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I'm actually taking over their show.
So here there she is, Emily joining us live from the state of California. Got up early for all of us. Thank you all so much. Chrisl unfortunately not able to join as one of our kids is sick. But we're going to have a little bit of breaking reaction to all of the election results last night in the state of New Hampshire. I'm also going to stick around. We'll edit this, you know, so that it's perfectly in the show.
We're going to talk about Barbie, did Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie get snubbed or not?
It's going to be a fun conversation about has thoughts. Yeah, I've got thought. I got a lot of thoughts. I've been bruden about this, so many thoughts.
All right, all right, before we get to the fun, before we get to the fund, we got to eat your vegetables too. We're going to get to the election season, and we've got a discount going on right now. Let's go ahead, put that up there on the screen. We got twenty five percent off of our yearly membership at breakingpoints dot com.
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But before we tease far too much of our plans, let's actually break down what the hell happened in New Hampshire. I brought everybody the news last night that president, our former president, Donald Trump did win the New Hampshire primary. We now know exactly how much he won. And he gave a victory speech last night, very much framing this as a general election victory.
Let's take a listen to what he said.
Well, I want to thank everybody. This is a fantastic state. This is a great, great state. You know, we won New Hampshire three times now three We.
Win it.
Every time we win the primary, we win the generals. We've won it, and it's a very very special place to meet. But she ran up what it was seven, and you know, we have to do what's good for our party. And she was up and I said, wow, she's doing like a speech like she won. She didn't win. She lost. And you know, last week we had a little bit of a problem. And if you remember, Ron was very upset because she ran up and she pretended she won Iowa. And I looked around, I said, didn't
she come in third? Yeah, she came in third. And then I looked at the polls. She was talking about most winnability, who's going to win? And I had one put up. I don't know if you see it, but I have one put up. We've won almost every single poll in the last three months against Crooked Joe Biden.
Almost every pole, and she doesn't win those polls. And she doesn't win those This is not your typical victory speech. But let's not have somebody take a victory when she had a very bad night. The other thing, she only got twenty five percent of the Republican votes, all right.
So that's going to be a very common talking point there, Nicki Haley. We can now say did win about but did lose? I apologize, I guess a win. Maybe in her book we can discuss by about eleven points last night, Donald Trump getting some fifty four percent of the total vote. Now, before we get to everybody's thoughts, Nikki did, and we want to preview this because this really does set up the conversation. She really did give a speech as if she had won. Were really He's not joking and neither
are we. Immediately almost after the polls closed, some eight thirty pm that she appeared on the stage, she pledged that she was going to keep going. We have some of that videos. Take a listen we're all going to react. On the other side, I want.
To congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight. He earned it, and I want to acknowledge that. Now you've all heard the chatter among.
The political class.
They're falling all over themselves saying this race is over. Well, I have news for all of them. New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over.
There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.
With Donald Trump, Republicans have lost almost every competitive election. We lost the Senate, we lost the House, we lost the White House, we lost in twenty eighteen, we lost in twenty twenty, and we lost in twenty twenty two. The worst kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump.
The lawyer.
All right, very enthusiastic crowd. I could say that for the nicky Haley of people who were there in attendance. So, guys, Emily, let me go first to you and get your initial reaction. If you want, we can put the results up there on the screen and you can react to some of the things that we saw there there we go fifty four percent for Trump, forty three percent for Nicky Haley, and point seven for Ron Desanta's interesting.
For whoever those people work, what do you make of last night?
Yes, just when everyone thought they had a bro show. I am here to play hall monitor. But I will also add that Nikkia Haley has spent an obscene amount of money. So let's just for a moment pause and recognize that she outspent everyone in Iowa.
She also now outspent everyone in New Hampshire.
I have the information right in front of This is from CNN, they say, according to ad Impact Data, Hailey's campaign and supportive outside groups have spent more than thirty one million dollars on advertising in New Hampshire just since the start of twenty twenty three.
Now, so far in twenty twenty four, they wrote.
Haley's campaign and its allies has spent about twelve point three million dollars in advertising, compared with about nine point eight million for Trump and his allies. So just take that and put it back up with the fact that she lost by eleven points. She lost by double digits in Iowa, she lost by double digits in New Hampshire, and she is now saying that there's still some path to put up that much money by double digits, So there's some path that she has to the nomination.
She does not have the path to the nomination.
The media enjoys a competitive storyline, and Nicki Haley is going to continue to get money.
She can ride this out as.
Much as she wanted, as much as she wants because people will continue to give.
Her money, at least for the next month or so.
She is down and you heard her there just say her sweet state of South Carolina. Guess what the polling the RCP averages. It's Trump at fifty two, Nikki Haley at twenty.
One, fifty two to twenty one.
So not even all the money in the world can get Republican voters to like Niki Haley. So to the extent that Nikki Haley continues to be a factor in this election, it is because the media and her wealthy donors continue to sponsor her. It is not because the Republican voters. We're not talking about the general electorate. Is not because the GOP voters have any interest in Nicki Haley.
Ryan, what's your reaction, Well, one quick little kind of fact check point on Trump. Notice, at the very beginning he said, we've always won the primaries. True, we also win the generals. He did this funny pause where I think you could see his wheels turning, where he's like, oh, wait, I actually haven't won the job.
He didn't. I'm glad you pointed it out. And then he's like, but I'm gonna say it. Yeah, what's the difference. I'm just going to go.
But Emily's point is great because you know, you can look at this and say, oh, well, she only lost by ten ten, ten plus points or so. But when you consider the fact that she so massively outspent him and her you know, her supporters so massively outspent him, it raises the question of how on earth you can sustain that, because if she doesn't outspend at that scale, you know, she loses by maybe twenty or twenty five points and a kind of narrow ish loss. It just
looks like a complete blowout. This race is over. I don't I does she have some thing where she wants to be humiliated in South Carolina? Or is she going to drop out before that? It seems to be the only question, like.
I really have no idea, and I mean look for people who are saying, you know, maybe you guys are being unfair.
You know, she did. She didn't lose by twenty she only lost by eleven.
Here's what people need to remember, Okay, in New Hampshire, Democrats and undecided voters could actually vote in the GOP primary as long as they changed the registration like a couple of days before. If you want a perfect example of this, guys, here's two clips from both from mainstream media outlets where you have literal Democrats and Biden voters
who decided to cross over and support Nicki Haley. So even in an open primary system where Democrats could enter and where Democrats could try and make sure that she, you know, had some chance against Donald Trump, she still lost by eleven points.
When it was a closed.
System like the GOP primary in I always you got absolutely obliterated and blown out.
So we've got two separate clips that we can show people. Let's take a lesson Nicki Haley.
And why did you vote for Nicki Haley?
It's a vote against Trump.
I think it would be better to have her against Biden in the elections.
Then it would be Trump.
In her do you consider yourself generally independent, Republican or Democrat Democrat? So when you undeclared you voted for Niki Haley. If it was Nicki Haley against Joe Biden in the general election, who are you voting for?
Christian? Who did you vote for?
And why?
Yeah?
So thank you.
I voted for Nicki Haley, and it was certainly a strategic vote. I think the DNC is fairly resolute and their nomination for Joe Biden. And while I wouldn't vote for her in a general election, particularly on our differences with climate change solution, a woman's right to bodily autonomy, or incarceration rates, I think a vote for Nicki Haley is helps diminish Trump's influence in the RNC and their nomination, but is also vote towards democracy.
I watched that one live and I was like, I couldn't even believe it's like you have it ninety. It was a nineteen year old Dartmouth freshman who's literally a Democrat, and he's like, I would not vote for her in the general election, There's no way, but you know, I came out to vote.
Also, if you're going to brag about your strategic vote. You don't admit it.
Yeah, well no, all strategy so naked. I mean, and that's the thing, Emily, for me, and all of this bears out in the exit polls. Let's go and put the first one up here on the screen. We can just look very very clearly about what's happening. So, for example, do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won the election? This was in the state of New Hampshire. Yes, forty nine percent, No, forty nine percent. The reason that that yes number is so much higher in New Hampshire is
now obvious. It's because he had huge independent and or Democratic crossover that came in. And now, are you part of the MAGA movement? Thirty two percent said yes, sixty four percent said no. Huge difference from the state of Iowa. But what stuck out to me, Emily is that Trumps still won. Is that even amongst people, if you say Joe Biden legitimately won the election, even if with two thirds of people say I'm not part of the mag movement, the guy.
Still got fifty four percent of the vote.
I mean, these are all just basically the way I was looking at it is that yeah, Nikki Haley ran up massive numbers in all of these college educated places. She won the most liberal place in the state of New Hampshire, Hanover, where Dartmouth College is.
Maybe thanks to that nineteen.
Years he put her over the edge, but the whole point is that she was not able to even come close in any of the rural the suburban areas. And as we continue to go through the exits, I mean, the divide on this is just absolutely massive.
Yeah, absolutely, And I bet that nineteen year old is a Raggrim fan.
That's my posie.
Yeah, I'm sure.
But anyway, so, yes, and when people yesterday were looking at those exit poles as the numbers were rolling in before we had you know, actual voting tabulations, saying this looks really good for Nikki, I was thinking, actually, this looks really similar to what we saw.
In Iowa when you look at the breakdown.
Of people who thought the election was stolen whatever it is, even people who said noted that turned out for Donald Trump in Iowa. Again, Donald Trump won the educated counties, he won urban, he won high income. Now, the margins were different. We talked about that last week and it was really interesting. But here's where Nikki Haley. These are your CNN's exit polls. This is super telling. She won
seventy percent of the registered undeclared voters. According to the exit poles, she won only twenty seven percent of registered Republican voters, So seventy percent of those undeclared that you can register. Assaga was saying as an undeclared voter, and that's a really really big deal obviously, because it goes to show that among the sort of normal GOP primary voter, this is a state where people were putting lots of
money in. They were pumping these ideas about coming in and voting for people even.
If you're not a Republican voter.
She was really really banking on that, and even with those millions and millions of dollars, it wasn't enough to get her within single digits. Because Donald Trump is popular with Republican voters and the media doesn't want to accept it, donors don't want to accept it. But Donald Trump is popular with Republican voters.
And that's that.
Yeah.
I mean, look again and again and again every exit poll we assembled here. We just want to beat this into people's heads because it's very useful for not just thinking about the GOP primary, but also in the future. And I don't want to put Trump off the hook. There's actually a lot of trouble for him in some of these numbers. So let's, for example, let's put this up there on the screen. Now, you've got do you think that Biden legitimately won the election? Amongst Trump voters?
Seventeen percent said yes? No is eighty percent. That actually tracks with overall GOP polling. But look at the Haley number. Do you think that Biden legitimately won in twenty twenty amongst Haley voters, eighty three percent said yes and no was fifteen percent. The flag to me there is like, okay, well, you know when you're going to compete in a general election and most people, you know, was some sixty So last time I checked, say that Biden did legitimately win,
and you're losing an eighty three to fifteen split. Obviously it's not going to be that high Ryan whenever it does come to the general election.
But if you're trailing that hard, you.
Know, in a category that's that important, you can see a twenty twenty two stop the steel style revulsion really keep people away from Trump, that's the only flag I want to put in there.
Right, Yes, And Nikki Haley in her speech last night, not wrong.
It's just that Republican voters don't they don't care, don't want to wrong audience, She's correct twenty eighteen, right, Blue Wave twenty twenty, Joe Biden twenty twenty two. They expected that they would do much better than they eventually did, and Trump kind of it was. Democrats successfully made twenty twenty two a referendum on Trump. He also lost by three million votes in twenty sixteen. So every time he's been on the ballot, Democrats have beaten him, except for
because the electoral college he won in twenty sixteen. But yeah, to your point, Republican voters do genuinely understand that a lot of them think, well, it's rigged. But even if they don't think it's rigged, they don't care that this is the guy that they want to ride into battle.
Yeah, and then well I also have a point of sig go ahead please.
So yeah.
So actually, one other interesting point that Trump made is that he's, you know, beating Joe Biden in all these polls. Well, this was a huge thing for Nikki Haley because there was polling that found her with the best margins against Biden, and that was something that you were taking the donor class and saying, look.
At this, look at this.
But again, Republican voters, to all of the points that you guys just made, Donald Trump was wrong when he said that, you know, he's the one that does the best against Joe Biden's not. There aren't a lot of polls that would put him ahead of DeSantis and Nicky Haley. Although that's all going to change now, but just in
the past month or so, that was not true. So again, Republican voters, though, to the point that everyone just made, they are not on board with saying it's what we want to have a Pete Buddha judge Amy Klobashar sort of puddle pick a Nikki Haley candidate. That Republican voters are rejecting that model absolutely.
I mean, we see this in the ideology numbers too. We can put that up there just to give people an idea. And you know, another thing to keep in mind is that there was massive turnout last night. Donald Trump won more New Hampshire votes than any other person in the history of the New Hampshire primary Democrat or Republican. They beat the turnout numbers by fifty thousand from twenty sixteen,
just to show you the amount of energy. And yet in the composition of that electorate last night, forty nine percent were registered Republicans. Forty seven percent were registered undeclared. Amongst the ideology, same thing is very very different in Iowa. You've got very conservative for twenty four percent, somewhat conservative, thirty nine moderate thirty one. It was you know, nine percent of that was moderate in the state of Iowa.
Again just showing why Nikki Haley did overperform here. But when you're overperforming amongst literal Democrats and people who are not Republicans, that's a very difficult problem for whenever it comes to the general election and then the final exit poll. This is one where you know, I could spend all day on this thing. Let's put this up there because this is this is it, like, this is the This is American politics in a nutshell.
New Hampshire exit polls.
Never college Trump fifty four percent, some college Trump twenty five percent, bachelor's degree Haley plus thirteen, advanced degree Haley plus twenty six so Nikki Haley doing well amongst college educated voters and amongst people who've got advanced degrees.
But to echo what Crystal said last night, that's not.
Really a winning category whenever it comes to Republican politics. And by the way, it's not our winning category for Democrats either. You can just ask Elizabeth Warren how that worked out for her back in the twenty twenty primary.
And that is the whole ballgame.
But the issue is that, look for Republicans and now let's put on our general election hat because you know, basically sure we can twist in the win for the.
Next month that we want to. That's fine.
We can all pretend. Let's see what happens. And look, I'll give the other side of this. A month is a long ass time in American politics, Like, who the hell knows what could happen. There's all kinds of black swan events. That's what basically what Nikki Haley's hoping for. You were going to say something, go ahead.
Yeah, I was just gonna jump in quickly to say, then we go to the national poll. So if we look at the RCPA average, because you have South Carolina, then you have.
Nevada or Trump is very popular and about it. And then on Super.
Tuesday you have a lot of delegates, some like twelve hundred delegates up for grabs, and that's going to look a lot more like the national polling. And so Nikki Haley spending a lot of money and still losing by double digits in a tiny state with a really friendly, probably the most friendly Republican electorate because you can have the undeclared people coming and vote for her. This is over because in those national polls she is down.
So much more.
Donald Trump is over fifty percent in those polls, because around sixty plus percent in national polls. And so when you look at those people with advanced degrees, master's degrees coming in and saying Nikki Haley is a viable candidate for the next month, even though there are black Swan events, anything could happen.
There's a possibility that Trump goes to jail. I get it. But even if that.
Happens, Even if that happens, the wealthy, college educated people are now going to spend a month and millions of dollars trying to push this candidate on Republican voters that they have rejected by double digits in two early states, even one that's very friendly to her, even where she's outspent everybody else. And now they're going to keep trying to push them on Republican voters. The media is going to help them do it. It's just an absurd circus.
Yeah, it is, certainly.
And like we said, look, this is we've got a month until the South Carolina primary. It's actually, you know, a pretty decent amount of time, and then that's when things really kick off.
Ryan.
So we've got South Carolina that we have Super Tuesday at Florida, and that's like really when the total bow will be tied. I'm curious, you know, if you guys think, do you think she'll drop before South Carolina, like maybe the day before something like that, if the polling position, if the you know, the black Swan event or whatever doesn't happen, Ryan, you first, and.
Then you could certainly imagine that happening, because who wants to lose by forty in your home state?
Right, It's it's brutal, it's horrible, right, But yes, you know.
If you stick around for three four weeks and something happens, then she's kind of the front runner, you know, fending off everybody who jumps back in, but you know, absent that, like, why would you want to get waxed in your own home state?
Exactly, Emily, what do you think you think she'll drop out before South Carolina? Or do you think she'll stay in and then you know, get she'll lose there and then she'll drop out that night. It just seems so brutal because her most By the way, have you guys watched the evolution of her talking point, She's like, I've never lost an election that I'm in, And now last night I picked up on this. It was I've never lost an election in South Carolina. So now I'm like,
I don't know, that's a pretty good talking point. I'm not sure I would want to let that one go if I were her. But you know, the ego can do a lot of things to people's to people's minds.
What do you think we should get a.
Clip of that?
Yeah?
I'm up two minds about this because I actually think right now, there's a lot of cash to be one And I say cash not c A s H but c ah, because when you stay in and become the single issue never Trump candidate, you can do like that that will make her a hero with the people, say, people who put her on the Boeing board, and that seems to be to me what she cares about.
The sort of Tea party era, a.
Chameleon who then became Trump's un ambassador, was super Trumpy, is now back to be never Trumpy.
Uh.
You can just win a.
Lot of you know, kind of accolades from the donor class and the media by staying in and being the single issue never Trump bulwark, Uh to use the phrase bullwark. And so I'm two minds. So does she do that all the way to the bitter end and be that person that the media goes to for the anti Trump talking points, be that person who can then be the sort of champion of the never Trump.
World going forward. I don't know, but.
I think there's something to what Ryan said and what you said, Sager.
I agree.
I mean, I have a hard time of seeing somebody put putting themselves through that level of humiliation. At the same time, if you're doing it for the virtuous cause, then maybe that's the audience she really cares about.
Now exactly exactly right. Okay, let's move on to the Democrats. Let's take a little bit of a look at the results from last night. Let's go to put this up there on the screen and let's see what were the actual results, folks. Okay, so Joe Biden, it appears one fifty one point five percent of the vote. We've got Dean Phillips at nineteen point eight. The key thing here is unprocessed, right ins. Some of those, Ryan, I think are going to go to Biden, some could go to
the ceasefire. Then you've got other rite ins. I'm not really sure what that even means. They didn't seem to tabulate it. Marian Williamson coming in at four point seven percent, so I can go ahead and give them a cull by. I was definitely wrong about Dean. I thought he was going to overperform. I thought his name being on the ballot would come out to thirty. But you know what, guys, I mean, you know a lot of these voters, and I saw some various interviews on you know, MSNBC or CNN.
I was I was like switching through just to see what exactly some of the live conversations with these democrats were. In general, Ryan, a lot of them were people who were just normal Democrats and they're like Hey, you know, I just came out I like to vote.
We take we take this very seriously in New Hampshire.
You know, it's like I teach One of them was a teacher, like I teach my kids about CI responsibility and they were like, oh cool, So why did you come out to vote? And she's like, you know, I just like Biden came in, right, Biden, This no big deal. It's like seven pm or whatever. And I was like, hey, you know, that's actually a very sweet thing. It's very clear that New Hampshire to them overwhelmingly the interviews that I saw on TV but also Twitter, Michael Tracy for example, these people.
Take this shit seriously. I mean they really take it seriously, like coming out to actually vote.
I'm how else in a you know, uncompetitive vertu basically primary on both sides, you have record turnout fifty thousand some votes in the GOP primary, decent amount of votes that were cast, you know, in the Democratic primary. So give us your you know, Democratic primary.
Take from amsure right and so so far, and the New York Times breaks down the right ends as six thousand at this point, six thousand, six hundred and eight. Other right ends yes, and I would think almost all of those are ceasefire, except.
When will we know that?
Do you know in the next day, like today? We should know today or tomorrow, which I had. You know, the organizers in the campaign were talking hundreds or maybe low thousands, So if they ended up over six thousand, that's a pretty significant kind of variant.
It was pretty crazy.
Well, it looks like they're going to beat Mariyan Williams, who only had five thousand votes and just under five percent. Right, then there's unprocessed right INDs, which they describe as just ones that haven't been counted yet. Most of those are probably just based on the numbers. If he got fifty percent of what's been already been counted, you can imagine he's going to get at least fifty percent of the remaining unprocessed.
Right. That's but you could be looking at, uh, you know, ten percent of.
The electorate voting for ceasefire to if this, if this pans out the way it looks like it possibly could, which is far and away more than people thought was way more like remotely possible. But well, we'll see, because you're just looking at a black Boxy Rine.
Will be with me on the main show tomorrow and we'll talk about that just to see when we get the final number.
Emily, what's your overall take?
You know for the Democratic primary, I mean, wasn't all that unexpected per se, But you know, Biden did a lot better than I thought it would. You know, I think Crystal had him at sixty. It looks like you'd come in around fifty one, but where might help at sixty. You might actually rive at sixty. So she seems to be like dead on the money in that case. The polls you're mostly correct and overwhelming victory for him, even though he literally wasn't on the state. So his riding
campaign seems to have worked. You know, the voter suppression and all that weird campaign that we covered yesterday, all that seems to be okay. And Dean, you know, you only cracking twenty percent, but I mean, I guess you could look at it two ways. Twenty percent is also not nothing. That's one if the people who did come
out to vote. He definitely had the advantage of having his name on the ballot, but you only latched his campaign a couple of weeks ago, so you know, he's not dropping out of the race yet, So we'll see before I play his reaction.
What do you think?
Yeah, No, I mean I think that's true because when you're running in New Hampshire, you lay the groundwork there for months and months and months, you know, Ronda Santis on the ground, on the ground in Iowa. He put all his eggs in an Iowa basket. He was there for better part of a year. And when you're doing that, typically and you want to win a primary, you spend tons of time and there, you spend tons of money there. But it's over months and months, not just over the
short period. That said, I was a little surprised that his number was that low.
I would have probably put it up.
Five ten points higher, just in my gus, because there was just New Hampshire voters I think really were given the middle finger by the DNC, and I expected some of that anger to be taken out by protest votes or Team Phillips America, So probaly would have put them a little higher.
Yeah, you have more respect for a Democratic voters than they have for themselves.
That's true.
Yeah, they're like, please stompbo me, stomp on me, please smack me again.
There's more word for that I won't get into it.
All right, let's go ahead and play Dean Phillips and let's see what he had to say about the results last night.
Congratulations to President Biden, who absolutely won tonight, but by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should. But I respect him he won. I want to congratulate former President Trump for winning tonight as well. But Nikki Hayley just said she's been here working for a year. Well, we've been at this for ten weeks, my friends. We decided two weeks before the October twenty seven deadline to
come up to CONCUERD bring a thousand dollars check. I was thirty five years old or older, and I was born in the US, so we became a presidential candidate. We and we just earned twenty percent tonight, And no one knew who you were ten weeks ago.
Nobody.
I know the exhausted majority of this center right and center left Americans, I know they'd much rather see a Nikki Haley Dean Phillips matchup this November. And we're gonna try to get that done.
All right, I mean, we're gonna get that done.
We'll see I guess like he's got the same thing he now he's got.
To go to South Carolina.
Anybody want to tell me how a young white guy fared in South Carolina last time? Ryn, you know, a very similar political ideology to mister Phillips versus Joe Biden.
How out of that workout?
I mean, I I listen, I think I'll probably lose even bigger than Budda Judge did in that stage.
And Buddha Judge the favorite story that I wrote in the entire cycle.
I remember this, you remember the faith absolutely.
He just lied about having some black support, like and I called them up and they're like, Frederick Douglas plan, I don't endorse this, and I don't endorse Pete Bootage.
What is going on? It's like, well, yeah, how did my name get on there?
So maybe that's Dean's path in South Carolina, just to put some people's names down without without asking them.
But he had a black friend, and Ryan was.
Like called nut friends.
Unfortunately, we don't have any there's been no Marianne has not as far as we can find. Our team was not able to find any video or rally or anything from last night, but we did try just for anybody who was wondering.
The extreme blackout of the primary on Democratic kind of a line in media MSNBC, in New York Times I think contributed to this. There was a moment last night on on MSNBC where Rachel Maddow was kind of announcing the results and she says, and she reads out the totals and for miss Williams reads her totals like that's Mary Anne names Marianne, she did know her name, and mss and mister Phillips his name is Dean. And she then congratulated herself for like getting getting their names right.
This is like deeply smug, like it.
Looked like an act, like you know, Mary Williamson's name, best selling author for decades, Like come on, everybody in western Massachusetts loves Mary Williams.
Also, am I the only one who thought Matt I looked like a Bond villain? Can I? Can I say that?
Did you guys note that it was like an all black turtleneck thing with it was an interesting look?
But where I come in as hall monitor? Yeah yeah, misogynist?
Is that masts?
Yeah?
Yeah true? Yeah, there you go. I'm giving her a compliments.
She would be a good Bond villain in many ways of a villain here in the US. I'm all right, so let's okay wrap up our thoughts here for the primer. I mean, look, we knew it was going to be over any chance, I think for Dean, and all of them basically evaporated last night. Andrew yang who has been a major Dean Phillips backer, he basically I guess both
him and Phillips they intimated they're not dropping out. Andrew Yank's like, we're continuing this because I don't want to watch Joe Biden's concession speech.
But at the end of the day, I mean, this thing just looks locked in. I mean, you know, in general.
That's why I was trying to bring in some general election polling in our previous block about Republican Republican results, because it just seems foolish to even pretend now at this point. So what was what can we maybe glean from this primary for the overall general election. Biden clearly in a strong position with the Democratic base at least whenever it comes to votes, even it doesn't necessarily match up with some of the polling that says a lot
of people were disgusted with him, with his age. They're very disgruntled. Many of them are still willing to you know, even in the Haley case, for example, if we sub her out for Biden, I think the majority of the people who came out to vote for Nikki Haley last night did so because her name was not Trump. Very very similar emily to the dynamic of Joe Biden in the twenty twenty election, and it seems that force could not just be more pop not just as potent's twenty twenty,
it actually be more potent. So Biden may not be as weak position, you know, as we might have thought a year or so ago.
What do you think, Oh, that's an interesting point. I actually hadn't thought about that.
I think there's probably truth there, Jennething I would say, is you know, when we're looking at the general election from primaries, I don't know.
I never know what to draw from it, just because to your point.
One of the reasons I think Dean Phillips and probably Nikki Haley too, I think this maybe applies to both of them wants.
To stay in the race.
Is that, you know, black swan event with something unpredicted with Biden's health or I shouldn't say unpredicted because a lot of people have made predictions about Joe Biden's health. But if something happens to Joe Biden, you sort of have an air apparent.
If as these states.
Go on, Dean Phillips is able to wrack up, you know, significant chunks of the vote, and I think twenty percent in New Hampshire.
I mean, to your point, like, it's not nothing, and.
So if he keeps showing that he's someone that can, you know, get some support, then maybe he's in a position if something happens to Biden.
I don't know.
That's my guess as to why he stays in. That's one of the reasons I think Nikki Haley would want to stay in. But you know, it's just like, I have no idea what's going to happen between now and next November, in terms of the economy, in terms of what we're about to talk about next, which is Israel, Ukraine, all of that. So it's just really hard because I think it's going to be a close election either.
Way, exactly.
Yeah, No, Look, I don't think there's this slam dunk in either case. I still put it at fifty to fifty. I wouldn't even give the edge to either of them. I think that's too high for both of them. Franklin, I think that's I mean, that's.
Kind of how a lot of people feel.
That's how a lot of people feel about the election. But even though it's very common, everyone says, and including me, I'm like, this is the election nobody wants. But listen, if they succeed in dragging these two people to the ballot, most of us will come out to the polls and I have to vote for one of them, or for
RFK if he's managed to get himself on there as well. Ryan, And as I think New Hampshire and the Deep Deal, the Democratic Primary and all that can prove you can be dissatisfied with somebody, you cannot even like somebody, many people will come out to vote for party loyalty.
Yeah.
The idea that the election that everybody wants is Dean Phillips against nikkiy Haley is kind of funny. But also I think what that is actually expressing is this kind of aspiration that people are not as angry as they are and that the world is much calmer and chiller than it actually is because that's a world in which you could imagine Dean Phillips versus a Nikki Haley, where it's really hard to tell what they even necessarily disagree about.
But that's not the public that we have.
That's not the world we have, and that's not the world that has been kind of, you know, deliberately engineered by the people who are now frustrated that we don't have that peace fairy true.
Okay, I'm going to drop off now and the people who are watching this sequentially will see me in the oscars block.
The IDF killed at least one hundred and twenty Palestinians overnight in Gaza as attacks there continued. That's according to the Gaza Ministry of Health now plus nine seven two in Israeli Israeli news organizations reporting interestingly emily that the Israeli intelligence is now using the Gaza Ministry of Health
numbers in its own assessments. Early on in the conflict, they apparently, according to nine to seven two, surveiled the Gaza Ministry of Health, which the BBC and others still refer to us quote unquote hamas run to try to figure out whether or not those casualty figures being produced were accurate or not. They determined that they are accurate, and so now even Israeli intelligence is now using Ministry of Health numbers.
Now, all this is coming as there.
Has been reports of a of a two month ceasefire offered by Israel and rejected by Hamas John Kirby was asked about this yesterday, Let's play a little bit of sound from that report that.
The Israelis are presented in a new ceasefire, a temporary ceasefire, or a hostage deal about two month pause to release all the hostages and the advise of.
The civilians and soldiers.
Can you confirm that as the US engaged as Bretts in the leaguer right now, is he trying to actively serve drum up support froms for that framework of deal.
Yeah, I'm not able to confirm those specific reports that you're that you're talking about in the press. Brett is in the region. He was in Cairo today as a matter of fact, and he'll have other stops along the way. Certainly, one of the things he's in the region talking about is the potential for another hostage deal, which would require a humanitarian pause of some length to get that done,
and that's definitely on the agenda. He'll also be talking about a range of other issues, including humanitarian assistance, including getting assessment of Israeli Defense force operations and protection of civilian life. I mean, there's a lot on his agenda, but I can't confirm these reports that those are the parameters of the deal that's being discussed. The last thing I'll leave you with is that, as I've said before,
the discussions are sober and serious. Again, I don't want to get ahead of where we are or give you I can't give you odds on if and when we'll be able to get there, but the conversations are very sober and serious about trying to get another hostage deal in place now Emily.
Israel has not publicly confirmed that they made this offer, though the reporting as strongly suggests that they did. Hamas has not publicly confirmed that they rejected the offer, though the public reporting suggests that they did. What do you make of both the offer and also then the rejection.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know what the Biden administration strategy is here, and I just just don't have confidence in the Biden administration strategy at all. I was actually curious Ryan you made of how John Kakerby handled that question, because he when he said I can't confirm that those are the parameters of the deal, it sounded like he was saying, those are the parameters of dele What did you think about that?
Yes, And the way that he finished it off by saying that that the talks are sober and serious around you know, upcoming hostage release negotiations does suggest that these that these talks are in a pretty advanced stage. I think one thing that is underlying all of these talks is how poorly the war is going for Israel in particular. And we can, you know, put up this next element here, which is the biggest example that we've seen. We covered
this on the show yesterday. Three IDF soldiers were killed in separate clashes, but twenty one IDF soldiers were killed in a single incident. And I want to talk about that incident real briefly before we get into some of the other elements in this block. We now understand that so this happened on the kind of the eastern end of the Gaza Strip, only about six hundred meters from
a kibbutz that has been evacuated. Israeli government has said that the reason that they were doing a controlled demolition in this area is so that residents of the Gadzsa envelope and particularly that nearby Kuutz could eventually return. In other words, they're trying to destroy the civilian infrastructure to create a buffer zone. Now, a no buffer zone has
been a line for the Biden White House. I don't want to say redline because they don't seem to kind of enforce any of their lines, but they have very publicly said that there can that there can be no Gaza Strip territory that is currently Palestinian territory that is
turned op that is lost to the Israeli government. Uh Separately, the Geneva Conventions, and one of the elements of the Geneva Conventions that Israel itself has ratified, says you cannot kind of destroy civilian infrastructure in order to seize territory, which which which this very specifically would be doing. So this this incident, which has become a massive scandal inside Israel, we now understand was being performed in furtherance of what is objectively understood to be a war crime.
So we have also don't we have some further elements Ryan that get to this point, just so that people can see.
Let's talk we're talking about.
Here, sure, and let's talk about some of the other kind of things that have been emerging that continue to turn people against this war. This The attacks continue on Khanyunis, which apparently is something like five hundred thousand plus people are now huddled in Conunis, one of the second largest city in Gaza, but a place that Israel told.
People to flee for safety. Let's play this clip here in.
The yard of Nasa Hospital in Khanyunis, Gazans bury their dead on Monday. Is Radi warplanes drown overhead. They're unable to reach the cemeteries. Is Raeli tanks storming the main city in Gaza's south have reached the gate of this and another hospital in the bloodiest fighting of the year so far. Abdul Kharim Ahmad says he went through this at the Ashiffa complex in Gaza city a few months ago, where he also buried loved ones.
We besieged from all sides. We were living the same scenario again and burying them in the.
Yard of the Nasa hospital.
There is no safe place.
No way out.
Inside the wounded, desperate and stricken, crowded the wards and corridors. This is the only major medical complex accessible in car Unis and the largest still functioning in Gaza. Rabit Salem's injured family waited until morning for an ambulance. My mother was alive and told me, don't worry, go grab the others. But she's gone now, he says.
Another war crime allegation that has been breaking through, if we just run through this as well into the Western press, has been the IDF desecration of cemeteries throughout Gaza. The Times of Visral here reporting IDF said heavily damage sixteen Gaza cemeteries during military operation.
Has been a lot of reporting in the Israeli pressing this.
But CNN too witnessed this, you know, as it's the only way except for that kind of one CNN reporter who was able to get to a UAE run kind of field hospital has has been through kind of embedding with the IDF, and so you would expect that you're not going to get a whole lot of reporting about Israeli war crimes when you're embedding, you know, directly with the IDF. However, listen to what CNN saw as they were rolling through with Israeli forces.
CNN witnessed firsthand the results of Israel's bulldozing of graveyards while embedded with Israeli forces. Last week, the armored personnel carrier CNN was traveling in drove right through this cemetery in Albrage on a freshly bulldozed dirt road.
So we have, you know, one hundred and twenty minimum Palestinian civilians killed. We have the desecration of these cemeteries punching through into the Western press. We have the twenty one IDFs soldiers killed while trying to create a buffer zone, which the United.
States has very explicitly said we do not approve of.
And my sense is that one of the reasons that there were this rejection of this initial offer is that Hamas must feel that the war is not going very well for the IDF.
But what's your read on it?
Yeah, I have exactly the same read on it.
And that's why I thought it was helpful to put all of those things, or for everyone to see those things.
Together, because when you think about that, I have read or heard that, you know, a lot.
Of those twenty one IDF soldiers who were killed were reservists.
They have the family is just an awful thing.
And so that question of from the perspective of Israel, is everything that we are doing in this war, if they're thinking about it like that, is everything that they're doing making is really safer now and in the long term?
Is this justice? Is this making us safer?
And when you look at all of that, it reminds me a lot of what we were talking about with the Houthis last week.
Ryan, the Houthi's saying you, basically, we're enjoying this, you know, bring it on.
You escalate the war for all we care. We wouldn't mind if you escalated the war. It's like that's not being factored factored into at least publicly. It doesn't seems that that's being factored into the is really decision making the strategy because it's like they're prosecuting a war where they expect hamas at some point what to be the word they use is annihilated.
Well, hamas. You can't annihilate.
Hamas like a traditional army and listen, like I'm armshare quarterbacking this from the United States and Israel knows that, but the strategy doesn't reflect it.
It doesn't seem to reflect it.
Because if your goal in all of these uh you know, bulldozing of cemeteries, and you know Hamas does embed itself within civilian infrastructure, but of course Gaza is tiny and densely populated and all of that. But if your goal is to annihilate Hamas and this keeps, these examples keep happening, it's going to get a lot harder, I think, to continue selling this war, not just on the international stage, but even at home as their own soldiers are dying.
The further that it gets from October seventh than the sort of sense that this was a just response that's going to make us safer now and in the future, I think that gets that case gets a lot lot harder to make. The more you see Hamas sort of responding like the Huthis have You've seen like the leader of Hamas abroad say to the extent he said something to the extent of like this is going great for us, Like this is you know, since October seventh, we've realized
that we can get away with a lot. They're not a traditional military, so it's it's not the same thing, and I just don't understand. I guess I understand, but I don't think it's going to be easy to sell this in the future. Right.
And on the one hand, it's awfully cynical to me of Hamas leadership to refuse pauses because of the extent of the suffering that the civilian population is going through.
But at the same time.
Just as there seems to be no coherent strategy coming from Israel at this moment, there seems region wide to
be no coherence strategy coming from the United States. There are reports now that the US believes that there will be so much pressure on shipping as a result of both the Houthi attacks and the US response, that it will raise shipping costs for China, and then China will then exert its influence on Tehran, which will then exert its influence on the Houthis and will get the Houthis to stop firing missiles at ships, which is you know,
most most global strategies you talked about like that, that's absurd,
Like A, China can't do that. B China isn't going to do that because because China is quite fine with US creating this gigantic morass for ourselves separately, as even Voice of America, which is the kind of the US military run news outlet, reported who these have been very clear that they will allow Russian ships and Chinese ships and any other ships that are not associated with the US or military effort US or Israeli effort in Gaza.
They're letting those pass. They're letting those pass.
And so the idea that you're going to get China to jump in and bail us out of our own air strikes in Yemen, and by the way, we launched air strikes yesterday on Somalia claimed self defense. There more air strikes on Yemen. We also launched air strikes at the Iraq Seri of border, and our own bombs were
falling in Gaza. So if we creeped across that border, you know, that's that's five countries that we bombed in a single day, which has got to be which has got to be approaching a record, and it's leading to actual pushback in the United States Senate yesterday there was a letter we can put up this this next element here from a bipartisan group of senators Mike Mike Lee and Todd Young Republicans and Chris Murphy and Tim Kaine, who are considered to be very serious Democrats, these are
these are not This is not the peace nick wing of the Democratic Party. And they write, we believe that American participation in another war in the Middle East cannot happen in the absence of authorization by Congress unless there is a need to repel a sudden attack. The Constitution requires that the United States not engage in military action
absent a favorable vote of Congress. Does your administration believe there is legal rationale for a president to unilaterally direct US military action to defend ships of foreign nations.
So Emily uh to.
Todd Young and Mike Lee, how much pull do they have in Republican quarters? Could we see kind of a genuine bipartisan coalition coming together and pushing back here.
I think we'll see a genuine bipartisan coalition, But I don't think it will matter because if you look at Senate leadership, they are they have absolutely these are not people who care about these extremely serious questions about war powers. And this is the this coalition and everything that you just read that they said is absolutely accurate. It's absurd that we are so numb to how these wars are prosecuted at this point. And Mike Lee and Todd Young
are heavy hitters. They actually are, you know, well respected, well liked, serious conservatives. You know, they're not McConnell Lackey's, but they're also you know, not they're not considered you know, like media celebrities or anything like that.
They're not like on Fox News every day. That's all I'm trying to say.
They are serious people, and uh this that's the that's.
What's really sad about this.
It doesn't matter because as you know, Ryan, you've been covering this way longer than I have. The blahb always wins and these conversations about war powers. So I'm glad to see it bipartisan coalition, and I'm glad to see that it's not just sort of relegated to the fringes, you know, Matt Gates for example, speaking of the fringes, Like Matt Gates has actually been very good on this, even in relation to Somalia going back a long time.
And so to have someone like Mike Lee and Todd Young making this case in the opera chamber is important and it's great. I am just so thoroughly cynical about this making much of a difference going forward, right, and.
Speaking of some of these atrocities breaking through in the West. Whanted to close this segment with incredible reporting from I twenty four in an independent news outlet in the UK, which is kind of set up seventy years ago or so as sort of a competitor to BBC. They had an I twenty four cameraman in Gaza who carry had a bunch of interviews and let's let's let's roll this and I can I can narrate this for some of the people you know who aren't aren't.
Able to watch.
Oh correction, I will not be narrating this because this is this is a side. So let's roll this from I from this news clip from I twenty four.
As he moved forwards towards the combat zone, he noticed this group of men doing their utmost to appear non threatening, trying to proceed with care. They wanted to reach two other family members and get them out of harm's way.
And and had Joe a Juio and Halepens and as the house of as you didn't film but not a baluch.
The interview complete. Our cameraman walked away, and then this happened. The interviewee had been shot and fatally wounded. You can see them place their flag on his chest, I mean, just have a hood. As he was carried away, the white flag was turning away.
And so it's pretty self explanatory if you could hear the narrator. But you see a group of men who are waving a white flag trying to get from one one part of the area to another to help to escort out some of their other family members to safety.
And then out.
Of nowhere, kind of shots rang out and one of the men who was just being interviewed appears to almost die instantly. And as they're carrying him away in this indelible image, they placed the white flag as something of a bandage on his chest, and you can see the
blood soaking through the white the white flag. His wife is not far away from him, and she soon after this clip and she realizes, you know, what has what has happened to her husband, who was just trying to, you know, go go help some family members.
Uh she uh you know, you know, uh.
Collapses into unimaginable grief. And while this while that's happening. Shots continue to ring out, and you see all these children around these men who are kind of looking left and right, trying to trying to find somewhere where they
can go to hide. But it's not exactly clear, you know, where where they're getting shot from, uh, and where they can where they can where they can go, and all all the while they're trying to find some way that they could get this uh, this man who has just been shot help.
Uh.
This comes, of course, just a few weeks after the IDF shot and killed three is escaped a Israeli hostages who were waving a white flag, and so there doesn't seem to have been a following in that incident, any reflection whatsoever on how to respond to unarmed civilians who are wearing white flags.
The fact that this aired.
In a western country, in the in the UK, Emily, do you think that this type of incident has the potential to break through or are the camps just so dug in at this point that the defenders of Israel are going to continue to see catastrophes like this as the equivalent of victims of an earthquake or a hurricane.
Can't really tell who's.
Responsible and that was ITV and not I twenty four rate.
Oh yeah, did I say I twenty four Sorry?
Yeah, ITV is British, right, yes, okay, so.
ITV? Sorry, thank you.
Yeah, it's yes. And so again that's where I do think these these images are powerful in the Western press. And I actually think again, like I saw I was watching a podcast interview, is that the foreign leader of Hamas,
who's sort of media facing. People have probably seen some of his interviews that he's done, is talking, I think, just in the last couple of days about how they've been somewhat that's the right word, surprised to see the reaction or the lack of support, the support for Palestinians in the last the lack of support for Israel in the West. And that's a good thing for Hamas, and
that you can see it sort of empowers Hamas. And to that point, I'm not trying to say that that doesn't mean people should support Palestine.
What I am saying is that.
What he's talking about is how people are reacting I think exactly to clips like that it does. The one thing he's right about there is that does make that difficult for Israel. And listen like I don't want Hamas to be in charge of Gaza. I want to see Hamas annihilated. The idea though, that Hamas is going to be an annihilated if you just do operations like this enough where you have people with white flags, or you have where people with white flags get caught up.
Or you have a civilian infrastructure.
Because Hamas has some hundreds of miles now through reporting, we know hundreds of miles of tunnel.
You're not going to annihilate Hamas.
And then what next, say that we've talked about this right and say that is accomplished. If you annihilate Hamas, what's going to come into that vacuum that is better than Hamas?
If not?
You know, the United States, who's providing essential support in this war, believe in a two state solution. Yahu and the people that Yaho is answering to in his coalition do not believe in a two state solution. So actually none of this makes sense too for the future, Like the strategy, the more of these clips are played in the midst of the strategy, I think, the more difficult it does get for Israel. And that's the bottom line.
Like I actually think some of these soldiers are you know, I don't want to minimize the difficulty of their situation, and I don't know, but this looks horrific. I mean,
it looks horrific and likely is horrific. And so I think the longer this goes on without a really clear strategy, I think it actually also will get more difficult to continue selling to the Israeli public as a whole, because even you know, far right people, and I say that, you know, they would obviously want an escalation in the war, but even some of the people on the far right and Israel aren't happy with what the end goal seems to be.
Yep, no, no doubt about that. Emily.
You've got some updates on the border situation in the border negotiations, right.
Yeah, absolutely, so.
The Supreme Court ruled temporarily, by the way, that's an important part of this. They ruled temporarily to allow the federal government to remove razor wire on the border wall that Texas, the Government of Texas put there, and the government of Texas argued that I'm sorry, the federal government argued that the wire illegally prevented them from managing the border. And we talked last week ran about the situation with migrants who had drowned, and there was a big back
and forth about the razor wire. There's a big back and forth about how Texas is stepping in to what they see as a power vacuum on the border.
The federal government sort.
Of allowing mass asylum claims to be made, no remain in Mexico and people crossing the Rio Grande or you know, crossing in various ways, and Texas wants to sort of step into the power vacuum. But it's created, I think, really legitimate problems. I think Texas even has to concede that these are really legitimate problems.
So as a five were ruling, Amy Coney.
Barrett and John and Roberts are part of the five.
And again this is temporary.
It's well that this is still being considered in the Fifth Circuit, so there will be more decisions on this. But the Supreme Court stepped in and said temporarily the federal government can cut this razor wire. Essentially, Tucker Carlson, we have some reaction from him. This is what Tucker tweeted. He said, So it's unanimous, everyone in power, from the White House to the hedge fund managers to the Supreme Court of the United States has decided to destroy the
country by allowing it to be invaded. That leaves the population to defend itself. Where are the men of Texas. Why aren't they protecting their state and the nation? Chip Roy obviously a big Freedom Caucus guy, He called on Texas officials to just completely ignore the ruling. He said, quote they have a duty in the under the Constitution and every other normal leadership of any sovereign state to protect your citizens, period, full stop.
There is no exception to that.
And if the Supreme Court wants to ignore that truth, which a slim majority to Texas still had the duty, Texas leaders still have the duty do defend their people. Now, let's put this Politico headline up on the screen. This comes as a bipartisan border deal is being considered, and Chris Murphy signaled to Politico that the talks were quote
largely done. What we know from that is you have Chris Murphy, Lankford, Cinema, some of these very leadership, the center right, center left people in the Senate coming together and trying to get a border package done. And what we know is that they've talked about capping daily entries.
They've talked about.
Restricting asylum, and they've also talked about restricting parole, which according to Politico, is one of the hot items is like what are the presidential parole authorities?
That's being debated.
Chris Murphy says they've kind of come together on that question, but we have absolutely no idea. What this reminds me of what we talked about with Samkadaltek last week, Ryan.
The lobbying we had it. We did a segment about how the.
Wealthiest caucuses and yeah, the wealthiest districts.
Are the ones that are part of the you know, like bipartisan caucuses and the people.
Who you know, stress cooperation and all of that and get wonderful media treatment. We actually have no idea what these centrists Chris and Cinema Langford, Chris Murphy, we have no idea what they're doing. So all of this could mean so many different things. And if it's just spending more to have more fun little drones on the border, that's not going to do a lot. If there are serious changes to asylum policy, maybe that would do more.
We have no idea at.
This point, and I don't think I have any trust in them that they're going to do something significant, because neither side wants.
To do something significant, and what's going to happen, and it has been happening, right.
I'll just recall this really brief story because of how byzantine this.
Bureaucracy at the border is.
Human laves are getting caught up in it, and the way that this is kicked to the courts because Congress is too afraid to act because the President has taken authorities that I think are questionable. Not talking about the cutting the razor wire. I think actually there's a legitimate dispute of constitutional powers there, and I understand what trip Roy is saying because Texas' citizens actually are really in
the crosshairs of this, so it makes sense. At the same time, Texas has a federal border, so there's there's a very substantive and interesting kind of constitutional conversation happening on that level. But this is just briefly. I've told you about this rain when Title forty two was being kicked back and forth in the courts, it was such a sad and awful situation, and I actually made a
border trip when that was happening. You could talked to people who were caught up in Then I talked to a kid whose name was Osnil.
He's from Cuba.
He had come up through Venezuela or up through Panama.
Darien Gap done the whole thing.
Paid some stupid amount of money for someone from Cuba, like eleven dollars. He crossed because he thought Cubans were still being let in because where Title forty two was in the courts. He got sent back because it was the day that that had changed. And then he tried to cross again because Title forty two was changing at this point in time day to day, got sent back again. There's so much confusion, and cartels are praying on the confusion, and that's I think the real sad thing about what's
happening in the court system right now. Ryan, I've just talked way too long. What did you make of this decision from Monday?
I don't so the Supreme Court is saying that Texas is overstepping it's authority here, but it's kind of not weighing in all the way. Congress hasn't touched this for decades. At this point. I'm curious how serious you think these negotiations are, because while the White House seems to have a significant amount of incentive to kind of go against its base and go against what it has said its values are on immigration for a very long time and cut a deal for political reasons in the in the midst of.
A presidential campaign.
On the flip side, it feels like Republicans don't have any incentive at all politically at least to reach a deal, and so maybe maybe some senators you know, can come together with some Democratic senators. But over on the House side and from Trump himself, it feels like letting Biden have a win on the border is something that they
don't have any intention of doing. You're hearing a lot of rhetoric from House Republicans saying unless it's our full one hundred percent of our bill HR two, we're not doing anything, and we're gonna wait until we're in power, which reminds me of how Democrats have always said that they're going to do all of these things one day when they're in power.
They're going to they're going to codify Roe V.
Way, they're gonna they're gonna, you know, you know, all of these promises that they've made for decades. Eventually they're going to do it, So just support republic Support Democrats now, and then don't don't fight us on these issues, and then eventually, when we get enough power, then we will do the things we're promising.
What's your sense of how serious.
We should take House Republicans when it comes to the ability to reach a deal with Biden on the border.
Yeah, you're exactly right. And it actually reminds me a lot of repeal and replace.
Right there you go. Yes, we will notice it, and then we'll do it.
Yeah, yeah, do it fifty times when they have no power, but zero times and they can actually do it.
And again, like actually, from a political perspective, I completely understand the Freedom Caucus block, and not just the anti McCarthy block, but like the entire Freedom Caucus holding fast.
To HR two because HR two is a bill.
That ten years ago I think would have been non controversial because given the level of problems that there is that exists. And the New York Times and an interesting story just this week actually about how what's the real shift in immigration has been on the Democratic side. Looking at polling data, Democrats have gotten much much more favorable to lenient immigration policies than Republicans have basically stayed the same, and that's where I think I understand holding fast to
HR two. It's not realistic. Democrats are not coming back to the table on HR two. But I do think there's an unreasonableness. I don't think. I don't believe that there's going to be a policy put forward. And I could be wrong, because we are told, according to Politico, that asylum is on the table, So I could be wrong, and they could have some really substantive changes to a silent policy there. But that's what I just haven't seen a will to do.
And that's to me.
It's not even a partisan thing. To me, it's just our assigned policies are so inhumane because they give so many people false hope. They're really good for the cartels and like they just whether you think they should be way more liberal or more restrictive, what they really need to be is clear, and I don't think either side has the ability to come to a consensus on clarity
about asylum. And unless we have clarity about asylum, we can have all the razor Texas can put all the razor wire that it wants up, more people are still going to be hurt, more people are going to cross The only interesting thing I'll add is Todd Bensman, who's been.
On the show before.
We're reported at the New York Post that's he had a source who shared numbers with him showing that crossings have dipped significantly in the last couple of weeks. And the theory is that Biden has struck a deal with AMLO and with Mexico. According to Todd's sources, there's been a lot more enforcement within Mexico.
They've really bulbed up their enforcement.
And the idea is that that's a Biden your sort of deal for election purposes.
If that's true, and if Mexico is.
Enforcing their own policies and is being more careful about, for an example, the train that has basically been very loosely uh police, the trains that come up perry migrants, that's that's good because people need to stop taking these awful trips to the Darien gaps where they're dying, where people are being raped in masks horrific. I don't I don't know, Ryan, I don't know the I think.
What we need is clarity, and I don't think we're going to get any clarity. So I'm pretty cynical in that.
Yeah, that's cynicism on this issue.
Sounds about right at this at this point, definitely from a political perspective, before we bring sagerback for a very exciting debate over Barbie and the OSCARS clarification slash possible correction, we'll see. So earlier in the show, I had said that we that we would know by tonight or tomorrow. You know a lot of who these remaining write in votes are for. Janke Yuger told Crystal apparently that he's now being told that they're not going.
To release these numbers.
There was pressure, you know, from Democratic Majority for Israel super Pack on the secret New Hampshire Secretary of State not to release the number of people who voted who wrote in ceasefire. The word from the New Hampshire Secretary of State, however, earlier this week, was that they would be releasing this. Figures the organizers behind that campaign believe that the law requires them to release this, but it feels like it is at this point an open question.
Good reason to stick around and check the show out tomorrow morning, but without any further ado, we've got to get to Sager's thoughts on Barbie stick around for that.
Okay.
At the same time, the actual election analysis that everybody has been waiting for the OSCARS election. We got the official nominations yesterday and there is absolute outrage that Barbie the major I get Blockbuster, you know, Event of the last year, one of the biggest movies in a long time with original script. Although we'll get to that in
terms of discussion around IP and more. While it did get a lot of Academy Award nominations, Greta Gerwig, the director, and Margot Robbie, who was both producer and really kind of like the person who got the movie off the ground as well as the lead actress, did not receive nomination, but they did get a lot of others. Let's put that up there on the screen. Thanks to our graphics team for putting this together. OSCAR nominations. So Barbie has
been nominated for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress. I want to return to that one for America Ferrara, Best Supporting Actor, Ryan Gosling, Best Adapted Screenplay, Original Song. Are two original songs actually? Costume design and production design. Okay, this, like I said, has caused absolute outrage from a lot of people online, including to one of the stars of the movie, Ryan Gosling, who is very upset that he was nominated for and Best Supporting Actor. But then Margot Robbie and
Greta Gerwig were spurred. Let's go put this his statement, this is what he has to stay up here, says, I am extremely honored to be nominated by my colleagues along such remark artists, et cetera, et cetera.
But there is no Ken without Barbie.
There is no Barbie movie without Greta Gerwig or Margot Robbie, the two people most responsible for this history making globally celebrated film. No recognition would be possible for anyone on the film without their talent, their grit, and their genius. To say that I am disappointed that they are not nominated in their respective categories would be an understatement against
all the odds. With nothing but a couple of soulless, scantily clad and thoughtfully thankfully crossless dolls, they made us laugh, they broke our hearts, they pushed the culture, and they made history. Their work should be recognized along with the other very deserving nominees. Man It's almost like he's talking about their freaking Nobel Prize or something, not the Oscars. Emily, I definitely wanted to talk about this with you. This
is being described as a feminist snub. It's a major snub of Greta Gerwig and they're like, oh my gosh, what if a man is the only person to actually win, the only person actually win an oscar out of the Barbie movie. Some people have said that would be objectively hilarious, but I want to I'm curious for your take, and then right and I will give ours.
Well, thank you for letting the ladies go first. This very gentleman lead. Are your chivalry not dead?
But so there's a lot to make of this, and I'm glad that we're talking about it, because, as you know, one of the I think Saguron I probably on the same page about all of the virtues of the lack of virtues of contemporary feminism. And even so, I actually really enjoyed the Barbie movie.
I wrote a piece about it for the Federalists saying that it was it was in.
A way reminiscent, and I don't think intentionally, I think this was probably its biggest flaw. It was reminiscent of the sort of Camille Polya take on sex and gender, this sort of biological essensualism. Men and women are different, and that's what most of the jokes in Barbie.
Are going for. Now, that said, that's a really low bar.
For good culture is recognizing the differences between men and women and making jokes about it. So I think the script was a little incoherent, but I thought Greta Gerwig did a good job. I think she did a best director level job. And I thought Margot Robbie was fantastic. So I don't want to steal your point, but we very much agree. It's not so much no woman was nominated because America Ferrera got the supporting nod. It really should have been Margot Robbie, and I think Greta Gerwig
deserved to be up there. They had her for costume that well, they have Barbie for costume production and Best Picture, so there's a lot of Greta Gerwig.
Obviously that goes into all of those things. In a way.
She's very much nominated, just not in the director category. And I actually think that's what Barbie was great at.
I thought the.
Design aesthetically, it actually was really innovative and interesting, even if the script didn't match that level of quality. And even if, and this is a good way to toss it back to you, Sager, some of the acting and some of the writing, and I'm specifically talking about the part written for America Ferrera is absolutely insufferable in Barbie right.
And that is where I'm getting really annoyed here, because people are like, oh, it's snub you know, all the women or getting my guys, America Ferrah got nominated. The scandal is that America Ferrera is the worst part of the movie. Ryan, you and I were talking about this. She's the one who gives the annoying speech about how difficult it is to be a mom or whatever, and
everyone it's just like the most eye rolling part. I was in the most liberal of all theaters, and even there people were like, come on, man, like.
We there were some really funny points in that speech, but it was a little bit.
I had a good time.
I enjoyed the movie, and I think largely it was because it was a social experience and I was around a lot of other people who were having it. You know, people were dressed up and we were laughing. It's kind of like going to the Taylor Swift movie. Is it a good movie? Obviously no, But you know when you see like nine year olds like having the time of their lives, you cannot help but imbibe like some of the some of that joy right on yourself. So I think that was part of my experience as a movie.
Like, let you like the movie because it was about.
Ken, Yeah, that's right exactly.
I liked it because it was about using TRT in order to get the best physique possible.
But my point was just right into the sun every morning.
Yeah.
Actually, Ken is living the health lifestyle that I want to live. But let's fly all that and let's just actually think about this. First of all, what people many misunderstand about the categories is that for Best Picture, all members of the Academy get to vote on Best Picture. For the director category, it's all the directors who are in the Academy, it's not everybody else. So it's not a surprise then that they elevate like you know, like a tour movies like genuine cinema and if we're going
to put it on that category. And this is the other thing Barbie made one point four billion dollars. It's not like you don't need the best director Stamp, Greta Gerwig, You're fine. But let's also look at some of her past movies. Ladybird is a way better movie. It's actually a very good movie. Little Women even actually a sleeper. I actually that was a good movie once again. And it's one of those where people don't pay attention to the fact that the Academy is not meant to just
you know, rubber stamp blockbusters people. You know, first of all, the oscars don't even matter, so like, to a certain point, this is all irrelevant. But in terms of this trying to be a cultural touchstone and all that, we do not look at Iron Man and be like, wham, this is the best film ever made. We're like, yeah, that movie made a ton of money. Yeah it was good, it was fun. And then we all just move on with our lives and we're not like, oh my god,
what a scandle. You know that it wasn't denominated or whatever. And then if we're gonna think in the best Director category, and Ryan, this is where I'm curious for what you think to me. If we're gonna look at you know achievement and all that. What is more impressive. You're gonna get the most one of the most internationally recognized ips.
Turn it into a good script definitely difficult, or you were going to adapt, frankly, not a very good book, which is American Prometheus, the actual biography of Jay Robert Oppenheimer.
Turn it into a three.
Hour bio pick and let's be honest where it drags a lot in the middle, and turn it into a nearly billion dollar blockbuster that people dressed up for. And turn into an event movie that's also historically important. That is a ten times more impressive achievement achievement. To me, Barbie would have been a hit even if it was bad. It just happened to be good. Oppenheimer, I mean, I think only Nolan could have done something like that.
Ryan, what do you think to me?
The oscars ought to take into con sideration how difficult it is to move from your concept to like a great film like Dustin Hoffman, like getting an Oscar for rain Man, like not that impressive, like that he's just like it's a great performance, but it was also like sign steal and delivered for an Oscar, Like he's just he's just going for it, whereas they took a ridiculous premise like we're going to like just take a commercial about like kids toys, right and turn it into a
film and try to make a whole bunch of money on it, and then she somehow managed to make an actually tremendous film. Now, so I think that she got snubbed because of the giant gap between those two things.
Well, when if she gets Best Picture, best picture is still in getting the guys for Margart. Robbie is a freaking producer on the movie, so is Greta Gerwig. By the way, the movie made one point four billion dollars. People are going to be just fine.
But one reason okay with her getting snubbed though, is because she really flopped the landing with this like rareification of neoliberalism. But the very end with this you are you are kanough like nobody's kanough. You need you need community, you need socialization, you need friends, you need family like you need loved ones around you.
Nobody is enough.
And the idea that you would try to tell a whole bunch of kids that they don't need anything other than themselves, I thought was just a like horrific message at the end. Soh my politics say, you know what, she can go ahead and suffer and not.
Get the okay, and then okay, let me put let's push the red button. Ken is Ryan Gosling does deliver the most range of acting in the movie. I mean, yeah, he is the best supporting character, but he's the one who's like events are happening to him, and then he has he is the one most profoundly changed by his interaction with the real world coming back and then him you know, versus Barbie the Barbie's fight back, by the way, spoiler alert for all of this for everybody who is
not yet seen. But it's been several months, so I don't feel bad about it. And then you know, you know, they reached the equilibrium or whatever. Marcot Robbie is like the vehicle through which Ken has this like deeply emotional journey and all the other Kens within it. Sure, you know,
she definitely delivers a great performance and it's fun. Like, don't get me wrong, but that's why if you were to think just purely in terms of acting chops, not in terms of culture and all that, I think Gosling definitely did do a better job as an actor, or at least brought more to the role. That doesn't belie the production. The fact that Margot Robbie is I think she called Gretager away. She's the one who got this
script great, you know, script greenlit. She you know, helped with all that, and that's why she will share, you know, in that Oscar for the Best Picture and all that.
So anyway, what do you think, Emily, Yeah, no.
I agree, I would I would add to that. It's not just that Ryan Gosling. It's that the role that's is to the point Wheryan was making about Rainman, the role for Ryan Gosling was always going to be harder for him, Like it was just the way the script was written, the way that it turned out. It's just that was a harder role to play, and he did a great job. So I think Margot Robbie did a great job. I just think Goslin did a great job
in a harder role. And on top of that, I was thinking, as we were talking, how funny it must have been when the Academy got the nominations back and looked at this and was like, holy right, they are like oh no, like again, like this stuff is engineered until point, but it's still voted on. And just imagine them getting this back and looking at the bar prenominations and realizing it was just gostling for uh, I mean that's actually and Growing got slip.
Snopped, Maestro got nominated for Best Picture. What the hell are we doing here?
All right?
We like that is that movie is a travesty.
It's what happens when somebody gets way too famous, Bradley Cooper, and then people start writing way too big checks and we're all just go be like, oh my gosh, what a not tour film.
That's carbage A good example of a kind of movie that's just made for Oscars.
No literally, yeah, I mean I think it was made for that and also for Bradley coop ego And we're like, hey man, can you do like Silver Linings play Book again? Just like something that was actually good and it hasn't been for a long time.
All right?
So I think this brings our discussion on the whole Oscars you know what brew haha, to a close.
It will not stop, you know.
Can we imagine, like the acceptance speeches are going to be so insufferable if if Ryan Gosling changing the amount of like Greta, this run is really yours or some grand standing and all that. If this is what happens before, just imagine a night of you don't.
Think he's gonna win.
I don't think he'll win.
Who else is nominated, so we've got it? Yeah, go ahead.
Well, the Girlwigsund is interesting in the extent that the Academy has also been trying to bring those like quality blockbusters back in so like maybe not nominating like the dumbest Marvel movie or whatever, but also, I mean there are some good Marvel movies. Obviously Black Panther was competitive at the Oscars, but they're saying we were swinging way too.
Far in the direction like remember when they gave.
The Artist Best Picture, or when someone reminded me of today women Trump went berserk because Parasite won.
You just had that hilarious.
So they've been trying to actually reward movies that people are watching and enjoying, and so that's part of what's interesting about this too.
At the same time, there Gozzling's up against.
A lot of good performances this year, and I don't think he's quite going to cut it I could be wrong.
Us what I got in front of me Sterley Kate Brown for American Fiction. I haven't seen American fiction. Robert de Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon. He was incredible and Killers of the Flower Moon. Downey Junior for Oppenheimer, that's tough. I thought I didn't give a good performance, but honestly, I thought his entire arc of the film is bad. So it's like, yeah, but that part of the script for me drags tremendously.
We've got Oppenheimer this year.
This Academy is going to love up. The Academy is going to love Oppenheimer.
Ryan Gosling for Barbie, and then Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things. Haven't seen Poor Things? Our producer Griffin says, it's an incredible, incredible movie.
It's on my list.
I'm definitely gonna go and watch it before the Oscar season. Anyway, I think that brings us to a close. Guys, thank you for letting me hang out and crash.
Your show always was. I hope everybody enjoyed it.
We've got the discount going on if you can help support all of us, and I look forward to doing this again soon.