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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Applecar Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Joining us now is Michael Showell. You know him from Marketfield and oscar Grows years ago.
The Eon am I pronouncing that ion ion ei e io ion.
Asset Management and on the front page of the Ion Asset Management website is my foundational thinking here where Michael Schuil divides the world into type one and type two errors. People that have heard me lectured on this, we'll hear me say the type two construct as well. Type two errors things that are not happening but are believed to be happening. What is that right now? What's not happening that we believe are happening.
You know, I don't think the Chinese economy is facing the kind of intractable problems that.
Most people do.
I think you're you're you know, at the beginning of the Chinese economy, you know, looking okay again. You know, I do think the election puts a new hurdle in place, you know, in the form of Trump and his tower policies, which you know, I think almost certainly some increase in tawis on China is going to take place. But I think China's competitive position in twenty twenty five is different
to its competitive position in twenty eighteen. It's export industries are now starting to dominate products which are crucial to both for corporate and personal sector in.
The US and in Europe.
It's not going to be quite as easy to shot him out of export market.
So your claim is in commodities, we've had a long term commodity collapsed. You and Russia Sarma lead the study of this. Can we go long commodities because we underestimate China's potential?
I think commodity prices, you know, the industrial medals are too low today. You know, I think that you're at the beginnings of the recovery. It's it's very, very noisy. I think that the trading around big set pieces such as this morning's announcement of stimulus is excessive, so you get money rushing in ahead and rushing out because the headline number isn't exactly what people want to see. But I look, I think this is a I think this
is a process. I think the the you know, g is is in a position somewhat analogous to Drahi in twenty eleven twelve, or the US FED in two thousand and late two thousand and eight through late two thousand and nine, maybe even Jack on whole twenty ten, which is he's in the middle of a process where he tries to rebuild domestic confidence and international confidence in his country. And you know, my gut saw that he'll get that done eventually, but it'll be a noisy and bloody process.
About that process. So we're at a moment where we're kind of looking back to twenty sixteen to twenty twenty and trying to recall what we've suppressed or forgotten about all of it unfolded. How is that happening in Beijing?
In other words, what template do they have for how they responded to or engaged with the Salvos from the US in the in the trade war, and so what are they doing to prepare for whatever might come here if we get these sixty percent here, whatever whatever comes from this new administration, How did they position themselves for it and keep up that effort to bolster confidence and strengthen the economy domestically.
They're in China, you know.
I think that the tawers really came in place in twenty eighteen, but they were in response China's completely unreasonable mercantilists trade you know, trade policies themselves. So I'm certainly of a belief that the Chinese, you know, started this, started this battle. I think the difference this time is it really can't come as a surprise. I think they were surprised in twenty eighteen. Trump didn't run on a
pro tariff policy in twenty sixteen. It was something which developed as he came to understand what what China's competitive trade positions had been. Look, what can they do? I think one thing they have done is is made their industrial policy more competitive in terms of making making unique products that the West either can't make anything like as cheaply or can't make or or can't make can't make period. The other thing, the other level they have, if they
want to use it, is currency. I do think you're going to see a managed arm devaluation of one probably between now and early early next year.
So you go to a resilient, strong dollar, even though President elect Trump will want week dollar.
I think dollar one, not necessarily dollar, euro dollar, you know, dollar Stirling. But I think that the one of around seven is you know, it's it's it's strong against the dollar. You know, it could be seven thirty, seven, forty.
You mentioned mert list.
Do you perceive after the campaign that President Trump is running some form of mercantilist zero sum policy.
I think his whole view of the world is transactional. I mean, he's a real estate guy, you know, he does deals and and and that's very different from a sort of classical liberal three trade I'm talking economic liberal obviously, you know economic liberal three three trade position, which is that it's not a zero sum game. It's a world in which we can cooperation leads to leads to leads to greater wealth.
You know.
I think a transactional view of the world does definitely lend itself to mechantilism. But as I say, I do believe that this. You know, the Chinese were always mechantilist. The Chinese were always willing and able to take full advantage of the generosity of the global world order.
I want to ask you about the bond market Spatch and Page was in here talking about the round trip we've seen the ten year take over the course of the week. Does that give you a framework over a sense of what the range is for the ten year and how do you trade that given what we've seen over the course of this week, and how are you just thinking about US treasuries in particular?
You know, I think the treasury market has been reasonably rational over the last sort of six to nine months, and most of its move obviously around the election. It's got its own volatility, but most of the moves we've seen, both in yields going down and yields going up, you can tie to the trend of economic data, which was you know, pretty weak compared to expectations between you know, being in late summer and has been pretty strong versus
expectations mostly you know, mostly since then. In terms of a range, I don't know, three seventy five to five seems to be you know, it's a big range, but you know, but it's not you know, but it's it's it's you know, it's it's not crazy. There's certainly, as I say, appetite for long term yields at this level. Today you see that the auction auction demand has basically
picked up. You know, I think the big question if we look ahead to the next four years, you know, is is for Trump administration going to face for limits of fiscal policy at some point? You're not there today Today, I think we've got to the point that people talk about fiscal issues in a way that they haven't for the last twenty thirty years, but where you're yet to see the sort of response to policy that you saw in the UK in September twenty twenty two.
I want to get one more thing in here as well. Denise Pellegrini in our three am meeting this morning mention SPX is now fifty percent or something of the global equity cap Michael Schule on MEG seven, are you comfortable owning or adding the positions.
In the MEG seven?
I mean, I think most people earn a hell of a lot of it. I mean, the good news is that they're still generating good news. I think that's absolutely I think that's absolutely critical. But you know, this has been a border This has been a border equity market valley, particularly since the start of summer. You know, then we've seen for most of the last for most of the
last few years. And you know, I think for people sort of chasing this equity market into the end of the year with a Trump administration, it's probably the rustle that people throw their money at.
I have to just one personal question. You are supportive of the Tel Aviv universities through their American friends. What relationship is the most constructive for the president elect with mister Netta who?
How should that be amended off of the Biden years?
You know, I think the US has been a good ally to to to to Israel. I think Biden himself as president has been a good ally. I'm not sure the entire Democratic Party has, and the popularity of that policy has certainly certainly been diminished. Look, Trump and Nettiya, who you know, kind of speak the same language. I think there's questions whether again Nettinya, who himself is going to be the prime Minister for the majority of his presidency.
Arm you know that there'll be an election where you know there'll be an election there fairly early in in in you know, in in the I would say the reign of Trump, it was a frodient slip in the presidency. In the presidency of Trump, but I look, I I think that that Trump is is sort of generally viewed as being pro Israel, subject to the limitations of his sort of inherent volatility.
Michael thinks, So Michael show with us, don't be a stranger. Let's do this again with Ion Asset Management. I put out on a Twitter and linked in the website.
It's great.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
You wonder how does Gera do it?
How can Gera be that smart?
He sat there and he would read The Almanac of American Politics to his children as they went to bed at night. The Almanac of American Politics is like a thousand pages. It's it's brilliant on every congressional district. I miss it every day and helping edit it. That was Jessica Taylor. She was a senior breakthrough officer for the Almanac of American Politics and David Guru with a cook political report. Why didn't you bring her in on what
she's publishing about Monday? I want to know where Jessica Taylor is Monday.
Well, Jessica, let's start there. It's great to speak with you. We can get Tom a copy of that almanac, would happen?
Yeah, I mean a well, start work on it next week. Actually, if the next edition is go, I'm quickly turning around doing that.
So yeah, are you going to know by Monday who controls the House? Where are we in the counting of votes in those what thirty outstanding districts across this country?
Yeah, it's unclear if we'll know by Monday. I think that we're still waiting on some of those key California districts, you know. But I think there's a very there's a very thinning path rather to get to eighteen for Democrats. That's what's becoming clear.
Annie Carney of the Time's at with a piece this morning about Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State. She complaining to Annie just about how she felt she was ignored by the mainstream Democratic Party. She had complaints about where things were going. She felt she was ignored by
the candidate herself at a Christmas party. The grievances range from kind of macro to micro, but I want to use that as kind of a pivot to ask you about how much what we've been talking about over these last few days about the Democratic Party broadly trickles down
to these races for House seats. Are the complaints universal about the degree to which the Democratic Party has left voters behind, or if we look at these races one by one, be they in Washington State or California or elsewhere, are there places where the kind of main messaging that the Democrats have had have worked.
Yeah, So just to update you, I am looking at our latest projections here at cook that we are putting out this morning, and right now, Republicans we have been winning so far two hundred and twelve, So they're just shy six seats of the two eighteen and we think probably the ceiling they can get is a five seat game, which would bring them to two twenty six, but that's still up in the air. But to ask about the individual things, I think that Democrats that managed to win,
we're ones that has strong individual brands. Are only Marie Gules camp Perez there in Washington, but Jared Golden and Maine looks like he's held on even as Trump carried that congressional district. But then you know, other Democrats that we didn't think were perhaps as in danger got swamped by sort of the tide. I think they're in Pennsylvania, which I heard you all talking about before, with Matt Cartwright and Susan Wilde in Pennsylvania losing both of those seats.
But then you know, when I'm looking at the Senate map, someone like Tammy Baldwin managed to win very narrowly Alyssa Slotkin. They both I think were able to run stronger in rural areas, not win those, but to do better. And I think that's coming with knowing the areas and that they had a unique brand sort of separate from the Democratic Party enough where they were able to convince voters to trust to vote for them even as they voted for Trump.
In the Washington Post, I believe this morning there's a fabulous article that mister Trump has power. Everyone agrees with that, but maybe less power to drive the House and Senate.
Where do you stand on that?
I mean, I'm waiting for Charlie Cook to write one of his wonderful essays about this. Is it a landslide, is it a power shift? Or do we overplay that.
Right now, well, at least I'm looking at the Senate. They have at least fifty three seats right now, and I think that's probably where it's going to land. The ap is called Pennsylvania, so they flipped West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, but those three were always the ones we expected were the most. So again Republicans left seats on the table because for the first time we've had multiple seats that split their tickets in the Trump era with it.
You know, the races in Arizona and Nevada aren't called, but it looks like those are going to vote Democratic at the Senate level, but heavily Republican at the presidential level. So this could have been much worse. That's my piece that I have out this morning in the table, and that's because Democrats were spending heavily. They managed to sort of ward off some of this. You know, in Arizona they had we here candidates, so it could have been worse.
And remember that much like you know, I think this was sort of Democrats worry if they only got to fifty two or something, which they've got one more. At least it looks like that Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski of Maine could wield overwhelming influences the moderates within the GOP. How they go about that could could matter. But you know, if Republicans have gained a few seats in the House, that you know that we saw what that four seat
majority did last time. But you know, the last time Trump had a trifecta was when he was when he came in in twenty seventeen, and they weren't able to get everything passed. And it's just two years, probably because we see typically that a president's party faces backlash in that regard. So you know, I think they're gonna have to push through tax cuts and renewing those tax cuts and anything that they want to do in this two years. But again, they have a little bit bigger majority in
the House, but it's not huge. And you know, again, if some of those Republicans in California are reelected wins that they could be sitting in still very heavily democratic area, so they might not go along with the National Party.
I get this Soud on Twitter and LinkedIn Aaron Blake writing in the Munshington Post, Trump's mandate isn't as quote powerful unquote as he suggests. Here's why, David one more to Jessica.
Jessic, I just want to ask you about that so called blue wall and where it stands today. I was in Wisconsin before the election, spent some time with Senator Baldwin and just kind of noted how she was very confident that she was a known quantity love, how everyone called her tam there was no pretense, and how people addressed her on the campaign trail, but she felt like she was kind of wandering around a terrain that had
changed markedly since the last time she ran. In the time before that, our colleague remained Bostic was in Michigan saying Michigan no longer a blue state, saying that unequivocally, how do you see that stretch of the rust belt? Has it changed permanently?
I mean, I'm not sure that we can call it the blue wall anymore when we look at sort of Trump's victories there, I think that Democrats took the wrong lessons away from twenty twenty two, when they ran better candidates and when there was abortion on the ballot. I was talking with a Michigan Democrat yesterday and they said, you know, listen, Gretchen Weimer won that by ten, but she probably got at least a four point boost because of just the abortion referendum and how terrible of a
candidate that Republican Tutor Dixon there was. So you know, again, you do need to run democrats that have those brands. That's how Tamy Baldwin was able to survive. But I don't think that we can. You know, I think there was a lot of talk going into this, like Michigan's not even on the table anymore. Look at Gretchen Weimer's win, look at that, you know, Supreme Court race in Wisconsin
a different. Things like these are moments in time, and when you have presidential turnout, it turns out differently than some of the special election, right.
Jessica, fifteen seconds? When do I get the new Almanac of American Politics?
How long does it take? You can pre order?
It's the target game.
Okay, Jessica, Thank you so much. Jessica Taylor with us a Cook Political Reports, you will publish. We'll put it out on Twitter and LinkedIn for you. Again, I can't say the subscriber cooks a subscribe to Cook Political Report. It's really and they don't overwhelm you with forty seven stories. You know, there's some weight to each story, which I think is cool.
The Almanac of American Politics will look for that.
And some weight to that as well.
Physical way, Yeah, it's.
Like it's a value line for those of you in the classic world.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
The address is Department of the Navy, twelve hundred, Pentagon, Washington, d C two zero three five h twelve hundred. Someone that knows that address, called James Travitas joins us now his public service to the nation.
The many books he has.
Put out, but today one theme for admiralster Vetas and I look, Admirroll at the Washington Post which has a definitive article on it so far, and it's a lead article. Dan Lamont, Missy Ryan and Alex Harton, and it's real simple. Pentagon anticipates major upheaval with Trump's return to the White House. They go through this, and what it comes down to is having a Pentagon with a political tone or kinge.
Have we ever been here before? No?
And I hope we don't go there. I have seen reports that the new Trump administration might consider actually taking some of the generals and admirals out of their positions and bringing new ones in. That's just not how the military has worked. It's always been an apolitical force. It swears an oath of allegiance, not to the President of the United States, not to the commander in chief, but to the Constitution. Let's hope it stays that way.
Is there a gap, as I've read a history of any nation between our officers in particularly senior officers in our enlisted forces, whether Air, Force, Army.
Or neighbor to Navy.
Do you perceive a gap now between those two political emotions within our military.
I think there's always been such a gap between officers and enlisted men and women, and it's really an educational gap. By and large, officers almost universally have at least a bachelor's degree. Tom enlisted folks typically are not college educated. The same fault lines you see in national polling between college educated and non college educated. You see those in
the military as well. Final thought, however, all of them, every single one of those volunteers, one point five million in the Department of Defense, swear that booth of allegiance to the Constitution.
Everyone.
Once I was so angry at David Gerr, I threw the leader's bookshelf at him, said shut up and read this state and go back to Sparta and Greece.
David, more than once adamal great to speak with you. And in that piece that Tom reference Richard Cohe is quoted, of course, of the Venerable Peace, War and Defense Program at the universit of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and he he says, mister Trump does not have a real understanding of civil military relations or the importance of a non partisan, non political military. Who is going to educate him on that? As you look back on the last
Trump term, it was something he clearly struggled with. Who is in a position to make it clear to him the way things have worked and indeed should work in this country.
Give you three names that come to my mind. One is Mike Pompeo, who was the director of the CIA and then was the Secretary of State West Point graduate number one in his class, he could help. Number two the last National Security advisor, former Ambassador Robert O'Brien, very well grounded, steady, I think he could be in a position to be helpful. And Third, the last Deputy National Security Advisor, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg retired, also understands all
of that. Those are names that I'm actively seeing under consideration in a Trump administration. Dave, We're just going to have to wait and see who he puts in positions of authority that'll give us a clue where we're heading.
Er, would you serve the President elect?
I have never turned down a request for service from the country, and I will it at that, Tom, Admiral, you're.
Out with a new column here at Bloomberg Opinion focusing on NATO. You say your phone has been ringing off the hook from worried US allies in Europe in particular. We're wondering about what's going to happen with NATO. What is your best guess of the path forward here for that alliance? Given the rhetoric that we've heard on this campaign, Trill, given what we heard when Donald Trump was in the White House.
Last time, one of my European colleagues called me and said, are these the last days of NATO? The short answer is, I don't think so. I think it's highly unlikely a Trump administration would simply pull out of the Alliance. But it's going to get uncomfortable over two issues. One is
defense spending. The Europeans are going to have to continue to raise their defense spending above, well above I think two percent of gross domestic product, maybe two point five or even three percent that gets into the zip code of the United States and are spending. And the second one is over Ukraine. If the US, as has been rooted about by both Trump and Vanced, decides to cut off aid to Ukraine, that'll put pressure on the Europeans to support Ukraine. Both of those issues could become wedge
issues in the Alliance. Final thought, Dave, I think that will be okay here. We'll work through those challenges, but it's going to be bumpy times in Brussels.
What is your perspective on what happens with Ukraine. It seems like the President elect is so hell bent on ending this with some kind of settlement, maybe before Ukraine wants to have this conflict ended. Is that a foregone conclusion now? And as we talk about the relationship between the US and European nations, do you foresee a moment when if that's what a president Donald Trump is advocating for Europe says, we're going to go this alone. We have to continue to support the Ukrainian cause.
I think the latter is a real possibility that if a Trump administration simply walks away from Ukraine, a lot of the US Europeans, particularly the Big Four Germany, UK France and Italy, those have the capacity collectively to support the Ukrainians. Frankly, I don't think it'll quite get there and here so I think it plays out. I think Trump will put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians to negotiate. I think Trump will put pressure on the
Russians to negotiate. That negotiation could follow a ceasefire early in a Trump administration.
How would it come out.
I think the Russians probably would end up with Crimea, four provinces of don Bass, about twenty percent of Ukraine. They're in it now. It's going to be hard to get them out militarily. The rest of Ukraine, the other eighty percent. I think sales on free democratic and eventually has a path to NATO.
Ed Well, your book two thousand and thirty four is happening in real time. This from the Associated Press. In the last four hours, Marcos of the Philippine Deans angers China with new laws to demarcate South China Sea territories. Do you see a continuity moving from Secretary of Austin to President Elect Trump's new Secretary of Defense.
I do, I think again, within the framework of the Department of Defense. I'm hopeful that we can keep politics at a minimum and have a good transition. And for listeners who don't know this, the Philippines have the same security guarantees that the NATO members do the Pacific. And by the way, as you know, Tom, I've written a new book called The Restless Wave about World War Two.
Part of the reason I wrote that book is to help us understand the sweep scale scope of a war, in this case with China during World War two, as I talk about in The Restless Wave with Japan, we need to avoid that.
Never enough time. James Tavitis, thank you so much. REPS will see you called again for public service. The Admiral of course, of the US Navy.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
You daily round up on the front pages the Lisa Matteo Hour, Lisa's Start Strong.
What do you got?
All right?
This is all about your favorite vehicle, the cyber truck. Okay, you could be seeing more of these on the road. There's a reason why Tesla is offering the option to lease the all wheel drive version and they electric pick up for three years. The price it's going to be nine hundred and ninety nine dollars a month. You also have to put down seventy five hundred dollars on top
of it. But if you want the two year version with zero down, if you want to go that way, you're still going to pay about one thy, seven hundred and fifteen dollars a month. So it's going to cost you. It costs one hundred grand.
You have been in one of these times?
Have you written in a cyber te.
No Tucker Head is on Madison Avenue, and I saw it, and to me, Ken, our global technical director, helped me. It's the width of the cyber truck. It won't get in a parking spot. Is that right, Ken?
It takes up. I've seen them trying to reach Wake up, Ken, Okay, I've seen them try to pull in.
It's ridiculous.
I think it's the width is real because it has some steering thing where you can maneuver it more easily, maybe into it.
Oh, you play.
I don't know.
You've got some guy next.
If it's that or a Rivian. The Rivian is more luxurious. Cyber truck doesn't have the level The impresses me.
Yeah, it's like it looks like, you know, sort of Lincoln is yeah or whatever. Okay, well, well if Tucker's looking at one right now, we'll see make a message.
Okay, the man behind the voice of the popular AOL email alert has passed away. You don't know his name, but you certainly know his voice.
You've got mail, ah.
That is him. Nineteen eighty nine. Elwood Edwards he was paid two hundred dollars by enough Start called American Online AOL to say that famous line. A lot more he had a career broadcasting. He started in AM radio, behind the scenes TV. But how he landed that gig. His wife actually worked at his customer service represented for Quantum Computer Services, which would become AOL and they were looking for this voiceover and she said, well, what about my husband?
And they said sure, And that's how it became.
Guess how much he got for that? How many dollars? Two hundred dollars? Yeah, I mean my daily rate, my daily rate here on surveillance.
It's to bring it to the election, plus tang to bring it. To bring it to the election. We haven't had the articles yet. David Gerr of how Technology, Email, social media.
All that this is an incredible sigu shift.
That's and mister Trump said, this is what happened last time.
I'm going to be more technically savvy this time. Am I right?
Yes?
And I've said a great piece of over the last couple of days about how he embraced new media and podcasting in a way that felt very authentic. He was getting good guidance on that.
Why I see you if Colbert brought this up last night with John Dickerson as CBS, Markert Brennan with US later, Why am I still getting emails from different people saying they need money?
I've noticed that too. Some senate race is still not decided.
That you know, Yeah, what next, Lisa?
Okay, do you ever wonder why sometimes you go get the over the counter drug medicine and sometimes it doesn't work and you just feel like you're taking it and nothing is happening. There could be a reason for it. The FDA. It's a proposed removing a certain ingredient that they say is not effective in cold medicine oral Federal efferent, that's what it's called. It's safe, but they just say
it doesn't work in relieving your stuff. He knows. So the Wall Street Journal pointed this out a few weeks ago. They pointed us to some studies. So now the FDA is jumping on board. So that could mean versions of benadryl, musenex tail and all. They could be coming off the shelves and they just have to work around it, or maybe come up with a new formula without that.
Incas, she picked this because you've been coughing so much. She's worried about you.
He doesn't go for the over to counter.
That bills using the coffs.
I mean it's but to me, the big problem is now you go in the drug stores and you can't get.
It the stuff.
It's locked up, even in your neighborhood.
Yeah, even in our neighborhood.
My word, order it online.
And do that all right, So you know how we have the luxury of the coffee here, the Bloomberg, all different varieties. But at Intel, they had the luxury and they wanted to take it away. But now they say, you know what, we're going to bring it back because we want to improve morale. Intel has not been doing the best. You know, they've gone through a couple of struggles. They missed opportunities with AI, so now they want to bring that back to help with office morale. That's what
these local reports are saying. What is not coming back. They used to get free fruit, so now that's not happen, so now they have to bring their own fruit if they want to do that. But also they're not going to be getting those reimbursements for internet phone commuting costs.
And the company, you know, said back in August that they're going to cut about fifteen thousand workers, so that was part of the cost cutting, but they said, you know what, we're keeping the coffee, got to keep employees happy and caffeinated.
It's gonna it's going to be interesting. I mean, it's a real seat. I mean we're making jokes about it, folks. But Intel out of the Dow.
Oh yeah, it's a big deal, A big deal. Mostly it's a big deal. You move on.
But Sherwin Williams like, good morning Cleveland. I just don't get it. Twenty some billion in revet who it's teen sweeens. I mean, I just I'd love to know from the Dow Jones industrial average people how they picked Sherwin for thirty other companies.
I just you're bored. Is it formula we're not doing? You're not noting off phones.
I'm really thinking about your last time I've been to Sherwin Williams years ago. I probably have to paint do some painting in there.
Probably to some pain this weekend. Missus girl will be get the ladder at is well. Thank you Lisa for the newspapers.
Greatly appreciate that.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal