Let's start with the price section, and then we can turn to the estimates. The price section negative it continues on the S and P five hundred. We're down across the board, down by more than one four percentage point on the SMP, on the NASDAG, down by one point six, on a RUSS or of small caves, down by one point nine. At the bond market, the rally continues for
a seventh consecutive session. Yields lower over that period by more than thirty basis points on a ten year maturity, the two year drop fifty in the month of July alone. That move continues, yields lower at the front end by three basis points four to twelve on ten to break of four percent in the last twenty four hours your ten year three ninety four. I promise you the estimates so here they are gone into payrolls. Just around a corner. One seventy five is the median estimate in our survey
on unemployment four point one percent. The question, particularly after the weakness of yesterday m manufacturing jobless claims, is this a head fake or the real deal? With us around a table, the real deal, Mohammed el errand a Queen's College, Cambridge with us for the next two hours alongside Am Marie, I'm Jonathan Farroh Mhammad. We've got to go to you headfake or the real deal?
What is this? I think the US economy is slowing faster and in a broader sense than most people anticipated, including the FED. And I think that the market is catching up to that possibility, which has become a probability.
So I've said repeatedly, I've asked repeatedly, welcome cooling or unwelcome desiation? Is this starting to sound more like the latter than the former?
It is the latter. There's no need for us to have an excessive slowing in the economy. This remains quite a robust economy. And if we do get it, it is because the FED was late in recognizing that the economy is slowing. Now there's a debate if the FED needs to cut deeper when they go in September. Do you think that they should in September go to fifty
basis points instead of twenty five? I think they go to I mean, I'm laughing because so many people now are suddenly say fifty basis points to start with the fifty basis points cut means we've made a policy mistake. And this is a FED that surprised a lot of people by having to hike four times in a row by seventy five basis points, so they were late starting, and if they cut by fifty, there will signal that
they're late starting to cut. I think it will be a mistake to cut by fifty, But the fact that some people are talking about it, I think is where the information of content is.
Right now, We've got lots of time with you this morning. You'll be with us through the seven o'clock car into the eight o'clock will go through the jobs numbers together. I just want to sit on what I think has been the biggest piece of your call, which is listen to Corporate America. It worked the first time, it seems
to be working the second time. What did you make of the tone of that news conference with Chairman Powell earlier this week where he appeared to dismiss any evidence, any signs of weakness.
So I think he was trying to strike that delicate balance first explaining why it is that in cut, but signaling that they're likely to cut, and on the whole Actually he struck it quite well. He did come across more dubbish than the statement, and you saw the market react in that way yet again, and that is his bit of coming across more dubbish. But I understand. You know, it's not like the Bank of England. The Bank of Englian is very clear. Five people voted four, four people voted against.
Yeah, you know, it's.
Very He responded by saying, oh, no, it's really good that everybody votes the same way. Actually, it's not good that everybody votes the same way because you don't get a sense of how difficult this judgment call is.
I wonder if we get a sense of that in these speeches over the next few weeks from FED officials.