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In the studio.
Not commuting from New Jersey, Sarah I joins us right now. Chief market strategist Alpine Sex and Woods. You have been brilliant about Look, there's a malstream of news, but you got to participate. How do you feel going into the weekend with the courage of your convictions?
I guess succeeding well.
I think that the market has been volatile over the last six weeks, and this fast move higher also seems to put the risk reward scenario into a little bit more of a risk position. Because you've had such a big move on the equity side, you do have to keep participating. I think this is someplace to look really carefully at valuations since we've had such a big lib so fast.
So what do you make of it? I mean a month or so ago people were jumping off, going to jump off a bridge or something. Now we've almost retraced it all. I mean, is it just just the perception of tariffs and what it might do to the economy.
It's a great psychological experiment because you had this great, terrible thing that was going to happen, which was we're going to stop trading all together, and we're going to have these big fights, and all of a sudden, we're going to have a global trade war to oh, maybe we're just going to get a level of tariffs that are higher than we originally anticipated the very first time.
But since you had that big panic in the middle, all of a sudden, that starts to sound reasonable, and I think markets are just looking for some clarity here and they're going, well, it's not that bad. We still have all these other stories that are good. Had the AI and earning story not played out, I think it would have been a lot tougher right now to see those valuations come back.
All right, So how do things screen for you these days? Where do you see opportunities? Where do you kind of go from here?
So if you're looking at some of the places that we're looking at right now, you look at things like financials, which haven't really participated quite as much. It hasn't been bad for them, but there's still potentially some deregulation going on that utilities look sort of interesting here. Some of the stuff that's gotten hit by a lot of the news are very difficult. So healthcare becomes a lot more challenging when all of a sudden you're having a fight about pricing.
So what about XOI? I mean I haven't looked at this in ages.
I mean in the old days at nysc Arco oil index XOI. I'm waiting for somebody to walk in here and say energy bottom, you know, is it an ultimate value here? How do you treat energy in a time of evs?
I think the tough thing is it's a time horizing question because we do like energy, and we love some of the energy infrastructure plays, and I've talked about some of the pipelines, some of the LG stocks. But I think from an oil stock perspective, this tension between a recession and slow down and or a deal with Iran and other things are driving the oil price in a way that makes those stocks. Some of them have great dividends. You look at a company, it's got a great dividend,
but it's a long term story. Right now, it's hard to see those stocks appreciating with the volatility and the oil price and what's going on globally.
Oh, we got economic data on a Friday.
Get one more question? Allowed the economic days Friday on.
A Friday going into it? So, I mean, how do you think about just fixed income here broadly defined here? Where do you see opportunities in fixed income?
Fixed income is a bit of a question because you have to think at some point we are going to get lower rates. The market keeps switching. When that's going to happen, it is a good thing to have in the portfolio. It was crazy volatile in a way that
you don't usually see it six weeks ago. I'm not sure you get a repeat of that because there were a lot of bigger questions that were happening then that seem to have, if not been settled, at least tabled for now, which is everyone's going to sell their treasurees that isn't a US holder and it's going to be
a disaster for the treasury market. I think that's come off a little bit, and I think you want to stick to where you want to stick to the short end of the curve, which is sort of what everybody's been doing, even though you know rates are going to come down because the duration is tough, Sarah.
Hunt, is a vix beneficial to you? Do you look at it like a thermometer of the equity system?
I would say that in the extremes, it is when you get those low readings that go on and on and on forever. It's when you see those big spikes that you start to pay more attention to how that affects other things. But right now it's more on the margin than it is on a day to day. It's directional, and then on a day to day situation.
I'm just to speak for myself. I'm surprised that the equity markets have come back as much as they have simply because, okay, the tariffs aren't the worst case scenario, but they're still significantly higher than where they were.
Well, let's lay that out. That's important.
It was three ish percent blended, and Ernie Tedesky and the great team at Yell Budget Lab they're modeling out even with adjustments, thirteen ish fourteen is percent.
Yeah, so that's a triple maybe a four pole exactly. And if i'm you know, that's got to hit the p and l across the board, or consumers are just gonna get screwed with pricing.
I think there's going to be a combination of things. There's going to be some substitution, there's going to be some price increases. I think it's going to be difficult for margins. Margins go to earnings. If earnings are coming down, that multiple that just went right back up to where we start at the beginning of the year starts to
look a little pricey. And that's where again you have some adjustments that need to be made because people looking out forward, but the near term earnings hit is going is going to happen.
YouTube great, this guy, this guy, this could be a fan member.
Sure, bitcoin Boomer. I think there's my brother out in the Dakotas. Bitcoin Boomer, thank you for this.
University of Michigan survey is so far off from reality. I bet the questions are loaded to create the conclusions they desire.
It's an Ohio state f in. Yeah, really, the Ohio state economics Sarah Hunt.
The soft data and behavioral phone calling stuff, is that a value to you?
It's a value when it has some prediction. Right now, the soft data and the hard data are not converging because the hard data is still looking at stuff where we may be pulling stuff in. The soft data may be too negative because it's also sticking with some of the psychological issues that we're going on in the month of April. So I think it's difficult until they start to get a little bit closer together. Just talking about those inflation expectations, I mean, that's much higher than we're
even seeing today. So the expectation that that's going to change so much. Is that expectation going to change again? So I don't know right now that it is as predictive as you'd like it to be.
Any guest who uses the word of expectation more than a half trick three times, we show the door.
Sarah, Thank you, Thank you so much.
Sarah Hu with his chief market strategist and Alpine section.
Was we adore having her in.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. E's durn Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
I think we got to go coupon now. Yeah, Meghan Robinson gets to starting.
Yeah, Meghan Robinson joins us. She's ahead of US credit strategy BNP Piabashi j wants sent our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio on a Friday, So double like golden stars for that, Megan, there's spent so much uncertainty in the marketplace here. We've heard that from corporate executives on the earnings call, a lot of uncertainty. How does that impact your view of the credit markets here? How much risk are you guys taking these days?
So we're actually we've shifted a bit cautious. So I think we've we've certainly gotten a lot of good news on tariffs with some of the uncertainty removed with China and the ninety day pause, but ultimately we think you're still at a much higher tariff level than you were to start the year, so US to the rest of the world, we think is an average of twelve percent tariff that's almost five times higher than when Trump Trump took office, and the market's now pricing in a lot
of optimism and we're back to close to the tight levels we saw here to date in February. So I think from here, gradually we do think that spreads will we'll start to move wire is some of the data that we get shows some of that terriffy fact.
What I when they note Megan is the way you learn to take losses and equity is to ignore the bond market.
Right now, I really want to pay attention to the Megan.
Robson world, and what I see is real concern about price lower out the curve, the tenure, the thirty year, that Japan forty year has some legitimate convexity right now. Are we into a new regime in late twenty twenty five of higher yields ten years and out?
Well? I think the yield story is absolutely back in credit, so that the argument to buy credit with the recent sell off has I think only strengthened. So investors there is concern that spreads could potentially move wider belong of Ia, of long end of IG because of some of this concern about fiscal deficits and that the treasury could go even higher than it happens.
Right Am I going to like b and be peribout? I mean they speak very directly. It's in French and I can't understand it. But that's a different story.
On Monday, do I want to load the boat in a thirty year US bond or do I wait?
I think you should. I think you should wait. So from here we actually think that the treasure yields should should head lower. As treasury yields move lower over the course of the year, investors are going to want a little bit more spread compensation on the long end. So in terms of the curve, we like being a little more defensive in investment grade. So three to five year
investment grade we think looks good. I think that the long end could actually be an underweight opportunity if we do see the rally and treasury yields that we're expecting.
I can't emphasize Paul the polarity here between Megan Robson as an adult in the frenzy out in the zeitgeist right now over the ten twenty thirty years, pieces of everybody's own MG Japan forty or price way down. But the pros aren't looking that they're in much time.
How about new new issuance?
Do you guys?
Are you guys? Is it a phone?
If I'm a salesperson on Morgan Stander Goldmans, am I calling you guys to buy new issuance.
So we just revised our new issuance a bit lower for investment grade, so we have a forecast of one point five eight trillion. And if you reverse and back up to around the election, there was tons of enthusiasm around m and a rise in capital expenditures, positive sentiment, and we really haven't seen that yet. So corporate issuance is actually tracking lower year to date in twenty twenty
five versus twenty twenty four. And then to Tom's point, higher treasury yields has deterred some issuance in the IG market.
Are there certain sectors you guys favor at this point?
Yeah, So in IG we like tech, so I think tech evaluations have had been hurt by some of the AI stuff, and also exposure to China. We think that that's an attractive sect. Or places like utilities where you're still sort of insulated from tariffs. And then in the highield market, we like mortgage servicers. We think you're not vulnerable to the level of rates there you have recurring revenue streams, so that's a favorite sector as well.
See a big deal in the cable space cable b issuers and talking to the pros here so TMT.
I think it depends in ig We are comfortable with the risk in that sector and high yield less. So just given the maturity wall and some of the secular challenges that were mature.
The maturity wall was such a good band.
I love it.
Oh my god, they did def Leppard Lick No. One.
Megan Rapson, thank you so much for BMP Perry By. Thanks this morning.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cockplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining us for way, way.
Too short of visit.
William Lee is chief economist at the Milken Institute.
He's been incredibly busy. Bill.
I'm going to pull an audible on you with all your IMF work over the years. In the Pacific RIM, people are focused on China, people are focused on Canada, people are focused on Mexico. I'm focused on over one million unit exports of toyotas from Japan. We had a negative real GDP today. We got a forty year bond yield. In Japan, it's to the moon. There's a huge tension there politically as well. Explain the importance and power of Japan and these trade negotiations with mister Trump.
Well, you saw what the UK did for the creating a template as far as how partnerships work with the United States, right, that's an example where you had a lot of miss investment in the United States by the UK and this reciprocal understanding that there's the bowling by his rules engines and then they buy back the bowling plane. There's no tariffs on that kind of partnership relationship. Japan is one of these also the great partners in the
United States. Japan has one of the largest net investment positions in the United States. And I think the template that we're going to see coming out of the trading agreement is again an example of what good partnerships are. And now China, right, is a good example of what President Trump calls competition with the US. He choose not to produce here, he choose not to invest here, you
have a tariff wall. And I think that's going to be the template that we see going on to the rest of the deals that we will be making with.
All of your experience.
Is the ten percent a firm wall of tariffs or could the tariffs dip below on a blended basis migrate back towards at three percent level?
You know, I think one of the best things that happened to markets was when Secretary Vest talked at the Milking conference last week and reminded everyone tariffs are just one part of a policy package of smaller government, lower taxes or regulation. That's the important those are the important ingredients. The tariffs are really a small piece that tells our investment partners, look, you come here to the United States, will give you a terror hole to protect your investments
from unfair competition. So I think the ten percent number is there to stay, to remind everybody the value of the access into the US marketplace and to get rid of any kind of unfair competition. So I think the tarrefoles will stay with us. I think it'll be at that ten percent level. But again, it's a small piece of the policy package that really is exciting markets and got and reminded markets that that's where the emphasis is on the on the policy front bill.
What do you make of the weakness in the US dollar. Here, We've seen other risk ass assets like stocks rebound and retrace much of the losses, but not so much the dollar. What do you make of it here?
I'm so glad you asked that question, Paul. Again. That was a major part of the discussion among every major investor at the Milk conference. And they're always saying, what's happening to the role of the dollar and its valuation? And I think that's the key difference. The valuation of the dollar has come down off of its peak back in February when when everyone was so enthusiastic about the Trump election.
Let's remember that the value of the dollar is well above where it was five years ago, an average for the last five years. But the role of the dollar has really not changed at all. The role of the dollar as a reserve currency, the role of the dollar is the vehicle currency. That is not changed that No one has even talked about finding substitutes. But the valuation moves around and it's come off of the Tom highs, and that's normalization, is right.
It built a lot of folks. When I think about tariffs, they say they are a tax on the consumer. They say they are inflationary, do you agree?
You know, Paul, every economist is trained to say tariffs are the creation of the devil. It's the worst thing you can do to an economy, and I think in most cases it is, and it's been used badly by most emergent market countries to try to protect failing industries. I remind you that when a doctor diagnoses you with atrifibulation, he gives you cuminin and or war friend, which is rat poison. And I think that there's a role for
rat poison as a package of therapies. There's a role for tariffs as a package of economic policies, because in this case, the role of tariff is not to protect industries, but rather to incentivize serious discussion about bringing capital into the United States, and that I think was the real
role for the tariffs. That again, President Trump is reminded everybody that we really need to reshape the global economic trading system and we can't live with a WTO system that was created after World War Two.
Billy, you and I read Ricardo cover to cover. He didn't deal with a service sector like we have now. To tariff outcomes, are they the same in a service sector is a goods producing sector.
I don't buy it.
It's pretty hard to teariff services, isn't it, especially when when you it's a license for American banks to sell financial products and try. Yeah, and so so, I think the whole notion that twerfs has been done away with, especially with the different rounds of tarraf productions we've had over many decades. But the real serious barriers to trade that Ricardo didn't deal with, our non tariff barriers and the legal requirements and health requirements and quality standards that
are demanded of US exports into various countries. Those are the obstacles that are part of the negotiation practice that President Trump wanted to incentivize by putting up this huge tire pary and say, look, you guys, let's get serious pout getting rid of the real series blocks to trade.
Wait too short of this, Billy, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. With Milkin here off of the Milkin Institute celebration of another weeks ago, Shirley Basic, thank you so much for Milkin cover.
It is it's chief for.
Kindness, the Milkin Institute.
This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Usually we talk big Oil, Bran West Texas Intermediate, but with the President in the Middle East, I think we have to be advantaged by her true expertise as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. The calling card is her book Saudi Inc. Which is what we have observed for the last four or five six days.
Ellen Waald joins us.
Now, Ellen, how does the fragility of the royal family before nineteen thirty eight play with the present royal family of Saudi Arabia? They were nothing and then there was a discovery of oil in nineteen thirty eight, the invention of a Ramco.
And off we go.
How does that history play into the way the Saudi royal family thinks?
Yeah, I think that's that's a great, a great point, because one of the things that's important to remember is that they really had no money, very little sources of income back then, and so the hold on power was really just based on their ability to militarily control the tribes, and so once oil started flowing, it really became a way for them to exert their influence over the peninsula
basically through paying for things for people. They suddenly had the cash to be able to, you know, extend this large test and that was the symbol of their rule over the people. And so I do think that that is something that really has remained culturally throughout time, that there is this idea that the royal family is there to provide, and so if at any point they are unable to provide, that could jeopardize the legitimacy of them as the ruling the.
Persian golf, for the Arabian golf, whatever we're gonna name it next week, Ellen Wild There's each royal family has a story, whether they're flying from Doha down to Abu Dhabi. Do they all have in their head the same break even oil price or other distinctive break even oil prices for each nation each royal family?
Yeah?
Absolutely. I mean every every every oil industry in the Middle East is run differently, and I think that's a common misperception. People think it's just this monolithic, you know, national oil companies, but it's actually very different. A Rampo has a totally different break even price from say the Kuwait Oil Company or a rock or you know the UAE or you know even bah Rain for example. So
a Rampos is basically the lowest in the world. Their break even is, you know, depending on what they're producing, can be between two dollars and ten dollars. I usually like to say around six. It's kind of an average. That's the lowest in the entire world. So no matter how low oil prices go, a Ramco is still going to come out on top. Now that's different from the price that the Saudi government would like oil to be at to balance their budget, which I think is really
a totally useless figure. People like to bring this out, the IMF likes to talk about it, but that really doesn't influence the Saudi government all that much because the Saudi government isn't selling oil. A Ramco sells oil. The Saudi government gets revenue from that oil and those oil sales, but they're not actually selling it. That's not the way
it works in Iran. That's not the way it works in Kuwait, where those oil companies are much more intertwined with the government, and so the government is actually collecting that revenue directly, and so their price point, their break even points are higher, and they needed a higher price for their budget as well.
Ellen, you mentioned Iran, and as we you know, followed President Trumpter's trip through the Middle East here that Iran was always always in the background there. Could you just refresh our memory? How is Iran's what is Iran's role in the global energy market today?
Yeah, this is this is interesting. So you know, Iran has a lot of oil resources. You know, they have a lot of oil and a lot of natural bass in the ground, but production wise, they really don't.
Produce all that much.
I would say around now, they're producing about three point three million barrels of oil per day. Was actually on the higher side of late in twenty twenty they were down below three really I think the height at the height in the past decade, they were producing about four million barrels a day. So that's not all that big. You know, if we were compared to Saudi Arabia, to the United States, United States producing thirteen million barrels of oil today. So while they have a lot of resources,
they're not producing that much oil. Right now.
When we get a book, when I love when.
I finally get a good night's sleep.
Ellen Wald, I love bussing your jobs. Thank you so much. Ellen Wall's senior fellow the Atlantic Council.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm going to crack the book.
On Frank Fobosi this weekend, one thousand, nine hundred and four pages.
Kelsey Barrow's reading cover to cover.
Bob Michael said, you're not working for me unless you read Forbozi cover to cover. Kelsey joins us right now. Executive director JP Morgan on clipping coupons. Okay, I just did the fancy chart in the Bloomberg. You know Thomson couldn't have stopped me yesterday.
Says time.
You're not talking fancy math enough, So let's go the two ten spread, the differencing yield between the ten year and the two year. I took it back to Paul Voker, getting way way back. It's a very elegant standard deviation study. I don't think people realize that forty five basis points point four or five percentage points difference between the ten year and two year we're nowhere near normal steep center
tendency is one hundred and five basis points. Is that our future that we're going to get back to that kind of steep curve.
Well, we do think that the curve should be structurally steeper over time. It's a function of the fact that we're moving further away from an environment where the zero lower bound is a problem, and further away from an environment where the FED is giving a lot of fun.
Back to normal, yeah, I mean we're for your time.
We're slowly going back to normal. But I would say in the in the immediate horizon, what's going to drive the curve steeper is ultimately going.
To be expectations for the FED.
So if you think about over time, where does the volatility in the yield curve come from, it comes from the front end. It comes from the FED either raising rates or lowering rates. When we get a really steep curve, it's going to be a function of significant rate cuts From here.
Is that what JP Morgan s management is thinking about rate cuts going forward.
So right now, we don't expect rate cuts in the immediate term. We expect that the FED is going to remain on hold for now at least. And then in terms of what the FED is looking at, you know, we do see a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now, but it's really just not showing up in the hard data. I mean, the only place that I can really see it flowing through this uncertainty, which is primarily a function of the tariff regime, is in net
exports within GDP. But if you look at the jobs data, if you look at the inflation data, it's actually amazing how well entrenched the disinflation was heading into this trade war, given the inflation data we've gotten over the last few days.
So, do you guys at JP Morgan, sid Man, some of the smarter folks out there, is sitting to your treasury at four percent more or less? Or do you take credit risk here?
I think you want a little bit of credit risk, but I think you want to stay on the higher quality side. But I will say we have been diving really deep in terms of doing the credit work on an individual name basis and making sure that our companies are prepared for a more challenging environment. So what we actually did is we ran all of our companies through a stress test of ten percent tariffs and twenty percent tariffs.
Have you learn and we actually.
Learned that companies are in a very strong position. Even in that twenty percent stress test of tariffs, we still couldn't get investment grade earnings on a median company basis to get below z ear.
Get do their unit sales go down?
I mean, if you're doing this, micro Feroli, could you see Kelsey Barrow Micael Feroli PiZZ at seven pm?
I can see it. Okay.
Are you assuming then that the burden of the trade war is on the consumer and not on American corporates.
It's going to be a combination of both, so you are going to see I mean, it's that is really the reality is that for some companies the burden is going to go straight to the consumer, and then for some companies the burden is going to go more to them in terms of margin compression. But it's a sector bisector analysis.
Jamie Diamond and parishes today or our friends saying I'm sure he's bringing you back something nice that we are mess But Kelsey, the basic idea here is JP Morgan is global. JP Morgan's looking what foreign investors are doing. It's price up yeld down. Is that because foreigners are still buying our full faith and credit paper.
So yes, in general, while the narrative has been and the fear has been, particularly on the long end, that there's been this loss of sponsorship, and we do think that over time we have been seeing a trend from foreigners away from the US market, away from the US dollar, towards more diversified portfolios. But if you look at the Treasury allotment data more recently, foreign demand has been a fairly stable and if I look at our own active ETF complex, we've been seeing that demand has been fairly
healthy for fixed income throughout the year. But I think what has changed is the narrative around why fixed income fits into your portfolio. So if you were to ask a week ago, you know, why do you why do you want fixed income in your portfolio? People said, well, the risk reward around rate cuts. You know, we can hold it and it's a very good hedge in case we do hit that hard landing. Now that there has been this pause, this ninety day pause between the US
and China. People are bringing down that recession risk probability. People are saying, okay, so maybe the tail risk of hard landing has been priced out, but yields are still really high. I'm looking to have that fixed income in my portfolio still, but it's more for clipping coupon and that stable income.
So are there certain sectors that you guys like if you think about taking some credit risk here? Are you a sector kind of focus or kind of looking at different factors? How do you guys think about I'm kidding.
All across the board, but what we've been focused on is as you've seen a repricing in spreads, where has things been lagging and those are the places you know where we're most focused. So we've seen in this retracement and spreads tighter. We've seen some lagging in triple b's, in autos and energies some of these credits. We've seen some opportunity to pick up yield in areas where the
repricing has been slightly less efficient. And there's also opportunities, I would say in securitize credit, which is an area we focus a lot on again where the repricing tends to be slower and less efficient, and those are the areas where we're focused on adding.
So when securitize, it is that mortgage back securities, asset backed securities, all the above, all of.
The above, but in terms of where you're going to find the credit risk component that would be and you know your asset backed securities things that are backed on auto loans. For an example, Yankees are Mets, Mets Mets.
Yeah, all right, it's exciting.
It's been great. Yeah, we went to a game last Sunday, Mother's Day.
It was beautiful. Huh.
I can't want some mess because of nineteen eighty six. But they're going into the Yankee Stadium tonight, right, Yeah, so it's going to be a right drink right.
Across the nation.
I mean, I'm like the worst person to talk about this because I literally.
I get upset in this room that we're in.
Right here was where I met Lenny Dykstra.
Wow, and he and I.
Taught there his home run in Game three, nineteen eighty six. It's never come down. It's over marbleheads somewhere, and this is really exciting.
Are you going no I'm not going, but we'll be watching, certainly in my household my husband.
It will be on tonight.
If I call mister Diamond and you can free up the seats, can you go?
Well, we confirmed that Kelsey entertain they are going to the new building on the Park Avenue. They've got desks, so that's big because you know, Bob Michael, he wasn't sure.
Did you pick the maroon carpet that's gonna be?
I'm sure whatever it is, it will be grea.
Have you been in the building yet?
No, I have not, but I sit in the building across from men. I see them working every single day. Yeah, every single day, and they're making so much progress.
For those those you nationwide.
I was walking down Madison Avenue and I don't care what any I don't care about all the architectural credits.
I hope the New York Times treats it well. It sits beautiful.
Was it in mid twentieth century? It pays homage to our.
Parents coming into New York City. You know, Park Avenue around was forty eighth Street, forty seventh Sweet, it's just spectacular new It's just Morgan Headquarters coming up.
It's not like stupid, ugly or it just sits beautifully. Kelsey Bugel, architect for JP Morgan.
Thank you.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal