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Ukraine's president of Blosmore Zelenski says he expects a decision this week by the European Union on a new sanctions package on Russia. The measures the nineteenth package would be expected to focus on entities in third countries like China and India, but the role of the United States will be key to make the measures work. Joining us now to discuss Daniel Tanabam, who is global anti financial crime
practice leader at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman. Daniel, great to see us with the with us in the Brussels Radio studio. You're here in the city for an Atlantic Council event that's happening later this morning, with among others, the EU sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan. So we appreciate having your perspective this morning. We're talking about this nineteenth package
of sanctions by the EU on Russia. Is there much more pressure that can be exerted by the European Union at this stage on Russia and its economy?
There is, Stephen, and I think it's important to note enforcement is a key element of any saying regime. I say this is an alarm of the US government. Sanctions agency enforcement has largely been lacking, not just from Europe, but from the US and UK as it relates to all of the earlier sanctions. There's more sanctions that can be levied on third countries like India and China. Although I do think there's a difference of view between the
US and the U on tariffing versus sanctions. My president seems to have fallen off on sanctions as of Leyden likes tariffs because they generate revenue, supposedly.
In terms of whether there is willingness in the Trump administration, I mean, it's interesting that you don't think that there's been enough follow through in Europe despite the concerns that obviously the EU and the UK have around Russia. Is there willingness?
Do you think?
Is there anything changing in the Trump administration? It all does seem to depend on President Trump's attitude of Vladimir Putin.
Sadly it does, and I think it's important to note the President has imposed absolutely zero new soundctions on Russia since he's taken office. There have been sanctions on the International Criminal Court, there have been sanctions on a Brazilian judge, and the guy's wife. There have been no sanctions on Russia in nine months, and now you have a new strategy on secondary tariffs, which didn't really exist before someone
uttered it. I think in April or May. It is a real question of what the president wants to do. He's had a sanctions package drawn up on the shadow fleet for months, he has not signed.
It yet, so what should be reached into that.
I think the argument that's been made is that sanctions will be an impediment to a negotiation with Russia. Well, then what are the missiles that keep being launched into Ukraine as it relates to Russia as a continued aggression increasing only since the Alaska summit. I think there is a real question of why this president will not impose sanctions and the Senate will not impose them without the president's go ahead either.
Where does that leave the European Union and all of this. We've got you leaders gathering in copah Hagen in a couple of days. What do they do if they can't seem to get the support of action that's needed out of Washington.
I think the only positive I can glean out of the last few weeks is David O'Sullivan, who I'm speaking with in a few hours, was in Washington with a
delegation from the EU. I think about two weeks ago was the first real meaningful discussion as I understand that the US and Europeans have had on Russia sanctions, but it means that the EU will continue to need to be out in front and it really does need to educate the block in how to effectively enforce and police these sanctions as a meaningful reminder for companies who would be on the wrong side of this regime.
Having said that, if you look at the date on Russia's economy, I mean there are fewer petro dollars expected by the Russian government and obviously their war spending is increasing, so it is having some impact in terms of what Moscow is managing together.
There's no doubt it's having an impact. However, the trade, especially for oil between India, China and Russia is not insignificant, and those countries have not really felt the pressure to make a choice. Now China the US kind of puts aside. India is the one where the US is attempted to exert pressure over the last few months because it isn't focused as much on a trade deal like it is
with China. But until you begin to get India and China to kick their Russian oil habit, it is difficult to really disrupt the flow of funds that they're getting to finance this war in Ukraine.
Do you think that we're any way close to that? Is there any sign that the Trump administration could move towards particularly India one entity been sanctioned.
Look, there's never been a country and economy the scale of Russias that have been sanctioned, so any thought that the sanctions would so immediately impact them, we're always a
bit of a misnomer that it will take time. Even the fact that the Europeans in this nineteenth Package are willing to push up a year kicking LNG that is meaningful, But it was always going to take time to isolate and really impact the economy of this size, which I do think you are beginning to see, judging by the taxation changes you're seeing reported out of Russia.
In terms of what that means, I'm trying to understand what this means for your clients. Then if you know we're talking about the ineffectiveness, as you see it, of what the EU and what the US has done against Russia economically, How do your clients view then these sanctions efforts and how do you advise them. Surely they would be less concerned about doing business with Russia. Is that's not the case.
So most of my clients have been out of Russia for years and abandoned ship pretty quickly after the invasion. Now there's a number of European clients that are still operating in Russia because it's not illegal. There's certain business that they can do. Now should they be doing that?
That's certainly the real existential question. Without enforcement that was so famously done for sanctions of Asian related to Iran and Libya, Cuba and North Korea for years reminding companies the consequences of getting this wrong, they don't feel the pressure to make that choice either, and that is where Europe can really step up in administering and enforcing these sanctions a lot more aggressively within the block, because that stick works to make companies feel the need to make
a choice of things that could be on the border of legality.
What's the key change that needs to happen on that policy of the divisions among U countries as well, So what will be the most effective move that leaders could decide on now, Well, some of.
It's a maturity issue. I mean, European sanctions haven't been that big a deal historically until this invasion in twenty twenty two. I don't take for granted the fact that in the US we've had the Office of Foreign Assets Control, a singular agency task with administering and enforcing sanctions. There is no equivalent in Europe. There's no equivalent in any European country. The UK is the only other country that
has an equivalent. So it's a maturity of governments beginning to figure route who is on point to really enforce these sanctions, and then getting on with it, essentially,