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So if I was to do a panel, let's say some fancy place like Davos right now, they would say, mister Keene, who would you like to have in your panel? And I would say Ezra Prisade of Cornell and Ian Bremer of Tulane, and Stanford Bremmer and Prosad would be lights out. The Doom Loop is Azra Prisad's new book with really interesting discussions of stability, and Ian Bremer owns the high ground on this with every nation for itself, the j curve, and of course us versus them. Doctor
Bremer joins us from Eurasia a group. I look at the Doom Loop from prisad Ian and the heart of the matter is we are in some form of stability moving to instability. Is that how you see it? There's instab out there. Yeah.
I like his book a lot. He's more of an economist. I'm a political scientist, so I'm focusing on the geopolitics specifically, and I think it's cyclical. So I see this as a bust cycle because the balance of power is no longer aligned with the institutions, the architecture, the policies or the values, and that's particularly playing out with the Americans, the most powerful country, stepping back from their own historic leadership.
So I mean, the good news is that that's very unlikely to get you the so called Throughcinity's trap, a World War III. Historically, usually when you have a move to instability in geopolitics, it's because the major power is in decline and trying to hold on to its old system. The rising power wants to create a new one. That's not what's happening here. The United States is still the
most powerful country. It's just unilaterally saying it doesn't want to be in charge of collective security or free trade, or promotion of democracy or rule of law. So it's causing a lot of instability, but it's not causing global conflict.
In your notes, you suggest that these countries historically allies, and maybe if it's posed of the United States, they are not decoupling from the US, but they're de risking. How are they doing that.
They're primarily doing it economically, And the reason it's mostly economic is because the global economy today is increasingly multipolar, while the global security environment is still dominated by the United States. So the reality is that even if you don't trust or rely on the United States as a security ally, you don't have many good options, and it will take you a very long time. Even for the
Europeans who see this as an existential need. Yes they're spending a lot of money on Ukraine, but they're buying American weapons. Yes, they're stepping up their own security, but they know, as Mark Ruta, the Secretary General of NATO said in the last few days, how essential the Americans still are for the foreseeable future. Where when you think
of the global economy, there are options. I mean, even Canada, which is so incredibly dependent on the United States, has the ability to diversify more effectively with the Europeans, with the Chinese, with others. And that's particularly true India, for example.
The United States pushes India hard, despite the relationship that Trump and Mody have, and Modi takes his time in doing a deal with the Americans and instead steps up his relations with the EU and with the Australians and stabilizes with China and the rest.
So that.
Effort that we are seeing to hedge is most happening in diversifying away from US. Trade from US capital, and you know, those things, once they happen, they do have much more long term implications.
Does does this America first agenda of this second Trump administration? To what degree do you think it will empower China empower Russia.
I don't think it's empowering Russia at all. I do think it is empowering China. Russia's dug its own grave. In fact, they've dug hundreds of thousands of them over the last four years of the war in Ukraine. They are weaker as a consequence. Their economy is weaker, their security environment is weaker, their diplomacy is weaker. They're basically becoming, you know, a a second rate state that has to
has to follow the lead of China. And that's not where Putin wants to be, clearly where China is actually in so any ways, taking advantage of the United States being seen as unreliable. In part that is directly reaching out to countries to improve their bilateral relations, and in part it's stepping up China's role in these old institutions that the Americans don't value much anymore. So you will have noticed the Americans pulled out of the World Health Organization.
They convinced Argentina to join them. Nobody else did. China immediately stepped up how much money they were giving to the WHO to five hundred million dollars. Why would they do that because if America's out, they get to be number one in influence. When Trump announced the Board of Peace, not just in terms of Gaza coordination, but as potentially a replacement to many of the of the operating principles that the United Nations has, the Chinese immediately said, we don't want to join that.
In the same thing in the time we got left Ian, I think the question, I'm getting this all the time, and I'm not informed like you as simple as I can. What do you perceive post Trump? Do we return to what Paul and I knew years ago? Do we go to some form of a mended new What do you perceive in say, twenty twenty eight, two thousand and thirty.
Well, if Trump is followed by a much more predictable and reliable leader in the eyes of allies, that I think you will be able to normalize those relations from a very different base. In other words, permanent damage will have been done, diversification efforts will be in place. The Americans won't be leading the world the way they used to,
but you won't see the continued trajectory towards chaos. If, on the other hand, Trump is replaced by a leader that is seen as not only more unilateralists, but also just as un rictable right and just as willing to use American power against allies and adversaries alike, then of course that trajectory will continue to deteriorate.
We don't care. And the only reason you're on today is pitchers and catchers with Red Sox down at Fort Myers Jet Blue Park, you were behind home played. I saw for the playoffs last year. What an improvement on the Red Sox, Doctor Bremer. Can they do it again and improve further?
Well, they can't do worse than the Patriots did this Sunday one of the worst games I've ever seen. And but I you know, you got to be hopeful for my Red Sox. I've got to be one of the only Red Sox out there that's also capable of rooting for the Yankees when I see them in New York. It's a weird it's a weird position to be in.
It's a weird's there's a mental health issue the probably Adam Bremer, thank you so much. Regards to moose as well.