Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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What do we have, Prystal?
Indeed we do.
We got Logan back in house to give us the latest update on his model, and also some new polling developments, both with regards to the presidential race in Pennsylvania specifically and with regard to Senate races. Texas may be more interesting than people previously thought, so we'll take a look at all of that. Also, Kamala Harris yesterday announcing her policy plan for black men, and it is really something
apparently I don't know. Well, allow to save all of my commentary on that for that involves week involves we involve giving and mail mentors and most neoliberal thing I've literally ever seen, so we'll dig into that. Also might be going on Joe Rogan Kamala Harris yesterday we covered, but Trump may be going on with Joe Rogan and today, so we felt the need to get this into the show today.
But apparently her people are in talks, so it'll be interesting.
I'm hoping. I think it'd be fun.
Clearly we're trying to make a pitch for the mail vote bro vote with all this crypto and Rogan doings, so we'll dig into that. We also Trump making some truly wild comments that we wanted to make sure and cover and what that could pretend in terms of election day in a future Trump possible administration. We're also going to take a look at this supposed third assassination attempt on Trump, which appears to be nothing of the sort.
We'll bring you all of the details there.
We also wanted to take some time out to take a look at the real estate market in Florida. You know, Florida experienced this massive during COVID. Post COVID boom, many people move to the state. You know, Ronda Standis and other politicians really really bragging about that, very proud of that. Some of that may be reversing now, so we're going to dig into the real estate market there, especially exacerbated now by the state being hit by two very severe hurricanes.
We've got some once again horrific updates for you out of Israel as well, including a New York Times report about how Israel has been systematically using Palestinians as human shield well documented sourced actually to the soldiers themselves who are engaged in this practice.
So will break all of that down for you as well.
That's right, before we get to any of that, make sure you go ahead subscribe Breakingpoints dot com.
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Election content, including one of our segments today with Logan, So if you want to be able to watch that and everything the show uncut AMAS, you can take advantage Breakingpoints dot Com become premubscriber. Let's get to Logan joining us now, Logan Phillips, our exclusive election forecaster, Logan.
We love seeing you here at the desk.
Welcome back, man, I love to be here.
Awesome. All right, let's dig into it.
You've got your forecast to the White House is going to put that up there on the screen. We've only got twenty days until the presidential election. You currently have it, Actually, it's narrowed a little bit since we talked last time. You have it fifty five forty five for Kamala Harris. Effectively, in my head, that's like a toss up, right, you know,
with only five percent margin or so. So talk to us about some of the movement within that why things have maybe tightened with a little bit with less time to go now before the rate.
Yeah, there's two reasons. Donal Trump skins a little bit in the national polls. We seem to more movement in the national polls as we do in some of these swing states. Yeah, but you know, Harris's lead is crept a little bit under three percent nationally. And the other thing is we had to rush the poles showing Trump aheaded Michigan in Wisconsin. Now, right, some of these were lower quality polls, but they were enough for them that they at least for me and I think everyone else,
they kind of pulled it a little closer. So, either that's true or not. We're gonna get a better sense in the next few days. But it's certainly a canary in the coal mine for Harris.
Got it all right, Well, let's let's sorry, go ahead, Crysal, Yeah, all right, well let's continue.
Let's continue then on the electoral college, because this is where what you were just talking about with the swing states, this stuff really matters. So A two please if we can put that up on the screen. Here, you have in the overall seven key swing states, you actually have Trump up by point five. They're in the state of Pennsylvania arguably the most important one Wisconsin, though you have Harris up by one in Nevada. I want to come back to this because you have Harris up by one
point six. It's a little bit different than what I've seen elsewhere. Trump up in North Carolina, and then you also have Wisconsin pretty well close there. So maybe explain a little bit of where things are here in the forecast. Also I misspoke, I apologize. Pennsylvania, you have Hairs up by one point three. Just explain a little bit here this margin some of the movement again that we've seen here, and your theory of whether they'll all move together or they won't.
Yeah, to some Pomey, they definitely will move together. But to quiet, there still can be that gap. And if the election is as close as the pole suggest and there is a big pulling miss. You could absolutely see division, right, but if either canon overperforms even by like one and
a half points, they could sweep all of them potentially. Yeah, And I think there's something really interesting going on right because, like the honestly, like at least since twenty twelve, we've seen Midwestern states that are a little bit more white like shift very very fast towards Republicans. Yeah, and Democrats start to zoom forward in the Sun Belt so fast. The states like Jordia that weren't even close in play, you know, are going for them if they win the
popular vote by enough. This year, it seems like the breaks have been stopped on both of those trends and maybe even reversed. And I'm wondering if you have something to do with the strategic objectives for both parties. The iceberg for the GOP is their low performance with non white voters that will kill them as the country becomes
majority minority. And for Democrats, the short term iceberg, the one that almost cost them in twenty twenty and did cost them election in sixteen, is their poor performance with
white voters. And so perhaps these as both parties achieving their goals to some degree, which has caused the map to kind of shift a little bit in the other direction, where Democrats are doing better than they did in the Midwest last time relative to the national vote, and actually maybe even worse than Georgian Arizona.
Yeah.
So sticking with that point, you're specifically talking about Democratic gains with white voters, probably white college educated voters, and then Trump and get Republican performance with black and Latino votes, specifically men, which we're about to get to.
In a little bit.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, and mostly how much it doug goes in reality. I mean, there's a constant trend of polls underrating Democratic support of black voters, and you know, New York Times Nate Cohen went into this recently as one of the possibilities, right, is that some of the supporters that are some black voters that say they're going to support Republicans don't often vote necessarily their low propensity voters. Yeah,
so it hasn't always shown up. Part of that's due habits, some of that is due to the GOT efforts in the black commun You're often targeted more towards Democratic groups, right, and Republicans haven't really put much effort or resources in they're just starting to where they're not going to catch up in one cycle.
Yeah, we're going to cover in the next blocks on the Kamala Harris's effort to reach men in general, black men specifically. And I've had the same question in my mind because back in twenty twenty, there were also a lot of polls that showed like, oh, Joe Biden might underperform with black men, but then when it came to election day, he had the same performances Democrats typically have. So I think that's a big question mark.
We wanted you to.
Dig into a little bit of Pennsylvania because I imagine your assessment is the same as ours, the same with a lot of other people, that Pennsylvania may be effectively the.
Whole ball game.
There's some interesting early voting data that I wanted you to take a look at and tell us what, if anything, we should make of it. Tom Bonnier, who's with Target Smart, which is a Democratic aligned firm.
But you know, I mean, their data is just data. She's taking a look at it.
So let's put this thread up on the screen. Let me show you a few pieces of this. So he says, if you look at the vote report in Pennsylvania. So far Democrats have a solid advantage in terms of party registration. That the gap is smaller than it was in twenty twenty at the same point, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Go ahead to the next one. Here we can take a look, he says. Let's look at the early vote by modeled partisanship, so not just what people
self identify, but what their target. Smart modeling suggests their vote will be. It shows a wider dem lead than at this point in twenty twenty.
Why is that.
The answer as simple, the model believes that the unaffiliate voters are more Democratic than they were in twenty twenty. If we could go to the next one as well, He's been pointing out that there appears to have been in multiple states a huge surge in Black women registering to vote and so far also turning out to vote.
He says, looking at the racial breakdown of women early voters in PA, we see the biggest increases among women of color, especially Black women, whose turnout is two hundred and forty eight percent of their turnout at this point in twenty twenty, compared to one hundred and forty six percent for white women, so women in general turning out at higher rates than they do in twenty twenty. What, if anything, do you make of these numbers? How should we think about these things?
Yeah, I don't know if it can tell us too much about who's going to win, because it's so hard to interpret early vote accurately, especially getting how much the electorate is changing with the early voting habits post COVID. That being said, it does tell us a story of what the parties you're trying to do and whether they're being successful. Republicans were trying really hard to reverse some of the fears about early voting and voting by mail, Jess.
Maybe they've made some ground on that front. That doesn't mean they're going to win the election. Some of these guys would have voted on election day. But it's a lot easier when you have a GOTV operation to get people to vote early because you don't have to then worry about them in the final stretch, and you can focus your resource.
You can kind of check them off and focus on the people who you're still working to persuade to.
Turn out exactly, and then on the democratic front, right as we're just talking about the fear is, how are they going to have the same level of turnouf with black voters, especially in Philadelphia and Milwaukee. And so we're seeing some good signs in Pennsylvania Wisconsin on that front for Dems. And you know, turnout was high across the board. It was a little lower in some of these cities.
And twenty twenty relative to the rest of the state, Democrats managed to win anyway, and you know they're hoping that that doesn't happen in twenty twenty four. And this is a sign that they're planned to change. This is working. And you know, the Harris campaign, everyone says has a pretty great GEOTV operation. I think there's a question mark on Trump's because he has had his super packs take the lead on that they're using some new stratus jeez, and could work out. It could also kind of blow
up in their face. And a lot of GOP operatives are worried about that.
That.
Well, Elon is a big part of the turn on operation of Pennsylvania.
Yes, the America Pack.
Yes, yeah, So sometimes innovation in politics is very important can work.
And Elon himself is kind of interesting because.
The guy either kills it or it fails it's a good way for that's a very good way for you.
Can we put the New York Times pull up on screen?
I want to talk to you about this A four please mystery repeats Harris up by four and Pa, according to the New York Times, Trump up by six in Arizona. So there was a previous theory that all seven swing states would either go one way or the other way kind of how they did in twenty twenty. This time, like you just said, we see a rid of a reversal in that trend. This both of the parties are fighting to accomplish the two things that cost them previous elections.
Is that what you see going on here? What are the key characteristics of why and how there could be a ten point spread between these two critical swing states.
So I think it's unlikely it's that big, but it's possible. Right, it's probably the spread of Polsters have it, or at least anything I can think of off the cuff. But the New York Times theory of the case, and they're smart, so maybe they're right. Yeah, is that Democrats are genuinely doing better with white voters, especially white college educated voters, and that is enabling them to do better in the Midwest, but they are losing ground with non white voters and
therefront and performing in the sun Belt. So they see the national vote being worse for Democrats and a lot closer than everyone else's showing right now, and they show but they still have Democrats winning for that Midwest path.
And that would be a twenty twenty two scenario, right because that's what we talked a lot about yesterday. Times both budding on this political realignment. In this scenario, would you expect Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada to all move similarly? Because I saw it in your forecast. You have Nevada Harris up, but you know I've seen Trump up there almost by six points in some places, which is a crazy reversal. When's the last time Republicans one, I want to say two thousand and four.
Yes, it's a long time.
I saw the same pole, and I think that one was an ally. I'd be shocked if you one. I want to be shocked to be one about it, but I'd be shocked be one by six. I think that Nevada is probably a little easier for Dems than maybe even the other three Midwest states. Based off the current polling. But it's a hard state to poll, and the GOP it's been their white whale, and it's not because it's an uncatchable one.
They're barely losing.
Yet every time it's like this close, so they could win.
And in twenty fourteen they just had Democrats went completely a wall in the state and PLP won the House seats by combined eighteen percent. I think they won the governor race by forty. So like there's the you can't roll out of. It is a reason it's on the swing state list.
Yeah, I mean it's such a unique state demographically, and also just with the union density and the nature of the i mean the culinary workers union and how much the service sector are dominated. So it's not like you know, hardcat construction unions which have really shifted towards Trump.
It's the service.
Sector unions which have stayed more in the Democratic camp. But you know, still you have a state where there was hit very hard by COVID, where economic concerns are really paramount, where the demographics may not at this point in time, particularly favor Democrats in terms of you know,
some of the realignments and some of the ships. But you know, to go back to your point about if the New York Times theory is correct about the shifts in the electorate, if Kamala Harris wins those quote unquote blue Wall states but loses all the other ones, she wins two seventy to sixty eight, Like I mean, right, am I doing that math right as close as it could effectively possibly with Nebraska, with which kind of terrifies me, just given the way that the post election last time went,
with all the conspiracy theories and all of the ink January six and all of the chaos. Like, if it is that razor thin, I think we're in. I won't ask you to a pine on that piece, but I think we're in for some very troubled times post election day. If it is truly that narrow of a margin.
I know what you're talking about, Chris. So I think everyone in the country will handle that very piece.
Somewhere's gonna be like, Okay, we're so great, we congratulate our new presidential victor.
We'll I'll move forward.
I wanted to add I did want you to have pine though on this phenomena of quote unquote trash polls and whether you think this is a real thing. We could put the real clear politics average up here. These are all of the pencil recent Pennsylvania polls, and many of them are favoring Trump, but also many of them.
Are partisan polls.
A few of them are ones that I think you could you could classify in that junk poll or trash pole status. So talk to us about the rise of some of these new pollsters and how we should be thinking about that in terms of these these states and these numbers.
Yeah, well, you know, I don't really like to talk about this, and my fellow you know, polster pull averagers out there, but RCB does have a bit of a tendency to include some of the GOP internal polls and managed to take off some of the high quality polls that might show that Democrats ahead sometimes.
So yeah, it might be a little skewed.
I think there is some concerns, especially for as Musen Trafalgar, you know as Muson in particular. They had a poll a year ago that they put out that they said proved that doctor Fauci had killed more people than anyone since the Holocaust.
And so there's five thirty eight.
Then I'd exactly like straight shooting.
With that, I don't bet almost anyone, right, Like I might lower the rating, but like it's a high standard for me.
But Resnution just kind of met that and vaulted over it. So some of these are a little less reputable than Okay.
Well, My question though, is and the reason why I'm focusing on it, is that this was such a key part of the twenty twenty two story. Is that if you had and I put this out like a couple of days ago, and one of the common responses I got is, look, you know, even by Republicans, they're like, look,
liberals are not wrong. But there were a lot of crappy stuff in the overall polling averages leading up to twenty twenty two, which led to a false picture where if you scroll down and you look at Maris, New York Times, Sienna, they all mostly had Fetterman up by a couple of points, and they were right right. And so if we want to for the viewer out there who doesn't just want who wants to look for themselves and try and figure this out not necessarily rely on
a waiting measure, how should they think about it? Like, how do you think about it when you're rating different people. Is it just accuracy?
Is it?
You know, like samples, just talk to us about that, because I think we have an audience that really wants to get in the ways here.
Yeah, yeah, I think. I think. I guess she's a big part of it.
And you know, it does just because you got to right one cycle doesn't mean you get it right the next cycle.
Right.
And a lot of these posters have a tendency to miss a little to the left, a little to the right, and it makes it harder. Sometimes they change their approach. Emerson used to miss to the left. Now they appear to be to the right of most polsters change their strategy, so that makes it a little harder.
I would say, I think one.
Of the ones that's shifted to the self identification of like you know how you voted last time.
I believe that Emerson uses that, but I'm not absolutely sure they definitely include that in all of their polls. Yeah, and that's also that's a really good point, right, Like that's the gamble polsters. Some posters are taking some of like the Maybe they're not like New York Times or Maris like the top ones, but ones that are still rapputable.
It's sort of like a shortcut.
They're saying, Okay, if the electric's like e's actually like twenty twenty, how are these voters going to vote? But we know for in fact the electric's not going to be like twenty twenty. Yeah, right, because that was the highest turnout election in American history, if we unless we go back before women had the right to vote, and which I don't think we should.
You said previously, you talked about how you think turnout will be a little bit less this time around. So where do you think things was around twenty sixteen twenty twenty, Like, what are our benchmarks here?
You're making to hire for me? It's lolasier to be right if I just take less than.
The highest turnout. Yeah, yeah, I.
Don't really know to answer that question.
That's such a hard one to estimate, And that is why Poster's job is so hard, because you have to get a sample of the electorate with people who aren't responding to phone calls as much to get an idea of both how likely they are to vote and who are they going to vote for instead. Honestly, the best approach are ones like selzer uses in Iowa, where you just call people on voter registration files and you ask you figure out how likely they are to vote by
asking them some questions, then you can project turnout. But even then you get that's part of why polls are a lot more accurate at the last second, because it's not just that people change their mind, is that people might commit to voting or not voting.
Yes, yeah, that's such a key point.
Yeah, that is a great point.
Let's kind of move on to the Senate forecast, and for those of you who are premium subscribers, we're gonna have this posted early exclusively for you. We're gonna have a posted later in the week for all. But if you want to get this heads up straight from Logan as soon as possible, which we know you all do, go and subscribe Breakingpoints dot com. All right, let's go and put up this.
Kamala Harris is out with some new policy proposals. She needs to win over black voters, specifically black mail voter, so she appeared on the Shade Room Predominantly black podcast.
We're going to talk about that. Let's take a listen.
President Barack Obama, he was campaigning for you in Pittsburgh before some students at the University of Pittsburgh, which is my alma mater, and he said some things that really ruffled some feathers.
In the news.
He said, it makes me think you aren't just feeling the idea of having a woman as a president. You're coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that. We have not seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and community as we saw when I was running. So when you hear those words, I'm sure you were briefed on the situation.
You know, a former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner, she came out on CNN and said, why are you, you know, putting black men up against the wall and pressuring them into something that possibly, you know, they don't want to do if they want to vote for you or not. So my question to you is do you think that what President Obama said was the right thing to say.
Let me tell you, I am very proud to have the support of President Obama and that he is out traveling to talk with voters about what is at stake in this election.
I'm very proud.
To have his support.
What is also important is one to understand, like, as I said, I intend to earn the vote of everyone, including black men. Two, pay attention to everything that President Obama talked about, because he talked about at length.
The danger of Donald Trump.
The danger I think is really important to focus on the stakes of this election. And there are two choices, two choices. And I ask everyone to look at the background, look at the work, look at the words.
Hmm, all right, so pretty clearly she is she may not be too so happy with Barack Obama. He's put her in a little bit of a bind. I mean, look, anybody running for office as opposed to Obama, in his masterly sinecure just lecturing all of us mere mortals, actually has to grapple with like he no longer has to get himself elected. And also I would say he never did that when he was trying to get himself elected. It's only now that he's influencer Netflix, Obomba, his.
Era, the whole like my Brother's Keeper thing. It's pretty consistent with his politics of you know, black respectability.
I think you're not wrong.
I guess I would just put it as like this nakedness of I mean, he literally was like I want to speak to the brothers out there, I'd be like, some of y'all ain't voting for women, and you're making things up. I'm like, dude, you are literally trying to tell people not only what to think, but if what they think.
Is not going along with you, that you're a straight up sexist.
That is an insane thing to do for any group, not just black people. I mean, if some Indian person was to my Indian brothers out there.
Like, who the fuck are you.
To be talking?
I have to think, yeah, well, I mean I think so two things are possible. One is that he actually got crosswise with the way Kamala wanted to message this. And that's actually my guess because she has been very careful to not fall into the Hillary Clinton trap of being you know, actively contemptfual of voters or messaging like she doesn't have to earn their vote, she's just entitled to it.
Also, she's really.
Of thank god this messaging around like what's important about this election is my trailblazing status, Like she has dodged.
All of that, even you'll recall, And she.
Got asked that question on CNN by Dana Pash of like like teed her up to trash Trump over his comments about she's not really black or whatever, She's just like same old playbook, Let's move on, And so I think it's likely that she's actually not happy about this messaging from Obama. It's also possible, though, that they feel like he has the.
Cred to lecture black He doesn't. Nobody does.
No one should right to lecture blackmail voters. Whereas obviously if it was her trying to pull that off, it would go even more poorly than it did with Obama.
But I don't know.
I thought with her pivot there, it seemed to me like she was actively unhappy about this direction. When we were talking to Logan previously, you mentioned that there is a lot of discussion online of like, oh, Kamala is doing this media blitz now because their internals must be really poor, and by and large, I think Logan analysis of like, also, it's almost election day, and like, of course the candidates are likely to be doing media appearances.
I think that's largely true, but it does seem like there is a particular nervousness around black mail voters.
Specifically, that is true, she's doing Charlemagne today.
As evidenced by this podcast Charlemagne the you know, the policy proposals we're about to talk about and rip apart the Obama comments, et cetera. There does seem to be some nervousness about that specific demographic group that they're kind of telegraphing in some of these moves.
Absolutely, because I mean, look, it's a game of margins, and it's one of those where I guess just stick on this point. You know, everyone's like, oh, the internals must be bad if she's going on Fox News, I rogan, I'm like, what if the internal show that it's a fifty to fifty race, and if I had only a fifty percent shot of accomplishing the single most important thing I'll ever do in my life, I would be doing some crazy shit to make sure that that got from
fifty to fifty one to fifty two. Even fifty point five is better than fifty. So maybe that's just me. But let's put B two up on the screen just to set up again why this policy propose is coming from Harry anton Over at CNN. No matter how you splice the data, Trump seems to be the strongest Republican with black voters since nineteen sixty. Young black men in particular have trended right towards Trump runs, cutting the DEM
margin by forty points from twenty twelve. But Trump is doing historically well with black women too, So that is the key point is that this is the biggest realignment of black voters, at least poised to be since the Civil rights era.
I want to say though that I I'm reserving judgment until it actually happens. Sure, because we did see these same trends heading into the Biden twenty twenty run, where you know, he was trailing how Hillary Clinton did, and there was a big discussion about this, and on an election day, black voters overall showed up for him and basically the same numbers as previously. So and there has been some polling that's been contradictory. And I put a lot of stock in the New York Times pool because
they did a super sample of black voters. That means they had a larger groups that were able to look more, you know, in detail at this data. But there have been other polls that have show Kamala performing just as well with black voters as Biden did last time around. So to me, it's not definitive that this is going to manifest, but there's certainly been a significant amount of
polling data that suggests it could. And as I said before, the Kamala Harris team seems to be projecting some nervousness that this trend with black men in particular could be the case. I'm fairly persuaded with the numbers on how many new black women registered to vote and are showing up in the early voting periods and the states that we have data to say, I don't think that she probably is going to have an issue there with black women.
We also see women in general this large gender gap in you know, with women favoring Kamala and a large gender gap with men more favorable towards Trump. So I'm definitely more skeptical about the black women piece of this, but I think it's definitely possible with black men.
Yeah, definitely.
And well, again to underscore I guess the policy proposal, whether they whether it's true or not, they seem to believe it and they're acting in that way.
So let's put this up on the screen.
Kamala now has some new opportunity agenda for black men. Let me just go through it. Provide one million loan dollar loans one million loans that are fully forgivable up to twenty thousand dollars for black entrepreneurs and others to start a business. Support education, training and mentorship programs that lead to good paying jobs for black men, including pathways to become teachers. Protect cryptocurrency investments so black men who
make them know that their money is safe. Launch a national health initiative focused on illnesses that disproportionately impact black men. And legalize recreational marijuana to create opportunities for Black Americans to succeed in this new industry. You called it peak neoliberalism, and I genuinely do think that is so accurate because I mean, let's just fix cite.
On this a little bit. So we're going to provide a million dollars in loans.
To specifically people for the their skin. M Okay, so we're going to affirmatively it doesn't.
Mean to say it says black entrepreneurs and others. Oh yeah, so it's not even really clear.
It's just okay, Well, I guess then we're just cherry picking what exactly that means. Some of it will go to black people. Cool, we're going to support mentorship programs. I want everyone out there in your life to ask yourself if you want a mentor provided to you by the government. That's an insane thing to do. We're going to provide government mentor. Here is your government issued mentor to make sure that you live a better life.
And that is some pure Obama eraship.
Yeah, definitely, it really is.
I mean that was like his My Brother's Keeper program and all of that. But yeah, I mean I saw Perry Bacon Jr. Who's I think he's still the Washington Post, right, the Washing Post previously at NBC, himself a black man, saying, like, you know, I don't really love the idea being put out there that black men specifically need mentors. The other one that really gets me is, okay, crypto, let's just put a pin in that, because I have a lot to say about that one.
The health one.
So they describe this in you know, in the greater detailed part as a National Equity Health Initiative focused from the like National Institute of Health on illnesses that disproportionately
impact black men. And this is where I really can dig into how what I mean by like this is the peak of neoliberalism, Why can't you just run on universal health care so that we don't have to pick and choose, Like, oh, if you got prostate cancer, maybe we'll care about that and do a health equity initiative, not even giving you care, but some study at the NIH, thank you very much, Or like oh, if you need.
IVF, maybe we'll pay for that.
How about we just have healthcare that would, yes, actually disproportunately benefit black men and other marginalized group, but would help everybody and you know, not be like pathetically inadequate and patronizing as many of these things are. And that's what drives crazy about this is We've talked about this a nauseum, but it's just worth reminding people the policies. I'm not saying that it is never the case that it makes sense to have policies that are specific to
a demographic group. I'm not saying that like blanket across the board, but we know from history that the policies that have most improved the lives and economic status of Black Americans have been universal policies like lifting the minimum wage, like increasing rates of unionization.
Like you know, in a.
Theoretical world where democrats still cared about and talked about healthcare, universal health care. And so that's why this sort of like let me do some niche, little bullshit programs for some targeted demographic group drives me so crazy.
And I mean again, you know, just to stick with And this is part of why the whole equity mindset is so stupid. When they're like health initiatives on prostate cancer, it's like, you know, prostate cancer is a cancer that affects most men generally, specifically people.
Who are poor and unhealthy. Well, you know, if we.
Talk about diseases that are the worst, most impactful on black communities, it's the same statistically for people who are poor and who don't have access to healthcare, eat a shitty diet. So it's like, it's not complicated to think about it that way. And also if you if you put it that way, it sounds a lot better, right, Hey, all these diseases that disgrationally impact you know, men who are old, obese, diabetic, We're going to try and fix that.
That will help black people, help white people, it'll help everybody. You know, there's a lot of poor white people out there too, also suffer from prostate cancer. From diabetes and from a lot of this stuff. So that's nonsense. Look on the weed thing, you can keep everybody here knows that I'm against weed, all right, I think it's bad. But how if I was black and I was, like, man, I would be so insulted that one of the key
pillars is let's legalize weed. They're like, oh, let's give you people drugs?
Is that?
Like?
How is that not so insulting to these people to be like, oh, they really like to smoke weed? Right, Like, what the fuck this? We're going to.
Legalize drugs specifically for a specific demographic if you want to. But she didn't even mention, you know, that's one of those really, Look, I don't agree with it. People are like, oh, black people just portually get arrested for it or whatever or have in the past, so it needs to be you know, redistributed with some criminal justice bullshit. Fine, doesn't make a lot of sense to me still with the current data, but I could.
Understand that on this one.
It's literally like, we need to legalize weed, and we need to legalize it so that you can sell it and you can do a better job of being a fucking legal drug dealer. I'm like, how is that not so insulting to people that it's like, that is the epitome in my head of handoutism, and it's like and it doesn't get called racist or anything by the media, and that's that's the pinnacle of racism.
Yeah, to me, legalize drugs for you.
What, I support the policy, right, I support both the legalizing and I support the you know, the idea of this is the community. It's been most impact, is it We're opening up this new business opportunity, like, let's do things in there.
I'm good with all of that. But you're so right to.
Put it as a specific plank framed in life. This is our blackmail agenda is really something. Yeah, here's weak for Let's talk about crypto though, because there is so much going on with the fact again that they put the crypto plank in this particular policy proposal, and it's no secret why. There's actually, you know, significant pulling that suggests that black men are you know, disproportionately actually holders of crypto. So that's part of why they include this plank.
That's that's their logic. But there also has been Crypto has already won this election. Let me just say that, right the Biden administration, through Gary Gensler at the SEC, they have aggressively enforced the laws that are on the books against crypto, against scams, and against you know things, people getting scammed in the financial world in general, and
Crypto has been subject to that enforcement. And there has been over years now a large and concerted effort that was very visible when it's Sam Bankman freed, but has very much continued at large scale after that. And Crypto is now one of the largest corporate contributors that industry to the presidential campaign and down ballot campaigns in this whole cycle. This is one of the areas whe Kamala has really pretty consistently signaled that she will actually be
different from Joe Biden. She will be more lax on enforcement. And I was just reading this morning soccer. I didn't know all of his backstory, but they've really made an example of Katie Porter in particular, where in the weeks before her election, a crypto affiliated pack dump ten million dollars into ads against her. They didn't have anything to do with cryptocurrency these ads, but into ads against her.
She loses, and that ended up being like a warning shot at all Democrats and Republicans that hey, you better not get crosswise here. And they've wrapped it all in this language of like, oh, entrepreneurship and innovation, et cetera, et cetera. And Trump completely flipped on crypto Kamala versus Biden. She's completely you know, signaled that she's got to be different on crypto too. And so you know that manifests and things like saying that part of your blackmail agenda
is quote unquote protecting crypto assets. It's you know, it's extraordinary to see the influence of money and politics.
In real time.
I have a conflict of interest on this one. I like crypto. I'm a hodler myself. Yeah, you don't really get scammed. H No, I actually did get scammed. Yeah, as people here. No, I lost five thousand dollars on a block flight by the way, actually finally got my money back. I don't know how exactly that happened, but one day I got an email and they're like, here, you know, somehow the bankruptcy clawback stuff worked. So you know, it only took a couple of years and being in
the in the weeds. But they're as what they point out is that there are a lot I mean men in particular from Robinhood, Crypto and all, especially back in the twenty twenty one twenty twenty two era, probably did buy a decent amount of crypto.
I bought a lot before that.
The point is is that what they are trying to do is in This is just hand out shit.
This is not anything that has.
To do with what is the way that we should have a well regulated like commerce and exchange. What should the future of American monetary you know, policy look like, like, how should we think about banking? How should we make sure that people are protected? This is just pure like trying to get into the weeds of quote unquote like appealing to people by talking about some tiny, little specific thing, which ends up, in my opinion, being very very patronizing.
So this entire thing, you know, I'm really hoping Charlemagne has an interview with her today around like five pm. It's gonna be live. I'm gonna be watching it, and he does a good job of cutting to the core of this stuff.
So I saw him recently.
He was just talking with Andrew Schaltz talking about young black men and their appeal with Trump and I'm really hoping he focuses in on that with her and just just tries to get to the crux of like, what's actually happening happening here and is it not very patronizing the way that you were talking, both Obama and her in the way that this being put for. And of course you've got Bacari Sellers and all these other black congressmen out there, like, look at Kamalo's incredible plan for
black men. I'm like, again, I cannot imagine how it's still that would be if my leaders and I supported Elders and all these other people.
This is what they were saying, is so good for you, you.
Know, It's just I don't know's there's so much lack of individualism in the way that you even look at any of this.
You know, Nina, we had Nina Turners and her Nina Turner on yesterday. I encourage you to watch her her comments. Her first reaction when she before she really read through the plan details, was like, Okay, well, at least they're trying to appeal to people through policy, and I think that's fair. But it's also fair to look at the
policy and say this patronizing that and bad. Just to dig one layer deeper on the crypto thing, because I've been thinking a lot about this, the reason that so many black part of the reason so many black men have crypto investments is because they've been locked down on so many other forms of wealth accumulation and wealth building, lower home ownership rates, you know, discriminated against in terms of banks and the mortgage rates that's their charge, or
whether they even approved for a loan, And so crypto really offered this, you know, this utopian vision of like, well, this is the new financials, this is how you're gonna make it, This is how you're going to be able.
To build wealth.
And you know, some of that is genuine and some
of it has just been completely fraudulent in scams. So, you know, again to get to like the neoliberal point of this, rather than really doing anything that's going to fundamentally address that lack of wealth accumulation, it's like, well, we're just going to like keep enabling the scammers and make sure that they're regulated more lightly so that they can so that the people who have lots of crypto or because crypto is also rife with massive inequality in
terms of who's benefiting and who's on the other end sometimes getting screwed.
So we're going to make sure that.
Those people at the top can continue to get theirs and continue to, like you know, in certain instances, screw you over.
That's part of what's so disturbing her.
And just you know, the specific fight is really around which agency is going to regulate crypto and do the enforcement, and the SEC tends to be more aggressive. There's another body, the CFTC that the crypto industry wants to be the regulator because they think that they just basically won't really
conduct any oversight there. And like I said, at this point, I think it's it doesn't really matter which of these candidates wins because both of them have already signaled that they're going to do what the crypto industry once.
So anyway, that's where we are.
We do have an axios ters you can just show put up on the screen there B five just to you know, back up what I was saying before about the amount of money that this sector has donated, and they've launched this whole campaign aimed at elites, at political elites to convince them. There as a quote unquote crypto voter who is going to be basing their vote on whether crypto is regulated at the SEC or the CFTC, that this is like the primary thing that they're going
to be voting on. There's no evidence that that's really the case outside of you know, the Mark Cubans of the world and like the people who kind of at.
The top of that industry.
But I think the politicians are buying that that's the case, and they're certainly buying that they don't want to get crosswise of this industry because of the amount of money they had to spend against you if you if you undercut them or if you piss them off.
Kamala Harris is now apparently in talks with Joe Rogan to appear on the.
Joe Rogan podcast.
Not see this one coming.
I did not see it coming as well.
I think it's a welcome development and so just a little bit more behind the scenes. Obviously, this just broke and they didn't have much detail on it.
But what they say is that and I was actually kind of curious about this.
They're like, Kamala's representatives met with Rogan's representatives, and I'm like, which represents exactly maybe his agent? I mean as far as I know, Yeah, like Amy's Jami meeting with I would I would pay to see money of Jamie meeting with.
Somebody from Anita Dunn or whoever.
That would be hilariously.
Uh yeah, I think I mean Joe's again, I have no insie knowledge, but I mean he has talked previously. He's like as one booker and one manager, so maybe as one of those people that has done it. But regardless, this comes on the heels of Trump saying that he would be he would be going on rogue and we don't know if that's true, whether he had confirmed it
or any of not. Maybe it's the case that Joe was trying to say, well, if I'm going to have Trump and I want to have both one and extended the offer.
That's what most people have done who.
Have interviewed both candidates, They've put in offers with both, and usually it's either Trump or Comma or whatever who will accept that. In this case, though, this actually now has the chance of happening, and that would be kind of amazing and it's funny again.
I want to come back to this.
There's so many people out there who are like, oh, the internals must be bad. And I'm like, again, if you are in a fifty fifty race and you want to go and reach millions of people who may not be engaging with the mainstream media, why would you not go on this podcast? And look, I mean, I guess the answer is you're not confident in what you believe or in what say. The thing is, though Joe is
not is a curious interviewer. He doesn't usually get into some prolonged back and forth or something him mostly just asking questions, did back and listen. So if you want to explain your actual thought process, which is what Joe Rogan, oh, which is what Bernie Sanders did when he went on, which is what Andrey Yang did when he went on, which is what RFK Junior did whenever he went on, I can't think of a better format to go in.
And also, if you have somebody, so Joe is probably going to challenge her a little bit on some of the things that he disagrees with her on. But he is one of those people who said consistently he's like, look, I'm mostly like liberal in many things. You know, I'm very liberal on the issue of abortion. I'm very conservative on the issue of guns traditionally, like was a Democrat and all that, but I moved to Texas because of
my disagreement. I mean, that would give her a format to talk to people out there who ness who might align with his view. So I can't think of a better place to go, not just Rogan, but any like Manosphere era stuff where you think you could get at least somewhat of an honest convo, Go for it, Like if you're in a fifty to fifty election, you should be doing it. Everyone was dunking on Kama for going on call her daddy. I think Trump should go and call her daddy.
I'm absolutely I think you should do it. He would do well, That's what I don't understand the caution.
He's grew up on Howard Stern and in the New York tabloids. You think he can't handle freaking Alex Cooper. Of course he can. I mean, what are some of his best moments in these mainstream media interviews with CNN or with MSNBC, either when he spars or whatever, you know, disarms them with a joke. So anyway, that's my opinion. I think Kamas should go on then nelk boys Uh, Trump should go on call her dad with absolutely, yeah she should. Hey, she wants to talk about crypto crypto gambling.
She could be read a Steak dot com and.
You're getting the uh, you're getting the King of the Bros. Here, she's going straight to the top show with White Brogan.
Good.
But I mean, okay, So there's a few things to say about this. First of all, it's not without risk for sure, because yeah, I mean, Joe is not a journalist. He's not gonna do the like, you know, super adversary, we're going to ask you five times whatever. But he has made people look stupid on his show, just kind of casually like humiliated a variety of people on his show, and that is not on the question because he's a good listener and he's just he's a good question asker.
So that's a risk for her. And we all know.
How she is like on her feet in these interviews, even like on the view with softball questions.
She can definitely screw it up. There's no doubt about it. So it's risky. I hope she does it.
I think it'd be very interesting to see. I think it would be smart if she pulls it off. I think it would be intelligent. If she doesn't pull it off, then it will obviously be a mistake. The other thing I just have to comment on though, is Sager, you remember the way liberals smeared Bernie Sanders.
Yes, I do, Yes, I do.
Not so much, but just going on the podcast, but Joe made this comment like, oh, I'll probably vote for Bernie Sanders. They were like cool, the number one podcast
in the world said he would vote for me. Like, let me make a thing of that, as a politician would the number of liberals who absolutely smear how dare you platform this racist sac is blah blah blah blah blah, who are now going to be out there like, oh, it's so great that christ Kamala was going on with Joe Rogue and like, I just you know, I'm here
for it. I'm absolutely here for the way that these people have zero principles or values and we'll just turn on a dime when it suits them with their their favorite candidates.
So looking forward, looking forward to Yeah.
Well you can stick with that theme actually, because what also was announced is that she will be doing a sit down interview with Brett Bayer over at Fox News for a prolonged period of time. But I think it airs. It either is today or at airsmorrow, I forget. Yeah, But the point is is that previously, remember Elizabeth Warren tried to get everybody on the DNC stage to raise their hand.
In boycott Fox News.
But now whenever its election time, like, yeah, well you should go on Fox.
They've been loving Pete budaju Jeh on Fox News. That's like one of their favorite things because I mean he does he handles himself very well in the format, and so yeah, they really love when he goes on there.
And Birthing went on Fox. He did a whole town home that was.
One of the watch the best moments he did fantastic. He had a Fox News audi cheering for them, and so yeah, I mean Brett Baer, you know, he's going to frame things from kind of like a center right perspective, but he's not going to be like wildly unfair right there.
He's like a sixty minute style journalist.
He's just gonna sit there and be like, he used to say this about illegal immigrants, and now you say this, How do you square that he used to say this and now you say this?
How it'll be it will be.
Frankly, I think better than Dana Basher any of these other people who've interviewed her. I actually got the sixty minutes guys. Credit to them outside of the whole editing fiasco. But the actual journalist journalist. That's not the journalists at least I assume so. But the actual guy you interviewed her, he did a pretty good job, right, He has a decent.
Amount follow ups.
That's probably what we should expect here, And in general, you should be doing more of these things. So I keep seeing this like, oh, she must be losing and all that. I'm like, well, first of all, if you think you're losing, the best way to do is do something drastic. So I think that's good, even though I don't think it's all that drastic to go on any of the things. But you should always just be doing everything you possibly can to reach as many people that
you can. Before an election, a lot people make up their minds right around right now on.
Whether they're going to vote who they're going to vote for. So this is it, This is what you should be doing.
Trump is doing a ton of podcasts in the lead up, and Kamalas should be doing more.
Fox News has a large viewership and not News Channel. Not all of them are diehard Trump supporters. You know, they've got their Kamala's doing this whole whether I like it or not, She's doing this whole, Nikki Aley, Liz Cheney voter strategy, and there will be some of those people watching Fox News. So you know, again, it all depends is it a smart strategy. It all depends on how she does. I can't say that the last week's media strategy worked out particularly well for her.
The sixty minutes interview not great. The view interview not great.
But you know, apparently they have enough confidence that they think that these additional media appearances can help to clean things up.
Definitely, all right, And oh, I said Jessee Trump was on Bustin' Busting with the Boys, which is a barstool podcast.
Oh really incredible. I mean, Josie, he's doing.
Many more podcasts than these rallies. This thing, this is really his.
He seems to doing like one in one yeah, I mean, look, it doesn't take that long in film, right, So it's like one of those where why not you know, you can set it up and you can actually make it and reach a bunch of people who were talking about otherwise about college football. I wonder what the crossover is when college football and South and Trump. I mean, it
doesn't take a genius to see these things. If anything, is crazy that it took so long for politicians to embrace charcass It's more of a lagging thing than it is something in the former