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Apple's AI-Focused Chips, ARK's Stake in OpenAI

Apr 12, 202442 min
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Episode description

Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow and Caroline Hyde break down Apple's decision to overhaul its entire Mac line with AI-Focused M4 Chips, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest to buy a stake into OpenAI, and reports that China has told telecom carriers to drop foreign semiconductor chips. 

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Transcript

Speaker 1

From Mahard where Innovations, Money and Power Collie in Silicon Vallet NBN.

Speaker 2

This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.

Speaker 3

I'm Caroline Hyde at Bloomberg's world headquarters in New York and I met Ludlow in San Francisco.

Speaker 4

This is Bloomberg Technology coming up.

Speaker 3

Semiconductors slide. That's on reports that China has told telecom carries to drop foreign chips. They'll bring you the details.

Speaker 5

Plus Apple plans to overhaul its entire line of Mac computers to add an AI focused in house processor or break down our exclusive Bloomberg reporting.

Speaker 3

And Kathy Wood buys into chatchybt Boom with a stake in Open AI. We'll discuss that and so much more throughout the hour, but first let's get over to these public trading markets. From a macro context, this is one we're seeing a search for safety today. There is warriors regarding Iran Israel. We're seeing geopolitical risks heightened, and maybe just as squaring away of certain volatility that we've seen throughout the week when it comes to concerns about CPIPPI.

As we move towards the weekend, we're currently seeing, for once, equity is actually moving at the opposite way of a bomb market. Even though the bond market has been selling off and equities is still managed to ride higher. Today it's the opposite. Were actually seeing bond markets move higher. We're seeing money move into the havens that are the

tenure yield. We're off by also eight nine basis points, so we're seeing money move there, money move into the Bloomberg Dollar Index, in fact, the highest level that since we've seen twenty twenty four. Head are up another seven tenths of a percent, but money coming out of equities as we worry about geopolitical tensions. We're off by one point four percent on the NASDAK and of course that key chip story that we're will be digging into in

a moment. Move on, have a little look what's happening in another key risk asset, and actually surprisingly flat for bitcoin over all over the course of a week now. The volatility has been there to see on a day to day basis, and we rode higher at the start where we've just come off with some of those highs. Of course, a dollar strength is going to mean a bit of a bitcoin weakness, But what are you watching.

Speaker 5

We have a lot of technology stories to bring you this Friday. Apple is an interesting one, up seven ten to one percent after a four percent jump Thursday, which I think was the biggest jump since May of last year.

Speaker 4

Bloombos Mark German.

Speaker 5

Is reporting a complete overhaul of the Mac line, and we'll talk to Mark a little bit later in the program. Alphabet Paarent of Google down a percentage twenty is giving us a little bit back after hitting the two trillion dollar market cap mark Thursday. Recently, a lot more optimism that Google's starting to get it right on AI. They'll actually have products, particularly in the enterprise or commercial use case.

But pulling back a little bit this Friday after a key milestone, we're keeping our.

Speaker 4

Eyes on the banks.

Speaker 5

Bank earnings kind of kick us off for earnings. Overall, you can see us kind of mixed fortunes, all of these three names moving to the downside going into it for us, so Blomow Technology AI. What's happening with aim banks was a big theme, but they all have their own individual stories.

Speaker 4

I'm not going to tell you the story.

Speaker 5

Bloomberg Shnali Bassak the correct person to bring us the banks, Rap joins us on set in New York and she brings you this story Snali, three big names, both moving lower, all moving lower.

Speaker 6

Yeah, all moving lower. And remember that is a little bit of a reversal. City Group had beat profit estimates here and we did see an earlier gain. Remember the market is lower on the day, but some of the declines they're seeing are quite stark. JP Morgan, for example, Intra Day is having its worst day since March of twenty twenty three, when we know times are very different.

Speaker 3

Remember ed we have JP.

Speaker 6

Morgan coming off six consecutive years of record revenue. So the big question is when analysts had expected them to raise the bar on that interest income, are they just being conservative when they have not done so, or are we seeing a consumer that is starting to, if not tap out, start to slow down a little bit in the way that they are starting to borrow and spend on those credit card businesses in particular. Now, some positive news for anyone watching Woomberg Technology in particular is you

do see an uptick here in those underwriting businesses. IPOs are back baby, and you are seeing it in the number of big banks, and certainly you don't see the advisory fees jumping back just as strong yet, but they're pretty optimistic over there at JP Morgan what things are starting to look like in investment banking.

Speaker 3

And you didn't even mention Ai Shanana Bassec. We thank you so much for bring us the latest on and earnings context, and of course we brace ourselves for the technology earnings to start coming thick and fast at the end of next week. But for now we're focused in on basically all of the chip set to under propressure. We shine a light on Intel off by three point four percent, AMD, one of your worst performers, off by

almost four percent. But in fact, every single member of the Semiconductor Index of Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is in the red on Semi off by more than four percent. But really this is as we see the reporting coming from the Wall Street Journal at the moment ed Beijing ordering Telecoon carriage, China Mobile and the likes to say no to foreign chips in their core networks by twenty twenty seven. This is really notable, but perhaps.

Speaker 5

Unsupp Yeah, it is another development in China's effort to

onshore their own semiconductor industry. Right, so the journal one key part of their report is that actually the Ministry for Industry and Information Technology has given a timeline, call it a timeline or a deadline for not just China Mobile, but China Unicorn and China Telecom Corp. To swap out foreign chips, those being US chipmakers AMD Intel get twenty five percent revenue historically from China on the more commercial use case for chips and put in a domestic one.

The question really is is there a domestic supply chain ready to support that.

Speaker 3

By twenty twenty seven They often might well hope so. And it's interesting and that almost front running. This was a great piece out of Bloomberg Intelligence to showing that Chinese export curbs are actually more of a risk the US export curbs at the moment. This is a tip for tat that you and I have been reporting on since we start first got together back in twenty twenty two of this technology show and really thinking about how US trying to restrain some of its own technology going

into China. Well, unsurprisingly China is going to be doing the same in reverse, but this time actually BI saying China's export restrictions is going to be key policy risk to some of the US chip manufacturers that have in recent years built up their overall supply chain dependency on China. So I think that's a really another interesting shoot drop at the moment, whether it's export restrictions, whether it's at the moment import restrictions coming from China of US tech, I.

Speaker 5

Think we should just get to someone who's got skin in the game joining us now is Alison Porter, portfolio manager on the Global Technology Leaders and Sustainable Future Technology Funds at Janis Henderson, and I think I'm right in saying if we just pick out AMD as an example, it's one name.

Speaker 4

That you have exposure to, it that you hold.

Speaker 5

You know, the journal is reporting one specific industry case of a much broader thing where China wants its domestic entities to use domestic chips.

Speaker 4

Your response to.

Speaker 1

That, well, you know, I would put a little bit of this into context. China top down are doing foreign

chips and tailcos. We don't see it as being, you know, a huge change because essentially that's a market that has been dominated by WAWI and the use of those and the use of in house chips has been around for a number of years now since chip companies were banned from supporting Bowies five G rollout and really in terms of China tail Co five D spend that actually peaked some time ago, and other areas like f PGAs you know, they've had a significant inventry correction.

Speaker 7

And for you know China who may want to replace US chips, but.

Speaker 1

Again you know actually using seven nanometer chips domestically, they don't have that supply yet.

Speaker 7

So I think for them to get to five and meter athena animeter, you're.

Speaker 1

Going to need You're going to need those for sixty deployment, which will ultimately need US chips by that time period. So you know, we think this is ongoing and wrangling, but in terms of the end markets, it's not hugely significant for the areas that we're focused on.

Speaker 3

Let's go to where you're focused there for Allison, because all of this comes in a current context of a threat over supply. We are all envisioning a whole new world on which we're going to be living in thanks to generative artificial intelligence. But we need the chips, need the supply chain, we need to be building these things, We need the energy. Alison, what chip names are going to be doing well in spite of geopolitical headwinds.

Speaker 1

Well, you know, when I started looking at technology stocks back in nineteen eighty six, I think about over a third of chip supply and was actually built in the US over thirty percent, and way forward to the pandemic.

Speaker 7

And that was down to twelve percent.

Speaker 1

So we see this ongoing focus of deglobalization. That's part of national security, it's part of national interest for AI.

Speaker 7

It's also part of the overall focus.

Speaker 1

On improving supply chain standards ESDUY standards throughout the technology resupply chain.

Speaker 7

And therefore we.

Speaker 1

Think that actually manufacturing is becoming a more competitive advantage more difficult to replicate. Many contract manufacturers, for example Jabel, Flixtronic the ability to be able to manufacture at scale. These companies have much lower margins and traditionally that could be easily moved around from competitors, but that's now becoming much more difficult at scale for many of the large OEMs to actually move their manufacturing capacity stay around.

Speaker 7

So we think that's one way that we see deglobalization.

Speaker 1

The chips AC actually play into year companies manufacture.

Speaker 3

As a global technology leaders and sustainable future tech fund Then do you worry that you're going to have to be sacrificing margin on some of the companies that you are investing in globally because they're having to you know, manufacture in more expensive places to secure supply chain or can you play start to play out well opportunities more globally that are being overlooked as we've all just focused in on a so called Magnificent seven.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, I think there's you know, a significant focus on margins and efficiency. You know, the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference in March showed that where you know, the two most name terms from all of the presentations at that conference, it weren't AI, it wasn't chipsacked, it was in fact, margins and efficiency. And you see, you know, I think that's one of the really interesting aspects of where we are just now because we have a major

new technology weave. But that's also hesting at a time when you know, we have this rising cost of capital and companies are really focused on efficiencies and improving margins, and that creates really interesting opportunities for investors.

Speaker 7

And it's a real stockpickers market, so it's.

Speaker 1

Not easy to generalize on sub sectors. It's very much about you know, active management, which is quite typical when we hit these technology inflection points.

Speaker 5

In this stock pickers market. Should you pick Apple? Apple is becoming increasingly attractive, it seems to you, guys, twelve month forward pay of twenty five times it had been downtrodden. Now is it a good name?

Speaker 1

We own Apple within our portfolio, but it's not been one of our largest holdings for quite some time.

Speaker 7

Apple's a tremendous company.

Speaker 1

It led technology in each of the last three ways, you know, through the PC wave, the mobile Internet. They were all really started by catalysts from product catalysts from Apple.

Speaker 7

Let's AI.

Speaker 1

We've was started by the product catalysts of Microsoft Chat, GPT and Open AI, and also in Vidia on Silicon and Apple's role and AI has yet to be defined, and we're sure that over the longer term they will continue to innovate, but right now they're not one of the early drivers of their genera to the IWAVE as.

Speaker 3

A sumporter, just a joy to have you on. Thank you Janis Henderson talking us through the winners and the losers you're looking at in the moment. And look, we were just finishing there on Apple and its focus or like thereof on AI. Let's just talk about Apple overhauling therefore its entire magline with in house processes that, guess what, focus on artificial intelligence. We're going to bring you the

details next. This is BLUEBG Technology. It's looking to boost some lagging computer sales with an overhaul of its entire Mac line, planning to unveil an AI focused M four processor. Apple is aiming to release the updated computers beginning actually late this year extending into early next year. Joining us now with this scoop of course, Roomberg's Mark German and Mark, this is a very quick upgrade. Basically the cycle is so short.

Speaker 8

Yeah, good morning, thank you for having me.

Speaker 9

I mean, Apple Silicon started off on about a one point five year, one and a half year upgrade cycle, and they've accelerated that. The M three chips came a little sooner than anticipated in October of twenty twenty three.

Speaker 8

So just about six months ago. Now the M four.

Speaker 9

Chips are going to be coming even sooner than that, coming about one year after the M three processors. So they're planning new Imax Macminie's low and macropros high end nec pros. Like you said, for release between the end of twenty four and early twenty five. So this is an accelerated timeline. And it's interesting because this is now matching the timeline of processor upgrades that you see on the iPhone and that you once saw on the iPad but no longer.

Speaker 8

And this is pretty significant.

Speaker 9

In house silicon is becoming an even more important part of the company's story. There are other companies that are so hyper focused on the cloud and such.

Speaker 8

Apple is still focused on in device chips.

Speaker 4

I think that's where we should focus mark.

Speaker 5

Our last guest, Alison Porter at Janis, is an Apple shareholder, and what she just told us is that to her mind, Apple's role in AI has yet to be defined. But I look at where the stock closed Thursday after you published your report, and again the momentum today, and I think the market sees an AI story. What are you hearing internally at Apple about this side of it?

Speaker 9

The AI story at Apple exists, and it's almost the complete opposite of what you're seeing from other companies.

Speaker 8

There's so much hype.

Speaker 9

Around in Nvidia because of their cloud infrastructure that powers artificial intelligence.

Speaker 8

There's Chat, g ABT and Gemini. Those are all cloud products.

Speaker 9

Apple's LM is an on device approach, meaning it runs entirely on the device, which makes it more privacy centric, but also in some cases it can perform actions far quickly there is no lag time because it's on the devices themselves. And these new AI chips are the upgraded AI components that you're seeing on the M four during later this year, as well as the aaighteen pro chip that you'll see in the iPhone sixteen Pro and Promax

Leader this year. Upgraded neural engines, improved processing, improved microphones to really optimize artificial intelligence and serri on a device. Now, we should note that Apple has been shipping neural engines those AI blocks inside of their chips for several years now, but this is going to be dubbed the biggest upgrade to the neural engine since that component was first released several years ago.

Speaker 5

Blue bos Mark German brilliant, thank you. Coming up on the show Docu sign unveiling a new platform and an expansion of his company's rategy. We're going to discuss that with the CEO, Alan Tigerson. That's next. This is Bloomberg, this is Talking Tech and in the news Tokyo based startup Sakana AI is capitalizing on surging interest from Japanese firms.

Speaker 4

Founded by ex Google researchers.

Speaker 5

Sicana won government supercomputer grants and partnerships with blue chip companies. This isn't an effort to build out Japan's AI ecosystem. Sakana uses small data sets to train low cost GENAI models that could be used to ramp up a company's AI capabilities.

Speaker 4

Plus, Samsung is.

Speaker 5

Set to unveil a forty four billion dollar push into US chip making as soon as next week. According to sources, they're going to outline a project in Taylor, Texas, after securing more than six billion.

Speaker 4

From government grants.

Speaker 5

The award marks the latest push from the Biden administration to revitalize chip making in the United States, and the House is set to try again on advancing the reauthorization of a US spy bill. The Foreign Intelligent Surveillance Act, failed to reach the floor on Wednesday over GOP concerns of privacy and section seven zero two that provision allows the surveillance of foreign targets and the potential to warrant leslie survey americans in contact with them.

Speaker 4

The bill underwent a revision.

Speaker 5

To a two year period from five in an attempt to swing its Republican critics.

Speaker 3

Caroline, let's move away from politics to product announcements. Now dog you sign holdings and it's just annual Momentum Music conference this week, and it set us up with some new products that include an intelligent agreement management platform. I'll stick into exactly what that is, Doc sign CEO Alan Tinkerson, and please to welcome you, thanks for joining category. It's different from what people already experience.

Speaker 2

Well, so people know us mostly for a signature and that will continue. But if you think about agreements, they go to an entire journey, and there is pain and

inefficiency at every point in that journey. If you think about salespeople from when they maybe reach agreement and principle to when they can finally sign an agreement, or a purchasing manager who's trying to figure out whether their vendors are living up to their obligations, or a recruiter trying to close a candidate, those are all at their core agreement problems. And we are delivering a suite to help companies solve their entire range of agreement problems and so.

Speaker 3

I'm a company, I have suddenly a central depository. I know exactly where all of my legal agreements are, and I can use generative AI to summarize them to ensure that I'm learning the most see whether ensure that they're basically following a theme, all in line and purpose. Why is this different from what perhaps when you unveil it in late May, what box cauld suddenly bring us with their central repository system and suddenly bring in GENAI.

Speaker 2

Yes, well, there are lots of folks who do storage and more generally manage documents.

Speaker 10

But agreements are very, very unique.

Speaker 2

They have a particular structure, there's a tremendous amount of data in and you need to understand the context. And so we are I think experts are that the largest players. So they've focused on agreements and have a tremendous amount of domain knowledge, understanding of the intricacy of agreements. And there's also workflow associated agreements, and then we're bringing out tools to help companies deliver those in a much more delightful and digitally neative way.

Speaker 5

Alan, Good morning, Zed in San Francisco. In the history of technology, there are companies that completely reinvent themselves, right.

Speaker 4

Take BlackBerry as an example.

Speaker 5

You used to make smartphones, it now largely makes automotive software. The E signature product is still everything for you guys. But I wonder if you are trying to tell your investors you're used as your audience, that you see a future for DocuSign where it's something different beyond E signature, where the main business is not E signature.

Speaker 2

Well, certainly beyond these signature, but E Signature will be critical to docu sign for years to come. It's such a valuable product, solves such a unique pain point very well, and after all, the signature moment is a pivotal to have the highest value moment in that agreement journey. What we're doing here is where we are expanding and providing a full suite of offerings related to every step in the agreement journey. No one has done that before. I

think we're the best position to do it. We have the trust, we have the customer reach and the expertise, and we're benefiting from recent developments in AI and so we're bringing all that to the table and I think now it's our moment.

Speaker 5

Alan, You've told a lot about doc You sign being in transition. In considering where you are in that transition, give yourself a scorecard ABC on your performance and where you've been in delivering that well.

Speaker 2

I like to measure outcomes, so I was certainly wouldn't hear myself at a yet. I think we are making really good progress.

Speaker 10

Give it a bit.

Speaker 2

We have done I think an excellent job idolizing the innovation engine now bringing out a really really robust suite of products informed by years of customer feedback and tremendous engagement for beta customers. And now it's time to take that to market and roll it out across all of the customer segments and geographies and industries that Docu Science serves,

and that will be a multi year journey. So certainly not job's not done yet, but this is a major milestone for us, and we're very excited about what the future holds.

Speaker 3

It comes to bear and you may come and tell us how it all goes. Antikason, it's so great to have some time with you. Thank you for stopping by the studio. Docu Signed CEO.

Speaker 5

Welcome back to Bloomberg Technology. Ed Ludlow here in San Francisco, car and Hid.

Speaker 10

In New York.

Speaker 3

Quick check on these markets as we head towards the weekend, and some caution in those markets risk aversion as we worry about geopolitical risks Israel around front of mind for many. We're seeing tech slocks all the benchmarks and in equities actually down amid some of that taking risk of the table as money goes into the one market, into the US dollar for example, or off by some seven basis points. But tech also getting dragged down by Chips. I'll speak

to that in a moment. Looking at Bitcoin, another key risk asset, just lower as the dollar goes higher. On some of this risker version. We're off by more than a percentage point, but basically flat over the last five trading days. Move on, have a little look what's happening on the individual movers because for once, actually Apple is on the higher side. We're still one hundred and seventy

six there or thereabouts. But this as we understand, thanks to Mark German, they are looking to overhaul the processes within some of their Mac lineup and four coming to the fore and indeed AI front and center on your computer. We're up by seven tens of percent. Socks, so Chip stocks. In fact, every single member of this particular index is

in the red today. Why Wall Street Journal reporting that China is now looking to fight back when it comes to that tip for TAT and chip access and they're saying to their Chinese cellcom giants, don't have foreign made chips by twenty twenty seven into your overall networks. That's sending AMD Intel in particular to the downside. This one's interesting. It's basically been a mean stock of choice of late

Destiny one hundred d XYZ. It's a closed then fund that gets you access to privately held companies if you want to gain access to the likes of Malplaid or whether it's Stripe, whether it's Open Ai, whether it's SpaceX. Well, this has been a way of doing it, but it's made itself a mean frenzy retail investors piling in one thousand percent increase at one percent at point, having just listed in the last month or so, we're down by

twenty two percent. But ed, it's not the only investment vehicle doing this.

Speaker 5

Yeah, hold that thought on Destiny Tech one hundred. We will come back to it. Kafe Woods Arc Investment Management has also announced that it holds a stake in open Ai through its venture fund in a bet that the AI industry will remake the tech landscape. Joining us now is Brett Winton, who is our chief futurists also a member of the investment committee. And Brett, you and I volte last night you got access to open ai, which is a private company with a closed profit structure through

a special purpose vehicle SPV. But it's part of a broader thesis around foundation models.

Speaker 4

Give me the short version of the thesis.

Speaker 11

Sure, AI software is going to revolutionize knowledge work and thirteen trillion dollars is going to be spent on AI software, and three trillion of that is going to flow into kind of what we think of as foundation model. So open ai and Andropic are the two most prominent examples with the best models in the marketplace, both of which

are in the venture fund. And three trillion dollars translates into an expectation for around sixteen trillion dollars in marketcap attributable to those foundation models.

Speaker 12

So to give you.

Speaker 11

Context, the global equity market is a little more than one hundred trillion dollars as of the end of last year, and so sixteen trillion. You know, it's a big chunk, almost sector sized in terms of our expectations for enterprise value foot print.

Speaker 5

Our venture fund is an interval fund which is made of eighty percent eight zero percent private companies twenty percent public. You can get access not just only to open AI, but SpaceX and anthropic. Why is it different or not the same as the Destiny Tech one hundred that Caroline was just explaining at the start of the segment.

Speaker 11

Because our interval fund is continuously offered. The price that you pay when you buy it is reflective of the value of the underlying securities in it. So if you buy one hundred dollars of an interval fund, you get one hundred dollars of net asset value. The Destiny Fund has a net asset value of less than five dollars, and they don't issue additional shares even if there's access demand.

So if you buy the Destiny Fund at fifty dollars, you're paying, you know, fifty dollars for five five dollars worth of exposure. Like that fund, roughly a little more than a third is SpaceX, but by one hundred dollars of that versus one hundred dollars of our venture fund, you actually end up with more exposure to SpaceX and our venture fund, which is just four point four percent

or roughly four percent of the venture fund. So it's really actually understand people want to get access to innovation.

Speaker 12

I think that's absolutely the right thing to.

Speaker 11

Do, and you need to be careful about how you get access to innovation. You should do so in a way where you're not buying, you know, ten cents worth of stuff for a dollar worth of spending, so.

Speaker 3

It's kind of down to structure and huge premium that you're currently seeing on dxyz. Do you also think it's something to do with the narrative this blew up on Reddit and other like minded, sort of retail focused areas. Do you think that your own ARC venture investment fund will do the same.

Speaker 11

I mean I think that, you know, I think that people are excited about innovation and they're looking for ways to access it, and this happened to kind of flash across social media channels in a way that inspired them to be like, oh, yes, I want access to that company, and conceptually they are, and actually practically there are much much more efficient and better ways to express that point.

Of view, and I think you can't, Like, you can't tell beforehand what's going to you know, take off on Reddit, but you can tell when something is going to end in tears for people. And so when you're buying ten cents for a dollar, you end up at the end of the day with something close to ten cents, even if it doesn't trade that Like, there's all kinds of ways in which that premium should diminish over the time. And so I would advise you to pay at a dollar and get the dollars worth of stuff.

Speaker 3

Well said, sixteen trillion dollars by twenty thirty. That's an arresting figure when you think of the overall market valuation for these foundational models, do you wish you could access more open AI and ultimately anthropic as well? When you're thinking of the rest that makes up the fund. When I'm looking at SpaceX, but epic games as well, free noome holdings, relation therapeutics, how much do you want foundational models the AI bet to take up of this fund.

Speaker 11

Well, the way we think about it is there are five major technology platforms entering the marketplace, and each has the potential for amazing compounding returns. And you're better off constructing a portfolio that has yes AI exposure and autonomous mobility exposure and multio mix exposure, because those exposures could independently fail. Like are we one hundred percent right on AI? I think it's going to be amazing and amazing revolution.

But if that that drags out to the right, it's unlikely that currencies also will drag out to the right. So by exposing yourself to a number of innovation platforms, you actually end up with a more efficient exposure to innovation as a whole that delivers better returns Brett.

Speaker 5

Last night, Bloomberg reported that Xai Musk's AI company is trying to raise between three and four billion dollars at around an eighteen billion dollar valuation. According to Frankly, our sources, but also a copy of the prospectus will arc through the venture funds try and add XAI given your coverage of SpaceX and Tesla already.

Speaker 11

I can't comment on future decisions. I will say that actually ownership in x confers a twenty five percent pro rat ownership in Xai, and I think that the company's future is actually closely intermingled. Xai's competitive advantage is it has real time access to everything that happens on X which is where our news effectively breaks.

Speaker 12

And in a world in which historical data.

Speaker 11

Is commoditized, which is part of what AI models are going to do, real time data becomes more valuable and dear, and so having a real time decision engine sitting at the front end of X I think is a really interesting and compelling value proposition for XAI.

Speaker 4

Brett.

Speaker 5

As you know, last night, I learned a lot about the venture fund, the mechanics of how it works. It's actually, I told you, very confusing. If you're a retail investor, you can access through Fidelity Titan and I'm blanking.

Speaker 4

There's a third one.

Speaker 5

So fine, but my point so far, give me a sense of how your announcement that you've built a pretty small stake in open Ai has moved the needle for that fund overnight this morning. Have you seen new customers an investment try to rush in because they now know that they can have some exposure there.

Speaker 11

I mean, the honest answer is, I don't know, because we don't get flows with you know that high degree of frequency, and the decision to invest in these companies is not a decision based upon how it's gonna attract attention. It's because we underwrite the positions and we think they deliver you know, outsized returns even relative to public market exposures.

So one of the benefits of this fund is, you know, we can look at, hey, this is an interesting company, and there's a comparable public company that that this is actually cheaper than. And so I think that the the you know, the potential for returns across all these technology platforms is really profound, and we want every investor, not just accredited investors, to be able to have access to those returns.

Speaker 3

R going back to the open AI thesis as one of the winners of the six trillion dollar market. One are themtions of it going up into the right because there are concerns about ultimately supply chain this coalition that's being built because we're worried about energy not only just the amount of chips that are necessary that are going to be building this future of generative AI, but also

is a competitive space right now. And also there's a weird corporate governance structure that goes on over over AI. What are the risks for you on that name?

Speaker 12

Sure, I mean are.

Speaker 11

There are corporate governance structures risks, and you know you can underwrite those, so we've gone through and assess them, but there is a degree of uncertainty there. There are

regulatory risks across all of technology exposures. I think that we look back to even like nuclear power is an amazing technology that was effectively derailed because of kind of the regulatory burdens put upon it back in the nineteen seventies, and there's the potential that that could happen with AI as well, where we're worried about something and so we deny ourselves all the benefits of it, but still take on all of the risks.

Speaker 12

And we think that there's a room for commercial.

Speaker 11

Models like open AI and anthropics and open source models like what Meta is developing.

Speaker 12

I think that the market will have a.

Speaker 11

Handful of solutions, any one of which could be profoundly valuable. And when you have this much market opportunity ahead of you, you know, you go for that asymmetric return where kind of like the one or two winners here are going to be profoundly valuable. And so we think an exposure is appropriate and actually necessary.

Speaker 5

Brett Winston, the Bench Investmental Walk Investment Management is great to have you on the program.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much for your time. We'll be right back. Stay changed.

Speaker 5

This is butting Back Technology.

Speaker 3

New York based adicle. It's just announced it's raised two hundred and fifty million dollars in taking on external investors for the first time. The person behind Ali Corn is known as the godfather of VC here in New York, Kevin Ryan, founder CEO of that business. We welcome into VC Spotlight. And before you spent a lot of time and focus on small sized businesses investing your own money because you had a huge exit back in the day, having of course been the CEO co founder of double

Click sold it to Google. Now, what is the reason you're bringing on external LPs.

Speaker 10

Yeah, it's more thinking long term.

Speaker 13

You know, I'm still a very important LP in this fun But when I think over the next twenty twenty five years, I think ALLI Corp. Will be a firm that is here, that is very present, that is going to be one of the leading firms. And to do that, you want to have sustainable source of money for the next seven funds.

Speaker 10

And so this is the beginning step for.

Speaker 3

That beginning step in taking bets on beginning businesses seeds and theeries. A.

Speaker 13

Yeah, it's not changing what we're doing yet. We do two things. We start companies from scratch, so I start six to eight companies a year, and then we invest in probably fifteen to twenty. So we have a portfolio of over one hundred companies and I have a twenty four person team, and so we've been doing that. We're going to continue to do that, and we're still seeing incredible opportunities out there.

Speaker 3

Many would know you for helping seed Mongo d B, which of course Big Exit traded hair in New York. But is that still the kind of company you want to be getting into. We're all talking about general to AI at the moment, but you're also focused on healthcare. Tell us the theses that you want to get.

Speaker 13

Yes, we have a couple different industry groups that we're focused on, so AI is definitely important thing. I just started a company with some people on my team called Radical that is a company focused on AI for material science. There's a very specific, very technical area and an enormous, enormous area, so that's a fundamental trend. Last year we started a company in assisted fertility. You and I both know that twenty years ago, none of our friends were

having their eggs frozen or IVF. That's growing, it will continue to grow for the next ten years. We have a big healthcare portfolio, so president in a lot of different areas, mental health areas in particular, psychedelic in particular. Started one company that's raised over fifty million dollars already, and I'm looking to start another company in that space. So the point is there are pockets and things to

be done. Technology is continuing to change the world and make it a better place, and we just want to think of these ideas or recognize them and help build these companies.

Speaker 5

Kevin, you called them pockets, but I kind of recognize outliers of activity. You know, you see a lot of rounds being done in AI. Actually I'm starting to see some in industrial technology. But I guess the commonality of the last four months is that each round, the check size is getting bigger. Yeah, and I wondered if you needed that two hundred and fifty million from outside investors because you've got to write bigger checks.

Speaker 13

No, our check size isn't really changing that much, you know, I had invested over two hundred fifty million dollars in the last several years, so this is a continuation of that. These some of the you know, some of the companies like Mango. You know, we started at fifteen years ago

with a million dollars. Dwight Merriman and I put that money in, but we raised four hundred million dollars as a private company and then spend another six hundred million dollars as a public company to get to break even. So large companies do take a lot of capital. We're not going to provide all of it. Early stage investors are taking the most risk and getting the most return by coming up with that idea in the very beginning.

But luckily there are lots of late stage funds that step in to help fund these.

Speaker 5

Were you able to be selective with LPs or were these LPs that were kind of coming to you and saying, I want some exposure to what's happening in AI right now, can you offer that to me?

Speaker 13

Yeah, we were. Fortunately, we were able to be pretty selective. We really just went out to family offices. It's a pretty small list of people. We wanted families that would add value. So these are all people that had come from the healthcare industry, the technology industry, something else. We can call on them if we want to do some due diligence. So we're pretty happy with that list of investors.

We didn't go very widely. There aren't large institutions. We don't have pension funds, because at least at this point, they would add less value than some of the family offices.

Speaker 3

I started this conversation by calling the godfather of NYC Tech, and it is because NYC Tech is now getting really serious. People do feel that there's an about change. And you've been there for a long time saying there are businesses to be built here, in businesses to invest in. Are we just drinking our own kool aid here at the moment?

Speaker 10

You know, it's incredibly clear.

Speaker 13

It's the fastest growing and has been the fastest growing tech center in the United States. Because people forget today that twenty five years ago there was no tech in New York. People would ask me, why is Doubleicke in New York and why not in Boston.

Speaker 10

No one would say that today.

Speaker 13

So today in New York already employees as many people in tech as San Francisco. There is no doubt in my mind that when we're sitting here. Ten years from now, New York will be a much bigger center of employment for tech and will start to have some of the very biggest companies out here. This is a place that has human talent, the top graduates from the entire IVY League.

Speaker 10

Mit. Everyone where do they want to live? To live in New York City?

Speaker 13

And that's what drives our industry and will continue to drive the industry.

Speaker 3

Sorry, Ed, I'm pretty sure they're still run for both of us. Kevin Ryan of Ali Cole absolutely wonderful to have you here on the show.

Speaker 5

When Adobe released its Firefly image generating model last year, the company said the artificial intelligence model was trained mainly on Adobe stock Images, its database of hundreds of millions of licensed images, but behind the scenes, Adobe was relying in part on AI generated content to train Firefly, including from those same AI rivals that we've been talking about for many months. Blue both Rachel Mets broke that story

with Brody Ford and joins us. Now, so let's focus very clearly on what the reporting on Earth Tier, what the new part is, and I think it's that we learned a lot more about how Firefly trained, but it's different to what Adobe had originally told us precisely.

Speaker 1

So.

Speaker 14

Adobe has spoken a lot very publicly about how Firefly is really different from the east rival image generators. And it turns out that it included a bunch of AI generated images, some of which are from mid journey in the training of Firefly. This was something I uncovered in my reporting. Brody and I work together to pull this story together and found that the company had done this. I mean, it was clearly done on purpose. It is not a huge amount of its training data, but it's in there.

Speaker 3

Nonetheless, what's important is, of course that this was deemed the ethical version of AI that you're paying for IP. And there's been some murkiness, to say the very least in some of the other rival foundational models and generative models that we've seen. I'm interested as to what Adobe said in response, because I'm sure they're aware of some of these synthetic images that they were bringing in. Is there any risk of IP in this one?

Speaker 8

Adobe was totally aware of what it was doing.

Speaker 14

I mean, we were looking at discord groups that the company runs.

Speaker 8

It was talking.

Speaker 14

It had people from the company talking on discord groups about including these images. They paid out a bonus in September to other people whose images were used to train the first version of Firefly, and that included people such as one of my sources who was in the story, who only contributed AI generated images to Adobe stock and most of those were mid journey made with mid journey.

Speaker 3

Fascinating as to therefore, how far back that we'll go? Rachel Metz is a great story, just so much coming out on Adobe at the moment. We appreciate her for it. That does it for this dedition of blumotechnology. What a wide ranging set of conversations we've had ed.

Speaker 5

Yeah, it's been a pretty intense week newsflow and markets wise. Now earning season comes and hits you in the face. What a lot of fun we still have to have recap the show. There was a lot of great Bloomberg reporting on Apple on Adobe's just heard in some pretty insightful interviews Brett Winton from ARC in particular on that unusual investment in Open Ai. Recap Apple, Spotify, iHeart, and we put the pod on the Bloomberg platforms.

Speaker 4

Happy Friday. This is Bloomberg Technology

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