Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Chevron lining up a small fleet of ships sailing to Venezuela as the company emerges as the only exporter of the country's oil following Maduro's aster. This as the White House plans to meet with oil industry executives. Joining us now and please to say we have Patrick Duddy. He is a visiting senior lecturer at Duke University and the former US Ambassador to Venezuela for both President Bush and
President Obama. Ambassador, fantastic to have you with us. I want to back up a little bit and just talk about what unfolded over the weekend. We know that over the past several months, the US military has really ramped up his presence in the region. But even with that in mind, we're you surprised at all to see this weekend raid and the ouster of Nicholas Maduro.
No I was not it had it was evident for some time that the force which had been deployed to the Southern Caribbean was larger than what might have been necessary if the only mission had been to blow up drug boats. Additionally, after the the forces in the Caribbean struck that port facility the other day, a couple of days before the apprehension of Nicholas Maduro and his wife.
It was my view that the that signaled to really the entire region, and it should have signaled to the to the Maduro regime that the President Trump was not joking. This was not a bluff, and in striking the port he had, he, that is to say, President to Trump had made clear his willingness to go further.
Yes, certainly, now with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that this was not a bluff on the part of President Trump. And I would love to hear your thoughts on what the motivation is here. What is the US trying to accomplish. Is this about pursuing a regime change in Venezuela, Is this about drug trafficking? Or is it as simple as oil? What do you make of it?
Well, I think it's a combination of almost all of those factors. What I would suggest is that it is important to understand the nature of the regime. The Trump administration has said repeatedly this is not a legitimate government, and that is actually accurate. The government, the Maduro regime was not recognized as legitimate by most of the democratic
nations in the world. They walked away from the most recent electoral exercise, which they lost overwhelmingly, and as their legitimacy evaporated, the regime became increasingly increasingly authoritarian and repressive. This resulted in, among other things, eight million refugees. Eight million Venezuelan has fled their country. Yeah, an enormous outflow, and not surprisingly, as their illicit economy tanked, illicit activity spiked and that means drug trafficking.
Yeah.
I am curious, though, Ambassador, as to what the solution is, because when we talk about Venezuela's problems, this is not something recent when you were in advising presidents back in the day. I think Chavez was on a second go round as leader of this country. I can't remember time in my lifetime, at least not as an adult, where
we've seen a viable, stable economic machine in Venezuela. Do you have any hope or faith that it will be different this time with whatever changes are afoot down the pipe.
Well, I would say hope, but perhaps not faith. The You know, when President Chammas was elected in nineteen ninety eight, Venezuela was producing around three million barrels on the day. Today it is barely and perhaps not even producing a million barrels today. Between twenty thirteen and twenty twenty three, the economy contracted more than seventy percent. Some argue as much as seventy five percent. This has caused effectively chaos
on the ground. And I think what we're seeing with the Trump administration's approach is a determination to revive what has always been the heart and soul of the Venezuelan economy, which is the oil sector. And that sector is dilapidated and has been incompetently managed, and there has been an
enormous outflow of petroleum professionals. In fact, many of something like eighteen thousand of them were fired by President Chamas after a strike in I believe it was two thousand and two, and then dismissed the virtually the entire workforce in two thousand and three. So I think about the Trump administration has decided is that they can If they can build back the oil sector, it will not only be good for Venezuela, it will be good for us,
so it will be good for the region. This is going to require a measure of social stability in Venezuela. And that's the challenge of the moment. After all, Maduro his wife are gone, but the regime is still in Playee.
Well, that's what I'm curious about. I mean, I mean, why should we have faith that that stability will come if the people that Trump himself, the Trump administration itself is said we're comfortable with, are basically the people who are working under Maduro. Do we have any sense that their allegiances would somehow shift away from Maduro and to US policy.
I don't think their allegiances are going to shift, And in particular, Dulcia Rodriguez sworn in I think yesterday as interim president was a part of Maduro's inner circle. What I think is going on is the Trump administration is decided to work with some of those people who are
still in positions of authority to manage a transition. What I believe is the case is that the Trump administration wishes to avoid the kind of mistakes that we and others committed in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussin. Central to that was the US went in and essentially dismissed the entire political class as well as all of the military, and what followed was chaos and something looked awfully like sivil.
All right, Patrick, we have to leave it there. And that's a great point we should point out. Just about an hour ago we had caught up with Richard hass of course, who was very instrumental in the march into Iraq and Afghanistan. We'll catch up with you again soon, i'm sure, Ambassador Patrick Duddy, their former US ambassador to Venezuela.