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So we've got key economic data here joining us from Trinity, the PhD in economics, Colin, how would you like to.
Chime in, sir on US economic data and we avoid the US is at a very instant juncture. You obviously have an increase in inflation pressures, the signs of the labor market is weakening. So this is a uncomfortable moment for policymakers.
I suspect we welcome you from Allied Irish Bank.
Colunt Hunt with us here and of course with all of his Trinity Economics. Let's first identify AIB right now, this is safe to say you're owned by the Irish government.
How do you answer that question? We were owned by the Irish government. The Irish government came to our rescue post the GFC and for the period of about fifteen years, the Irish government had a presence on our share register and in June just gone, we marked the Irish government's exit.
And again the organization is one hundred percent privately owned and in fact, one of the reasons that I'm here this week with the Barclay's Financials conference yesterday and meeting a lot of our investors, most of our very significant investors are based here in the United States, so this.
Is very important. We'd like to have some news here. Jennifer Dugan's waiting in Dublin for this. Can we suggest that there would be some form of public offering of shares of Allied Irish Bank in the coming weeks?
Quarters? Can you make an announcement today.
That there's certainly no announcement to be made because we are one We're one hundred percent free floating at this stage. So the government has exited the register. They came to our rescue with about twenty almost twenty one billion euro. We repaid that and now we are one hundred percent privately owned.
This started well, it started very well, doctor.
How do you give us some perspective ons of the appetite for cross border transactions at this point in time? So here we're living this day in day out, the kind of ambiguity or uncertainty about trade policy and andomic policy more broadly, What do companies domiciled outside of the United States think of this environment and how's that affecting business as.
You see it?
Well, I suppose the environment we had a period of uncertainty earlier on this year, very very warmly welcomed the fact that we have come to an agreement between President Trump and President vonder Lyin which was announced in Scotland a few weeks ago. Businesses, you know, hates uncertainty. We have certainty now. Would you pick a tier level of fifteen percent? You wouldn't necessarily, but that's the reality. That's what we're dealing with, and at least the uncertainty now
has been has been eliminated. The United States is a hugely important market for Ireland, not only as a source for our exports, but also as a place where.
Irish businesses invests. So typically Irish businesses.
When they outgrow a market that is growing quite robustly but still quite small, they typically go to the UK first and then they go to the United States. So that was the path we followed.
We've been here in New.
York for fifty years this year, and we're still all the way through the crisis, we maintained and all the way through our period of government ownership, we maintained our physical presidence here.
It's a really important.
Place from us from an investment perspective, but it's also a really important country for deployment of our loan book, and of course other Irish businesses followed us as well. So you have the likes to see r H, the likes of Smurfoot, WestRock, the likes of Kerry Group, all having very significant exposures to the United States. Notwithstanding the uncertainty we had earlier this year, it's still a hugely important market and it's a hugely important provider of external capital.
How is the Irish economy doing today? When you look at the housing market, at commercial investments, what's the relative health of the Irish economy in twenty twenty five.
Colomy is doing quite well, like Irish GDP numbers. Because of the scale of the international sector in the economy can be wild and volatile, so we tend not to look at GDP. We tend to look at modified mes to demand. So this year we're talking about growth summer of the order of about two point three two point five percent in real terms, unemployment about four percent, and total employment in the state now running a two point eight million.
That sounds small, but when I was in college all those many many years ago, thirty five years ago or so, we had one million people at work. So this is an economy usherly transformed. Right and now when the best performing in Europe.
Colin hunt with us with the Allied Irish Bank, and we continue. We're commercial free with you across America, in Ireland and around the world. Here is through this important economic report in fourteen minutes ed Ludlow's schedule to be with us. Here in a bit on the important Apple meetings.
I was talking with Olivia Fletcher. She calls me up. Olivia calls Okay, She goes, did I wake you? It's three am. I'm like, Olivia tiny hey, Colin, I got like.
An hour conversation with you, and I think frankly President Trump could have an hour conversation with you. Let's talk about this strange corporate book in Dublin, in the fact that people sophisticated like Blackstone are literally giving the keys back and office buildings.
What is the state of commercial real estate?
And as you say, a completely rebuilt Irish economy.
So the commercial real estate market had a very good run, and then once we had the turn in the official rate cycle, you began to see valuations coming.
Back quite a bit.
Of course, you had the COVID impact and the impact on commercial valuations because of working from home. That would have added it led to a drmward adjustment as well, but we have seen quite a different step back in valuation market clearing. I think the market is clearing, and certainly we're beginning to see signs of people of higher degrees of interest in the market. There are trades taking place.
The valuation adjustment seems to be behind us. If anything, I would have expected that to happen a little bit earlier because of the turn in the rate cycle. But I do think we are at the bottom.
Cycling through.
A related question, perhaps closer to home, I'm wondering what your offices are looking like. I remember reading you're trying to get employees back three days a week. Some push back to that, As I know, there was here in the States with a number of financial institutions and other businesses. Here we are at the end of the summer looking to the fall. Where does that process stand? Were you surprised by the reaction? Folks didn't want to come in three.
Days, so we didn't want to hear this question.
I will answer there's no question I don't want to hear it. I'm more than comfortable in answering to that.
Look we had.
We have a situation where we have effectively three types of work patterns inside in the organization. Our branch staff are in five days a week. Our call center staff are in five days a week, our security people in five days a week. We have some people who work from home two days a week. We currently have a group of people who work from home three days a week, and we're asking that group of our colleagues to come into the office an additional day. I think it is
really good for culture. I think it's good for learning and development. I think ultimately it is good for the business.
Question to Nicholas Booth at Stanford's wonderful giving me the best explanation of this i've heard. Are you down the road believing that you're going to compensate people who are in five days a week versus the work from home crew?
Well, the contracts that people have layout in great detail their base of employment.
We're not.
We incentivize our staff to come to work through a salary check that arives in their account on the twenty fifth of every month, just because of time.
I've got to get to this.
There's a back and forth on trade and everything within Ireland. With America and tariffs, and Trump comes down to the pharmaceutical industry.
Give us, give us.
A state that allied Irish Bank sees of yes, the weight loss drugs.
I'm not using Gurris, just cut and chisels.
Help us with the pharmaceutical dynamic that will change given decisions by President Trump.
So some of the biggest farmer names here in the United States have have had a physical presence in Ireland for over fifty years. Ireland is very attractive location for US investment. Gives you open, unfettered access to the largest single market in the world in the European Union, common law English speaking, and we have of course a cultural and perhaps fraternal affinity with one another across the Atlantic. So we have very the deep rooted US pharmaceutical companies
in Ireland. They are it's a it's a big driver of our exports to the United States.
We did go through a period of.
Grave uncertainty earlier on this year, but I'm very happy that that has been eliminated.
Now we have some certain humulation to tariffs in that sector. Thank you for getting life flat beds on air Lingus is doing. I used to be a director of aer Lingus I was. I was active one that pushed it through. I don't know who told you that, but links it's like Icelandic airways back. You brought an entourage with your older oh, with Guinness too. What is air Lingus is all of a sudden got a buzz to it?
Does when our lingas had a buzz to it going all the way back to its privatization.
Really in two thousand and six, have you got much flatbeds? Fine?
The life bat you need to fly more often with our lingus. They've had life flat beds for the best part of a decade, if not.
More, well, you know they have, but now they're really pushing it.
Colin, Right, can you come back again? Are you going to be in New York in the next five years? I hope here in the next five weeks. All right?
Led Irish Bank and we said good morning to Boston, the new Elied Irish Bank years ago. Colin, and thank you so much, Doctor Han of eled Irish Bank, their chief executive