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the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Folding in the Economics into Fixed Income. Iraw Jersey joins us now from Bloomberg Intelligence. Is this job to report enough to shift the vector of ten year yields? I don't mean the nuance up to basis down three base Hira Jersey. But can we get a vector change in the ten year yield off this report? Well?
I do suspect, Tom, if we get a pretty strong number that the market's going to price out, and you know, almost any chance of an early cut, so meaning even a June at this point would be early. So you know that can that can push ten years yields up another ten twelve basis points. In fact, you know, we've we've moved. Well, it's not unusual these days to get you know, eight to twelve basis point moves on on big missus or beats in ten year treasuries. So I
think people are repricing things very quickly. People are very quick to get out of risk today. Whereas you know a few years ago everyone was just like happy to sit on their ten year yield even at two percent. But whereas now it's it's a matter of you know, hey, you know, do we want to own this risk going into this you know now that we've seen this number, or you know, do we want to you know, just
get out, just wipe our hands of it. And I just I think we're in that ladder, at that ladder stage where where risk is just very very finicky right now.
Paul ask a question because I just want to talk about Aston Villa, Brentlford, and we can't. Oh that's going to be we can't do that. Into the jobs report.
Tom's looking at the fixture, which I'm not sure that football scores and fixture okay, very good, Hey, are we look at the ten year treasure here four point three one percent. Are we kind of in a trading range here? I don't know, four to four and a half percent. Is that kind of where we are here? As you look at this market?
Yeah, more or less.
You know that the high on the technical charts was four thirty five, and we broke that earlier this week, and and but but that was not a convincing breakout to the upside. So so I think that yields probably are falling back into that range, call it four oh five to four thirty five for now, But keep in mind, you know, the data we're going to get in a few minutes can completely change that.
For sure.
What does the real yield signify here? I had a two point zero two ten yure real yield IRA Jersey right now one point nine and it's back a little bit one point ninety five percent? Is that owners to American business? Well?
I think that this is you know a lot of people would say that this is normal. You know, we got used to the fifteen years from you know, twenty two thousand and seven to twenty twenty two for real yields being you know, zero or negative, and now we're back at at levels that are more consistent with what occurred between the mid nineties and and the financial crisis of a little more than a decade ago. So so I think that most people would say that this is
quote unquote normal. Certainly, it's it's more in the range I think of what the Federal Reserve would like to see. You know, when you look at really yields over time, you know, when really yields are here, usually still have pretty decent growth, and you're certainly seeing that in some of the data.
I say with us right now, as we go one minute away from the American Johns, you've bord Lisa matel have some market news, and then we'll go beneath the headline data, Paul Streety, what are you looking at within the report?
It's interesting, Tom, obviously, I'm going to be looking at the wages here. I think, you know, the average hourly earnings, you know, zero point three percent on a month to month basis, four point one percent on a yearly basis. That would be down from four point three percent last period. So yeah, kind of dovetails in with we still have decent wage growth, but it is moderating a little bit.
Can I just go macro. Yeah, three point eight percent surveyed unemployment. I don't know what it's going to be, folks, But ten years ago, twenty years ago, that was like nirvana exactly.
And we've been here for a long time.
I mean, I'm sorry, it's it's up four percent unemployment rate forty five seconds away. Let me tell you the market benchmarks I look at when we go into this. We got to talk oil ninety one dollars a barrel on Brent crude, eighty seven dollars on West Texas intermedia. But far more importantly, futures up nineteen. The ten year yield is four point three two percent, pretty much flat
on the day, four point three two percent. That two year, more fed friendly yield four point six five percent, four point six five percent for those keeping score at home, dollar on d X y one oh four point one eight. That's some real obscurity in to a job's report. Always interesting, and of course the revision's important as well. There's coming out now. It's a terrible number, Paul, I mean America, the exceptionalism of America, the defeatism has witnessed in the report. Paul,
just give me the number here. The non farm payrolls. Are you kidding me?
Three hundred and three thousand, Tom, Just put that in perspective. The consensus was two hundred and fourteen thousand, last period was two hundred and seventy five thousand. Wages we're talking about that up zero point three percent month a month, right in line on an annualized basis of four point one percent, right in line there, But a big big beat on the payroll nine.
That's what he's pulled back a little bit, a positive eighteen down to positive eight Just the first people are really going to have to digest this, and I think the revision, which we do not see yet, is important to there. It is right now, not much of a revision, that's key. Two hundred and seventy thousand from two hundred and seventy five. So this is a hugely constructive report in terms of non farm payrolls, and you can get
that survey unemployment rate three point eight percent. Markets pull back, they now come back a little bit higher, futures up thirteen, the VIC sixteen point four to five, and in the yield space, as John Ferrell says, a ten year yield four point three seven percent, As Ira Jersey said, the ten year yield lifting up nicely, already up six basis points.
Our economic indicators on Jobs Day, bought you by our good friends at Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisors with the solutions they need to grow a thriving business. Commonwealth go where you Grow. Visitcommonwealth dot com to learn more. Ira Jersey with Bloomberg Intelligence. Does a ten year yield in the curve? Does it buttress up against resistance or can it break out to new higher yields?
Well, I think the fact they we're over four thirty five, you know, we do target four and a half percent here, so not necessarily today, but nonetheless, I think that this just shows you the economic resilience of the United States right now. And it's going to be hard for the Federal Reserve to make the case to cut interest rates when the data is running as strong as it is, and because of that, you'd probably get the entire curve start to move a little bit higher.
I wouldn't.
I'm just looking at the market here where you know, very slightly bare steepening with with ten year yields underperforming two year yields by two basis points. Not huge, but I would suspect over time that you get maybe a little bit more of a just an upward shift in the yield curve as we price out another fed cut.
Paul Sweeney, the real yield comes nicely back. I was one point ninety five and off six basis points goes to two point zero one percent, and that's an indication the lift in yields.
Mister Jersey's speaking of I follow top live on the Bloomberg terminal because we have the professional journalist from Bloomberg News and end a current global economy reporter. He basically says another whopper of a data point four that the payroll numbers, and I'll stick with that. That seems also calling out here, the participation rate has essentially recouped some
of the losses since last November. Here, so we had the participation rate just inch up a little bit, sixty two point seven, Tom, the consensus was sixty two point six. Last period was sixty two point five, so a little bit higher at labor force participation rate have to see.
Thank you for joining us on Apple, CarPlay, YouTube search, Bloomberg Podcast. Thank you for the vigorous live chat this morning without commercial interruption. Ira Jersey with us here for the next eleven minutes, and we are thrilled to bring you right now. My market economist of twenty twenty three, Neil Data, is to the renaissance macro. I can't say enough about how he nailed the spirit of the consumer
and the spirit of nominal GDP. Neil Dota does this jobs report and just as a generalization, a two fourteen look and I'm going up roughly one hundred thousand to three h three on NONFIRMT payrolls. Does that signal in employed America signals continued resilient consumer activity? Well?
Sure, I mean if you take the sum product, I mean, it wasn't just the growth in jobs, Tom, but the work week actually extended. You know, I remember the average work week had been a big source of concern, you know, towards the end of last year early this year, and now that's basically been recovering. So it's not just the growth in jobs, it's the work week. So when you take the sum product of jobs, hours and hourly earnings, you're talking about aggregate incomes growing, you know, an excess
of six percent with inflation still moderating. That's a push for real income growth in the aggregate for the economy, So that's you know, I mean, that's fine for consumer spending.
Neil Dudda Joe out on live chat has a smartest I think the guy's a PhD. He's got you know, he's got the smartest comment. Neil Dutta and Irid Jersey, I've seen meal to you, here's Joe got to wonder, how is everyone so consistently wrong? There's the smartest analysis I've seen today, Neil Dna. What does a gloom crew get wrong as we slide into another dutter like quarter?
Well, I think, I mean, look, people talk about long and variable lags to monetary policy, Tom, there are long and variable legs to fiscal policy, and I think that's kind of what people have missed. And you know, you talk about howshold balance sheets, they're quite strong. You're at a point now where you know, global growth is starting to pick up against and that's going to support US
manufacturing activity. So you know, I do think that we talked about equal weighted market indexes, right, equal weighted US GDP is improving as well. I mean, you're going to get more growth from things like business equipments. You're going to get more growth from things like inventory investment, residential investment. You might get a little bit less on consumer spending and government, but generally speaking, the breadth of growth in the US is expanding, and I think that's important.
So in way Lee had that from west Rock, you're talking about this broading. I just can't say enough, folks about a three hundred thousand non firmperial I don't care about any other babble is Jo says, thank you out on live chat on YouTube. Paul, We've all got this wrong. Even Lisa Matteo got this wrong.
Exactly right.
Hey, Neil, Tom and I have been discussing over the past few days, and Bloomberg News is doing some very good reporting on the impact of immigration into this country, you know, over the last several years, legal and illegal, and its impact on the labor market. How do you factor that in? You know, I think it's.
Just important to kind of take the data as it comes to you and not make, you know, not try to explain it away one way or the other. What I think matters is that if the FED is leaning into this argument that labor supply is the reason why jobs growth is strong and immigration might be one part
of that. It could be also rising participation rates. But if labor supply is a reason why jobs growth is strong, then that doesn't mean necessarily that strong jobs growth in and of itself will push the FED away from cuts to Palase point. In other words, a strong number won't push them away from cutting as much as a weak
number will push them to cutting. So I think that's the important point about this, is that if labor supplies a big driver of the strong jobs growth, that's going to have important kind of implications for how the FED is thinking about interest rates. And I recognize that obviously the curve is shifting higher yields or rising on the back of this report. That makes sense, But keep in mind that you know, the inflation I I still think
is in and narrowing in a slowing path. Okay, I mean, I think it's very interesting that globally, just go down the list, Canada better than expected inflation, Switzerland better than expected inflation, most of Europe better than expected inflation.
So the US was.
The outlier in the first quarter, at least so far. That kind of speaks to this residual seasonality argument that the Fed's been leaning into and at the same time, domestically, inflation expectations, guys haven't been going up right like, so you have to kind of go to first principles. Even with this number, productivity probably picked up in the first quarter, and that means that unit labor costs are under control because wage growth over the last three still running about four percent.
Meel doe it with this renaissance macro here, we're commercial free in this job's report across America. Good morning. The headline out of Bloomberg News is simple, Paul Sweeney us job's roar again again? Is operative word is payrolls jump three one hundred and three thousand. Why don't you bring an Ira Jersey. He's been looking at what Assenville is going to do with Brentford, so let's get them back into the game.
Ira Jersey chfus interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, is still with us. Hey, I'm looking at a red headline across the Bloomberg terminal. Fed swaps shift full pricing of Reid cuts to September from July. Boy, that's your market reacting pretty quickly. What do you make of that?
Yeah, so you know the market's obviously moving quite a lot, And if you use a WRP function, or if you look at our SOFA option sentiment model, which we run at the end of each day, you know, we were pricing for obviously six twenty five base point interest rate cuts just two months ago, and now we're pricing for actually a fifteen percent chance of a hike by the end of this year. So you know, there's been a
significant seed change. And I think that this data like we are getting today just feeds into that narrative that, you know, can the FED actually cut if the data remains as good and the answers probably know and you know, but clearly they think that they're going to need to cut. But if they're data dependent and the data is this good, it's going to be hard for them to make that case.
You know. I agree that that when you look at the entire swath of data globally, that there are pockets of weakness, but that just hasn't fed into any of the US data yet, or at least enough of it to make it be able to convincingly make the case that the FED needs got imminently.
And Paul Dunna said this as well. I mean, you go nation to nation to inflation reports. You know, I get there's like some inflation worries, but at the bottom line, there's a resilient disinflation that seems to be in place. I look at Switzerland, but you know there's other places where you got some real disinflation.
And Eric just real quickly despite the data here. I think the rhetoric, I'm kind of surprised. I think the market some time time surprised that the rhetoric FED Chairman J.
Powell continues to be on the margin dubbish. What do you make of that?
Well, I'm not sure it was dubbsh I mean what he said yesterday or even what they said, what a preponderance of the speaker said. They said that they're data dependent and that they won't cut if the data is resilient, that they're going to let the data lead them so and I'll take them at face value when they say that. So if you see data like this where wages are growing recently, you have higher you have the higher participation rate, which is good, and at the same time three hundred
thousand jobs being created. You know that's not an economy that's falling out of bed deet.
Look for the reports Samira Jersey and his team here through this Friday here on how this jobs report, there's roaring job report folds into your fixed income space. Final comments from Neil Dotta. You know, dota worst nominal GDP and give us the douta view for Q three and Q four of this year.
Well, I mean, right now, if you look at it, a nominal GDP is probably running six percent in the current quarter, maybe somewhere between five to six percent, So that's a pretty pretty strong number. Yes, but I do think that we are moderating. I think GDP growth is going to probably be in the two to two and a half percent range, and I think inflation will be around there too, so we're probably going to be, you know, closer to four and a half five percent nomenal growth
by the end of the year. And you know, again, I think for your viewers, what's important is growth in and of itself doesn't keep the FED from cutting. I mean, this is really neutral is higher, and that means that all the FECT can really do is recalibrate policy. It doesn't necessarily mean that they can't cut at all. And I think that that's an important nuance because we're used to very much. The Fed either cutting a lot to one percent or zero, going to zerve right or not.
And you know, that.
Kind of recalibration of policy is something we haven't really been seeing in a while. So I do think that if inflation slows, I mean that requires some adjustment of policy. Ultimately, the FED believes they control inflation, and if inflation starts to come better than expect it over the next few months, as I think it will, then you know, all all SQL that means that they're running a bit tighter policy.
Mail doatta, Thank you so much, Neil Dotta with renaissance macro optimism on America. Forty four years ago, we didn't see the American labor economy like we see it now. Who at the margins doing that? You make fun of it, but I'm sorry. Places like zip recruiter, YEP are absolutely nailing it. You should see a report. We're not going to go into this massive victory lab for Julia Pollock, but her report on jobs predictions is scary prescient. This morning,
the optimist Julia Pollock joins us from Zip Recruiter right now. Julia, congratulations on a great non farm payrolls call. As we pop out to three hundred thousand. What does ZIP recruiters see right now, granular in your digital world, what do you see in the labor economy?
So we see very strong participation with applications per posting risings over ten percent over the year, So labor availability is high, and I think that's one reason companies keep adding workers. It's becoming easier to hire them.
And you see that of the.
Wage growth data today, which is really sort of a great thing to see in this Goldilocks report. It shows a strong, strong labor market, but where wages are not overheating, this is not necessarily an inflationary report.
Who's hiring out there, Julia, We're the areas that are seeing some strength.
So that answer to that question has been very boring. Lately, we see the same industries leading in month and month growth, year of a year growth, again and again and again, and it's those asical industries, healthcare, the public sector, and leisure hospitality. But recently, in just the last month or two, we are starting to see signs of life in these sectors that we're struggling before, retail, manufacturing, construction. So the rolling recession could be turning into a rolling recovery.
So, Julia, are you folks at ZipRecruiter, I mean you see this data real time here. How's it evolved over the past couple of years in terms of people signing up the ZipRecruiter? What are they looking for? How long are they there? What's the feeling from employers? How's that evolved over the past couple of years.
Well, every US employer at the same time was scrambling to hire in a big hurry, and it was more competitive than ever before between about mid twenty twenty one to late twenty twenty two, and then of course with the FEDS supersized rate hikes, everyone became quite cautious and worried. Employers were wired there'd be a downturn. They didn't want to overhire into a downturn, and so we saw quite
a change. And for twenty months we've seen it a downward slide and online job but that's turned around the last two months.
Julie, you retain your heroing. I mean, I mean Paul framed this out. I mean not only your experience at RAND, in her public service with the United States Navy, she was smart enough. I mean, think of all the fancy people we talk about who go to places where it
rains thirty days a week. She's out of Pepperdine, which is like the smartest place to go to college if you want, Julia, are you the advantage in your analysis of the American labor economy because you're not in three ZIP codes of New York or two ZIP codes of Washington DC? Are you advantage because you know which pool to swim in at Pepperdine?
I do think it helps to be at a remove from Washington, d C, sometimes in Wall Street, and to have sort of an outsiders perspective.
And of course, okay, you.
Know, the sunny California sunshine does help one to be an optimistic.
Oh really, I didn't know that.
Okay, against the US economy.
We've had a biblical eluge here. Very quickly, Julie, this is important. The over lake Paul and I are seeing is immigration in legal and illegal migration matter. How do you fold those in at zip recruiter?
Well, you know, Ernie Tideski has fantastic research on this recently, and he shows that our employment growth in the US here would have been much stronger than that in Europe even absent immigration. But immigration likely explains about twenty percent of it. You know, I saw estimates three point three million immigrants came into the United States in twenty twenty three, well above the one point one million that had been predicted before. So this is a huge source of labor supply.
But also the immigrants buy services and goods, and so they prop up consumer spending and revenues at businesses and hiring.
So juiya take this labor data that we receive today as well some of the other data we've received over the past couple of weeks.
What do you think the Feederal Reserve is going to do here?
What's your view at Zyprecruter, Well, I think the Fed worser will be pretty happy to see this data. I mean, their dual mandate, after all, is to keep the labor market strong and prices under control, and this report seems to say we can do both. We can walk in chew gum, We can create lots and lots of jobs and have a healthy economy without wage growth causing a wage price spiral. So I think three cuts are not off the table after this report.
Julia, thank you so much. Congratulations on a shocking depression pre labor economy.
Report she's out of always worried about going to go on those stays.
Yeah, well, I don't make predictions anymore because I've been wrong. If you're wrong for twenty years, you just give up. Julia Pollock at two hundred and fifty thousand, and we clocked in hit a solid three hundred thousand. Here's what happens, folks, and the blur that we have. And you know the difference is Paul's got a beverage in his hand looking
at the surf up in New Jersey. I'm at home with that bill going, oh, I got another economic report, and then there's something that just stops you in your tracks. As a research economist, Claudia Islam has done this for years. It's not a one off. She's transformed economics with a Sam rule. I'm not going to go into it, her work at Michigan, her work at the Fed. And then the other day she wrote an absolutely definitive essay for
Bloomberg on part time employment. Doctor Sam joins us on this job's day, Claudia, I'm going to cut to the chase. Part time employment is second rate employment? Is it.
Not necessarily? Part time employment gives people flexibility when we need to really look hard at in particular, is when we find out people are working part time but they'd rather be working full time. Economic conditions are bad, they got their hours cut, they can't find a job like That's when it's really bad. Now, we can always make part time jobs better, but they do have flexibility for people as they have caregiving other responsibilities they just can't
do full time. Part time for economic reasons is really low, and we needed those part time jobs to come back so that people can have that flexibility.
How does immigration in the new fears of America over migration fold into part time America. Somebody coming across the border, somebody coming into JFK or LAX. They're going to take four jobs and take away my job. Speak to that stereotype.
Immigrants are one of the heroes in this labor market recovery. You don't see the headlines anymore about the labor shortages. We got more labor, not fewer customers. That's what the FED does. Immigrants are not the only group, but they have come in big time and taken jobs that were open. We have not seen the unemployment rates for US born individuals rising. It's more for the foreign morn because it takes a little while to get all the papers or find the job. So really they solved a big problem
and are taking pressure off of employment. So when we think about them in the labor market, and they're doing some real.
Good Claudia again, the really strong nonfarm payroll data coming out today. I'm going to focus on the average hourly earnings here on an annualized basis four point one percent, ticking down a little bit from last period four point three percent. How do you think about the wage environment in the US labor market?
So, in general, we've seen the labor market really settle into a good rhythm. We had a big payroll number today, but you look back over several months, it's been pretty good little change. If we settle into an expansion, and the same goes for wages. We have seen wages be stronger, and yet inflation has been coming down. Right, we can have a more productive, more workers and that can support a more dynamic economy. So wage of growth is probably
still going to come down some. We are still working through getting the workers in and we're not going to see the big wage gains again during the labor shortages. Probably what we should expect we got to get to a sustainable expansion. And yet there's no reason to fear those numbers, right, they have not been inflationary in the way that some people were worried a year or two ago.
So, Claudia, just looking at the futures markets and the FED swaps here, it looks like the market's pushing out a rate cut. Maybe that June isn't even a lock anymore. How do you think the Federal Reserve is going to react to some of the data?
Never is a governor of the film. Absolutely, pizza Claudia would go nuts. I mean it'd be like your.
Diet exactly, Claudia, do you think the Fed's going to react to some of the data we saw today?
So the Fed.
Leaves lives in the real world, right, So they're looking at these jobs, but next week is really the main event.
Right.
They have said multiple times inflation has got to come down. They are not weighing in on, oh, the unemployment rate is too high or the economy is growing too strong. That's not their job, right, They've got to get inflation down to two percent and unemployment low. And if this economy, you know, has you know, the legs and can keep running. That is not for the FED to step in and stop. They don't want to. They just want their dual mandate
and their job is done. So but I see it, like, I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we don't talk about the risk of the labor market. And yet I mean, frankly, you get these good jobs numbers, you know it likely unless something blows up, it'll take time. And this is a very like you know, they're they're they're really scared of acting too fast. So yeah, I think pushing things out, I do not see them not cutting. I think that is too pessimistic.
You know. I look, Claudia, it's your wonderful essay, and you've got out of Vanderbilt Rachel Donnelly and Adam Sean Blackler talking about the difference of the states. Of all of our audience. You got states with high wages, high social benefits. They've got a different attitude than states that's say, go out and get a job. We're not going to give you any benefits. Who has the better labor economy out of that?
What I think to say about this labor market is take the win. We have had a massive recovery and frankly move past that in terms of working on some structural problems we had before, and yet keep pushing right like, there are ways and particularly people on the margins. Part time jobs fit in that space. Also low paid full time jobs. Not every job in this country is good enough. A lot of them are, even those have gotten better.
And yes, these researchers looked at the importance of decoupling a lot of the benefits that we need from employment, and particularly from full time employment. And it pays dividends to people, obviously, and it makes our economy more productive. Workers that are really engaged, they can do.
More if Paul, I think one thing not spoken about here is what percentage of a paycheck is consumed spend right away. And I think there's a whole bunch of people in the Bloomberg world. I'm as guilty as this as anyone to go, well, they're maxing out there for one, kay, and they're saving for this and they're going to buy a rivian belonging. They're spending their money in the economy.
So Claudia, let's go right there.
I mean, again, with this backdrop of a strong labor market, how do you feel the consumer these days.
Oh, the American consumer is strong, right, and if you get a virtuous cycle going between a strong labor market and a strong consumer, that really can keep the US economy going. And the reality is a lot of Americans, either by need or by choice, spend their paychecks.
Right.
But we also saw that when people were getting more money, particular at the bottom, they will put some away that quote unquote excess savings. That was because we gave people the money they needed to be able to save.
Claudia Ross has a brilliant live chat comment here. Thank you Ross for cutting to the chase. And maybe this is unfair Claudia, but I'm going to take a shot with your list view of our nation. What's the distinction between legal and illegal immigrants or migrants? What's the partition right now that doctor Somem sees between somebody coming and legal doing the paperwork in that they're in Queens, New York, whatever, in New Jersey, whatever, and somebody coming over the border illegal. Right.
So I very specifically cut my lens on the labor market and solving labor shortages. And in that sense, I mean if people can get a job as immigrants, then they're filling a job that was open, right, it's so I won't go into I mean, obviously, people coming in
different paths have different constraints on them. A lot of the people coming into the country right now that don't have permanent legal status or individuals that were waiting for hearing if they can get asylum status or not, and for them it takes longer to get the paperwork legally work. So yes, there are different groups, but at the end of the day, they are contributing to our economy and that's in that space, like that's an important lens to.
Take doctor Sam, thank you so much. Really controversial, like can I'll get it out this weekend, folks. Spectacular Bloomberg opinion essay from Claudia Sam on this raging debate over full time, part time employment, Bloomberg surveillance and our newspapers with Lisa Matteo misery and order. I'm surrounded by Yankee fans joining us now after the success of Just metten the other day on Yankee's opening day, Damien Sasaur, Hi, can they really play at the caliber of the Braves and the Dodgers?
Eighty one thirty nine and one all time and home openers they've won six and the last seven since twenty seventeen. Stron Men facing his former team.
After two years with the Cobs. I think it's a zero point zero zero er.
Let's straw.
That is a duke guy Romans.
But Marcus Stroman, to me, is really a lynchpin here for Lonessa Cortez. Isn't you know you need Johnny Padres. Yeah, yeah, you got to have a number three. Is Stroman their number three? Well?
I think Stroman can actually, I mean the way he's pitching, I mean again, he could be a number two. I mean, certainly we need you know, Cortest has not been well. But I mean, let's just let's just take a second here and enjoy the fact that the Red Sox swept the A's in Oakland. That's one of the last Sacramento. They're in second place in the East. You know, our little brothers there up north, you know, so we're really.
Happled with that. Really happy Mike from Bedford just emailed and it's a time you'll love the Orioles time. Just so you know, let's just started Damian Sasar with us here. Allow us to talk about Damien. Join us, Yes, in the mateo moment, Lisa, what do you have?
All right? So we're starting with the Wall Street Journal. They broke down how far one hundred dollars goes at the grocery store after five years of food inflation. So they're saying they got the information. They analyzed Niels and i Q dat of commonly pers it some items we're valued of one hundred dollars in twenty nineteen. Today that same grocery list costs thirty six and a half percent more. The biggest price surge eggs sports drinks that climbed about
forty percent. Shoppers would have to remove about thirty seven dollars of items to spend that same amount as they did in twenty nineteen.
Puts it in red.
How much you think a fen dog, the end dog by Pesky Paul, You think of fend Dog's going to be expensive?
This?
Ye?
A little bit higher, I guess.
And the problem is, Lisa, those preces they don't come down per se, right, So the rate of inflation is lower.
That's a good story.
But okay, I'm getting less than my in my bread basket f dog.
Yesterday and for the first time in ages, I ordered like expensive beef twenty eight dollars a pound, Paul, what's that piece of beef? Go in those fancy steakhouses you eat at exactly? You up to eighty bucks.
We're actually a couple of weeks ago we were at the top place locally and it was fifty eight dollars for my New York strip.
No, I take my sixty eight dollars. I take the twelve. Yes, I know we have.
To move on. But as this is the number one election thing other than immigration and migration, yeap, people, I'm sorry, it's I mean, fancy people like us are pounding. Can you, I mean half of America's going, what is this about? Continue? We could talk on this all day.
Okay, So the price of gold, we've been talking about that right heading records. Young investors are turning to it, and they're getting it at Costco my favorite police Yes, okay, so they get the gold bars and a dollar for the fifty hot dog at the same time. Imagine that.
Right.
You can go online select stores in the jewelry department, but they're selling out fast. They limit true bars perperse and that's it. But gold Buyer is saying that Costco's prices they're lower than they see at other retailers. And then the younger generation.
We digress and we have an expert with US Gold twenty three hundred. Is China buying at the margin.
They are, I mean gold's up ten percent year to date, but whichs really interesting. You got Brent up eighteen percent, you got copper up nine point two percent, I mean gold, copper and gold, we're only up three percent a few weeks ago.
The margin, that's the margin.
Absolutely, yeah, no, absolutely, It's not just China, it's other central banks as well. But reserves are rebuilding and being replenished across the emerging marketsphere. We can talk about all the smart stuff if you want.
To, we have to balance it. You know, you made an interesting point.
I just want to highlight this.
We have payrolls coming up, but the difference between the payroll the establishment survey and the household survey, and along our chief economists talking about this on the tape this morning, JP Morgan's been talking about this. This is why we see unemployment ticking up, but these huge payroll numbers. It's because not only are we getting more people being hired, but the labor forces rising because of immigration and migrant workers.
As you point out, if you weren't listening in the last hour, we discussed this with camera Jennifer.
Okay, next, all right, four seasons yacht trips are going to be the priciest way to cruise. Yes, okay, they're debuting their first ninety five Sweet vessel in January twenty twenty six. Are you ready for the price? Seven nights in the Caribbean costs no less than twenty thousand per suite, up to three hundred and thirty thousand for that nearly ten thousand square foot glass and closed Sweet if you want the fancy one. So that's how much you're spending.
That doesn't include food, that doesn't include drinks.
That's separate.
But what you get is more space. Because they're saying it's the same size as other cruise ships that carry like seven hundred passengers, they'll only carry two hundred and twenty two max. That's a difference.
That's because you don't like people. I don't like people.
You don't You were born for Bloomberg surance.
All right.
How to take the perfect selfie during Toller solar eclipse?
Totally, there is a way to do this.
Okay, So the light can make it tough to take the selfie because a lot of people are going to be doing this, so you have to take them and wear red or green outfits. On the day of the eclipse, because the sky grows darker, the colors become a little muted, so you have to pop. But it can be dangerous. That is the thing that we want to point out. Even though you're facing away from the sun, those UV rays can bounce off your phone screen.
Into your eyes. Did you know that? Okay?
And you have to make sure you're wearing those solar eclipse glasses because there are a lot of phony ones out there.
We got our some Walmart.
You did really really hilarious, folks. Really even and we're not in the total eclipse Rochester, New York is sort of northwest to here. It's very very dangerous and you've got to have legitimate I'm sure Walmart vetted him eye thinks. But the thing I want to mention is even if it's cloudy and you can't see the sun and the moon, the darkness is spectacular. It can be four minutes, five minutes, it's the middle of the day. The birds go mental Damien Sasa or it goes mental that it.
Can be very very Monday. Monday just emails in.
It says time. You look like the assistant to the Travelings of New York Yankees pushed.
Back their time at the starting time for the game Monday because of the eclips.
Yeah, so what it's going to be? I thought it was time?
No.
No, Well did a certain president, former president just look right into the sun.
He did?
Fine, he that's not funny.
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