Gaza.
Peace talks underway in the Middle East between Israel and international mediators, Axios reporting some progress was made on the first day of discussion, citing US officials. This coming as Israel braces for a possible attack from Iran. Joining US now is Ambassador John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor and former Ambassador to the UN. Ambassador Bolton, thank you
so much for being with us. I want to start with what you think of the recent talks underway and why you think Iran has not retaliated yet.
Well.
With respect to the talks, the administration saying making progress. You know, they've been saying making progress on these talks for about four or five months now and never seem to get to the finish line. I think there's still enormous gaps between the Israeli position and the Hamas position. I'm not saying a miracle couldn't happen. It happens in the Middle East from time to time, but I wouldn't look forward.
I do think.
Iran has hesitated to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Hania, the Hamas leader in Tehran. They need to strike back. I think very strongly they've been humiliated by what Israel did killing this terrorist leader in their capital in a secure compound with a bomb planted two months before. It shows nobody in Iran is safe from Israel, including the
Supreme Leader. On the other hand, the Iranian leaders are also intimidated by bb Netan, Yahoo, and israel I think this time they are worried that the US will not be able to pressure Israel into a limited response as Israel did after the three hundred and twenty drone and missile assault on Israel from Iran's territory some months ago. Really, Iran is more intimidated by Israel than it is by
the Biden administration. So they've got a difficult decision how strong a response to make to restore their own very damaged credibility versus their fear of what Israel would then do to them.
Well, in April, when those three hundred missiles were flying over, it was because of the US defense that Israel's able to fend them off, Ambassador, Given your level of intel regarding Iran, how can they retaliate but also try to not strike this cycle of endless retaliations back and forth.
Well, let's come back to the April attack. Wall Street Journal and CBS reported that of the one hundred and twenty ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel, sixty never made it within range to be shot down. They either blew up on the launch pad or crashed before they got close enough, which speaks to the quality of Iran's ballistic missile force. But if there had been one hundred and twenty rather than sixty ballistic missiles in the skies over Israel, I don't think it would have been such
a good performance. The cycle that's at work here is caused by Iran. Look, this is not a war between Palestinians or Gozans and Israel. This is a war by Iran against Israel, what they themselves call the ring of Fire strategy. And as long as the current regime in Tehran is in power, seeking nuclear weapons, arming, equipping, training, financing, giving intelligence to multiple terrorist groups in the region, threatening not only Israel but the golf Arab states too, there's
going to be conflict. And what's driving Israel and the golf Arabs closer together is they all see Iran as the main strategic threat, and they think the United States is feckless.
As these sees fire talks continue. Do you agree with the idea that Iran could potentially use those if they were to Incadeal use that as an off ramp to not retaliate.
Well, they may want to use it as an off ramp, but I think it would be a big blow to Iran's prestige. You know, they're not exactly stepping up here to take responsibility for what happened to Hamas after the October seven attack, and they've also not been able yet to persuade Hezbalalah to use its unbelievably large arsenal of missiles against Israel. So as I say, I think it's the fear of further Israeli retaliation that has the Iranians intimidated.
With that retaliation coming from Israel if Ron does do some sort of large attack. Ambassador Bolton, what is the ability of the US and its allies to reign in Netanyahu's response?
Well, I'm sure that the Biden administration will want to rein them in. They've been afraid of this issue and the war in Ukraine dominating the news in the United States because it shows a world in chaos due to three and a half years of American weakness. Really, what they would like to see is this go away until after election day, even though Biden's no longer running himself.
You know, Frankly, I think the lesson to be learned is that the prospect of a really forceful Israeli response if Israel comes back at them, shows that a strong posture toward these rogue states is the way to go. And Iran has a lot to fear from Israel. It should have a lot to fear from the United States, but at the moment it doesn't.
And Ambassador a lot of times when we're talking about this retaliation, even if Iran would like to do that without provoking a response, the question always comes into the fore, what is the likelihood that mistakes are made, mistakes are made that escalate things further, and that there's been this conversation that it won't just be around this time, but Hesbelah as well, are the aws for mistakes higher by involving proxy forces in the retaliation to the retaliation to the retaliation.
Well, look, I think you have to look at what the strategic picture is. There is a regional war in the Middle East now of Iran against Israel on five fronts. Hezbalah from Lebanon Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the hoodies that have closed the Suez Canal red Sea passage, one of the most important commercial shipping channels in the world,
closed effectively since October. The Shia militia in Iraq and Syria that have been attacking American positions and Iran itself, and the question is how do they dial up one or the other. Israel does fear Hesbelah's arsenal, which in
public estimates this is an extraordinary number. But public estimates are that Hezbola has between one hundred and twenty and one hundred and fifty thousand missiles, which would obviously be enough to overwhelm Israel's air defenses, and leads to the question, if they really think it's about to happen, might not Israel strike first.
It's complicated. It's not mistakes.
It's the fact that the leadership in Tehran is determined to destroy the Little Satan.
That's what's at work here.
Ambassador Bolton. Yesterday we heard from Foreign President Donald Trump, who you worked for it. I'm not looking to be bad to Iran. We're going to be friendly, I hope with Iran. Maybe, but maybe not. But we're going to be friendly. I hope we're going to be friendly. Do you know what Trump two point zero's policy towards Iran potentially will look like.
Look, he has no idea what it will look like.
People who look at what happened in the first term and believe that it'll be the same in the second term, I think are are mistaken.
It's always possible.
But remember Trump almost met with Iran's then foreign minister job At Zarief at the ba ritz G seventh Summit in August of twenty nineteen. Emmanuel mccron, the President of France, had Zarif in a villa in bea Ritz almost persuaded Trump to do it. The attraction to Donald Trump of making a deal with anybody is hard to quantify. It really goes off the charts, and it could be the
same way in a second term. That's why I think there's a certain amount of pressure on the Israelis if they're going to do something, to do it now rather than to wait for the uncertainty of the American election.
Ambassador John Bolton, thank you so much for taking the time