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Definitely my highlight of the day, Jamie Diamond, a lot to talk about. JP Morgan, Chair and chief Executive, Thank you so much for hosting us again again at your Global market conference. What's market turbulence looking like right now? So we have the CPI print yesterday, markets rally are there getting ahead of themselves?
Yeah, so I wouldn't call it turbulence, and we've got We've had good, healthy markets for quite a while. You know, they're kind of predicting a soft landing. And you see that in both Dock prizes, which are kind of high credit breads, which are kind of low markets, which a kind of wide open that's all good, doesn't tell what the future is going to be. Magott point a lot of times in history where that was true and the next year wasn't true. And so you know, we'll see.
I don't pay as much attention to monthly numbers as most people.
Do, I know, So what do you think the future is for inflation?
And I'm a feeling more worried about it. I mean, you know, we've had very big fiscal deficits, and you know, I think the underlying inflation may not go away the way people expected to. And I look at the future like a lot of things. We look at a kind of inflationary in the green economy, the remilitarization of the world, the infrastructure requirements, the restructure of trade, fiscal deficits. So I think there are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us that you know, may keep it a
little bit higher than people expect. So the surprise would be rates are higher, inflation a little bit higher, and maybe that'll slow growth. And obviously geo politics a whole different issue that can that could be determinative in what our commy does next year, and we just we're just not going to know.
But does that mean you think it's fifty to fifty whether the FED cuts or hikes at.
You next time next one.
I really don't pay that much tense to that. The FED will have to follow the data, and I don't know what the data is going to say, but they I think, you know, they are doing the right to be patient right now, see see what's going to happen. They may not know for a couple of months.
But no big correction. If you don't pay you know that much attention to it. It means you're not worried about it, not moored.
I just said, doctor, are very high, either the chances of inflation staying higher or race going up, or higher than other people things. So I think the chance, my view is whatever the world is pricing it for a soft landing, I think it's probably half that. I think the chance of something going wrong is higher than.
People think in the US globally, well.
I say in the US, but also that could affect globally.
Yeah, and so that what does that mean for market?
There'd be down and credits president' got gap out?
So why is the market up pricing.
That in a lot of happy talk?
Where does that happy talk come from?
Low rates, central banks and reduced rates? You know, maybe the geopolitical things disseminate, don't cause problems, and so you know, the future isn't predictable like that. So you know, I'm a student of history. I've watched all the inflection points that you go back, and my dad was a stock broker. I go back to the booming markets seventy two and the collapse of seventy four, the healthy markets of eighty
the collapse of eighty two. You know the ninth the eighty seven crash, the nineteen ninety real estate crash, and almost all of them were not predicted the year before. So I look at these factors that drive these things are not always known. As a company, we prepare for all of us. We can serve all our clients regardless.
But what do you see as the main stress right now?
Because if it's geopolitics, we talk about it, it's just not really priced it.
Where does is it distress? Is it something actually going.
Under that you worry about, or just a multiple factors coming out at the same time.
I think, well, geopolitics could create the main stress that we're worried about in terms of oil and gas prices or trade alliances. But I think the surprise would be higher rates because inflation didn't go down, that inflation has been stubborn and maybe bounces up next year. I think inflation next year may be in the cards, may have nothing to do with what you're seeing today. So that
to me is the surprise. If you at higher rates and God forbid stagflation, Yeah, you'll see stress in real estate and leverage companies and some private credit and things like that. So it's unpredictability is in your normal I think it's been the enormous since my whole life have it.
It's not worse now.
No what happens between China and the US, and what does that mean for your appetite of being China.
Yeah, so the geopolitical situation is very tense, for the more the Ukraine and Russia, Iran, the terroors, activities in Israel, North Korea, nuclear black mail. We've never had nuclear black mail before. And this is of course affecting our relationship with China, and you know, it's gonna be hard to have a great relations with China. The Ukraine war zone, we're kind of in different sides of that, and put
Taiwan aside. Having said that, I think it's the right thing for America to fully and deeply engage with China, you know, competitively. You know, every nation is going to do it's in their own interest in national security, social America. We should define that fairly improperly. If it's unfair trade, you know, negotiate that or do whatever you need to do. But the engagement is the right thing to do. China is not the natural end of the United States. They
have a lot of their own problems. So you know, to me, we could work together as best we can and then we have common interest climate, anti nuclear referation, anti terrorism.
What does it mean for a bank working in China? Actually, given all of this volatility, they're cautious.
I mean, you know China, if you look at China from a risk of war basis, it used to be very good. It's not so good anymore because all these things can go wrong. And remember we bank I mean, I've got the number, but fifteen hundred multinationals in China. They're not leaving China, so who are going to serve our clients there? We're just much more cognizant that the risk is higher. I might put Hong Kong in that
bucket two. You know, we kind of look at China Hong Kong as one at this point from a risk standpoint.
What does a Trump administration mean for the US economy?
I don't know, you know, they're.
Why because it's unfreakictable, or because we're too soon to actually try trying to figure out the policies that he leaves put in place.
So if you look at history, who was elected president may not necessarily effect the next year. That's kind of like we're a big tanker and that's going to happen. I think the much more important thing is what we do in the geopolitical situation. You know. I've always been quite clear that American leadership is provided to keep the world free and safe for democracy, and that means economic alliances, which includes trade. By the way, I think we should
spend more time in trade. It means NATO. It means that Russia should not win in Ukraine, because if they do, I think it can tear us under this Western world.
I know you've ruled out being Treasury secretary. What would it take to get you into politics?
I don't think I've suited for politics. I love my job, you know, and I'm not sure I want to do something like that. And I can hope.
Even if you got the call, would it be hard to say no?
I don't know. Probably yes, I love my job, and I have noticed in even of doing ZIDL.
So what we're in France at a global markets conference. What are you expecting from Bazel three? What will Ja Powell put in place?
And you rule book?
I should mention, by the way, because President McCrone has done an outstanding job here. Pro Business got us to move our trading floors here. You know, he wants to grow his economy. There's much more innovation. We had a thing lasts by a lot of innovation. So look Basil three. We've been quite clear. We thought it was excessive, not well thought through. I would love to know what the
endgame is. What are they trying to accomplish with private credit or are they trying to accomplish with like even the other day, eighty percent of more has left the system, and now the government's talking about having a bailout system for mortgage companies because they're no longer in a bank that has the ability to provide liquidity in tough markets. That would be the same thing in market making. So
they're looking at it. You know, I trust Jay Powell to look at and analyze what they need to do, how they need to do it. The other thing, which I'm not sure the Europeans no, I have no idea, and it may end up in a lawsuit or something like that. But the amazing thing to me is that America ended up through the endgame thirty percent more capital than the European bank in America, And I just why we argue about international standards and then we simply don't
do them. And also I think the regulation answer the question what do you want how do you want the system to work? Is do you want it to put private credit a public credit? Do you want mores out of the banks? Just dictated? If that's the goal, just dictated. If you don't want leverage landing the bank just dictated. You know, and I think you know we are guardian into the financial system. You know, we bank, you know, we bank one hundred countries and you know we're on
the ground of sixty countries. You know, we do great work for cities, schools, states, hospitals, soul or when climate middle market companies, is that what they don't want or they do want, you know, they want to make it.
More experienced, they know? Are they still trying to figure it out?
I think they've got to figure it out. I don't think it's quite clear from any now. So they did. You guys should read it and write about it. There was no detailed analysis about cost benefit, what they're trying to accomplish, what the outcome would be.
That's why that's why we're asking you, right, Jamie, talk to me about front. So you're you're positive on the president. I also know that you were the chiefs Frants event on Monday. If he relacs labor laws, would you hire more in this country?
He did relax labor laws, but if he relack some more possibly, you know, we now have a thousand people here, we have large trading or here was straight. I've got the number five or eight, five or six or seven eight hundred million dollars a day. When you have a thousand people, you tend to hire more and more technology more, and that's been true for us since I've been at JP Morgan. Once you have a very competent group of people and you have hiring and capability and friends, you
tend to do more things there. So my view is we will be doing more things here. And it was the tax leader they put in place, the regulations they put in place, the labor flexibility they put in place. Those things do make a difference, and very importantly, they don't just lift up JP Morgan here. We pay a lot of taxes here which help lift up all citizens. I don't think President Macrohane did that for JP Morgan.
He did because he knows his country needs to grow, bring it innovation, and that's how you build a better country.
So the chief executive is the largest wealth fund in the world, says that actually America is doing much better because Americans are less lazy or work harder than the Europeans.
I mean, is that fair? Is that regulation?
I hate total blanking statements like that. I know a lot of Europeans who work hard, but I think when you see the things about work hours, I think it is somewhat true. Americans are hard working. Anywhere you go around Americas is hardworking. But I see that here too, I don't think. And the innovation people you meet the working just as hard as the innovation people in the United States.
So you also in terms of headcount in the UK, I think it's at the highest that it's ever been. And you're also doing you're giving money to try and retrain, and you've recently met with possibly the next Prime minister.
E see so far advance in the polls. What do you think?
Yeah, Look, I like the fact that both the conservative and the labor governments are talking about pro business, simpler regulations, getting more innovation in the country, becoming competitive and we all need like we all have too much debt. Growth is the best anecdote for antidote for everything, and so having a growth strategy is good for a country and it's good for the lower income people. And this training stuff is maybe the most important is get training jobs.
That first job as a first run in the ladder creates dignity, you know, more home household formation, and I think countries have to do more of that because if they don't, you know, you can have a tough time.
But do you think the UK Commy will change under Labor?
I don't know yet, but I was. I was happy with what they were talking about. We had Rachel Reeves come to our conference too that they're all talking from the playbook. We need growth, simpler regulations, more capital formation, more capital investment in proper taxation because that's the way to help our whole country and all our citizens. So that is what we shall all be doing.
Jimmie Dunman, we talk around, you know, India all the time. Is this a decade for India and does it somehow counterbalance China for you know, world growth?
Yeah, Look, I think India has done a very good job. And you know, when you look at India, yes, it should have a very bright future. I'm not saying as account in a China, but a very bright future. And I think we shall all be reaching out to India that you know, they have to stay not aligned to the kind of where they are in the world between Russia and China, but you know they're a democracy, they're a natural friend of America and the Western world, and
we shall all be helping them. And they've they've made a lot of changes there, infrastructure, transfer payment, seven hundred million people bank accounts that are going to be very good for that country.
So what does that mean for JP Morgan?
Well, we're not we're not in the retail business there, but we will be in. We have sixty thousand employees there. We got big campuses, high technology, and we're expanding our trading, our research, our investment banking. Yeah, we're there at a big time.
Can you talk to me a little bit about JP Morgan on how I mean you've had a number of high profile departures. How does that change actually the way you focus your business and.
How you run things going forwards?
Not at all?
Nothing zero. If you were to buy anything, what would you buy?
Oh that's different. Look, we have we can't buy banks. You do know that?
So you know you could buy your European bank, could you?
I wouldn't even try. I think the American related to hey, I think the regulators he would hate it. Even if they said go ahead and do it, I'd probably be in courts and things for a year and a half. Huge distraction in my own company. I'd rather just say we want to add clients in this country, and clients and that kind of add bankers and technology and branches. It's just a better way for us to grow.
Okay.
But if there's if you could buy anything, I mean not about injury, but you were thinking of something.
Yeah, we always look at stuff. Yeah, so we're not looking at any major acquisition or anything like that.
Technology, you know feel what we're doing.
We're adding literally and we have investor Day next week. We're adding retail and wholesale branches. We're adding them in the United States. We're almost all the major hundred cities there now. We're adding commercial banking all over Europe and Asia. We're adding technology around payments and even a blockchain called Onnex to move data and maybe move money one day.
We're constantly investing. We have two hundred people, two thousand people in AI and machine learning for use cases on the way to probably I know if I.
Speak in five years, how much bigger and how much different to.
Be speaking to a fake diamond who's just answering question avatar an avatar?
Yeah, do you think about technology a lot?
Yes, all the time, every meeting we have. This has been true my whole life. When we have any management meeting, your technology jets on the table that includes AI cloud, just more analytics. What are you doing to do things better, faster, quicker for clients digital huge amount of digital services, integrating them better or to mating them better.
But that would change, I mean that will change, I guess see the heart of banking. Does that mean that you'll see more winners and losers because of the technological eventments?
So technology has always changed the heart of banking, moving money, holding money, advising money, rating, That won't change, and you have to do that of coording to rules, laws, regulations by country. But it'll change is how you deliver it. So like right now you go on your phone, you can move money and buy stocks. That wasn't true twenty years ago. So yes, everything you do will change to the technology. But you still have to move money, budget,
raise money, make investments, et cetera. So you know, the core won't change, but will change. Regulations may change that too, obviously, so in the US.
So again, would a Trump presidency be more favorable to banks when it comes to regulation?
You know, I don't. I don't know. I mean, you know, I am unhappy with the amount of rules and regulations coming out today. I don't know what a second administration of either one would do. I'm hopeful that they focus on growth, wh's good for the citizens, what's good for the country, and I would help anyone I can to do that for my country. I'm quite patriotic about that, and I do think you need to In terms of service, I think you needed no helping.
Helping as the bank. It's good to get that clear exactly. Okay, j P, thank you so much for joining us. That was, of course the JP Morgan, a chief executive officer,