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BMO Views from the North

BMO Capital Marketsbmocm.com
BMO’s Canadian Rates Strategist, Ben Reitzes hosts roundtable discussions offering perspectives from strategy, sales and trading on the Canadian rates market and the macro economy. To listen to more great episodes visit http://bmocm.com/ViewsFromTheNorth For legal disclosure, visit http://bmocm.com/macrohorizons/legal
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Episodes

Is It Cheap Enough Yet?

In this episode, Chris D’Onofrio, one of BMO’s Canadian dollar swap trades, joins me to discuss the outlook for the Bank of Canada, whether the front end has cheapened enough, and the potential path for the yield curve and swap spreads. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Jul 17, 202528 min

Canadian Housing: The End of an Era

In this episode, Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, joins me to share his insights on the state Canadian housing market, the fundamental drivers, regional differences, how much further prices might have to fall, and where the market is heading over the coming years. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Jun 19, 202524 min

It's All About Inflation

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO’s OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to discuss the Bank of Canada’s decision to stay on hold this week, where monetary policy is headed for the rest of 2025, and the bigger picture for inflation and interest rates. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Jun 05, 202529 min

Capital Flows in a Time of Stress

BMO hosted its 12th annual Government, Reserve & Asset Managers Conference last week in Toronto. I had the privilege of moderating a panel titled "Capital Flows in a Time of Stress". The panel featured Manmit Pandori, MD, Head of Tactical & Accrual Trading at BMO CM, Avi Hooper, Senior Advisor at ABP Invest, and Matthew Emde, Director General, Funds Management, Government of Canada. This episode of Views from the North is a recording of the panel that was held on the morning of May 8th. ...

May 15, 202532 min

Won't Get Fooled Again

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO’s Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the ongoing tariff drama, last week’s Bank of Canada decision to pause and whether more rate cuts are coming, how uncertainty is impacting investors, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Apr 24, 202530 min

A Brave New World

In this episode, Manmit Pandori, head of tactical and accrual trading at BMO, joins me to discuss President Trump's tariff announcement, the financial market reaction, how the macro backdrop might unfold, and how he is managing risk in this highly volatile and uncertain world. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Apr 03, 202527 min

Consequences

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO’s Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss this week’s hot CPI report and whether everyone (including the Bank of Canada) has inflation wrong, how fiscal policy could evolve over the coming year, the outlook for interest rates and opportunities in the bond market. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Mar 20, 202534 min

Cutting Through the Noise

In this episode, Chris D’Onofrio, one of BMO’s Canadian dollar swap traders, joins me to discuss the on again/off again tariff threats, swap spreads, the upcoming Bank of Canada policy announcement, and his favourite trades. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Feb 27, 202528 min

Much Ado About Tariffs

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO’s head of FICC Investor Sales Canada, joins me to discuss the wild events of the past week, how tariffs could evolve, and what it could mean for the Bank of Canada. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Feb 06, 202525 min

Positively Politics, Featuring the Honourable Scott Brison

In this episode, the Honourable Scott Brison, BMO Vice-Chair and a former Member of Parliament, joins me to discuss Canada’s political backdrop. Scott outlines the current state of the government amid President Trump’s tariff threats, his experiences with some of Canada’s key political figures ahead of what could be a spring election, and what’s needed to improve persistently weak productivity. Following the interview with Mr. Brison, I provide a quick take on my expectations for next week’s Ban...

Jan 23, 202551 min

Welcome to 2025

In this episode, Andrew Wallace, part of BMO’s Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss what he’s focusing on in the coming year, the extreme cross-market richness of GoCs and when the tide could turn, and opportunities in the bond market. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Jan 09, 202530 min

Cross-Border Quarters

In this episode, Matthew Baird, part of BMO’s institutional fixed income sales team in Vancouver, joins me to discuss what to expect from next week’s Bank of Canada policy announcement, the North American fiscal backdrop, the outlook for 2025, and our favourites trades as we head into the New Year. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Dec 05, 202432 min

What Trump 2.0 Means for Canada

In this episode, Douglas Porter, BMO’s Chief Economist, joins me to discuss how President-elect Trump’s return to the White House could impact the Canadian economy, the outlook for the Bank of Canada, interest rates and the Canadian dollar as we head into an uncertain 2025. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Nov 14, 202426 min

Veni, Vidi, Fifty

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO’s OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to break down this week’s 50 bp rate cut from the Bank of Canada, whether more super-sized cuts should be expected, the extent of Canada-US policy divergence, and views on the market as we head toward year-end. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Oct 24, 202431 min

That's Not a Cut, This Is a Cut

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO’s Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the impact of the latest GDP figures on the outlook for Bank of Canada, the coming changes to mortgage insurance regulations, investors’ views on duration, why provincial spreads look attractive, and our favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Oct 03, 202427 min

Terminal! Terminal! Terminal!

In this episode, Chris D’Onofrio, one of BMO’s Canadian dollar swap traders, joins me to discuss last week’s Bank of Canada rate cut, terminal rates and where markets might be mispricing the outlook for monetary policy, and whether swap spreads will remain under pressure. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Sep 12, 202434 min

Back to School, Back to Work

With the kids heading back to school, while we just keep on working, I’m joined by Sam Buckley, Head of BMO’s Government of Canada trading desk, to discuss what to expect at next week’s Bank of Canada policy announcement, his thoughts on the yield curve, and opportunities for the rest of 2024. As always, feedback is welcome.

Aug 29, 202420 min

Keep It Simple

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO’s head of FICC Investor Sales Canada, joins me to discuss the path for the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve, where terminal might be and how that could impact the yield curve, and provincial credit spreads. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Aug 01, 202427 min

The Squeeze

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO’s Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the surprisingly firm May inflation figures, the impact on the Bank of Canada, and the global financial market backdrop. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Jun 27, 202429 min

One Down, Two to Go?

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO’s OIS and cross-currency traders, joins me to discuss last week’s Bank of Canada 25 bp rate cut, the potential extent of BoC/Fed divergence and how that could impact the C$, and cross-currency market dynamics and opportunities. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Jun 13, 202432 min

It's Cuttin' Time!

In this episode, Chris D’Onofrio, one of BMO’s Canadian dollar swap traders, joins me to discuss our expectations for the June Bank of Canada policy announcement, the takeaways from our recent marketing trip to London, and structural flows that continue to drive the rates market. As always, all feedback is welcome.

May 23, 202428 min

A Different Perspective

In a first for Views from the North, I had the pleasure of speaking with TJ Sutter, Co-Head & Macro Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income, at CCL Investment Management. We discuss his process when evaluating markets, views on the state of the economy and markets, and where potential opportunities might lie. As always, all feedback is welcome.

May 09, 202429 min

Budget Bingo: Winners and Losers

This week Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, Fred Nastos, Head of Government Spread Trading and Adam Whitlam from our Canada institutional sales desk, join me to share their thoughts on the provincial & federal budgets, the potential impact of policy measures on markets, how the Bank of Canada outlook changes, and their latest market insights. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Apr 18, 202435 min

Decidedly Undecided

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO’s Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss next week’s Bank of Canada policy announcement, the recent sell off in rates, broader economic backdrop, and uncertainty weighing on markets. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Apr 04, 202427 min

Nobody Said It Was Easy

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO’s head of FICC investor sales Canada, joins me to discuss the lack of conviction keeping the rates market constrained, last week’s Bank of Canada policy decision, the ramifications from provincial budget season, and how RRBs aren’t dead. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Mar 14, 202423 min

Just Be Long

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO’s Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the current state of the rates market following the wild swings in recent weeks, his views on credit markets, potentially impactful market events over the next month and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Feb 15, 202425 min

Hopeful on Housing

In this episode Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, joins me to share his insights on the outlook for the Canadian housing market, reaction to last week’s Bank of Canada policy announcement, and his thoughts on the upcoming provincial budget season. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Feb 01, 202425 min

Not So Fast

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO’s OIS and cross-currency traders, joins me to discuss next week’s Bank of Canada policy announcement, how this week’s inflation and Business Outlook Survey impact policymakers, when the first cut might come, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Jan 18, 202423 min

Too Far, Too Fast?

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO’s Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss next week’s Bank of Canada policy announcement, the December index extensions, what to look for in 2024, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

Nov 30, 202333 min

Who to Believe?

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO’s head of FICC investor sales Canada, joins me to discuss the ongoing volatility in fixed income markets, what risk assets are telling us, whether central bank are really done with hikes and his favourite trade ideas as we head into calendar year end. As always, all feedback welcome.

Nov 16, 202322 min
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