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She is with Private Wealth, Chief investment strategist Private Wealth of Partners Group. Anastasia Mrosa joins us, and she is one of the select few that said, climb on board this American economic experiment and enjoy a multi year bull market. Are we gonna double digit again this year? Are we going to pop four years? Is it four years in a row?
I double?
I think we have a chance aid that for sure. I mean earlier in the year I thought we would have hit seven thousand and stayed there. We haven't managed to do that yet. We pulled back three or three or five. But the expectation for the year was around seven percent returns. So yes, Tom, we might get to that ten percent or more for this year. But you know, the broader back drop is supportive right on a number of different factors. The consumer side, I think is actually
strengthening this year as we speak. The other notable development. For me, this week is all about CAPEX and CAPEX not only the United States and not only from hyperscalers, but CAPEX globally. We've got the European manufacturing numbers came out this morning and those popped quite significantly, driven by German physical stimulus. So you know, back to kind of the US economy though CAPEX also is an engine now and then housing maybe that'll pick up two.
Yesterday Paul was way too optimistic.
Yeah, I mean, I mean, I'm sorry, there's like an optimistic tone corner.
There is a little bit good earnings out there on a stage. I'm looking at the WEI function here for the world equity indices. The US is doing fine as it did less year.
But the rest of the world's doing better.
Right, so rest of the world versus US outperform buy and large last year, Ye, same this year. How do you view kind of where to allocate geographically?
Right?
I think the way we see allocations is that you don't pick one or the other. You do both. You do US, you do Europe, you do Asia. And the reason for that, you know, if you think about the next five years, let's say it's all about localization, supply chains, it's on shoring. It's about you know, making sure you cater to the domestic consumer. So it used to be that you could allocate to a US multinational and that would get to the Europe exposure or China exposure. That's
no longer the case. So that's why I think you have to invest in each specific region. But to bring it back to sort of the cyclical momentum, I think the reason why Europe is actually seeing an our performance versus the US because the US has this rolling AI scare. You know, maybe it's software names, maybe it's wealth tech names, and so the AI exposure has not been a positive to the market. But I think even beyond that, there
is something positive happening in Europe. It is the German fiscal stimulus that I mentioned that is showing up in the manufacturing momentum. It is also the fact that Europe is striking deals of its own. You know, fifty percent of global GDP is covered by some sort of a trade deal with EU now, the latest one being with India,
so that's a big deal. And then you have this bifurcation between the Northern Europe versus southern and Southern being more services oriented, consumption oriented, so that's holding up well too. So we've always liked Europe. We invested about thirty nine percent of Summer solutions in Europe. But I think there is a cyclical upside to it as well.
Now in the US market, we've seen a pronounced rotation starting I guess in late October November. Is that a short term trade or is that something more prominent, do you think or because it's we've in the US market's always been led by tech, always led by tech. But yeah, it seems to be rotation a little bit.
I mean, it feels a little different to me this time, you know. And no, I don't think the hyperscala trade has gone. I don't think the semic inductors are not going to perform. But I do think there's this realization that for the last maybe ten years, it's been software's world and all been living in it, and software was eating the world and so on, and it's been sort of you know, the business model that's acid light, that's
what's benefited. But as I think about going forward, it might be that we're in the acid heavy economy once again. It's about physical assets, tangible assets. They can be made obsolete by the stroke of AI overnight.
You're brilliant on this in New Mexico years ago. Let's bring it in.
What happens to your world if the hyperscalers decide to grow up and actually issued debt like Google did the other day. I look at that, you know, zbody one on one up but bu and it's just got to be a plus plus plus for confidence.
Well, that's right. And the reason why they're confident to do so is because they have the free cash flow to do that. And you know, although to Paul's point, the markets were fearful and the spreads were somewhat widening, you know, back at the tail end of last year, the realization is they have hundreds of billions of free cash flow and you know, just cash on the sideline,
so they can afford to issue that debt. The reason, tomm I think there is such a great deal of confidence for hyperscalers is because they do see the future potential growth in their cloud revenues and whether it's Google, whether it's others. You know, you see that hockey stick infliction higher in cloud revenues. That's important. They also see the revenues of their customers the likes of open AI Andthropic and others, and those have been going up substantially as well.
Earnings were I don't know about eighty percent the way through the S and P five hundred reporting earnings. They look pretty solid to me. Are they enough to support this market here going forward?
They do look solid? Absolutely, And you know, I think what's actually really interesting, too, Paul, is that even earnings for software companies that we've worried about also look solid. Will look through a number of software companies and sixty percent or so of them reported and eighty to one hundred, depending on the sector of reported positive earning surprise and earnings growth of twenty or thirty percent, so that alleviates
some fee in that particular pocket of the market. And then beyond that for the market in general, take a look at the profit margin. It's going up, is gone up despite tariffs, and we're looking for you record thirteen point nine percent profit margin. That's likely driven by an me.
Make it to Tyler, say we make it the Supreme Court thing today? Couldn't they? Yeah? I mean they're definitely gonna they give them away of the hockey game.
So I hope not we don't want that.
We don't have that Anasta Jamres.
So we continue where the chief investment strategiest Partners Group nailed the bull market to see be direct.
Is this the Partners Group of Switzerland?
It is, of course yes.
All a soup costs forty dollars in a.
Wrestle, it's quite a lot.
Does the Swiss want to buy America?
Because we have a different different people saying they're saying, well, you know, people are sort of upset with President Trump, da da da da da, but they really want to buy America. To the Swiss institutions and continental europe institutions, do they want to buy micro Look?
I think the realization for all institutions globally is that you might disagree with the current policies, you might disagree with the current tactics, but not to invest in America is not an investor's best interest. You know, you think about the corporate tax rate and again the fiscal stimulus that we have come in into the US. You look at the innovation, you look at the margins, you look at the productivity gates. It's really difficult not to allocate
capital here. I will say one question mark for investors has been around the direction of the US dollar, and if the dollar weakness continues, does that actually eat away at your return significantly? You know, we're of the view then you know, we're at a point where there should be some more stable conditions between the euro dollar, for example. So with that as a backdrop, the capital flows definitely should continue to the US.
How about what are we doing in the bond market here? I can sit in into your treasure and get three and a half percent. Are you suggesting your clients take credit risk above and beyond that?
Yes, I mean for a you know, more risk averse, you know, individual perhaps looing at the shorter term of the US curve might make sense. But you know, we're also investors in private credit, and you know, private credit, despite the headlines that are out there, we see fundamentals that are still quite solid. I can elaborate on that in just a minute. But we also see the yields that have come down from twelve percent, but they're hovering, let's say around nine or ten percent, which is still
quite attractive in a world where rates elsewhere are going down. Now, back to the solid fundamentals of private credit. First of all, default rates are holding steady and they're quite low. They're also bifurcated. You know, if you're in the cyclical industry like autos, yes you're going to see a higher default rate.
If you are a.
Non sponsor backed credit, you might see a higher default rate. But if you look at the sponsor backed especially secular growth credits, we're looking at a fall rate of one one and a half percent, which is quite low and quite normal. So and even in software pally, I would say for private credit, we're still seeing a default rate that's half what it is for the index. So a lot of the noise that's out there is noise, and I think investors would be well served to take some risk in private credit.
Yeah, you mentioned software.
We've seen such a rotation out of software stocks as part of that AI concern. Rippling through the market is a time. I mean a lot of these names, you're like, well, I always wanted to buy them, but they were too expensive. Yeah, it's now time to I hate the falling knife scenario, but it seems like some of these names are pretty attractive.
I think some of them are, but that's the key word. There is some you know, I wouldn't necessarily step in and buy the full index or the full ETF because some parts of the software universe have sold off rightfully.
So you know, first of all, if you looked at the valuation before the valuation was based on annual recurring revenue growth, that would assume to be x. But now that ARR growth has come down for a lot of those names, and maybe it's not ever going to get back to those twenty twenty one levels because of agentic AI. So are you going to pay the same multiple or is the low multiple attractive if you have lower revenues?
Maybe not.
I wouldn't step in there, but some incumbents are worth looking at it.
My essay a couple of years ago, Lawrence McDonald was just brilliant on the absolute wall of money that has to find a place to go in investment.
It's still there.
Isn't after the amoroso bull market of the last five years. I mean like it's tech season now, I mean every pick the calendar date. You know better than me, Anastasia. There's just still this just wall of money that's got to find a place to go.
Right.
There is there is, and it's really coming from a lot of different places. You know, if you think about kind of the consumer side of it. This year in particular, we're looking for higher refunds. Some of it will twenty
four percent year of year. Some of them will find its way into consumption, but some of it will find itself an investing If I think about the institutional capital worldwide, you have some some of the sovereign wealth funds that are benefiting or example, from continued sales of natural resources, and so you have that steady stream of revenue that's
finding its way into the market. And then you know, if you think about corporates, and we talked about margins, we talked about the cash accumulations, that too is adding to it. So you know, maybe Tom kind of the extension to your question, well, is there too much money and especially in private markets, you know, chasing some of these deals, And yes, there's an increasing amount of capital, but I would say there's an increasing amount of opportunity as well.
Alexis and Paul and I we have no life, so I've got to ask. One of the most famous restaurants in the world, folks is where Partners Group.
It's like the lunch room for Partners Group in Switzerland.
Is Zoom Yeah, it's the I'm going to butcher the pronunciation guesthouse wrath scaler. Did you go to the seventeenth century guest house rest scalar? I think an overpriced Swiss lunch. I did not.
I had a wonderful Swiss dinner at a restaurant the name I cannot remember. But no that I will put that on my list.
Hold, they have Swiss prim Rin's enter coat, brom butter, Belpernol.
No idea for like seventy dollars. Put me down. I think that's like Selberry's state.
AT's sake, it sounds great.
What is it like working for the Swiss? I mean, this is very cool. But you go right to get there?
Yes, to go to Zurich. Zuog is about a thirty four minute drive from there on the east coast of the lake. There are a lot of lakes. There are a lot of lakes and a lot of mountains. But no, it's a partners group. Has been an exceptional place to be at and it's we've got a thirty year history, actually a thirty year anniversary for us as this.
Year shops run out of you know, between Boulder and Denver. Right, So you go she goes to zug and as the barley soup and then she goes out there and his ELK.
Yeah, that's right. And we do also have a presence in New York. But you know there's a lot of investment processes that have been in place for a long time, and you know that that does come with Swiss discipline. I think the thing that strikes me is the the global perspective that we're able to bring to our clients in the integration that we have within our team.
So what your research onw is telling me is your long Europe.
Yes, we are thirty forty percent has been an allocation to Europe and we're up towards the higher range of that right now, Straight company Swiss.
Oh yeah absolutely, But Paul, I mean I think you know, we can do a remote from Scenic zoog Yep from the guesthouse Reth Skelet.
It's like Wicked famous restaurant, and we'll let's.
Make it happen. We'll make it happen.
Anastajamarosa Partners Groups in Switzerland and Broomfield, Colorado.
Thank you so much for joining us.
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So Alexis mentioned the math, I want to go over it, and Lindsay's going to tell me what to do.
You're Lindsay, Pigs.
This was Stifel nominal GDP last time around, ending September thirty was a China like eight point three percent, Paul. If you add in the one percent government shutdown, we go from five point one percent published nominal to six point one Ish. I'm going to say, there is Well joining us, the Queen of Ish in economics, Lindsay Pigs joining us. What do you do with these numbers? Lindsay, how do you format the view forward? Given the plethora of data in the last ten minutes.
Well, I think when we dig through some of the details, we're going to see that it's pretty messy, particularly given that the economy was shut down for almost half of that three month period. Now, the President says it shaved off about two points. The BA says it shaved off about one percent. So we know that there was a significant damping down effect, regardless of whether it's one or
two percentage points. So parsing through some of the details, I think the more important figure to focus on right now to really gauge the underlying momentum of the economy is let's strip out inventories, let's strip out trade. Let's look at real final sales to domestic purchasers, which rose at two point four percent, more in line with what we saw in the third quarter at two point nine percent.
Well, that's like, that's brilliant and I really really buy this angle from years ago at Fidelity with Betina Dalton. And the bottom line, Paul is that's a pretty good number number.
I think it's a pretty good number. And how about the inflation outlook there, lindsay, if you're given that the economy is growing at a solid rate, what's the inflation story on top of that.
Well, as you know, I have been long concerned about inflation and the Fed's lack of focus on inflation. So we see this pick up to two point nine percent, and that is in the wrong direction. We don't see this ongoing improvement of disinflation that the FED remains very optimistic that we're going to achieve eating back to two
percent as the forecast by twenty twenty eight. Now, any improvement, of course, is welcome, but I do expect inflation to remain elevated nearer that three percent pace for some time, which will keep pressure on the bed to remain on the sideline.
She so under sells it. I mean she was my Economist of the year one year or two years, three years ago, I can't remember. Lindsay with Jim Bianco was out front with Mohamma and Larian. You know what, folks, Inflation is going to be resilient.
She nailed it.
So, Lindsay, talk to us about kind of how you think the Fed is digesting the numbers we had today, some of the labor data we had last week, the CPI data we had last week.
How are they putting it all together? Do you think?
Well?
I think right now the Fed is looking at this moderate trend line in activity as a justification for their earlier decision to cut rates. Remember, over the past two years, we're now one hundred and seventy five basis points closer or arguably at now that neutral level. But the reacceleration in payroll in the latest report. The pickup as we saw this morning in inflation is going to really solidify
now their position on the sidelines. As we saw in the minutes yesterday, there were some members that we're considering that we're willing to consider a rate hike scenario. I don't think we're there quite yet. This is a FED that has been willing to tolerate above target inflation for years, So simply maintaining this three ish percent isn't going to
move the needle. But they are sending the signal to the marketplace that they're focused on inflation and that should help rein in market excuse me, inflation expectations.
We have a PhD in economics. You can say ish yep with quality Lindsay, I mean, I mean. The bottom line here is it's a K shaped economy. We're going to get all sorts of mail. You guys are nuts. You have no idea to struggle out here after fourteen minutes of analysis.
How K shaped is our K shaped America?
Well, I would argue it's not necessarily a K shaped, but more of an E shaped recovery.
It's going to be uneven.
Certainly, there is this dichotomy across classes, particularly as we see household net worth significantly increase for those at the upper end of the income spectrum as a result of a run up in asset prices via the housing market the equity market, a benefit which the middle class and the lower end of the income spectrum has not benefited from. But we do see other stimulants coming out into the economy, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act averting a reset to
a higher tax rate. This won't necessarily provide a windfall to spending, but it will help to maintain the current levels of expenditures across those different rungs in the E shaped recovery so on. Even yes, but not necessarily a K shaped where some are particularly perpetually i should say, doing better and others are losing momentum.
How much of an impact are you expecting, lindsay from some of the President's legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill, I mean, are you factoring that into your GDP forecast, your consumer spending forecast? How is that impacting things?
Well, we're looking at the overall impact on the economy for twenty twenty six to be upwards of several tenths of a percentage point. Now, that doesn't seem like a lot. But again, as we're looking at an economy at a growth rate at two point two percent last year, any additional boost to consumers or businesses it is a welcome
step in the right direction. But right now, I think the biggest factor is going to be how much of a dampening effect does that overheing of elephanty prices take out of consumer's ability to spend out in the marketplace.
So help us here with what Alexis said, and she took her queue from the President of the United States. He's out with the tweets saying it costs two points a shutdown Lindsey pigs and just back of the Steifel Nicholas envelope, how much do you add on to real GDP to get where we are now?
I think the President may be looking at this overly, maybe accounting a bit more for the shutdown then I would assign. I would say, maybe in line with the ba's forecast of about one percent. But remember whatever we lost at the end of the year, we typically regain when the government reopens, and so if there was a one percent loss, we're likely going to see an even stronger one percent boost across the first quarter.
Now this time it is a little more complicated because we.
Did see that second round shutdown, although it was much shorter and much less disruptive. But I would expect that to be reclaimed. Anything that was lost at the end of the year to be reclaimed at least within the first half of twenty twenty.
Six, Doctor Peas And thanks so much, Lindsay p because it was st.
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Look at the summary of the market. What do you do you look at foreign exchange? Jane Foley joins us from rival bank. Jane, it's been way too long. Where is the flight to quality now? Do people feared? Do they go to the US dollar? Do they go to the Swiss franc Do they go to the Lebanese pound?
You know what, that is a very good question, and I think, of course the Swiss frank is up there because after all, you know, on a textbook basis, the Swiss frank is perhaps the only currency that really ticks all of those boxes. But you know, this week, the dollar is the best performing G ten currency and netfoth it does seem that the dollar is picking up a
little bit of a safe haven bid. Now that is interesting because I think really since last April, the market's been debating whether or not the dollar has lost its safe haven status or not. And this week's activity will come down really on them of those suggesting, yeah, you know what, it's still there.
For those of you on YouTube, it's a shrinking. It's like Rick Baranas in the movie. Yeah, you know, they shrinked down. Jane Foley shrinking down.
We're going to continue, too important a conversation to cut her off, but Jane Foley with a shrinking video today, Pop.
Jane, where do you see value out there in the currency markets?
Here?
If I'm a value investor, I'm looking at currencies, where would you send me?
Well, you know, I think I'd probably send you with the same sort of places i'd send you last year. And if we look at some of the better performing currencies for twenty twenty five, well, we had to Swiss frank right up there, we had the Swedish Krona two. And you know, this is pretty interesting because it does appear that, you know, the market may not really believe in the basement. You know, there's no proof of the
US debasement. After all, you know, foreigners are holding record amounts of US treasuries, but they're still a little bit worried, you know, about these sorts of things, of fiscal issues, and they still want to diversify. And I think the market's therefore look at those fundamental criteria, the countries that have really good fiscal positions, good levels of debt, and you know, the Swedish Kroner, the Swiss Franca up there.
But this year, you know, something new really has evolved, and that is countries G ten countries which are looking to potentially fike interest rates. And this is a change because right now the market's only really sort of confident of the Bank of England and the Fed cutting interest rates further this cycle. The Australians are already tightened and there's a discussion now will norwaybe the next to Titan That we had a bit of a pushback from the
Rby and Z the other day. But you know, they could be the they could be tightening before the end of the year, and maybe even the Sweds, maybe even the ECB. So for the vast majority of the ECB, we're talking about this transition now potentially into a hiking cycle, and that of course has created a few more interesting ways on the foreign exchange market.
What's the bet now on week dollar? Paul and I keep talking about the week dollar week dollar week dollar. It's sort of kind of like not happening. How sizeable is the bet of euro one twenty or yen forty nine.
Well, in terms of you were a dollar, you know, one to twenty is still right there in the market consensus, really, you know, not too far a quarter or two at least. I haven't got one twenty anymore in the forecast table. I took that out before the end of last year, because if we look at the dollar really and its performance, say against the euro, since the start of eight two last year's it's the very start of July. Ue dollar's sort of gone nowhere. Yeah, it's chopped around a bit.
Certainly at the start of this year there was a lot of volatility, but we're right back at the levels we were at the start of the year, and we're pretty close to the levels we were at the start of July. The dollar has held its ground after that huge tumble it suffered at the start of the year. But that tumble really does continue to really shadow, really influence the way people think about the dollar. They're still worried that we could potentially see further structural weakness, But
I'm just not convinced. There are still lots of pretty good fundamentals in the US. You know, you look at the growth data, for instance, productivity data that continues to act perform, and that I think was the basis of that buy America trade that dominated for so many years after the global financial crisis, all the way up to the start of last year. So I think we're going
to chop around in ranges. I think the en probably can do better, but I think we do need to see the Bank of Japan probably accelerating its rate hiking cycle, and I think we hear more of that as we move into the spring and get beyond the spring.
Wage talks about thirty seconds left Jane real quickly the yen, it's got a lot of people kind of confused where the direction is.
Where do you think the end goes?
You know, I think Japan is so exciting, so many structure reforms, lea, there's so much effort to try and get people away from cash into the stock market, into assets. Foreigner is on a very small amount of that JGB market. I don't think we should be as worried as the market was. I do think that, you know, in a year or two times, we're going to be looking back and think, wow, you know the en we're pretty cheap back then.
Jane, thank you so much for the brief. Jane Foley with a wonderful Dutch bank Robobank out of London.
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Joining us now Dinas Fandier, who is with Bloomberg and Guni Economics, and she has had the privilege of studying with Lawrence Freeman.
What was it like, Dini?
You wander in the door at King's College, and it's literally like you're talking to the Adam Smith of Worse studies.
First, thanks for having me. You know, you don't know better than to just be excited and appreciate that you're studying with some pretty great people, and then really appreciate the mentorship that they give you, which is what I call this war that we're in.
It's on the cover of the New York Times. There's maps that you look at them and all that, Dana, have you ever seen? I mean, this is not like Kuwait, It's not like Iraq. There's something different about this Iran affair. Of the President discuss.
So much to say so little time. I mean, you know, I think the I think the Iran issue has historically been a real unifying issue in the United States, which is odd given that the US political leads are pretty much split on absolutely everything. Iran tends to unify them. Although I think Trump's desire or at least build up and steps towards war is beginning to kind of chip away at that unified elite. So I think there's that element of it, And then I think there's the element
of the build up. Right, the build up is the military build up. The US military build up in the region is really consequential, It's really significant. It's unlike anything that we've seen in the past before. Is it really intended to go to war or is it intended to scare the Iranians to the negotiating table. I think there's
an element of both. But the risk, of course, is that the build up is so significant that unless Trump gets everything he wants out of an agreement with the Iranians, he's going to have to use it to justify that build up.
Dina. I think, as you mentioned, the build up of military capabilities in that part of the world's substantial. Do we know what the US strategy is? What does the US want here from Iranda? That seems to be unclear for a lot of folks.
I mean, that is the million dollar question. What are the objectives of what the United States is doing right now? It started out, as you know, we had to find a way to contain or roll back around nuclear program. Then for some people in the United States, it became about regime change, then it returned back to the nuclear program. It's really really unclear, and the reason for that is I think the administration itself is unclear on what its
objectives are. I think there's an element of opportunism right now, okay, but there's an opportunity, Dan.
How are the generals in the admirals like the pros at this like you do? They feel left from where you sit? Is this being run off the desk of the president in the Oval office or is there actually a discussion of normal planning of a conflict or a war in the process of war studies.
I mean, I think it's impossible to go to war
without at least having a conversation with the generals. And in fact, it's been reported that President Trump has been briefed on the military options when it comes to Iran, and part of that briefing in conversation is actually why Trump didn't go to war with Iran in January when the protests were happening and when he promised to send help, because I think the briefing from the generals really frightened him and pushed him to build his capabilities up first.
That's the smartest thing I've heard, Paul. I mean, I'm sorry, but you know, forget about all of our parents riveted and molded by Pearl Harbor. November of nineteen seventy nine. Sure was a problem, the Exocet missile on the Falklands, There was a problem.
Where's the problem here? Given what we see in those maps.
I don't know, Soded, what is the role that Israel is playing in this situation? Other allies, perhaps other players in the Middle East? Is it just the US and Iran with this stare off here? What are the others doing?
I mean, I think the main players are definitely the US in Iran, and the main decision maker on this front right now really is President Trump. But I think Israel is playing a huge role in trying to sway Trump and trying to really convince him either to go to war or to have a very maximalist position in
the nuclear negotiations. And bizarrely, compared to a few years ago when the first nuclear deal was being negotiated, it's the US's Gulf Erab partners that are actually urging restraint, that are saying we don't want war because we don't know what will happen once the fighting starts.
Well, Dina, that's right where we wanted to go. I mean, you know, did you study the American Civil War? Dana at King's College?
Or very little, very little, Okay. July eighteen sixty one, first Battle of bull Run.
The socialites of Washington went out to watch the battle because it was going to be a short little skirmish. America after Iraq, America after Afghanistan is jaded about short little skirmishes. Do you assume if something happens this weekend, whatever, the president decides that this is some form of short little skirmish, or do we end up they both run like the American Civil War for five six years.
I think if you had asked me this question six months ago, seven months ago, I would have said, I think there's a chance we can keep it short because the Iranians don't want to escalate further. They don't want to fight a war they know they're going to lose. I think today the issue is really existential for Iran,
so they have no incentive to not escalate. Their incentive is the opposite, escalate through everything we have at the problem and see what we can do, how to get the US bogged down further in the region, impact oil markets by shooting at oil and energy infrastructure in the region, potentially closing the Straits of Marmous and once that happens, it's absolutely impossible to keep this short.
So, Dina, I guess we step back and say, perhaps a strategy for the US would be regime change, because anything short of that seems inconsequential relative to the assets that are being deploid there.
Well, for sure, that could be an option, but then the problem is the assets that are deployed there are not enough. It's going to be virtually impossible to change the system from overhead. You're going to have to put boots on the ground. And I don't think any American president wants to put boots on the ground in Iran.
Yeah, absolutely so.
I mean, again, what's the next step you're looking for, Dina.
I'm looking for the beginning of that conflict. I think sadly everybody has cornered themselves into that first air strike happening, and then we'll be looking at how does Iran escalate? Does it go all out immediately or does it do it step by step. I think my sense is that it will be a pretty rapid escalation, and then it becomes really difficult to say what will happen next.
Data. Thank you so much for your work, Really really appreciated this morning. Will be in touch with this all week and Joe Matthew and Kayly Lynes leading your covers. Look for that at twelve doon dta Esfandier Middle East Tuna Economics lead for Bloomberg Econizers.
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