Former US House Speaker Paul Ryan Talks Trump's Agenda - podcast episode cover

Former US House Speaker Paul Ryan Talks Trump's Agenda

Jan 22, 20256 min
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Episode description

Paul Ryan, Former US House Speaker, comments on US trade, deficit, and US growth. He speaks with Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

Lots of changes overnight on the trade front once again, lots of threats that we can explore with the former US House Speaker, Paul Right, speaker run.

Speaker 3

It's going to say you good to be with you.

Speaker 2

Let's think about the ideology at the sitting president. What is the ideology? What's your familiarity with the ideology around things like Tright?

Speaker 4

I think the best way to describe as America First. I think he's articulately in America first on trades, a little more more caantilistic, say than the traditional Republican you know, Reagan free trade. But America first is the quickest way of describing it. A lot of good fiscal policy, you know, regulatory policy, tax policy, there's a lot of optimism, frankly, but on trade, I mean, I'm sure you have an international audience here.

Speaker 3

There's going to be some trade friction, no two ways.

Speaker 2

About it, without a doubt. How do you feel about them? Cancil has taken over the Republican party.

Speaker 3

It's not the right step.

Speaker 4

Well, there's different kinds of Republicans. I'm a classical liberal, free market, free trade Republican. So I'm a different breed of a Republican. His red of populist Trump Republican is the ascendant breed. They're basically the dominant force in the Republican Party. Donald Trump is the dominant force in the Republican Party, no toys about it. But we have a coalition that is playing nice with each other right now. And frankly, I'm optimistic on a lot of policies that

are coming together. And all of those policies will not happen if you have Republican disunity. So I think it's very important that Republicans stay unified. The executive branch has an enormous amount of power when it comes to trade policy. That's something that one hundred years ago Congress seated to the White House. But on all this other fiscal policy, Congress has a huge role to play, and it's really important that Republicans stay unified.

Speaker 3

With these razor thin majorities we have.

Speaker 1

One of the initiatives that they need to deal with is the deficit. And I'm focused very much on the bond markets, and I'm sure you are too, as a free market Republican, and I just wonder how much conviction you really see in both camps of the Republican Party, as you just laid out, to truly combat some of the deficit concerns that we feel here at DAVAS.

Speaker 4

They're definitely definicite hawks, and Congress no toys about it. Running the various committees in charge of this, the Budget Committee, the way the means can be, definance can be. They are deficit hawks. So first of all, you can't do well on your debt servicing if you don't have don alog GDP growth outpacing your debt servicing costs. So number one, fast economic growth is paramount. That's why this deregulation is

very necessary. That's why extending tax reform is necessary. We don't want to hit the economy with a wet blanket like Biden did with the promise to higher taxes and more regulations.

Speaker 3

Really important on the debt.

Speaker 4

The only way to get the debt under control is to do in title my reform that's more of a comprehensive thing. That's what I spent most of my time in Congress working on.

Speaker 3

I think there's a way to do it.

Speaker 4

There's the most bipartisan solution that's out there right now. Are these fiscal commissions. There's a lot of talk about that. It wouldn't surprise me if Congress acted in a bipart is a way on a fiscal commission, not like Bull Simpson, which I served on, but one with teeth that requires action. That's probably the biggest talk in town right now about real debt reduction, but in reconciliation.

Speaker 3

Who knows, you could see some debt reduction occur there too.

Speaker 1

We've already heard though from this administration, they're not going to cut Social Security, They're not going to cut Medicare, They're not going to cut any of those titlements that they really want to cut. And I just wonder what I.

Speaker 4

Would say they really want to cut way. Everybody who ran for president lately has been saying we're not touching these things.

Speaker 3

I don't agree with that. I'm a different, like I said, sim a Bread and it's going to.

Speaker 1

Hit the wall that there's going to be a real challenge to undermines some of the optimism that we're hearing here.

Speaker 4

Well, within a decade you have both the Medicare part A trust fund and the Social Career Trust Fund going bankrupt and solve it. So you have to do something about that you've got to step in front of that. By the way, you don't need to cut these programs to fix this.

Speaker 3

You can grow them a little more slowly.

Speaker 4

You can reform these programs, and you can do it in a prospective way so that you don't affect people in or near retirement, but do it for the younger generation like my ex generation.

Speaker 3

So there are good reforms.

Speaker 4

Out there that I think are politically pattable that move the needle on the debt tremendously. The question is whether or not. And by the way, if it were easy, we had already done it. I pass four budgets in the House when I Budget chair that did this, but they did nowhere in the Senate.

Speaker 3

So this is really hard to do.

Speaker 2

Which if for an extension of the tax cuts and jobs absolutely, why.

Speaker 4

Does not make sense because we want growth. If you don't do this, the kind of tax increases that are going to hit the economy first of all, immedia expensing, R and D amortization. These are very important business tax relief. But what people who aren't Americans don't necessarily see is more than two thirds of our businesses are not CEA corporations. They're passed through LLC sub sub Chapter A S corporations. They pay their taxes as individuals. There's a massive tax

increase on those businesses. The engine of job creation in America if you let those things expire. So that's really important. It's this thing we call section one N nine A. I don't want to get too deep in the details.

Speaker 3

We haven't got signed.

Speaker 4

You're gonna hit, You're gonna it's gonna be bad for the economy if you let those tax cuts expire.

Speaker 3

So you do need to extend.

Speaker 2

Soluston said the same thing. They said, it could be an economic climacy. Could you describe that colimacy for us?

Speaker 4

Just how about I'd say about eighty percent of small businesses would have a massive tax increase, over twenty percent tax increase. And oh, by the way, you'll put them at a massive competitive disadvantage against corporations, huge job dislocation. And most of our jobs come from small and medium businesses. You cannot hit those with a big tax increase.

Speaker 2

You know, that's difficult to re import together these bills. That's only one piece of the tax fIF Yeah, I wrote the last one.

Speaker 4

On nin you're it was I had a twenty two seat margin easier to play with the.

Speaker 2

Twenty and a half dozen mondins this time around. How difficult is it going to base it to an I think above and beyond just extending.

Speaker 3

This is why I.

Speaker 4

Say Republicans need to stay unified, because all of us agree on this fiscal this type of fiscal policy. We may have difference agreements on trade, we don't have disagreements on this really important that Republican factionalism doesn't occur. They stay unified and get this done. The country's counting on us. Donald Trump promised it, and one of the reasons why people are so optimistic is because they believe this is going to happen.

Speaker 3

At Tanao, we.

Speaker 4

Pulled seven hundred CEOs ten trillion dollars a wealth and it's a thirty two point swing in optimism from last year to this year.

Speaker 2

We've seen it on the USC Konda can tie fake iron. We hear it repeatedly every single ape that optimism has.

Speaker 4

To be translated into policy for it to be realized, and that means past this bill.

Speaker 3

Speak to Ron, Thank you, sir,

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