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Well, let's bring you more now on the conflict in the Middle East, with the attacks now and their seventh day around stepping up strikes as we were hearing on countries across the Gulf, with the number of alerts in the region being reported this morning. Let's discuss now with Kathy Ashton, who is the EU's first High Representative and Foreign Affairs from twenty nine to twenty fourteen and a key negotiator of the previous Around nuclear deal known as
the JCPOA. Kathy Ashen, Good morning, Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. What is your reading of the situation in the Middle East today? Do you see any path to de escalation from where we are now?
Well, I think there are a couple of things. First of all, it's important that we try and find out what exactly President Trump's ambition is for how this will end, because on the one hand, there's a degrading of Iran's potential nuclear program and of course the removal of ballistic missiles and launches and so on, preventing around from playing any significant role in the region or with its proxies.
And on the other hand, you have the prospect of some kind of regime change, which is a much longer process, as we know from other countries and other experiences, and where you're trying to look for people who can lead the country in a different direction, and that so far has proved i think, quite elusive for President Trump, despite him saying he wants to be involved in choosing that person, despite them talking about a variety of different people, some
of whom have been killed, some of whom don't seem to be appearing on the horizon. So there is a sort of bigger question about what is the objective when it comes to Iran. And then of course there is a question of what Tehran is trying to do by
sending missiles all over the Gulf. Is it about trying to send warning signals, is it specifically about targeting US military facilities, or as we've seen, is it broader And are they trying to say to countries, You've got to tell the Americans and Israelis to cut back on this because for your own safety.
Well, what should we make of the potential successes to the late Ayatollah? Trump says that his second oldest son is unacceptable.
Well, that's right, and this is what it gets kind of interesting, if I can use that word in terms of what the Americans want to achieve. There's been a number of names sort of being thrown around. Ali Lara johanis one, the Ayatollah's second son is as you say another. If these are unacceptable people, well where are the acceptable people that the problem in Iran has been? I think that we don't see the level of organized opposition that you would see perhaps in other countries. And that's because
they've been oppressed. It's not because people don't oppose the regime. It's because when they do, we see these massacres, we see people in prison and so on. So very simplistically, if the IRGC wanted to surrender, who would they surrender to?
Where does this with your experience in negotiating with the Uranians in the past as well? Is there any path from here that can lead back to diplomacy on the nuclear issue? Or is the US was this US action inevitable to try and bring an end to any prospective nuclear programming Iran?
Well, this is the chosen method, if you like. When we had the JCP away, we were confident that he Ran could not build a nuclear weapon. Within at least twelve months of US engaging with him. In other words, that we would have at least a twelve month window in which we could take military action, we could put pressure on them, and so on. We had thousands of cameras, hundreds of monitors on site who could see exactly what was going on. That gave a certainty and a security.
We hoped to the world that we knew what was happening there. President Trump did not agree with that approach, and he has always taken the view that this was about a kind of wind loose, that the Iranians had to give up everything completely in order to achieve what he wanted. So it's hard to see how we get back. Excuse me to diploma, see in the traditional sense, having said that all conflicts end with people sitting around a table, even if they are the complete loser, there is a
conversation to be had about what happens next. So at some point people somewhere will have to sit down and start talking.
Before we get there, Kathy has President Trump made a strategic error by alienating his European allies, many of whom are now refusing to allow US forces to use their bases well.
I think this is a really interesting question because what we've seen has been a breadth and spread of support or not support from across Europe. You've had Chancellor Mertz, who seems to be the most forward leaning in some ways in support of the American action. You've had the Prime Minister who under international law believed that the beginning of this was inappropriate, but was willing to help coursing defense of people in the Gulf. And then you've got
the Spanish Prime Minister who said absolutely not. And they probably represent the classic European mix of feeling and thinking about this. But at some point the Europeans will have to and will come together. Russels is an extraordinary place where in the end you do get a kind of consensus. It may not be what everybody wants all the time, but it's a sort of way of trying to come
together and actually decide what they're going to do. But for them too, they'll be very conscious of what this is meaning for our attention span on Ukraine and what's happening, because we're thinking about rightly the Gulf, but we're not thinking about Ukraine and the implications for missiles and for the ability to be able to support and arm Ukraine effectively in the future.
Is it strategic then for European countries to rally behind the American efforts to try and, as you say, refocus attention on Ukraine and supporting that country.
Well, I think there'll be a number of things. I think first of all, they'll be looking to try and support the Americans when it comes to helping out with the countries of the Gulf that are under attack. So I think you will start to see a bit more forward leaning on that because that's important to Europeans, not
these because they're Europeans living all over the Gulf. I think secondly, there'll be a desire to keep the relationship with the United States in good shape as far as they possibly can, especially when it comes to support for Ukraine. But also there's a big economic question underneath all of this, which is about energy prices and about the economies across Europe.
And of course President Trump is willing to use tariffs as a method to try and bring people to his way of thinking, or at least to say he's not happy with the decisions that they've made.
Kathy, we really appreciate you coming in to talk to US today. Kathy Ashton there, who was the EU's first High representative on Foreign affairs from twenty nine to twenty fourteen and a key negotiator of the previous Iran nuclear deal. Thank you so much