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Joining us now after extensive travel, thrilled you? Good, fine time to start us off this morning, Daniel Day us in Singapore. How do you get back to like the golf stream always got the web bush golf stream blowblight out of technology for web bushes, Stan I just I want to look forward. What did you learn from Nvidia yesterday? That's part of the AI story of the other ten stocks.
I mean it's all about Blackwell that's fueling. I mean eleven billion that shows. I mean this is manage rejectory fifteen to twenty billion a quarter. So if you had any concerns, it's the opposite Big tech, other enterprises, they're doubling down. That's the multiplier factor cross tech. For every dollar spent on a video chip, eight ten dollars spent across to us attack.
What is your ex exis do when you look at technology develop and we'll talk to man deep sing about this at a moment, dan Ie, do you have like a timeline out on Nvidia? Do you have a terminal value on in video that's appropriate seven years?
What is it?
I think two to two twenty five to me is ultimately going to be sort of the base cases this plays out, and again you're not gonna need like the massive blowouts. They stay in this trajectory outside of some black swan and the Bears will always hold for that like they have the last decade. I think this is a four an ultimately five trillion dollars markup as it plays out. There is one red food in the world for these chips, and he's wearing a black leather jacket. His name is Jensen Dan.
Talk to us about the just catalysts for this name. You know, it's it's really unusual for Nvidia shareholders to look down at their Bloomberg screen and see year to date sucks, you know, down a couple of percent here, not to see green on the screen here. What's the next catalyst do you think for this stock?
Yeah, I think catalysts now clearly going forward, you're going to continue to focus on what Blackwell demand looks like. Right and in the video you know, they'll have their conference in March. I think that's going to be a sort of spectacle that's gonna you know, they're launching pad for Jensen Foreign video and look, and I think there was all smoke, no fire, and I just continue. And we've talked about on the show Deep Seek is bullish
for in video and big tech. It's not the opposite, despite you know many of the barrizone fire in a crowd theater.
If you're just joining us, folks at Man Deep sign will be with us in a moment. From Bloomberg Intelligence, we start with Daniel Ives of web Bush. They're head of technology. For those of you on Bloomberg Radio, it is critical to point out Ives with the Penn State Knitney Lions merch in the background this morning at Penn's State, Dan Eyes, they're going to have to do a rebuy
of Apple technology. We have Mark Germi in four or five, six days ago and we started with a chip and you know it's like Man Deep sing talk and Dan and I's German was riveting about the technological veracity of the Apple story. Do you agree?
Oh?
I think the best is yet to come because I did, and German's talked about it as well. But the consumer AI revolution comes from Coupertino. They're a toll collector. China app us APP Australia doesn't matter. In other words, it's about that. In stallwas I continue to think that is going to incrementally add sixty seventy dollars per share the AI story, the incremental services, and that doesn't include a new form factor chip and just more and more control of their ecosystem.
Dan, how did the company kind of position the deep seek issue as a competitor out there in the marketplace?
I think actually someone of the rest of the big ten. It's actually it's a positive the models. The more innovative the models get, the cheaper they get, the more use case, the more GPU capacity. In other words, like that's why like that because everyone here and you guys talk about all the time, like everyone's waiting for where's the cracks
in the armor smoke? Is this the AI bubble? But we've talked about this two trillion of cap backs next three years, Big Tech span three hundred and thirty billion this year. You can find cracks, but you're not going to find it here. And I think that's what you saw last night in terms of really the demand there was no I thought Gens was actually more bullish than even what he was a few months ago.
Daniel, I thank you so much. Get some sleep too early traveling worldwide with US with wet Bush well rested. Mandeep Singh joins us right now, senior technology analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. The distinction here man deep designs is doing by old cell trying to make money. You're looking at the industry holistically. If I'm such in a della and I'm listening in Vidia yesterday, what did Microsoft learn from the the Nvidia conference call?
Yeah, look, I think Dan mentioned about black Vell ramping up nicely. Contributed eleven billion dollars in the quarter, So that means that video is really ramping up nicely with its new architecture. In fact, they laid out the plan for black Belt Ultra, so they're moving very fast when it comes to the advances with the chips. So one I would say, you know, data point that didn't do very well was on the networking side, so they had
a second sequential decline in networking revenue. And if I try to tie that in, you know with the size of clusters. Again, in AI, there are these two main concepts, training versus inferencing. Training is driven by the size of clusters, and then if you have a bigger cluster, you have to network it in a way where it's coher and then you know you could use it for your training purposes.
So the fact that in Vidia's networking revenue decline sequentially, again it's off a very strong base, it tells you that there may be a slight pause when it comes to building these bigger clusters and Nvidio is the most exposed to that you know trend. So from that perspective, I think you could ask yourself given their valuation, I mean, clearly a lot is baked in in terms of growth and the outer years is what everyone is worried about. Can Nvidia sustain this momentum in you know, the outer
years twenty twenty seven, twenty eight and beyond. And I don't think we got an answer last night in terms of how this could drive it. And the other data point I would call is the China sales. I mean it's half of where it was before they export controls, and their guide doesn't bake in the fact that if tariffs go into effect then it would be a much bigger hit on the roast margin, which actually fell three hundred paces on.
So, following up on that, mat Man Deep, how did Gensi Zwang kind of characterize the whle tariff environment, that trade environment between China and the West.
Yeah, he didn't explain much. Neither did the CFO in terms of what could go wrong. I mean, as of now, what they said was China sales is half of before the export controls went into effect under Biden. And look, if they tightened the export controls, which is a very likely scenario given what we have heard from the administration, then China sales could go to zero by the end
of a year. And when you think about upside, I mean, given Nvidia has said this trend of beat and races, which they did last night as well, you have to ask to yourself where will that upside come from. If China sales, which was as big as you know, twenty percent of the overall sales at one point, now it's much smaller around ten percent. Will will that have an impact in terms of you know, the BDA and a restaurant.
Joining us on your commuter crass nation. Mandeep Singh with us with Bloomberg Intelligence on your technology holdings