Welcome to brain Stuff from How Stuff Works, Hey, brain Stuff, Lauren vogelbamb here. Voting is the ultimate popularity contest in the United States. Voters have the opportunity at least every two years to cast ballots in federal elections, either filling seats in the U. S. House of Representatives, the U. S. Senate, or the White House, but operating non stop between those elections is a political prognostication machine designed to predict the
next batch of winners. There are at least a dozen major polling organizations who quiz Americans on a daily basis about their approval or disapproval of current officials, their opinion on the latest hot button political issues, and whether or not the nation is on track or off the rails.
There's a lot at stake in these polls. Political donors use them to decide which candidates and political issues to bankroll, and savvy congressional representatives consult them to calculate the political risk of backing or splitting with the White House on its legislative agenda. But the polling number that grabs the
most headlines is the president's job approval rating. For example, back in March, President Donald Trump tweeted about being proud of having, according to Rasmusen reports, a job approval rating of around even though russ Musen's approval members on that particular day were only for The reason the president was tweeting in March about his rounded up approval ratings and the reason that democratic political pundits rushed to correct him is that job approval ratings are about more than just
stoking or bashing the president's ego. They are perhaps the best single predictor of who will win the mid term elections in November. Midterm elections happen exactly two years after each presidential election and almost always pose a serious challenge for the party in the White House. The president's political party has lost seats in the House of Representatives and all but two midterm elections since World War Two. The exceptions were Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in two
thousand two. What's interesting is that the severity of the mid term losses appears to be directly related to the popularity of the president. Gallup reported in that when post war presidents had approval ratings of fifty percent or above at the time of a midterm election, their party only lost an average of fourteen seats in the House, but if they had an approval rating of forty nine percent
or lower, the average loss was thirty six seats. Using more recent data from nineteen seventy fourteen, Bloomberg put the average loss at just thirty three seats for presidents with approval ratings under fifty percent. But either way you slice it, that's significant. There have been some exceptions, however. Ronald Reagan had an approval rating of sixty three percent in nineteen eighty six and his party still lost five seats in
the mid terms. And on the other side of the aisle, John F. Kennedy had a sixty one percent approval rating in nineteen sixty two and still lost four seats. The connection between presidential job approval and midterm elections is particularly strong during the first midterm election after a new president takes the White House. Punditcy those first mid terms largely
as a referendum on the president's job performance. That's why Democrats made such a big deal about the March thirteenth special election in Pennsylvania, where their candidate won by the slimmest of margins in a region that went heavily Republican. In twenty sixteen. They point to it as a sign that Trump's poor job performance and low approval ratings will lead to a blue wave of Democratic victories later in
twenty eighteen. But what about presidential elections. Does it incumbent's job approval rating make or break his chances of winning re election? The short answer yes. Since World War Two, not a single incumbent presidential candidate has won re election with a job approval rating below fift Barack Obama almost became the exception in twenty twelve, with an approval rating in the mid forties a few months before election day, though by November it had cleared the hurdle at fifty
one percent. But does that mean that if Trump's approval rating continues to languish below fifty over the next two years that he will deafly lose the reelection? In absolutely not Many things about the Trump presidency to phi president. For example, Trump was elected in ten despite being the
least liked major party presidential candidate of all time. His unfavorability rating on election day was a whopping However, his primary opponent, Hillary Clinton, had the second highest unfavorability rating in history. At further Complicating matters is that not every job approval poll comes up with these same numbers. That's
because each polling organization uses a slightly different methodology. Some posters, like Gallop call up a representative sample of Americans over the age of eighteen and simply ask them if they approve or disapprove of the president's job performance. In Trump's case, those polls result in lower approval and higher disapproval numbers. But rasp Musin reports only counts answers from likely voters, or people who say that they're likely to vote in
the next election. Rest Music and is also the only company pulling people on a daily basis, and they give respondents for options strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, and strongly disapprove. In Trump's case, the inclusion of somewhat approved seems to be enough to lift his rasp Musin approval numbers as many as ten points higher than other major national pollsters. Today's episode was written by Dave Ruse and
produced by Tyler Clang. For more on this and lots of other popular topics, visit our home planet, how Stuff Works dot com.