Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington Led. You're with us here on balance of power. There's still an Iranian proxy group that is on the attack against Israel. It's an important story that we want to get to here, and one that hits the terminal with the headline Israel hits back at Houthi's in Yemen
after their slow escalation. This is something that may not have been on your radar over the holiday, but Houthis have been shelling Israel from two thousand kilometers away and Israel is now responding airstrikes that we can confirm hit rebel targets in the capital of Sana, including the airport
and a power station. And it's the capital of Yemen, and something that we want to talk about with former Ambassador James Jeffrey back with us here on the broadcast, former US Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, now sure of the Wilson Center Middle East Program. Mister ambassador, it's great to see you here. Is this just noise or the start of something new?
Joe, thanks for having me on. And this is a continuation of what has been a region wide walk between Irean and its various proxies and allies. The h group you can call them, Hamas Isbela, the Hoodies against Israel, a reluctant but extremely important supporter of the United States, and bits and pieces of other Arab states and Europeans, particularly against the Hooties. The last man standing, so to speak, right now, is the Hoodies. Irean has lost its missile deterrent.
The Israelis handled it well and struck back. Hods has excuse me, sued for a ceasefire. Hamas is all that wiped out, But the Israelis and the international community still is having to deal with the Hoodies. Besides shelling Israel with these long range ballistic missiles are also shutting down international seat traffic and the rid Sea. This has a significant impact on everything.
Well, we've talked about the impacts on shipping quite a bit here, Ambassador, and I know that there were greater concerns a couple of months ago. As attention returns to Hoho thi's now the impact on shipping and of course the attacks against Israel. Is this going to be the last piece to fall? Can Israel cut off this group from Iran?
The Hoodies have been very, very hard to shut down. The United States tried half heartedly, basically by intercepting missiles fight at ships, but that wasn't successful in the Rid Sea, and it certainly hasn't deterred them. Israel can take out capabilities, but as long as the Hoodies can get additional supplies from Arian, particularly missile components, now they can keep this up. Israel has to weigh a decision whether to hold Iran
responsible for what one of its proxies is doing. I think that Israel will eventually decide if the Hoodies don't shut this thing down, to go after Iran.
Ambassador, I want to ask you about what's happening in Ukraine, where it was a deadly Christmas for some Ukrainians. Russia directed more than seventy crews in ballistic missiles and one hundred strike drones against the country in Christmas Day, strikes on the company's the country's energy infrastructure. We've seen this, of course over the past couple of winters. Vlatimer Putin
is no stranger to using cold as a weapon. What are we going to see between now and January twentieth McDonald Trump takes office in Ukraine.
Between now and then we'll see the Russians inching forward and I underline inching forward. On the ground, they're not doing all of that well, although they have superior human and material resources, and continuing to strike sensitive pots of the Ukrainian infrastructure such as electricity, But none of this is going to change the outcome of the war. It
is basically a steelmate. It is calling out for some kind of negotiation to try to freeze this conflict and bring this part of the world back to something like normal. So I think that some of what you're seeing is last minute pushing back and forth. The Russians believe that Donald Trump is going to push hard for some kind of settlement.
He sure says he will. In that world, do you freeze the map where it is now? Does Ukraine lose the ground permanently that it has lost to Russia in this war?
The best example that I can cite historically is the Korean War. We ended it with a steelmate nineteen fifty three. The steemate is still holding. South Korea never gave up its claim to those parts of Korea that are held by now the Kim Yonglin North Korean Communist regime legally, but in practical terms there, I'm trying to take it back, and the American security commitment is only to those parts
of Korea that the South Korean government controls. I imagine whatever we get in the end will begin with something like that. There'll be other issues concerning Russia and it's near abroad, NATO and how the basic major pillars of security in Europe are rearranged. But at the center of it will have to be some settlement in Ukraine that basically will freeze the conflict.
There's been some disturbing reports that I'm sure you have heard about this Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft that crashed in Kazakhstan. Reports suggest that Russia Russia anti aircraft fire may have been the reason ambassador why that airplane went down. They've looked at damage to the aircraft. They've looked at footage of the crash. If this ends up being true, what should happen to Russia.
Well, the problem is we have condemned Russia in so many ways. We have imposed so many sanctions on Russia. A Malaysian airplane full of holiday travelers from the Netherlands was shot down in twenty fourteen. By it turns out Russian anti aircraft. This is nothing new. What's particularly troubling is it looks like after the plane was hit, it tried to make an emergency landing on Russian territory and it was told to overfly the Caspian Sea to land
in Kazakhstan. It actually almost made it, but clearly the intent was for it to crash at sea without any evidence.
What should be the US posture on this?
Well, again, the US has already condemned Russia from here to Sunday for its invasion of Ukraine and many other actions. This is simply another example of the behavior that everyone, including the new Trump administration, will have to recognize is unacceptable and needs to have a very strong response. Right now, we have a response, which is to stop the Russians and not Ukraine. You saw we basically stop the Russians in Syria and they're now all but out.
Ambassador Jeffrey, we're hearing Donald Trump talk about the Panama Canal. He wants the US to have control over the canal once again, I guess, unless a new deal can be made with Panama. He wants to take Greenland into the Fold, which we've been hearing about as well. And I know that both of these might be with regard to Chinese
influence around the globe. But as someone who actually worked as a diplomat in the first Trump administration, you were Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat isis what is it like to be a diplomat under a Trump administration without always knowing what the go forward is going to be when you get on an airplane to go talk with some one abroad.
It has its charms and it has its disadvantages as well. One thing is that people take Donald Trump very seriously. They saw what happened to cost some solimione.
You know.
Believe me. However much Americans may or may not have responded, dictate us out that picture of a bleeding Trump pumping his fist into the sky after he was shot, and they see it as somebody they don't want to mess with. That's actually good if you're covering our diplomatic instructions. The problem is the instructions often change, but the underlying policies
usually do not. That I'm wandering stressed. Trump tries to get headlines, He tries to shock people, He tries to shake things up, But in the end we were carrying out policies not all of that different from those that the Biden administration continued to its credit.
How about that in our remaining moment, then do you take him seriously on Greenland and Panama?
I take seriously that he wants a farm or a sort of United States that will push transactionally for its advantage around the world, and everybody needs to be unnice for that. And there's nothing like threatening to seize Panama or seize Greenland to get people unnoticed. But no, neither of these things are going to happen.
From someone who knows James Jeffrey is great to see you here. I hope you had a great Christmas and happy New Year to you. The former Ambassador James Jeffrey former US Ambassador to Iraq in Turkey. He's now chair of the Wilson Center Middle East Program