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Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. We have a great show for everybody today. But of course we have the statness going on right now with Hurricane Milton making landfall, but we are going to cover that and we're going to get to a lot of other political stuff as well.
Yeah, that's right. All eyes certainly on Florida right now as residents there are waking up to scenes of mass devastations, So we'll bring you everything we know about that storm and the chaos that it is wrought in that state. Were also are going to take a look at some of the political news coming out. We have some new data on a rare Republican advantage in voter self identification and what that could mean for twenty twenty four. Also, take you look at Trump went on Sager's friend Andrew
Schultz's podcast, and the results are actually pretty interesting. We'll share you with you some of those clips. Mark Cuban is joining the war against Lena Khan. Bernie Sanders and AOC are diving into that as well, so we'll intra
party fight there. As Kamala continues to be silent about whether or not she would keep Lena Khan, who's the head of the FTC and has been quite aggressive about challenging corporate power, probably the best, the best bureaucrat in the Biden administration, Kamala's can continue to be silent about whether or not she would keep her on board. We're also keeping her eyes on the Middle East. BB apparently spoke with Joe Biden. We are still waiting whatever that
attack on Iran is going to be. You have Galant giving some indications of what it might look like. A Fox News reporter also sparking some backlash from the right after making sympathetic comments for Palestinian journalists. Will show you that clip, and there's some UFO stuff that Sager's going to explain to me into all of you as well.
Immaculate Constellation that's the only thing that you need to know and get to the hurricane.
So, guys, we are just getting our first look at the damage wrought by Hurricane Milton, which slammed into Florida as a Category three hurricane. It had previously been as high as category five, escalating rapidly within a single day from a tropical storm to a category five hurricane with winds so strong that actually they're contemplating adding another category category six to deal with storms of this strength fueled
by incredibly hot waters in the Gulf of Mexico. There, we can go ahead and put up some of the images that we've gathered to show you this morning, so you can just see the torrential rain and the palm trees blowing in that incredible wind. This appears to be some transformers that are blowing. This was I believe this was from some Weather Channel footage. This was I believe where Jim Canty was in a parking garage, and you can see the way that the storm surge flooded many
areas of Florida. Three million residents this morning without power, and part of what was so dangerous here too is you can see this tornado. There were many tornadoes across the state. Some people were killed by those tornadoes. This is a look at Tropicana Field and the roof was torn off. This is a crane that was blown off of the roof of a building here right outside of the Tampa Bay Times. Very very dangerous because you actually you know reporters who were there at the Times building
trying to do their job and cover this hurricane. When this crane comes down. I also have a lot of questions about why you leave a crane up when you're facing a Category three hurricane. But what we know this morning is that the flooding is incredibly substantial. We know that some unknown number of people lost their lives because they were killed by tornadoes. We know a few people were killed by tornadoes in a retirement community. We know that there are three million people who lost power as
a result of this. And in advance, there was a huge effort to evacuate as many people as possible from Florida, because if you looked at the track of this thing, which hit the west coast of Florida near Sarasota and then traveled across the state, it was a good a large portion of the state, almost the entirety of the state that was impacted in one way or another by Hurricane Milton. This also coming, as we know, on the
heels of Hurricane Helen. Some of these places were still cleaning up and hadn't recovered from Helene, and less than two weeks later hit by another brutally strong storm that was again fueled by those very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. So, you know, we're still still getting a sense of just how much devastation and damage here and what the death toel will ultimately be.
Yeah, what's really crazy is all those tornadoes that also ripped Florida at the same time. So I have the numbers here in front of me. There were one hundred and sixteen tornado warnings that were issued across the state, including far away on the different side of the coast. I'm not exactly sure why, whatever, something to do with barometric pressure, etc. But nearly one hundred and twenty five
homes were destroyed. A lot of these were areas that didn't actually expect, you know, to be hit by the hurricane or were kind of less of an impact, and so they were pretty surprised by all of that happening. But so far, I mean the damage still well a damage in Saint Petersburg and in some of these other areas. The initial stormstters that was indicated was almost like six to seven feet that came through, So I mean that's just devastating for a lot of the homes and the
other areas. It's still very early in the morning, so we don't have like a full account, but you know, people are going to have to return. There's going to have to be quite a lot of rebuilding, especially in a lot of those downtown areas. Florida authorities and others are already preparing for the influx of people coming back and seeming to prepare, so I think it's going to be a days and perhaps like a week's even years long thing, you know, to recover the area.
Yeah, there were some people who had fled from the inland devastation of Hurricane Helene to some of these areas in Florida and then had to evacuate and flee again because of this storm. It reminds me a little bit of you know, I don't know if you guys recall after Katrina hit famously in Louisiana New Orleans area, a lot of people fled to Texasca. I'm sure you remember this.
And then Hurricane Rita hits and devastates areas of Texas, and you know, they're left once again fleeing and trying to preserve their lives and their livelihoods and their possessions. Just to echo what you were saying about the storm surge and the amount of water here truly astonishing. So this is from Matthew Capucci. He says, this is insane.
Saint Petersburg. He's an atmospheric scientist, by the way, In self described stormchaser, Saint Petersburg has reported five point h nine inches of rain in one hour, more than five inches of rain in a single hour, and nine inches in three hours. He says that is actually more rare than a one thousand year rain event. So just wrap your head around the fact that we had two storms in a two weeks time period that were one in one thousand year events, or at least they previously were.
And you know, of course, you can't say exactly how much is climate change and how much is just you know, things that happened during hurricane season. But every meteorologist seems to indicate that the exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico are part of what contributed to the strength and ultimate devastation of both of these storms. And so in a lot of ways, this is sort of, you know,
the devastating new normal. You already have a situation in Florida that we've covered before, Soger, where insurance you can't in certain parts of Florida, in certain areas, you literally cannot get homeowners insurance. So Florida while it's seeing you know, huge population boom, a lot of people moving to the state because they like some of the you know, the polite policies, they like the quality of life, they like
the sunshine and the ocean, all of that. Then not only is housing of course expensive everywhere and expensive in Florida, but then you're hit with this additional massive cost for homeowners insurance if you can even get it. This is going to continue to be an escalating problem. I know some of these insurers dropped another several hundred thousand customers
from their policies. The state really has no idea how to handle this, doesn't have the money or sufficient funds in order to themselves run a home owner's insurance market for areas that are essentially uninsurable. Now, so that's sort of, you know, some of the longer term projection. Here soccer was talking about the tornadoes. Let's go and put a three up on the screen. This gives you a sense of how many tornadoes were cited and hit Florida as
a consequence of Hurricane Milton. So the National Weather Service issued about one hundred tornado warnings between noon and sea yesterday in Florida, at least twenty reports of sightings and damage. And as I mentioned before, usually with hurricanes, it's not uncommon that you have tornadoes that spin up as a result of hurricanes or storms in general. But apparently I
was reading this morning that these were exceptionally strong. Usually the tornadoes that you get associated with hurricanes are relatively weak and Pete arount quickly. These were exceptionally strong, and we know, as I said before, that they claimed some number of lives. We're not sure how many at this point. So that was part of what caused so much damage
and devastation in the state in advance of the hurricane. Yesterday, Kamala Harris took the opportunity actually to call into the Weather Channel and to explain to people what benefits were available for them, and also notably to issue a warning to would be price gouchers about taking advantage of people's desperation. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
There are federal resources you are in hide to receive without conditions, and there are resources that are available to you to deal with what you need right now to for example, get money to be able to fill your prescriptions and deal with a hotel expense and help you recover over the longer term. The other point I would
make is this, and I've done this work in my career. Sadly, there are some folks who during the moment of a crisis will be very predatory and start jacking up prices like gasoline or hotels or airlines to take advantage of
the desperation people experiencing. So to anybody who's thinking about jacket up those prices those companies they are thinking about doing it, know that we are monitoring and we're launching and if there is that kind of price gouging, that there will be a consequence for that, because it's just wrong to take advantage of people who are desperate for help, and so know that we're watching that as well.
So using natural disasters and hurricanes as for political purpose in age old age old pursue.
I was going to say, we're in it right now.
Ron DeSantis just went on television this morning because there's been this whole like beef between It was like Kamala called DeSantis and apparently he was like, I'm not going to take the call. And then actually, Kamala's advisors are very upset right now with Joe Biden because Biden was like, oh, he's.
Doing a great job.
Ron Santas De Santas and Biden apparently have been on the phone.
The Santas also compliment in Biden's yes.
Compliment Biden. He's like, well, Biden's actually the president. I mean he does have a point, he went on televiend, I mean, what does the.
Vice president really have to do anything? And we're being honest, Yeah.
All the storms I've dealt with under this administration, she has never called into Florida or offered any support. She's trying to inject herself into this because of her political campaign. I also read that Kama advisors were furious that Biden took the podium at the press briefing because it kind of I believe there was like a counter programming going on because she had had some event that she was
participating in. So, yes, the political maschinations behind the hurricane are alive, and well almost certainly we'll see it too with visits. You maybe separate visits by Kamala and Biden in to view the destruction. That's another time honored tradition for Presidents Trump as well in terms of how they
decide to respond. But you know, overall, I would just hope, especially that Florida can do what North Carolina's done now so far, North Carolina in general actually seems quite committed to being like, hey, we're temporarily going to make sure that people who were at displays can be able to vote. We're going to figure this out, set up precincts, et cetera.
Let's set have the same thing for Florida. Let's try not with us at least, you know, make it too political, and let's just make sure people in Tampas, Sarrisota, et cetera, come home, rebuild. Definitely thinking about that insurance thing. In fact, this could be a landmark moment in the history of insurance because we're going to find out just how much the devastation is, whether that state backed insurance company has
the funds and is able to meet those goals. It could require billions of bailout from the federal government, which I don't know.
It's complicated because we.
Got California and Florida, two of the most popular states in the entire Union, who now basically are unensurable from wildfires and from hurricanes. And then is the federal government's going to backstop that? Like how does it work?
Right?
You know, it's a crazy system. I don't know. I'm up two minds.
You know, they both create a ton for the economy, both Florida and California, and massive GDP and you know benefit to the nation. But it's also kind of crazy, you know, if the government's coming to bail you out every single time that there is a storm or wildfire.
Yeah, I mean Also what Florida doesn't have an income tax, They have no one, so it's like, yeah, so they don't tax their people and then they whatever the rest of the country you pick up the tab for.
Actually, in fact, to be fair, ye, the way that they make all their money is because people go to Florida for they charge these exorbitant like hotel and visitors taxes, so America is paying for it no matter what. That's how they make all their revenue. Every time they go to Disney World, you pay the state with Florida. So I don't know, well the O.
The other thing is that you know the the risk is accelerated, or you know, is higher in certain parts of the country. Certainly you think about your Florida, I think about California wildfires. Colorado is another place that suffers from wildfires. But I think one of the things we learned from Halllene is that really nowhere it is safe.
You know, if you were living in Asheville, North Carolina, western North Carolina, in Appalachia, you were not thinking that a hurricane was going to come through and destroy everything that you have ever known and loved, Like that was not on your radar whatsoever. In fact, there were articles about people who moved to Asheville specifically because they thought this was a quote unquote climate change haven where they
weren't going to be impacted. And so, you know, it's very hard to predict the impact that you're going to have from these storms and these increasingly regular extreme events. Again, these two storms back to back, both one in one thousand year occurrences that now are just happening on you know, a weekly basis, and we'll see what the rest of
hurricane season has in store for us. But you know, right now, we're just praying for the people who are there in Florida and praying for a quick recovery and that the loss of life in particular is as minimal as absolutely possible. I think I hope that most people heeded the calls to evacuate, which were quite strenuous. I know you and Ryan covered what was it, the Tampa mayor lay the first day you will die, so please leave.
So hopefully most people heeded those calls and were able to survive this farm.
Like I said on that show, Florida it's either one, number two or number three state that listens to breaking points. So to all of our people out there there you go, we love you, Thank you about you safe.
So we continue to get really interesting indications out of the twenty twenty four race. Harrenton, who really has done a good job crunching the numbers over at CNN, did a segment recently about just how close this race is, which has been kind of the steady state for a number of weeks. Now, let's take a listen to what he had to say.
How much for the state pole averages miss by all right ridge error since nineteen hundred and seventy two in the close races in those battleground states, we've been looking at three point four points, three point four points every single state, All seven of those key battleground states are within three point four points. What's the chance for an even larger err You know, we talk about the margin of error, right, So what is that ninety five percent
confidence interval? What is that true margin of error? Five percent of errors in state polling averages are off by more off by more than nine point four points.
These battleground states are well within that.
I want you to remember this number because the bottom line is this race is going to be too close to call almost certainly all the way till election day. It's definitely going to be within this interval, and it's most likely going to be within this interval. So the bottom line is the state polling averages tell us. What it tells us is it's just a race that is too close to call.
I mean It makes a lot of Sun Soccer. When you look at the Trump era, you have twenty sixteen, extremely close election, twenty eighteen midterms, very close election, twenty twenty, extremely closed election twenty twenty two. You know, Democrats did what that was a weird one because you add Democrats doing really well in certain states and then Republican surging
in Florida and New York in particular. Nate Cohne over the New York Times, his theory of the case is basically that the election is shaping up to look a lot like the twenty twenty two midterms. That would have huge implications also for the popular vote advantage in electoral college advantage that the Republicans have. It would actually narrow that gap. But the bottom line is that if the polls are off three points in one way, you get
a Trump landslide in terms of the electoral college. If they're off three points the other way, you get a Kamala landslide in the electoral college. All those things are on the table. And in spite of all of the wild twists and turns that we have seen throughout this campaign, since Kamala came in and kind of rose to the position that she's at right now, it has basically been stable.
Yeah, exactly, and that's kind of the fascinating part.
In fact, this morning I was reading a lot of Democratic activists who were talking to Axios about their consternation that they've thrown almost three hundred million dollars of advertising into the Blue Wall states so far with the reserved another three hundred million coming even just in the state of Pennsylvania, and they have seen basically no movement whatsoever.
So the dollar figure, like I said previously, comparing it to Coca Cola, we know that if it wasn't there, it would have an impact, But we do know that its presence, we're not really sure what that impact is. Not to build on this theory because this is a little bit complicated, but everybody stick with us. Let's put the next one, please up on the screen. From the Wall Street Journal, more Americans identify as Republican than Democrat. Now,
as they say, here's what that means for the election. Now, this could mean could mean that there would be a narrower Trump Trump Harris margin in the popular vote, but does not necessarily mean that Trump will win the electoral college.
This is complicated, but just stick with us.
The reason why is that just because more Americans identify as Republican, if Trump wins Florida by thirteen points, which was the New York Times has as opposed to the three points that he won back in twenty twenty, it doesn't make all that much of a difference in the electoral cause it was going read anyway, right, It's going right anyway, and you win the electoral votes no matter what.
But let's say that the margin or for Harris drops in Texas, or sorry, goes up in Texas, goes down in Florida, all these other places like for example, Trump is doing rallies in Coachella in California, He's doing a rally in Madison Square Garden, which is twenty eight days to election day.
I mean, it doesn't make a whole lot of electoral sense.
But what we know from both of those things is that you're watching the margins of victory for Republicans go up in traditionally blue states and.
Probably go up even more in the Sunbelt.
The problem that they accurately point out is that in twenty twenty two, even though Republican identification was very very high, and in fact beat Democrats on the generic ballot, it's that all of the swing voters broke so hard for the Democrats that was able to put the Democratic candidates up over the margin of victory. So just because Republicans have a major ballot advantage here does not mean that
they will win again. I understand that this is counterintuitive, but the thing is is that more Americans identifying as Republican actually just means there are less swing voters.
So in some ways that's good.
It means that you have people who are explicitly like parts and are they're going to come out and they're going to vote for you, But it will not take you across the finish line. You still need to win the swing voters, and if the swing voters break in the same way they did in twenty twenty two, you will lose every single one of the swing states.
I mean, the TLDR of this is that the electoral college is really stupid, because it makes no sense that if you win a bunch more voters in Florida or California or in New York that it literally does not matter at all. But that's the reality. I mean, all indications are that Republicans have improved their position in New York,
but Democrats are still going to win New York. So yeah, that helps reduce your popular vote totals, it does not matter at all in terms of the electoral out That's a stupid situation, like it should not be the case that what voters think in New York matter, like doesn't matter at all versus what voters think in Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania in particular. But that's a system that
we have. So this, again is what Nate Cone has been writing about over at the New York Times, and I encourage you to go read because it's a very
interesting analysis. There's something else that ties into this that I'll do my best to explain, but basically, the idea is that Trump is picking up a lot of voters in those two states, in particular, Florida and New York, so that means that he is narrowing That helps to narrow that electoral college edge, which means that when you're seeing these national polls that have Kamala Harris up three points or even up two points, that might be sufficient
to get her over the top, whereas previously Democrats needed to win by a closer to certainly three to four points in order to be able to win the electoral college vote. So in any case, you know, it was interesting reading about this Republican self identification. One of the things that they find in terms of driving some of these movements is just like who's the party that holds the White House and how do people feel about that person.
So if you have you know, George b. Bush, for example, after nine to eleven, he has this huge surgeon popularity and that was the last time that you even had for a brief period Republicans outpacing Democrats in terms of how people describe themselves because he was very popular and he was a Republican. Now, obviously you have Joe Biden in the White House. He is very unpopular. So that
has caused democratic self identification to take a hit. To your point, Soccer, I mean, it certainly is something that Republicans will be happy about. It gives them a little bit of a leg up and an edge going into this election. But in twenty twenty two, Democrats won independence sufficiently to overcome that edge that Republicans had at that time. So it's an interesting note, but it is not by any means determinative of what the outcome may actually be.
Let's go and put this next piece up on the screen. This is the late New York Times poll which finds that Kamala Harris has taken a narrow three point lead in the national popular vote forty nine forty six. The same poll last time around had the two of them tied I believe at forty seven percent if memory serves, this is the first time in this particular poll that Kamala Harris has actually led Trump since July when Biden dropped out of the race. So certainly she'll be happy
with that outcome from the New York Times. Has just taken very seriously, whether it deserves all of the like, you know, this is one of the ones that everybody stops and takes note of when these polls come out. She has short up her support, they say, among older voters,
has begun making inroads among Republicans. Nine percent say they plan to support her, up slightly from five percent last month, and she appears to have closed the gap on the question of change, a critical factor, they write, in an election where voters have repeatedly told pollsters they believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction in that one, because she did herself no favors this week on that question of who would be the change candidate when she
could not literally name a single thing that she would do different than Joe Biden, which is like, how do you not know how to answer this question? At this point, all of the polling shows that it is important to voters that she separate herself from Joe Biden. But what I took note of here is, you know, this kind of dovetails with idea that more people are self identifying as Republicans. This helps to explain their Liz Cheney strategy. You know, this is not a strategy that I would
personally go forward with. I think they should be emphasizing more of their economic positions. I think they should be doing more work to close that gap with Trump on the economy and on inflation, in particular in those industrial
Midwestern states. But they believe that there is a sufficient majority anti Trump coalition that the more they lean into like oh my god, Dick Cheney and Liz Cheney endorsed us, and the less they talk about hard policy proposals that could be controversial among some Republican voters, the better off they'll be that's their theory is basically like, we're going to put back together the pro Joe Biden, anti Trump coalition, and we believe, based on the electoral results in eighteen
and twenty and twenty two that that's enough to get us over the top. And you know, they'll look at this and say, oh, see it's working. Now we've got nine percent of Republicans supporting us instead of five percent.
Maybe that's an awful lot.
I mean, these polls are only one thousand people, you know, that are even the sample size.
So how many is that? Like ninety?
It's like, are you really going to base your political theory based on that?
I don't know.
I mean, this is all the problem with a lot of cross tab diving is these samples are not that big. And by the way, that's actually quite big for a over national poll and where they do live caller, but statistical sampling and all that. The deeper that you try and go, it's very difficult. That's why you should try to look at averages and ultimately the actual outcome on election day will tell us a lot more. I did
see this morning I possible indication from Reuters. They say that Kamala Harris is quote erased Republican Trump advantage in the vast middle of American society, suburban residents and middle income households. That's basically who they're trying to go after with that Republican theory.
Again, they're going after those Nikki Hayley voter.
Here's the reason, the main one that I just don't think that that is correct is that, yes, those Republicans and all that may be disgusted with Trump, but when you're also not acting as a change agent, which we're about to get to in her answer on the view, that's where I think it's going to be really difficult. Like I also saw Crystal you know, remember that JD Van's answer about the election, and we thought it was
going to be everywhere. So it turns out that those ads Dave Wigel pointed this out, those ads don't have a lot of money behind them.
Yeah, Internet, they're just on Twitter.
They're not actually like the major ones that are playing in the battleground states. So I can tell you, like I said, I was in Pennsylvania, every anti Trump ad was just about abortion, and that I mean, clearly that's something.
But abortion's not going to be enough.
We talked to Logan Phillips just to carry you across because not aspressions in twenty twenty two. I think the economy and feeling like you're going to do something different is really important. And that answer that she gave on the view, I don't think that that. I think the fact that the Trump campaign is now planning on blasting that everywhere that does tell you actually quite a bit. Why don't we take a listen. I know Ryan and Emiley brought some of these yesterday, but let's relive it.
What do you think would be the biggest specific difference between your presidency and a Biden see a Biden presidency. Well, we're obviously two different people, and we have a lot of shared life experiences, for example, the way we feel about our family and our parents and so on. But we're also different people, and I will bring those sensibilities to how I lead by part. Listen, I plan on having a Republican in my cabinet.
You got a list Yeah, right, you have to.
What's the difference between Joe Biden and me? Well, that will be.
One of the differences.
I'm going to have a Republican in my.
Cabinet because I don't.
I don't feel burdened, but letting pride get in the way of a good idea, yeah.
Right, right, So that exactly is the dynamic that we're talking about here. So let mean, look, we'll see, we got twenty seven more days. We'll find out on election day whether she's correct, If this turns out to be
the right theory, I don't know. I give up because it's like just saying, oh, Liz Cheney is going to be my secretary of Defense, which you know, between the Iran comments about our greatest adversary, the Liz Cheney thing, and now seeing Republican in my cabinet, I think we all know who that person is going to be, or at least it's going to be somewhere there in the cabinet, and then we combine it with I actually wouldn't change
anything from the Biden administration except bringing in somebody who is way worse on national policy.
If that's enough. I honestly, I don't really know what to say.
But it's not even true that Biden doesn't have Republicans in his government. I mean, Ray is a Republican, right, aren't there other people anything?
What does the term mean at this point.
It's so here's here's what I would say. I'm inclined to agree with you that they are really screwing up right now, like they should be leaning into economics because my view is people who are going to vote for democracy and part of the anti DRUP like they already know where they stand. That's why they're not running ads about JD Vance's answer, because it's like, yeah, those people are already locked in, right and now we just got
to turn them out. And they do have massive funds in terms of their you know, overall operation turnout operations. She raised a billion dollars we just learned as of yesterday in less than three months time. Like that is unheard of, ungodly amounts of money that she's been able to raise. So they're gonna have plenty of money for the field operation, whatever they want to do down the
stretch ads, et cetera, et cetera. The only thing is like I just I just a very humble at this point about what is actually going to work, because in twenty twenty two, they were doing the same, like let's just talk about democracy and extremism and not offer literally
anything on economics. In twenty twenty Joe Biden did not run on a single economic position, to the best of my recollection, even though we ended up, you know, having a pretty good domestic economic agenda, but did not run on really any of that in terms of the general election. And it worked out. You know, in twenty twenty two, I really thought I was I thought, like, the red wave is coming. People are angry about inflation, y'all aren't talking about it. You know, there's people think you're on
the wrong track, et cetera, et cetera. Joe Biden is already pretty unpopular, and I was wrong. So maybe they're right. Maybe it's enough. Maybe just getting together the old like anti Trump band again. Maybe they're correct that there just is an anti Trump majority, and the less that you promise on policy, the less divisive that you are, And if you just lean into that like generic Democrat position, maybe it's sufficient. I genuinely do not know.
Oh, I agree with you.
That's my point is I'm like, I really hope this isn't correct, but I fear that it is. It might shaybe let's put this on the screen. Well, actually, at the very least this time we're going to get a real test, because what we have here from Axios is that Republicans are again planning to spend heavily to promote this clip of saying that there's not a thing that she would do differently. I saw Jade vanc and Trump
are now playing that clip actually at their rallies. Obviously, people go into a Trump rally are already voting for Republican. But the point is is that they see that as very beneficial to them.
There is a significant.
Amount of dollars behind. We need an actual change in the White House. One of the areas that she's always struggled the most with is differentiating herself from Biden. The only thing she can really come up with is, I
would have a Republican in my cabinet. I would also know maybe part of this is media, because Christal, what you and I know is that even if there isn't a necessarily major constituency for this stuff, there's nobody who loves it more than Morning Joe or like MSNBC's with Nicole Wallace, this idea of a Republican in the cabinet, So it could be to get more favorable media attention.
The other thing is maybe it's just what she believes. She doesn't want to do anyth different.
She does not believe anything. Yeah, I mean, and that's part of why my theory of why she does so poorly in these interviews, and her aids were basically right, like she shouldn't have done these from just pure tactical perspective, just don't do the interview. I send him walls down. He does a fantastic job in these interview situations. But yeah, they were correct about the basement strategy. Not that I'm
saying it's a good thing for democracy. It's not, but in terms of tactical political decision making, they were probably right about that. But it's just because it's a lot harder to nail an interview like this when you don't believe anything, because you just have to memorize every answer versus asking yourself like, oh, well, what do I actually think about that? Let me use my brain to articulate it. It's like, oh, what am I supposed to say to this?
What a my aids tell me the right answer is here. And then this was a classic Kabala moment in that it's a totally foreseeable question, Like totally foreseeable question it should be a lip. She should be hoping to get that question so that she can knock it out of the park of the ways in which she's going to be different from Joe Biden, like that would only serve her. And yet on this very predictable soft ball question she
completely whiffs. So you know, this is what happens when she I don't know if the preparation fails her or brain fails her in terms of trying to recall what our advisors want her to say in that moment, because yeah, it's really difficult to try to memorize a thousand different answers on things when you yourself don't really have any
core beliefs to draw in and go back to. Like she doesn't have the ability to say, oh, well, how would I actually be different from Joe Biden, Because to be honest with you, if she was really answering that question truthfully, it'd be like, oh, I'm probably going to be more receptive to like the crypto bros. And you know, maybe get rid of Gary Gensler and Lena Khan and be more friendly to Silicon Valley to Wall Street, which I guess, as we'll get to you later in the show.
The Mark Cubans of the world and others would be happy about, but may not be the best general election message.
That's a good point.
I mean, look, I think the part of the issue is I feel like in previous elections we had a lot more either events or ten pole news. So twenty twenty, obviously there was COVID, and that was just such a crazy environment that we were covering. Not only the attempts at interview or sorry rallies, but we had the traditional debates. Trump had COVID, that was all happening. Then we had
the whole mail in balloting thing. Had this just election, especially since Kamla got picked, just feels remarkably stable to me. And I know that's a weird thing to say, but the test case and the theories put forth by both of these candidates have been effectively locked in stone and absent. You know, a quote unquote October surprise of a genuine war in Lebanon and Iran some you know, obviously the hurricane that just happened.
It's devastating.
Hopefully we don't see any major fallout or anything from that, hoping it doesn't change anything.
But wait, you know, we don't yet know. But between those like I don't see anything yet.
Of course, look the Comy letter came when October twenty third, I want to say, so there's still plenty of time that something could significantly change. In fact, I read a insane statistic. I think I talked about this with you last time. In the twenty sixteen election, nine percent of the electorate did not make up their minds until a week before the election.
That is crazy to me.
We just do I just if we have that electorate anymore.
You might be right, but I'm like, wow, like not knowing who you're going to vote for it nine days before election day and just be like okay, yeah, I mean I agree, it's probably less.
It may not be nine, but let's say it's four. I mean four is enough. You could swing the entire thing.
So there are a lot of people out there that think that way.
The other thing is though, that we just we vote differently than we did in twenty sixteen. I mean early voting and mail in voting, you know, obviously spiked massively during the pandemic, and it's not going to be as high as the levels in twenty twenty. But it's not going back to twenty sixteen either, so you'd almost need more of like a September surprise than an October surprise.
And we've had a lot of surprises in thrace so far, and after Joe Biden is out, you know, everything that's happened since you know, maybe the polls take one point this way or one point that way, but overall it is just really stable and the steady like stable place it is is common well, hovering with like a maybe about a three point lead in the popular vote, which is like translates into every swing state effectively being tied and within the margin of error. So you know, it's
really a question of are the polls accurate? Are they you know, are they missing some dynamic. That's the other thing that Nate Cone has been talking about is some of the pollsters they're very worried about understating Republican support and Trump support again, right, because they really blew it. You know, they're they famously blew it in twenty sixteen, but they actually were more wrong in twenty twenty. Yeah,
that's correct, they were more off. It's just that Joe Biden still had enough of an edge to win, so they didn't get quite as much backlash as twenty sixteen, but they were actually more wrong in twenty twenty and so some of the pollsters who've been burned by that have adopted this practice, which was previously seen as like ad polling practice, where they weight the voter sample based on how people self report who they voted for last time.
People are not reliable actually even about who they voted for in the last election. And without getting into the technical details of this, the impact of using that method as for waiting the electorate is that you're likely to overstate the amount of support for the last loser of the election. But they feel like, okay, but we've gotten it so wrong so many times, we need to use
Trump's numbers so that we don't have a similar miss again. Now, if you look at the polsters who were doing that versus the polsters who are not doing that, and by the way, the New York Times, where Nate con Is is one of the polsters that is not doing that, the results in most cases are not all that much different.
But the subtle difference is that the polsters who are using that you know, waiting based on self identification method, their polls are sort of mirroring what happened in twenty twenty, and using that method is likely to get you to basically mirror the last results of the last election, and the New York Times, Poles and other ones that aren't using that method, they're seeing warshifts that look more like
the twenty twenty two midterm elections. That's why you end up with the New York Times poll of Florida being a thirteen point lead for Donald Trump, where other polls have shown it actually quite close, being like three points even two points, four points more in the single digits versus thirteen points. So Nate's point is basically like, you know, I understand, I'm sympathetic to why polsters are doing this, but if you are using this method, you may be
missing some shift that has happened post twenty twenty. And I don't think any of us would be surprised, especially given what we saw on the twenty twenty two midterms and how that was such a like different election. In terms of some places, the red wave did actually materialize, but in a lot of key swings states it did not. Any other direction, the map in the country looks a lot different than it did pre pandemic, So in any case, that's something else to watch out for. Let's go and
put this next piece up on the screen. This is a report out of Pennsylvania, which it really is kind of the ballgame. Pennsylvania really is kind of the ballgame. Whichever two of these two candidates wins Pennsylvania is very likely to be the next president in the United States, and they are going all in the head. The beginning paragraph here in this article sets when Vice President Kamala Harris rolled out her economic agenda. She went to Pittsburgh
when she unveiled her running mate. She went to Philly. When she had to pick a place for Obama's first ball rally, it was back to Pittsburgh. Trump has earmarked the greatest share of his advertising budget for Pennsylvania's held more rallies in the state than in any other battleground since Miss Harris joined the race, including two on Wednesday, three in the last week. And they talk about why Pennsylvania is so compelling. It's sort of like a microcosm
of all of America. They write. It's home to urban centers like Philly. Of course, large population of black voters who Dems need to mobilize, has fast growing, highly educated mostly white suburbs outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where Republicans
have been bleeding support in the Trump years. There are struggling industrial towns where Trump needs to maximize the vote, smaller cities that are actually booming with Latino immigrants where Harris wants to make gains, And there's a significant, although shrinking rural population. White voters without college degrees who make up mister Trump's base, still account for roughly half the vote.
And if you look at Pennsylvania politically, Democrats did very well there in twenty twenty two, in part because Republicans had sort of like uniquely poor candidates in doctor Oz and what's the other dud's name Haran for governor called Lostria Mastriano, who was really really out there. And so Democrats did well at the Senate and the guminatorial level. But if you look at the legislature, it's the only state in the country where Democrats have one chamber and
Republicans have the other. And the margin in the state's lower chamber is a single seat. That tells you just how closely Pennsylvania is divided is divided, and why this is such a dogfight between them.
And the dollars show that dollars are the only place where there is not as much of a disparity between the Democrats and the Republicans. You have one hundred and eighty million being spent so far by the Democrats, one hundred and seventy million by the Republicans. In fact, they look at Pennsylvania. I think part of the reason too is not only is that Pennsylvania is the tipping point state, but the general theory that both of the campaigns seem to have is that a polling error is going to
miss in either way. And so the theory behind that means that it would be very unlikely to let's say, win Pennsylvania and not also win Wisconsin, yeah, or Michigan, right, although I guess to be fair, in twenty sixteen, Trump only won Michigan by like ten thousand votes. I did look at his victory margin or lost margin in twenty twenty. It's eight five hundred and fifty five votes in the
state of Pennsylvania. That's incredibly close after almost six million, or more than six million votes that were in the election.
So what that means, you know, for this is that it really is just.
Get down to turn out in the constituencies that you can and then just kind of hope and pray for those swing voters to come out. The point about Pennsylvania being America is very important. They have those industrial steel towns. They have a long legacy of you know, half the half of the state. It's gigantic, as more in common with the industrial Midwest than it does with the East coast. The east coast side has a lot of more economic dynamism.
You've got the you know, the Pennsylvania mainline suburbs has quite a bit of wealth that is there. Pennsylvania or Philadelphia itself has got its own like constituencies. You've got black population, Hispanic population as well. We saw previously that we played here on the show about how the poor areas of Philadelphia are actually swinging to Trump the biggest. We don't know if that's an urban only phenomenon, if it also translates.
To poorer, more rural areas in the state.
So the point is that it's changing a lot, and obviously it's very up for grabs. Doctor Oz lost the state by almost six points back in twenty twenty two, so that could be an indicator. Also made an indicator to me about the strength of abortion. John Fetterman, if you remember that time, it barely even you know, put a comp Yeah, he.
Had just had that stroke. It was like basically remember the debate performance.
It was crazy, right, yeah, I mean it's only recently these like regained his power of speech. But my point is that, you know, Fetterman, I thought he was going to lose. To this day, I still don't really get it how anybody voted for him back in twenty twenty two, But he won, not just by a little he won by a lot, like six points in a major swing state. So that was the power of abortion at that time.
Shapiro beat Mastriano by thirteen points. So the question about the whole polling thing and the tightness is if twenty twenty is the benchmark for what they're pulling against, I don't know. To me, the state seems to have shifted quite a bit in that time. At the same time, Trump is such a unique figure that he's so much better and more appealing to Republican voters or even swing voters than an Oz or a Mastriano or even a
Dave McCormick. If you look at how much more he's running ahead of him, that maybe he's the only guy left in America who could still win of this state of Pennsylvania as a Republican. So it's complicated, you know, in terms of how we look at it, but the inside battle for it and the likelihood of it being
the tipping point state is so high. I was just looking again, it's almost like thirty or forty percent or whatever for the Nate Silver forecast of whoever wins it, and just in general, if we think about it like that will be the main one to watch on election night. We're lucky who were on East coast time, so is Pennsylvania. We can see it was called at roughly two am
on twenty sixteen election night. If it is as close as again as it was in twenty twenty, it could take a while, especially with mail in ballots, although I do believe the mail in balloting. You know, things have changed in the last couple of years for processing, it's no longer COVID and all of that.
Yeah, But basically take brace for a long election.
They still, I believe, have law on the books that says you can't even begin processing those mail in ballots until election day. That means even just like smoothing out the envelopes and preparing them to be fed into the machine,
which means that it's going to take longer. And it also means that just like last time around, Remember we talked about that quote unquote red mirage because a lot of the Republican in person votes on that day and in smaller counties where they're able to count things more quickly, those came in first, and that's what helped Trump to spin his tales about how the election was stolen and you know, Philadelphia blah blah blah, yeah, stop the count
we are likely to see. It may not be as dramatic an effect as last In fact, I don't think it will be as dramatic an effect as last time, but it will still be something to watch more on election day, that is likely, those Republican in person, small county votes are likely to come in more quickly than the big urban areas or even the big suburban areas where Democrats are stronger. The other thing to point out about Pennsylvania is Trump just had his giant rally in Butler,
Pennsylvania with Elon Musk. We're turning to the site of that assassination attempt on his life. And that's another like X factor in all of this. Whether that helped to drive local enthusiasm for Trump the rally with Elin, I don't know what the final numbers were, but I mean it was huge. There were a lot of people there,
obviously a lot of energy around that. New York Times interviewed some local supporters who were really energized and inspired by his reaction in that moment and decided, you know, not only am I going to vote for I'm going to volunteer, I'm going to be a precinct captain or whatever. So that is possible, possible to see that impact as well. But just to give you a sense of just how close these are the status in terms of the polls, we can put up the latest RCP average. Now RCP
it's not a model. It just literally takes in every pole, whether it's a good pollster or a bad pollster or an in between polster, whatever their record is, they just feed them in to the average. But based on their average of every single pole that's out there, the partisan ones, on the nonpartisan ones, they've got Trump at point two of a lead over Kamala Harris. In other words, it could not possibly be closer. And Tiger, I know you've spent some time in the state.
Well just for a weekend.
Yeah, but you were you and are you still getting like detoxing from.
All the play I'm I'm not lying.
Like my in lawns, they like to watch actual cable television and like sitting there being bombarded with those ads is maddening, especially I think we're watching the Phillies game. Every single commercial break is just it's literally Trump at Comma, at Dave McCormick, ad, Bob Casey, ad, then whoever the congressional candidate is.
I'm like, I'm gonna lose my goddamn mind. It was the first time.
I'm like, I'm happy I don't live in a swing state because I don't think I could handle this. Because even if you don't want to engage with it and you don't watch terrestrial TV, it's on the radio.
The yard signs are everywhere. I will say they do. They just very cypically engage people. I'll give them that.
Like when you ride along the highway or anywhere here in Virginia's I wouldn't say it's as common, but there, I mean every house if whoever they're supporting, they're there. There does seem to be a lot of neighborliness, so that's good, you know, people respect each other. But it was fascinating for me to see it like in action of what it really looks like in the hardcore wing state.
For you, right before in election, the ads are just everywhere, and also, like I said, the choice of those ads for Trump every ad immigration, immigration, immigration, immigration, migrant immigration. And then there were some Dave McCormick ads which tried to do that thing where he's like Bob Casey's the real radical on abortion, but from Bob Casey and from Kamala, it.
Was abortion all day long.
It was all ro versus Wade for their paid advertising. I mean possibly because I was in literally in the suburbs, so maybe that's why the targeting was there, But it seemed to me like that I took note of the fact that it was so strong, so unified in that message from both of those candidates, from the Senate candidates as well as the presidential candidates, that clearly they've got a lot of internals this is the main thing to go.
All in on. Very interesting, it makes sense, yeah, makes sense.
Foreign President Donald Trump joined the Flag Podcasts with my friend Andrew Schultz and his entire crew over there, and the results were actually incredible.
Before we get into a crystal life.
Even though I've been discussing it, the way that they handled this was amazing, And really what it came down to is they didn't have the look.
In general, as people know, I advocate dressing up, treating the president, etc. But it's a comedy.
Podcast, so in general, their theory of going into it was let's just treat him like a normal guest.
And by doing that.
There was actually a lot that came out of it, both in the way that Trump obviously was felt very comfortable and all that, but it also led to some real world moments where I'm not sure Trump has ever experienced that from an interviewer. Actually, the most noteworthy moment to me came at the very end where Andrew was challenging and even interrupting Trump and Trump let him, which was even the crazier part about the phrase make America great again.
So let's go ahead and let's take a listen to that.
Or mega make America great again. I'm gonna make this country great again. It's not a great country right now. It's loaded up. Always a great country, it's a great see that's always a great okay, But I say it has the potential, and it was a great country. I think now there's so much hatred and there's so much dissension. I think when you have people that can't walk down Fifth Avenue, when you have people that can't walk down the street, it ceases to be.
You can always be better, We can always be better.
Yeah, but you can't blindfold yourself to say I'm honest about it.
But to me, I'm really proud of America.
Because I think that I don't I think I can be the best version of myself here. You know, I think that Donald Trump can only happen in America. Your life, what has happened to you? This is an American story.
I mean, I thought that was interesting. I have not I'm shocked Trump let him talk. Actually, it shows that Trump likes him.
Having interviewed Trump in the past, he can be very difficult to interrupt in that regard, but it was it was an interesting moment to me, both in the challenge. Also, look, no surprise, Trump's not going out and flagrant out of the goodness of his own heart. He's doing it to try and reach the people who watched comedy podcasts, which is predominantly young men between the age of like eighteen to thirty five, and so I was like, huh, that is I'd be curious. Look, obviously, I'm in politics all
day long. If this is your maybe not first exposure, but maybe your first like long form exposure, Trump, I don't really know what to take away from that.
I thought I thought it was interesting.
Yeah, they definitely think that there's an opportunity to move some young men their way and that there's an opening there and that podcast like this helped to serve that purpose. And this has been an integral part of their strategy. We saw Kamala Harris do like the Call Her Daddy podcast as well, so you know they also have their own podcast strategy. But I think Trump campaign, I think it's fair to say, has lead more into a podcast strategy this election. So it'll be interesting to see what
the results are. But yeah, to go back to your point about like I liked the I mean, Andrew Schultz is not a journalist. He's not going to us like he didn't try to pose. It's like, oh, I'm going to do a bunch of tough followups or whatever. I'm just gonna treat you the way that I would treat any normal guests. And by the way, I'm gonna laugh in your face and mock you effectively to your face. We should watch that when it's called for, and I
kind of liked the vibe of that. I think we should normalize laughing and mocking polaticives in her face is more often.
Let's take a listen. This was on the basically truthful comment.
They can say what they want. I have a hard time doing it to them because I'm basic, you know, I'm basically a truthful person. But frankly, fly, she's given me so much ammunition I don't really have to She's a radical left lunatic who will destroy our nation. Other than that, but she will destroy our nation.
That was great. You could see he just couldn't keep it together. You could also see Akash in the frame there just trying to.
Trying to feel his eyes because he also was laughing at him.
But I mean, yeah, I thought that was good.
They genuinely just treated him like you would treat anybody else. He also, it was clear was like picking up on it. He started doing his bit about the weave.
Uh.
This is perhaps the biggest insight into Trump's mind because what he's picking up on is there have been previous leaks and criticisms of Trump, not even advisors, but also other politicians who are like, hey, he's rambling and he doesn't come to the point. He takes that very much to heart because to him, he calls it the weave, and he believes it's part of his superpower. So he explained this on flagrant Let's take a.
Lesson, you know, and I do a thing full the weave. And there were those that are fair that say this guy is so genius, and then others would say, oh, he rambled.
I don't ramble.
What you do is you weave things, and you do it. You have to have certain things. You need an extraordinary memory because you have to come back to where you started. The weave is only good that you could go all the way over here and so far here or there, and I can come back to exactly where I started. Now, someday when you don't come back to where you started.
But the weave is the way when you're telling, like a story, I was telling the story at a rally the other day in front of thousands of people, and I started off, and then something in the story I actually mentioned air Force one. It was air Force one, will say, so I mentioned air Force one, and then I said, how I got one point six billion dollars off the price of air Force one. So but then you have to come back to the story, where was air Force one taken?
I do a weave. I call it the weave. There you go, call it to me. From Trump's own break, there was.
A few things to say about that. First of all, that feels to me like that New York Times analysis of how he's gotten more rambly and more like disjointed and angrier and all these things like that.
He oh of course read that.
As much as he loves to hate you New York Times, he's always been sort of like obsessed with what these you know, prestigious mainstream outlets have to say. So that's one thing. The other thing is, my sixteen year old told me soccer that it's a thing on TikTok where they say that Trump talks kind of like he's like a sixteen year old girl. So with the basically truthful thing like being like, yeah, I'm like a basically truthful person.
I had not thought about that either. I don't spend a lot of time with sixteen year old girls, but it does make sense. He certainly doesn't make sense basically a.
Truthful person, and like Kamala Harris is just she's mean and nasty, and it's like, wow, that actually kind of fits fit.
I mean, one of Trump's great strengths is he speaks in incredibly simple sentences.
I saw. I remember back in twenty sixteen. People would criticize.
Him for that though, like Trump speaks at a third grade reading level or whatever, and I was like, well, you know, you should look at the average reading level of America, because that's usually a good idea.
I do think it's fair to say that his communication is not as Sharpert Chris. But if you go back and listen to him in twenty sixteen, especially if you compare his debate performance versus Hillary Clinton in comparison to his matchup versus Kamala Harris, he was way more crisp to the point able to more effectively do the weave, to stay on topic, et cetera, versus you know, in the Kamala Harris matchup, he was easily thrown off course, distracted from the main points he was supposed to hit.
In fact, at the very end of the debate, you saw it sort of like click, oh shit, I was supposed to say that she's just like Joe Biden. I was supposed to hit her on these things. Let me just get it in here, you know, before the buzzer. So I do think it's fair to say that he is not as crisp as he was in twenty sixteen, that he's not as able to pull off the weave as he once was.
Had some moments there, well, I don't know, you weren't there for the snake, which I had to sit through many times, used to memory. But he had a moment where he talked about nicknames, which is really funny because he was like, you have to make the nickname pew like actually hit. But he acknowledges some of his best nicknames were from twenty sixteen.
Yeah, in the primary.
He has not had a nickname hit really for a while.
Yeah, it's like, Comrade Kamala, He's like, you know, it's hard to say, it's difficult.
Which no one even understood.
Well, he only he hasn't really said that one. That one was more via text. He's a few times as he but I mean, clearly isn't isn't caught on Tim, It's okay, it doesn't.
It doesn't hit, it doesn't. Lion Ted was just so good.
I can barely describe it to people about how much it hit at that time.
Even Little Marco.
Little Marco, yeah, like legendary.
He tried the same. Sleepy Joe. I mean it was good, but I don't know for some reason it didn't. It didn't quite hit as well. But this this time around, he doesn't seem to be there. He even said he's like, well, some of my best nick names, I can't talk about them anymore because they're all my friends.
Now that's funny.
It was good.
I think Sleepy Joe. I mean it was. It was good in one sense because it's sort of like Landon was accurate. Like the reason Crooked Hillary was so devastating is because people are like, she's correct, she like it. Yeah, literally, And I think Sleepy Joe, like it just doesn't have the same uh like tuoperative energy, Like it's not as vicious as crooked it. It doesn't bite. Just someone's sleepy. They're not like a threat. They're not scary, they're just kind
of like, Okay, they're a little drowsy, you know. So I don't know that it especially an election where people are like, all right, it's been so chaotic, could we just have maybe a little bit of sleepy Joe, Like, let's just have a little sleepy time and be a little calm. I think that's part of why it didn't work. But in this election, he really hasn't had any any w's on the nickname front. And yeah, back in twenty sixteen,
that was that was the main skill. There was one other clip that I found funny from this podcast that we didn't pull, but answer was like, so, so, what's what happened with Mike pens caught up with Mike Pence lately?
Yeah, with Mike Pence. Well, Mike, he's a nice man, but you know, he didn't do what he said to you what he should have done.
And the column when people have already taken that part and spliced it into at least an internet ad where they have that clip and then they flashed to like January sixth, and you know, people running around the Capitol calling for him to be hung, et cetera. Et cetera.
So I did think that that was like I think what he did well Andrew Schultz in this podcast is you didn't try to be something other than what he is, and yet he did still did some things that were that were effective that you know, didn't take Trump too seriously, that did treat him just like he was another person who was going to come on the podcast that they were going to screw around with. And you know, I think that was that was a wise and smart approach,
and it's going to we're going to have a whole this. Obviously, politicians in the past, they've gone on podcasts. They you know, even in the Obama era he was doing like interviews with YouTubers and.
Whatever Marmarage's podcasts, remember that.
But I do feel like this is kind of a breakout cycle in terms of podcasts being central to a strategy, because you've had so many cord cutters young Like, you're not going to reach young people going on any of the cable news shows or going on even with a Stephen c there, which still reaches a large audience, but not a young audience. So the best you would get on that is some kind of a viral moment that
gets clipped up and put on TikTok. So I do feel like this is the first election where the choosing these podcasts to target some demographic group, whethers young men or young women, where that has really become a central part of both campaign strategies. But certainly the Trump campaign has leaned into it more than the Hairs camp.
I was just reading watching post analysis this morning about how central the young male thesis is to the Trump campaign, how not only is the campaign rung by dudes, but very much is like a dude's rock campaign. By the way, I still think that is a very effective strategy. As I've said before, if you look at the main gains for Trump amongst racial minority groups, it's all within men.
If anything, there's been more of a polarization. Young men are now more right wing than any previous younger generation, especially in the spread.
With young women.
So I've always said, I'm like, if you want the real tiracial coalition, it's just dudes.
That's what you should be able to run on.
I don't think it's necessarily good social sociologically, but electorally it could work. So clearly they think that that can work. Also with Kamala. I mean, I don't want to race like she did go on Call Her Daddy. I've seen a lot of people be like, oh, it didn't even get that many of views guys like Call Her Daddy's not video first podcast like it was a a It's an audio podcast that predominantly is listened to and or downloaded too. I'd be willing to bet it was in
the millions. I mean the average download that they're getting is like five million a week or something.
That's crazy. It's the second largest podcast in the freaking world.
So what you I'm sure predominantly young women.
It's almost all young women. So it's like that.
And apparently like Bill Crystal, who was did you see that?
Wait? What is this?
There is some political playbook or some some piece about the Call Her Daddy thing that they had to disclose, like, oh, Bill Crystal's a.
Founding member of the Daddy Gang. Oh my god, so wo I didn't even know.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The last thing that I'll say about about this, just to make like trying to make a substance to political point here, is that the polling pretty consistently shows that Kamala is leading. When you talk about the voters who show up every election. She's leading among those, like I'm there in the midterms, I'm there for the special elections, I'm there certainly for every presidential election, I'm
there for the problem. Like that voter Kamala Harris is leading with the less frequent voters is where Trump has an edge. And certainly the like young male demographic would be a classic like less frequent voter type of demographic, and that's what they're really counting on, is to to turn out those less frequent voters UH to come and
support Donald Trump. So time will tell. I mean, certainly past indications when Trump is on the ballot, it usually leads to very high turnout, so you know, maybe that
works out for him. On the other hand, if you're going to have that kind of a strategy where you're trying to turn out less frequent voters, I do think that having a more effective field operation they reportedly have and more money for an effective field operation, which they also are lacking in maybe a critical piece because if you're trying to you know, got to remind someone you got to contact is did you turn out? What's your plan to turn out? Have you voted yet? Who do
you like? That requires a lot of energy and effort, So you know that it's surprising to me that they haven't invested more in that turnout operation, that classic field operation, given how much their strategy is reliant on these less frequent voters.
Absolutely, yeah, I mean I think it will be. Look, I mean religious, I can't. I can't wait at this point now for election night, just because there's been so many like theories and tests that I'm so interested in, Like, at this point, I just want to see the data.
I want to see what actually happens.