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We are fair and balanced and as we had an appalling Yankees moment there over.
The last ten minutes.
Our next guest on short note, we are honored to have with us Ian Bremer. Of course, he has changed the discussion of international relations at worldwide.
We're going to have an.
Extended conversation here for all of you across the nation.
Good morning internationally on.
The Pacific rim on YouTube, and your evening as well. Ian. The charm of a Bremmer is a Red Sox fan is not the leafy burbs of Weston or Wellesley. It is the woodies and the prickies of Chelsea Housing. Growing up tough in Boston. What was it like being a Red Sox fan years ago under the Chelsea Housing Authority?
Well, I mean going to see the Socks play at the bleachers was one of the affordable, incredible pleasures of being a kid. My grandpa used to take me, would take the bus into the city. It was about a thirty minute hike and you could walk over to Fenway from Haymarket. Haymarket, as we used to say, those were great days. And I was at the game last night. I really enjoyed. It was a fantastic baseball.
Were you in the bleachers last night? Are you kidding?
I was looking at the bleachers last night. I was expressing a level of empathy.
Ian. Let's talk about the international relations of a fractured America. What is the state of our State Department right now?
Well, the State Department, I mean, you know, at least you have someone who's quite capable that's actually running it. Having said that, USAID has been eviscerated, as you know, And the biggest concern among the professional diplomats I know, both in office now and also those that have left, is that countries around the world no longer believe the United States is reliable as an ally, that America's ward is no longer something that you want to count on.
The US is incredibly powerful, it's not in decline, but that what the US will do for you is not necessarily what it will say. And that's true on trade, it's true on collective security. It's true on the treatment of your citizens living in the United States or traveling to the United States.
These things can.
Change on a dime on the whims of the president and his top advisors.
And that worries these countries a great deal.
That level of disengagement Ian, do you think that is reflective of this Republican Party When you.
Say disengagement, I'm sorry, what do you mean by that?
No, just the America first, a type of feeling within the Trump administration.
I think the Republican Party is completely loyal to Trump, and it doesn't really matter if a lot of them feel differently about his doing a deal with China on the Age twenty chips or coming to terms on TikTok. It doesn't really matter if he says Ukraine's not that important because it's an ocean away. Of course, a lot of Republicans historically disagree with that, They disagree with Trump opposing free trade, but the population has changed.
So, first of.
All, there are a lot of people that really oppose a lot of neocons in the Republican Party that led to very expensive, very deadly failed wars, And there are a lot of traditional free trade Republicans that no longer have the support of the population in pushing for globalization and for taking tariffs down. We're in a radically different environment, right We have tariffs at one hundred level, historic highs
one hundred year highs. And we also have a president that's doing his damnest to reduce American security guarantees and commitments to other countries around the world, even making big questions about whether the US would stand up for Taiwan, for example, long term. So I mean clearly a lot of Republicans quietly uncomfortable with that.
It's so many ways to go, her Ian Bremer with us for an extended conversation with Eurasia Group.
Ian, what people want to know? When's the next book out?
Give me a date sometime next year?
Sometime next year. Like, that's good enough. Ian, I want to talk about Gaza. I want you to triangulate it with Qatar, the president's relationship there, maybe with this desire to win a peace prize and all that. How should our listeners and viewers synthesize the cacophony of Gaza. I'm looking at a video in the Washington Post this morning, Greta Thunberg and others being the Israelis have taken over flotilla. Whatever.
How does Ian Bremer translate the horror of Gaza through the American prism?
The two combatants.
Have very little consequence for continuing to engage in the fight. It's been extremely hard to convince Israel that they should limit the warfare on the ground in Gaza or against the Axis of Resistance more broadly, because there have been no consequences for them doing so, and of course, because they're militarily and technologically dominant in the entire region.
It's been extremely.
Difficult to convince Hamas that they have to actually let the hostages go, which was Trump's only applause line in his fifty five minute speech at the UN Nations General Assembly last week. Because they're terrorists, because there are a bunch of dead enders, and because they recognize that they face assassination kind of either way. And look, it's hard to put yourself in the position of what would create
rationality among leadership of Hamas. But they're putting their own people at risk every day, and they have for years now.
So in that regard, it's hard.
To maneuver much, though I think that there has been success in putting a few small constraints on Israeli behavior. Trump had been indifferent to Israeli annexation of the West Bank, and he came out last week and said that they will not do that. On the back of the UAE, saying that they would leave the Abraham Accords if the Israelis proceeded.
Trump had been actively promoting the.
Idea of removing Palestinians from Gaza. In fact, he said as much when he was on stage with the King of Jordan a few months ago, and he's now shifted away from that to a plan that has been approved by the golf Arabs and by the Israeli Prime Minister that says that the Palestinians aren't going to be forced to leave that rather, they're going to be able to stay in Gaza.
And so, I mean, look, it's not stopping the war.
And as long as Hamas refuses to release the hostages, I don't expect the war to end, even though I think it would be much better for Israel and everyone else involved if they would stop.
But I do think that we have a few guardrails, however limited today that we didn't have a week ago.
Ian Let's switch gears to another hot spot, which would be Ukraine. Is there any reason to believe that there is some type of peace process possible in the near intermediate term here?
I would say it's more likely that the completely stalled offensive that Russia has had. It's been, you know, this grinding, virtually no territory being taken, mass of casualties, particularly in terms of the Russian soldiers.
Over a million casualties.
In this war for Russia so far in three and a half years. It's a staggering number. It's hard to even imagine what that means for society, but Putin doesn't care. It's hard to imagine that that's going to continue the way it has for the next six to twelve months, in part because it's going to be very difficult for Ukraine to continue to defend their territory and field the soldiers to do so over the coming year.
But also in part because Trump is angry about this.
He thought that he was going to leverage his relationship with Hut. However it existed into a ceasefire. He made Putin a lot of offers, ending sanctions and the like, and Putin said no, thank you, and has embarrassed Trump, has angered Trump, and Trump Trump is bringing it up. He never brings up his failures. He forgets about them. It's one of his political skills. Not on Russia, and instead he's talking about providing extended range missiles to Ukraine
that could take out Russian energy capability. And he's privately pushing the Hungarians, the Turks, the Indians saying, you know, I want you to end your purchasing of Russian oil. He wasn't willing to do that a month ago.
So that there is.
Real movement here from President Trump himself to try to not just offer putin a carrot ineffectually, but also include some stick.
Doctor Remer, let's finish up with this.
We had a riveting conversation with Edmiral Mullin at the Bloomberg Global Forum the other day.
He was just on the South China Sea.
Extraordinary the submarine secrets there, the.
In the island off China.
I think Americans Ian are ignorant that Taiwan isn't one monolithic island. Explain to us the strategic realities for Americans of Kimman and Matsu Islands just off the coast of China. What are the immediate risks to those frontline islands in Taiwan.
Well, of course, China's ability if they wanted to engage in warfare with less consequence, taking those over or blockading those much easier, right and with very little ability for the Americans to respond or its Asian allies to respond militarily.
But nobody really believes near turn that's going.
To happen, in part because the United States is oriented to work with China on Taiwan. Look, Trump and chiesiin Ping had a phone call much anticipated last Friday, and the single thing that Trump most wanted, which he got, was a nod from Xijinping on the US taking over TikTok with political loyalists installed in charge of it. And
that's the thing that matters most to Trump. It allows him to undermine the free media, control the information space, and better ensure that he and his and his advisors can control twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight. What the Chinese want is for Trump to back away and say that they oppose independence for Taiwan as Bush had President Bush had once before, and I think that Trump is oriented to provide that. Frankly, so, we're not heading
towards escalation right now with the Chinese. We're actually heading towards both sides getting something that really matters to the individual leaders.
You mentioned.
It was a fine one final question, I got eight ways to go here folks with Ian Bremer are always the case. You mentioned the collapse of US AID USAID. I've got family members abroad that say it's been devastating for Africa. Explain right now at the beginning of this fourth quarter the impact of the lack of US AID.
The United States is the most powerful country in the world's the strongest economy by far, and the US has historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid to other countries and to the people in those countries that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're vulnerable to HIV AIDS, whether they're starving, whether they're facing
forced migration. The US has done that directly. It's also led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support for the United Nations and the organizations that it stands up, like the World Food Program, for example. The United States has decided that those things should no longer be priorities. That America first means that these other countries should have to make their own way, they should have to pay for themselves.
Now, the Chinese see this is a great opportunity.
In the same way that when the Americans cut back on visas, the Chinese immediately say we're going to make it easier for talented people to they won't be as attractive in terms of their aid.
But if they are the lead power, I mean they made.
Up their dues, many of which were in arrears at the UN the Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay, we'll pay some of ours now, so that they can put forward that they're the ones that are more accountable.
Look, if you think that only American hard.
Power matters, and maybe in the short term that's true, then and you don't care very much about non Americans and don't think that they are as deserving or that we should take care of any of them, we don't have accountability, then.
It doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and I think it's a mistake long term.
And thank you so much doctor Bremmer, with you raise your group, and we thank him for his years
Of support of what we do with surveillance