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So I was in London once for Thanksgiving, really, which is sort of strange. Yes, the Kensington in South Kensington. They're doing the full American thing here, plus a bourbon tasting in.
The k bar that sounds, and then you know, if.
You don't want to do that, you go to Chutney Mary over at Saint James, yep, where I love this, the Blueberry Cosmopolitan, the spiced Old Flat Fashion and Kerala roast duck or Lamb Curry. Joining us on this leave of Thanksgiving from London. Semashad joins us this morning. Is there like a Thanksgiving in London? I mean, is it like a happening thing?
Good?
Good morning Tom. It's becoming a thing.
So I remember ten years ago it wasn't, but certainly now I think everyone wants to celebrate every single American holiday.
Can I ask why?
Why?
I think any looks to joy?
All Right?
We woke up here.
You know, a few weeks ago we had a new administration coming in, a new president elected, We've got a Republican Congress seemingly pretty well in place.
Here.
Did that change the way you over in London and the principal global investors looked at the market broadly?
Actually, it didn't. And I think this is not so surprising in a way that it.
Didn't, because what we were thinking ahead of the election, and typically what you see through history is that it doesn't really change the narrative too much. But specifically in this election, what you did see it reinforced a narrative
that was already in play in that use exceptionalism. And I think the news that we've had since the election results were announced it has simply exaggerated and exacerbated that idea of use exceptionalism, where the rest of the world starts to struggle that the US really does prosper seem.
Are we creating a wall of worry?
The cardon rule is you don't go up unless there's a lot to worry about. It seems like there's a lot to worry about transition and politics and even in the investment world as well. Do you see a healthy wall of worry that can drive us higher.
I mean, I think that there are certainly worries I think there's a lot of reassurances there as well. Though, you know, if I think about fundamentals, which is really what's going to drive the market at least going into twenty twenty five, we know that the economy is looking really really sturdy and its growth is strong. The worries that are out there also do have the potential to
hit some of the fundamentals. So the tariffs could of course have an impact, but really primarily on the other countries, not so much from the US.
And then the other thing that we need to watch for, which does have a thin I.
Think a considerable risk ahead for risk houses is going to be what happens to inflation, and of course that is also related back into this policy proposal.
Paul Age thirty.
The second look, it's September thirty ending GDP survey on two point eight percent. Looking for that one more time here two point.
Eight percent exactly that I'm becoming an eight thirty time Simah, what do you think this US Federal Reserve is going to do in December and heading into twenty twenty five? Because boy, the economic data coming out of the US seems you know, I guess, pretty starn solid.
Absolutely. I think that they have been surprised.
I clearly when they cut by fifty basis points in September, they were not expecting the economy to be this strong, Otherwise they wouldn't have gone in such a magnitude. We are expecting that to be another cut in December, though, and that is the idea that they just want to kind of very gradually move.
Towards a less restrictive perspective.
I think there are a couple of risks in the economy, mainly around the low income consumers and some niggles around the small businesses which could start to get worse if they don't get some assistance. But come January, you know, because of the over strength of the economy, over strength of the labor market, plus the potential risk of upside.
Inflation moves next year.
To me, that says that they need to tread a little bit more cautiously. So I think come January they moved to a more gradual pace, so that means moving every other meeting, and there is certainly a potential for a higher flaw than what markets in the FED.
We're expecting just a couple of months ago.
Seem Shaw I ninety five. You're popping from Boston down to New York today. Drive from Hell, New York up to Boston. Further, drive from Hell halfway up. Just pass Gritton. You know where the submarines are part Yeah, just pass GrITT and Seema Shaw. There's the argument over the four to oh one. Ke, dear, what are we going to do with our underperforming dog? What do you do to reallocate a dog retirement plan?
In America?
God, it's such a good question. I think that that is such a headache for so many people. What do you do with your retirement plan? Especially at these kind of valuations. So from our perspective, beget and really think about the fundamentals.
Markets are expensive, but there is still some.
Opportunity ahead when you start to think about earnings, when you think about the growth trajectory. We do need to be a little bit careful though, because there are as we said, there's risk on the rise, and so it really doesn't argue for some kind of diversification like.
Me, give me, don't give me your time.
I get your strategist, you're not going to do that, But what's the Sema Shaw allocation?
For the couple just east.
Of Graten heading up to Boston and there's silence in the car, what's the what's the principal allocation?
So we're thinking mainly on US equities.
From an equity perspective, you're looking globally that you want to have some exposure to some other markets like India and Japan. We would be staying fairly clear of Europe and China for the time being. Then from a fixed income perspective, I know fixing income is a little bit of a harder story at the moment because, as it is,
money market funds are delivering so much. But we do think that there's an opportunity to extend your duration a little bit, start to think about investment grade, even high yield because the backdrop is quite strong.
So there are opportunities.
And then the other thing is, and this is really important, is that there has to be some kind of exposure to real assets. As I said before, the risk on the horizon is really around inflation. You want to have some kind of inflation protection in your portfolios. So whether that's real estate, commodities, there has to be some kind of resilience within the portfolio as well.
See m Kevin on YouTube Live chat says tell Seman to go to the JP Morgan Thanksgiving lunch.
Oh in London, Sally.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter. Listen on Apple car Play and and brout Otto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
I was talking with their booking team and I said, look, we got to get Bremer in Ian Bremer and Eurasia group, of course with their ten top ten risks for twenty twenty five. They're putting that together right now, but really we wanted to get an ample, commercial free conversation with doctor Bremer, and we do that this morning. It's our
gift to you across this nation. I I go back to your books, and I know you put one of your older books out on social media the other day of the tumult of twenty twenty four, the news that we saw overnight of some solution north of Tel Aviv into Lebanon. Can that be the first calming influence into two thousand and twenty five.
I think near term we are.
Going to see some calming influences in the sense that Trump wants to end wars and he's prepared to use a significant amount of US political pressure and military pressure.
To get those outcomes. There's no question in my mind that a ceasefire with Hesbelah was related to the election. In part, it was delayed because the Israeli Prime Minister didn't want to give Biden Harris a win. In part it came quickly because they recognize that continuing to fight that war when Trump is in power is something that they were going to feel pressure over and they wanted
to avoid it. And next, of course is going to be Russia Ukraine, and I'm sure you're gonna want to talk about that.
Oh, we had lots to talk about in this ample time, and we really treasure it.
How will shuttle diplomacy of Secretary Rubio will be different than Secretary Blincoln.
It'll be less frequent. Rubio's top priority from an experienced perspective, and also in terms of the lane that he gets to occupy by himself, will be Latin America. It'll be Cuba, it'll be Venezuela, it'll be Mexico. More broadly, the region,
and you know, I think he'll be credible there. And by the way, I think he'll probably also appoint bipartisan congressional delegations Senate delegations and send them to some of these countries and others, which is something that has hadn't gone as quickly as I would have liked under Biden.
But on the Middle East, this, I mean, we're following what has been the most pro Israel government in the world, the Biden administration, with what will be an even more pro Israel government under Trump, by far, the most pro Israel government in US history, and that is that clearly is going to have an impact on Israeli settlements and annexation in the West Bank, It'll have an impact on the future of Gaza, and it will continue to put
a hell of a lot of pressure on Iran. So I wouldn't look to Rubio to be the person that's going to lead that diplomatically, if simply because Trump's best relations in the world. And you'll remember Tom the first trip he took as president in twenty seventeen was to Saudi Arabia and then to Israel, very unusually for a US president. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the first trip he makes this time around is all sorts of the Middle East.
So I does this ceasefire agreement with Hesbolah does that vode well for potential ceasefire with Hamas? What are the relations of any I.
Don't think it matters much. I mean, it certainly puts Hamas under even more pressure, but it's hard to put Hamas under more pressure than they're already on. I mean, the Israeli Prime Minister said yesterday, well, now they know they're not going to get a support from Hesbelah. Support from hes Bolah hasn't stopped Hamas's tunnels from all getting blown up, their arms, cachets from getting blown up, their leaders from getting blown up, their fighters from getting blown up.
I mean, frankly, the Israelis are running out of targets in Gaza at this point. So, I mean, the war has been winding down. The only reason it's not over is because there are still hostages that are being held by Hamas, and of course we don't know how many of them are still left alive. But I mean it's
not like that. You have far fewer people getting killed in Gaza today than war six months ago, nine months ago, and the reason for that is because it's just not that much more for Israel to hit that is a productive Hamas target. So I think it I don't think it does matter all that much. I think where the hes Blah ceasefire matters is it is you know, it's clearly welcome for Iran because it is a ceasefire that
does not aim to end Hesbelah's capabilities. Israel is basically saying that they are not prepared to blow up every single Hesbela member to end their military capabilities, and of course this is Iran's top proxy in the world and it's their principal deterrent against Israel. Well, Israel's prepared to allow them to continue to exist despite their military escalation dominance. So that's where I think it matters. Gaza not so much.
I were speaking with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurrasier Group, getting a reset on global geopolitics. A lot happening in the Middle East and Ukraine. Ian, what is the position of Prime Minister Benjamin Etyahu with his people with Israel? Is he still as strongly entrenched as he appears to be.
He's much more strongly entrenched than he has been at any point in the last year. You'll remember, before the October seventh terrorist attacks, there's a lot of Israel in the news because of massive demonstrations against Nat Yahoo's government for his efforts to get out from underneath his own legal problems and try to control what is a very independent judy. Then his popularity erode even further because he was seen as responsible for allowing October seventh to happen
on his watch. Well, it's a very different situation now. It is military successes against Hamas, political and military leaders both assassinated under Nan Yahoo. It is Lebanon and has bellowed vastly more powerful than Hamas being completely defanged by his war of choice in Lebanon. I mean these are military victories. The cease fire comes with success political and
military success by the Israelis. So I think that if there were an election in Israel today, obviously it would still be a coalition government because the political party system is so fragmented. But I think Not Yahoo would have a relatively easy time in putting a coalition together.
Our Thanksgiving treat to you, Ian Bremmer with us for this entire half hour or commercial free nationwide. Good morning on YouTube around the world. It's our new digital distribution. Doctor Bremer, you came out of the housing projects in Chelsea, Massachusetts. You took a PhD at Stanford. I think of the vicinity of twenty four years old, the dissertation the Politics of Ethnicity Russians in the Ukraine. I mean talk about getting out front of the topic of.
The day Ian.
What drew you to the Russians in the Ukraine at the ripe old age of twenty four.
Well, I mean the Soviet Union collapsing. Suddenly fifteen countries became independent and there were lots of Russians in those countries. You'll remember back then, one of the people that we talked about the most. This was after Frank Fukuyama End
of History. It was Samuel Huntington Clash of civilizations, And what was a very popular theory was that what was going to replace the Cold War was going to be civilization clash, and it was gonna be Muslims versus Christians, not Muslims versus Muslims, Muslims versus Christians, all these civilizational clashes. And what I saw happening in the Soviet Union was that one of the places that seemed to be the most problematic, and that was likely to cause the most
long term conflict. Was not Russians versus Muslim Kazakhs or Azaris or Uzbek's. It was Russians versus culturally identical Ukrainians. Similar language, similar religion, similar history, similar land. But you know, I was traveling in Crimea and I was meeting these Russians that are like, no, this is our land. This has nothing to do with Ukraine and southeast Ukraine where it was heavily contested, and then places like Kiev and
Leviv in the west. And I mean these were European Ukrainians who felt European, who were closer to Poland's and we want nothing to do. We want independent country. Even though there was intermarriage at that point, even though a lot of people in Kiev didn't necessarily know, you know, who was Ukrainian and who was Russian on the street, but around the country people certainly did so. Thirty years ago, it was very clear that this was going to be
a serious long term problem. And of course, starting in twenty fourteen and now again today, this turns out to be one of them had pivots.
Let's get out let's get out funny into your top ten risks for twenty twenty five. We have a some form of Chicago Tribune isolationist Middle America President elect.
He wants to get this fixed in Ukraine.
Now, what in the zeitgeist right now are we getting wrong about Ukraine giving all your academic commitment to it. What's going to be the surprise in the next year.
Well, one is that the last time that President Trump ended a war, it was in Afghanistan. He gave away the store to the Taliban, but he didn't have to do the cleanup that was for Biden. This time around, the deal that is cut by Trump, he's going to be responsible for for four years. And so I think he's aware of that, and I wonder I like, yes, he really wants to end the war. He's got a
lot of capacity to pressure the Ukrainians. But the presumption in the media and the zeitgeist, as you say, is that Trump is going to give away the store to Putin And I don't think that's true. I don't think he wants a situation where Ukraine can be completely run over and undermined by Russia. I think he's gonna want a Ukraine that the war is over, Russia's still in the occupied territory they have now there's no way to
get them out of it. But Ukraine has the ability to defend themselves and prevent Russia from taking more territory. So that's not an easy deal to get done with Putin. And I think if there's a place where Trump is going to be more flexible then the Europeans want. Certainly, I think it's going to be on the economics side. I think Putin really would like to see an end to sanctions, and I think Trump is prepared to give
that to him. It'll be very interesting to see how the Europeans respond to that, and do they respond to it in a unified way or do they break down. That to me is where people are getting it wrong in my view.
Ian what's the role of Zelenski and the Ukrainian people in this whole process? Assuming president like Trump wants to push a peace movement forward.
Look, they recognize that they need to end this war. They're losing much more territory in the last week than they've lost in any week since the beginning of the war, and I expect that to continue. The Russians are going to press this for the next couple of months until Trump becomes president, and the Ukrainian position is likely to look a lot worse when inauguration hits than it does right now. So I mean, yeah, you've got the permissioning
to use long range missiles. That doesn't help them strategically on the ground. Particularly. That's why Biden dragged his feet on it to begin with, because it wasn't gonna matter very much. So look, Celenski frankly needs an excuse to stop the bleeding, and it is ending. The war is more popular now in Ukraine than it was a year ago, two years ago, but he can't be seen as losing his country. So again, a lot of this has to do with what Trump and his team is going to
come in and say. And you know, the Trump advisory group, the Cabinet coming in. Let's leave aside Tulsey Gabbert, who is an outlier, but it wouldn't be seen in this position as driving the outcome. You know, it is going to be pretty hawkish in support of Ukraine. So I think there's still a great deal to watch here. I don't think it's right. I don't think this is giving away the score and undermining Zelenski completely right.
Ian Bremer with it's just thrilled to have them on here for almost a whole half hour, commercial free through the economic data churn to the market, the Sweeney yield four point two to one percent, the two year yield in five basis points. I look at the ten year real yield that's in five basis points one point ninety seven percent. I want to go back to a book I in that you feature the other day US Versus Them, the failure of Globalism.
You steal a.
Line from Raghu Rajan out at booth you go. The fault Lines is one chapter three of US Versus Them?
Where's the fault line? Right now?
In our trade policy forward? Lightheiser is not on board, but I guess we have a new trade policy. Witnessed the news the other day. Where is the unknown fault line we need to pay attention to?
Well, there are two, as you note from Trump's first efforts at making paula see as president elect. You've got the ally fault line, where he expects, you know, deals, and then you've got the adversary fault line where he expects deals and and Trump doesn't necessarily treat them as
all that different. I mean, it was less than an hour between him posting that there's going to be new tariffs against Mexico and Canada unless they give him satisfaction and when he said the same thing about China unless the Chinese provides satisfaction. So those are tom Those are two very very different fault lines.
But to me, Paul, this is really important, doctor Bremer. To me, what's so simplistic? Heure China US versus them, Canada US versus.
Them, Golden Sex.
I believe it was in think of Zero Edge had a brilliant note out on what about Vietnam? I mean, Ian, are we amateur in naive that we don't understand how complex this debate is?
Are we?
Or?
Is true?
I think all of us within our discussion is just so easy to be by transactional in to be bipartisan where it's still a multilateral world?
Am I wrong?
I think it's important to react to the policymakers that are driving policy, and Trump is already occupying that role, and he chose to go after Canada, Mexico and China, and he does not see tariffs through a uniquely economic lens. He sees tariffs as the principal tool by which the United States gets outcomes that it wants in foreign policy.
I mean, in his first administration, it is true that he used tariffs to try to make America great again in places like steel, right, and he also used it to try to get the Japanese and South Koreans to pay more for their defense the United States. He used it in Mexico to talk about immigration. In his post
the other day, he was talking about fentanyl. And it wouldn't surprise me if those posts came right on the back of Trump watching some Fox News segment showing how horrible fentanyl is in the United States and he's like, I got to do something about that. I'm gonna go and hit the Mexicans and the Canadians and the Chinese. So it's not as if Trump is using tariffs purely to redress economic problems, although clearly he does care about trade deficits. It's far far broader than that.
Right now, and it just we're starting to see this cabinet kind of shake out here. From your perspective, the way you view the world is or anything that kind of jumps out of you, either positive or negative.
Gets jumped out at me as uniquely negative. There were a solid seven hard nos among Republican senators to get him out. And what I thought was interesting was that Trump allowed him to be thrown under the bus immediately, didn't put up a fight. It's an amazing thing about Trump is that when he decides that he's no longer interested, it's gone, it's gone. He doesn't dwell on losses. He like, you know, you'll never hear about it again. Right. I
thought it was also interesting something that didn't happen. Howard Lutnick, who Elon Musk, was pushing internally and there were leaks against that from Trump's advisors, and then he pushed publicly and within forty eight hours Lutnik didn't get Treasury. So that was interesting, right. I mean, this is in other words, and I haven't seen JD. Vance have much influence at all in terms of appointees. So Trump is making these decisions. Gets.
The Gets decision was made initially without Trump's chief of staff even knowing about it, Susie Wiles. So I mean, this isn't maybe what you were asking, but I mean I'm pointing to a whole bunch of things that didn't happen where I think we're getting information. Certainly there are still outliers in terms of people that really don't they shouldn't be in the positions that they're in. Tulsi's one, I mean doctor Oz, for Christ's sake, RFK Junior, Pete Haigseth.
But but these are not authoritarians. And frankly, these are not people who I see as strategically or even structurally corrupt. They're just people that are that are fundamentally incompetent and unfit for the jobs. And there aren't that many of them.
Most of the people that he's appointing are people that I would consider to be at least marginally capable, and some of them, like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio are strongly capable.
So you know, it's at least a B minus your cabinet.
So far, I need an A plus.
Ian, I need you to do the twenty top risks for twenty twenty five.
Get to work.
There seem to be some topers out there. Ian Bremer with us, What a great way to start the holiday season. Doctor Bremer, of course at Eur Razor Group, can't say enough about his books. One out a couple of years ago. We got to look for the next book to come out as well.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
He shows up from Case Capital Management. I guess we should talk to Whitney Tilson about private equity, private investment, Global Macro, except he's changed the script. Whitney Tilson is decided to run for mayors. John Tucker just mentioned it is a crowded field as well. He will run as a Democrat in this New York City. Whitney, You've climbed the Matterhorn. You know it's not K two the East Face, but your mister Mountain. I've looked from Zermatt over at
the Matterhorn and going you've got to be kidnaping. This mayor's race is going to be tougher than the matter Horn, tougher than anything you crime. You've done. You've climbed. How are you going to find a distinctive voice on the worry of crime in New York City and quite frankly across this nation.
You know, I am speaking more broadly, just about a distinctive voice, not just on crime. But there is no business person in the field. In fact, you said it's a crowded field, and I don't know. I guess a half dozen people sounds crowded. But I'm the only person who's not a career politician in the field. So I'm a lifelong Democrat, been super active in the party for the last twenty years. But ever since Mayor Bloomberg left.
Look at what's happened to our city in the last eleven years with some combination of career politicians de Blasio and Adams, the last two mayors, who are some combination of corrupt, incompetent, and beholden to the radical left. And so I'm concerned about my city. I share the view of the majority of New Yorkers that the city's had in the wrong direction. I want to turn it around.
I should mention that former Mayor Bloomberg, of course, is part of Bloomberg Lpan drives a ship every morning for Bloomberg surveillance in Bloomberg Radio worldwide Whitney Tilson. Mister Bloomberg had ample funds to prosecute a campaign. What is the initial support you've seen if you don't have the Bloomberg checking account.
Right, Well, every candidate has to decide whether to take city matching money or self bund mayor. Bloomberg spent seventy three million dollars of his own money to win his first race for mayor.
And then serve two more terms.
Of course, I, like every other candidate in the race, is going to take advantage of an extraordinary matching program. But we have to adhere to a seven point nine million dollars total spend for the primary, and the same for the general whoever wins the primary, seven point nine million dollars. And by the way, if we adhere to that, all all candidates, if we take up to two hundred and fifty dollars for New York City residents, it's matched
eight to one. So any New York City resident who gives me two hundred and fifty bucks, my campaign gets two thousand on top of that. And so I plan to take full advantage of that and try and raise as much money from New York City residents.
And what's great about that, Paul Sweeney is John Tucker's congestion tax payment each day will be two hundred and fifty dollars. Away's crossing across sixtieth Street.
All right, Whitney, let's go to that. What's your view on congestion pricing, because that's become a political football.
I know, I'm all in favor of it. I think we should be doing the opposite of what this country has been doing for the last you know, fifty years, which is subsidizing driving and charging for public transportation. We should be doing the reverse. You know, I've traveled the world and I've been to Singapore and there is there is not a single bit of traffic to any kind
of traffic jam in Singapore. Why because they congestion price basically the whole city, and anytime there's rush hour traffic down a particular street, they just raised the price until the traffic is gone. I think people who oppose congestion pricing are thinking about the cost of it wrong. It's not the nine dollars of the fifteen dollars that's really
costing people. It's sitting in traffic for an hour, burning expensive gas and wasting your time and I want to get rid of all of that in New York City.
All right, let's talk about housing costs. I mean, for most New Yorkers, it is a constant challenge. Quite frankly, it's been the constant challenge as long as I can remember. Is there a solution? Is there a way to reduce that burden on average New Yorkers?
Yes, although there's no magic bullet that's going to immediately bring down housing costs. This is built up over a long period of time. And it's a classic example of what I as a lifelong Democrat and running against, which is I'm a sensible center. We need to build more housing. Vacancy rate in New York cities down to one point four percent. And the problem is is nobody's been able to build new housing because of primarily bureaucratic regulations and
so forth, but also these incredibly onerous zoning rules. The radical lefty Nimby types, not in my backyard types, have taken a good idea, which is sensible zoning, and taken it to an extreme. When you have sort of a one party control of the city, often extremists get their agenda. Over the years, all these zoning rigs have built up so to its credits. The city Council last week finally passed a watered down built to slightly ease these zoning issues.
I'm going to really push hard on that because we need a lot more housing and that will bring the price down.
Wennie Tilson, our listeners and viewers nationwide, indeed worldwide when they go through JFK visit New York and they notice a different and absolutely unique police force. Jessica Tish takes over as a new commissioner for Mayor Adams. What will the Tilson NYPD look like if you're elected as a Democratic mayor?
Yeah, well, I can boil it down into six words. Big picture, Let police do their fricking jobs. That's the big picture. And three words of that is the opposite, which is deep on the police, which are the three dumbest words of all time. So again, that's what the radical left has been pushing and handcuffing our police. So let me give three bullet points. Number one, prime of
violent crime in particular is not random. If you look at all the one hundred thousand plus city blocks in New York, fifty percent of violent crime person only three point five percent of those blocks and it's a single apartment building or a single block where there's open air drug dealing, you know, like in Washington Square Park for example. In those areas, the police working with the local community. You can't have the police come in as some invading force,
you know, oppressing local residents. It's the law abiding local residents in these areas that are being terrorized by criminals. That so you form the zone, you declare a state of emergency, and you put more police in, not less, working with the communtry. So that would be number one.
Number two is is we've got to roll back part of the sanctuary city legislation that the radical left passed under Deblasio that don't allow our local officials when they arrest an illegal immigrant committing crimes, they should be on the they should be turned off iceon on the next flight back to their home country. And that's not happening.
Okay, Whitney, We've got to leave it there.
We're out of time, but we look forward to having you back on again, as we will many other candidates within this New York City mayor race, including Prahaps We'll try to get on again. Eric Adams are President Mayor mister Kilson running as a democrat in a crowded field to say the leaves.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
What a joy and honor to have Dana Telsea in studio right now here as we slide into the holiday season. She lived the fabric of retail New York City. The other day, Milan Dana Telsea, I guess is bigger now than Fifth Avenue, but there's still Fifth Avenue a dominant on Fifth Avenue.
Lewis Viwton is blowing up the building. What are they gonna build?
What is the Arnault family gonna build at fifty seventh Street in Fifth Avenue?
What's gonna be amazing? And Tom, thank you so much for having me today. It's a pleasure to be here. Let's talk about and show people what they're doing on Fifth Avenue. Trunks that go up seven stories tall as they and capture the building so that they tear it down and build it up again. It's a seven year build, and across the street they have the Louis Vuitton store in the former Tiffany Con temporary sell So it's going to be what I hear office and it's going to
be an amazing retail store. When you think about what opened in Paris, it feels like that's going to be New York. And when you look at what everyone's doing, the social media that's going on of everyone taking pictures of those trunks, whether tourists or locals, it's absolutely awesome.
To me.
The absolute seismic change is Paul I can enjoy for twenty four six hundred dollars the Alhambra's secret pendant watch night at Van Klief.
Across the street.
You know what, you know it well through a firm.
This to me is ginormous in the luxuries finally getting the way Americans shop.
I think there's some of that. I think some of it's unique to Van Cleef. Also, I think some brands like Ermez, you're only seeing it walk in and out of the store and online where you need that relationship with that sales associate. But companies like the Bergdorf, Goodman's and other luxury brands they're innovating for today because they need the shopper who's going to be there tomorrow.
Also, all right, so Tom's shopping at Van Cleef and got whatever?
Blah blah.
What are the rest of us doing? How retail sales going to be? How is holiday shopping shaping up this year?
I think the holiday season is going to be respectable. When you think about the increase. Could it be three to three and a half percent versus four point six percent last year? You couple have a couple of ticks and ties, a compressed holiday season, five fewer days. I don't know about you, but whether it's my text or my emails, I'm getting discounts school more of what the promotions are going to be. So it will be more promotional this year than last year. And you know, experiences
still matter. You look at people now going out to dinner Triloka Travel, which has shown huge increases. It's important to say the wow factor and what else is going to work? Whether it's the closed toad shoes at Birkenstock, whether it's the value of the off pricers GJX and Walmart. Look where Walmart's biggest games are coming from. Some of their higher income consumers.
How do the retailers have what they need on the on the shelves.
Are they fully stopped? Are they ready to go?
I think they're ready to go. I think they've been ready to go. Definitely, tariffs, when you think about the future, that's an impact. Everyone's tried to diversify their exposure to China, but look, it's coming on other places now too. At the end of the day, whatever these tariffs will be, there's only so much retailers can absorb themselves, and that will be a headwind for consumers if prices move up.
Joseph I Feldman has killed it on Walmart along to see's not alone but.
Mere mortals like me. Dana look at Walmart with the thirty five multiple and go.
I didn't learn this from Dana Telsey at bear Stearns a million years ago. How do you justify the price to earnings, price to cash flow, price to sales ratio of revenue growers per year?
One of the things that you have to look at when going back to my Ron Barren days, who is my mentor who I learned from? The competitive mode that a business develops gives them the opportunity to scale. Look what Walmart is doing. Walmart today is not the Walmart of yesterday. You look at their other revenues from other
business lines that are growing extensively. Look at their sixty percent of sales that are coming from essentials, and frankly, look what they're doing with both the digital channel and the physical channel, coupled with what they've got globally. So what Don McMillan has done has moved the business forward, and that competitive mode is only getting stronger.
What is the e commerce versus in store ratio these days? I mean, I know that the pandemic kind of pulled a lot of that market share towards e commerce. Are we reset it to normal here?
I think overall? You look what Norstrom reported yesterday, around thirty four percent of their sales came from e commerce. You still have faster growth than e commerce because it's smaller than what you have in physical But one of the things that's happened, the pandemic allowed the physical channel to reset, and it allowed the physical channel to reset because they closed stores and now they're investing in their stores. Look at the new flagships that are opening here in
New York. Aritzia is one of the stores I'm going to tomorrow because they just open their next.
Door and so hoo oh, would you like to step in your at least you can tag along with in the closed toe Birkenstocks.
We are set exactly. You're gonna buy your puffer at Aritzia and we're your closed toe Birkenstocks.
What's your single best idea? I mean, the charm of Dana Telsea is the chat on women's boots, but also we got to make money. Do you make money with a value trap now that's finally going to turn around and move or do you go on board something that's already moving.
What's your single best idea?
I want to go what's moving and working. I want to look at Ralph Lauren. I want to look at Birkenstock. I want to keep going with TJX. That's where I think some of the winners are.
Min and a half bull amount of time on Bloomberg surveillance. How does Dana Telsey turn around the train wreck that is Doc Martin's a.
Lot of work to do. It all comes to product. What are they going to put out that's going to capture the awareness of the consumer that goes on social media in order to drive interest. They're not there yet. And Birkenstock is you know.
Where she got some of her training back in the day.
C J.
Lawrence again going to our theory, Tom and I have him a by c J. Lawrence.
Some of the best research channalysts for.
Decades came out of the shop.
C J.
Lawrence. Nobody knows about it.
You grew up as a child.
A magical childhood is literally like Eloise at the plaza at Bergdorf Goodman.
Where is Bergdorf Goodman in ten years?
I think we're still going to have her Bergdorf Goodman today. I think the relationships and the partnerships with the designers are more important than ever. But you know what else matters? Service? I think when I think about twenty twenty five and beyond about the letter s, service and social, I think service matters to keep the customer there. I think social matters because you have to engage whether digitally or physically, and really shows the personalization.
Did you see the new look on Apple TV? The magical movie about Door.
I'm going to go check it out that tomorrow.
What do you or you should see him over in fifthemth they're putting up this light show right now. It's like a gajillion dollars in that. What's mister arnaulnu Jacks. What does mister Arnauld purchase?
That'll be very interesting to see what he purchases. You heard that giving he purchased a little bit of Montclair that Montclair was potentially looking at Burbery. And I would have thought mister Arnault would purchase Bergdorf because I think that would allow him to have all four corners of fifty seventh Street.
Oh can you?
She brings the conversation a bar to a complete as out, telling Dana Telsey honored to have you in here the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. She's that kind of course.
The Telsey Advisory Group. And it's not just Dana.
Joe Feldman writing heard as well, Big box all the way over to a firm the luxury provider of your choice.
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