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Martha Gimble, executive director at the Yell Budget Lab, and Martha, I want to get back to terrorists because it's been pushed completely aside. We'll get to the war and oil in a moment. What is your run rate now of terrorists? Do do? I believe you're back to nineteen thirty nine on the tariff impact, so.
It's about nineteen forty three, but you know, nineteen thirty nine nineteen forty three, what's a couple of tariff rates between friends at this point right? It's high? I think is the real point?
What do we say about the impact on our listeners and viewers distracted by five dollars a gallon gas?
I mean, you're still going to see continually rising prices. You know. One of the things that we've been talking about is trying to figure out how much of tariffs have actually been passed through already. I think the sort of back of the envelope easiest number to kind of fixate on is around fifty percent. It's not exact, but gives you an idea, and so you know, you still have costs that are waiting to hit the consumer again at the same time that you're obviously seeing a lot
of pressure from energy prices. By the way, Tom, I just wanted to you know, you were talking about the team just as a measure of the dedication of the team. The team was up late last night like incorporating new ways of how they realized metal tariffs impact dary. So I do just want to say, you know, this is a team that is always iterating, always trying to make sure they're doing this exactly right, and I just want to give them a huge, huge shout out.
Martha.
What's the given that we have a one year kind of perspective here, what's kind of the layout of who really bore these tariff expenses, whether it be the exporter, the importer, companies, consumers. How's that shacking out now?
So at this point it's probably, you know, partially consumers. You know, prices, for instance, for durable goods do look like they've been affected. You've also seen companies trying to hold on right because there's been so much uncertainty about these tariffs, and companies don't like raising prices if they don't have to write make consumers mad, and so you know they've been trying to hold on, but at some point the economic pressures become too much and then they have to raise prices.
So where do we think we go from here? Give us a sense of how constructive or how adamant that administration is in terms of imposing these tars. Have they been really on top of it?
Do you think?
I mean? I think you know at the moment, we have these kind of temporary tariffs in place while they figure out the new legal authorities they're going to be using. I think one thing that's really hard is that at this point, I think we have a pretty good sense of what the headline tariff number is going to be. You know, let's call it somewhere between eleven and fifteen percent. But if you're a business that actually doesn't help you very much, you don't need to know what the headline
You know, you and I care. You need to know what the effect of tariff rate is for your industry, for your products, and there we just have know certainty and or we don't know which products are going to be targeting.
To get all McKinley on, you and the President would say this, you estimate we're raising nine zero zero, just under a trillion dollars out X number of years. By all of this, with the war, with the massive Pentagon budget, are we addicted whether we agree or disagree with tariffs, are we now addicted to that tax cash flow?
I mean, I think you're asking the question that a lot of people are starting to kind of whisper to themselves. Right, It's really really hard to raise taxes in DC. Economists would tell you raise literally any tax except for tariffs. Right. They're really inefficient, they have really high economic costs. At the same time, it seems to be the only tax that were able to raise.
Well. De Paul's good question before given all the distractions, folks, the screen that I'm seeing here, I just saw the House will not vote on the DHS thing. Ed Ludlow just sent me how the Orion mission is going to go from seventeen thousand miles per hour to twenty four thousand miles per hour. We're going to have Ludlow one at nine o'clock hour. I mean, all these distractions, Martha, what on a baseball sense, think Ron Darling at Yale years ago. On a baseball sense, Martha Gimbal, where are
we in the tariff impact? Are we like I think there's a feeling we're in the ninth inning. I don't buy it. Where are we in the tariff effect?
We're not even at the seventh inning stretch, you know, we're you know, only just starting to get there. You have to remember, Smoot Holly took years to you know, fully incorporate and this is it's not the case that you raise tariffs and the effects of those are fully incorporated the next day, especially when those tariffs have been so uncertain as these have been. I'll get it, No, you have no idea what.
I'll get it out on LinkedIn and Twitter as well. It's the budget lab. But yeah, I can't say enough about the clarity and this sickness of it. Martha Gimble there with a great team.