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Constancena joins us right now, thrilled that she could be with us today. I look at where we are, and BOYD, does it reaffirm? I'm gonna call it Wallerian rate cuts? Are we now generating rate cuts into the first quarter of next year?
Well? I think I said in my note to you that whatever we see in today's CPI is not going to reflect what's coming down the pike.
Right.
We have seen companies absorb a lot of the tariffs because there's so much uncertainty. And why would you pass on tariffs if you think that they're going to be removed or negotiated lower. You're just going to impair your market share and impair your brand. And I think that is about to come to an end, and we're going to see that in future CPI reports.
With that said, the FED is going to.
Cut next week, and this certainly gives them cover for next week and possibly even to cut again in December.
Are we anywhere near the territory of a fifty basis point right and cut cool? We have a dearth of data, But I mean, come on, if we were just to make it up, folks, it's Friday helping her folks. If we made it up Constance and we said we got a fifty seven thousand non farm payroll and then maybe next month we get a forty two thousand non farm payroll, I mean, come on, they got to get it going, don't they.
Well, it's interesting, and I'm actually sitting here in Michigan where close to GM where the where you mentioned those layoffs, And certainly if you look at at a state like Michigan, it's got a higher rate of unemployment than the rest
of the country. It's definitely suffering. And it has been our view that the FED is going to look at labor markets more than inflation, because they're going to look through that that CPI increase that we do eventually expect from tariffs, and Paul to say, the private data suggests that the job market is weakening as well. Right in the absence of government data, we have the ism we have ADP we have.
Indeed, Paul I just figured it out. Constance Hunter is going with Diane Swack to the Michigan Michigan State.
Go compan Good, good, good, Constance. I mean again, I'm just looking at the CPI data today. I'm just not seeing this tariff induced inflation here. I know, seems like maybe the companies are just kind of taking it in a P and L and we are not going to see tariff induced inflation.
Well, I don't think.
That that means we're never going to see it. On the other hand, I mean, I guess there is the possibility that firms find ways to be efficient and absorb these tariff costs, but it seems somewhat unlikely, and firms, if you survey them, have said they want to pass on tariff price increases. But it's really challenging when you think of what a CA shaped economy we are in, right that top ten percent of consumers of wage earners are also those that own equities and are participating in
this bowl market. Where's the bottom part of that k We're starting to see increased delinquencies with credit cards and auto loans. Those are levels that we saw coming out of the global financial crisis, and that indicates that that segment of the market is really struggling.
So where will we see that when we see that in consumer spending? Will we see that in retail sales? Where do you think we'll see that?
Well, we're not going to see it in retail sales because it's not inflation adjusted. So if anything, we might see retail sales go up a bit, but I think we'll see it in the inflation adjusted consumer spending numbers. Households are going to have to pull back.
And the other thing is, while it's not in.
This report, the anticipation is that we're going to see upward pressure on utilities like electricity, which is going to curb the ability of households to spend in other areas.
Labor market here, that's another mandate of this Federal Reserve. The headline numbers look fine, but I know there are definitely some concerns underneath the hood there. How do you think about the US labor market?
Well, the labor market is weakening because we're seeing a declining breadth that we have seen for some time now. I'm looking at them talking about the August data. Of course, we don't have that September data. And then if we look at again alternative indicators. So so if you look at the ISM employment indicator, that's been a very good especially on service, is a very good predictor of overall jobs growth, and that also is weak. And then we're
seeing a pullback in state and local hiring. The state and local municipalities received huge windfall money from the rise in real estate prices, and they were hiring a deficit of workers that they didn't hire coming out of the global financial crisis.
Comes as quickly. Here does a president deserve to be impatient with the Fed?
Well, it depends on what you think the Fed's job is.
Right.
If you think the Fed's job is to move fast, break things, be anticipatory, behave like a hedge fund, I suppose yes. But by design, the FED is supposed.
To be a little late to.
React because if they react.
Preemptively and they're wrong, there's much more downside risk then there than if they're fashionably late but still in the right direction like that fashionly lady.
Yes, Constant, thank you so much. Constance Hunter. Coming to us to the Economic Intelligence Unit today on this inflation to review here REQUIESCE and report futures up twenty two they double features up forty one, up sixtents of a percent, Nazak one hundred and features up one percent, now a point nine percent as well, the vics solidly under seventeen wow, sixteen point sixty four. Speaking of well, let's do this first Bloomberg surveillance. I'm so out of practice with their data, Paul,
I know, it's a shock to have data. He is at the height of fashion at all time. It's good to catch up and get a framework for the weekend with Kit Jukes. He's had a foreign exchange strategy at Society General. Kit just cut to the chase. What are you going to write about for Monday within the geopolitics that you see the litmus paper of the foreign exchange system? What's your theme to get to Monday morning?
Going into Monday morning, I suspect it's going to be the resilience of this strong dollar. In all honesty, even just looking now over my shoulder at what's going on since the release of a soft CPI print, the market is not you know, it's going to price in some rate cuts from the Fed with more enthusiasm at the margin than before. We don't know much more than we did, but we'll price a little bit more enthusiastically on easing.
And I'm not seeing the dollar backing off very much at all on that because and it's.
Sorry, no, not continue, please please, I.
Was going to say, because the CPI numbers don't tell us anything new about growth, and that's where the real debate about the US economy is going to happen.
What you're so good at, kit, Is there a bet in the market right now?
I think the market's betting on rate carts, but it's also betting on resilient growth. That keeps me confused. And I should add this is the most dollar centric, US centric economic cycle that I can remember in ages because the uncertainty around the US GDP numbers retail sales number because sure prize numbers is much bigger than the uncertainty about the lack of growth in Europe or in Asia. So it's all about you, guys, and and we're getting
no information. So when we get some we think the we think the labor market's weakening, but not knowing more where I think collectively assuming that we shouldn't be revising down GDP forecasts so that there's lots of productivity, there's lots of ail, there's lots of good things. The equity market's still strong. So US exceptionalism is still in place. That bet is there. Today's soft CPI prints will encourage rate cuts, but they won't change that optimism about the economy is my bet.
And Kit it's interesting for me at least to hear you say it's it's it's still all about the US, US exceptionalism because the trade has been that. It's you know, it's kind of about you guys over in Europe. I mean, you're starting to spend some money on defense and infrastructure, and you know you can't really depend upon the US to the extent that you did maybe you did before. How do you think about that dynamic? Because we do have the euro again add at one sixteen here, well, the.
Europopped up to one sixteen on a move down in US rate expectations that narrawed the gap significantly, on some optimism in growth. Obviously the fiscal problems in France haven't helped on that. And equally that there's a there's not a huge amount of you know, there's hope, but if we look at the if we look at the exceptional spending that the Germans were getting ready to unleash. It's not happening fast enough. So you see, the real performers in Europe are the people that can be more fleet
of foot. The Swedish Chrona has been doing very well because they are going to be they have a bigger arms industry their economy, but they also are pushing forwards. The Norwegian kroner is doing really well. The euro is lagging those and the Swiss Frank is doing as well as the euro is speaks volumes about safe Aden's that's right.
Where I wanted to go. Audrey Child Freeman with Bloomberg at Queen Victoria's Street Kit was just brilliant yesterday. And analyzing Swiss franc I mean, I guess it's out of the purview of many of our listeners and viewers explain the ramifications for America, for Zurich, for Geneva. If the Swiss Frank breaks to new strength.
I think it causes I mean, I think people will then turn around and see much more clearly that there's money chasing Haven's. That the money that we see enthusiastically going to gold, because we quite like that story that Actually, this is a world where people want to put their money somewhere safe and a vault deep underneath the alps. That that's not animal spirits in the sense that we
know and understand them. So it tells people that although the US economy is dominant, people aren't really confident in the dollar, and they're not confident in the euroe. They're not confident in the yet. And hey, hey, presto, we don't mind if the rates of zero were coming to Switzerland.
Kitchooks, thanks for the brief wait too short, Kitchooks for society general. Let us know kid, when you're in New York City next. I'm honored to have you in the studio. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Michael Darta joins some roth capital here steeped in Wisconsin economics. Michael, I'm just going to cut to the chase. Everyone's head spinning, and yet we just got a disinflationary vector. All in all, like we got real GDP wrong and nominal GDP wrong this year, are we getting massively wrong? The need for the FED to cut where they're.
Going to have to pick it up, Well, that is yet to be seen.
Tom, I think the FED is a little bit on a preset course here at for the next two meetings, and then we'll see what happens to this big divergence between the labor market data which has been exceptionally weak and the activity indicators. Uh, you know, looks like Q three probably ended on a pretty strong note with underlying you know, real growth pretty close to three percent and you know, not nominal you know, up in the fives. You know, that is not a picture of an economy
that needs a lot of monetary support. Yet the labor market indicators that the fees watching have been have been weak, and and so there's a bit of a divergence and puzzle.
That I think needs to be solved there.
You know.
Tom Michael is a native of Wisconsin. He did graduate from the University Wisconsin at Whitewater, but it lives in Naples, Florida. He bailed on the Wisconsin winters residents.
Yeah, I mean, you know, I mean.
I see these Wisconsin people that you know, they're all they just they go to Florida.
A transportation of the dogs, keeping united in delting in chips.
Hey, Michael, So we're not I guess if youuld just look at the CPI print today, we're not seeing any real tariff induced inflation in this economy.
Does that surprise you, Well.
We definitely saw a lift, you know, mostly in goods prices over the course of the last few months.
And that may be easing back now.
But I will say this, I mean, the bond market does not look like it's really concerned about inflation. The bond yields have fallen from a high of four point eight percent early in the year. You know, we're just a touch below four now. Inflation expectations in the bond market have been coming down. That's a forward looking measure, and so I think a lot of the tariff oriented upward pressure on inflation is likely to be quite temporary.
And that's exactly what forward looking markets are saying. I'll also throw this out. There's a private sector group called Trueflation. The data is on the Bloomberg terminal and they update daily in terms of year over year inflation readings, and it's a much broader swath of prices. The CPI is
based on about ninety thousand prices. The True Inflation Index, which is blockchain based, is driven by fifteen million or so prices, and that's pretty close to two percent, And historically it doesn't typically undershoot overall CPI inflation, So there's not an obvious downward bias there. It's just higher frequency and it's you know, it's measuring a much broader swath of prices, and this kind of a divergence is exactly what you'd expect with a one time relative price shock from the tariffs.
It's very different.
From a monetary inflation, and so that definitely gives the FED a bit more room to maneuver here to try to support the labor market trueflation.
Tom, I've worked here at Bloomberg for sixteen years. This guy, this Michael Dark guy, just taught me a Bloomberg function I didn't even know existed.
The history here, I mean, we've got to get to the market open here. But I really want to express the originality of what young Darda did years ago. He used to put out he worked for Jude Weninski. It was legendary when he was like eighteen years old, and then he went over and all of a sudden there were these research reports melding the market and economics. And the only reason we talked to him is he used Bloomberg terminal screens boom, and it was like ed Heimens.
People were like stealing research from data over the years. Now at rough Capital, Michael, I think I want to focus on the equity markets. Here it's Friday, and I'm going to get my angst of gloom crew rationalizing this is going to end. What's your treatment? Speaking of Jude Weininsky, of the history of great bull markets, how do they end?
Well, Tom, you know, if you want some efficient markets hypothesis and theory here you know the market will end when the profits expansion ends. So typically bear markets are clustered around recessionary periods. But here, how's this for a statistic. Ninety percent of the time post World War Two, the economy is in an expansion phase, not a contraction phase, and the equity market tends to go up about seventy five percent of the time. So the default position should
be more optimistic than pessimistic. All of that said, people are nervous because the valuations are quite high concentrated and infotech and the AI driven story, but that's not going to be enough to know, to cause the market to crack here. I really think you'd need to have the earning story evaporate. Q three earnings have been pretty good so far, high single digits. It looks like we're probably going to end up double digits year over year for
earnings growth. So as long as that support structures under the equity market, you know, I think we'll probably hold on to most of these games.
Michael, what's your view of the US labor market here? The headline numbers seem pretty more than fine, more than good, but I know there are concerns under the hood.
Yeah, there are some concerns, Paul. You know, the ADP figures that we have through September showed actual job declines in three out of the last four months. That's not typically something that you would see in a healthy economy. Yet the activity indicators I mentioned, GDP tracking and so forth still look pretty strong. There's a Dallas Fed index that is weekly that scaled to year to year GDP growth, and that's still running up.
You know.
Above two percent, and.
So I think what could end up happening here is that as we move into next year, we'll see some of these jobs figures improve. I think the tariff and uncertainty shock caused employers to pull back, But if the top line growth is still there, the profitability story is still intact, then you know pretty unlikely that you would see the labor market completely fall out of bed. And that is something you know, Tom asked about the FED.
And if the easing expectations were too aggressive. If we do start to see a better tone and tenor to the employment data, you know, the market will have to reprice the the totality of the easing cycle that you know is now pretty aggressive.
Michael Data. Thank you so much, Ruth Kapa, I really appreciate it. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
One LUs A Palti Guswin right now, founder Vista Energy. She has been absolutely fabulous about the larger politics of it. Just a Friday question, maybe the president meets with the president. G Is China energy independent? They really rely an oil coming through Singapore, right.
Yes, but China once, maybe one day to become independent. They are producing a lot of hydrocarbons right now. I mean they're producing their own coal and they are becoming one of the largest natural gas producer. The amount of gas they are producing now is but almost the same as the whole African continent. But they are still importing. They are still importers, and their strategy has been also to create links and relationship between all those suppliers.
My head is spinning this morning with your geography. Which geography are you most interested in? What you're writing about for Monday?
My focus has always been global, as you can hear with my accents. I was born and raised educated in France, so Europe, I know it. But I've been based in the US for twenty years now and I've been focusing a lot on Asia. So the US maritime roots so very global. But my sectorial is, you know, expertise is energy commodities geologetics.
Yeah, it's not a job interview. More so, there's lots of boats on the water that everything's floating around right now, Is that true?
There are many boats, Yeah.
There is.
There a lot of oil in the marketplace these days.
So we have the same question on the gas side too. There are you know, we are washed with oil and gas potentially, but the key question for countries is how to get it just on time in a safe manner. Diversification of roots prices and I think we need more oil c the countries exporting their supply.
Where do we where in reality does the Russia gas and oil go and can that be curved or is always going to be a way for that that those hydrocarbons to find their way to a buyer.
Yeah, that's a great question because actually this week we've seen a ramping up of sanctions on the European side and on the US side. In Europe, the European Union has agreed on phasing out Russian gas and Russian energy by the first of January two Salon twenty six, with a two year transition period. So they will start first
potentially with energy and then pipeline gas. Right now, there is almost no I mean, you know, the share of Russian gas in Europe we used to be forty five percent is done to you know, a trivial amount and zero into zero persons in twenty twenty eight. And so it means that in Europe is going to be possible with a cost potentially, So Europe is going to be more dependent on other suppliers. Like the mix has really changed, more Norwegian gas, more US energy into Europe.
Russian hydrocarbons. Are they going to go to India? Are they going to go to China? Because that's kind of where I think we Absolutely.
We've seen a reconfiguration of trid flows. The gas from Russia, especially the sanctioned gas is going to China, like the energy cargoes from Arctic two. Only China has been taking it.
Thank you, the sanction thing. And I'm not up to speed. And as human Stenus is brilliant. Yesterday and Leslie, how does India and MODI fit into successful sanctions? If Modi doesn't play with Trump, it doesn't work, right.
Yeah, So yesterday was all about the oil sanctions, and it's going to be a matter if they are successful, it's going to be a matter of enforcement and whether the US alliances are strong enough. Real mody still take Luke oil or rost Nev oil right now after yesterday's sanction. I'm not sure will China still take it? Probably maybe, I think strong allies from the US, we're not there taking this oil anymore.
Interesting so, but with Brent crew it's sixty six dollars a barrow. The global energy complex can't be very happy these days, don't they need oil seventy five eighty eighty five dollars a barrel.
So it depends what you're talking to if you're a producer.
That's what I'm thinking about my friends in Texas and Oklahoma. Not to mention the folks at Opek.
Yes, it's a fine balance. For the Trump administration, you want the right equilibrium price. The same for Savudi Arabia, they want the right price for their economy. In the US, you know, we're lucky because the US has abundant oil and gas. The producers need to see return on their investments. What is going to be interesting to see on the gas side is whether we're going to start using more on the dry gas, which is less dependent from the
oil price. So just the shields that are producing only gas, not associated oil, and in this case they are less dependent from the oil price.
So gas.
I thought gas kind of natural gas came out of oil wells and fracking and all that kind of stuff.
But there are separate sources of natural gas.
Civil engineering with Paul exactly, we're diving deep into this now.
So I'm talking mostly about shell gas right in the US, and you have shell oil too some of the depending on the bat sun the US, you get both shell shell oil and shell gas. And then when you're moving to different person you have only dry gas what we call dry gas gas and it's only gas.
In ten years is the United States of America energy independent ten years out fifteen years out?
So it depends the definition of energy in dependent. But right now the US is the largest oil and gas producer exporter globally.
See and that just happened like twenty sixteen. Up until like that, we were energy importers. Great and then thanks to the whole fracking technology, we're now net exporters.
Right. Yeah, that's awesome. This is thank you for this brief. To have Ed Morrison from our Heart treat and to have Leslie Palty Gozman and this has really been a wonderful week in hydrog.
Tommy how to watch Lambmann. You'll just you'll be all h I guess.
I'm watching slow horses. That's right, Okay, all right. Yeah. One of my kids said, you look like Jackson Lamb. I said, well, thank you. Uh, I'll watch Limban is it?
Yes, Yes, You're gonna love it.
Okay.
It's all about the energy.
Leslie Pault Gozman. Thank you so much, Vista Energy really really appreciated. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each week day starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty we.
Cut to the chase, joining us now for with a question our AI Conversation of the day, Jeffery Schumacher, I'm sorry, Ernstin Winnie Erstin Young Ey Growth Platforms leader at Ey Parthenon. You are in the depths of this and what I love about what you do. It's not about stupid chat bots and tech boys with eight dollars Latte, It's about what are companies going to do? What is Target going to do with your neuro symbolic ail Brooks? That nailed nailed it, nailed it, nailed it.
That's good.
Nsai.
Yes, to tell me, Like, what we have is a growth platform, right, so it takes enterprise data, it unifies it with other external sources, and it allows predictions around growth that enterprises and CEOs such as Target and Cornell back in the day can bank the bank their business?
Ow are they the audience is scared stiff about this? How many jobs are going to go? Do you guys have an euy parthenon? Do you have some what's going to do to the unemployment rate? Et cetera?
Will I think you got to look at the two sides of that that the medallion, right, there's one side around productivity where Jennai is there. The other side is growth. That's where Neurosymbolic plates. The growth is where you're going to activate a lot of jobs. Right. So if you have both sides, I think you might lose some on the productivity, but you're going to replace.
Okay, so Target's coming out with this headline. Do you see buried in that that they're quietly going to do what do you call it, Paul, synergies? Yeah, Duke, they call it synergies. They're doing synergies, but they're going to hire people on the other side of it.
I think I think you'll see the evolution of jobs to where these growth opportunities lie, and corporations that embrace the neuro symbolic side of this equation favors first movers.
Did I do? Okay, that's pretty good. That was all the viral brief I know, all right.
I think most of our listeners and viewers have some grasp of what AI is. It's an evolutionary thing. We're still learning. What is neurosymbolic AI.
Yeah, so if you look at the analysts, they'll tell you it's about two to five years away.
We have it today.
The neuro side of it is the unification of data to understand behavior, the symbolic side of the rules to which you look at.
That behavior, and how do companies use that?
So it focuses on their commercial model. Set another way for your listeners, how they make money? Okay, so, how they price, how they forecast, how they enter a market, how they create a new product, new service, how they buy something or divest.
Don't we hire?
Don't Those companies hire lots of MBAs to figure out how to price a product, how to market a product, how to account for that product.
Yes, and just like in pricing, you'll have MBAs that do regression models, but you regression, which is how you figure out what.
Is the right price?
Right, So are you pricing for margin or you're pricing for growth? Neurosymbolic can take, well, what market are you in, who are your competitive sets? What if the products don't line up? All of those things, which that tree of reasoning grows right, and neurosymbolic allows you to apply all of that and grab margin that you otherwise wouldn't get. We had one business. We created eight million an e BIT on a fifty million dollar business, and.
How many jobs exited in that example? It's more how many jobs created in that example on a net basis? Jobs or created.
Jobs are created on a net.
I mean, I'm going to be honest, folks, I'm in that camp, which is this is all going to end up? I said this at the CFA, Sorry last night at the Luzzetti building. I'm sorry. I'm in the camp where this is going to be net positive. X percent of my audience totally disagrees with what I said, Jeff, speak to the people's scared stiff that fourteen point two percent of every company's jobs are going to walk out the door.
Yes, So if you look at productivity, Tom, I agree with you. There are things that you're going to do faster and more. Now, if you're just doing that, you're going to reduction and jobs on that side. But on the other side, you're going to create jobs. I'll give you another one example a manufacturer, big equipment manufacturer.
John Deere. Good example, like, very similar. It's only when I know, so go with it, John Dear. What is neuro what's it called neurosymbolic? Hey, the red sox the neuro symbolic A. What is neuro symbolic? AI going to do to Puia Illinois?
I love that, John, So if you take John Deere, you can take telemetrics data, and you can take the financing data when they sell a machine, and you can apply that to OSHA data coming from the government. And guess what I can do for John Deere, Well, they
finance all their products. Well, now I can create an insurance on the bottom side or the backside of that, so they have a better By taking in telemetrics data, the machine data, OSHA data from the government telling you cite location construction, and then the financing data, I can build a better underwriting model than an insurance company.
I just created a whole.
New revenue line for John Deere, a whole set of new employees for John Deere, and a whole changing their margin mix and revenue mix of their business. Which if you change your margin profile, you change your ebitdebt profile, change the multiple, therefore your market capitalization. Right there, Tom, I just probably added thirty percent of the market cap at John Deere.
Nice.
Well, I'm just convinced that the first three or four years of my investment backing career can be completely replaced by AI. I mean, all I did is make pitch books and proofrea prospectuses, and that can all be done. When you go to the board of a company, I'm sure the board's asking, what's this return I should be getting on all these investments I've been making on AI over the last two or three years. How do you kind of frame that out for them? The return on AI investments.
Well, I think there's you got to understand there's two sides to that medallion. One side is productivity, there's your Genai and your Augentic, and the other side is growth. There is Neurosymbolic. So when you look at those two, you're going to have your productivity gains, which means you're going to be able to write emails faster, You're going to be able to do call center scripts faster, You're
gonna be able to do all thosings faster. Neurosymbolic is going to give you the precision to understand where the value is in market. And what we've seen with Neurosymbolic in the companies that we're working with using it, it favors dramatically first movers and tom to your example, you're going to go play moneyball, and you're going to when everybody else is buying players, you're buying wins, and you're buying wins by buying runs, and you're buying runs by
getting on base. And if you if you build that, you'll build a team for a fraction of the dollars and in two thousand and three, you win more games thannybody else in American League.
This sounds like a Brewers fan. So what can you mentioned medallion twice? If I get an Ey Parthenon medallion, can I convince after thought to empty the dishwasher this weekend? I mean, what side of them? What's a medalion?
Well, it's not a Medallion's just an example of the way to think about it. If you want to branch it into two, use me see another business term, mutually exclusive, collectively exhausted. One side is productivity, Jennai. The other side is growth in neurosymbolic.
Should we have them back, Lisa? What do you think?
I mean, my head is blown.
Yes, a successful visit and you know it would be scary Schumacher and Greg doco together. Oh yeah, that would be like scary, like the economics tied into the neurosymbolic AI the mathematics. Thank this is brilliant, Jeff Schumacher, Thank you so much. Outa Mauclair, Wisconsin and with ernstin Young Parthanon.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal