Intel's Chips Grant, California Vs. Tesla - podcast episode cover

Intel's Chips Grant, California Vs. Tesla

Nov 26, 202443 min
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Episode description

Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde breaks down Intel's $7.9B chips grant from the Biden Administration and how it will boost US chip production. Plus, California proposes state incentives for EV buyers which would exclude Tesla models, and social media companies push back against new legislation in Australia that could limit teen usage.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

From Mahart where Innovation of Money and Power Collie in Silicon Valley NBN.

Speaker 2

This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.

Speaker 3

Live from New York.

Speaker 4

This is Blomberg Technology coming up. Intel's secures an eight billion dollar grant for its US chip factory expansion of the months of trying to convince Washington and Wall Street that it can execute on its vision.

Speaker 3

Plus California, it proposes.

Speaker 4

State in centers for EV buyers, which could exclude Tesla's models, and social media companies push back against new legislation in Australia that's going through the courts that could limit team usage.

Speaker 3

But first that's checking on these markets.

Speaker 4

Because we're currently hired to the tune of four tenths of a percent, we're managing to shrug off some of that anxiety once again being built in around geopolitics and remid tariffs that we're going to break it down for you a little bit later.

Speaker 3

But still big tech managing to lead us higher.

Speaker 4

And in fact, the S and P five hundred on track for yet another set of records, and the NASUC is up for four straight days.

Speaker 3

Move on and look at some of the individual movers.

Speaker 4

Because we have still got some drip feed around earnings that have come after the bell. I want to look at what's of course been happening in the world of Zoom and another key chip maker. Zoom down some seven point nine percent, didn't live up to expectations in terms of its growth for its fiscal third quarter, and I think most notably is because this stock has run up hard since it's bottoming out in August some sixty percent higher.

Speaker 3

Many alis saying like it went.

Speaker 4

It showed solid numbers, but not as good as a market been pricing in analog devices down a percentage point, had been rallying earlier in the trade after they showed some strength in terms of auto sales and chips, but now just taking a turn into the red.

Speaker 3

But let's stick with chips now.

Speaker 4

Because Intel securing seven point nine billion dollars in federal grants from the Biden administration. The deal is actually marking the largest ever direct subsidy from a program, and this is a course to boost US chip production, sources telling Bloomberg Intel will get the money for projects in Arizona, in Oregon, in New Mexico. Bloomberg's Mackenzie Hawkins joins US

now in Mackenzie, Ohio. Not on tap for this particular area of money because it's not far down the road enough in terms of well digging in and breaking ground.

Speaker 3

Where do we stand in terms of actually building.

Speaker 5

So Intel seven point nine billion dollar ward from the hips AP supports projects across four US states through between now and twenty thirty, by which time Intel plans to send ninety billion of a total one hundred billion CAPEX.

Speaker 2

On US projects.

Speaker 6

But projects have.

Speaker 5

To meet certain benchmarks and milestones to qualify for a funding dispersement, so it'll take a while for the money to actually go out the door and make it into Intel's hands. The first roughly one billion of that will happen this year because Intel has already made progress on projects in Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon, Ohio. Construction was supposed to finish by late twenty twenty six. Now one of the facilities won't be online until the next decade.

Speaker 4

Paq Helsinger has joined Bloomberg Technology and sort of vented some frustration at how slow it's been to get the money from the US government.

Speaker 3

And also you note.

Speaker 4

That this is a little bit less than previously estimated.

Speaker 5

So it's been a very long process for Intel and for all of the other companies. Intel's award was announced at a preliminary stage in March for eight point five billion dollars, and since then the company has.

Speaker 2

Been going through due diligence.

Speaker 5

There have been disagreements about how much information Intel has to disclose to the government, and also about terms specifying what happens if Intel stands off at manufacturing business.

Speaker 6

Or is acquired in part or in whole.

Speaker 5

That's obviously a pretty tense discussion with Intel when they're going through some serious financial problems, and there have been conversations with other players in industry about potential m and a. The haircut that Intel took on its award is actually not because of those business problems. It's because the company is separately getting three billion dollars to make chips for

the Pentagon. That program was originally supposed to be mostly funded by the Defense Department, but after a big funding stat involving various departments in the Biden administration and lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the Commerce Department had to use its own ship sacked money to support that program, and some of that came from the money already set aside for Intel.

Speaker 4

Breaking down the numbers and some of the M and A rumors. Mackenzie Hawkins really appreciate it, thank you. Look sticking with those M and A reports previously, Colcom's takeover interest in the company is actually cooling now, sources are telling Bloomberg the complexities associated with acquiring Intel have made it less attractive to Coalcom. A deal would likely have been one of the largest ever in technology. Meanwhile, more on chips and tech more broadly, as bringing in Nancy Curtain,

chief investment Officer and ULTI team and global Nazi. It's always so important to have your voice on the show talking about the global context here, just dig in on for example, M and A hopes around this new administration coming in twenty twenty five and deals getting done, chips being supported or not supported as a sector.

Speaker 3

What do you make of it?

Speaker 7

Well, let's start with M and A first, and we do think that M and A will increase. You know, you have pretty rigorous merger guidelines passed by President Biden in twenty twenty three. We reckon those will be undone under President elect Trump. And remember they had lowered the guidance threshold at a company being seen as anti competitive.

So we do think it's going to be a friendlier environment for regulation, a friendlier environment for M and A, and expect that animal spirits M and A and IPOs will pick up in twenty twenty five. So we think this is one of the positives coming from Trump. Just quickly on the Chips Act and Intel, are we back in their own horse there? I mean, this is supposed

to create jobs. They just laid off fifteen percent of the workforce, and I kind of look at and think in Video didn't get any money from the CHIPSAC and it's actually doing a pretty dark good job of actually supplying the chips industry. So I think this is a program. It's hard to change and remove these legislative programs. It's not a program the president Electron favors very much. I think he called it a really bad program.

Speaker 3

Yeah, so stay tuned on in Video.

Speaker 4

Though they basically get TSMC and other chip makers to produce this is all about on shoring and making sure that chips can be made in the United States.

Speaker 3

When you're looking at in Video, and.

Speaker 4

Indeed, it's exposure, whether it be selling into China or indeed depending on a supply chain that is in many ways related to Taiwan.

Speaker 3

How does that factor into an investment thesis.

Speaker 7

Well, as you know, Trump has said Tara's the most beautiful word in the English language. So you know, maybe Trump just used some tariffs here on TSMC because that would incur coourage them to think about And by the way, they were part of the Chips Act as well, so they did receive some subsidies there. But you know that might encourage them to accelerate production in the United States. Now,

how will in Vidia respond, I don't know. With seventy four percent gross margins and it seems like insane demand in Jensen Wayne's words, it seems like they're just going to raise prices. So you know, if we get some tariffs on TSMC, which I wouldn't be surprised, I just think in Video will end up passing that on to its demand hungry customers.

Speaker 4

It feels like you've got some nues about which horses you should back. But more broadly, the winners I likely to continue winning into the next administration is that we are articulating. Is it's still good to be longing tech here?

Speaker 7

I mean, let's just talk about a little bit of the winners and semiconductor. You know, at the end of the day, Nvidia is clearly in poll position monopoly position, I mean, more demand than supply. But competition is coming. Remember forty percent of their data center customers are also trying to compete with them. Amazon's coming pretty close here in developing a chip. Now I understand it's forty percent cheaper.

Not really sure the performance benchmarks with respect to training an inference, they haven't been published and it's not clear it's in production.

Speaker 3

Mode, so to speak. So let's see what happens.

Speaker 7

And of course, to a certain extent, AMD and Intel are fast trying to be competitors as well. So competition is on the way and we should expect to see more of that. You know, people are looking at the price of Nvidia chips, the fact that they can't get access and are trying to diversify their supply sources, and that makes sense, right, So we do expect competition to come as we look forward. Now, I don't say this is a Q one. I think Nvidia should have another

blockbuster quarter. Certainly they were pretty clear about it. They expect revenues to be up seventy percent in the next quarter, and they normally beat that number. So let's see where that comes out.

Speaker 4

Customers look at the price of the chips, Investors look at the price of the stock. With an Nvidia trading at forty six times future earnings, many have been perhaps taking a bit of profit. When you're looking at Tesla that's trading at one hundred and forty.

Speaker 3

One times future earnings.

Speaker 4

What do you make about the optimism beaked into that stock post election?

Speaker 1

WILLD Tesler is clearly a special child at the moment given the relationship between Eli Musk, you know, and Trump, and you know, in these stocks, these magnificent.

Speaker 7

Seven you know, on average there at about thirty five times forward earnings at the moment, and that means makes them very vulnerable to disappointment.

Speaker 8

Right.

Speaker 7

So one of the themes that we've had on this year is, you know, tech is fine. We believe in jen Ai, but you need to diversify beyond just those magnificent seven technology shares that have fueled the market's advanced and we think MidCap and particular trading at about thirteen fourteen times earnings up close to ten percent already this month is an excellent beneficiary OMAGA, potentially corporate tax rate cuts, manufacturer renaissance, and a better outlook for growth in the

United States. So there are other things you can do and diversify away from tech. By the way, where earnings are expected to decelerate in the so called Magnificent seven as we head into twenty twenty five, where they're supposed to accelerate in the rest of the market, and so I think that's a really way nice way to still learn a return, participate, but protect some of that valuation potential, downside risk and tech.

Speaker 4

Massacatain always great to catch up. Thank you, Chief Investment Officer for an ltteam and Global I. Meanwhile, let's just talk about globally. China's shaw Me preparing a self design mobile processor for its upcoming smartphones. This comes as an effort to actually reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers Qualcom Media Tech. According to sources, massuction of the chip is expected to begin in twenty twenty five. Coming up, well, deja vu, President elect Donald Trump rattling markets across the

world with more tariff threats. We discussed the potential impact on the tech sector next and we were just looking at Tesla with Nancy Nestwell on it a little bit more upper percentage point. We will recover from some of yesterday's sell off. Will going to dig in on what California is currently threatening, how they could be excluding them from any future support for EVS if indeed federal support is taken away.

Speaker 3

This is BlueBag technology.

Speaker 4

President's elect Donald Trump took to truth Social to vow additional tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, and the comment marks his first specific threat to the top trading partners of the United States since his election win just three weeks ago.

Speaker 3

Now, Bloomberg's Michael Shepherd joins us or for more.

Speaker 4

He promised it on campaign trail, and now he's once again reconfirming.

Speaker 9

He's taking a step closer. Caroline, this is what the president elect have been telling his voters all along, that he would try to bring manufacturing back to the US using tariffs as his primary weapon. Now he is threatening to use tariffs for something else, and this is to extract policy concessions from America's key trading partners. With Canada and Mexico. It's his concern about the border and with China.

He is really trying to get Beijing to cooperate more in his view to stem the flow of fentanyl in the US, which has been blamed for a surge in overdose deaths in recent years. So we're seeing tariffs being applied in a different since, not purely economically, but to actually get a policy goal out of a key US counterpart.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and some of those policy goals the ones we heard in the previous administration too. The market more broadly is sort of it in its stride, and I'm wondering whether people feel that they'll be carve outs, whether or not this will specifically hit certain industries.

Speaker 9

Mike, Well, there's so many unanswered questions around this, Caroline right now, because he really just kind of dropped it on truth Social less than twenty four hours ago and walked away, and his transition team has not answered any further questions about just as you say, will there be carveouts? Is this in addition to the Tarasi had already been threatening a sixty percent level against goods coming in from China?

And likewise, what does this mean for the USMCA agreement that he forged to replace NAFTA during his first term in office? In any case, this will have a major ripple effect on the economy and on supply chains. If enacted, it would affect autos, It would affect very significantly the

tech trade with China. We do a huge amount of business with Chinese companies, sending them legacy semiconduct, getting finished computers back, and all of that would be royal by this, and we would have to watch for these trading partners to assess, as Mexico warned it might do today, whether they would retaliate in kind.

Speaker 4

Michael Sheppard always such a thorough setup. We really appreciate taking us through what is at the moment just a statement on truth social but let's try and extrapolate it out. With Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Mike there was discussing how this will affect auto's immediately In the tech industry, we think evs. But Mary, what are the ramifications on the auto sector do you think?

Speaker 3

Yeah?

Speaker 6

It's great to be with you.

Speaker 10

Well, first of all, when we're talking trade with Canada and Mexico, the first job has to be the auto sector. It's the most important export other than fuel from Canada that comes.

Speaker 6

From our two USMCA partners.

Speaker 10

Production is fully integrated between the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Speaker 6

Cars go back and forth.

Speaker 10

By some accounts, certain vehicles can go back and forth across the border seven or more times before they're sent to an auto dealer. So this would be extremely disruptive. We would imagine that auto companies would be lining up to tell the new administration how harmful this would be not only to the two countries involved in this, Canada Mexico, but to the United States and to the plants that

are in the United States waiting for those parts. So undoubtedly it would lead to disruptions of US production and.

Speaker 4

Increase costs, as many would anticipate from a consumer perspective. What about the supply chain when it affects China and US technology companies?

Speaker 3

Here how intertwined?

Speaker 4

How dependent does the US remain on Chinese pots and goods?

Speaker 10

Yeah, since the First Trade War, US has depended less strongly on China. But we have to remember that many of the electronic devices that we know and love were not actually tax under the First Trade War. So final items like laptops, nip notebooks, smart watches, cell phones, none of those were actually hit with the first trade war, tariffs peripherals were things that we may use with these devices. So that's you know, he has already proposed or promised

a flat sixty on China. We don't know if this extra ten percent that he sent out last night is by a social media post, is on top of that or part of that. Either way, it's going to be extremely disruptive because our companies have not had time to move these vast supply chains out of China.

Speaker 3

Take Apple for a case study.

Speaker 4

They have been trying to depend more on India, for example, of the Southeast Asian countries, and we've seen him just in China over the weekend, trying to ensure the relationships remain strong with the government there. But also many understand that Tim Cook has a decent relationship with the incoming administration. Do you think CEOs are anticipating CoV outs? Do you think CEOs are able to manage this without passing it on to a consumer.

Speaker 10

I think they understand how disruptive this would be, and that if we know that there are constitutional limits on what the president can do, he's shown a pension for trying to blow past a lot of the limits that people have tried to place on him, but he can't revoke the law of economics, and there's economics limits to what he can do, or at least economic constraints. They're going to cause him a lot of trouble, not only

in individual sectors, but on the macro front. Inflation will kick up again, for example, something which voters have shown that they dislike intensely. So I think it would be wise that C suites are anticipating.

Speaker 6

That this will be either set up with carve outs.

Speaker 10

Or it will be rolled back in terms of the absolute tex amount.

Speaker 6

That he is going to levy.

Speaker 10

So I think we have a long way to go before this social media quote becomes new taxes on US trade?

Speaker 4

How effective in the first iteration were tariffs on changing the flow of goods out of China in the US, reducing perhaps dependence or indeed the overall trade excess or lack thereof.

Speaker 10

I think we saw the value of trade dropped by about thirty percent between well US and China. Remember, China also retaliated against the US. We would certainly expect to see some retaliation again, not just from China but also from our other partners. So it had a significant effect on trade flows.

Speaker 6

That said, a lot of that trade was diverted to countries.

Speaker 10

There's very little evidence that any of that activity came back to the United States. Some of it flowed to Vietnam, some of it flowed to other parts of East and Southeast Asia, and of course some of it went into Mexico, which is why we've seen our trade, particularly in electronics and electrical devices increase with Mexico.

Speaker 4

Very lovely and the vets and Institute breaking it all down. Thank you, Meta TikTok Google. They're taking aim in Australia's legislation to ban children under sixteen from accessing such social media platforms. The government in Australia is pushing to pass the bill through parliament this week.

Speaker 3

Under the proposed bill, the.

Speaker 4

Social Media Chance would be responsible for policing that ban under threats of fines of up to thirty two point five million dollars. Let's bring in bring those, Kurt Wagner and look, thirty two and a half million dollars is but a drop in the ocean for any of these companies.

Speaker 3

But what is to fear here for them?

Speaker 8

Yeah?

Speaker 11

I think the bigger concern here is that this serves as some kind of a blueprint or template that other countries are going to adopt. Right, I mean, the last thing these companies want, these services want is for teenagers young people to not be able to use their services because that's how they get that next.

Speaker 6

Generation and users.

Speaker 11

And so if this ends up working in Australia, or it ends up getting passed and sort of effectively ending that connection, there would be real concern that other countries, especially those in Europe where regulation around these big tech companies has been much tighter, that other countries would try to maybe follow in their footsteps.

Speaker 4

It's interesting that we've had a spate of activity around protecting young people, whether it's in gaming with roadblocks, but also Instagram for example, they have their teen accounts rolled out. What is it then when instagram parent company Metro is coming out and saying that this is going to be really hard to enforce. We had a statement from Meta saying that the approach will require each app provider to

collect personal identification or biometric data from all Australians. Are they trying to make out that this is you know, this is an issue of free speech and identity here?

Speaker 11

Yeah, I mean this is kind of an old playbook from them, right, which is to really push back and say, hey, this is impossible technologically, we can't do this, right and Meta is not the only company to say those kinds of things. At the same time, those team accounts you mentioned, Caroline are exactly the type of thing that you would think they could roll out in Australia, right, which is

they automatically put teens into two more strict settings. They require you know, ID or some other type of verification before those teens can age up into an account for eighteen plus. And so while I do agree that it probably is a very tough technical challenge, I don't think it's necessarily impossible, and I think it's in Meta's best interests and all these companies' best interest to get across the fact that this is a tough chain Andre that's their argument is that hey, we can't do this.

Speaker 4

All eyes on how it goes through the Parliament this week. Wagner being asked to work hard up until holidays.

Speaker 3

We thank you.

Speaker 4

Welcome back to lum Meg Technology. I'm Caroline Hide in New York. A quick check in on these markets and more specifically crypto, because look, the ecosystem added about a trillion dollars. Since the election of Donald Trump for the administration in twenty twenty five, we had seen a bit of a pullback from close to one hundred thousand dollars. We've called down slightly maybe sort of about a four day sell off. Eight percent wiped off. We're now recovering

a little bit up sixt tens percent. Ninety four two undred and sixty three is where we trade as people lock in profits, maybe question some of the geopolitical risks

once again, and some risk aversion. But more broadly, let's talk about politics post the election of Trump, and in particular California Governor Gavin Newsom proposing a state incentive for EV buyers if federal support is taken away, but it would exclude Tesla's models from a market share limitation perspective that this move is aiming to create market editions for more car makers to enter the EV market, but confurther escalate tensions between these two characters, Elon Musk and Gavin Newsom.

Let's talk about it all webnomgs Ilia, Yahoo, Keemische who joins us for more? And look, this is Gavin Newsom trying to front run any change from the new administration. If they take away that seven and a half thousand dollars tax credit for EV purchases, California will be there to step in and support.

Speaker 3

But why limit Tesla's.

Speaker 12

Yeah, that's exactly right. This is part of Newsom coming out from and saying Trump does take this away, we're going to Californians are still going to be eligible for electric vehicle tax credits. But the proposal that he gave yesterday says that there's a market share limitation which would prevent Tesla from qualifying from these credit. It's their reasoning for that is that they want to spur competition of smaller electric vehicle manufacturers in the state, and they said

they want them to take root in the state. So essentially they're saying, you know, Tesla already has a huge market share in the state, and they want some of the smaller guys to be able to compete. A lot of these other electric vehicle manufacturers are losing money, some of the traditional OEM manufacturers are losing money when they sell an electric vehicle, so this is kind of an incentive for those smaller guys, while Tesla is making money every time they sell a car.

Speaker 4

I can imagine that Ilia who that this is going to be seen as therefore punishment for success, for punishment for being profitable. Already, I mean, what do we anticipate in terms of the reaction coming from Elon Musk because he's not been afraid to have pretty tough words for Gavin Newsom in the past.

Speaker 12

Yeah, I mean Elon Musk has already come out swinging and he called this proposal insane, and he cited that Tesla is the only car manufacturer that is actually producing cars in California, and they have a lot of employees based in California, even though they did move their headquarters to Texas. So I think it really does raise the tensions between these two characters. California is becoming this oil to the Trump administration, and Elon Musk has taken a

newfound prominence in Republican politics. So you're seeing kind of Elon Musk and Newsome becoming these emerging characters that are representing kind of the new state of politics in the country right.

Speaker 4

Now, California and some massive economy. Elijah who commissa thank you for breaking it down. Let's just keep this discussion going with Jessica Caldwell, head of Insights at Edmonds, and your focus that you can bring us is the underlying data of EV sales, the actual success story that Tesla has compared to other competitors. Jessica, what will this mean for competition? Could it spur competition?

Speaker 2

I mean it's definitely going to spur competition.

Speaker 13

I mean, if you're out there at your shopping for a vehicle one adiligible for seventy five hundred dollars rebate, when is not I mean you're going to shop both vehicles. Of course, everyone knows what Tesla is. They have a lot of brand recognition, but something like this is going to get shoppers to look and consider other things, and a lot of times that does ultimately end in a purchase. So, without a doubt, Tesla will be at a disadvantage if this goes through.

Speaker 4

Jessica, just set the context here though, seven and a half thousand, what does that mean for the ultimate price point of an easy right now? Because well, they're not cheap and seven and a half thousand doesn't seem that much in comparison.

Speaker 3

To the cost of a Rivian for example.

Speaker 13

Yeah, I mean that is true, but I think as we go towards the mass market consumer, they're looking for cheaper evs, and in that case, seventy five hundred dollars does become probably more attractive because someone that's buying one hundred thousand dollars EV they're probably not bothered by these

rebeates anyhow. And at the end of the day, people are buying a lot of times even though they shouldn't be on monthly payment, and so when it's calculated out, you're looking at the monthly payment, the seventy five hundred dollars apply, especially for lease customers.

Speaker 2

That can make a really.

Speaker 13

Big difference and make that a lot more attractive and get consumers to buy.

Speaker 4

California, though I'm assuming has been a first adopt early adopter of evs. More broadly, when you compare state to state, so who is how much of the mass market is still left to penetrate in California?

Speaker 13

Well, I think that's the whole thing, is that in California the EV market share over twenty percent, So you have a lot of masks or a lot of early adopters have already purchased. So getting the mass market is probably the bigger challenge here because these people need convincing. They probably don't have highs income. They're kind of questioning whether they even want an EV So now.

Speaker 2

It's a time. If there was ever a time.

Speaker 13

To have an incentive on EV's, it is for the mass market, not for the people that were early adopters that were excited about EV's to start with and probably didn't need much incentive to even purchase.

Speaker 3

Just compare States to state.

Speaker 4

We know that Newsom has not been afraid to push back at a LA musk and indeed perhaps be a key supporter of the EC sector. Wouldn't this be replicated elsewhere? Do you think if federal support did come away?

Speaker 2

I mean, it's likely we have things like CARB states.

Speaker 13

Other people are following some of the California a Resource Board, some of the edicts that they have put out, So there is a president here of other states kind of following California's lead.

Speaker 2

But at the end of the day, this program does sound quite costly, especially if you're to sell a lot of vehicles.

Speaker 13

So state's going to have to find funding for this program, which may be complicated. I mean, California has a clear order zero missions vehicle by twenty thirty five.

Speaker 2

And you know, if that's the case, then programs like.

Speaker 13

This will have to exist to spur that mass market to start to buy.

Speaker 3

They really want to spur the mass market.

Speaker 4

You'd anticipate that you let Chinese EV's in, which are much cheaper than US competitors. Who therefore, given that that won't be the case, where are the cheaper vehicles, who will this end up supporting?

Speaker 6

Well, I mean, I.

Speaker 2

Think any automakers. I mean they're all kind of scrambling.

Speaker 13

I mean, in this era of affordability, it costs all living increase of inflation, people just feeling a lot less wealthy than they have in.

Speaker 2

The past has been a big issue for car buyers.

Speaker 13

So I think a lot of automakers are trying to focus on the lower end. To anyone that is delivering good value that kind of has maybe like you know, a forty thousand dollars price tag, they're probably going to get a lot more eyeballs than some of these other things that we have seen, you know, like the Jaguar coming out in a few years or any of these you know, six figure EV type of vehicles.

Speaker 4

All eyes on the neis sounds of this world, Jessica Cool well, we thank you. Kind of insights over at Edmund's. I meanwhile coming up Klana getting ready for that IPO.

Speaker 3

We'll discuss with.

Speaker 4

Headlines Cameron and Sorry, and what it means for other fintech companies that may also be mone and going public.

Speaker 3

This is what we make Technology.

Speaker 4

A group of former Google and Stripe executives who helped build the Android platform and raising fifty six million dollars for a new company. This one focused on developing an operating system for AI agents. Showing KAfari joins us now showing every other moment I seem to reading about the latest AI agent company, and this one's actually to foster an operating system for its adoption.

Speaker 3

That's right.

Speaker 14

So the idea is they're not actually building the agents themselves, but because they believe that the future of computing will not be necessarily about apps, that the next evolution of these AI agents, that they want to build something that will connect all these agents to be able to talk to each other and for developers to all build on one platform, kind of like how we have Android for OS.

Speaker 4

It's called well, I don't know how it would say it slash dev, slash agents or just dev agents as they're coming out of stealth.

Speaker 3

This is the new name.

Speaker 4

They've got some really interesting characters on their cap table now, so Alexander Wang of SCALEAI. They've also got Nikesh Aurora, who we've been speaking to on the show recently of Palo Alto Networks. But who are the vcs behind this and how do they find them?

Speaker 14

That's right, so Index is leading the round and Alphabet's independent growth arm Capital G is co leading it.

Speaker 3

And what's interesting is that you know, these.

Speaker 14

Guys have been known for a long time in Silicon Valley helping build the Android platform, and the CEO is also a former Stripe executive. You a CTO there, so you know these people. These investors have known these these leaders for a while. And actually the lead partner at Index knew the founder back at Google. They both worked together briefly at Google. So yeah, it's a really interesting, I think case study of where you see this sort

of founder market fit. The lead investor told me right where people have a lot of confidence in this group to be able to execute on this kind of ambitious plan to build a new network that can connect this future wave of technology we're seeing with AI agents.

Speaker 4

David Singleton, who is over Stripe as CTO quoting it we need an Android like moment for Ai Shoreen KAfari, thank you so much for bring us the latest funding round. Meanwhile, let's dig into funding rounds to future IPOs and exits. Karana, for example, another key fintech that we're all getting on

our mind for its IPO. We understand it almost broke even in the first nine months of the year, companies stating that as at eyes the markets in today's VC Spotlight, let's dig in with Cameron and Sary his partner at Headline, who understands by now pay later deeply and I'm.

Speaker 3

Interested in Kharana.

Speaker 4

How important, how integral to the market opening?

Speaker 3

Will it's IPO be?

Speaker 15

Well, it's going to be huge because we really haven't had a major tech IPO in months. We had read it and I bought it came out back in the spring, but it's been quite since then. I think been waiting for the election outcome and also to see what's happening with interest rates. But now that we're past that, I think Clara is going to be the first real test of the market.

Speaker 4

And in terms of valuation, like they've been on a volatile ride.

Speaker 3

Ro's so too a stripe.

Speaker 4

Look, both of these companies will call up and the twenty twenty one year Fouria or around fintech I both had a sharp realization of what valuations really are. Klan has been bringing its way back as that's strong.

Speaker 8

Absolutely. Look, I think Clarna did a very smart thing.

Speaker 15

They got over what I call valuation nostalgia, where you feel like I was worth X before I should be worth X now it's not true.

Speaker 8

Right, the markets adjusted.

Speaker 15

Everyone's kind of worth a different price than they were in twenty twenty in a zero interest rate environment. So Clarnet was valued at forty six billion and they came down and did around the next year at seven billion. That's a tough pill to swallow, but they did it. They did the reset. It was a sober, great decision. And now they've built their way back up, and this IPO, by all indicasions, will price probably somewhere in fifteen twenty billion dollars sort of range, maybe a little higher.

Speaker 8

Their main comp affirm in the US.

Speaker 15

The stock US up like five hundred percent in the last couple of years, So I think they're coming out at a great time and they're going to get the you know, hopefully approach back.

Speaker 8

To where they were. But they did that reset and that was very smart them.

Speaker 4

What's interesting is that the secondary market has been so active and so many companies have a decent chunk of change they don't.

Speaker 3

Need to exit.

Speaker 4

So, for example, Stripe has been buying back its own stock from previous employees. They so little need to go and tap the markets. Why then should a Klan or a Stripe eventually come an IPO.

Speaker 15

Look and ipl Really, there's three things. It's a marketing event. It's an opportunity to come out and say here's what we do, here's what we are. You know, my parents may have not heard of Clara before, but now they will. You know, Klarana is telling a big AI story that I call themselves the AI powered Global Payments Network.

Speaker 8

So that's the first thing. The second is it is liquidity, right.

Speaker 15

Dot's provide liquidity in a deeper way than any private funding round can.

Speaker 8

To employees to investors.

Speaker 15

And the third thing that's really important is it sets a really clear public equity price for your stock, so you can use that to then compensate employees to hire and to do m and A to buy companies because before that it's always this parlor game of well, what's the stock really worth? We don't really know, and now you'll know every second of every day how much it's worth.

Speaker 4

What are you thinking about MNA, because I believe that you backed sort of a Klana similar so got bought by a bigger tech company.

Speaker 3

Aren't we going to see more I'm and A in the space.

Speaker 8

I really think so.

Speaker 15

I beck to company called Bread Finances, which is bought by aline Stata Systems.

Speaker 8

The whole companies now called Bread.

Speaker 15

It's a very similar company to our firmand Clarna, And in fact, you know, in the fintech space and tech.

Speaker 8

Overall, we've seen very little M and A.

Speaker 15

Part of it's been the regime and the regulatory process where people are afraid that deals will get blocked. I think by all indications, in twenty twenty five, with the new Trump era, we'll see a more friendly environment for M and A and I think folks are kind of leaning into that now. And you saw some rumored stuff. There was like a Qualcom deal that was going to happen. We've heard about HubSpot, Google, Whiz Google. Those didn't turn out to actually happen. But I think in the new

year you will see M and A pickup as well. Absolutely, How do.

Speaker 4

You prep your own portfolio companies then for that new era of twenty twenty five, I.

Speaker 15

Think, you know, the thing has always been, you know, cash is oxygen and auxygen is life, So you have to have enough cash on hand to make it through whatever period of time. And these last couple of years have been tricking in that regard. So companies have been raising you know, debt rounds, bank equity, you know, loans from banks, convertible notes, things like that to bridge and get through to a period where hopefully there's going to be more liquidity and better environment for exits.

Speaker 4

What about you and your thoughts on building up holdings in companies via the secondary market or going direct to when they're doing fresh sales.

Speaker 3

What's the environment been like? How how pure is it.

Speaker 4

At the moment or is it kind of it's who you know in the back door and therefore you.

Speaker 15

Will access It used to be that way, you know, ten tho ten years ago, secondaries was always kind of whispered and so forth. And there's famously a massive secondary market for Facebook soccer.

Speaker 8

You know before it was public.

Speaker 15

For many years, but a lot of companies put limits on secondary sales and you can only sell a certain portion, or some companies don't allow sales at all. They have rights of first refusal to stop sales or purchases stocks themselves.

Speaker 8

But now you have all these.

Speaker 15

Other markets like Forge and Hive, and while Carter was trying to do this where you have a kind of more liquid quote unquote secondary market where you can see the most up to date pricing, but it's still very episodic, where you know, some deal happens and then maybe six months goes by, so you're not really sure exactly how what the pricing is of these shares in any given moment in.

Speaker 4

Time, and how difficult is it to understand some of the nuances in the deals. The contracts are very individual, and some of these very hot companies are able to have pretty tough rules on how you speak about.

Speaker 3

Them and how you invest in rivals. What's that looking like?

Speaker 15

Well, you know, the biggest thing is information right, and information rights are very limited for investors who come into say a secondary in a company like a Klarna or whatever before their public you don't get all the rights you don't get all the financials, you don't get all the documents. You're just told, okay, look this is the information you get. There's the price of the stock and that's Sydney. You have to kind of live with that.

Once a company is public, then obviously you get all the full information and it's a level playing field for everybody and it's a much adding more rich environment.

Speaker 8

For folks people to invest with full info.

Speaker 4

We'll see how that full info comes to beir next day at camera And I'm sorry, it's so great to have you partner at headline Eon.

Speaker 3

It's a cloud backup startup and in fact it was founded in just.

Speaker 4

January of this year by a group of Amazon Web Services alumni and it's just closed a new funding round, value in the company at one point four billion dollars. That's less than a year after founding. So I'm going to talk about it with a fair like he's the CEO joining us. Now, you've done three funding rounds in one year of your first existence. How are we doing this and talk to us about what problem you're solving.

Speaker 16

Well, it actually four rounds of funding. A first round was led by Secoya, second round a light Speed, then Green Oaks and lastly Bond And what we're doing we're making cloud backup useful because now they're not. And to think why should we care about cloud backups? Mean, my grandmother have backup on her iPhone for all of her kids over only grab kids, So it's not that easy in the cloud. You see on premise everyone have everything. And in the cloud companies just moved in the last

few years. They're spending hundreds of billions of dollars annually on the cloud, out of which twenty percent is cloud spent, is backup spent. And this is a huge spent and today it doesn't work. It's very cumbersome, it's a mess, and it's not useful. You can't even use it when you need it. So it's a very big problem and we're happy to solve that.

Speaker 3

I mean aws Or it is a problem. And they bought your.

Speaker 4

Previous company, cloud Endure.

Speaker 3

So how long have you been fixing this problem?

Speaker 4

How are the ways that the technology is changing to ensure that it is less cumbersome going forward?

Speaker 16

So we've seen it. We had a front row seat when we're in a previous company in cloud on Door and then after being acquired by AWS. In AWS, we built the disaster recovery service for enterprises, so we had a front row seat seeing very large companies either moving to the cloud and starting using that for resilience, and apparently they encountered many problems related to how you manage your data, how you govern that, and then how you make sure that it's it's safe and that you can access.

Speaker 8

It when you need it.

Speaker 16

So we've seen it for the last I'm doing it for the last eleven years and my partner's doing it for even more time than that. And when we left AWS, it was very vivid that the time is now because when enterperse move to the cloud, they form these new organizations cloud cloud infrastructure, cloud operations. These are organizations responsible for all cloud resilience across the organization, twenty percent of cloud spend, which is tens of billions of dollars annually.

But simply it doesn't work. The same technology and the same architecture which worked on premise, it simply doesn't work in the cloud. It's like trying to take a square peg and fit it into a round hole. And we are here to fix it in two ways. One, we want to make sure we are able to manage all the data for the entire organization, help classify everything, understand what's important to back up, what's not to witch retention policy, and then we're making it very easy to actually access

it when you need it. For example, compliance audits, both internal and external compliance audits.

Speaker 8

Let's say that you're.

Speaker 16

An insurance company and you want to access your data from three years back. Who knows if you have backup? And if you do, how long will it take you to get the data today? It could take days or even weeks. Companies are missing compliance audits really bad.

Speaker 3

So you're the fix for the It sounds like you've built the offering.

Speaker 4

So when you're going through your fourth round of funding, why do you need the funds?

Speaker 3

What is it you're going to be spending it on.

Speaker 16

So we found out that as this category category emerges and there are very big problems that customers are having, we want to make sure that we have everything we need in order to support it and solve that quickly, and in the enterprise level, because the budget that huge, The pain is enormous, and frankly, today what's going on is a mess, and we need enough funding to make sure that We're building a comprehensive solution fit for the enterprise, so that we are well positioned to solve that for

every company, big or small.

Speaker 3

Engineers marketing sales.

Speaker 4

I'm sure you'll be bringing on a fair few e on CEO, A fair Alex. Thank you for your time over in Israel today. Meanwhile, that does it the sedition of Bloomberg Technology.

Speaker 3

Don't forget to check out the podcast.

Speaker 4

You'll find it on the terminal as well as online on Apple and Spotify.

Speaker 3

On iHeart from New

Speaker 4

York, this is Bloomberg Technology.

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