Hello, everybody, some major breaking news. It is about eight forty four pm here on the East Coast, and I can report to you that Donald Trump has officially won the New Hampshire GOP primary. The Associated Press, which is what we go off of, called the race for him a mere three minutes after the polls close at eight pm. To be fair, some of the polling places in New Hampshire closed at seven, so they were able to tabulate things before the official time came. But still pretty stunning
that they were able to do that. Nikki Haley, Actually one of the reasons I waited to do this is she gave a very early concession speech tonight where she says, well, we almost got half of the vote, almost, I think being the key thing there. But more importantly for our purposes, she says she's not going to be dropping out of the race. So just for tonight, you know, reminder, we're going to have a great show tomorrow morning with Ryan
Graham and Emily Jashinsky. I'll be at the desk with the three of them, will be going over all the results, the video, etcetera. You can tune in for that, but i'll give you some of my initial thoughts, just reactions that I wanted to share. So I'm gonna go ahead and try and put some of this on the screen
that you guys can see. Okay, So what we can see in front of us, as I said, is if some of the votes are still being tabulated here, Trump currently standing around fifty three point four percent, Nikki Haley at forty five point seven. The estimated margin of victory that we see is about Trump plus eleven roughly like that. So not the domination that he was able to demonstrate in Iowa, but this is still a head to head thing, and he's very likely to come out over fifty percent
or so. More importantly, though, what we can see from some of the counties and things that have come in so far is that you all of the areas which are colored in by red, either light or dark that I'm hovering my mouse over, those are the places that are in the more suburban and rural parts of the state.
Those are the places that are overwhelmingly going for Trump. Now, though, let's take something that's deep blue, and we can see that are areas with like hannover hand over as the perfect example, that is the most liberal place in the state. Of New Hampshire. I believe that's where Dartmouth College is actually located or somewhere nearby. So why would that matter, Well, that's where the vast majority of these college educated voters
would be. Another thing to keep in mind is that the New Hampshire primary allowed people who were not Republicans to actually register and be able to vote as long as they did so a couple of days ago, and from the overwhelming amount of data that we were able to see, a lot of Democrats decided to cross over and to vote for Nikki Haley, which definitely influenced her overall vote total. And also we had some people who
were undeclared and or undecided type voters. So all of these I think are pretty important data points, and things will be going over a lot tomorrow. But I think that's kind of like one of my major top line differences between this primary and Iowa and especially the Iowa CAUCUSUS.
This was major differences in the actual in the exit polling, for example, and we'll spend some time on this is for example, about two thirds of voters tonight in the state of New Hampshire said that they were not part of the MAGA movement, whereas the majority of Iowa caucus goers did say that they were part of the MAGA movement.
Similar whenever it came down to whether the election was stolen or not, all about forty nine percent of New Hampshire's GOP primary voters did say that the election was stolen, as opposed to only twenty nine percent for example with Iowa. So you can see it's skewed much more like a more moderate and or liberal direction. Of course, that it happens whenever you let moderate and or actual Democrats in or liberals vote in a GOP primary, so we can't
discount that. And also it demonstrates the long, hard road that Nikki Haley has ahead of her because even though the next state is about a month away, that's her own home state for the South Carolina that is not going to have the same level of dynamics that'll be
able to come and to save her. For those who were wondering, by the way, I can also report that the Democratic primary has officially been called by the Associated Press as well for Joe Biden, but we expected that the overall vote totals are just pretty unclear right now because all of those Biden votes were right ends, and obviously, you know, we're waiting to see which right ins were for Biden, which right in said cease fire approximately seventy
point eight percent of the tabulated votes so far, our quote unprocessed right INDs even though they can estimate that Joe Biden will win that Democratic primary, waiting to see what the overall vote total will be for Dean Phillips from Mary Ann Williamson for Vermin Supreme who we learned about today, who was on the show kind of in you know, just overall like kind of what I can see and what is kind of interesting from you know,
with the county by county is that same thing. You know, Biden just has a lot of dominance pretty much all across the state. But I mean that was likely and most likely accepted. So anyway, those are some of my
initial reactions. My real top line one is just you know, if I can hammer home anything else that I can, is that Nikki Haley is the candidate of the you know, the more college educated people who are more likely to you know, not vote for Trump and just vote for Biden crossover, and that's just not going to cut it in a GOP primary. I don't think I can say that enough, and it's going to be the dominant story I think as this we have this month kind of
twisting ahead of South Carolina primary. Although let me just say this too. Month is a long time is an eternity in politics, you know, who the hell know? Think about where we were a month ago in terms of if A. Kramaswami and all these candidates and some of the posturing and all that. So you know, look, Trump could literally you get of another charge against him, something could happen with the trial, or something could happen with Biden.
There could be a global conflagration. We have no idea, you know, and all of these have a huge impact on the race. So just keep that in mind as part of the reason likely you know that she has decided not to drop out of the race, and she's going to keep this thing going. And I'm excited, you know, to have all all of our analysis tomorrow on the show. So if you can become a Breaking Points Premium member, if you don't mind all of us stayed up, you know,
we'll be up late. We're past our bedtimes tonight. We're gonna be up bright and early tomorrow morning. Everybody's working overtime and we'll have a show for everybody on Thursday as well, So shout out to them breakingpoints dot com if you're able to take advantage of that, and I will see you all tomorrow. It's gonna be a treat.