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Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Krystal.
Indeed, we do big day for American domestic politics. Hard to believe, but the Iowa caucuses are today. The weather is absolutely horrendous everywhere, and so we'll see whether that's going to make a difference. We've got the very last iowall pull, the one that's considered to be the highest quality.
We'll break that down for you. Sagur and I've got our own predictions for what it's worth.
We're also taking a look at the way that Trump has decided at the very last moments here to go. After a veg Ramswami the Faik is responding in a very interesting fashion. Trump also This is kind of funny taking out ads against Nikki Haley on.
MSNBC Brilliant, which we will tell you it has turned.
Out a lot of our support is independence, but also some Democrats who may crossover. So we'll take a look at that. Ron DeSantis is receiving a participation trophy in Iowa. Let's see if he can surpass expectations and get back in the game. At the same time, we're also marking one hundred days of Israel's assault on Gaza. Will breakdown
the very latest from you. There some pretty stunning comments from Netanyahu about how this is our war toi and in line with that, we actually, it appears, have suffered our first casualties in that war in our.
Backing up of Israel. So a lot to break down for you there.
In the latest fallout from our strikes on Yemen, which occurred over the weekend, Sagartol is going.
To be taking a look at the case of a.
Journalist who died imprisoned in Ukraine without the American press or the American President saying.
A damn word.
So whether or not you agreed with this man and his used this was an American citizen who was basically killed in Ukrainian detention and went without a single word from anyone here in America.
It's a really tragic case. I'm going to break it down for everybody.
But before we get to that, you know, I guess I'm trying pivot to some positive things here. If this really is a fun kickoff for US actual twenty twenty four election season, We've got a discount going on for our yearly membership. We can put it up there on the screen, it's the election discount. You can take advantage of it at breakingpoints dot com to support all of
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Yeah, I guess we should also mention, Oh, that's right, because the weather.
Because of the weather, the Rfkjunior focus group that we had scheduled for this weekend has had to be postponed. It is still going to be in the works. We've got a tentative date rescheduled and all the participants lined up in whatever, so we will give that to you. But we didn't want to fly people out to Detroit in the middle of a snowstorm. Didn't seem like that was particularly didn't seem exactly prudent. There was like several
inches of snow, ridiculous wind, chill people. It wouldn't have even been safe for the participants to arrive.
Nobody would. Nobody would.
It's a whole thing we already has on the books, it's already been rescheduled. We're going to bring it to you as soon as possible, and we will tease those results as they come.
Huge developments with regards to Israel and the Gaza Strip. We have now passed one hundred days since October seventh, one hundred days of Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip. Let's go out and put some of the overall statistics
just so we have a sense. You know, Euromed monitor they've been tracking the number of deaths, the number of casualties, number of journalists killed, and they actually had a headline that in one hundred days of war there are one hundred thousand Palestinians who have either been killed, injured, or
who are missing. Now the top line members here in terms of killed, and they include in this number those who are presumed dead under the rubble, which is why their numbers a little higher than what you see like from the UN Thirty one thousand, four hundred and ninety seven killed, twelve thousand plus of those are children, six thousand plus of those are women, Some close to twenty nine thousand of those are considered to be civilians or
estimated to be civilians. You have nearly two million Palace Didians who have been displaced. The amount of destruction to buildings and civilian infrastructure in the Gaza strip is really, you know, difficult to comprehend. It's on the level has surpassed even the level of something like the Allied bombings
of Dresden. Nearly seventy thousand homes have been destroyed. Almost two hundred thousand homes have been partially destroyed, three hundred and twenty schools damaged, one thousand, six hundred and seventy one industrial facilities damage two hundred and thirty nine mosques damaged, three churches damaged, and you can see also the toll on healthcare, professional, civil defense workers and on the press, so horrific numbers.
This is as of January fourteenth.
So as of yesterday, any way that you put it. At the same time, you know something we have been tracking closely here, especially in the wake of that UN report, that half of all residents of the Gaza Strip, half of all Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are starving, and ninety percent have gone regularly gone days without having a single thing to eat. So that is the context for these videos. Let's put this up on the screen that
we can see. This is in northern Gaza. These are people who have come out effectively of hiding, risking their lives, trying to find food with the expectation that there is a food truck delivery. And you can see them all clustered here, and what happens the Israeli forces, the IDF begins firing on these people. That is why they are fleeing, as they are out risking their lives in an attempt just to find food and avoid starvation. So it is
truly a horrifying situation. Reminder, this is an official representative of the Israeli government of this agency called Kogat, which is responsible basically for coordinating humanitarian aid. This was a quote that this individual gave to Haretz, who said there is no hunger in Gaza. There were stockpiles of food in Gaza. Don't forget that this is an Arab Gazan population whose DNA is to hoard certainly.
When it comes to food.
So these are the sort of just like blatantly racist and denialist rhetoric that is coming out of official Israeli agencies with regards to the level of hunger sagur that is being experienced right now in the Gaza strip, which experts are saying the hunger and the disease may ultimately claim far more lives than the bullets.
In the bottom. I mean that's usually the case.
Actually, you know, think back to some of these conflicts, kind of tried and true strategy. I think the problem right now for the Israelis is that the more and more that this is happening is that they get claim it's in the.
Midst of a lot of the war.
So for example, you know, previously some of the numbers and all that you showed that was during actual like bombing campaigns. Now, as I understand that a lot of that has been reduced, I'm not saying it hasn't happened obviously, you know, these people were fired upon. But now we're getting into the big occupation questions. And while all of that happens and things shake out, there's all this reporting right now between the US and what they're exactly the
plan that they're trying to push it involve. It's a Kocamane scheme involving Saudi Arabia recognition, Palestinian statehood, American dollars, and much more. Is that this acute hunger situation is going to remain the biggest center of gravity, and it also will determine a lot of the follow on events, especially because they can't stop the images that continue to
come out. And I mean already we're seeing degradation kin to Mogadishu and Somalia, you know, back in the nineties, and the same problems are going to a rise that happened at that time. If everybody wants to remember, as we had a global crisis, you know, the Somalis that descended into complete civil war, and there are all these different warlords. The UN was trying to make inroads, and the entire US mission was to try and support the
World Food Program tended into Blackhawk down. Eventually we withdrew Somalia never really has been the same since the question two is hear about what is going to constitute in Gazli? Eventually this will consolidate and always does to control for resources. So will hamas you know, rise, Well, we have an insurgency that battles it out with another group. What about these Palestinian authority officials? Who's going to take you know, responsibility?
These Raelis themselves are going to remain like a security holding where they maintain obviously a blockade on some of the humanitarian aid and all that.
Maybe they'll cut a deal with a certain militia.
I actually think this is where things get more messy and more out of control than before. And and I mean we've been saying that now for quite some time. But the hunger situation, the food situation, and generally the questions around the big meta questions around occupation and who has administration and control for this is more terrifying as we move into like low grade more and low grade operations.
But at the same time, all things on the horizon say that a new Israeli military campaign may mount in the South. Yeah, and that could kick things off into actually a whole other direction.
Yeah, that's exactly right. Actually, if we could go ahead and put up on the screen that Wall Street Journal report about how the Israelis are planning to seize that last Gaza border that they don't control.
This is the Egyptian border, the Rafa.
Crossing that we have been discussing quite a lot, and this is okay. This is a problem for a lot of reasons. Number one, it is obviously a massive infringement on any sort of idea of Palestinian control of the Gaza strip. That's the number one, and that has long been mostly a fantasy anyway. It also is really infringing potentially on the sovereignty of Egypt, but also in terms of the humanitarian crisis. So after people were forced out of the north and the north was bombed to hell
in Gaza, they moved to the south. Many people move to con Unis was one of the major cities in the South that people moved to. What con Unis has now been bombed to hell and many people have fled from there as well, where have they gone. Over a million Gozzens, and remember there's only roughly two point two million gozens in total, are now clustered in Rafa, in the very place where the Israeli government and the Israeli
military are saying they are planning their next defensive. So we're hearing all this rhetoric about oh, we're shifting to another phase and it's going to be lower grade, et cetera, etc. We haven't really seen that, but this is a massive, massive risk. In this Wall Street Journal report, they say an offensive in the area will be complicated militarily due to the presence of more than a million Palestinians who have fled the rest of the Strip have concentrated in the area.
Most of them are.
Packed into the city of Rafa adjacent to the border, or camping in the areas along the border.
Even a limited.
Military operation occupies stretch of land a few hundred yards wide, would require Israeli forces to push through Rafa City, which straddles the border, and areas where the displaced people have gathered in tent camps. Security analysts are concerned such an operation would deepen the humanitarian crisis, so they are far from finished. All of these supposed US pressure, which has always been nothing but rhetorical, has obviously not shifted or changed their plans whatsoever.
Ye also appears crystal that this would be a violation of the nineteen seventy nine piece treaty between Israel and Egypt. They actually specifically in the treaty it limits the number of troops between the both nations in the border areas. The other problem is is that in terms of tunnels and all of that, I mean, this is the main way that weapons and all these other goods get into Gaza. It's like the number one highway for Hamas and all
of that. So theoretically, I mean, the fighting there could be worse and also is awful because you got and more of the civilians that are packed into the small area. And it is also you know, the main way that humanitarian aid has been getting into the Gaza strip the limited amount that's been let in, So it could be even further, you know, of a disaster. This one actually probably bears the most risk into a spillover conflict because it involves the Egyptians and the Egyptian military is already
not happy about this. They think that, I think correctly, that the likely they think that if all things, you know, we're able, if these rails will do whatever they want. They think that the Gosins would just be pushed out into Egypt, that Egypt does not want it. They say, they would literally go to war if something like that were to happen. So then the question is about US diplomacy and the pressure that we may exert on Egypt
and more. We don't know yet, you know, what this will look like and if this will even be allowed to proceed, you know, if there is some sort of risk of a broader war, or if they'll you know, openly continue the Middle Finger to America, continue anyway, and we could find ourselves in a serious situation, you know, even just as serious as the Red See which we have.
To talk about.
I mean, we're already in a broader war. It's just a question of how hot that is going to get. And just one note on the tunnels, because I know, like people understandably think about these as just like a nefarious way for Hamas to get weapons in et cetera. But keep in mind that for you know, years and years now, Israel has imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip and they have very precisely limited what goods are allowed to come in.
And it's not just like grenades.
That they block, Oh yes, it's things like potato chips and candy, and it's just completely at their whim what is able to come into the Gaza Strip through official channels. Previously, you know, they talked about putting them on effectively a starvation plus diet and controlling the caloric intake so that people would remain hungry, but not so bad that they would starve to death. That's a lot also of what's coming in through the tunnel, just so people are aware of, like the purpose of totality.
Defend the mass tunnels.
Actually, part of the problem with the tunnels was that because it was the only way to get stuff in. The way that these Hamask guys became phenomenally rich is that they control the black That's actually how they made the vast majority of their money was made on kind of controlling the racket in Gosil. You could, I mean the images of their houses and all that are now public.
You don't make that because you're smuggling in weapons. The weapons are what you're able to buy because you can smuggle in potato, chips and TV and in many cases like medicine and other things.
Building materials build after the various mowing of the lawn.
They're just like the Taliban. They're like a drug cartel or not.
They're like a criminal cartel that also happens to have like a militant arm. That's how they were able to maintain control for such a long time. And a large some of that was downstream of the blockade, which is part of the problem. And I think I think though, you know, they're going to go through and they're going to try and clear at least some of these tunnels, but you know, if and they haven't really done this yet, you know, in terms of tunnel clearing operations that a
lot of people expected. We will see if they're going to try and to take control, to seize control, because this continues to be probably the main way that you're able to have any sort of communication back and forth for the Hamas leaders to be able to get in and out and have any sort of mobility, at least it have been in the past, you know, including Iran and anything that they've been able to send to other
countries they've been able to support Hamas. So I'm not quite sure, you know, what it's going to look like, but it could be a nightmare.
It really could.
Yeah.
I mean, you know, we haven't yet seen some of the worst nightmares military scenarios play out with the tunnels and all that, but we could see it here.
It's possible.
I think it's also important to point out at this point, you know, one hundred days into the war, israel stated supposed goal of eradicating Hamas. By anyone's estimates, including their own very rosy estimates of how many Hamas fighters they've killed, nowhere close to achieving what they claimed their goal would
ultimately be. And now we've said from the beginning, you know, citing people who are military analysts who have studied these sorts of groups, that the idea of eradicating or eliminating Kamas was always sort of preposterous because in addition to the estimated thirty thousand fighters they have, which again Israel doesn't even claim that they've come close to or even
eliminated half of those Hamas fighters. In addition to that, this is a political system, it's a political ideology, and in fact, the more brutal israel Is, the more they starve people, the more they deny them medical care, the more kids you have getting amputations with no anesthetic, the more Hamas members you are creating, the more you are bolstering the Hamas ideology. And we have seen that very clearly with poles coming out of the West Bank. We've
seen it very clearly. You know, in terms of the limited information that we're able to get out of the Gaza strip that this has actually strengthened Hamas. So if you look one hundred days in Israel hasn't been able to rescue a single hostage. Actually, they murdered their forces, murdered three of their own hostages because they thought they were a Palestinians. The only hostage exchanges came during a ceasefire, and.
They were nowhere close.
In fact, they've gone backwards in terms of their stated end of eradicating Hamas. And at the same time, we we've always been directly complicit, We've always been supplying Israel, but we just keep getting pulled more and more and more directly into this war. And I do mean directly into this war. And I'll talk about some likely casualties that we have just suffered. But here is bb netan Yahoo telling it is really outlet. And this is going back to D three guys telling it is really outlet.
That when Tony Blinken, our Secretary of State, was there in Israel, he told him flat out that this is our war two which listen, frankly, looking at it, you can't really deny. Let's take a listen to that.
A few days ago I met the Secretary of State Blinken. I thanked him for the American assistance, and I said to him, we waged this war after these monsters butchered us.
We do not stop. We do not.
Stop until we eliminate the Ramas and bring back the hostages. And I also said, it's not just our war, it's your war as well. This is the war of the sons of light against the sons of darkness. This is against the axis of evil led by Iran and the Huthis and the Husbala and Haramas. And I added that I don't forget for one moment that in addition to the war in Gaza, in addition to bringing back their hostages and the inhabitants to their homes, both in the north and the South.
We have an.
Existential mission to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapon.
That's my mission, that's our mission.
And I said to the Secretary, blinking, this must be your supreme mission as well.
There is so much there to break down. I mean, first of all, just him blatantly saying this is our War II, which again I can't even disagree with at this point. Secondly, he is one of a number of Israeli officials who are thumbing their nose at the supposed concern that the Biden administration has expressed about the length of this war, about the indiscriminate bombing of this war, about the humanitarian crisis.
He says there.
Very clearly, we are going to do what we want to do. And finally, and he also talks again about the sons of light versus the suns of darkness. We see what the supposed sons of light have been doing to thousands and thousands, millions actually of civilians in the Gaza strip. And then he goes on to tell us what our foreign policy priorities should be with regard to Iran. Iran, who again, yes they have supported Humus, they were not involved in October seventh and bib. Netanyahu is here telling
us what our foreign policy priorities should ultimately be. So there is a lot there sager to take issue with, and also very know again, you know, in this day and age, they should probably realize that we hear them when they're speaking in Hebrew as well, and like there is an ability to translate here, but the fact that this is for a and israelly Hebrew language audience, he clearly thinks that he's able to sort of like keep this from the American public.
I mean, I think he's right.
If you look at the headlines across America today, it's going to be Iowa and it's going to be the blizzard, and that's what the vast majority of people are. How many people are going to listen to a translated version. Actually, when I was in Israel, one thing I did notice they watch a lot of news. There's a very news consuming public. So really yeah, it's it's I mean, it
makes sense. They're a nation like always either on the brink or currently involved in a war, so they're they're very closely monitoring.
It's much smaller, you know, more homogenous.
So anyway, my point being that there, he's much more likely to get his message across to the people he needs to save his ass and not get kicked out of office, as opposed to people who are in the US who have all kinds of different concerns. So I don't necessarily think it's probably you know, it's not the wrong move on his part because he's been able to basically get away with everything that he wants. The real question, you know, Chris, do we have the element from Axios? Yeah,
let's put it up there. Please fix on the screen that just demonstrates here, like kind of what what US policy towards us out It's as Biden is frustrated and running out of patients with Netanyahu, US officials tells me, I mean, it's just like the ninety ninth story, now, you know, leaking behind the scenes. At a certain point, either back in or don't. And this is where it's like, what are we doing here?
You know?
Are we you know, it's unequivocal support on the back end, but then always covering our ass in the press. Either call them out in public and pull the support and tell them to wrap it up, or back them one hundred percent, you know, honestly, but they're trying to have it both ways is just ridiculous.
In my opinion. I mean, really, what I think we need to do.
What I've seen in the past, now, what I've seen some even Obama people float is Biden needs to press for a change in government in Israel.
And look, I know that this, you know, sounds a.
Little bit like interfering, but at this point, you know, giving the intertwinement of the two governments, I think we should just make it clear, like, look, Bebet, we don't have any confidence in you. So it's like Israel, you guys can figure it out. But until we see long term change and you actually, you know, change your government, you have somebody who can speak properly on your behalf, then you know, us support it's just not going to happen for this interim peer because at this point, I
mean's just putting us in such a precarious position. We're about to talk now about the likely unfortunate casualties you know, already in a war they're suffering right now, and this is costing America billions of dollars, you know, from the shipping from I mean, look, I can add up the bill for all the bombs that we just put on Yemen, and it's probably well over one hundred million if we don't even include all the resources that we've deployed, and
just in general, like this was my same critique of Ukraine. Think about the amount of brain space that this takes up for the US military, for the American president, and for decision makers in Washington.
That is the most precious thing in the world. It's like, the entire.
World is currently revolving around this conflict, and it's like, if that's going to be the case, then like we should have less of impotent role I think in it.
Yeah, I would say so. I would say so.
I mean, I just can't with these endless pieces about how frustrated they are and how they're trying so hard behind the scenes, et cetera, et cetera. I want you to think about how completely bizarre this is that you have the president and his aides leaking to Axios that they are basically in disagreement with their own policy set by the President of the United States, right.
I mean, this is this president.
It's the one who has set no red lines, unconditional support rushing weapons bypassing Congress to rush these weapons, and the two thousand pounds bunk or buster bombs that are being dropped on civilians. So if you really are frustrated with the war effort, you sure have a funny way of showing it. It dovetails with this always frequent feigned Democratic Party impotence, like pretending like, oh, things are just happening and we have absolutely no control of them. No,
you set the policy, you set the strategy. You are the ones who have made it very clear that yes, you may do a little bit of hand ringing, but at the end of the day, you're going to give Israel, and you're going to give Natanna who every single thing that they want.
So of course they're not going to listen to you.
Of course, babe, he's going to go on Heybrew, you know, in Hebrew language, on Israeli news and be like, yeah, we told them we're not stopping. We're doing whatever the hell they want, and this is our war. And by the way, we think you should attack Aroun next. Like, of course he's going to feel entitled to do that
because that is the policy that you set. So to go to the press, and I have to say too, like these reporters just lay this out totally credulously based on you know, whatever it is that the officials are saying without providing any context that hey, if they actually had a problem with it, there are weapons. There are tools that we could use, including not shipping them the weapons that they want until they do the things that
you supposedly claim that you care about. But just to give you, you know, a very clear sense of how this is not at all dissonant. Bibe's policy is not at all dissonant with the Biden administration policy. The White House just put out their statement about one hundred days of war. How many times do you think they mentioned Palestinians? How many times?
Zero? Zero?
They did not mention Palestinians, the massive death, the hunger, the starvation. They did not mention it a single time. So, yes, if you're a bb Netanyaho, you're looking at that, you're looking at Joe Biden. Okay, he hung up on the phone with you in a huff twenty days ago.
Who cares? Who cares?
Soccer?
I thought there was an extraordinary quote in that Axios piece from Senator Chris van Holland, who is a totally like, you know, party supporting standard issue democrat, who says for now net now who appears more willing to listen to ben Gevier and Smotrich than to what the President of the United States says.
And it is no surprise why that would be.
First of all, he's ideologically aligned with that's number one. Number two is that they actually are willing to threaten to withhold their support, break up his coalition, and undermine his power base. So yeah, they have a lot more power and they have a lot more say. Even though the Biden administration would like to pretend there's some fringe voices irrelevant to the government, we have a democratic senator here who, by the way, was just in the region
who was saying, not the case, not the case. These people actually have a lot of influence, way more influence than the President of the United States is willing to exert.
Well, why wouldn't you have more influence like Biden is willing to back him, and that these people are actually control his political future. So I actually think it's quite of irrational move on his part. But listen, we're probably just not going to change anything about it.
So it is what it is. Yeah.
At the same time, there has been stunning revelations that two US Navy seals have been lost at sea in the near Yemen, off the coast of Somalia, in what has been described as a mission to essentially board ship at night and try to intercept weapons that they believed were going from Iran two Yemen. That piece has now been confirmed that that's the mission that they were on. Here is John Kirby getting asked about this.
Let's take a listen.
We receive that report about two Navy seals missing off the coast of Somalia. They were attempting to board a small ship believed to be carrying weapons from Iran to Yemen.
What is the status as far as we know that that search is still ongoing for those two sailors that are in the water, and we hope to.
Get some updated information today. But we're obviously watching this very closely.
This is directly related to what is going on.
This was not related to the strikes in Yemen, and this was normal interdiction operations that we've been conducting for some time to try to disrupt that flow of weapons supplies to Yemen.
So not related to the strikes that we took against the Hooties.
But still in this region, the Hootis, as you just mentioned there, say the motivation here is they're trying to get back at Israel's allies. That's a justification they're using for attacking some of these ships. Does the US assess that these coalition strikes will deter the Houthies or are you bracing for retaliation and an open ended conflict.
I think it'd be polyannish for us to think that there could or may not be some sort of retaliatory strike by the Hooties.
We're watching this very very closely.
We've taken the requisite necessary precautions in the region to make sure we're ready for that if.
That should occur.
These strikes were meant to disrupt and degrade their ability to conduct these strikes, and so we think that we had good effect on that. We're still assessing the battle damage assessment of those strikes, but we think we had good effect.
We'll see what happens. The Houthis have a choice to make here now, Margaret, and the right choice is to stop these reckless attacks.
And no matter what they say, this is not about punishing Israel. I mean, one of the ships they took a shot at yesterday was Panamanium flag that was taking Russian oil had nothing to do with Israel.
So it may be an open ended conflict. We don't know if deterrence has been established.
Nobody wants a conflict with the Hoothies. We're not looking for a conflict with the Yemen here. We're trying to get these attacks to stop.
So you can see there he tries to distance the mission that these Navy seals were on from our strikes on Yemen and on the Hoothys.
But these are very clearly.
Linkedinsc total bs.
I'm actually really upset about it because it's obvious. Look, you cannot tell me that these are normal operations. We don't normally have US Navy seals who are bound like boarding ships openly in the middle of Somalia with weapons bound for Yemen. This is obviously a new policy that was put into place as part of this so called coalition where we're trying to shop stop the weapon shipments from Iran to the Hoothies to prevent attacks in the
Red Sea. For some reason, this responsibility has wholly come upon the United States, even though this is supposedly a conflict that involves Israel. Okay, so now we're involved in it and now I mean, look, I hate to say it. These two Navy seals are lost its seede now for days in the middle of the ocean.
That is horrible.
I mean, I look, I hope, I hope to God that they are found alive. Imagine me the family members are to these guys, you know, and listen, they certainly like in terms of the mission and all of that. It's one of those where we have to think about what was the strategy, what were we actually doing here? This was involved to try and prevent weapons flows from Iran to the who these which are attacking ships. But the thing is is that all of that for the center of gravity is Israel and is Gaza, and you
know that's why you put it correctly. It appears that these are going to be the first direct look, I don't want to say casualty yet, the first at least like directly affected American soldiers, other American service members other than the ones who've already been attacked in Iraq and in Syria, ye who were directly involved in a combat operation or some sort of operation that was directly involved in the conflict here, which I look at this is really tragic.
I mean, these guys.
It's like, what a horrible, horrible situation for their command, for the people were involved, for their teammates, and for their families and everyone else involved, and we just have to think about, like what is actually going on here and what were these guys doing. And the truth is is that this was all because the Hoothies are attacking ships, which they say is because of the situation in Israel and in GODSLMA. I got no love for the Hoothies, and I got no love for anybody you know who's
attacking ships or anything other than that. If I thought that we could solve this problem by bombing, I'd be like, listen, one hundred percent. The issue is is that, as I said from day one, you know, the Saudi's bomb these people Kingdom come for nine straight years and lo and behold.
In the so called battle damage assessment, which I know we're about to get into Crystal, they said they only destroyed ten to twenty percent of their offensive capability, and that over eighty percent remains not only capable, but way harder to destroy because it's all mobilely launched, which means that.
We could be in a way worse situation.
I mean just today the news broke that the that there was a Yeah, the US has its shot down a hooty missile named a U aimed at a US Navy ship.
It only today this happened, and not in this case.
Listen, shooting in a Panamanian tanker carrying Russian oil whatever, all right, Like that's way less of our responsibility. This is at the USS Laboon, which is a US destroyer four forty PM yemen time anti ship cruise missile. These things are no joke. Luckily we have good defense. But what if it doesn't. You know, it only takes one and then we're in a whole other different situation. Yeah, that's what I worry about. That's what I worry about the most.
Well, and let's just put some more details up on the screen that we know is from the Washington Post. Everything we know about what happened with these Navy seals. And keep in mind, this is the official story right of what happened here. Who really knows? Okay, navy seals losses. See, we're searching for Yemen bound weapons shipment, so we have confirmation of what was being said there. It went around
near Somalia last week. They were dispatched to look for suspected Iranian weapons bound for militants in Yemen, which has become a staging ground for repeated attacks on commercial vessels in the Red See. The two service members who went missing were preparing to board the ship in rough seas when one of them slipped from roladder. The second sailor, seeing their comrade fall into the water, dove into help. The official set on the condition of anonymity to describe
early assessments. This occurred Thursday in the Gulf of Aden. They've been missing since Thursday. Guys not immediately clear whether other military personnel successfully boarded the ship, or if so, whether any Iranian made weapons were located. Again, I say this is the official stories that they fell into the water.
It is very possible that that is not actually what happened, but both the attempt to distance this action from the strikes, the bombings of the hu thies in Yemen, and also potentially you know, I don't know what actually happened here, but if they are lying and they were actually killed by Iranians and they're saying they fell into the water to avoid escalation, I support that lie. I'm just going to go ahead and say it straight up.
But well, I would support it for their family members. It's just one of the look, it's just it's awful because in I view, they are both trying to directly involve US soldiers you a service member, yes, in this, and then distance themselves from it when well, things go out. That's why you don't put our troops at risk unless
it's actually one hundred percent worth that. You don't send people to go and board a ship unless you're like, unless you know it's for something that directly involves us, which is really important to our overall security.
Well, obviously the reason I say that is just because I want to avoid war with a rob I want to avoid that escalatory spiral that you're talking about that we are dramatically at risk of because because of what Israel is doing in Gaza. I mean, all of these reports act like this is just happening out of nowhere, and again like we're powerless to stop it or do
anything about it. When there was a ceasefire, this all stopped the attacks on our service members in a rock that almost killed them by the way, we came this close. It hit a military barracks where they were sleeping and by the luck of God, the universe, whatever you want
to say, thankfully they were not killed. Okay, these attacks in the Red Sea dramatically decreased, because this all stems from conflict that we are directly involved in, regardless of what Joe Biden wants you to believe in the handwringing reports that they released to the press.
So what the hell are we doing here?
I ask again, let's go ahead to E four, guys, so we can see this strategy. Even if you want to say, like, okay, you know it's we're not going to call for a cease fire, so I guess we have to bomb the houthis what are we even doing here when it didn't even work? The New York Times is reporting their offensive ability remains intact after the US led air strikes, so it's not like we even were effective at degrading the Hoothy capabilities to continue to strike.
So there's that you also have. We can skip ahead to E seven. You have even the Rand Corporation before this happened, saying that this is an absolutely foolish strategy. One of their analysts wrote this for a magazine here, saying, don't bomb the hoofies because.
It's not going to work. It's not that they're opposed.
The Marine Corporation famously like hawkish, but they say this is decades of experience have shown military efforts to just lodge the hoovies are unlikely to be effective. Like if bombing the houthies would work, as Sager has said it said in the past, they would already be gone like that would be done and finished. The Saudis have been bombing them for quite a while now to little impact. If anything, this bolsters their hand domestically because it is
a uniting issue. The support for Palestinians is a uniting issue within Yemen. There were huge, huge demonstrations in the Yemeni capital of Sanna after the US struck these sites in Yemen. By the way, let's put this next one up on the screen from Ryan Peterson after the US and UK navies launched missile attacks on land based Hoothy targets and Yemen. Instead of setting a signal the Red Sea is now safe for ships. This morning, sixteen more vessels that had been en route to transit the Red
Sea had instead diverted around Africa. So congratulations, you made the shipping situation worse. You made it worse because guess what, guys, do you really want your containership to go through what is now an active war zone thanks to the US in the UK. So you didn't degrade their capabilities, You've made the shipping situation worse and put E nine up on the screen.
By the way, oh, oil.
Prices went up after our strikes on the hoo Thies, So way to go, guys, brilliant, brilliant strategy. You've done nothing but put US service members at risk. You've done nothing but expand the danger of this war and the possibility of greater conflagration. You have made the shipping situation worse, and you caused oil prices to go up. Brilliant fricking strategy, guys.
Way to go.
Yes, teams are the only ships left in the red or US Navy ships, US or UK ships. I should laugh, but it's not funny because there now they're getting fired on as of literally this morning, and just that anytime look low grade situation. This is the thing about asymmetric warfare is we quote unquote destroy whatever ten to twenty percent, and if anything, whatever you hit first is usually the easiest stuff to hit, which is whatever comes tax is
way harder to hit. It's just like the North Koreans anybody else with who wants to display asymmetric power.
What do you do?
You make it difficult, and so you other camouflage. You put it on the back of a truck and you move it around. And with modern you know, technology involving attack drones as we've seen from the hooties and with the missiles, you can have a pretty significant impact for not that much money. So, if I've said it too, you can solve this one way. Militarily you have to occupy yemit. I don't want to do that. I don't
think that's worth it at all. There's another way, which is we could have diplomacy as this we're actually recommend you read that, you know, the Rand article because it's in Foreign Afairs magazines. Well it is, and she points out, you know everything that I've talked about before about the bombing campaign and about previously about how if there's militarily capable we talked about this already too with Gaza now
for like one hundred days. Literally at this point, I'm like, listen, if it was easy to if we were gonna win a war for the populace destroyed insurgency with bombing alone, then we would have come out Vietnam as the greatest victors of all mankind. It turns out it's a lot more difficult than that. Yeah, the issue, you know is the same thing you know here. But look, I think, look, we really could be, you know, near breaking point, as you say, because what we are waiting and looking for
is a conflagration type event. The Red Sea, like the initial bombing may be that not going to set it off, and if anything, it may not even happen Crystal, It may not even happen in Yemen. Yemen is just the latest indicator of the fortieth order consequence of destabilization. It could happen with the Rafa military operation we just talked about. Do you remember early on in the war when Israeli tank actually fired on Egypt and everyone just kind of looked the.
Other way, They apologize, They're like, oh, we're really starry.
I mean, that was serious, that was serious business. It's you know, this is what I keep saying. It only takes one thing. Two navy seals here likely you know, they're missing. You know, hopefully we are able to find them, but who knows. The US is clearly going to try and.
Cover that up.
But what if there's one more what if we you know, like you said, barracks. God, hey, can you imagine a scenario where five US service guys are killed in the barracks in Iraq?
That's I mean, what's going to happen.
There's also people, forget this, there is a peace process going on inside Yemen.
They're also I don't know if people know this.
The Iraqi Prime Minister and the US right now are in major negotiations or we're keeping our troops actually in the region. The Biden administration wants to stay. The Iraqis want us out.
We'll see.
I mean, I want us out too, but obviously they you know, they're trying to keep us in.
Who knows what that situation will look like like. There's big diplomatic problems.
I think all over Saudis are very unhappy with these strikes on Yemen because, yeah, they were in the middle of a peace process and trying to resolve this conflict and not have endless war.
And this is before we even mentioned the.
Fact they didn't seek congressional authorization. The strikes are illegal, Biden's being criticized, but we're actually on Rocana on tomorrow to talk about this aspect as well. But even if you don't care about that, if you don't care about the Constitution, you don't care about striking them a sovereign nation, if you even put all of that aside, like it is a stupid strategy that has already failed and backfired.
So, you know, brilliant work, guys. Way to go.
Hey, guys, we actually are running into a bit of a scheduling thing.
We've got an interview that we have to do and we don't want the show to be too late, So my monologue will post later today sometime on YouTube, and we'll tack it onto our podcast maybe tomorrow. So just excuse the scheduling thing. We've got a lot going on
here with all of that. But otherwise, we will have a breaking news tonight about Iowa, and then we will also have a show early for you tomorrow morning with Ryan and Emily here at the desk, will break everything down about what happened with the results of the Iowa caucuses, and we'll see you all then