party, because these things do matter. Look, I get we're in a nothing matters era, but you know that actually is the default position of the old school GOP, of which Trump has always claimed to move past. So which is it?
And I do know that Trump, in particular this time around, is much more amenable to whatever the highest bidder wants him to do and a huge amount of his new Silicon Valley money, like this is the position that they have. So yeah, I think the main point is that on the act, amongst like actual immigration people, I see very
very few who are actually attacking Donald Trump. I get it. Yeah, maybe you'd be better or whatever, but that doesn't mean that you want to let standard bearer to have this position. Let's move on to IVF. This Trump has stold this story before. I've heard this, but it is one of the most wild like twist and turns and actually great insight into how he makes decisions. So I just talked about how he's impressionable. It depends on who he's talking to,
regardless of how he arrives. So here is the backstory on how Trump arrived at being pro IVF. Let's take a list.
I got a call from Katie Britt, a young, just a fantastically attractive person from Alabama. She's a senator, and she called me up like emergency emergency, because an Alabama judge had ruled that the IVF clinics were illegal and they have to be closed down. A judge ruled, and she said, friends of mine came up to me and they were, Oh, they were so angry. I didn't even know they were going, you know, she they were it's fertilization. I didn't know they were even involved. And nobody talks
about it, don't talk about it. But now that they can't do it, she said, I was attacked in a certain way. I was attacked and I said, explain IVS very IVF very quickly, and within about two minutes I understood it. I said, no, no, we're totally in favor of IVF.
Right. So Katie Britt, the attractive senator, called him and talked about how women came up to her in church and told them about how they were using IVF, and they based on that is the only reason they decided to change on this object. I mean, look, I'll take
it right. I think it's a good thing. But it's one of those where the incoherence of a lot of the GOP's like ability to handle this issue comes to light, where you know, they get stumbled into things where you have this like evangelical based part of the party who look, I guess to their credit. They really do believe in banning IVF and and at least some of them in banning IVF or in making sure that abortion is completely
illegal like in all cases. And then they are stuck with the political consequences of what has been a disaster for the GOP electorally. I mean, you know, we're going to talk in a bit about what the new electorate may look like based on some initial projections of early vote, et cetera. And it's like, I can't even begin to describe how much abortion dramatically changed the landscape. It's so remarkable.
Never I mean, I knew it was going to be something, but to think it would realign almost everything and be the primary reason that a lot of women are going to vote, I would never have predicted that, and yet it has. So this is a good view into they really don't know how to handle it. Like it's like everybody wanted Row versus Way to be gone. It's like not really, and then now it is gone. It's like and actually it's a good thing, you know, for this day.
It's just it's just all over the map, Like, yeah, it doesn't make a lot of sense.
Yeah, is the main thing? Well, I would saying with Kamlin Harris like in certain questions, there just isn't really
a good answer for her. And this is a question for Donald Trump, like there is no good answer because also, I mean, he has the reality contend with that his justices that he hand picked and put on the court with the you know, direct intention of overturning Roe versus Wade, like this was the logical consequence consequence of the actions that he himself took number one and number two when Democrats have brought up let's protect IVF bills at the
federal level. You know, last time that this happened, all but two Republicans voted against it, and Jade Vance just didn't come so he didn't have to take a vote either way. So you know, he wants to position republicanss like the Party of IVF and himself is what do you call himself, like the King of IVF or.
Something, a father, a fertilization father. Listening, he's got what he's got children with three different women's So in some ways.
People are just not really going to buy like he's the one to protect women's rights. And as I said, I can't really get him. I can't really coach him on a better answer, because I don't really think there is one, given the actions that he's already taken, given his coalition, And you know, he's very fortunate that there aren't more pro life leaders and voters who are as critical of him as like Lyla Rose was when she
talked to us on our show. You know, they've largely given him a pass on this too, so that gives him the freedom to go out there and be like, oh, IVF is wonderful, and of course I love IVF, and of course it should all be left to the states and all of these things. But yeah, it's just a losing issue for them, period, you know, bottom line out of story, because it's not really a political framing issue
at this point. It's a reality issue, and people are very set on how upset they are about the changed landscape of rights that they previously enjoyed.
Absolutely, all right, let's move on to the polls.
So some interesting pulling data to get to this morning, but I also wanted to take a look at that analysis from Harry Enton. He did a great job breaking down some of Kamala Harris's issues with non white voters, especially among men. This segment. He looks at the flip side of that, which is her historically good performance with a key demographic group. That would be white women, my people, apparently with jigalism.
Let's take a look here the GOP's margin among white women. Look Romney one and by nine. All right, Trump in twenty sixteen one and by six. You go back four years ago, Trump won and by seven.
Look.
Now, look how much lower Trump's margin is among white women. Look, he still leads, but it's well within the margin, or it's just a point. He's doing six points worse than he did four years ago. In fact, he's doing the worst if this holds for a GOP candidate this century among white women.
John Well, how much do white women matter in the electric.
So this is the whole thing, right, how much do they matter? If you were to break it down, white women, white men, women of color, men of color, white women make up the plurality of the electorate thirty six percent. So you know, yesterday we were talking about those massive gains that Donald Trump was making among black men, black women, But the bottom line is they actually make up a considerably smaller portion of the electorate than white women do.
So when we're talking about five six point shifts, seven point shifts in Kamala Harris's direction. We're talking about that among a major part of the electorate, and that can actually move the overall electorate more than ginormous shifts among a considerably smaller part of the electric If she wins, it could ultimately be because she did so well with white women.
John and what he was showing there at the end is the difference the gender gap between who is prioritizing abortion and saying that's their top issue for women. Twenty seven percent of women are saying that is my number one issue. So this is effectively I mean, if you want to understand, I don't agree with all of the Kamala Harris campaign strategy. I think they should be focusing a lot more and foregrounding a lot more economic plans, bread and butter plans. I think they should be hitting
Trump on the economy. I think they would be doing much better in the polls right now than the absolute fifty to fifty toss up at best that it is at this point. But this is effectively their strategy. Soccers they see those like Nicky Haley voters and they they're looking at these numbers and say, hey, that's the largest demographic group that we could improve them. So if we up that by you know, a few points, then hey,
we're we're in good position. And that's what all of the that's what a lot of their campaign strategy has been geared towards. And of course a lot of their you know, AD dollars have been spent, a lot of their vocal energy and campaign rallies and debate stage time, and all of that is also spent on the issue of abortion because it's the most uniting issue among this particular coalition.
Absolutely, And you know, this is a point often made by others about the GEOP. You know, Trump is obsessed with the idea of winning more Latino and black men. And look, that's great, you know, I think it's objectively like a good thing for the country and certainly should
always be trying to win everybody. But you know, seventy five percent of the people in the country vote are white five percent, So when you have a nine percent margin problem from Romney to today or eight percent, that's actually bad because even though it's a smaller margin, then let's say other groups like Latino man, there's a ton more white women who are out there. Well, some more white people who are out there who actually vote, So
by the numbers, that actually matters a lot. It matters the most in the actual states that are the most critical in this election, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which are way more white than the Sun Belt. And in fact, if we consider a scenario where what what is Trump upbeyed in the New York Times in Arizona like four maybe six?
I think six.
That's a ton, right, What does that explain? So Hispanics, it's a very diverse state. There's way less white people who live in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, wisconsinly ever been there, Like it's they're pretty white places, and you know, the minorities that they have is like usually black people who are in like urban areas and especially in the rural counties,
places that Trump used to dominate. If he is going to only win white women there by some fifty to fifty margin, massive problem for him, especially when you consider what all of those people proportionally coming for the Democrats could mean. Even with higher voter registration and even with higher turnout amongst men, it wouldn't even matter numbers wise, I've.
Seen a number of Trump supporting Republicans who are like, he really needs to do some female focused podcasts, you know.
And you can see like Riley Gain say that that's why, that's why I saw. Yeah, they're not wrong. I think they're right.
Yeah, And you see, you know, Tommy Laren has also been critical at times of his strategy of or lack thereof, to outreach to women, because this is such an important demographic group like all the rest, and you do see on the hair side, they realize we got a little bit of a problem the manisphere. I'm going to go I'm going to try to go on Joe Rogan, I'm going to go on with Charlemagne, like I'm going to go on these various places to try to shore up
our support. There you can see they recognize that there's a bit of an issue and they're trying to shore things up. You know, Trump to do this like news town Hall with pre selected audience members. But in terms of the similar podcast strategy that he's used to reach young men, there doesn't seem to be a similar level of effort to try to improve his margins with women, as you see on the Hair side, and again you know, part of this cake is like already baked. I think
it is difficult. At this point, there's probably only a few percentage points of undecided voters who could truly go either way. So you know, your best bet probably is these non traditional platforms. These were cultural figures to call her daddies of the world, et cetera. And it's hard to it's hard to imagine Trump in those spaces, but it would also be very interesting to.
See Trump and keeps saying it would be crange. I totally disagree. Trump is funny. He's a pop culture person. Howard Stern. You think he doesn't know how to handle like somebody like call her daddy, Like come on.
The problem is he gets especially I haven't seen him do. Maybe maybe it can remind me of if I'm not remembering one. I've not seen him do a contentious interview this cycle where he hasn't just gotten angry. You know, I'm thinking of the last contentious interview that comes to my mind as the National Associations last journalist, where he just completely lost it and started, you know, ranting about how Kamala hair is not really black and attacking the
moderators or whatever. And I don't think if you're trying to appeal to women voters, like if you go in a majority female space and that's the way you treat the host, I don't think that's going to go well. So we'd have to bring more of the like it's going to be a more adversarial questioning. And can he handle that without just like blowing his top as he has in previous boundings this cycle, I do I don't know.
I mean, I know he has it in him for sure. You know, I've seen him do it many times in the past. He's like you frequent Oprah guest, right, Like, it's not somebody who doesn't have this in their repertoire.
So I think it's been a minute.
I think he should do it. I think you're right, and there's no reason especially not to do Like honestly, I think if I were him, I would do Oprah or I would do uh.
Otra has actively Kamala Harris and spoke of the DNC, so.
I'm strong, be strong. Yeah, so his call her daddy. She's basically come out as like pro Kamala. Who else I'm trying to think of, like vaguely women Podcast.
Women's maybe there's like somebody big in the true crime space is not all that political that he did, that he can vibe with it.
That's actually a good idea. I'm not really sure. I don't listen to a lot of these true crime things, right, I mean, they're some of the top biggest female shows in the entire country. Yeah, so that wouldn't be you know, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
Yeah.
Anyway, so that's Trump with the ladies. Let's take a look at YouGov has just launched their MRP projections. Let's put this up on the screen. So this is a little different than a poll and soccer. Maybe you can
explain this better than I can. But effectively, they're doing interviews with something like one hundred thousand voters across the country, and they are continually reaching out to these voters to see how they're shifting, and they're asking him a range of questions not just about who they're supporting, but critically because this is the hardest thing to determine how likely they are to actually show.
Up and vote.
So this is the launch of their of this MRP model. Based on this technique that they're using. You can see that Kamala Harris has a little bit of an edge fifty to forty seven in terms of the national popular vote. That would probably be enough, although it would be quite razor fin for her to be able to secure a win using those industrial Midwestern like the blue Wall state path. You can see in this model they have her winning
Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania basically a toss up. If you do click over Pennsylvania, they do have her with a slight edge there as well, but you know, too close for them to actually put it in her column. Let's go ahead to the next piece. You can see three the more details about the MRP projections, and what this person notes that's really fascinating is the fact that
if they're right, then it looks a lot. It's very validating of the New York Times theory that twenty twenty four looks more like twenty twenty two than it does
twenty twenty. These results imply this person rights that on average, the swing states will do almost a half a point better than the twenty twenty margin in those core seven battlegrounds, but they'll do worse basically everywhere else, and so the national popular vote they'll do more poorly in even as they're holding up and even doing better than twenty twenty
in those swing states. And like I said, that's somewhat consistent with how things turned down in the mid term elections and would again indicate that there's a shrinking of the gap between the electoral college advantage that Republicans have and the national popular vote. So who knows, right, it's just more pieces of data to throw into the mix.
But I do sort of think there's a logic to that New York Times theory that based on the reshaping of the electorate post COVID, post row versus way, that it makes some sense that it would look more like twenty twenty two, where you have some places that continue to move to the right, but in the key states, Kamala Harris is holding up pretty well here. So what did you make of this saga?
Same as you. I mean, it's a key piece of data. The UGUV model is not bad. Apparently I checked some of his track record back in the day. It's pioneered. Actually in the UK they call it the what is it the MRP model, the technique to project it. The point is is that this the heuristic that everybody needs is are we in a twenty twenty scenario or are we in a twenty twenty two scenario. So right now, a lot of poles are assuming a twenty twenty scenario
the exact same makeup of the electorate. Because we consider what I said previously about abortion. Abortion fundamentally changed the way that Americans interact with the political system, millions and millions of people changing the way that they do on top of major demographic and dynamic changes which we actually can see, like if we want to move into some of the polls, like let's go to be four, please
and put that up on the screen. So if you look at these poles, and you look specifically at the Harris and Yugov and economists, they have a forty nine forty five for Harris, that's within four points. For the Tip people, they have a fifty forty six for Harris, and Harris at fifty to forty seven, and the overall average she's roughly around three percent in the national popular vote. But the thing is is that the national popular vote that's a little bit less than where things had looked
previously for a lot of Democrats. So with the less popular vote, you still have to then look at those micro demographics, and if you see where you had in twenty twenty two, you had an electorate which was Republican plus two in its preference, but you had so many independents that came over and voted in the swing states in particular, that it still looked like a major blowout. And this is like with the major areas of the country are changing very differently. New York and the outer
boroughs are becoming a lot more red. Obviously Florida has become a lot more red. That's kind of interesting. But you also have North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona really fundamentally changing. I mean, North Carolina may be the one which has changed the most. You've got a way more wealthy and white, affluent number of net migrants coming into the state from the last four years. You've got all this stuff right now with the hurricane damage, and particularly western North Carolina
where it's already a Republican stronghold. So I could see an upset there probably more than anywhere else.
Yeah, I think that's very possible, really interesting if she won North Carolina lost Georgia. I mean, it's just you know, there's there's a lot of potential dynamics that could play out to your point about like, you know, the polls and how we think about these things. You know, we covered that poll and that data that showed that Republican self identification had edged out above Democratic health identification, and then that same polster released a poll like the next
week that had it flipped back the other ways. I was like, all right, well, who the hell knows what do we know about any of this? But one thing I wanted to flag is in that last tweet they had the tipp I don't know if people just say tip or they say tippe, but whatever. Anyway, they had that now Daily Tracker, and that poll ended up last time around being the most accurate polster. So people are
paying a little bit special attention to this. But to break down why any of this matters, because it seems like we're really parsing here. When you're looking at the national polls, if you see a lot of people are see Kamala Harris with like a two or three point lead, and they're like, well, with the electoral college advantage that Republicans had in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, that may
not be enough. That's really the key question here, because if it's more of a twenty twenty two electorate, then a three or even potentially a two point maybe one point lead for her in the popular vote could be sufficient depending on what happens in these battlegrounds. So that's kind of the key point is you're trying to analyze all of these things. We wanted to update you on some good news with regard to election night. Let's go
and put this up on the screen. So Georgia had issued their election board, which is very you know, pro Trump sort of mega election board, different than Brian Kemp, who obviously as governor in the state. They had ruled that every ballot in the state was going to have to be hand counted. Now you can understand how long that would take, especially given how close they are to election day, how little time they'd have to adjust to
this new rule. And as of now, a county judge in Georgia blocked that new rule mandating a handcount of election ballots across the state. He said that enacting that sweeping change right now, so close to the Novumber election would be quote too much, too late. He didn't knock it down outright leaving the door open the potentially in the future they could implement this rule change, but just saying listen, it's too close to election day, and this
would potentially create a lot of chaos. And you know, I'm relieved, because number one, I want to be able to get the election results and actually know who wins at some point in time, and this was definitely going to delay that being able to occur, and it was going to create more of that red mirage of fact where because the largest cities and largest suburban areas tend to be more democratic, those are also the places with a lot of votes, and if you're trying to hand count,
those will be the places that came in last. So it creates that opening that Trump used last time around to say, look, the results were all coming in Republican and then all of a sudden, in the middle of the night, you know, they get in these secret ballots and suddenly the Democrats take the lead. So this helps to mitigate some of that dynamic and leave less of an opening for his shenanigans. In this particular stace, we.
Also just take I mean, the main point is just takes freaking forever, and it's one of those where everyone always like, oh, we need better elections and all this is like, how is hand counting not way worse? It's one of those where you know, you put your trust in Look, no offense to the poll workers out there, but it's like, you know, have you ever met some
of these folks about who they are? And then don't even forget about the whole hanging Chad nightmare from Florida in the year two thousand where you had those two individual people they're examining the ballots as another person people. Really, you know, I wasn't truly cognizant like at that time, but the more I read about it, I'm like, what an insane It was wild?
It was really wild. I was barely politically cognizant, to be honest with you, because I just wasn't that political at that ase. But yeah, I remember being like, what the hell is going on? Listen? Maybe it's controversial. I personally think, yes, it's fine for individual states to run their elections. I think that's good, and I think that prevents fraud whatever, because we have all these different systems to penetrate. I think there should be federal standards for elections.
I think everybody should have the same in terms of is voter ide required or not? What is the early voting process? Is there mail in voting? What's the early voting period?
Is it hand?
Like?
How do Fellon's vote? That's actually the craziest one if you think about it. Some states are felling to vote some station.
Yeah, that's right. So what's the most eligible to vote? In different states? It's different and it is outrageous. So I don't know. I think it should be one federal standard because I think it's crazy that voters in some states have way more acts, is way easier to vote than in other states. But I'll that's neither here nor there. I'm glad that they struck down this handing.
Oregon they can only do vote by mail. It's craazy. They don't even do in person voting. You're like, wow, like, but actually they have a pretty high voter participation.
Kind of interesting.
But then yeah, and then some places, like we live in Virginia, and Virginia, what is it? Vote by mail is a lot harder, but we have a ton of early voting. Early voting is actually very nice.
I like to vote early in person as my personal preference.
It's the easiest way to do it, so you can you can get it done quickly. But then there are there are like weird questions around the election and like voting all the way up until September. So I don't necessary, I don't really disagree in terms of like what the standards and all of that should look like. There you go, that's that's the picture. That's all we know, and we
don't know much. We have little little things that could show us something and be indicators of what's coming in the in the future, and after the outcome, we'll be able to look back and really see what was correct, what wasn't, and what we should have looked at.
Yeah, okay, so let's go ahead and move on to the current president Joe Biden. He still exists. That's still a person who exists, was supposedly running our country. He is hitting the campaign trail in some limited fashion on behalf of Kamala Harris. Let's take a listen to a little bit of how that went.
Let me tell you something. You can't be pro insurrection and pro American if you can't announce Sanuary sixth, you have no business being present. He look, Trump hasn't changed. I would argue he's gotten worse. Clearly he lost the election of twenty twenty. He snapped, no, I mean it. He become unhinge. Look at his rallies last night. Last night, his rallies stopped taking questions because someone got hurt. And guess what, he stood on the stage for thirty minutes
and danced. I'm serious, what's wrong with this guy?
So there you go. That's some of his messaging out on the trail, consistent with a lot of what you hear from Will Harris and Tim Walls. At the same time, he and Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. We're all actually at the funeral of Ethel Kennedy and interesting to see them all together. We can take a look at a little bit of this. You know, Sager, what did you what did you make of this movie? You can see them all three that had seated together for They all look old.
But this is one where everyone.
Was Obama aged focused so much in office.
Oh my god, Obama gives a little bit of a side eye, looks a little frustrated. You know, they're not really like making eye contact. Now you can see the power dynamic in play here about who is really the one in charge, although maybe I'm just reading way too much into it, which is most likely. I don't know.
Crazy that Bill Clinton is younger than Joe Biden.
I know it's great.
It is imagine I'm running for office again.
I mean we've talked about that before. But if there was no Amendment twenty second Amendment, I think Clinton this would be Clinton's last term in office. He would have obviously would have run for like five straight terms. He would have stayed in office the entire time. Sixty percent approval rating on the day that he left. Though, that's great. I was just looking at the nineteen ninety six.
See, that's my I always think about wild I always think about if there were no term limits, I think we still have Obama. But it wouldn't have even gotten there.
He would Bill Lees. He'd still be a skinny kid with a funny name who was the elector. He probably would have left the Senate because he was bored. I mean Clinton, I'm.
Looking at or something.
Electoral map. Clinton won, uh Louisiana, Arkansas, like Missouri, World, Iowa. This crazy stuff. He won three hundred and seventy nine electoral votes. Man Bob Doly won one hundred and fifty nine, the guy was like a king. It's kind of crazy, you know what happened to him in retrospect, And then just four years later in two thousand, Gore only puts up two hundred and sixty six electoral votes, even if
you look discount Florida within that. I mean, gosh, consider just how much things had changed just in his last four years. So it's actually pretty interesting just to think about what it all looked like in retrospect. But with Biden, and what we definitely wanted to focus on here was Nancy Pelosi and Biden apparently have not spoken since they dropped out, and there's still quite a lot of salt behind the scenes between the two.
Let's take a lesson with Joe Biden since that happened. That's a couple of months have passed since. Have you had a conversation too.
Nuts since THENO so, But I'm prayerful about it. I have the greatest respect for him. I think he's one of the great consequential presidents of our country. I think his legacy had to be protected. I didn't see that happening in the course that it was on the election, was on my call was just to let's get on a better course. He will make the decision as to what that is, and he made that decision. But I think he has some unease with because we've been friends
for decks. Look, let me just say this. Elections are decisions you decide to win. I decided a while ago that Donald Trump will never set foot in the White House again as President of the United States or in any other capacity, but as I can't keep them there for going for tea, but as president of the United States. So when you make a decision, you have to make every decision in favor of winning.
And you just felt he couldn't win.
No, I thought his campaign that they were on couldn't win. He might win, but they had to change what was happening, and he decided that change would be his stepping aside.
As you said you had been close for so long and on Capitol College for decades.
Before I was even in Congress.
Yeah, and now you've told us that you haven't spoken to him since then. Do you think he's not forgiven you for your role?
There may be some people around him who haven't forgiven me for my role.
There may be some people around him who haven't forgiven him. So god a spicy she talks.
Is so funny to me because she really talks like I'm running the show, you know. She's like, she's like, winning is a decision, and I decided that we were going to win and Donald Trump wasn't going to be in the White House. And she's very delicate, of course about oh, maybe Biden could have won, but that campaign was not going to win. And I think that's an effort like she didn't really care if the campaign staffers
no matter or like whatever. She didn't give a shit, right, But she's trying to preserve some sort of you know, possibility of relationship with him and the public niceties, et cetera. But obviously the big reveal there that they have not spoken since he dropped out of the race, and that's pretty wild. I mean, that definitely reveals that he's still
salty about her role, probably Obama's role as well. And there's also a lot of reporting about makes sense so interest staff conflict between the Biden camps and the Harris camps. We can put this up on the screen from Axios. Tensions rise between Harris and Biden teams as election nears and you know, on the one hand, you got the Biden people close Harris ally said they're too much in
their feelings. They say he wants Harris to win, Yes, but many senior Biden aids are still wounded by the President being pushed out of his reelection like he was gonna lose, and also you were doing him no favors in terms of like this mean, can't serve another four years anyway. They're too much in their feelings, according to one close Harris ally. But there's also some of the Harris teams who are bitter over the fact that a bunch of Biden aids were out there suggesting that she
was unelectable. So there continues to be some hurt feelings between the camp. We've also seen some we'll say disconnected messaging coming from the Biden side. He gave a press conference in the White House Briefing Room just as Harris was about to do an event in Michigan, so kind
of undercutting her TV coverage. Also, there was that whole flat between Kamala and Ron de Santis were kind of engaged in this like back and forth where he wasn't taking her call whatever, and Biden got asked about it and said that Desanta's had been quote gracious and cooperative,
so again kind of undercutting her there. But you know, my guest saga is that if they lose, if Kamala loses, you're gonna hear a lot more of this, and the Biden people will preposterously claim that he would have been a better candidate to win, which is absurd given what we saw in terms of the movement of the polls.
And he's been saying it behind the scenes. He's been like, I actually look at her, I could have one. It's crossously crazy, preposteros. Yeah, there will be two, like vibe checks afterwards if Kamala loses. One will be Biden saying he never should have dropped out. That will be the revision's history. And two will be they should have picked John if she loses Pennsylvania. Oh my god, Josh Shapiro propaganda that we're going to hear for the next four years is going to be.
Why when the correct take is that they should have had an actual democratic primary so that these candidates might have been stress tested and voters have an actual democratic opportunity to choose the candidate they thought would be best to go up against Donald Trump. That will be the correct take if she loses. But I have a feeling if she does pull off a win, all of this unhappiness it will be fine, swept under the rug. Joe
Biden will go back. You know, he's a hero, thinks brown eyes and him off the Wilmington.
Yeah, look at you wish that you should do.
Right now, But forget about the genocide. Don't worry about that. He is noble and great and wonderful and honorable and all of these things. And he's noble, and his brain is still perfectly fine. Even though his brain was still not fine that we had to push him out of the race. Whatever. If they win, then that will be the all of this will be smoothed over. If they lose. These are the some of the contours of the knives that will come out post loss.
I think you are certainly correct, Florida. We've been teasing it for long enough, right.
Yes, indeed, so you know this is significant just in terms of the broader sort of conversation about where we are in terms of our economy, in terms of home ownership, in terms of some of the political contours. Even Rhonda Santisen Republicans have been really proud of how many people have moved to the state of Florida and how vibrantthotic economy has been. There are some signs that some of
that could be reversing for a range of reasons. Number One, housing prices have just gone up in the state of Florida because a lot of people move there and housing prices are kind of going up everywhere, So that's number one. Obviously, the mortgage interest rate situation, again, that's a national issue. You also have had this problem with home property owners insurance, which is a total disaster, which I'll get into the
specifics of a little bit more in a moment. And then you have a situation after remember that condo building that collapsed and killed a bunch of people was horrifying. Well, in response to that, there's they're imposing these levees so that these older condo buildings can be brought up to the codes. You don't see that again, but that's causing issues too with the in the level of those assessments, which sometimes can reach into like hundreds of thousands of
dollars for individual condo owners. So that and then most obviously recently you had these two back to back massive storms hit almost the entire state of Florida, which is making a lot of people go like, ugh, I why do I want to move into a place that's just going to be routinely hit by massive storms and flooded. And I can't even get property owner's insurance. So it is really putting a chill on that on that whole market. We can put this up on the screen. This first
element here from the Wall Street Journal. They say the Great Florida Migration is coming undone. A surplus of housing inventory and dwindling buyer interests are slowing sales. Hurricanes and extreme weather are making it worse. They profile at the beginning this man, Anthony Holmes, who was part of that Florida migration. He moved from a Virginia to a gated suburban community in Tampa. Now that he's had to leave, he's a victim of a glutted housing market where buyers
are increasing hard to find. He paid five hundred and fifty thousand dollars for his five bedroom home, spent another fifty thousand dollars on solar panels and interior improvements, but now he's having to move back to Virginia for work. He thought he'd be able to sell his house right away. He listed it in February. He has had no luck. He's dropped the price five different times. He's just trying to break even. And he says, quote, I can't unload the thing in eight months. I've had zero offers.
Jeez.
No one even showed up to the open houses. Nobody, so they said. Another sign that we should all pay attention to here that the housing market is approaching a potential inflection point, is that institutional investors are starting to sell and pull back. Many are eager to cash in on the huge increase in prices that many of these homes have seen since twenty ten and are now pruning their Florida housing exposure. Just to give you a few more numbers than on get your reaction to all of
this saga, they say. Tampa, Orlando and much of the Space Coasts are also experiencing this Florida housing reversal. Inventory for single family homes and condos in these areas was up more than fifty percent in August versus the last year. At the same time, demand has decreased ten percent or more. In these areas. About half of the homes listed for sale in Tambo, which is where the individual is talking about, was struggling to sell his home, about half of them
have experienced price reductions. As of September ninth, that's the third highest share of all US major metro areas. So it does seem like something is going on.
Absolutely, can we put the next one please up on the screen, because this is probably one of the most important parts, is about all of these properties that are for sale of skyrocketed. The guy was speculating, what are the odds he's or airbnbs with owners who are about to declare bankruptcy. But what you actually see inside all the data is that it's a flat housing market from
March twenty twenty three onward. Two huge hurricanes that have now come through in the last year, skyrocketing insurance of four hundred percent, and then on top of that you have a lot there's not a lot of faith inside of the actual state that the current coluge of insurance system that's been put together after a lot of the insurance companies pulled out will even hold up. And this was the most interesting part to me. Let's put the
next one please on the screen. What we saw is that the insurer of last resort is actually already in trouble and that Milton may be a big part of it. It's called the Citizens Property Insurance Group. It's the state and nonprofit home insurance that was set up as the last resort. One point three million policies are enforced in the last month, three times as many compared to five years ago. It's the largest provider in the entire state.
The problem is that the governor already warned that Citizens was not solvent and that quote it can't function with millions of people on that because if a storm hits, it's going to cause problems for the state.
Vote.
Thankfully that they've avoided the worst case scenario for Milton, but that doesn't change that Citizens is one catastrophic storm away from complete and total insolvency, which means what that they're either going to get bailed out by the federal government or those insurance premiums are about to go from four hundred percent of five years ago to like a thousand percent five years ago. So you can't even imagine what that would do, especially in a high interest rate environment.
Think about what your mortgage payment is going to look like from interest and insurance. Honestly, could even it could go way over principle. Maybe start to think about what the cost of living there would be.
Yeah, that's crazy, that's absolutely true. No, I mean, if you think about four hundred percent increase in those costs over just a few years, that's mind blowing. And so what's happened is a bunch of the local private insurers just cancel palls or out or not. Yeah, they're say more there now. And so people were forced to, you know, into this property owner's insurance of last resort, which is you know, federal and state back Citizens Property Insurance Corporation.
And you have politicians here in DC raising alarms that they're on the brink of insolvency if they get hit with another catastrophic event. You know, they're already probably going to have to pay out billions of dollars in claims after these two storms. And so while this outfit has a mechanism in order to be able to make sure it remain solvent, that mechanism is basically just jacking up the prices like crazy, not only on homes but also on you know, other forms of bright like cars and
boats and whatever. And how politically feasible is that really going to be for whoever is governor, whether it's Rondo Santas or whoever's governor of the state at the time. And so Sheldon white House was saying, should claims exceed the insuran's ability to pay citizens does have a mechanism to pass those losses onto Florida families are already paying sky high premiums. Recouping billions of dollars in losses from Floridians is unlikely to be feasible economically or politically, let
alone in time to pay massive claims. Hence the Budget Committee concern about possible requests for a federal bailout. So whether or not you live in Florida very possible. This could be a question that the whole country is faced
with here shortly. But you know, it's an irony that the very things that some of the things that make Florida so incredibly appealing obviously is a little bit of the great weather, But all of this beachfront property may be, you know, the thing that is also causing a lot of people to be reluctant to relocate there because you're facing these storms, You're facing this property insurance, you know, skyrocketing property insurance impossibility in certain instances of even getting
property insurance, and so you are already starting to see a reversal of some of those trends.
Yeah, I'm going to watch. Look, there's a lot of stuff going on. The point is is that if you really look at the lot of the demographics, like we're watching Florida now go red, I'm watching with great interest how North Carolina is going to go and what the margins of that will look like, disproportionately a lot wider than the more economically dinamic swing of the Sun Belt states. I really am also watching Nevada. Nevada's had a ton
of economic development in the last couple of years. They've also had big changes in terms of like their political outlook and who they may vote for. America is changing a lot. America is changing a lot. I think it's part of the most exciting things about covering this stuff. And you know, a lot of the bowl case for Florida is now becoming a little bit of a bear case. So you should definitely think about that when you are making decisions.
So we have a stunning potential development out of Israel and Gaza strip. We could go ahead and put this tear sheet up on the screen from Axios. Israel is apparently investigating the possible death of hamas leader Yeah Yeah Sinwar Sinwar credative of course, with some of the architecting of October seventh. He has been probably the primary target
for assassination by Israel post October seventh. There are some gruesome images floating around social media of the individuals purported to be Yeah Yeah Sinwar after this strike that potentially killed him. That has not been firmly confirmed at all yet. The IDEAF is still investigating it, so we wanted to bring you everything we know. You know, just looking at him, Sager, it does look like it could be him.
Looking at the pot. We're not going to put the photos up there. They're pretty gruesome and some of the details are a bit odd. So from what we know, what is it right now? It looks like it was as a result of a drone strike, and it was a drone strike on three individuals who were walking, I think, And it was after they discovered the remains that they
were like, oh man, this could be Sinwar. So they're doing genetic testing, like they said, right now, to confirm with one hundred percent certainty, and apparently they still have to clear explosive devices from the scene. But I mean just purely like looking at him, it definitely looks it looks more like him than it did when they caught Saddam, I'll put it that way.
That's true.
Well they got Saddam. I was like, I don't know if that really I mean, cameras were different.
Than but so they said. Israeli officials claim the incident was coincidental, not based on intelligence. They say that during a routine patrol by the ID after soldiers encounter three arm bending, changed fire and killed them. And then it was after the fact that one of the soldiers saw the face of one of the bodies and thought that he resembled Sinwar, but his identity could not be immediately confirmed.
You know, obviously if Sinware, if this was indeed Sinwar and he is now dead, that is an extraordinarily significant development. As I mentioned before, it was probably the top target of Israel in terms of him being the architect of October seventh. And you know, if you had a different administration, they might look at this. Both the US and Israeli administration. They might look at this and say, hey, let's take the w here I was going, we got our man.
There's actually two ways that we could go, you know, and in some ways it's not a bad development because sin War is one of the I mean, we were reading reporting he wanted to renew suicide bombers. He was the guy who what is it who greenlit and planned a lot of the October seventh attacks, and cynically, you know, there'd been obviously an analysis that maybe Israel had put itself in a position to elevate sin War so he
could be like that radical wing of the party. So, like you just said, it's one of those where look, imagine if a year into the war on Terror we got bin Laden. That would be a great argument for let's wrap it. Yeah, it's like we're good, Yeah, congratulations, now let's go. One could go that way. The other unfortunate way that they're more likely to do it is just be like yes, but now about what about his loop?
This is what they did with Hesbola immediately went from Nostrella to number the guy who replaced Nostralita, and then the guy who replaced the replacement of Nasralla. And it's not like anything has changed all that much. So that's what we did. Fortunate reality, that's exactly. Yeah.
I mean, we already know the answer is going to be there, not going to take the w and say, okay, we did it, let's move on. But you know, this is something I'd love to talk to Jeremy Scahill more about because he's interviewed right some of you know HAMAS
members and members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad as well. But you know, my general understanding is that Ismael Haniah, who was the head of the political wing of HAMAS, who was previously assassinated by Israel In while he was in Tehran, actually in Iran, that he was more you know, I know it seems preposterous to talk about a modern wing of Hamas, but he was more interested in a diplomatic solution.
He was less enamored with some of the more sort of like you know, terrorists or violent activities that Hamas has in particular engaged in, not only in October seventh fees of the civilians, but in the past with regard to suicide bombings, and so he was someone knew that you could more easily work with and imagine coming in a diplomatic solution Sinwar more of the hardliner And there had been some reporting, I don't know whether it's true or not, but that he was thinking again of hey,
we need to you know, get back into the suicide bombing business. And so if he is now taken out as head of Hamas, who knows who fills that vacuum and what the ideology is coming next, you know what version of their ideology it is. In any case, we'll keep an eye on it and you know, see if this is ultimately confirmed right now continues to be a
big question mark. What is not a big question mark is that Israel continues with their offensive, both in Gaza, also in other parts of the region, but most specifically in Leben. We can put this images up on the screen. This is a video of just the detonation of an entire residential neighborhood in a southern Lebanon town. You know, hard to imagine this being really like a precision strike to get the baddies and Hesbala when you just you know,
wantonly destroy an entire village. So that's what you're looking at there. We also have some domestic news, some new revelations about you guys. Recall there was that effectively pro rape riot at a torture facility they call it a detention center for Palestinian detainees, where soldiers who were accused and I mean the evidence is all there. I think to even give them the benefit of the doubt at this point is very generous. Who are accused of raping
a Palestinian detainee. The military police came in to arrest these suspects and there was a massive revolt among his fellow soldiers, but also among a bunch of right wing groups including LACUD party members and ministers that's Benjamin net Yahoo's party. Ultimately, you know they're after a huge backlash. They you know, they had to take them to different facilities. It was a wild scene and now we're learning new details.
We can put this up on the screen that those soldiers not only did they protest, there are fellow soldiers who were again accused of raping a palaes Didnian detainee. Not only did they protest, but they also attacked those military police investigators. They also used held them at gunpoint and barricaded themselves with the suspects to try to keep them from getting arrested. Military police has witness testimonies to
the assault. It has not, though, been investigated, on the grounds that the assaulted soldiers are afraid to officially complain, even though and it's after mass some of the investigators involved stop fulfilling operational roles and one stop showing up for duty. So these are also you know, people are
in the military. The military police who came to arrest these individuals accused of grave crimes with quite a lot of evidence, and the fellow soldiers take out their weapons, barricade them in rooms, assault them directly, and there's been zero investigation into any of this because effectively, you know, the government, certainly a significant part of Israeli society supported the side that was like, we don't think that, we think it should be fine for soldiers to rape Palestinians
and there should be no consequences. Oh yeah, just a wild sign of where the society is.
The inside of it is totally crazy, especially with that riot that would happened, and then now the the what is it the actual internal efforts to police it is crazy. They literally attack the military police for arrested them. You can't even imagine what this would look like in the US military or for our discipline. I mean, it would be a total destruction of like chain of command, of justice, of everything that they pride themselves on, the professionalization, professionalization
of the force. From my lie on, it's just absolute madness, like and think even look, Abu Grad was shameful, right, but there was a lot done to make sure that something like that never ever happened again. This is the opposite reaction. This would be like if they got away with it, and worse that when they were arrested, that the people there actually turned and cited with those who were at Abu Gra.
That's exactly right. Yeah, it's it's wild to comprent. And then the fact that they're you know, basically the government's like, oh, we're on the side of the people who you know, took out their weapons and assaulted the military police trying to do their job and invest in you know, investigate these people and bring them into detention. Yeah, it tells you a lot. Let's go and put this next piece up on the screen. This was quite an interesting opinion
piece published in an Israeli newspaper Haretz. The author here Yatak Brink, Major General Yatak Brick served in the Armor Corps as a brigade divisioning troop commander, as commander of the IDF military colleges for ten years. He was the i ombudsman. So this is no You know, anti Zionists, pink care lefty on a college campus and the headline is Israel will collapse within a year if the war
of attrition against Hamas and has Blood continues. So you know this person who is very invested in the future of the Israeli state, who is founding the warning, he says, I assume Defense Minister Golan already understands the war has lost its purpose. Israel's thinking deeper into the gosen mud, losing war and more soldiers as they get killed or wounded without any chance of achieving the war's main goal bringing down Hamas. The country really is galloping towards the
edge of an abyss. If the war of a attrition continues, Israel will collapse within no more than a year. Terror attacks are intensifying the West Bank and inside the country. The reserved army is voting with its feet following recurring mobilizations of combat soldiers, and the economy is crashing. Israel's also become a pariah state, prompting economic boycotts and an embargo on arms shipment. So you know, we've seen some ezy right, I don't know, but we've seen some signs that,
you know, they've got real problems. There are more more countries who are saying we're not going to ship you weapons anymore. You have the US doing I don't have. I don't feel like it has much credibility. But this letter from the State Department saying basically like you got to shape up with regard to eight or you know, there may be consequences. They're already sending signals that like, no, actually there won't be consequences. But the US sending that letter,
I mean, it is something. And certainly the NETNYA who is government is fearful that if Kamala Harris were elected or even post election, that bide my feely as a freer hand to take some sort of actions against them. But more to the point, we've seen businesses pulling out. We've seen Intel was supposed to go forward with some significant investment in the state that they back down of. You have an incredible burden on society from these multiple
wars that they're fighting and constantly trying to escalate. And you even had a letter from some one hundred and thirty IDF members who said, no, if you don't go and get a hostage deal and bring home the hostages and have a sea spy, like, we're not doing this anymore,
We're going to refuse to serve. So the cracks are certainly showing, and so it's not preposterous this assessment from this individual, especially when you consider the numbers of Israelis who have said, yeah, I've thought about leaving, and I've taken some steps to investigate what that could look like.
Yeah, I mean, I just don't know what to make of all of these developments and what the Biden administration really will do after the election. They have multiple different opportunities about what to do and which policy. You know, for example, the Obama administration allowed some anti or not critical resolutions against Israel to go through the UN Security Council after the election when Trump was coming into office
during the transition, so they could take them. But I mean, all signs don't currently indicate that.
Yeah.
Right now, I just I really don't know why which way it's going to go. Astra stinwhar while you were talking, I was just making sure. Still don't see anything right now for me? Barak Revid says. Three Israeli officials say one of the bodies is most likely Sinwar. They will have to wait for DNA and fingerprint analysis. They say that Israel has both his DNA and his finger friends from the time that he is in prison, so they'll be able to know relatively short.
So be crazy for him to just be like out and about.
I mean, yeah, it's kind of mad to be not tracked, to be out and about with two bodyguards. I mean it also, frankly, I mean in terms of the Israeli intelligence machine, what does it say about them? They've been telling us like he's underground.
I know exactly, you know exactly where it is.
He's surrounded by hostages at all times. You know this is like, so which one is it? I mean, frankly, what he was doing is probably the smart thing. You actually want to keep a low profile. You don't want a bunch of guys around you. They're probably looking for the hostages more so you don't necessarily want to be around them. And the fact that he got caught on the ground like walking out in the open is kind of insane for it to be the literal leader of Hamas.
But maybe we'll learn a little bit more about it. They basically got it by accident. It looks like this was no bin laden style operations. Yeah, if it is one hundred percent.
So one quick update on that letter that I referenced before from the Biden administration to the Israelis was trying to put pressure on them with regard to be her lack of aid in Gaza in general, but Northern Gaza in particular, where no aid had gone in in the month of October whatsoever. We could put this up on the screen. So the idea in the State Department, this is per our own Ryan Graham are both claiming fifty AID trucks have entered North Gaza, but reporters on the
ground say this is false. We have a Palestinian journalist who elaborated on this. We could put this up on the screen as well. They say, the images and videos you're seeing that claim to show aid reaching Northern Gaza are highly misleading, part of a larger narrative being pushed by the Israeli military. I can confidently assert no aid trucks have entered the besieged areas. The AID that is entered has only gone to the southern parts of Gaza,
was intended primarily for media and propaganda purposes. Not a single truck has reached the northern areas since the start of the military operation there. And you know this is because the US sent this letter. The very likely game that's going to be played here is they'll do this photo op with some more AID trucks. You els, will use it to be able to see they're doing their job, and we put pressure on them, and look how great
we are and it's amazing. Problem solved. We're moving on and not take any sort of you know, not to change course whatsoever. That seems like the likely direction that we're ultimately going in here, based on the evidence we have and the track record we have as of today.
That's right.
All right, let's get to CNN. Wanted to make sure we covered there are two wild things that happened on CNN. Both it appears on the topic of race. So let's start with the first. There was a segment in which you had a pro Trump, pro Trump supporter who was black against a Kamala supporter and a host and some wild language was used. Let's take a lesson.
If you're an African American man. Look, let me boil this election down in the African American community to a very simple I'll reference to Great Malcolm X. This race is between house African Americans and field African Americans.
And the field.
African Americans are going for Donald Trump. I'm talking about your men who I'm talking about, Your men who build, your men who put things together, your men who work with their hands, your men who do things, not the men who push paper, and the men who are connected the power and want to continue to be connected to power. Are you derating me?
Are you denigrating or debating African American men who are professionals who work in white collar jobs?
Is that what I'm hearing from you or No.
I'm not trying to understand, Shelley the house, what I'm doing the field. I'm just trying to understand that point. I'm just trying to understand. We have someone who's spitting I'm just trying understand the one that's spitting talking points right now. Are you Are you the house negro of the field negbro that you're referring to so I just want to make sure your question was about denigrating black people. That literally was your question.
You have a.
Republican right who was talking right now about you literally just said that black men. You just you actually just said, this is an election about house or field. This is the nonsense that we are listening to right now by those that are supporting Donald Trump.
All right, So that was wild Shelley Winter is his name. He's a pro Trump radio host. I just I'm like, man, man, you know, why, why what do you want to use that terminology? There are probably ten million better ways to make that point. I mean, in a certain sense, you're like, I get what you're trying to say. You're talking about highly educated, like elite black.
Yeah, but we versus like people remember.
A blue collar But you're like, dude, this is that appropriate analogy.
Eighty percent, roughly perhaps more of black people in this country are going to overcome one.
Yes, that's right.
So you are insulting eighty percent of black merits not to mention. Not to mention, there are plenty of professional black men and women who will also be pulling the lever for it. I mean, it's just a Barack Obama's lecturing a black man got nothing on this guy, and just absolute slander against a vast swath of the country.
The funny thing too, is I remember, because I was reading this about Malcolm X, the whole point of this, the whole tirade that he gave was actulutely to speak against civil rights activists at the time, like Martin Luther King Junior, because he described them that way for trying to work within the political system right and to quote please the white master, whereas I mean eventually completely changed
his entire ideology. But in the nineteen sixties, whenever, in nineteen sixty three, when he gave this speech and he was still part of the Nation of Islam, it was about black nationalism and an ideology of actually, there's nothing that the white man can do for this, which he
then later denounced. So that's why it's part of the other reason why you really shouldn't be using that analogy, and especially looking at well, who was a little bit more successful at the end the long run by working within that and who ended up actually denouncing his own framework that he puts forward. So there you go. That
was wild. Second, and I guess on the other side of that was another wild moment where our friend Ryan Gurdusky, who's been on CNN a little bit more, had a moment where he revealed a lot I think about CNN, and he mentioned the Ferguson and the Floyd effect. Now, I guess I have to explain this. I thought any reasonable person who reads the news would know what it is.
That is an idea which came about after Ferguson and specifically a lot of the BLM movement from twenty fifteen, where there was a rise in crime as a result of the BLM riots and or demonstrations. The idea being that police were more afraid to pull over people. Basically, police were quiet quitting, which led to an increase in crime. It is not a difficult concept. If you are I'm going to say ten percent familiar with debates about criminal justice and about crime, you're going to know what these
two things is. Two things are Watch what happens when he uses this term on CNN, specifically with some people who are still called black activists, and they've never even heard of it before. Let's take a.
Listen yesterday Ryan about how, in the context of riots he was saying, let's just bring the military into it to deal with American citizens.
I mean that happened yesterday.
Right, But there are the post George Floyd riots resulted in excess of over fifteen thousand black male deaths in this country.
How the surge of violent crime.
It was like Ferguson, the ferus effect, the Florida fact.
You can explain to me how George Floyd's death any causation. Yes, it really is.
What happens is after the Ferguson riot and after the Floyd riot, policemen, in fear of their jobs many times and political coverage pull back from their jobs, resulting in an increasing.
Listen, I got to stop there at the country. Hold you can look at the was We.
Got to stop you there because you're literally making a connection out of your own conjecture.
Cannot, it's a real thing.
Look up, look up the Ferguson effect, look up the Floyd effect.
It is a real term.
You cannot, you can.
It's a I didn't just invent a connection between two things just because you want that to be there.
It's I mean little, it's a real thing.
Because reading this, we're talking about things that happened when Donald Trump was president.
He was the president.
So how is he not responsible for Well, the presidents controlled local police deport.
Okay, but you're trying to blame crime on Joe Biden and you don't blame Republicans have blamed crime on Joe Biden, but you cannot. But you're saying that that people who died when Donald Trump was president, that's not his fault.
I don't.
I don't agree with either blame being assigned to either president.
I think presidents blame.
You don't have a magic want.
Okay, I think that is so what you tell me what you think? I I just can't get over it. It's like, do you not read the news? But car E Sellers, you don't know what the freaking Floyd or Ferguson effect is. By the way I looked it up, Abby Phillips, that host you don't want to know who covered Ferguson for the Washington Post. Turns out it was Abby Phillips. You don't know what freaking Ferguson effect is her own paper while she worked there under that guy
was at Wesley Lowry. They did a million pieces trying to disprove the Ferguson effects. So look, whether you agree or not, how can you possibly not know what it is? I just don't get it. And then she kept cutting them off the whole time, saying it was totally invented. This is an FBI addressed terminology. Just ludicrous. So you give me a reaction, I can't get over it.
Yeah, I mean I think it's a very clear evidence of what bubbles these okay people live in, you know, because like as someone on the left, like I'm very familiar with this, I personally think it's sort of outrageous for cops like quite quit after because they faced grew me for you know, killing unarmed black citizens. But I'm definitely familiar with the term to be able to argue about it and talk about it. And so the fact that yeah, they all seemed like what are you even talking about?
Was it was kind of wild, that's what But car and Macary was like, you made that up? I looked at it. It was reaction on Twitter too, because a lot of conservatives were looking at this, and I mean the reason why I'm not sure it's a bubble thing and I'm actually like, are you just stupid? Is for you to have a conviction you should I would hope, like do a little bit of reading about Like you
just said, I have met a cab BLM people. They'll tell you all about how whether FERG is in effect and how it's bullshit, or about the Floyd effect well and why that's wrong.
I don't think it's don't.
Read about it, you don't investigate.
Maybe listen, I don't. I'm not going to like a fine on their IQ levels, but I can say I think it demonstrates a lack of seriousness about their concern for the problem.
Yeah, that's what I'm talking.
That's that I think is fair to say. And yeah, and it is partly a bubble problem because they're never in whatever their social media news consumption habits were, they were never confronted with this never term and have to deal with it and think about what it means and whether you know, whether the conservatives have a point about it, or what the push back on the left is or any of that. So to me, it displays not so much lack of intelligence, but lack of seriousness about the issue.
And you know, a sort of like surface level relationship to the you know, the protests that they cover.
Yeah, Ryan and I were talking about it yesterday and I'm like, you know, you know, we have both of us combined. How many hours a day do we just spend reading the news like and everything? I mean every you know things, even I strongly believe I read so many countercases, either to be familiar or to try and change my own mind. Who the hell knows, And I still obviously have biased problem. I know you do the same thing just to prepare for every single day of
being here. So to watch that, I was just like, oh my god, that one of thing do you even prepare for when you go on your like to talk with confidence on cable television. My rule was always I thought, you need about thirty minutes of reading too for every like one minute of speaking, And like what I meant by that is to distill an idea into a concise and thing to be able to address an argument. It
takes time. You need to be familiar with the things that are going on with the news, with all the facts, and then you can try and break down into a single thing. And even then, you know, here on our show we talk for almost two hours, they're talking for forty five yeah minute with each other, So maybe that's part of it.
That's what I was gonna I think that is part of it because anytime i've you know, I don't often I mean, they don't invite me on these shows any more, number one, But even when I engage in anything that's like even remotely like this format, it's a reminder to me of yeah, there's like six or eight minute segments. Yeah, you don't have to know a lot because if you just fill abuster through one answer or you know, stick your talking points, then that's it. So you can get
away with having a pretty surface level understanding. And also because you aren't oftentimes faced with people who have a different perspective or have facts or you know, it's to taste or whatever that's like uncomfortable for you've never had to grapple with that really, or don't have to grapple with it very often outside of the realm of just like is Trump good or Trump bad? Then you know it can lead to some major.
US Yeah, definitely that. Okay, guys, thank you guys so much for watching. We really appreciate you. If there's any breaking news, obviously we'll see you over the weekend. Otherwise we're going to see you all on Monday. Thanks so much for our premium subscribers,