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Tina Fordham has been a huge benefit to us geopolitical strategist for him Global Foresight.
Tina, just a window into this. How did you end.
Up with Ibraham Robari? The guy is a triple a horse at City Group. He's out there. How did you and Ibrahim Robari get together?
Well, aberm and I.
Work together on William Bowder's Global Macro team, and is our immense good fortune to have him working with us as a senior advisor.
So I'm absolutely thrilled.
Just absolutely wonderful. I want to take a bigger, broader approach here. And you go into the wonderful work up of Harvard the book, folks, it really became part of international relations. How democracies die. Stephen Levitsky and Daniels iblet up at Harvard and you pick up their phrase norm erosion and say we're living it?
What norm erosion? Tina Fordham? Are we going to see next year, well, we're.
Already seeing it.
And this is part of my you know, my my pledge to try to prevent us from seeing all of these you know, disparate developments as idiosyncratic and one off. Norm erosion can be everything from why our nieces and nephews don't send us thank you notes for Christmas presents, to the role of unelected advisors in the White House to the end of kind of customs. Norms are not
necessarily rule. There's certainly not laws, and I'm going to argue that they matter as much to our ability to conduct business as laws do.
So for twenty twenty five, Tina given norm erosion, geopolitical denihalism is another theme. I know you're focused on, what are your themes for twenty twenty five for investors as I think about geopolitics and the impact on markets.
I'm not sure how many investors want to think about geopolitics because we've already seen the you know, the euphoria you know now tempered to focus on the positive aspects of Trump's agenda deregulation, and these are you know, these are no doubt going to be positive, They're going to be especially positive for US markets. But as you know,
I'm based in London. I have coined the concept of geopolitical denialism, borrowing a little bit from climate denihilism, and I'm suggesting that this is like being a flat earther when it comes to thinking about geopolitics, because take the example of Syria, not a market moving event, nor one that we would expect to be, but it's the second
and third order effects of geopolitics that matter. So times are good in US markets, But I'm suggesting developments like Trump's recent comments, shall we say, questioning the validity of Greenland belonging to Denmark and the Panama Canal belonging to Panama are important.
They are significant.
They're not going to move markets, but they are extremely important because they suggest challenges to the rules of the game and indeed something potentially more significant, And they're also big geostrategic implications.
Those are not two random choices.
For investors in just markets in general. Does that suggest over the next year, if not four years, maybe investors kind of rein in some of the risk taking because some of the geopolitics, maybe emanating from the US White House could be really problematic.
I think You're going.
To see a lot of changes in stance, a lot of developments that maybe more behind the scenes than say an.
Event risk like a terrorist attack or a hot war.
What would the US need to do to, as Trump would put it, regain control of the Panama Canal? Could this be done through non military means? I think looking at what military strategists called gray zone actions, which can be commercial, they can be legal, and through kind of salami tactics can really change the facts on the ground. Right now, Russia and China have made clear that they don't believe that US hedge of money should continue. And
what means will they use for that? Maybe more important to your question for our CEO clients, for anyone with a complex supply chain. But these are big, great power challenges being played out through these small places.
Tina Fordham with is Fordham Global Foresight here as we look at international relations into next Yearatina, just a question that came up this weekend. I think it's an amateur I'm saying, there's a presidential tradition of giving ambassadors to people that gave.
You a lot of money to get elected. Get it.
In all that, how do you, as a grizzled pro respond to the ambassador's selections we're seeing from President elect Trump. We got a football player in the Bahamas, we got a father in law son in law kind of thing in Paris, and on and on.
How do you respond? And is it just business usual?
Is there something different going on in our ambassadorships?
First of all, I would like to reject the characterization of myself as grizzled on anything pro.
Yes, I missrizzled, grizzled you know you can, yeah, Lisa later.
And I said it, and Lisa threw a gluten free role at me.
You're thank you, Lisa, Thank you, Lisa. Someone we have to stick up for each other. But oh right, So what's this getting on? That there's a lot of eye rolling going on? You know.
The expectation is that UK US and France, US and German US relations, you know, will continue, even if there is someone less than a grizzled old pro in the ambassadorship.
It hasn't always been the case, by the way that.
Donors were awarded these plum kinds of post. I mean, I'm thinking about people Pamela Harriman and Paris and others, but Europe is not pushing back on any of this, and you know, taking a stoic approach because you have to choose your battles. Everyone wants to work with this administration, and we will see just how robust the you know, the relationships are and the channels of communication and the areas of cooperation.
Tina, as we kind of think about twenty twenty five, what are the what's maybe the key question you're getting from your clients these days about your remit, which is again geopolitics.
It couldn't be more broad. It is what's going to happen because.
You know, again at the you know, purely at the market level, everyone you know buys the positive story, but there's a lot of worry about what could possibly go wrong. And even you know, tracking and monitoring risks as we do, there are so many wild cards. And that's you know, got to be part of the playbook here to kind of sow discontent and confusion.
I'm looking a lot.
At these small data points, developments that don't grab headlines, like why is the Slovak president Robert Fico in Moscow?
Hello?
That is not something that the European Union agrees with. It's not a game changer. In the narrowest sense. But when you combine that with Hungarian President Victor Ravon seeing Putin, what's been happening in Romania, none of these you know, major economies. It adds up to Leaveridge that Putin has though, because these countries are all on the receiving end or were of Russian gas supplies.
So if we wait until old blown.
Event risk transpires, then we're not prepared for these downside surprises.
Tina, thank you so much.
Tina Fordham with his Fordum Global Foresight.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
We're thrilled to get smarter with andrews Slimon.
Had a love come on applied to equity advisors.
I don't have no idea that is at Morganeselli. What Andrew Slimon.
Will give you as the courage to participate in the market. Andrew, how do we get to a third double digit bull market year?
Well, I think you have a combination of lower rates. Seven trillion sitting in the money markets that will search for a new home or some of it will and pro growth policies, and that's how you could get to another double digit year for the equa market.
I look at it and as double digit earnings. Here Gena Martin Adams of Bloomberg Intelligence talking up fourteen percent. Maybe it comes down to the security analysts at Morgan Stanley get you to a double digit earnings growth year.
Yeah, I mean, I you know. One of the things Tom, that you know I've been on your show a lot. I have been all pretty optimistic the last couple of years is that it's not about valuation. It's about the direction of the change. And what's you know. I tell you know, especially younger investors all the time, be very wary of valuate pure valuation tools as a methodology to evaluate the stock market or a stock is cheap or extensive, because
sometimes analysts don't get the denominator the estimate right. And really what's been going on in the last couple of years is earnings have been stronger than what is expected so far we have. I've seen a lot of predictions that earnings are too strong for next year, but I haven't seen those numbers come down yet. Uh and that you know that does that's that falls into the positive camp.
I mean, Paul, that's Andrew Slayman says, Look, you got to participate.
Yep, go to cash. It's not going to work.
Not gonna work. Hey, Andrew, we've got the FED cutting rates.
But now it looks like in twenty twenty five at a slower pace than maybe the market had been anticipating. How does that impact your view of the equity market.
Yeah, I think this is good news, good news. And let me articulate why. What I have been worried about is if you look at what's worked since July when the FED said they're going to start to cut weight, what has worked in the market is the is the low quality what I would call junk growth stocks. A lot of companies that don't you know, have high revenue estimates, but nowhearn are very little earning very high multiples. High. The more risk you have taken in the last six months,
the better you have done. And that's a that scares me because that screens of the year twenty twenty one, and we know what happened in twenty twenty two. The market fell apart, so to the extent that I think the FED has kind of encouraged that risk taking by saying, hey, we're going to cut rates. If they say, hey, you know what, we're going to go a little slower, good rates going up. That takes the heat out of the
bubble that I think is occurring in the specostock. I think that's healthy for the stock market in many ways, might extend the bull market longer than just twenty twenty one.
And just slimon with us and we will continue with them. He's with Morgan Stanley.
Of course, we're.
Welcome all of you accross the nation, if you're working, if you're computing, Apple CarPlay, Android Auto, of course, Serious x M Channel one twenty one, Good Morning, Bloomberg Television worldwide and on YouTube, all of our distribution on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts.
It's the only way to observe Lisa Mateo. It's a constructive.
Exercise, to say the least. And a slimon. Last week we had in the Giant a free cash flow.
You and I read.
Free cash Flow and Shareholder Yield with William Priest of Epic.
It was iconic.
Then, how do you study free cash flow? In this great bullmarket. What's the Slimon method.
Well, I'm you know, it's interesting. I hear a lot of people come on shows like this and talk about how you have to have expansion beyond the MAG seven and how it's dangerous that these socks are very high weighting the S and P and I certainly agree with that. But at the end of the day, these are the companies.
If I look at what's worked, undation from a kind of factor stapwork, corporate buybacks, companies that are buying back socking brass, many more general outperformed, and that's the big boys. So to the extent that your question about cash flow, I look and say, well, what companies are generating a lot of cash flow? It's some you know, some of the best are these really big companies. So I would I think one of the most consensus trades for next year is that the market's going to expand beyond the
MAG seven. And I think there's plenty of good ideas beyond MAG seven. But don't go you have to face the reality these companies are generally a lot of cash flow and they're buying backstock, and that is positive. That's a big difference toime to nineteen ninety nine, two thousand and now.
Thank you so much.
Andrew Simon with this Morgan Stanley this morning on the Courage to stay in the market.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty right now.
And this is an immense honor. Data Telsea's scheduled to join us on a holiday, but we must pause for the end of an era. Nordstrom's Always in Forever of Seattle will go private. This on the same day as a container store files for bankruptcy. Lisa Montela that story earlier, and the emotion of a family running a store defines Dana Telsea as no one else on the island of Manhattan. She was intimately involved with a small store at fifty
seventh Street at Fifth Avenue, name of Bergdorf Goodman. As a child, Dana the emotion of a family running retail and then it's over. Describe your thoughts as you hear of the privatization of Nordstrom.
A couple things. So first of all, Tom, thank you very much for having me, and it's an honor to be here with you, and happy holidays too in your family. And you're right exactly. The privatization of a family run business that's been around for over one hundred years is
definitely a spark of change. I think the new environment today is different than it was in the past, and you have to give Nordstrom credit for all that it's accomplished, but the go forward environment requires big changes, and whether it is a reduction in the number of full line stores they have, the acceleration of what may be for the rack, the continuous pursuit of new and curated brands and their assortment, and for all what we know about Nordstrum,
the service element and the loyal customers they have is something that needs to be expanded and accelerated go forward. After all that they've accomplished.
For Nordstrom and for your Bergdorf Goodman and as Joe Feldman at Telsey Advisory Group covers big box, what are customers choosing to do this holiday season?
Well, this holiday season, I think overall it is continues to be that innovation and newness. You look at Birkenstock would very good sales increases in their own stores and wholesale stores. That's newness and differentiation with their closed toed shoes. I'm thinking of other winners, and you take a look frankly at Lululemon, where the newness and colors is driving demand. We're still not seeing the luxury world see any real acceleration.
There are certain brands at certainly the super upper end like Ermez that's always different than everyone else. But what people are searching for and where they're going continues to be value, particularly at the lower and middle income tier, whether it be at TJ Max, whether it be at Walmart. That's where we're seeing certainly some of the strength lately.
So, Dana, what are some of the retailers that you follow and followed for such a long time. What are they telling you about this holiday shopping season?
This year?
Compressed holiday season is a factor. You're seeing five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Consumers started earlier. There were promotions that began earlier, but the state of promotions isn't greater than what was expected. The other thing that happened with Christmas on a Wednesday. The digital shopping days where you can get even same day delivery that many companies are putting in place with door dash, and you only have one more day to be able to take advantage of that.
Anything kind of jumping out as the go to gift this year. I know some years it's we've definitely had those types of stories. Is this one of those years?
I think it's a little bit wider spread. I think keep in mind we've had Taylor Swift's concert ending, but Target had the Book of the Errors tour. You have the closed toed Birken shoes that basically happen to be very popular. And if you're into denim jeans, barrel leg jeans are what it's all about. And you're still seeing newness and cosmetics occur, and I think that's some of the independent brands that are driving demand.
I noticed that the fam was it all to and so for it was a double did you Day?
Dan?
And I got a nine, nine hundred and fifty dollars jacket over It's Chanelle and the news here, and I think of you know, the Devilwar's Prada where Meryl Street walks in and throws the purses in the bags, and all the fanciness met you blazy. I know I'm butchering the name, but the guy from Botega, Venada goes over to quote unquote save Chanell. What does that signal to you that something as iconic as Coco Chanel's franchise needs saving.
Well, keep in mind, ever since Carl lager Felt passed away, who was the icon of the Chanell brand, and you had his long standing colleague basically take over for the past few years, you need to have a marker. And I think what we've seen this year is many brands are getting new designers. Obviously, you've had things happen at Gucci, which it's needed to happen. We have changes going on at other of lv's brands with the whole change in leadership.
That's a current. And I've always believed that typically for many it's fifteen years that a designer has the eye of the consumer, and that their eye doesn't get tired of the brand. Carl Lagerfeld did it much longer, and I don't see anyone else like him out there.
Fascinating Dana.
The holidays season here and I got all these gloom articles out about retail, and yet we're still.
Aspirational after the pandemic. Have we changed? Is consumption beasts?
No?
I think we're always going to be consumption beasts, And you know why. There's a point of excitement and socialization that consumption brings. And look what we're saying in terms of discretionary spend. Where could twenty twenty five see resumption of acceleration of discretionary spend. Think of what we've seen in twenty twenty four, where old brands becoming new again,
where the cultural relevance of gap taking hold. And is Victoria's Secret going to be a name for twenty twenty five given the lines we've seen so far in twenty twenty four with the arrival of Hillary Souper's CEO. In September of twenty.
Four, Dana Great article out on the Bloomberg terminal entitled Kirkland for Christmas shoppers ditch logos for store brands. I didn't know that was a thing.
What are you seeing out there?
I think overall, when you think about private label and store brands, there's no one more successful in the essentials world than Costco's Kirklands and one of the interesting things about their own brand there everyone knows the name, so yes, store brands matter. You're even seeing some of the department stores in apparel looking to activate and enhance their own private label brands. It's also value and that it typically has a lower price than any regular brands.
You got Joe Joy as an outperformer on Costco.
Costco to the moon data.
You know what a competitive mode that scale, that can scale. Think of what Costco has, more stores, more products, more customers and really loyal members.
Dana, we finished strong here today. Thank you so much for your perspective, particularly on JW Nords term they will go private after a decade of price decline.
To say the least.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Here, Jerry, look at the front pages around the world. The Lisa Mateo week. We call it Lisa, what do you have?
I have all the scams that are happening this holiday season to steal your money. I don't know if you've gotten some of those weird text messages like click the link, all that kind of stuff. Well, they're using AI to do a lot of this stuff, and that's what's why you see it a lot more this season. In the text messages, right, the baiting victims to write programs testing
huge volumes of stolen credit card information. They're helping scammers generate fake online ads, so you're seeing more online ads, so the fake ones to click the link and then they steal your credit card information using AI to impersonate account holders, so they're pretending to be you so that
they can get your access to different accounts. So they're doing that too, and then they're also asking for video selfies because then they can use that to get access to different thing because people are just sending them in because if you get locked out sometimes of your account, you need to send.
You know, a video.
And they're changing all this and the banks are putting money using AI to help fight this, but yet it's happening.
So fas it really picked up.
Really, I just send money to you know, people who need they're buying oil. That's kind of I'm pretty comfortable doing that, but.
You know it's gone. We're a long way Lisa from Emails from Nigeria.
Right, Oh my gosh, yes, do you know the.
Code thing is the kids use the code. I don't do that ever anymore because they put the sticker that looks just like the code you think you're going and it's not.
It's like a scan. So I never do the code thing anymore ever.
Yeah, it's tough, and especially this time you see a lot of the you know, your package is being held and everyone has packages at the door.
One of our interns he's like, twenty three are just nailed that. Yeah, QR cold you old fossil.
Here, I'm going already NEXTQ CODE Now, I got you. Okay. Apple is considering something.
You know, you have the ring, right, that's what a lot of people have the doorbell when you come in there, so they have that, but now Apple wants to challenge that with their smart doorbell that will actually unlock the door with your face, so instead of the keys or punching in the numbers sometimes people have you just put your face up to it and then your door would unlock and you can go in. So that's something that Apple could be working on. This from Bloomberg into the
new year. So it's a new way to get into your house. But they're they're trying different things, like Apple's trying to take catch up. Remember the whole you know car they tried doing just fell apart.
Do we want this?
I don't.
Do you have Do you have Alexa? We're going to costco.
I do not have Alexa? No, I don't.
But this is I don't know. It seems like it would make getting into your house easier, but it's kind of scary too at the same time.
I don't know.
So if the if the nanny's locked outside with two dogs and she can't get because it's my ugly.
Face unless you add the nanny to you know.
What, I'll stick with my key.
You'll stick with your key, Yeah, yeah you can. I can bumble with the packages and do all the right same.
Okay.
New York City's new secret weapon in the war on rats it is a dog named Katie.
Okay. Katie is a four year old twelve and a half pas much.
She's part Chihuahua, part pug, part rat terrier, and her owner says that she takes a route. This is in around Prospect Park where they say they don't have a lot of rats, but apparently they do because Katie sniffs them out, snatches them up in her draw, cracks their neck. Then the owner takes them and dumps them in a garbage can.
So here's the thing.
In twenty twenty three, Katie bagged about one hundred and fifteen rats.
Really about a week ago. To this year, she has a week left closing in on five hundred.
So this dog has been doing a lot of stuff I guess around the area Prospect Park, Park Slope, Gwanis. Her most productive week is Thursday for some reason, I don't know why.
Maybe that's when the rats come out and play.
But the owner says sometimes she does get you know, a little scratches and things like that, but she does get her vaccinated so that she won't get sick if she because if she does get fit by the rats, but I don't know, she goes to show you how bad the rat problem is.
Color coded Google mapp titled Katie's Rats twenty twenty four, so you can follow her as she goes around in her duties.
Okay, yeah, I do, Okay, So this is okay if you have kids listening in the background, for any reason, just ear muffs.
Okay, I'll give you a couple of minutes. Okay, all right, here we go. Holiday fixture the elf on the shelf. This is what a lot of parents do. I remember doing it with my kids. It's meant to keep an eye on the shelf.
You know, you have this little elf and every night, the elf goes back to Santa, tells them who's been good or bad, gives them the full breakdown, and then comes back.
This is all before Christmas, this story.
Okay, so parents have been you know, they have to figure out a different storyline every day, and it's a lot of work because they have to move the elf. And if you forget, then the kid's gonna ask why.
Did the elf move. It's this whole big thing.
So now a lot of parents are starting to say, you know what, I'm sick of the elf.
I'm not doing it.
And now what they have to do is explain to their kids why the elf isn't coming to their house. This is like this huldrunout drama because all the other kids have the elf. So Mommy, how come my elf is not coming to my house? You are lucky because there's a lot of work. I just starting when my kids were you know, younger. But now it's become a social media thing. So now people are posting all, you know, the different funny things are doing with the elf, you know the next day, and it's become.
This huge responsibility for them to do. I just have the patience from you know.
But it's the elf on the shelf I actually have since my kids are older. I have Snoop on the stoop Snoop Dogg as one, so I use that.
Snoop on.
I have a real tree. You don't have a real tree.
No, I have a fake tree. Yes, I have put it up the.
Real Yeah, thank God for that.
Yes, it's a lot of work. Parents are stressed out enough as it is, and they say need this extra burden on their hands.
When we do this tomorrow, I'll find a negg dog story. Thank you, I will, Lisa, thank you so much.
The newspapers here, of course, across the nation for all of you as well.
Is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune in, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal