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Norian Rapini, I've had some pain capital rise the following. If the president walks away from the war with around now, the threat to shipping in the strata for almost will remained. Despite the obvious risks, he has every reason to try to finish the job. Norielle, good morning, good morning, and good luck as well. You know, to explain the last few days, what is the status of things in your mind and where do you think this is headache?
Well, there are two options.
One need is to de escalate and walk away from this war and get to a ceasefire. But they're going to get a ceasfire without the deal with you run and he runs control the strait of Hormus is.
Going to threaten the Gulf and the supply of oil.
Your regime is actually much more radical today and it was before because Motaja Cameminison is more radical than his father. They're going to rebuild the ballistic missiles. They're going to build even more. They're going to even try to enrich the Ringum. They have to eapon grade and have a bomb. So it's a disaster.
You know.
Trump is already behind in the polls this war has been a bit of a failure, but now going away from it implies that's going to for Shure lose the mid terms, not just a House, but probably the Senate.
So I think that, in spite of all the rhetoric about negotiations and getting a ceasefire, my more likely scenario, I give you the two thirds probabilities one in which the US has to escalate and finish the job, and escalat means take over carg Island, try to take over even the state of Hormus, try to reopen it, try to a regym collapse, and win this war and finally
have a more stable Middle East. It's a very risky one because if you take that chance, you might win, but there's also a chance that you lose, and then they beat the block even more hormous, they destroy even more energy supplies of the Gulfs and then end up in nineteen seventies circulation. But my view, escalating and winning is more likely than escalator and losing. And given the politics and electual dynamics, you left to escalate.
So if you escalate and you end up losing, you said, it's nineteen seventies clflation all over again, if you win, what does that look like based on the risk premia that are likely to go on a lot of physical goods and a question about staff piling in different regions as a result of multiple different supply chain shocks.
Well, if you escalate, a win means that you take over carg Island, you cut off by ninety percent the revenues of the government. You continue the bombing campaign, you destroy the military assets, you take over even the nuclear
kind of weapon grade uranium. You try to destroy the leadership, You try to have regime collapse, and you try to keep open as much as you can see it overmus while defending the oil energy facility of the golfis If all these things happened and you win, then actually you got rid of the regime and for a short term, maybe two three months, you have all prices about one twenty. But then you're going to go to a stable world.
And by the way you run, controlling the set of Hormus is a threat to the Golf, treat to Israel is a threat to Europe, is traight to Asias, that threat to the United States. So as the Emmiratis have been saying clearly this is not acceptable and this is the same view that people all over the golf have.
Is not an acceptable solution.
So given what has happened, you have to try to finish the job, and finishing job means having the facto regime collapse, either formal regim collapse or informally a situation which this regime is not any more a threat to the region and to the world.
All the regime has been weakened, though you give that point to the president, but absolutely collapse. There's been no evidence that we've seen defections and they're still in control.
Well, the facto collapse, in my view, means that you take over carg Island, You try to reopen the stet of ormos, You try to make sure that they cannot destroy more energy facilities in the Gulf. You keep on bombing the hell out of them for weeks. They've already been eroded a lot, and every day is thousands of new targets within Isral in the United States. You may even be able to kill some of the remaining leadership and the facto. That effectively a regime collapse, it's not
a region collapse. A regime that doesn't have a nuclear weapon doesn't have weapon cannot threat in the state of homost and whether it's former regime collapse or not at that point doesn't matter. But that means finishing the job.
Noriah, we got about sixty seconds left. You lived in Tehran. Yeah, as a child. How personal is this for you?
You know, I'm a Persian Jew, so I was in Iran last one I was three years old, I lived in Israel, grew up in Italy in the US, so I don't take it personally. But I would say that while this is an appalling regime and the current one is worse than a previous one, the threat is not just to Israel. The threat is not just to the jess country. The threat right now is not just to Europe.
Europe is threatn from an economic point of view. From a military point of view, the missiles along by the luge ballist the missiles of Iran can reach anywhere of the European Union. Is a threat to the world. Is not acceptable. You can discuss whether it was the writing or not to start this war, when once you start it, if you don't finish it, it's going to be much worse than the situation previously.
So given the risk you have to try.
To finish the job and having effective regime collapse or the regime boxed in anyway, it's not any more attract Norea.
We appreciate your time and your experience. Thanks for sharing it with us.
Thank you.