Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
We always like to start the day and start the week with someone with broad perspective. Right now joining us is Robert Kaplan. We're thrilled that he could join us today. Forever associated with his Goldman Sachs, but his public service noted to the nation is the president of the federserv Bank of Dallas, and just a really broad view of where we are. Thrilled Roberts, you would begin our Monday with us, where are we right now? In a broad sense?
Can our institutions serve vibe this onslaught of uncertainty?
They can survive, But we've got a number of weeks more to go to get through this fog. And in particular, you know, there's two or three big changes going on. There's the government spending cuts, there's the changes in immigration policy which are having even a bigger effect than are being discussed.
And on tariffs. The thing that we're just not sure about.
Is the Trump administration intending to negotiate tariffs down to zero, ten percent, twenty percent. I noticed over the weekend they said that they want to settle out at twenty to fifty percent. And those are dramatically different outcomes.
Your charm, Robert Kaplan among You know, the people think that everybody within the Caplan school comes from six zip codes somewhere in the vicinity of Boston or New York or Washington. You are a brethren of Kansas, out of the University of Kansas. This makes you different. You understand the span of America. I'm looking at a statistic where Kansas has two point three billion worth of products in aerospace to the rest of the world. How it threat is Kansas from this upset in Washington.
Well, it is threatened, and it's got a lot of farmers, big agricultural economy, and our farmers rely very heavily on foreign markets China for an example, And so there's a lot of concern in Kansas.
And also there are a lot of.
Small businesses and bigger businesses I'm seeing are having They don't love the uncertainty, but they have a lot of levers to manage small businesses are telling me that they're at risk if this goes on for a number of more months. There are many of them are thinking that they won't stay in business.
Paul, over the weekend buried in the advis I know you weren't paying attention. At least it wasn't paying attention. China canceled twelve thousand metric tons of United States porkshipmits. Oh that's a lot of bacon.
That's a lot of bacon there, and I think we're going to see more of that, Robert. When you have discussions with your clients, Robert, with your bankers at Goldman Sachs, is discussion about a recession is coming or whether it's coming, and whether we can get through this. What's the real economic fallout that you're hearing from your clients and bankers.
I think people see that in certain sectors there's already slowing, so travel leisure, there's less tourism that we know, Shipping we know is weak, and you were talking about earlier and in other parts the sentiment is very negative, but we don't see a severe decline. I think most people I talked to are expected further slowing.
It's not a fade to complete.
But I think they're worried that there's been pre ordering it's artificially bolster GDP recently, and that there's a little bit of a cliff coming and a more substantial decline in growth. But they don't know, but they're preparing for a more severe slowing.
In that regard. Robert, what do you think that the Federal Reserve can do should do?
I think they should be making.
Clear, as I think Jpal did a couple of weeks ago, that they're still very focused on fighting inflation. You don't want inflation expectations to get de anchored unanchored here, and that's what he was trying to do. And in the otherwise, don't make predictions. Don't talk about June or not June because they don't know. We don't even know what the tariff policies are. Ultimately, keep your options open, and don't try to be a prognosticator, be a risk manager.
Formerly with the Dallas Fed and now at Globin Sex, Robert keppan with us to start as strong this morning and this extended conversation. I mean, I guess we could try it out, Robert Kepp. When the Fisher equation the Fisher hypothesis rather of central bank theory. But it does come down to lagging or x post or after the fact. I mean, that's the only fallback the central bank has. They have to wait and see the labor market crack before they act, right.
Well, they need to see more evidence in the hard data of slowing. And also they don't know and we don't know this cost shock we're about to get how.
Inflation areas are going to be.
The irony is, up until January twentieth, goods were disinflating globally. There's a lot of global overcapacity for manufacturing, and the service sector was where the inflation issue is. Now it's changing, and so the Fed's going to have to see more evidence. And in fairness to them, it's hard to make policy forecasts or judgments when you don't know yet what the policies are, and they don't.
I mean, Paul, should we do a chart on Bloomberg Radio?
Now that works?
I think a chart works with Robert Captain And you know where I'm going with this, Robert Kaplan. I'm going to the ten year real yield. We are in between e within the dispersion folks and the answer is at one point nine nine percent, Paul, it really begins to show this economic slow down down at one point eight zero. So we're we are distant from that identifying.
Of a slowing Yeah, we're certainly seeing a GDP forecast on Wall Street coming down, Robert. When you talk to your corporate clients at Goldman Sachs, what are they doing about some of their longer term plans, whether it's long term capbecks, whether it's m are they hitting the pause button or are they trying to move forward?
They're mainly hitting the pause button. They're not canceling plans, but they're pausing them. And the other thing they're doing is and again, these tariffs have come very abruptly. So many CEOs have told me, listen, if I had six to twelve months, I couldn't sell, I wouldn't solve.
This, but I could make moves.
But this is happening now, and so they're re looking at their plans for supply chains and logistics. And on the investing side, we are seeing people who started the year wanting to overallocate to the dollar are now saying, yeah, maybe we're.
Overallocated to the dollar.
They're gone they've done a one eighty and they're starting to look at broader alternatives away.
From the dollar.
That doesn't mean that that's what they're going to be doing six months from now. But there again, they're concerned, and it's more than tariffs. That they don't understand the US economy and US institutional framework as well as they thought they did, and that's giving them some pause.
Should we go to the Dallas FED with Robert Captain? I think we can do that, Robert Kaplan. As you know, each FED has its own characteristics, its own past. The Robert McTeer Robert Kaplan pass of the Dallas FED, but it's on the border as well. Not speaking for the Dallas FED, I want to make clear that mister doctor Kaplan doesn't do that, folks, But Robert Kaplan to be clear here, how do you perceive our tension with Mexico as you look at all the research of your Dallas FED.
Yeah, so, Texas, as you note, is the largest exporting state in the country. The relationship between Texas and Mexico in terms of logistics and supply chain arrangements as well as people by the way from Mexico coming across the border at a shop in Texas, that those relationships are essential. And this is why for many companies domicile not just
in Texas but in the country. The being able to send goods back and forth across the border with Mexico as well as Canada has been essential to domiciling in Texas and in the United States and making sure we're globally competitive. And people don't realize that if you want to encourage reshoring to the US and you want to take share from Asia, you would want to preserve those logistics and the chain arrangements.
So, with all your experience, Robert Kaplan, how does the how do the people around the president, including a Secretary Treasury, allow him to save face and walk back from his mckinleyite tariffs.
So I think the nub of the issue right now is it's unclear how much costs savings we're getting out of doge okay, and I think that's part of this discussion. And I think they're still a little bit wetted that we're going to get the offset, We're going to get revenue from tariffs, and that'll help us in the de leveraging, it'll help us justify bigger tax cut, and I think all the studies I've looked at have shown that every dollar of tariff revenue you get, you give it back a portion of it.
In terms of lower growth and damaging groups.
But that's the key to I think why they're clinging to these tariff tariffs at higher levels, not at zero, and I think they may be better served letting go a little bit on that concept.
In the zeitgeist this morning, Paul Sweeney is a bar shirt. I'm going to give credit to the Tax Foundation showing the tencen see revenue build from tariffs versus the ginormous revenue that comes in from income taxes. Right, it's a sobering charge.
It is Robert as former president of the Dallas FED, you have an appreciation for immigration, legal and illegal, being in that part of the country here, What do you believe the impact of this reduction of illegal immigration coming across the border will due to the US labor market, because I'm not sure really folks are clear on how that works.
So of the one of the things I would say, over the last four years and during the Trump administration, we had in excess of a million workers a year immigrants who came in and joined the workforce. It appears now this year that could be in the low hundreds of thousands. We can't tell yet. So that's going to slow workforce growth. That slows GDP, it tightens the workforce. But the bigger thing going on that I would call out, there are millions of undocumented immigrants in this country in
the workforce who are unsure of their status. And I'm hearing from their employers that some number of them are not coming into work and they're certainly not shopping and because they're concerned. And so that is making the labor force, at least in the service sector tighter, and it will slow GDP growth, and it's probably affecting consumer spending.
Robert Kaplan, generous of you to be with us this morning. Vice Chairman Goldin Sex, thank you so much, and again his public service at the Dallas FED.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
With a shocking statistic. Sephanie Roth joins us right now, you say, may second, the April report is where the job economy breaks and we only get ninety thousand non farm payrolls.
Yeah, I'm surprised how below consensus we are for this print. Combination of seasonal factors, the weather, the early jobs print, and then on top of that all the tariff uncertainty. We're meaningfully below consent.
Is where are they to cut to the chase? I mean, folks, this is really important. Where's everybody wrong? Who thinks it's June or July where the Stephanie Roth number kicks in.
Yeah, and I think we're going to get a bigger job's headwind in the next couple of months, but it should probably start to leak in to this print. There's a ton of uncertainty. It's hard to know whether you should hire or not. It's hard to know whether you should invest. And then on top of that you do have some funky things about this print that put additional downward pressure.
Stephanie. So we think about some of the economic uncertainties that may result from higher tariffs. For you, is it more growth or inflation? Where do you think we're going to see it?
I think we'll start so I think we'll see from a growth perspective, we'll see it in the jobs prints, and then from an inflation perspective, we'll probably we probably won't see it until say the June print, So things like pre tariff sales, a lot of the inventory is going to get worked down, and then companies are going to start to raise prices once the new inventory feeds in.
But by the way, they haven't really been importing that much from China because terif rates are well over one hundred and forty one hundred and forty percent, which is on the well end.
Of the Lafrica Paul I should mention last month was two hundred and twenty eight thousand non farm payrolls the survey. I didn't realize how way down it is. It's wicked down. Good Morning Boston. One hundred and thirty thousand, and Stephanie Roth in Wolf Research, is it ninety thousand zero? I like that.
So, Stephanie, what how do you think this economy is going to play to you? Are you guys calling for a recession over Wolf Research?
No, I have point six percent GDP for this.
Year point six percent.
We have a couple of weeks until we start to sort of reached the point of no return. So if Trump and Facts reduces the China teriff rate, which I think there is a decent chance of that, then we can actually get out of this. We end up with a sluggish year with the economy can hold up. If we're sitting here in August and the tariffs are still well over one hundred percent on China, then yeah, I
think we are in a different situation. But I just don't think the administration has that pain tolerance to really deal with companies doing significant layoffs. He cares less about the stock market, clearly, but once we start to really hear from companies, which has started to happen last week, he's very likely to roll back the terriffs.
On ninety thousand jobs, what's a vector of your unemployment rate? You're getting onto a five percent unemployment rate.
So we have well, we have a rising up to four point five percent by the end of this year. The thing that we haven't really talked about yet when it comes to labor market is we also have a significant reduction. From an integration perspective, there's going to be conflicting forces on the unemployment rate where you have the slowdown in the economy, putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Yet a lot of jobs supply reducing because of immigration,
putting downward pressure. So that's why the unemployment rate is not going to rise as much in our forecast versus what it would otherwise be the case.
See how she did that, That's just something she took labor economics, and she's the one in the front row I hated because she nailed it.
I'm going to back row read in the New York Times.
So that was my market.
How I did it doing a cross or puzzle? And so the question then is the Federal Reserve. Is there a role here for the Federal Reserve to kind of ease some of the pressure that may be coming into the US economy.
No, No, that is not going to happen. The Fed is not going to be influenced by some of this political noise. Okay, they are going to wait until the unemployment rate starts to rise, jobs are significantly below one hundred thousand before they can actually significantly easier. Inflation is going to be well above their target, their target by at least a percentage point. We're gonna have three ish
percent inflation this year. There's no way they can ease unless they start to see actual weakness in the economy. So it's likely that would happen in call it September of this year, not much before that.
How's the consumer doing? I mean I heard a Secretary bestent over the weekend saying, yeah, I know the forecast are coming down. I know there's concern out there. I know the survey data, whether it's you miss or others are citing concerns. But he he was saying that this weekend that the consumer is still spending. Consumer's okay, and that's seventy percent of the US economy. Said, don't worry so much.
How do you view the consumer?
I think that's right. Today the consumer is fine, they're still employed. Prices haven't really risen. Yeah, when you ask look at consumer sentiment measures, they're down because the consumers realize what's coming in the next couple of months, but as of now, they haven't really felt it yet. Once they start to see the numbers like we just talked about with some of those companies raising prices significantly, once shelves start to become there, that's when it could become
a lot different. And by the way, when job markets start to slow down a lot. That's when the consumer is very much likely to pull when when you.
Say this came up this weekend, when someone fancy like you says and shelves become beare yes, we look at that as like Eastern Europe or Russia fifty years ago. What does quote shelves become bear look like?
Oh, COVID's that's the most recent example, and it's going to be a similar type of thing if we don't change the tariffs pretty significantly. Tarifreates on China to come down all in below fifty percent. If they're sitting much above fifty percent, it doesn't make sense. I mean China five zero, correct, China five zero, all in.
Under ten percent? What number under ten percent is a trigger point where we calm down. So I haven't seen that.
So we need to see the China tariffs come down to something that's below the fifty percent. Also, that has to include the fentannel tariffs too. That's just twenty percent. So the number that we got, the reciprocal tariffs that we got in April second have to come back to that. Thirty four percent is kind of a place that wouldn't be okay. And then on the rest of the countries. We have to just stay at this ten percent or lower or lower.
I'm studying Paul the or lower okay phrase, and I to me, it's almost back to three percent, but you're the expert. Or lower is nine percent.
If we're a ten percent on the rest of the countries. And by the way, if we have some sort of deal with Canada Mexico, then we're in an okay place. Not great, but okay. I don't think we need to return back to three percent necessarily, but we cannot stay with China particular, is just a really big problem for this economy. If we say the rest of ten percent, the common can manage that.
Paul from New Jersey wants to know if we modeled in the market reaction to a ninety thousand non farm payroll.
Yeah, I think it would probably be a negative one, just given how optimistic the forecasts are for this month, which is truly surprising to me.
I totally agree with that.
This is great, so Tom, I thought my vest but last year, so I think I now have a trade deficit with Italy. I'm not that worried about it, that's okay.
Yeah, but I made up for with a beverage of my choice. I got the tab on the seventh floor of the Hassler and said, well, that made up for Paul's Thank you, Stephanie Roth, brilliant, Thank you, really really brilliant. With Wolf Research, I can't say nothing.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Joining us now. She never has Keena Henrietta Trece Co foundered Veda Partners. Henrietta, The people like you in Washington this morning are going to read found four hundred thousand Biblical words from Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer published in The Atlantic today. The rest of us just look at the polls and the President is losing color. The character of the polls and the impact on Republicans over the weekend.
Yeah, I mean, I think this is just starting to emerge as an area that Republican members can't afford to ignore. One of the things that happens when members are out of session is they get an opportunity to just avoid the press, avoid any bad news, and stay away from the topics that are happening in the White House. And as soon as they return to Congress, they're going to be confronted by these numbers because they're so sharply changed
from just a couple months ago. The generic Democrat is now a net six point swing ahead of Republicans from where they were in November. So that is a material issue. We have to look at about thirty nine right Republican seats that are open now and potentially gettable, and that's that's where they're going to be spending their time.
Billy House Venerable at Bloomberg New Yorker's boo and jeer Republicans Lawlor It's circus like town hall. That's the future of the GOP, isn't it.
I mean, that was pretty incredible. I actually posted this on Instagram account talking about coming on here this morning. There's like a fifteen bullet point rule list for Mike Lawler's town hall on how constituents should be expected to comport themselves during this meeting in order for him to even hold it. The blowback for Mike Lawler is pretty substantial right now. I'm sure you've seen that Elie Staphonic is pulling ahead of him in the race for a
national or a statewide race. And I think this really puts pressure on Lawler to get a maximum achievable deliverable on the stalt deduction. Y'all talk about it all the time, and it's because it's so important to New Yorkers. There's almost nothing that Mike Lawler can deliver on salt that would be sufficient to overcome how negatively New Yorkers are going to think about it. And that's because if he does nothing, the salt cap reverts back to its previous
position of totally uncapped. So there's almost only failure here if he votes for any of the tax bills that are coming through. So it's a really tough spot for him to be in right now.
So, speaking of the tax bill, the twenty twenty five reconciliation bill, I guess they'll start work on it. It's point very soon, but I mean they're I think they need to cut like two trillion dollars worth of federal spending. I don't know how you do that. What's the game plan there?
No, you're right to talk about that and then look at the sequencing that they've set up. So they're going to do all of the dessert first. This week, there's going to be hearings at a couple of committees, but all of those committees are tasked with increase in the deficit. So, for example, one hundred and fifty billion dollars that the Armed Services Committee gets to spend, one hundred billion dollars
that the Judiciary Committee gets to spend. This is where all the spending is going to go out on the popular stuff like investing in the military, or investing in immigration detention facilities and judges and things like that. The real heart of this bill the two trillion dollars in cuts that they're going to try to identify the what four and a half trillion dollar tax bill, three point eight trillion of which is already spoken for three ent
extension of existing rates. That's all going to come late this month. I wouldn't be surprised, and I'm starting to telegraphic clients now that that could very easily slip past Speaker Johnson's already delayed expectation of a Memorial Day rollout. So the Ways and Means Committee is really where you want to concentrate your time. They're the ones who get all the money to raise and spend, and they're not
scheduled yet. It won't be probably until the very last week before in a vile day, that we see their efforts.
Bloomberg News reporting and others as well. Trump floats new income tax cut in bid to eastpite of tariffs. Is a new income tax cut possible? Reasonable?
No, it's not. But I do appreciate that the President is acknowledging that the tax bill they're working on right now does not include cuts. And we've walked through this math in the past, and I think it's really worth spending time on. This is a gigantic bill, five point three trillion dollars of spending, but almost all of that is already allocated to things that have either expired at the end of this year or will have expired since
twenty twenty two. So the main stimulative provisions of this package, I think are going to be somewhere in the range of about three to five hundred billion dollars. That is not enough to eliminate the individual income tax for individuals under two hundred thousand dollars, and it's off by several
trillion dollars, so it's not close. I think the best that you can hope for is that of that three to five hundred million dollars that they're going to have to spend, you could either hike the saltcap a little bit. You can try to eliminate taxes on temp which does not have support in the United States Senate. You cannot come close to eliminated taxes on Social Security because that costs one point eight trillion dollars. But there's really just not a lot there.
Henriette, thank you, just brilliant. It's just just really really interesting about the political immediacy that is out there. Henrietta Treys is with Veda Partners.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
This is an important conversation Joseph Lavorgnia with us around the market opening chief Economists, SNBC, NIKO securities, and with some public service in the first term of a Trump administration. So whatever they're going to do. They're going to save face and jabbo down these outrageous tariffs. Okay, begin with that. They're going to get down. And let's say they get back to a ten percent blended rate, except the pre
trade war number was a three percent blended rate. Where does Jolivarni you see the saving of face going to get to an efficacious blended rate? Is it ten? Nine seven? Back to three percent? Where's that number?
Joelivern you I've got a jack in the box story I want to tell you, but offline story that off my chest. Okay, okay, that's number one.
Two.
The President said on the campaign trail last year that it was ten percent for everybody but China sixty. Those are the numbers that I'm kind of working with that we ultimately go back to, at least maybe as terms of statutory numbers, but as your point, blended rates will probably be a lot less. There'll be carve outs, there'll be some exemptions.
That's what I'm guessing.
This is study. Yes, you're encyclopedic at this. Where's your efficacious blended terriffry.
For non China my guess? And this is a why confidence interval is under ten percent, because if you look at what the administration wants, it wants to reindustrialize, raise some revenues. China's a peer competitor and a strategic adversary, so everything that's being done is really as it relates
to China. So there will be some tariffs on our trading partners for trade unfair trade practices, but as the reduction of ten percent minimum, assuming there is reciprocity, that's kind of what I think we need to work off of. Ten percent is the number. And then again I'm guessing because of what's already happened with some announced carveouts and exceptions, it'll be lower, but I don't know to what it is. I don't know what it is, and China's will be
much higher. And if it goes from one forty five down to sixty, as the President alluded to before, I mean, it's still a very high number, but it may not feel as bad because the number was coming down for such a high high point when the negotiations began.
What does that tariff level do to your GDP.
Call not I've been pretty optimistic on GDP generally speaking. I mean, when I did the calculations of a ten percent teriff on everybody but China, sixty percent on China. I got about a nine tenths increase, assuming no offsets in the dollar, just a pure math of less than one percent. It was nine tenths. And then the Fed had done a piece back in September eighteen of fifteen percent across the board and they have basically the same number.
What that would mean for GDP, I mean, initially maybe it's a few tenths, like it's not a big number. The problem right now, the way I see it, is the market's worried about uncertainty, and it's very, very hard to quantify uncertainty. What's amazing is if you look at this is just what the data show. If you look at the small business data between uncertainty and real GDP was positive from about late eighties up to about twenty fifteen, and now it's gone negative, but not by much so
the correlation is only about minus point two. So as much as we talk about uncertainty, it's probably over overwrought and exaggerated. Like this can't go on all year. And my own working assumption is that the president is a great negotiator, He's going to get something done. And then we're going to in the economy is going to be okay.
The bottom line is the polling is cratering. I don't know where it is. I don't know where it's going to be in a week or two. There'll be more polls. There always are. The concern out there is quote unquote empty shells. You've served time with President Trump. What's going to be the reaction of this administration if we get empty shelves.
I don't think we're going to get empty shells, Tom, for a variety of reasons. I think a lot of that is just fear fear miiring in some sense. You mentioned the polls, and you have to be careful with the polling because I know the internal polling that the president uses is not showing that weakness, and neither do
other good polls like grass MUSCIN. Some of these polls from ABC, Washington Post to me do not accurately reflect his base of support because it's always been a real difficulty in gaining the mag of person in that sample. And as someone I used to work with us to say, there's a lot of propaganda polling, So I'd be very careful on that. The equity market has recovered nicely off its lows. The bond markets down about fifty bases points from where it was in December. I'm watching gas and
oil prices. Those are moving lower. That's important. Those kitchen table issues are really key to many of the Trump voters, and that ultimately will matter more than I think some of these other metrics. But we'll see. I mean, I'm assuming, of course that these are going these policies are going to work, and economy is going to be okay. If it turns out the end of the year, you're right and there's nothing on the shelves down.
I got to interrupt in the time we have. Thank you Ian Bremer for sending this over to me. Really appreciate Ian Bremer being out front the president of the United States on a day of election in Canada. And it's a long, long, true social whatever tweet. I've got to find it here now. If Canada becomes the chaerished fifty first state of the United States of America, no more artificially drawn line from many years ago on the day of an election of our neighbor to the north, that has gotta be kidney.
But but Tom, this is true, No trolling show no, there is, there is a budget.
I went to.
Canada.
Well, Vassar certainly is not this college that I went to when I graduated in ninety one. I could tell you that. But look, this is Trump trolling and having fun with it. There's no way that Canada is going to be the fifty first state. Ian should know better when he comments on that.
So talk to us about I think what's important coming up here is we got to get a tax bill done, and that's.
Going to be great.
You well, that's exactly right. That's the point that I've and that is that the terriffs are obviously important, and I've been arguing that we're gonna have some clarity on these tariffs because there even though they won't be scored in the CBO data, they will they'll be used to get preps some of these fiskly conservative people on board. Right now, the terriffs, this is only through March, and
the April data are going to show more strength. We're generating one hundred billion and tariff revenue this year, so that's a big number. We need the budget done because the budget is going to give clarity on taxes. If the budget drags on, you know, past the summer recess, and we're now in Q three. We're gonna have a problem on the account of.
Fifteen seconds is all I got. We need to have you back, Joe. Is tariff revenue gonna substitute for a lower income tax burden.
It will offset the revenue loss from no tax on tips over time and some of the Social Security benefits, so effectively, Yes, Joe Oliver on.
You, thank you so much. This morning with SMBC and Legal Securities.
This is the Bloombergs Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Newspapers at least what do you have?
Okay, So I wanted to start with this one that stuck out to me. This was and the Wall Street Journal says a new group of people are turning to weight loss drugs like ozempic. It's not kind of the overweight, heavily overweight. It's amateur athletes that are looking to raise their performance. So you know the ones who go out and do like the five k or maybe a triathlon or something like.
Weight train every day.
Okay, show just turn it out there, thanks, but like runners, cyclists, anything like that. So the Wall Street journalist bokes and they said their bodies are feeling stronger. They said that they've shaved like a minute off of their five k time, which is huge yep if you're one of those runners. But they're warning that you know what, if you suppress too much of your appetite, it's not good if you're an athlete at that kind of caliber because it can affect you.
And then some of them do I get the whole people, but other side effects.
Different people have different side effects depending on what your NAS dose is, yes, and what your dosage is. So that's why doctor suggests like microdosing, like giving smaller amounts of it. But it's just a new growing group.
What do you think you're the only one in the stern order control room healthy. Would you take I should say, slide for seconds off your sterling five kids?
So I don't think I would. I mean it's because of the side effects. I don't think it's worth it. But that's just that's just my next to the Okay egg price is coming back down. Costco update.
I went there.
They're in the seven dollars range now for the two dozen, so getting a little bit better. But the effects of the sky high rise still being felt. So you had tractor supply. They're halfway through. They have this annual baby chick sales event and apparently they have strong results. So the CEO said that the core customer base, they're expanding
their flock. But what they pointed out is that they have a strong from new customers who want them for their backyard, so more people are buying them so that they can raise the chickens.
What do you do from your side?
What do you do? I got a chicken coop. It's just off the frick. I mean you go down to seventy. I got fourteen chickens going just off the frick. They just reopened the free collection. I saw spectacular renovation success of the frick. And you know see they called me up and they just said the chicken coop doesn't cut.
You know, got to take that out to make more chickens.
Well, you think this is funny, You don't understand. Coyotes in Central Park next there you go there you go.
Okay, last one, Paul this saod that's me because of you. You're a Yellowstone like big fan. Okay, So Bloomberg's Greef time. Lucas Shaw had.
This great really really.
Breaks it down as to how this became this three billion out of franchise and then where it goes next from here, So it really breaks it down. I mean it talked about Taylor Sheridan Granting ready to quit. He didn't want to make it because he was, you know, getting a lot of feedback. He sold it to HBO, who decided not to go ahead with it. Then it landed at Paramount and now it's one of the most valuable franchises in Hollywood.
Yeah.
I mean he's done two or three prequels and there's more coming. The risk is here that they're just going to burn through this whole concept too quickly. But you know, you make money, why you can I guess so. But again, yeah, it's been a huge, huge franchise, and they're gonna have spinoffs from the Yellowstone Story show which ended, They're gonna have spinoffs using some of the existing characters.
So more to come.
You seem, like Lucas said nineteen twenty three in.
Nineteen eighty three.
Yep, exactly.
No, I have not seen him. I have not gotten into them, but I know they're super popular. But I'll be looking for the new spinoffs from the existing yellow Stone.
Right, there's like Dutton Ranches a good Anyfore, I talked to.
You more about this because I thought the Lucash say it was just I'm.
Glad you to get you to how Paramount lost a lot of money from it, tons.
Of money, and then boom. We'll talk to Paul about that later.
Folks.
I think it is, you know, for the culture of America. It's really something like, how do you invest in all these It needs to be easy. I mean, you know, you were little Richard in the fifties, Lisa, tell you. Thank you so much.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal