This week Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to look ahead to the UK Spring Budget on 6 March. While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may decide to reduce some taxes, the country's modest fiscal headroom means there is little likelihood of a dramatic financial policy change. Elsewhere, they discuss personal consumption expenditure data in the US, and inflation figures from Europe. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode o...
Feb 29, 2024•18 min
This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam discuss their views on policy developments in UK and European bond markets. In the former, fiscal headroom may not have a dramatic affect on gilt issuances, even as the market is becoming more retail friendly. In Europe, the European Central Bank is growing wary of cutting rates too early, while PMI data suggests a deviation between German and France economic expectations. And how are retail issuances performing in Italy? Remember to hit ‘subscribe...
Feb 22, 2024•19 min
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam debrief after a big data week in the UK and US and discuss the impact on our rates outlook. They also take a closer look at some new thinking published this week around the ECB’s operational framework. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 15 February 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glo...
Feb 15, 2024•28 min
This week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss how their views on the market differ from the businesses they have been speaking with recently. In the UK, the data appears to support our modestly hawkish view, while in the US non-farm payroll data suggests the Fed will hold rates for now. In Europe, could French sovereign spreads be too tight, and Spanish too wide? For Italy, it's all about risk. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest epi...
Feb 08, 2024•27 min
Major central banks have been somewhat taciturn about the prospect of rate cutting, so did that change during the past week? Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam analyse recent events, data and market views in a week when the Fed and the Bank of England held rates - and explained their decisions to do so. In Europe, inflation appears to be falling faster than the European Central Bank's projections suggested, while German and Italian syndications caught many by surprise. Might Spain and...
Feb 01, 2024•26 min
Join host Imogen Bachra, dovish Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the effect that central bank moves are having on bond markets. In Europe, markets seemed to have reacted strongly to a somewhat benign meeting at the European Central Bank, while in the US, all eyes are on the Fed's meeting next week. Could we see a substantial change in the policy statement? In the UK, meanwhile, all eyes are on how markets may respond to the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Remember to hit ‘s...
Jan 25, 2024•22 min
Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how recent jobs and inflation data is affecting markets. In the UK, slightly higher than expected inflation news spurred a sell-off in bonds, while in the US, there was some strong consumer news to contend with. It's been relatively quiet of late in Europe, but there is some speculation that the European Central Bank is becoming less dovish. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode ...
Jan 19, 2024•28 min
Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they analyse the back and forth of market moves and central bank motions over interest rates. In the US, how will Quantitative Tightening sit with rate cutting? They also discuss the fiscal situation ahead of a likely election in the UK, while in Europe the overall monetary picture is becoming more dovish, amid record levels of supply. Remember to hit 'follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwes...
Jan 12, 2024•24 min
Join Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they examine how markets started 2024. In the US, the Fed is not giving out much new information of when interest rate cuts may begin, though it has released some more detailed notes on quantitative tightening and balance sheet rundown. In the UK, what's driving weakness in gilts, and may stickier core inflation still keep rates higher for longer? In the EU it's arguably a simpler picture, with markets poised for cuts from the European Centra...
Jan 05, 2024•31 min
The Bank of England (BoE), the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) shocked few by collectively holding rates this week, but that doesn’t mean the meetings were without their surprises. Join host Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss how markets reacted to the news, and identify signs of when rates may begin to fall. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to ...
Dec 14, 2023•28 min
...well, maybe not so great, but this week Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam discuss the market mood ahead of announcements by all three of the major central banks: the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. Elsewhere they talk about events in money market funds and the importance of the overnight rate. Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes a...
Dec 07, 2023•28 min
Join host Imogen Bachra and guests Jan Nevruzi and Joann Spadigam as they discuss signs that some central banks may cut their base rates sooner than expected. Could the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) do this as soon as March 2024? Faster falls in inflation in the US and the eurozone raise the possibility. But in the UK? Not so much. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find...
Dec 01, 2023•16 min
Join host Imogen Bachra and guest Joann Spadigam as they discuss how customers have responded to our Year Ahead 2024 report, and analyse the contents of the Autumn Statement. Elsewhere they also look at supply data in the eurozone. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or emai...
Nov 23, 2023•22 min
The expected divergence of monetary cycles presents both challenges and opportunities for fixed income investors and issuers, especially at a time when fiscal policy remains abundant. Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Jan Nevruzi outline where they see policy rates heading next year, what this means for the direction of travel for yields and the shape of the curve, and where cross-market opportunities lie. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode ...
Nov 15, 2023•38 min
fter softening employment data was released in the US, host Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi analyse how markets have been reacting to both this news as well as to other events. In the UK, there are expectations for the Autumn Statement to contend with, while in the euro area, markets are pricing close to 100bps for cuts. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 9 November 2023.For any terms used please ...
Nov 09, 2023•23 min
As both the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) held rates this week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to pick over the actions, motives and views held among central banks. How are markets reacting and are worries being alleviated? In Europe, rate cuts may come earlier than previously expected. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have an...
Nov 02, 2023•25 min
Fresh after this week's European Central Bank meeting, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk all things rates, bonds and balance sheets. As it turns out, many of the market dramas in recent months have somewhat dissipated, whether that's in the euro area, the UK or the US. So are we in for an extended period of rate holds? Only time, and more importantly data, will tell. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re availa...
Oct 27, 2023•26 min
Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Jan Nevruzi catch up after another volatile week in rates markets. They digest some of the latest data prints and discuss the potential impact on key central bank decisions in the weeks ahead. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bo...
Oct 19, 2023•27 min
Amid broad consensus that base interest rates have neared their peaks, focus is on when central banks will begin to cut, and by how much. Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi are joined by special guest Ross Walker to discuss rates, economics and yields in the UK, the euro area and the US. Remember to hit follow so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. NB: This was recorded on 12 October 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://w...
Oct 12, 2023•21 min
Bond yields have risen in the past week, especially at the shorter end of curves. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss whether current levels will persist, especially in the UK. Elsewhere, German bunds have hit our 3% target, and in the US can markets price in messages coming from the Fed? Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you hav...
Oct 05, 2023•20 min
The bonds markets have been a bit wild of late, leading to some speculation about oversupply in the market for US treasuries and others to look closely at the euro area market. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss the effects on both the front and tail ends of yield curves, minimum reserve requirements and developments at the Bank of England. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ bu...
Sep 28, 2023•20 min
Neither the Fed or the Bank of England increased rates this week, after last week's dovish hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to discuss the impact of these hawkish holds on markets and the extent of possible cuts in 2024. Will the narrative of 'higher for longer' be challenged? And how may the central banks reduce their balance sheets? Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re availab...
Sep 21, 2023•22 min
On the back of the European Central Bank's "dovish hike", host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to discuss the impact on markets, and whether the Fed and the Bank of England may follow suit. Behind the question of whether interest rates have hit their peak is how prolonged that peak may be. Will sharp rises be matched by precipitous falls to create an Everest-like trend of rates? Or will the peak really be a plateau that more resembles Table Mountain? Remember to hit '...
Sep 14, 2023•27 min
Following a three-week summer break, Bondcast is back. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi to catch up on what happened while we were away. Looking ahead, they discuss prospects for next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, changes in the US yield curve, and how many times the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes refer to wage growth – which is a lot. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ...
Sep 07, 2023•25 min
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Giles Gale, and Jan Nevruzi debrief after yet another base rate hike from the Bank of England. They also discuss US bond supply, inflation dynamics in Europe – and the impact on fixed income markets as we move through the final weeks of summer. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ so you can watch our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answere...
Aug 03, 2023•26 min
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale take stock of the latest rate hikes from the Fed and the European Central Bank and discuss the trajectory for rates going forward. They also look ahead to the Bank of England meeting in the week ahead. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podca...
Jul 28, 2023•28 min
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigm, and Jan Nevruzi discuss the impact of the recent downside UK inflation surprise on the fixed income outlook. They also take a closer look at what markets should expect from the upcoming European Central Bank and Fed meetings. Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered o...
Jul 21, 2023•18 min•Ep. 126
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Jan Nevruzi, and Giles Gale discuss our latest views on inflation and potential implications for the fixed income outlook in the months ahead. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email bondcast@natwest.com. NB: This was re...
Jul 13, 2023•28 min
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Kevin Cummins, and Giles Gale discuss shifting rate hike expectations in the UK, the impact of the latest US data deluge on market expectations, and potential fixed income market risks to look out for in Europe as we move into summer. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the ...
Jul 06, 2023•30 min
In the latest episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam examine central bankers’ comments in Sintra, Portugal. They also discuss the flattening of yield curves in the UK and look at how markets reacted to new employment data in the US. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ so you can watch our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out dire...
Jun 29, 2023•21 min
