TSMC's AI Boost and the Microsoft-Activision Deal - podcast episode cover

TSMC's AI Boost and the Microsoft-Activision Deal

Jul 10, 202340 min
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Episode description

Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow break down how the AI hype cycle is helping TSMC shares, and the fate of Microsoft's $69 billion-dollar takeover of Activision Blizzard. Plus, Meta's newest social app Threads tops 100 million users in less than 5 days. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

From Mahart.

Speaker 2

We're Innovation of Money and Power Collie in Silicon Valley, NBN. This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.

Speaker 3

I'm Caroline Heind at Bloomberg's world headquarters in New York.

Speaker 4

Ed Ludlow here in San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Technology.

Speaker 3

Coming up this hour the AI hypercycle.

Speaker 5

It's helping TSMC, the company reporting better than expected sales on that boom in artificial intelligence applications demand. But can it support the second half? We break down the numbers, plus.

Speaker 4

The fate of microsoft sixty nine billion dollar takeover of Activision Blizzard. It's in the hands of a judge, but it was merger arbitrage specialist glued to the core in San Francisco, some even paying line sitters to snag a seat at high stakes hearing.

Speaker 5

We have the story and Meta's newest social app, Threads topping one hundred million users.

Speaker 3

Less than five days.

Speaker 5

Can this hype cycle hold for first TSMC, Let's bring in our in house expert and another than bloom Legs, Ian King, another brit to add to the mix today. And Ian is it because we've seen the stock already outperform so much that we're seeing a little bit of weakness or is it more that we're worried about the second half.

Speaker 1

I mean it's a mixture of both there.

Speaker 6

I mean, the way to look at this performances really well, it's not as bad as people thought it might be.

Speaker 1

I mean that there are no runaway.

Speaker 6

Expectations of things getting better here. It's just like, well, they kind of did better in a way that we may have expected, and things really for the majority of their business, which is really the smartphone industry, just still doesn't look that good.

Speaker 4

If we simplify the story, TSNC is a contract manufacturer. It makes chips for others who design them. The story smartphone PC bad it basically.

Speaker 1

Yeah, no, that's absolutely it.

Speaker 6

I mean forty percent of around forty percent of their sales are from the smartphone industry, and that's going an industry that's going to be down roughly ten percent this year, so not not brilliant at all, and that obviously has wider implications. On the other side, high performance computing, which is PCs, but also the data center.

Speaker 1

And as we've seen, if you've.

Speaker 6

Got people like in video giving you orders, giving you orders for very expensive chips and that's a good place to be.

Speaker 5

Yeah, it is, and for many the warriors and constraints have been on the supply side.

Speaker 3

How much is that t SMC is concerned right now?

Speaker 1

Not so much anymore.

Speaker 6

I mean, I think everybody would like to see, you know, a lot more volume. What we're seeing in terms of this better than expected performance is really a value story, right you know, you're looking at a smartphone chip which is thirty forty, you know, thirty four dollars ago compared

to some of Invideo's chips which are in the thousands. Obviously, if you're selling chips that cost the thousands, then your margins are really good and that helps your revenue where really you want those factories full as well, and that's going to get you, you know, your gross margins.

Speaker 4

We've been talking a lot about an AI hype cycle, but in Caroline this is interesting. Behind the scenes, Ian has been teaching me things which sometimes goes well, sometimes does in h one hundred a one hundred. These are high power gpups, very specific use case to the training and inference side of large language models. You still need the memory chips.

Speaker 1

Correct.

Speaker 4

Why explain why being on the same board GPU, CPU DRAM is important.

Speaker 6

It's all about data sets, right. The bigger the data set, the more parameters, the more information, the better your calculations are, the better you can train it, and the better your influences down the line. What do you need to handle those larger data sets? Better storage and bigger lumps of memory that sit next to those processes. So in theory, Micron, SAMs, Heinix, all of those other companies should be benefiting from this. Unfortunately, smartphones PC's not great.

Speaker 4

Bloombo c and King mister Chip we call him, thank you very much. Now, coming up, what the fate of the Microsoft Activision deal in the video game space has in store for that industry at large. We're going to discuss all that with Convoy Ventures Josh Chapman, a VC whose singular focus is the video games industry. Speaking of take a look at shares of both Microsoft and Activision. We expect imminently the judge to decide an outcome in the FTC hearing or trial for a temporary block on

that deal. Activision off half a percentage point, a soft proxy for the direction of travel where investors see this going. But as we've discussed Microsoft down two point six percent, really big points drag on the nasat one hundred. This is Bloombog Technology. The Microsoft Activision deal is the biggest video gaming and tech deal ever, and it's pretty important

for the arbitrage community too. Portfolio managers, analysts, and specialized brokers who bet on whether mergers will go through flew in from all over the country to sit in on the hearing over Microsoft's takeover deal here in San Francisco. Bloomberg's Maltin Nayak is here for more. So you've spent days and days in that court room.

Speaker 3

It was a five day hearing, yes.

Speaker 4

Alongside some suited and booted individuals. Who are they and why they're there?

Speaker 7

So, you know, I was interested to see some linstitters and then I noticed that they made way for folks in suits and formal clothes and they really stood out

in San Francisco. So I was wondering, you know, who they were, And it turns out that they were merger arbitragers and analysts, you know who were there to just see what was going on, and they were taking notes, you know, feverishly and keeping a very close eye on, you know, all the little grimaces and and sort of the body language of the judge.

Speaker 5

New Yorkers be busted and go to herself in your suits. Malthe what's interesting is, of course they're trying to discern any frowns, any facial movements, basically how this court case is going. From your writing, it seems that perhaps not to or the FDC's advantage.

Speaker 7

It definitely seems like from the last round of questioning by the judge in the last day, she really grilled the FTC and asked for a lot of evidence that wasn't really produced in court. So it definitely seems like right now the companies have the upper hand. But you never know with judges, some of them, you know, they may ask a lot of questions in court, but they won't go very far in terms of taking drastic steps like blocking a deal. So we'll have to see how

it all plays out. But definitely the sentiment now is among the ubtraged community even that perhaps the companies right now things are looking.

Speaker 3

Good for them.

Speaker 4

So there are some things we need to consider about outcomes and scenarios if this goes in Microsoft and acts visions favor. There is a deadline on the deal. We've got to think about that. The UK has a completely separate regulatory process going bring us up to speed on what might happen next.

Speaker 7

So we have this July eighteen deadline that's looming and the companies have to move quickly to close the deal. So everyone is waiting for this ruling to come down from the judge. That will sort of be the first round in the fight with the FTC, which is trying to temporarily block its deal. Block the deal right now. So also UK regulators have said that this deal won't you know, have said that this deal can't go through.

So we have Microsoft which is appealed that decision. We'll have to see what happens in terms of how they plan to close the deal around that. There could be a scenario where they just decide to go ahead and close the deal, but you know, keep the board the entity separate for a while.

Speaker 3

Perhaps they could do.

Speaker 7

That globally or only in the UK. So we'll have to see how that works out in terms of how you know, they work around the UK decision and sort of the appeals process around that.

Speaker 5

July eighteenth clock is ticking. Mauthy Nayak, thank you so much for bringing us, well the legal expertise, what's happening in the courtroom, let's look at how it affects the ecosystem. When please to welcome Josh Chapman, managing partner at Convoy It's and Denver based VC firm investing in all things gaming. Josh, great to have you back on. And does this affect the ecosystem?

Speaker 3

If it doesn't go through, it does affect the ecosystem.

Speaker 8

So right now there's about forty five billion that's sitting in cash on the gaming corporates, and then secondarily there's about one hundred and seventy five billion that's sitting on the balance sheets of tech companies that have gaming divisions, such as Meta or Microsoft. So this ruling certainly does have quite an impact on what's going to happen next around vertical integration and m and A in the gaming industry.

Speaker 5

And of course ed the argument, for example in the UK has been about the cloud element is gaming in particular.

Speaker 4

Yeah, And what's so interesting is when I had Bobby Kotik on the show a few weeks ago, he said, this isn't anything to do with cloud. It's a tiny market. We're not there yet. We write time and again Josh and all blame bag news stories that this deal will reshape the landscape for video games as an industry.

Speaker 8

Does it in part, It doesn't reshape it in the sense of sort of upending the entire console market. If anything, this is a continuation of very competitive and healthy competitive markets.

Speaker 9

Right.

Speaker 8

I personally, I'm on the side of I don't believe that this acquisition is anti competitive, and so from a cloud gaming perspective, Microsoft actually is the perfect cloud infrastructure platform to build an entirely new market. In addition to not only cloud gaming seeing more competition, and you also see the rise of more competition in the mobile market the Xbox game Pass mobile store that they want to launch.

So this adds a ton of competition already to the industry, and so it certainly, you know, they could actually be responsible for creating an entire cloud gaming market.

Speaker 4

When you think about some of the compromises offering Call of Duty on other platforms as an example, what kind of disruption does that give the industry? Because it changes how players have historically accessed those games. There's a lot of loyalty, right you're either PlayStation, Xbox, you're a PC gamer, does that mess things up a bit?

Speaker 1

I don't think it messes it up.

Speaker 8

If anything, I think it actually keeps the plane field across gaming, specifically with Call of Duty, which is really the number one topic right now. Right now, Call of Duty is played by about a million people on PlayStation, So from an economic incentive perspective, Xbox has no economic incentive to remove that game from Sony, and so Sony wants Call of Dude to succeed, and so does Microsoft

and definitely obviously the activision Blizzard. So when it comes to what's next, I think that you could see the rise of cloud gaming being a sort of more affordable way for people to gain which would be great for people who don't want to buy, you know, and invest five hundred to fifteen hundred dollars into an Xbox or the latest PlayStation. So I think this is a netwind

for the consumer. I think over time you're going to see increasingly more cross platform games like Fortnite, like Call of Duty, and I think that that will continue and gaming is going to thrive under the approval of this acquisition.

Speaker 5

Okay, Josh, if it doesn't get approved, how does that change your own investment thesis?

Speaker 3

Do you hold back in terms of writing checks At the moment.

Speaker 8

We wouldn't hold back, So we focus on seeds series of investing, writing one to five million dollar checks primarily into technologies, platforms, and infrastructure of the gaming industry. So we will continue investing in at early stage, which is proveing to be quite vibrant right now. But from an m and a landscape for our companies once they get to later stages that is actually where this could have an impact. Is are vertical integrations and mergers and acquisitions

going to be approved? And I think, as I mentioned earlier, with some of the cash that's out there waiting to acquire great companies, they might be more hesitant because of regulatory concerns versus pure economic deal making.

Speaker 4

Josh, this is the first opportunity I've had to ask you about Apple Vision pro and gaming. What do you make of it?

Speaker 8

I think we're a long way off from the vision that we saw pitched. I think that it is very cool. This is going to be great for very solo experiences. But I view this as sort of one of the just like the first Oculis that came out. If you remember that ed everyone was very excited about it, but true adoption didn't happen until five six, eight years later, so I think that the augmented reality world is coming

and will absolutely be here. We actually got excited about one of the other announcements they made where they are actually launching a gaming operating system to turn their PC industry with the Mac into a gaming platform. That actually kind of went under the radar but was one of the most exciting things you were watching is that they're opening up the ability to run high performing games on

top of Max. That will be much more impactful. I think in four or five six years the Vision pro will enter certainly a more affordable price entry point for the consumer. But like many things, this is about wow now and then leader CEMTS Adoption.

Speaker 4

Josh Chapman, managing partner at Convoy also talking all things Activision, Microsoft, and we are expecting any day now the judge to make a decision in that FTC pause request time for talking tech First up and ton Ali Barbara are paying the price for Jackmar's clash with the Chinese government. On Friday, Beijing announced a nearly one billion dollar fine four ANC Group,

but it's signaled an end to a regulatory crackdown. Now, Jack Mars, Ali Barba and out Group have collectively lost eight hundred and fifty billion dollars in value since twenty with Ali Barber's market value off by about six hundred and twenty billion from its peak, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And Foxcott has determined it will not move forward on a semiconductor joint venture with India's the Dana.

Fox Conn said the company aims at exploring more diverse development opportunities and that the company is working to remove the fox Conn name from what is now a fully owned entity of the Danta. Plus. Amazon's annual Prime Day isn't as popular as it used to be in the past four years. The stock's actually fallen in the week of the two dal day sale as investors' focus has shifted to aws It's cloud computing business. One to watch Carol it.

Speaker 5

Is and let's stick on how Amazon is clearly a company that's been embracing the world of AI like everything, but also we'll slowly been trying to embrace healthcare offerings too.

Speaker 3

We want to talk about.

Speaker 5

That insect a little bit more, particularly as we recently saw in Connecticut, consumers getting more control over how businesses treat information about their health and data, particularly for those aged under eighteen. Lawmakers added the new LO for example, to the Connecticut Data Privacy Act, which to affect July. The first joining us now about insect AI and healthcare is an expert in the field.

Speaker 3

When it's Sony.

Speaker 5

SUKEAI founder and CEO, you're really trying to basically give advantages to clinicians, in particular AI helping streamline their tasks. How much has data and privacy been one that you've had.

Speaker 4

To navigate significant?

Speaker 10

I mean, you know, to be honest, the biggest public health crisis in this country that few people talk about is the fact that clinicians are burning out. I would say eighty eight percent of all clinicians, by some recent study don't recommend their own profession to their kids anymore. For every hour of clinical work you do, you spend two hours doing administrative work.

Speaker 1

So it's super important to.

Speaker 10

Actually figure out how to use AI in healthcare. And the first place where you will start is probably an automating clinician workflows. If you're going to do that, then privacy data, how do you actually retain it and take care of it becomes paramount.

Speaker 4

We are learning on blibag technology and we have been for a year now that when you're building a large language model or foundation model, the quality and volume of data is key. So how do you reconcile the need for privacy with the need for massive volumes of data to develop next generation technology?

Speaker 10

You know, first of all, it's actually important to actually talk about what.

Speaker 9

AI really is.

Speaker 1

The truth is here.

Speaker 10

You know, even a dog walking app has AI these days, and so it's a little bit of a hype cycle that's going on. AI is a very broad term and it goes all the way from speech technologies, speech transcription technologies, understanding your commands, so intent extractors, large language models is just the next generation of language model work that's happened in AI. You can actually make a big dent in clinical workflows by using all of these in some variety

of fashions. The truth is that the data in healthcare is very discrete and very specific, and so therefore you don't need tremendously large bodies of data to be able to create that actually works in this way.

Speaker 4

Caroline, I think we have so many founders on this show, so many bench cats, lists and we do talk broadly about AI. To be fair, we also find vcs that are very specifically focused on where they're putting money thematically or in a narrow field.

Speaker 5

So right, think about the applications in the legal field, we think about your application in the healthcare field, pun it. And to that end, have you been taking a lot more calls from people wanting to put money to work in your own company? I know you raised funds, it's a significant round what back in twenty twenty one, but have you been looking at adding on in this particular realm?

Speaker 10

Yeah, I mean the right time, that will actually become very important, and you know, as you scale the company you have to do that. I think the primary question to ask is what problem are you really trying to solve? First and foremost, we want to make sure that clinicians don't have to really focus on these screens and typing and checking boxes when they're actually talking.

Speaker 1

To the patient.

Speaker 10

I mean, imagine a world when you walk in and you just ask, you know, Suki, which is kind of like a SERI for doctors, what's my day like? And it tells you here's the next few patients you're coming in, said, give me a summary of the next patient, show me the chest text ray, summarize the findings for me, and then hey, let's just edit it a little bit and push it into the underlying system of record well quickly.

Speaker 4

The idea is that Suki does not replace human doctors, but it is an assistant, an aid. Yes, mechanically, how does that work?

Speaker 10

Well, I mean, you know, imagine having something that's always with you everywhere you go, and when you walk into an exam room you ask it to give a summary of the patient. When you are talking to the patient, what about you ask Suki to pay attention and if you'll take the doctor, patient and counter and create a clinical note out of it. What if you edit it, add some orders and then you say, Suki, just submit that to the system of record. That is an assistant

for the doctor. And I think that is the future of where healthcare text is going to be going.

Speaker 4

Suk I founder and CEO PUNIT Sony Caroline. This is a topic on the show that we are going to continue talking about health in artificial intelligence.

Speaker 5

Welcome back to lu Meg Technology. I'm Karine Hide in New York and let's get you a quick update on the public markets, right now halfway through the trading day, and look a little bit more caution here in the United States, particularly in big tech look than NASDAK more broadly as a benchmark off by some three tenths and percent.

Speaker 3

We've got well a very healthy jobs data that was clear from last week.

Speaker 5

Now we look ahead to what the CPI print inflation data.

Speaker 3

Is going to show US.

Speaker 5

And the Federal reserves speak ahead of them going silent before they make the latest rate hike decision as many are bracing for. I'm looking at the MASCI or Country World Index.

Speaker 3

So interestingly Europe.

Speaker 5

Managed to pick itself up after a few days of sell off. The macro data really out there showing that Europe could do with a little bit more purchasing power. On the least on the day, were seeing that the Golden Dragon index in China showing actually there was a little bit of a lift in Asia trading Chinese stocks on the higher side, at least those traded in the tech world here in the United States are one point

two percent. As we understand, the Chinese government in particular is going to be showing some support to its property sector.

Speaker 3

But the all.

Speaker 5

Encompassing meaning is that maybe the Chinese economy gets a little bit of a boost. I'm looking at the individual movers Microsoft on the downside. Look, the Nazak one hundred is under scrutiny because the Magnificent seven on which Microsoft is one of them, and indeed so is Amazon. Look, it's got two heavier waitings towards them. The outperformance of those seven stocks means that maybe we get a rebalancing

coming July the fourteenth. What does that mean for how these stocks are traded in the ETF so QQQ For example, we're currently trading.

Speaker 3

Down by Amazon.

Speaker 5

We look ahead to of course that all important prime data Moorrow tomorrow kickoff and Rivia and I do this for you, Ed because I know that you've been all over this stock after that exclusive conversation last week.

Speaker 3

Now nine straight days potentially a record run.

Speaker 4

Hi, there's a good stock to watch. Thank you.

Speaker 9

Now.

Speaker 4

Global Data Analytics Analytics Software make a quantexa SO to invest two hundred and fifty million US dollars into new AI research over the next three years. The firm helps to uncover hidden risks and opportunities for financial services businesses. Joining us now is CONTEXTA CEO Vishal Marrier from London, Vishaw. Is this a case of invest in AI or get left behind?

Speaker 11

Great question, Edain, thanks for having me on. I think there's a couple of points here. So first and foremost, AI machine learning has been in the DNA of context since we started it in twenty sixteen, on the way we unify data, contextualized data and support those insights for our clients to make better trusted decision. Machine learning in AI has been through the platform.

Speaker 1

End to end.

Speaker 11

The investments we're doing today and what we've announced this morning is to catapult further investment in all things AI and machine learning to better serve some of the more harder applications when it comes down to regulated markets.

Speaker 5

You are based in London, of course, but also here in New York, Boston, Toronto, Malaga, you name it. You're across Europe in particular, for shout, Where do you allocate some of this money this investment? Is it London or else where?

Speaker 1

Great question, Caroline.

Speaker 11

So we are hq'ed here in the UK, and as you craigly state, we're in twenty plus cities worldwide and you mentioned a few, and from the engineering perspective, our hard of our engineering is done here in the UK. If that's data engineers, data scientists working with the core platform, verticalizing those applications in areas like data management, customer or Patient three sixty, areas like KYC and AML. Many of those applications are built here in the UK, working closely

with many of our strategic clients. And those clients, as you said, are globally so if they're in the US with large banks such as Banking New York and Melon, or ensure as companies like Alians Group in Germany, these are major clients of context, so that we work very closely with base here in the UK.

Speaker 5

I mean, ed we sit here as three Brits. But it's notable that the UK has had a rich history with AI. We know that DeepMind of course really built there and it's something that the UK is trying to show what particularly with the US.

Speaker 4

Visit, there's a history of research in the UK. But also President by on his visit to UK, I'm told that the Prime Minister brought up this kind of cooperation fishow between the US and UK. What's your assessment of that cooperative work in the field of AI.

Speaker 1

So, I think the field of AI.

Speaker 11

It is an ecosystem coming together when it's to do with academia, when it's to do with regulation or government, but also the enterprise and obviously as tech providers like Quantexa, working in a broader ecosystem is critical for the success of AI. But one thing I would also add ed and Karen to your point of the visit today of the AI regulations and AI standards is really important to put in play because one thing that's critical here is AI is here to stay. I studied AI twenty plus

years ago. This is not necessarily a new technology. It's a technology which is at the forefront today. It's in primetime today. But ensuring that is treated carefully in a trusted and transparent fashion is really critical. And if that's any regulation or any standard or any collaboration between governments as a key topic, I think is only important for organizations to be doing that.

Speaker 4

But I do go back to the point Caroline made about your global footprint. When you listen to President Biden and you listen to Prime Minister Sunak, who is more convincing in the leadership of driving AI forward, where do you want to put your money and find your talent The UK or the United States.

Speaker 11

Great, great question ed, And I think from a talent perspective, we must always put our customers, our clients, at the center to everything we do. When I started Context in twenty sixteen, it was with that sole mission to ensure that we put our clients, if those are large banks, government organizations, insurers, or healthcare organizations, putting them at the

center to our innovation is critical. So working closely with our clients, working closely with academia obviously a critical part to any CEO strategy.

Speaker 1

Who is running a tech company.

Speaker 11

And we've obviously done incredibly well both here in the UK as well as in the US and other countries in recruiting some of the best talent. You know, we work very closely with a number of universities to ensure we're working with some of the hardest working with some of the hardest problems with those universities, and looking at the talent from that perspective too.

Speaker 5

Vishaw, what's interesting, of course, when you're in the intersection of finance and AI and tech, you're going to be very used to trying to navigate regulation when it comes to financial institutions. What about regulation of AI I mean I'm looking at the EU or in Ireland or in Amsterdam Brussels, and clearly they're trying to act quickly on an AI act.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 11

No, absolutely So coming back to my earlier point current, So, everything we have done here at CONTEXTA from an AI machine learning trans perspective, is fully transparent, fully scalable, and most importantly within our platform, we've adopted a wide box set of algorithms that are very clear to explain to any regulator, to any model risk management department in a

bank on a how you stitch that data? But more importantly, why did you come to an outcome to say this person's of interest or this party is not of interest? And that is at the common to most of the regulations globally, the transparency, the explainability, and the ethical use of such data.

Speaker 4

When you're going to make a return on your big investment in AI.

Speaker 11

So, just like with many investments, is backed by a business case and you know this investment is completely follows that path. Now, we obviously just close our Series E at the beginning of April, where we raised just over one hundred and thirty million at evaluation a one point eight billion led by GIC. Now as part of that investment, there is an investment case on where we deploy our funds. But we will take a long term strategic view on this and so am I investors. As I mentioned, AI

is not just here today and gone tomorrow. AI is here and has been here before, and it will stay here continually. But it's very important that organizations like Quantexa take a much more long term view when it comes down to investments and what I'm delighted my clients, my partners as well as my investors are all on that journey with us to ensure we're making those making that impact in the market.

Speaker 5

Michelle Maria, great to have some time with you and Texa there based over in London. Meanwhile, coming up, look, we're going to be taking the pulse of the crypto VC industry.

Speaker 3

Remember when we only used to talk about crypto. Now it's all talking about AI.

Speaker 5

Where's the intersection in that pitchfook crypto and it's going to be with us of course, I'm at they and what are you watching?

Speaker 4

Yeah, yeah, snowflake, I'm looking to shares the snowflake down one point six six percent another name kind of at the intersection of Cloud Enterprise and AI not a lot in the news flow, but I would note that Frank sloopmanco and chairman did put a regulatory filing in Friday night to exis size options and some insider selling going on in that name, So that could be one of the factors impacting the stock to the downside. We keep looking.

This is Bloomberg Technology. Global VC funding into crypto in the second quarter of twenty twenty three was the lowest amount since twenty twenty. Meanwhile, AI is the green shoe. Every single VC here on Bloomberg Technology is talking about let's bringing bloomberg'snnah Mila. Who's been going off over the data? This is data from pitchbook largely. What does it tell us?

Speaker 12

Yeah, so we've seen a continued steep decline in crypto venture funding, especially compared to last year. So it's the worst quarter.

Speaker 3

Since twenty twenty.

Speaker 12

We thought maybe it had bottomed out, that you know, funding would pop back up.

Speaker 3

That has not happened.

Speaker 12

So, you know, I think vcs are looking for a way to reignite interests in the crypto industry, and founders are scrambling to get you know funding when they.

Speaker 5

Can okay, Hanna, So where's the legit intersection of AI and crypto?

Speaker 12

You know, it's hard to tell because it's so nascent. You know, you have people arguing that crypto and blockchain can bring more decentralization to AI, which is really dominated by a few companies right now. But the companies that are building in the intersection of crypto and AI and AI are still very nason They're still working on stuff, they haven't released anything yet, so it's kind of hard to tell whether this will carry through and whether crypto and AI can go hand in hand.

Speaker 4

I want to show the data just for the United States focused on AI because when we consider global investments the US and what we're seeing on our screen now, thirty one billion dollars a year today is most of global spend.

Speaker 12

Yeah, So with AI, you know people are interested in invest thing in it that there are these deals that are happening in the space. You know, there was a slight declined quarter over quarter, but overall, you know, things are happening here in the space.

Speaker 5

How do you talk about how the startups themselves are pivoting trying to sort of show that prowess in the intersection of AI and crypto. But what about the dedicated funds to crypto investing the vcs, how are they allocating at the moment because a lot of them have a lot of overhang from money lost in previous rounds or thought.

Speaker 12

Yeah, so a lot of these crypto venture funds they have mandates that require them to back the space, so they're obviously still going to be deploying capital and they're looking for ways, you know, to spend their money wisely, and some of them are being drawn to this intersection of crypto and AI and looking at companies like you know, Tools for Humanity, which developed world coin, as well as Jensen, which is developing a decentralized marketplace based on blockchain for

compute power world coin.

Speaker 5

If in doubt back some outmen, it seems to be the takeaway, and I thank you very much. Indeed really great to have a perspective to build up to what is now an integral conversation with Pitchbooks, cryptoanalyst from it Lay, who I'm pleased to say is right here in New York.

Speaker 3

And but we were hearing there about.

Speaker 5

What a dial quarter it was for crypto VC and for crypto allocations.

Speaker 3

Does any of it look better going into Q three.

Speaker 13

Do you think honestly, we think it will look better. Like Hannah just mentioned, a lot of these crypto VC funds, they have to deploy capitals into space. Part of the slowdown is that the diligence cycles just slow down. So you look at in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, some of those deals were happening in a one week or two week time frame.

Speaker 9

And that i e.

Speaker 4

Not much utilis exactly right.

Speaker 13

And so now investors are taking the time meeting the teams, meeting the founders, understanding the business model, understand their product, product market fit, and then they're going to deploy capital. What we're looking at and talking about those crypto venture funds last year alone, there's twenty five billion dollars raised for crypton EATA funds. That tabital has to be deployed over the next two to four years year. So investors have some time because they just raised those fresh funds

in twenty twenty two. But we think that as investors start to get comfortable with the different business models, the different opportunities in the crypto space, they're going to start to deploying more and then our outlook at the beginning of the years that we're going to see an uptick in the second half of twenty twenty three, and it's going to bottom up around sometime in the summer. And we're seeing that right now.

Speaker 4

It's so interesting to compare and contrast what's happening right now in AI and what happened in crypto. Ashton Kutcher was on Bloomberg Technology a few weeks ago saying he raised his two hundred and thirty two million dollar fund in just five weeks. And we're basically talking about crypto so broadly, just like we talk about AI broadly. Are there any bright spots, specific areas in the underlying technology or marketplaces where there is still activity for crypto.

Speaker 13

Yeah, there are a few areas that investors are still really excited about and deploying capital in right now. And it's really three categories. Infrastructure, so you look at the underlying blockchains and the scaling solutions to make the blockchains faster and having higher throughput, the service providers.

Speaker 9

So you think about a lot of.

Speaker 13

Institutional traditional financial institutions are still moving into.

Speaker 9

The cryptal space.

Speaker 13

And we just heard about black Rock and Fidelity refiling for the Bitcoin spot ETF. So there's a lot of institutional interests. So what are the technologies and software and services you can provide to help institutions move into the space. Custodiums is one type of technology, or prime brokerage or trading services, anything that can help them better facilitate their interests into the space and providing service to their customers.

And the last area is what we call when we just wrote research on this space, it's called decentralized physical infrastructure networks. I know, it's a really long term. We call it deep in, and it's any kind of real world infrastructure that can facilitate token to be able to provide services. So you can think about decentralized servers, mobile networks, or decentralized servers.

Speaker 9

Hannah just mentioned Jensen.

Speaker 13

They do a decentralized computing for training AI models. That's just an example, and they can use tokens to have anyone that has a computer can help facilitate and contribute power and compute to that.

Speaker 5

Network, kind of like an AI version of file coin exactly.

Speaker 9

That's exactly what they're doing.

Speaker 5

I'm interested in where these things are getting built because crypto is decentralized. It's also global, and there was a bit of sort of regulatory arbitrage going on at one point. Is that still happening as some of the founders moving off going out of the US.

Speaker 13

Honestly, we that is the narrative. We just don't see that happening. We think that the talent largely is still here in the US. A lot of the founders are still building here and they're recruiting talent here in the US. You know, a lot of folks talk about the strict regulations that is happening right now with you know, the sec, CFTC, the FED all coming after crypto, that I think is not going to push founders to move abroad.

Speaker 9

And I give you a quick example.

Speaker 13

We know in Europe typically their regulations are a lot more progressive. You know, even with fintech. You let a PSC two and open banking that happened a few years ago. A lot of folks that that fintech innovation is going to move to Europe.

Speaker 9

We never saw that happen.

Speaker 13

Still a lot of the fintech innovations happening here in the US, so we expect the same for crypto.

Speaker 5

Now we have an end so all our talk of the founders leaving not happening.

Speaker 4

But things can move so quickly, right, Yeah, I guess the question I have, Robert, is when's the rebound for crypto come? What moves the needle?

Speaker 13

Yeah, it's going to be mostly the funding, Okay, because scarps are now they need funding to grow and scale.

Speaker 9

So what point will investors get comfortable?

Speaker 13

And our call still holds is that it's going to be sometime towards the end of this year. So as what investors are looking at, what projects are building the strongest products out there, and what are their under line business models and how are they getting product market fit? And then the ones that are going to get that are going to get the funding. And we're going to expect to see that towards the end of this year.

So you know, the rebound's hard to say, but we're hoping sometime next year, early twenty twenty five, we're going to start seeing a lot more capital and more founders coming into space to build.

Speaker 4

Pagebild crypto analyst Robert lay with the banqward looking data but also the forward looking forcust Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Time now we're going viral.

Speaker 5

It still is one hundred million people are saying it's Threads, It's going viral.

Speaker 3

There has been.

Speaker 5

Much hype over metas newly launched social media app.

Speaker 3

That has of course Twitter.

Speaker 5

I'm pretty high alert analysts over at ever CORESI estimate that Threads could actually need two hundred million daily active users and generate about eight billion dollars in revenue by twenty twenty five. Now, no eight billion per year for the next couple of years.

Speaker 4

Ed.

Speaker 3

That is about a drop in the ocean of.

Speaker 5

The one hundred and fifty billion in revenue that Meta as a parent company brings in.

Speaker 3

But okay, it's more than Twitter was making.

Speaker 4

But how do we reconcile that it will ever make money? Because if you think about it, just in allow producers, just as stus, when does it become Twitter? The early engagements I've had on Threads is everyone saying, we like that there's no ads, we like that it's just text, simple platform.

Speaker 5

I'm sure, but we all said that about all of the previous and then we slowly but surely realize that that is the quid pro quo. You use it, you of course have to pay for it in some way.

Speaker 3

It can't just be free.

Speaker 5

But I think what's more for a stumbling rot for me is the decentralized element of it. We know that it's not part of the feederverse quite here yet, but eventually it will be. And what does that mean for putting advertising within well, the use on its own servers and the like, and what does it mean when it becomes more distributed?

Speaker 4

And Elon Musk has kind of leaned into that in his jabs on Twitter over the weekend, some of which he directed at Mark Zuckerberg. The complaint that I that I hear people thread me about is also discoverability. How do you find communities and groups that you want to share a conversation with? But it's a simple platform, and I love that We're already talking about how much money is this going to make? Well, according to Evercore eight billion by twenty twenty five.

Speaker 5

Nice, I mean that is what financial journalists do. It all comes back to the money, isn't it. But to that point, it's also still a baby, and they kind of probably slightly rushed it coming to the fall because they were capitalizing on kind of difficult moment for Twitter.

Speaker 3

They will start to have hashtags, I'm sure.

Speaker 5

Who knows when they have a competitor to spaces and we can do go cross platform and that one too.

Speaker 4

It's just a baby. I won't do the voice, but it's grown fast, one hundred million uses in a week.

Speaker 5

What can you say helps when they're just easily porting over from Instagram. I meanwhile, that does it for this edition of Really Bag Technology. And look, John Felton, he's going to be joining Amazon SVP Worldwide Operation, going to be talking Amazon's shopping extravaganza.

Speaker 3

It's prim Day. You don't want to miss that conversation.

Speaker 4

Yeah, And if you missed any of today or you want to recap, don't forget about the podcast. There's a lot going on in every show, from AI to what's happening in hardware and video games. So the podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart, and of course on our Bloomberg platforms. We have a massive week in the world of technology coming up from here in San Francisco and out in New York with Caroline. This is Bloomberg Technology

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