We're from Marhart where Innovation, money and power Collie in Silicon Vallet NBN.
This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Lovedlove.
I med Lodlow in San Francisco. Caroline hides at Bloomberg invest. But this is Bloomberg Technology coming up. Full ev coverage ahead as Rivian and VW forge a five billion dollar partnership. Plus the Supreme Court clears the way for the White House communicating freely with social media companies to seek the
removal of what officials see as misinformation. And we go live to our Bloomberg invest summit, where heavyweights across the financial industry break down the most pressing issues facing investors right.
Here, right now.
Let's get right to our story, and that is a deal between Rivian Automotive and Volkswagen. The shares really taking off in after hours. They were even higher on Tuesday night. Rivian, as it stands, is trading at its highest level since February. If it closes at this level, it will be the biggest gain one day on record.
Although I'd caution.
Following the IPO in November twenty twenty one, we did see swings in excess of fifty percent, and it did not close near those levels. This is a company that I've covered very closely for years. Have to be honest
that I didn't see this one coming. Basically, in the first instance, Volkswagen will invest one billion dollars into Rivian in the form of a convertible unsecured or unstructured note due December one of this year, and then commits to investing one billion dollars in twenty twenty five one billion dollars in twenty twenty six, but we don't know where
this share price will be at that time. Of Rivian right in return, they form a JV, but Volkswagen gets access to Rivian's technology, both software and some elements of the dry train or power train. This is a big one for the EV industry. Let's get into detail with Stephanie vauders Street. Stephanie is the director of Industry Insights
at Coxauto Motive, a quick disfamer. Cox Enterprise, which is the parent company of Coxhau's Motive, is an investor in Rivian, and Sandy Schwartz, CEO of the Cox Family Office, a member of the Rivian board of directors. But we have Stephanie here for her expertise on this company, these companies, and expertise on this industry. So let's start with the basic Stephanie, your reaction to this deal well, and I think.
You hit it when you said this was an unexpected announcement and it's making ways for the industry, and I think it's huge. It's a breakthrough moment for Rivian. As you know, we've been following Rivian also, and although they've made some really good progress in the market with their products, with their customer experience, you know, being becoming profitable has been a big issue, and so this investment is huge.
It's going to help them really become get on that road to profitability, especially as they're trying to launch the n R two, which is a very critical vehicle for them in terms of affordability in the marketplace and kind of in that segment where there's more volume. So I think this is a huge moment and I think for
VW as well. Right having access to that cutting edge technology, and I think the opportunities for a global expansion for both companies is really really going to be a positive for both.
When the news broke last night, I took a few phone calls and What was so interesting is very quickly a few folks close to Rivian and at Rivian and elsewhere in the industry would point out to me Volkswagen's software strategy has not gone that well. They kind of formed carry AD, the unit and the carry AD platform. I'm told they face some major issues. How much do you think this is sort of Volkswagen reacting to that versus actually pretty much an acknowledgment that Rivian is good at software.
Yeah, I think it's I think it's both what Volkswagen's you know, acknowledging that Rivine has his cutting into technology is going to really help them to scale. And I even think about broader, like if you think about the Chinese outmakers and just kind of with the penetration that they've had and the technology that they've had. So I think this is going to really help VW not only
in the North American market, but globally as well. So I think they really saw that this is something that's really going to help their brand and really scale, help them scale faster and more efficiently.
I have to be honest with you, Stephanie, Rivian's track record in joint ventures is not good. You know, I've been covering this company since the moment that RJA was on stage at the LA Auto Show and revealed to the world that he had to pick up an suv. And within you know, three or four years after that, the Ford JV had been and gone. Ford invested five hundred million in Rivian and then they plan to build a Lincoln together. They scrapped it. They plan to build
a joint venture EV together, they scrapped it. The Mercedes relationship on commercial vans lasted three months. How much of a cautionarytail is that for Volkswagen.
No.
I definitely think they need to be cautious, especially in it's two distinct companies, right, and they need to constantly make sure that their strategic goals are aligned. So I think to your point, it's going to be you know, it's going to be a long bumpy road, but I think they're going to have to be very focused on making sure they're aligned and kind of what you just
mentioned about some of the failures in the past. So I think it's definitely something a risk, right that they need to clo closely follow and make sure that they're aligned.
You and I spoke very recently about market share, so Rivian is going to come to market in twenty twenty six with R two and that probably will be a competitor for existing models like the Model Why. But at the same time, Tesla is seeding some market share in North America and other markets, there's more models join the market. How are you tracking that and how do you see that going?
Yeah, I definitely see like all about product right, customers like new product, and with Rivian having the R two R three adding more vehicles into the marketplace, I think that's going to really in terms of like Tesla not having anything other than recently the cyber truck and no definitive timeline for the more vehicle, I think Tesla definitely has more and more competition, and not only with Rivi
and VW but other makes as well. So I definitely think Tesla is really going to need to get some product into the market to maintain that share that they've had for many, many years.
I've got a stat for you for the twelve months through May, Tesla sold six hundred and eighteen thousand electric vehicles in the United States. All of the other manufacturers combined sold ABV five hundred and ninety seven thousand, so at some point, I.
Think we expect that to cross, right.
But the question it raises is one that Scarringe has argued with me about over many years. He says that this isn't an issue of interest rates or necessarily or tepid consumer appetite towards EBS. Generally, he argues, we need more models. The more models we have on the market, the better the market will be.
Do you share that thesis?
Yeah, I think we need more models, but more affordable markets. Right, if we want mass adoption, we need to have more affordable models. Price is the top barrier for consumer adoption, and so as we have more and more affordable markets our models in the marketplace, that's going to help with adoption. So I think I agree with that more models, but more affordable models is going to be critical.
Cost your eye to the future. What happens with Ribby and Stephanie.
I'm betting on them. I think they have a lot of good brand equity in the marketplace. I think the VW partnership is really a lot of great potential, and I think their collaboration can really evolve this whole connected up, devined vehicle technology, and so I think I think it's promising, but like being just mentioned, I think they just need to be careful that their strategic goals are aligned in their lockstep in.
True definitely about as Stephanie, about as Stretty of cocksurces motive. I just appreciate your insight, not just to Rivian VW, which I think caught us by surprise, but the industry at large as well.
Thank you so much.
Okay, let's turn to some breaking news that's come out in the last hour. The Supreme Court cleared the Biden administration to communicate freely with social media companies in an election year, which rules that bolsters the government's ability to seek removal of what official seat is misinformation. I want
to bring in Bloombergs Katie Lions out of Washington, DC. Kaylee, you know I saw the headline cross and I've just read the interest to you, and I'm trying to understand the mechanics and bigger picture of this story.
Explain it to me, Well, technically.
This is a win for the White House. You're exactly why, and that it leaves the door open for them to communicate freely with social media companies about content that they see as misinformation that could potentially be harmful to the public.
This case all started with questions around the administration's activity with social media companies and trying to control information related to the COVID nineteen pandemic and the twenty twenty election, and the plaintiffs in this case essentially argued that they overstepped the constitutional bounds of the right to free speech. The thing is, in this ruling, which was six to three, the majority opinion, written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, doesn't
actually talk about the merits of the case. It's about standing. They essentially argue that the plaintiffs, which included two states and a handful of residents within those states, did not have the standing to be bringing this case because they couldn't demonstrate that they were directly injured by the defendants, which, of course, in this case is is the Biden administration. So this is kind of similar to the myth ofpristone ruling we got earlier this month, where they didn't actually
decide necessarily definitively on access to that abortion pill. It was just that the individuals, the people that brought the case, did not have standing, which is why they ruled in favor of keeping access to it, so it leaves the door open ed for this question to still be raised again in the future, technically by plaintiffs who may have more firm ground to stand on.
There's an interesting case of what happens next because per the ruling, you know, the administration could go out and engage with the companies and talk to them freely. That is the top line of the story. Whether they do or not remains to be seen, because in October there was a temporary holp per the courts, and as we keep going out it is an election year, what does Biden and co.
Do?
It's an excellent question ed, and we're just going to have to wait and see, because of course all of this is going to be viewed through a political lens. There is a huge conservative thought in which the three ultra conservative justices who dissented in this decision, Thomas Alito and Neil Gorsich that do think the administration may be violating the race of free speech, specifically restricting the speech
of the right and of more conservatives. And this is something that we see trickling through all all through American politics at this time, all the way up to the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. So these decisions for the administration to be engaging with social media companies on what content can be propagated and seen by the people is very much politically tingent. I would just note ed it isn't just about what the administration does, but what social
media companies themselves do. And I would point you to the fact that we are still waiting and ruling this term from the Supreme Court, so it should come within the next several days on laws in the states of Texas and Florida that restrict the ability of the social media companies themselves to police misinformation in the Court has yet to rule on that particular question.
Bloombo's Katie Lyons, co host of Balance of Power, I watch Balance of Power and our Bloomberg Technology audience should as well.
Thank you so much. Kay. Coming up on this show, we're going to be joined.
By Jack Maller's CEO Strike to discuss the launch of the global Bitcoin app in my home country, the United Kingdom. I'm also taking a look at shares of guess what in Nvidia actually softer again down too point seven percent. Let's call it a rollercoaster ride. We were down three days straight with a technical correction. We rebounded and now we're down again two point five percent. There is the Annual General Meeting taking place straight after this program. Usually
it's not a news event. Usually it's not that closely followed. But I wonder if this time it may well be. I'll be on hand, and so will Bloomberg Zy and King be right back. This is Bloomberg Technology. Okay, time for talking tech and first st up CME readies for trading.
Via the cloud.
Google will work with the exchange operator to build out a new network that would move futures and options trading to the cloud. The two firms will develop new facilities next to CMEs existing data centers, with construction due to start later this year. Plus Bank's AI ambition start with healthcare. Founder Massaoshi's son is set to host a panel with doctors and medical professionals on way to harness AI for
the health sector. One company he's expected to bring up is tempers Ai, a US startup that's backed by some of a soft bank that analyzes medical data. And South Korean chipmakers are about to get a financial boost. The country is going to inject nineteen billion dollars in support to build out.
The semiconductor industry.
Starting in July, eligible firms could tap the program at the market's lowest rates. This comes as countries worldwide and moving to make chips locally due to global supply chain concerns. Those are some of the news stories we're following. I want to get to the world of crypto. The global bitcoin app Strike has now launched in the United Kingdom. Delighted to say that Strike CEO Jack Mallers joins us now here on Bloomberg Technology. I found this so interesting
without boring you with it. You know, I moved to America six years ago, but at that time when I was covering technology, London in particular, I would say, and the consumer base was much more focus on fintech and crypto than perhaps other areas of technology. Six years on, you guys have made the move to that market.
Why.
I think, simply put, we view bitcoin as a paradigm shift. I think bitcoin is the first time humans have come across perfect money as we know it, and the world needs a global bitcoin company that's going to help them and provide them the financial services to adopt it. And so I think we are the most accessible, global and most performant bitcoin business in the world, like compared to a coinbase. We don't focus on a thousand other cryptos
and our own blockchains and stuff. We just make sure that people have an amazing experience adopting the best money of all time. So that's why the people in the UK need bitcoin.
Brother come on, well, well, Jack, I find that interesting though. So if you think about Strike as a platform or an app, what you will You can do several things, right, You can buy and sell bitcoin, you can make lightning payments, there's other functionality. But is there a specific use case that you think people of the United Kingdom will use most? In other words, was there a clear demand for a specific function Yeah?
Well, I think bitcoin's the best performance asset in the history of our species, and so people want the best experience. That's kind of our baseline and we've become that and that's why we've been on such a tear expanding globally as everyone wants our product.
I think that where we.
Are in this market cycle, given the geopolitical backdrop and the macroeconomics and this upcoming election, is people need to buy it. There's gonna be a lot of new capital that is going to come into this asset class.
It's my prediction.
I've told you I think bitcoin's going to land somewhere between two hundred and fifty thousand to a million dollars per coin over the next twelve months or so. And so that is the highest volume product we have is people that call us and say, I need this thing?
Can you help?
One of the headwinds or challenges what you've hauted lined and yes you've outlined it before on the kind of direction of travel bitcoin is regulation and oversight. You know, we're focused on the UK. It's just one market in
the one hundred or so you operate in. But what was that experience like launching in the UK having to work with post Brexit regulators who, as we've discussed a lot on this Showjack, they have tried to be strong right, particularly on newer areas of markets or nascent technology.
You know what, Ed listen, I think that there's everyone can agree, both regulators and us. There's a lot of work to do on education, and there's definitely efficiencies and progress we can all make. But the fact that we're bitcoin only, I can say, was huge. No one is diligencing the fact that we're creating our own tokens. If something is a security, if I'm acting unethically, I build and sell the most honest performance money in the history of our species. And it's a very simple business. It's
a very honest business. It's a very moral and integral business. And so it's been rather simple. While other businesses are retracting from markets and getting sued by regulators, we're not. And I think it has a lot to do with the fact that we're built on principle and I founded this business because I think bitcoin's going to change the world and I want to help. And so with that context, it was fine. It was fine, and we're pleased with the launch.
Jack really quickly. We never really talk about Strike as a company. Are you going to be employing people in the UK? Have you've grown your staffing there? Have you got yourself a nice office? What does it look like?
Yes, we will.
Strike's growing a lot. We though, take this approach where we have two businesses. We have our operating company and then we have our treasury business, and we buy as
much bitcoin as we possibly can. So Strikes a profitable, growing business and we sweep those profits into bitcoin over ninety percent of our treasury is actually in bitcoin, so the cost of capital is against bitcoin, so we only deploy capital and the things that we think can outcompete bitcoin, which is at an annualized average of sixty three percent of the last ten years. So we're delicate with how
we invest. But of course I mean Strokes and Monster and we're going to keep porn capital and do it as long as people keep medcoining us strike.
CEO Jack Mallards appreciate your time as always, Thank you so much time now for our weekly AI in Action segment, and today we're looking at the field of legal AI. Robin Ai works to enhance efficiency by automating much of the due diligence process that's involved in M and A. The company also announced their new product line, robin Ai Reports this month.
Delighted.
Welcome back to the program, CEO Richard Robinson.
I think you and i've discussed this in the past.
Like I am a student of the law, went to law school, family of attorneys, and thank goodness I didn't become one, but I get the point of robin Ai. Let's start with the new product line, the Reports l What is it and why did you feel the need to bring it out.
Yeah. Sure.
When I was a lawyer, one of the most painful things I ever had to do is something most lawyers spend their time doing is working through hundreds and hundreds of contracts trying to summarize those agreements.
For our clients.
People want to know what's inside all of these documents before they do a transaction, and unfortunately in the past, we've just never had technology to help us, and so we employ armies of associates through the night, week in, week out to basically go through these documents line by line looking for risks that they can report. And so we said, why can't we build something that uses AI to do that for us? That's essentially what our reports product does.
The field of legal AI is widely discussed. We recognize a two horse race. Basically, you have an association with Anthropic. There is another legal AI named Harvey. We've had on this closely aligned to open Ai. In fact, I think open ai made it an equity investment in them.
You're going to win that race, of course.
I mean we are legal AI for business and Harvey and open ai are really focused on law firms, and we think that's interesting but what motivates us is trying to help companies like Bloomberg, like General Electric, like PwC, helping them do their work faster, unleashing them to grow in ways that they can't today because in the absence of the right technology, managing legal risks is just time consuming. It's expensive. But if you use tools like ours, we have customers saving ninety.
Percent at the time.
Could I have some data, then, how many M and A transactions has robin Ai facilitated for example?
Yeah, I mean we've been involved. It's worth saying we've been doing this for nearly five years now. I mean we support M and A transactions. We've fort about one thousand transactions a month already for some of the world's biggest companies, for five of the Fortune five hundred, for seven of the top one hundred funds.
In the world.
We've been really working with business since twenty nineteen, long before LMS, to help them use AI to accelerate deals, and working with Anthropic has just helped us expand our reach and focus.
Robin Ai CEO, Richard Robinson, it's great to have you back on the program and keeping us up to date.
Thank you so much coming up.
Mike Run's out with earnings later today, and we have all the details on what to expect next, plus getting a bit hands on with some of the tech. We're also looking at shares of Paramount, a headline out this morning discussion about Paramount looking at global options global partnerships for streaming services. The saga continues about the future of Paramount, its assets, ownership and what happens. But for now, the stock's down one point three percent in the session.
It's a story.
I'm sure we'll continue to track in the next few weeks because from an m and A perspective, or even just a street of perspective, is something that I know audience really cares about.
Stay with us a lot more to come on the show. This is Bloomberg.
We got hands on with Nvidia's AI accelerator, the H one hundred, but this.
Little one is pretty important too.
It's Micron's HBM three E, the high bandwidth memory chip used to power AI workloads. The text revolutionary for the industry because it allows for high speed data transfers and more capacity, both bottlenecks in developing AI. Producing the chips is complex, but the payoff is great for Micron, Samsung, and other players. The Micron chip's smaller and thinner than a penny. It's key to training lllms for generative AI. Basically, the more data you can serve up more quickly, the
better the model gets. There are eight layers of DRAM or memory, stacked on top of each other. Each layer is three gigabytes, so together you get twenty four gigabytes. The reason that Micron's HBM three or high Bowandwidth memory is important is that in the AI context, it solves for a problem called the memory wall.
To train the lms.
Behind chat GPT, for example, you need to be able to process a large amount of data very quickly.
As AI workloads.
Increase and in Vidia releases new higher performance AI chips like Blackwell, the memory demands also increase. This year, Micron also released a higher capacity chip that stacks twelve layers of d rams, so thirty six gigabytes of memory. The two look identical when placed side by side. Each layer is made thinner to provide more memory without taking up more physical space. The next in our series of getting hands on with semiconductors, a quick look at Micron shares
softer be half a percentage point. Micron is scheduled to release its third quarter results after the market closes today, and a big focus on like, when's the AI story going to hit in top line growth here with expectations is Bloomberg Intelligence and Jake Silverman, you know, we focus HBM three or high bandwidth memory, but that's where the street's looking as well.
Right, Yes, certainly investors are definitely going to be looking at expectations for high bandwidth memory growth for Micron, both in fiscal twenty four but also looking at calendar twenty twenty five. Micron's management has we think is a pretty reasonable goal of reaching mid twenty percent bitchhare for HBM by twenty twenty five.
So historically, Jake, you know, memory is a kind of highly cyclical and almost commoditized piece of technology. Does AI change that, because in the context of AI accelerators or GPUs, we just talk about this addressable market and exponential growth curve.
Yeah, so it's definitely different.
You definitely don't have the same commodity like cycles, the same commodity like expectations for HBM that we would typically see with memory markets. This is definitely a secular trend that's really being driven by AI, and in terms of HBM capacity, they're actually supply cans train right now memory suppliers, so they're getting they're getting margin advantages right now relative
to standard DRAMs. So as as HBM continues to grow in terms of revenue, that should also lead to margin expansion for memory suppliers as well.
I'm really interested in how much Sanjay Morotra, the CEO, gives us a crystal ball into the future because in the first day instance, HBM three goes with H two hundred generation of Nvidia's AI accelerator. But in the future, yeah, Blackwell, Like, maybe he'll tell us how much money they make. But I'm interested in the landscape. You know, Samsung is looking at high band with memory. You have sk Heinex. You know what where does Micron sit in that competitive field?
Yeah?
Yeah, so sk Heinix has been the leader. They've really been sort of the sole supplier to in Vida's H one hundred chip. But as we look at H two hundred, Micron seems to have gained a decent amount of shared there, and we're expecting Micron to gain share into their Blackwell chip as well. But that's not the only opportunity for Micron as well, they can continue to gain share in other GPUs accelerators. There's a lot of options AMDs as
well as one example, Google's TPU is another opportunity. All of those chips require high BANDWTH memory.
There is some other stuff that we should talk about, I mean, DRAM generally nand or flash memory. What are some of the other important areas of Micron's business.
Yeah, so there's also i mean, you know, staying on the topic of AI as well. Aside from HBM, they actually still have products that are related to AI growth, high capacity memory modules for DRAM, enterprise SSDs, all of those are starting to see an inflection related to AI revenue.
But generally speaking, the market just looks a lot healthier as we think about supply construs and limited capacity this year and potentially into next year as well, we're expecting pricing to continue to increase for non eight AI related products for Micron.
Okay, put you on the spot.
What are we expecting that give me the top line growth numbers and where b I sees the print this evening.
Yeah, so we think that Micron will report above the mid range of guidance for both revenue and earnings, and as prices continue to increase throughout this year, that could lead to upward estimate revisions across the street for this year and potentially next year as well.
You are new to the show BlueBag Technology, but we're grateful to have you. What else are you working on in the field of memory right now? You know, it's a big coverage area. We talked about how historically it behaves like a commodity, and it's also a global industry as well.
Yeah, so we've already done an HBM sort of market forecast that goes out five years to twenty twenty eight, So that's something that we're continuously tracking and looking at. But on top of that, we're also just looking at for non AI related products, what capacity is going to look like throughout this year and next year, to try to understand what that supply demand balance looks like.
So that's just.
Ongoing work that we're continuously looking at how that impacts pricing and ultimately demand for the company's products.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jake Silman. As you can tell, I could talk about the memory market all day long.
Thank you.
Now, Bloomberg invest is underway in New York. Let's get to the live event. Our very own Caroline Hide is sitting down with Canvas Ventures Rebecca Lynch and Licos Globals Management's Nick Laster.
And general partner at Canvas Ventures with Bloomberg's Caroline Hide.
To have two people kind of at either end of the spectrum here when it comes to private investing, going into public investing and I want to sort of launch trade in what on earth it is like to be writing checks at either rent at the moment. So with the Lucas of course, Nick, you are looking much more at the late stage rounds IPOs maybe just very recently gone public companies. And then Rebecca with you you're more in the series A the series B.
So Rebecca kick us off. Yeah. Is it competitive?
You know it is competitive, But for how we approach the market, we we really have a lot of runway in front of us because we spend a lot of time on our core investment thesis. And now with Jenai, which who hasn't heard of that.
I've never heard of it, never heard of it.
There are so many really interesting opportunities from founders that have done multiple exits in the past, multiple companies and so we've done three this year and the pricing is back down to wait, you know, pre twenty one levels, all with the Jenai focus. But you have to really know what you're looking for and you have to know what to avoid.
Okay, So, Nick, if we're looking at Lucas's approach right now, of course come out of soare us raising our own fund already? In call we for example, which is one of the pin ups in Ai.
Was that a hustle to get into How competitive it was?
I think it's the earnest is on investors to do something other than just write a check, because capital is something of a commodity for us, and particularly with Corey I, Mike, Brandon, Bryan, it came down to our ability to help them tell their story in a way that was going to resonate as they transitioned to public markets.
Job net.
But no, it's an exceptional asset.
We were humble to partner with them, but it requires investors to hone and clearly articulate their value prop.
So we already have brought up jen Ai. So, Nick, if a company right now is that the upper ends of raising money actually might even be eyeing the public markets, does jenerator, AI have to be in their story. That's your key selling point, and you can help companies tell a story.
Does that have to pH b at AI story?
It certainly doesn't hurt.
I think companies that have AI exposure credible AI story are certainly in a very different situation when it comes to IPO demand. If you look at deals this year to come to mind both successes Reddit and a Steri Labs march IPOs Astera was a pure play AI narrative and Reddit was a complimentary AI narrative.
They're up sixty to eighty percent.
But irrespective of whether or not you have a credible AI story, if you're a CEO, if you're a founder thinking about growing public in the next two to three years, I think the things that really matter identifying partners that you can see yourself growing with, building a robust finance function, and identifying the KPIs that are going to drive value not only today but going forward always going to be public market demand AI or not for businesses that have
durable growth, strong unit economics, and a MINUSIGHTE on free cash flow.
Does that also ring true in the Series A Series B Space in the moment back how much you looking at the public valuations and having to either downround it or actually a company is managing to grow into their valuations in that stage.
Oh for our for our companies. So for us, we're early growth, so we're Series A and B when the companies have a product we can get our hands on, and then what we're really good at is helping them scale and develop.
Their go to market and that like a strategic consultant.
Just like you said, companies now really, especially the experienced CEOs, more than ever, are looking for investors, whether it be my stage or ors that can really be a partner with them and help them strategically go through the process right. And so it's very important for us that you know, I always tell founders they need to know where they would land the plane if they had to, right.
And how that would work.
And so we work very early on and like what would it mean to be profitable?
What people in our ecosystem do?
We need to actually partner with very early and we encourage our founders to go out and do that years before the IPO word even comes into their into their board deck, you know, to really think outside of their existing company and think very strategically.
Rebecca.
On that note, how often are those partnerships becoming MNA opportunities rather than actually going public vira Ipo.
Well, and MNA opportunity almost always comes from a partnership. It almost never comes from a cold start in a sale process. And just last year a case text was bought by Thompson Reuters right for six hundred and fifty million, biginning, playing big probably I would say the most still the most robust implementation of GPT four that exist, and they did that because of partnership opportunities, both with all of
the AILM players. They've been in that space for a decade, right, so they were they had the sandbox of GPT four in July twenty two, and that comes from these really strategic outreach outreach emotions that they did, and then Thomson Reuters knew them well just because of you know, their outreach they had done and the partnerships they'd done.
This in the ecosystem, what's interesting is we're seeing some rather novel types of partnerships and normal types of M and A actually going from at the moment, Nick, I mean, you're in core weave. As we mentioned, they're trying to acquire an asset at the moment, but more than looking at the large language model plays open AI having relationships with Microsoft and others, but then you're also seeing anthropic
being funded by Google and Amazon and having partnerships. Then you get acquihires like we've just seen in Inflection.
I think it's called AI money laundering is one of the posts that came out.
Right, I love that item.
She said, there were some there were some you know articles out there about that that were pretty interesting.
Actually, what would you say of these partnerships and M and A opportunities of this at the later stage.
Yeah, I think look in aggregate it speaks to how integral these smaller private players are to hyper scale AI platforms and offering end to end solutions and capabilities to their customers. As it relates to the Inflection and Microsoft, I think it also speaks to the regulatory climate, right that was positioned and structured as an investment to license their model. You're also seeing a pickup in deal terms,
you know, regulatory break freeze and the like. It's going to be harder for big tech to do big M.
And A.
Is it regulatory well, And we saw that too with case Tex.
I mean, Thomson Reuters came out just months beforehand and said that AI would completely disrupt their entire business, and they acquired case tax and case tex by the way, I already had ten thousand of their own.
Users, but they needed.
That experience in that platform really for their business going forward. And I think we're going to see more and more tech M and A or for that reason from these very big players.
Interesting, let's use case text as a case study, because you what wrote the check into that in twenty sixteen. So this isn't an overnight success. But we do feel that general to AI has sprung off out of nothing, and so I mean there's a fight to get into these companies and valuations that just feel so extreme. How are you rationalizing what is a good AI opportunity or not?
Yeah, no, it's a great question.
So we've been in let's say, not jenab Ai machine learning since we did theory when we're the first investors there, and then we've had a number of outcomes including figure eight Luminar innai. And you know, although it feels like it came out overnight, right and really the algorithms started like twenty seventeen and so the companies that were best positioned to take advantage of GPT four were companies that
were already in the space. I mean, case texts because they were taking the place of a legal counsel had to be really the bleeding edge of because they were writing text right and so they had access into all of that, and it was an evolution over time. But I've got to tell you GPT four was just like
a light switch. And the best comp and explanation I have is the case text team had tried to pass the California Bar with GPT three point five and the best they could ever get it to do was roughly thirty percent, you know, score pathetic, although the California State Bar and the average of sixty eight so also not great.
Thanks the excelloise exactly.
But when they put GPT four against it, it was ninety four percent, which was better than the lawyers.
And that was in a very very short period of time.
So I think we just saw this step change incredibly suddenly, and the company's best position to take advantage of it were companies like a ship, they already in steerage and momentum going into it, and they could pick up the technology and plug it into their existing systems and customer base rapidly.
Look, it was a light switch, and it was so a light switch for many a market valuation. And we talk about Nvidia day in, day out, now more than three trillion. I mean it was at one trillion when we started the year. I mean, this is a phenomenal rate of growth. Nick, have you seen equivalents of this? How do you explain this to the LPs coming into your fund as to what the opportunity is for market capitalization growth?
Yeah?
I think if you zoom out and you put this into context, from twenty twelve to twenty twenty one, on the back of extraordinarily low rates, you had USVC investment grow eightfold. It was three hundred and thirty billion and twenty one. You had more unicorns created in twenty twenty one than you had in the prior five years combined. So there are a number of companies that have been over capitalized, if you will, at a different cost of capital, yesterday's cost of when it was Yeah, about half of
the unicorns last raised when rates were below one percent. Well, so those valuations, while stale, can persist as long as cash burn and cash runways permit. There's some good data that's come out recently. They would suggest that about half of the seven hundred and forty unicorns in the US will need to raise by December. So I think it's a question of when, not if.
And are they rebecca the right ones to be betting if they're running out of cash, but they have valuations that I mean need to be downgraded. Who are you looking at that designing the public market but just can't at the last round that they.
Raised that I see, I'm sorry, And yeah, So companies that are in this situation right are going to face just really one of two consequences or three. Unfortunately, one they take their medicine and they take a massive down round and hopefully the investors are on board with a complete recapitalization which restructures the entire company.
And that's one option.
And we're seeing thirty percent of company or fundraising right now on that later stage actually be down round and largely inside lead are disclosed. The ones that are disclosed, yes, other things, other are ways they are doing this. I would say it's much bigger than that. People are just doing.
You know, a note document right which is not disclosed explain that sort of bridge fund. Yeah, so it's bridge funny.
So they do it instead of doing like an equity financing and disclosing that, they do more of a safe note or a bridge of some sort where it's really sort of you know, debt capital going into it more or less, but will take the form of equity. And then the other option is they sell the company to a public company.
Now the problem with that is these.
Companies having incredibly high burn rates, typically not ours, because we try to manage that very well because we've seen the show a couple of times. But you know, company is not going to acquire a company for what the house, you know, is burning five million dollars a month, which some.
Of these still are.
And then the third option is sort of the least favorable, as they just close, they go out and kind of quietly quietly go.
Away, right, a big company camp quietly go away. No.
I mean we saw Convoy, you know, not that long ago, you know, go to zero overnight, and so I think we'll see more of that.
What we might see though, is actually companies taking their medicine nick and deciding to go public at a slightly different valuation than was the previous and we've actually seen that already in Stacar swallowed that bitter pill came to the market and well, people my question as to how
well they've traded since. But I'm interested as to how much you see the opportunity for companies to make that bold step to decide to go public, to become a publicly traded company with all the scrutiny that goes with it.
Yeah, I think there's certainly pros and cons to it.
Look, it's a long road.
I don't think you know an IPO is the end in itself. It's a milestone on a multi year journey, and ultimately, you know their success will be proven out in public markets as they execute. There has been a very acute, if not my opic, focus on headline valuations, but I think slowly you're you're starting to see people reorient and valuation expectations recalibrate.
How long did you.
Stay in a company once it's going public?
Yeah, it's hard to generalize, but look, we like to think about businesses in terms of years, not quarters, and duration is a competitive advantage for us. It's a competitive advantage for CEOs as they try to build something enduring.
How painful is that? And I'm going to bring up a relatively interesting case study of yours. You made your name in many ways, some really incredible bets you made with Soros and the companies that then went public, one of them being Rivian. Now today is a very good news day for Rivian shares a popping about forty percent last time. I look, because they've done a deal with VW, but it's been pretty painful in the interim. How long did you understand that, Look, you've got to stay with
this company for the long term. RJ is going to get us there, but it's not an overnight success.
Yeah.
I think, Look, you're going to find out what type of investors you have when things are not going well. I think that the smart CEOs, the right founders appreciate the value of staying power. There will be missteps, Inevitably, there will be execution faults, but I think the onus is on those companies to communicate in a way where they're straightforward and they're clear and they're transparent. That's what being a public company CEO entails. CFO two part.
And part of your your staying power probably is driven by really knowing the company well and the market and having a really informed pisis about how.
You're seeing it.
And I think that's important for any investor, you know, for for a CEO, to really find an investor that understands that space, that does their own work, that actually goes out and talks to the consumers of that product, I think is so important. And so a few investors actually do that. But that's really what builds conviction for us. Either early stage or later stage. We can often sell really, you know, earlier, or we have to make.
The choice, you know, with case text with figure eight with.
Gabby, with you know, with with Future Advisor. You know, we ought we had term sheets to finance it. And the question is do we finance it and keep going or.
Do we sell? And this is this price the right price?
And that's that's a question that you can only answer if you do the work, just like when you're a public market investor. And it's interesting that, you know, we do see the bad behavior now of investors that were sort of you know, tourist investors that came in and thought it was just you know, you know, throw in some money and cook.
Right, and it's not. It takes a lot of work and you have to really enjoy the.
Job talking of well startups in actually the going public space. I just got a quick poll for you. You've only got a couple of minutes, but you've got a couple of minutes to have an audience participation moment. I want to ask you a question and what you thought about this Texas exchange, which, of course I think Citadel's behind it some other key players. Do you think the newly announced Texas Stock Exchange could potentially compete in the New York Stock Exchange in the NASDAC. I want you to
get voting, use your phones, use the QR code. I oh no, if you think it's not a chance, we could see some market share move southwest. Companies should welcome the competition.
And it's interesting.
We've got a few companies, big privately run companies and publicly run companies moving to Texas or Musks behind.
A lot of them.
And I'm sure he might well be a player of taking companies public over there. But Nick, is it good to have competition in the exchange space as well as competition and actually companies going public?
Look, I think innovation, you know, markets, venues, structures, this is all good for markets, it's good for investors, it's healthy for companies. I think what's interesting about the Texas Stock Exchange it's twofold, it's it's one in attempt to provide public capital to private companies, but it also speaks to some of the onerous burdens of being a public company from a regulatory standpoint on the NYC or NASDAQ.
Great, and sometimes you need that safety net there.
Interestingly, I think we have a few New Yorkers in the run forty percent. The majority of that is not a chance the company is a going to move to Texas to go public. But just as we wind up this conversation, I want you both to give a piece of advice to those who are looking at doing their due diligence, who are wanting to perhaps either get into the private space or into indeed companies that are about
to IPO. What due diligence should they be doing. How to ensure that they're not tourists as you labeled them.
Rebecca, I think you have to talk to the customers.
You have to really understand why the customer, whether it's consumer or enterprise, why the customer is using that product and what their go to market motion truly is significant scale.
It might be easier for a riven or an instacart consumer than perhaps some of the more deep in the weeds ai trades. But Nick, as you're out there sort of crossing the t's donning eyes on LP's committing to your fund, what's your piece of advice that you're saying to them to commit capital you? What would you say for their story you're about to tell?
Well, look, I think everything is downstream of competitive advantage, and that's true for investors, it's true for companies. Aware of your circle of competence and kind of sticking to that is the onness is on investors to do so. If you don't have an edge, shouldn't be participating.
Keep bringing your edges to Bloomberg, keep coming on Bloomberg Technology and across all of our bandwidth and our platforms. It's been enjoyed to be with both of you in front of this wonderful audience today.
Thank you for your participation as well. We love it.
We want to thank Rebecca Linn and Nick Lancaster.
Thank you very much.
Indeed, thank you Carelin That was Canvas Ventures. Rebecca Lynn and lecos Goobal Management. Nick laster along with our own Caroline Hyde. Let's get back very quickly and check on shares of Rivian. Actually, we've paired much of the incredible gain we saw in reven shares after an up to five billion dollar deal JV formation with Volkswagen giving Volkswagen access Serrivian software in tech. That's a two day chart, but in the moment we're up around twenty seven percent.
Even so, shares trading at their highest level since February. Of course, this is a stock that's had a precipitous plumbs decline. Since it's November twenty twenty one, IPO will continue to track it. That does it though, for this edition of Bloomberg Technology. But this Friday, we have Vivek Ramaswami joining me here on Bloomberg Technology. Following the presidential debates.
This is interesting. I've reported that Vivek was an intermediary, a conduit between Elon Musk re engaging with former President Donald Trump. I'm going to ask Vivec about that, and I'm going to ask him about his ambitions for a position in government should former President Trump gain reelection. This was a pretty pretty big show that we had today. We went really big on the Rivian story. We had fantastic guest in Coxword's Moses, but we also can recap
on the podcast. Find it on the Terminal online, Apple, Spotify, and also on iHeart on the Bloomberg platforms. Gosh, what a week has been. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg technology.
He didn't hate it and he didn't help it.
But he didn't help it.
