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As we talk constantly, it seems about the affordability crisis here in this country. Everything is getting more expensive, including travel, and this morning our top story another one hits the dust. Spirit Airlines has ceased operation and grounded its fleet following a collapse of that final federal bailout proposal.
This morning, Transportation sectory Sean Duffy taking to social media stating the Department of Transportation is working with major US carriers including United, Delta, Jet Blue, and Southwest to cap ticket prices for stranded Spirit Airlines passengers, while others offer reduced fares and employee support Following service disruptions joining us now. Jeff Mason, our White House correspondent, back with us on set, along with the Points Guy, Managing editor Clint Henderson, and
Patrick Dehan had patrolling analysis for Gas Buddy. As Lisa mentioned just a moment ago, this is a fuel story, very much of fuel story, so we'll get into both how that's affecting air travel and cars and trucks as well. Jeff Mason, let me start with you and just get your perspective on how this fell apart. We heard the President yesterday as he made his way from the White House to Florida, indicating that this deal wasn't dead. He was waiting to see I guess what was on the table.
And then around three o'clock this morning we heard from Spirit that they were in fact closing their doors. What happened between when he was walking outside the White House in the Rose Garden to when we got that announcement early in the morning today.
Well, I think it sounds like it just didn't turn out to be a good enough deal for the government and the President, as we've talked about before, likes to describe himself as a deal maker. He wrote a book about being a deal maker. It's something that's actually hanging over the Iran war right.
Now as well.
He wants a good deal and it just wasn't a good enough deal for him, which is actually sort of understandable, because running an airline is not easy, and not just running the airline, but the financials of this particular airline were obviously so poor that it's now gone out of business, and it just didn't turn out to be what they wanted.
From the federal.
Side, we're talking about the constraints of trying to run a budget airline in this country versus europe. Negotiations with really only one pilot's union drives up costs, and then of course fuel is the big cost, and it's hard to do trying to.
Keep those prices low.
Speaking of Clint, I want to ask you, if you are a consumer and you liked this budget airline option, where are you going to notice this the most, Which routes are going to take a hit, and how many passengers have any idea how many people are currently stranded or without flights.
We don't know the exact number of stranded passengers, but I will say all the major airlines have stepped up to offer these rescue fares.
So that's really encouraging to see.
I know, American, Delta United, everyone's offering to help out stranded passengers here. You know, as far as it goes with pricing in any market that Spirit was operating, you're going to see fares jump almost immediately. We saw Spirit pull out of Minneapolis not too long ago, and Delta race fares almost immediately by a substantial margin.
So that's why, you know, we all love to hate Spirit, but.
You're really going to hate it when they leave markets like Orlando for Lauderdale, you know, places where they drive costs down, you're going to see prices really spike.
Yeah, earlier I was referring it to it as the waffle House of the air To be clear, I like waffle House. I'm a big waffle House fan. Sometimes it hits the spot, and with Spirits sometimes you just needed to get there, and now that's one less option.
I guess Clint I was asking Jeff about the kind of political nature of all of this, how the president was looking at this perspective. Deal take us behind the scenes at this company. This is an airline that had gone through two Chapter eleven filings in the last year. I guess was retaining some optimism here that it could
make it through this latest stretch. How much of this its decision to close down, is attributable to just general problems within the company or are is it attributable to just the fact that fuel prices have gone up as much as they have recently.
Look, the cost of jet fuel was the nail on the coffin. But the truth is Spirit has not really been a profitable company for half of a decade now. So my fear is that this is not just a Spirit problem. This is a low cost carrier model problem. So you know, a bailout of the other low cost carriers or even the mainline carriers could be coming if the cost of jet fuel remains.
As high as it is. You know, I'm particularly worried about airlines like Jet Blue.
You know, the truth is, it's very hard to remain profitable with the.
Cost of jet fuel as high as it is.
But my fears we end up with just the mainline carriers left, you know, Alaska and Hawaiian, Southwest, American, Delta United, and that means higher fares for all of us. Already, we've seen fars jump between ten and thirty for summer travel, so fasten your seatbelts.
On that front, the President has been wanting to have a tour around the country. This is something that we talked about before, to talk about his economy, to talk about his success.
He can't afford the fuel. I'm just joking.
Yeah, he probably can.
He probably can't.
Sorry, not at all.
The irony of him wanting to talk about his record in the months before the midterms is it's his actions that are leading to this going up, leading to the fuel prices going up, I mean leading to inflation, the inflationary impact of the war, of the oil prices, of gasoline prices. It makes a tough political sell when you're trying to hold on to control of Congress.
So Patrick, on that note, gas prices we saw in California were really high this week. Planes, trains, automobiles, maybe not trains, but definitely cruise ships if you are trying to get around, if you're trying to have any kind of vacation. Seems like all of these options are not great. And just when it comes to affordability, where are Americans really going to start to feel these high gas prices the most?
Yeah?
Absolutely, I mean West coast areas you're already seeing prices over six dollars a gallon in California, you know, so the West Coast may not be the place to travel this summer. And the nation's interior, whether it's the Plains, the Rockies, not so much the Great Lakes right now due to some refinery issues, but the nation's interior is going to be a little bit more insulated from those
higher prices this year. And that's just because that fuel that is produced in those areas the Plaines and Rockies can't as easily be exported as what's produced in say the Gulf Coast or the East Coast or the West Coast, where we're seeing a lot of pressure now from overseas markets,
from diesel to jet fuel to gasoline being exported. In fact, in the last week alone, the EIA reports that nearly one hundred million barrels of oil and refined products have left US shores, and that's going to put an immense amount of pressure, especially on the West Coast where California now with the loss of two refineries in the last eight months, that's far more critical.
California now left to import fuel.
And keep in mind the interesting part of this is some airlines you mentioned Spirit Norse Atlantic saying we're done with California because of the risk of a jet fuel issue on the West Coast. It's certainly elevated. It's certainly not what it might be in areas like Europe. But you talk about jet fuel, the prices doubled, some airlines saying we're not going to gamble on the West coast. And look at all the airlines pulling back from some
of their routes looking at more efficient boosting capacity. I mean, when of Boeing seven eighty seven to nine costs you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars to fill, You're talking about over five hundred dollars on an average seat map for those three hundred seats. It's incredibly expensive right now to fly these airlines overseas. The long hauls will probably stick, but across the board, from gas to jet fuel to diesel, consumers are going to be feeling it left and right this summer.
Patrick, gaze into the gas, Buddy glass Ball, give us your clairvoyant take here of what this looks like in the summertime. We hear from Kevin Hasset, the President's closest economic advisor that these prices could go down as quickly as they've come up. It's something for the President says, well, this is a blip. I think he said about the surge that we've seen in in fuel prices.
Patrick, what's it going to take.
Say we had a cessation of fighting that was lasting, permanent in the Middle East, how soon would prices recover from fact they do?
Well, you know, you talk about prices going back to their pre war level. I think that's next to impossible to happen, probably for the good majority of the rest of this year, unless the pendulum word to swing wildly opened very quickly. I mean, everything would have to be going backwards for us to get to that point where that's possible. Right, we're not seeing any agreement between the US and Iran. We're far apart on that. So strait
was open until it was closed. So even if there is some clarity, it's going to take a little bit of verification and time to build confidence. I don't think we're going to see any real case of gas prices this summer falling below four dollars. Maybe if the straight reopens, we could see the national average falling to the mid to upper three dollar range. But even then those prices are still seventy five cents to a dollar a gallon, more than what we're seeing over the winters. So Americans
are going to have to buckle up. I think we're going to start a Memorial Day starting the summer driving season with prices over four dollars, And if the President doesn't act on reopening the Straight and coming up with some solution, that gas prices this summer could even.
Hit five dollars a gallon.
Heck, they're already five dollars a gallon on the West Coast, in the Great Lakes, they're pushing five dollars a gallon. That may become more of a reality for much more of the country if the Strait doesn't soon reopen.
Patrick, I only want to get back to airplanes here. But you mentioned those gas prices price we're paying at the pump. I know that there's been some speculation the President might, through executive action, try to remove that gas tax. Would that make a notional difference for those of us who have.
Cars and drive around.
Well, first of all, that would require an Act of Congress to waive that federal gas tax of eighteen point four cents.
Let me color it this.
Way that Georgia and in Indiana both have gas tax holidays right now, but you look at what happened in the Great Lakes, and Indiana now is paying the exact same as Michigan and Ohio when it comes to gasoline.
Those do to some refining issues. States have tried this.
In fact, I think Texas is now talking about other states are looking at this. The Canadian government, for their part, has also eased a ten cent a leader in Canada excise tax. So it would work, but it will require Congress, and that's anything but guaranteed. Right now, it would be temper I mean, eighteen cents when the national average is four forty five a gallon is kind of like rubbing
salt in the wound. But back to the airlines, by the way, earlier this week you talk about trying to run an airline in this type of environment.
Jet fuel in Chicago.
Briefly spiked well over five dollars a gallon just this week, and you're seeing a lot of the these hotspots from coast to coast, inland and areas of the coastal region. Jet fuel's just all over the map. You fly into Dallas and jet feels three eighty. You fly into Chicago and it's over five dollars a gallon. That's got to be a nightmare for airlines to sort this out.
Jeff talked to us about the messaging from the White House because the President last night was essentially saying oil is high, but it could be much higher. It could have been much higher. It's actually not as high as we expected it to be. Is that going to work if we're rolling into midterms and these prices are still there, Because, as we've been talking about, ad nauseum insurance is what
the shipping industry kind of runs on. And even if the straight were to open tomorrow, the threshold not only to pay these sailors and captains to be willing to take that risk, but just the risk factor is going to make insurance costs go up, which is going to make shippy We're not going to get back to that floor anytime soon.
Well, what the quote that you just decided is vintage Donald Trump. I mean to say, oh, I thought it was going to be higher, This isn't that bad, And also to predict that they're going to come down just like that. He doesn't know that, and the reality is you're talking about five dollars gas.
Good grief.
I mean, being over four dollars a gallon is already painful. But if consumers are going into the voting booths in November having paid five dollars a gallon for gas, or perhaps still paying that much, it's going to be very painful for Republicans.
Clint Henderson with the points guy, let me ask you about what you're looking for from the administration going forward here. So we have Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy kind of tweeting through this a lot of posts on social media this morning about what should happen, noting the fact that there are going to be these lower fares for passengers who are stranded. What is as you see at the role of the federal government here as an airline goes under and passengers are picking up the pieces.
Yeah, well, it's really unusual in the United States to see an airline.
Liquid hit like this.
I'm really glad the government stepped in to try to encourage other airlines to take care of these passengers, because we really just haven't seen anything like this since two thousand and six, two thousand and eight. I expect more consolidation, you know, as far as what the government can do, I'd love to see them reopen the straight aforemos. That's that's gonna be the big answer to a lot of
these issues. But right now, at the points guy, we're telling people, go ahead and book all your flights for the rest of the year if you can afford it. Lock in prices now, because I do think we're just going up from here. I'm booked through spring of next year, just because I want to get ahead of it. Because it's not just price of tickets, it's fuel surcharges being added and rising bag fees. The airlines are going to try to recoup this as best they can, and the
consumers are going to pay for it. And remember, because the airlines are also reducing capacity unless we see a drop in demand, there's more passengers trying to get fewer seats, and that also leads to price increases.
Let's got spring break already.
Aspire.
I aspire to have a kind of life where I can plan trips out two years and ad fancies guys hard time.
Imagine if I don't want to pay more.
Than I have to, that's I have already been playing this summer. Jeff, weeple think about thirty seconds, but would like the government to reopen the strait.
How's that going?
I mean, the President said this week that he's unhappy with the deal or the most recent proposal from Iran. It doesn't suggest that there's going to be any agreement anytime soon, and there's going to have to be an agreement before the strait is opened again.
And Iran semi official news agency saying something similarly bleak this morning.
All right, thanks to all Jeff Maxon, our White House correspondent here on set with us in New York, Clint Henderson with the points guy Patrick Dehan of Gasbuddy, giving us an update on those fuel prices, which of course were a huge factor in Spirit's decision, so much as it was Spirit's decision to close down news that we got this morning at about three o'clock Wall Street Time. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Right after this, the two biggest US oil companies reported earnings Friday for the first time since the Iran war began. Exceon and Chevron beat xpecations, with oil and gas prices rising since February which offset drop and supply.
We spoke with our colleague Javier bloss columnists for Energy and Commodities.
Here Bloomberg opinion that the.
Ongoing threat to global energy supplies take a listen.
It's not just the price of oil and natural gas outside the North.
America that have gone up.
Also, refining margins have been incredibly high through the month of March, and both Exon and Chevron indicated that they run the refinery is very hard through that period. So I think that that is one of the key reasons that the results have been as good and surprising to the upside to Water Street.
We've been hearing from the administration. President Trump meant with a head of sentcom and it seems like they want to stick with this blockade. I have two questions for you. How much pain is this actually inflicting on Iran? And talk to us about the storage issue. The administration says Aaron is running out of storage.
Is that real or not?
Well, Stepping from the first part of your question, it's inflicting quite a lot of pain. Iran effectively is losing around one hundred and seventy five million million dollars a day in lost income from the oil revenue from the oil esports. But the key question is that enough for Iran to come to the negotiation table with an offer that is good enough for President Trump, And the answer
potentially is not enough. Iran made quite a lot of money for the first two months of the war where it was able, and the US have no problem letting Iran selling his oil. So in some way they have some money that they cash in in the early days and weeks of the war, and they can't use that extra money that they made to cushion the current blow. On the question of is going to be any long term damage to the oil wells, my Viieo is no. First of all, Iran is still loading oil into tankers.
It was on Friday according to satellite pictures that we were with you in a bloomberg loading a super tanker at car Island. So that's an indication that Iran still has access to tankeys that they were inside the Persian golf when the blockade started, and it has on short storage. So I don't see Iran having to start reducing production
at the earliest until probably the middle of May. And will that cause some damage, Probably not, And even if there was some damage will be that really what is going to proad the Iranian authorities to come to the table with an offer. The President Trump is satisfied Again, I don't think so.
In the midst of this ceasfire, how much production is ron able to do? Just just give us your advantage on the gree to which oil production run continues to pace.
Well, if we look at crude oil and condensates, Iran was producing around three and a half million borrows a day, sporting about one point eight million borrows a day, and the rest goes to the domestic market. So Iran needs to produce somewhere between one seven and one eight million borrowers a day used.
To keep the country fuel.
Perhaps the demand now in Iran is a bit lower than otherwise because of the destruction of the world, because people are not traveling because mobility is down. But Iran is a big oil consumer on his own, so significant chunk or his production goes into the domestic market and then the rest of it goes to the esport market. At the moment, Iran is loading still tankers, but those tankers cannot really reach the high seas that are stopped by the US Navy. That's where we are today. At
some point they will run out of tankers. They will need to start a store in the oil on shore into tanks, and at some point they will have to reduce production, cut shut down the world. Shut in the world we call it in the oil industry. That moment has yet to arrive.
You said, Iron probably has to make the decisions starting at the end of May. What about other big producers in the reason, Are there any other producers that you think are nearing or will near their storage capacity and start to throttle back potentially sooner rather than later.
Well, every other producer in the Persian goal have already maxed out there storage capacity. That's what production in places like kube Iraq Katar has completely collapsed. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emi dates continue to produce oil. That's because they have bypass pipelines that they can bypass the Strato Hormus reach the Golf of Woman in the case that the Ue or the Red Sea in the case of Saudi Arabia.
That's the reason that they keep producing.
But everyone else in the region have to take those decisions to shut in oil wells.
In the very early days of the war, and no one.
Really at the White House is talking about the Kubeiti oil fields exploding because they have to be shut down. I think that this focus on Iran having particular problem is misplaced. Everyone in the regum produced oil from a
very similar carbonate reservoirs. Yes, perhaps the Iranian oil fields are older and have so low pressure it has been and the Sanchel don't have American technology, but the Iranian petroleum engineers have been very creative over the last forty plus years to keep those oil fields running despite everything you mentioned.
The UAE UA saying cyanara at opek plus, which is meeting this weekend, So I imagine those members are going to lick their wounds then try to plot a path forward here.
What does that look like?
How does opek plus move on from the UAE going its own.
Well.
On the short term, nothing changes because with opech so with the UE living, but they cannot increase production because of the strait of hormones remains close and the UAE is already maxed out on the bypass pipeline that they are using.
So short term nothing changed.
Medium time, if the stray hormones reopens, the UE will start increasing production.
They will be demand for those barrels.
Because we are really running down the walls oil inventories, both on the commercial side and strategic inventories. Everyone is going to have to buy extra oil to replenish those inventories. But we were wondering where that extra oil was coming. Now we have a bit of an answer that extra oil probably is going to come from the UIE. Long term, that's a more difficult one. I think that the UE keeps increasing production. I put Saudi Arabia on a corner.
At some point in Saudi Arabia is to the side, say middle of twenty seven, early twenty eight, do we want to reduce production to keep prices higher or we just join the United Arab EMI days and that also other members in that cartel are going to be thinking are we taking the right decision staying with the saudiast or should we follow the UIE. And I think that we're gonna see over the next few months other countries are starting to talk quite openly about potentially leaving the cartel.
That was my question is if you look at those OPAC members, especially once you do throwle production, I mean some I think you can correct her around Libya and Nigeria pretty much produced at a capacity most of the time. But those who are really those big players have to be watching us very closely, and can Saudi hold this together? If you're going to pick the next potential defector out of OPEK, who would be your bet?
I would say two names.
One on the OPEC plus group, on the Big Alliance, I will be Kathakhstan. They are acting like they are out, but they are keeping inside because of the relationship with Russia and because probably they say, well, we're gonna produce as much as we can. We are cheating all the time. Better to cheat within the group and we get some of the information and some of the upside. We are free riding effectively the cartel. But can Kathakhtan at some
point say goodbye? I think that that's a candidate. The other one inside OPEK and one of the founding countries
and one where the US has a lot more influenced. Venezuela, the government of Delcia Rodriguez says that they're staying, but at some point over the next twelve to eighteen months, I will expect, I will hope that we will see the democratic elections in Venezuela if that election turns to opposition government, the opposition historically has been hostile to Opek, and then we can see Venezuela leaving and that will be a big deal because a country that wants to
produce more oil, that is going to have probably the investment to produce more oil, and it was one of the founding countries of Opek.
That will be a big deal.
That will be the first departure of one of the original founders.
Have your last question for you.
Iron is doing all of this right now and there is talk I know of finding ways to reroute oil going forward in the future.
How long is that likely to take? How real is it?
There could be kind of a whole new infrastructure built here the next years for decades to get oil out of this region.
Well, you don't have a lot of permitting fights in Saudi Arabia. The Royal Palace decides to do a new pipeline, they just do it. The original east to west pipeline. That is the one that we are using at the
moment to bypass the Stradio hormones. That that's the one that runs from the Persian Gulf in the east of Saudi Arabia to the west coast into the Red Sea that was built in the eighties in four years, and that's when they have to build the whole the whole line, do all the earth movement, all the you know, all the difficult job. So I will think that for five years Marx we see a lot more pipelines.
So we have this odd situation. We are a peak of.
The influence of Iran on the Stradio hormones. They have never had a grip on the stradi of hormones as they have. But just because they are having that grip today, that grip over time will will will will be weekend because more countries in the region will build bypass pipeline. I'm sure that Saudi Arabia will increase the capacity of their East West pipeline.
I'm sure that the UIE is going to do the same.
Key question is does Kube built a pipeline and it's so through where probably south to Saudi Arabia and then across to the Red Sea. Do other countries do on my Qatar built his own pipeline, perhaps through Saudi Arabia. That's politically more complicated. What Iraq wants to do has options through Syria, has another option through north to Turkey. There's already a pipeline there. It will be a question
of expanding. So the reions pipeline politics are going to get really interesting over the next few years.
And if you don't follow Javier on Twitter as most of us do, please do you'll learn a time. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right after this, the.
Crypto project, held by the Trump and Whitcoff families is under fresh scrutiny this week after Bloomberg reported investors put in more than five hundred and fifty million dollars and now are locked out of the majority of their holdings, with the token trading around fifty four cents.
Now.
This is where actor Ben McKenzie, that's right, Be McKenzie of the oc fame comes in. He is the writer and director of a new film investigating cryptocurrency, and he sat down with the leaders of Crypto, including Sam bankman Fried and others. Take a listen.
How did you get here?
Shot a great question. Have a degree in economics as an undergraduate. The pandemic hit. The showbiz really wasn't functioning, especially for actors, and so I was bored out of my mind and a buddy of mine came to me and he said I should buy bitcoin.
It was, you know, in the news, the celebrities were hawking it.
And I love my buddy, but he's given me terrible financial advice before he had.
As many friends do, as many.
Friends do, and in my twenties he'd encouraged me to invest in some random company that had supposedly produced synthetic blood. This was a fairnose with some precursor scam. Anyway, I put money in, he put money, and we both lost it. He came back to me and said I was buy bitcoin, and I'm like, Dave, I am not gonna buy bitcoin.
What is it?
You know?
And he did that thing or he's like it's a crypto card scene and I'm like, so it's money. You can buy stuff with it, oh.
You know?
And I was like, Dave, are you sure you know what you're getting into?
Anyway, that led me down a rabbit hole.
Somebody with you talk isn't a storian of fraud, and he talks about surf what goes through the mind of a frauds or how a fraud is executed? What did you learn about kind of the way that those who are perpetrating frauds, be they financial or otherwise, are thinking about what they're doing in real time.
Yeah, I found that fascinating.
This guy, Dan Davis wrote a book called Lying for Money, which I highly recommend if you're into true crime and how true crime and financial crime and how frauds work. And one of the things he told me that I thought was fascinating is that frusters are not like other criminals. They're not They don't generally commit violent crimes, and they often start out as legitimate businessman and then sometimes they entered the fraud through a mistake.
Sometimes it's intentional.
But the lie gets bigger and bigger and bigger. But they have to conceive of themselves as legitimate businessmen. They're sort of the ultimate method actors, right, Like they have to believe their own story, which I think explains perhaps why Sam BigMan Fried was willing to talk to me on camera, even though in our Twitter profile it said writing a book on crypto and fraud, so like, I couldn't understand that, but I think he felt I think he.
Still feels that he's a legitimate businessman. You sit down with him in New York. Yeah, like we have a clip of that.
I had a conversation with Alex Meshchensky, Yeah, yep. I asked him how much real money is in crypto, and he said ten to fifteen percent.
He said the rest is speculations.
So as of today, I think the number of dollars in crypto not changed massively between then and now.
One would perhaps there's lessons.
They certainly have not increased.
I don't think they've decreased massively, though, which I think lines up with some of your thoughts that, like a lot of this was leverage leaving this.
Part of the problem if they haven't left, is that people can't get their money out. Imagine this is a regulated back.
Oh yeah, this would be a big That would be a big problem.
This does not seem like the decentralized, democratized future of money that we were promised.
I think we've seen all the major carnage in the crypto industry already.
Throughout that interview, he's kind of making a claim that all the front all the bad actors have been felled. Yeah, and that crypto is wide open and a clearer slate than perhaps we all expected.
Right, And then like five months later he's arrested. Yeah, I mean, this is the constant this is a repetitive theme in crypto is no, no.
Okay, that was the bad guy. Oh no, actually that was the backing. Well, no, this one.
You know, at a certain point, the way I understand it is this, Look, there's the retail trading pop and those people are not bad people.
They're trying to make some money.
I mean maybe some of them are, but they represent normal retail investors and I am not.
I am not doing this against them.
I'm trying to protect them from an industry that I don't I think doesn't care about them, you know what I mean.
I don't see the crypto.
Companies really doing anything to protect their customers. In fact, what they're doing is trying to change the rules, get special legislations so that they aren't treated like banks or securities or whatever. And so yeah, I would say that, like that's my motivation. I find the sort of constant deflection of like just that one bad apple.
On that one.
But it doesn't make any sense. I mean, there's so much crime in crypto. A crypto company last year estimated that one hundred and fifty four billion dollars of criminal activity was facilitated the a cryptocurrency in twenty twenty five alone, and that's from a crypto company, So it might be on the low end of the inspect That is an enormous, staggering amount of criminal activity. And it's everything from like Russian oligarchs selling sanctioned oil to the Chinese and exchange
for drones or sending to Ukraine. It's isis, it's a lot of money launer.
North Koreans are very involved in it, you know, trying to steal it, trying to use it, getting around sanctions.
Half the hackers, the North Round hackers, half of the North Korea nuclear weapons program was funded via the crypto hacking teams.
Why hasn't there been any kind of pushback because these people have gone to jolly scams have been revealed and there's you know concept.
That's a great that's a great question. I would let's see there's I would say there's a couple of parts. The first is so in twenty twenty two, we were on our way. In twenty twenty three, we're on our way to like some sort of reckoning. Yeah, Sam was in jail. Shehan Peng Shao Finance pled guilty to money laundering, a bunch of other people into jail. Alex Maschenski, who I interview in the movie, is in jail. And then
Trump turned to suddenly loving cryptocurrency. In the summer of spring summer of twenty twenty four re election, he had called bitcoin a scam as recent he is twenty twenty one. But whether he saw there was money to be made for himself, or whether he saw a constituency that he needed to will young men that might have been as well,
he's all of a sudden love crypto. Then people quite frankly rationally did the calculation of well, if he's it's a fifty fifty shot of him getting re elected, and if he gets elected, he can do a lot and has done a lot. I'll talk about that in a second. So they started betting on it and the price went up and it went crazy. It was like one hundred and twenty thousand dollars by the time he was in office.
And now he's done, He's delivered on that.
They've disbanded the DOJ Cryptocrime Task Force, the SEC has been gutted. They passed this bill called the Genius Act, which if you know this Congress and it's called the Genius Act, got to be stupid. And what it does is allow, amongst other things, allow corporations to issue their own money in the foremost table clips, So literal corporate.
Money is what we're talking about.
I'll ask you lastly just about what really seems to animate the movie. You talked about just a moment ago. That is, people who have done this and lost a ton of money. So Celsius, which build itself, is this kind of anti bank people put a ton of money into and lost all of it, And a sobering moment in the movie as you're talking to many of these folks around the country, maybe around the world, who have lost their fortunes in some cases and are having to
reckon with all of that. I think about that in the context of the conversation with Alison Shinsky, who started that company, who I think you later describe as kind of a carnival barker and seems that way when you're at a conference kind of sitting around with him on couches like these. What is it that's so persuasive about this industry to people that maybe they let their guard down or they don't have any inhibitions about going into this nascent financial product.
Yeah.
I mean it's partially get rich quick scheme, which is the oldest scheme in the books, but to be sympathetic, and I am sympathetic to the people that have lost a lot of money. I think if crypto serves any function, it's to redirect us back to the regulated system and the failures of the regulated system to convince people that they are to give people a shot at act getting ahead.
You know, I think the thing that's really pernicious about it is that, you know, you mentioned the interviews I did with the Celsius victims.
I bonded.
I bond with him at the beginning of the movie, and at the end of the movie, I come back to them and I ask them the same question, which is do you still believe in it having lost.
All the money?
And they all said yes. So amongst the hardcore group you're really talking about. I described the movie as a It's a projection of the hopes and dreams of all of those investors. And as long as the crypto industry, as long as the crypto industry will.
Keep selling the story, as long as they're buying it.
Well, that's disappointing, highly accurate, and we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you very much, McKinnie, Thank you so much for coming in.
Thanks guys, stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Right after this, Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend.
I'm David Gera with Christina Raffini, and it is the most exciting in two minutes in sports, the one hundred and fifty second running of the Kentucky Derby tonight at Churchill.
Downs all right last year nearly half a billion dollars or bet on race week. Recently, we spoke with David Popadopolis. He is Bloomberg's managing editor and the in house expert here on horse racing, especially when it comes to picking an unlikely winner. Here's our long shot.
In general at the racetrack, betting on really really long shots, is it fool's errands.
It's a it's a sucker bet, but.
It's so tempting because the payout is so huge.
That's exactly right. But so on most days of the year, it's a terrible bet. Okay, on Kentucky Derby day in the Derby, it's a fantastic bet, or at least it has been over the last few decades. And when I say really long shots, I'm not talking about.
Eight to one or twelve to one. Those can be fine.
I'm talking about forty to one, in fifty to one, in eighty to one. Those horses have one a handful of times in recent years, and you just hit one of those, and man, it'll pay for a lot of losing tickets.
The most recent of them, which is a few.
Years ago in twenty twenty two, a horse rich strike one at odds of eighty to one. There are a bunch of things that make that the case, that make the Derby a great race to bet on really long shots, and the single thing though, that drives it all is it's just a very chaotic, random race. None of these horses being young three year olds. The Derby's only for three year old horses. None of them has ever raced
this far in their career. They've raced a mile, a mile on a sixteen, so on, so so you don't exactly know which of them are going to really relish that distance.
That's one thing. The other thing is the crowd. One hundred and fifty.
Thousand people there on hand. This is unlike anything these horses have ever experienced before. They're used to like seven thousand people showing up for a race and things being sort of subdued, and horses being, you know, flight animals skittish by nature. A lot of them are really set off by the crowd and lose their minds before the race.
I know that.
So even horses who are used to racing can get freaked out by the louder.
Oh wow, like a hundred percent happens all the time. It happens all the time. And the last thing, and perhaps the most important of those chaos factors, is the size of the field. There are twenty horses in the Kentucky Derby race on a typical race on that typical sleepy Thursday in July where there're seven thousand people and not one hundred and fifty thousand people on hand. There aren't twenty horses in the starting gate. There are seven eight.
They actually a Churchill Downs. They have a special twenty horse starting gate that they only bring out once a year for the Kentucky Derby to get all twenty horses in. And when you have twenty horses on the track at the same time in a cavalry charge stampede. It creates all sorts of traffic pile ups and collisions and suicidal speed duels between two Like all sorts of weird things happen.
You have had year after year, terrific horses that have done great things before the derby and great things after the derby, flop terribly in the Derby just because all this weird stuff happens, and so as a result get you can get these really random results like that one eighty to one a few years ago.
So if I wanted to place my bet, I don't have to be at Churchill downstend Oh, talk to us how the rise of online betting and gambling has changed the Derby and how people wager on it.
Well, you know all.
These racetracks, Churchill Downs included, you know, has their betting app.
Have they had it for a while?
Yeah, So, Georgie Dowam's got Twin Spires, the New York tracks have Nayra Bets, my betting app of choice. And there are a whole bunch of others out there fan duel. You know, the sports books now are trying to get in a little bit, and I think they're having some success. We ran the numbers on betting on uber long shots in the Derby this century. It's produced a positive ROI a positive return of fifty this century.
Bed All right, So what are you gonna do? Are who are you backing? Are you gonna bet? Are you gonna bet a long shot?
Are gonna bet? Of course I'm a gambler. Yes, I'm gonna bet.
Renegade is an early favorite four to one odds, But there's quite a few fifty to one horses.
Are you going to do it?
Yeah, so a few of the long shots for sure. And actually, truth be told, being the true degenerate I am. I've already locked some of those long shots locked in bets in the futures market.
The odds change, ads, do change it?
Do you change? Okay?
And at the track it's it's it's a funny system for a lot of people. Like when you bet a horse at fifteen to one with twelve minutes to go before the race, you don't necessarily get fifteen to one, you get the final price that the horse goes off at. Okay, But so for sure, some of the long shots and then some of the more likely horses you know I like the Puma.
Is a good name, good horse. More importantly, emerging market.
It's a horse named emerging market.
Yeah, so he's owned, but you.
Work at Bloomberg, you have to bet on the horse emerging market.
I actually started my career in emerging markets. So yes, actually owned by a hedge fun.
Guy at a Boston so a horse out of Japan called Dan and Berman.
Now, the Japanese have been trying to win their first Derby for many years now, and Dan and Berman there's a lot of buzz around him that he might be the one.
Chief Wallaby is the last of the four.
I'll give you got a love horse name. All right, we're gonna have to leave it there, but if you win on all those fifty one odds, you're gonna come back tomorrow and tell us all about it.
Absolutely right, Thank you so much, No problem, the.
Great David Papadopolis, you missed that, and you missed out with Yeah, that was fun. I'm just looking at the latest odds here. Renegade five to one, Intrepido fifty five to one. In your favorite emerging market, we're eleven to one. All right, I'm going to engage in this.
I think I missed my window, but I should have. I want to put money on emerging markets in general.
And the horse enjoyed that immensely. Again.
Kentucky Derby hundred fifty second running of it taking place razy this weekend.
Get your mint tulips ready.
Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend podcast. Don't forget to tune in live for the show every Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern.
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