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This conversation is for every elected politician in Washington as they listen on ninety ninety one FM this morning. Douglas Erwin is an institution. Blanche Flower is not an institution. He's just a macroeconomist. Doug Irwin is an institution at Dartmouth at College. In his ute, the definitive book and still fresh, Fresh Fresh is against the tide.
It was definitive at the time. More recently is clashing over commerce.
For those of you on YouTube, it's over his right shoulder at right now and book lined office, Professor Irwin. We are honored that you would attend today. If you were to meet with a congressional leadership today, how should they respond to what the executive branch has wrought?
I would say that under the US Constitution, Article one, section eight, you have power over tariffs, and the problem has been is successive congresses have delegated so many powers of tariff setting to the president on the assumption that the president will basically act in the national interest and tend to lower tariffs and trade agreements. That Congress has given up its authority. So it's time for Congress to stand up and assert itself a bit more on trade.
Their constituents will be hurt by many of these measures, and yet the Republicans seem to be very quiet about it.
How will they affect that reassertion. Do they need the judicial branch to support them or do they just sit down with the beverage of their choice. What do they drink at Dartmouth? It's like lebats.
Yes, they like Doug Irwin. Do they have a labet? So the president say this is too much?
I think you have to look back to the first Trump term when President Trump almost pulled out of NAFTA and he was convinced by his Secretary of Agriculture and a few congressional allies that that would not be a right move, that he should renegotiate it because they were pointing to the harm that would be done to his voters, farmers in the Midwest, manufacturing firms in the Upper Midwest that depend on exports, and so that sort of helped convince him in terms of a longer run solution of
changing legislation to in power Congress more that sort of a long run solution to what is now a short term crisis.
Doug, how do we think about tariffs in a global intertwined economy. It's not like the eighteen hundreds where we imported a relatively small number of goods. We exported a relatively small number goods and then global economy to tariffs.
How do they work?
Yeah, you're right, it's actually very different than it was a century ago. A lot of trade a century ago was sort of in final goods or in very basic raw materials, and now what we have is integrated supply chains and international production networks. So the web of commerce and the greedy witch firms in all sectors are sort of bound to the global economy in some way. Is so much more extensive today than it was even fifty
years ago, let alone one hundred years ago. The terriffs have much more ripple effects throughout the economy, and these proposed tariffs will rip apart North American supply chains and be quite extensive in terms of the reach that they will have.
Deugr when you mentioned Frank Tausig the giant at Harvard years ago.
This is folks one hundred years ago writing on terrffs.
To me, there's a whole mythology going on right now, whether it's a president's affair with mister McKinley from another time and place.
We trot back Lisa mentioned.
Smoot Holly this morning, or we go back to August of nineteen seventy one when the world turned upside down with Richard Nixon and gold myth Doug Irwin is most wrong.
Well, I'd say the myth that the US economy grew in the late nineteenth century. We became an industrial power because of the tariff. There's a classic case of correlation not being causation. So there are a lot of reasons why the US became an industrial power after the Civil War. Up until World War One, we had massive immigration. Not many people in the Comme administration and mentioned that we were the recipient of major capital inflows from Britain and
other countries. We were adopting technology then the technological leader of Britain. We are pretty much open to the world except in trade, so we did have high tariffs, but they did promote manufacturing a bit. But if you look where the productivity growth was, it was in the service sector. It was railroads and then later electrification and telecommunications. It wasn't just manufacturing and becoming rich because of the tariff walls.
If you're just joining us this morning, Bloomberg Surveillance, and thank you for joining Bloomberg. We continue with Douglas Erwin of Dartmouth at College. Many good guests coming up, including Damien Sasa are in Foreign Exchange down negative five ninety one to Erwin of Dartmouth.
Paul Sweeney, Professor, talk to us about these tariffs in the context of they seem to be enacted by President Trump in response to non economic issues per se, maybe whether it's the fentanyl coming into this country, whether it's immigration policy from our neighbors. Is that kind of the way tariffs should be used, typically are used. How do you think about that?
Well, what's interesting about these is they haven't really been vetted by the Trump economic team. His US Trade representative is not in office yet. We've just had the confirmation of the Treasury Secretary Commerce Secretary to come. So usually when countries imposed tarrifs, and usually when the US has done this in the past, there's an interagency process where you deliberate and you figure out what is the best
case and how can we make these work? And I think these are a little bit in advance of those advanced discussions within the administration. So I think you get this hodgepodge of reasons why we're doing this. It could be the fentanyl phrase of the migrants. But we also hear still about the trade dempsit. I mean, when President Trump makes these statements, comes back to the imbalanced trade
and he's actually ordered a review on that. But it's very hard for other countries negotiating, and there are ten different things that are being flung at you at in terms of what you're doing wrong.
Dougarwin honored to have you here for breaking news. This is some Doug Ford. He is a Premier of Ontario. He's basically I mean Ontario stretch is from just north of Hanover, New Hampshire, all the way over to Carlton College in Minnesota. But the Ontario government says they will cancel all US contracts. And what's important is this is quote we're going one step further we'll be ripping up the province's contract with Starlink, and of course it has
to do with the Elon Musk and all that. Dug Ford. Service sector hasn't been talked about much. Do you expect service sector to be harmed as much as the goods sector?
Not as much because they're not directly hit by tariffs. But there's a complementarity between trade and services and trade and goods, and the two often go hand in hand. So if you disrupt trade and goods, there's going to be some spillower effects, negative ones for the service sector as well.
Professor. Some of the concerns here as it relates to tariffs just in general is that they are inflationary in the US economy. How do you think about that?
But I don't think they don't cause inflation in the sense of a sustained increase in the CPI. They are sort of level effects, so they will increase the level of consumer prices and industrial prices, so that will lead to a bump and measured inflation. It's not clear that FED has to respond to that, but what that means is the declining real income and purchasing power of those
businesses and households. I mean, just to give you a personal example which I shared on social media yesterday, I had an email from Irving Oil, which provides US with propaine, saying that any tax that's levied on them as they ship propane from Canada to the US will be directly added to the bill that we're facing here in New Hampshire. So even before the terrorists took effect, are already being warned prices are going to go off.
Lightheiser, and it's on my table at home. No trade is free. Robert Leiitthheiser focused on China. Lightheiser pushed aside in the second Trump administration, Douger went on a ten percent tariff on China. How would you suggest Beijing will respond?
Actually, I'm a little bit less worried about China, and I'm a little bit surprised we're going after our allies and ripping up North American supply chains by going after Canada and Mexico. I mean, the big rival to the US and big problem in terms of trade has been China, and yet President Trump has deemphasized that. So I'm not going to agree with Robert Leittheizer on many things, but to the extent that he's focused mainly on China. I think that's where the administration has to look too.
So, Professor, how do you think the governments of Canada and Mexico should respond? Will respond? I mean, how deep is this going to go? Do you think how long will does go?
Do you think, well, it's very interesting. There's a report that the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, will be speaking with the President today, So I'd say there's a small chance things could get averted, even though I wouldn't be too autimistic about that. But I think they're responding in the way that actually they did at least Canada
did with the smooth hawlight here for nineteen thirty. That is not to take it sitting down to retaliate, And they're very strategic in terms of the goods that they put pressure points on that are important in the US when in putting those tariffs on. So they try to post tariffs on things maximize the political harm in the US, but the least economic harm from Canada because they'll be subs to products that they can import.
Doug the World stopped for against the Tide and intellectual history of free trade thirty.
Some years ago.
The final chapter thirty some years ago, Page two seventeen, The Past and Future of Free Trade?
Okay, WTO.
I was in Jimmy Chang's office in Hong Kong the day WTO collapsed. Doug Irwin, what is the future of free trade? After GAT, after Uruguay, after WTO, and now Trump?
What is the future?
Well, it's going to be a bit of a mess, and it could be basically redrawn lines of trade based on geopolitics. But you know, most countries, speaking outside of the US now, most countries have a tremendous stake in the trading system and open trade. They're much smaller economies. They've opened up over the past thirty forty fifty years or so. They received economic benefits buy and large from that,
and to undo that is harmful for them. So I think even if the US, because of our politics for what have you, move in a different direction, the rest of the world will still be open for business to the intent they can.
I mean, Doug, I know hitters like Jamie Diamond and listening, Brian moynan and others in banking. Maybe Christine Lergard, Good morning, Madame Lecguard and your team in Frankfort, Doug Irwin on the X axis, forget about J curve dynamics.
I don't buy it.
On the X axis, Professor Irwin, we shift from an inflationary dynamic of tariffs over to the growth or less growth dynamic on your time continuum.
What's the when of that?
When do we shift from a study of inflation higher to growth slower?
Well, there have been a lot of independent forecasts of these Trump tariffs, from the Tax Foundation, from the INSU for International Economics, and from other entities, and none of them have any positive effects. It's always negative. And the question is, given the scenario, what how negative you go? You shave point two point three point four percent off of GDP. Those are sort of where the numbers are
coming in, and those will come in fairly quickly. If we actually see the tariffs go into effect on Tuesday, we'll probably see, certainly by the second or third quarter, somewhat slower growth. Now, once again, that doesn't mean it's pushing us into recession, but it just means that after a year or two, our real GDP will be lower than it otherwise would have been.
I got one final question, Doug, you're sort of up in you know, the edge of Canada.
Yeah, Hanover's really mine.
I mean it's not a Connecticut river and it's really it's like it's sort of like New York North.
I don't know.
Those are hardy people up there.
They're hardy. Yeah, it's a strift bubble.
Yes. What are you telling somebody over a cup of coffee this morning? Doug Irwin in Victoriaville, Quebec. You're at a diner in Victoria. What are you telling them to do? What should Canada do?
You know? Canada was very savvy during the first Trump term. They made a lot of We talked about Congress. We
opened our discussion with Congress. They realized that maybe the administration is not going to be very sympathetic, but in members of Congress are because they are much closer to how their constituents will be affected by this, and so they worked state legislatures, They worked on Capitol Hill and tried to create an environment where it constrains the administration in terms of how much they can push things and
what they can do. So there may not be much support for Canada in the White House, but there are other pressure points in the business community and the state and legislatures and elsewhere that they can try to contain the damage that will be done to them from these tariffs.
Douglas Irwin honored. You go to tend, go back to class, get the chalk in your hand and teach.
Okay, I won't tell Blancheflower what you said.
Okay, don't tell them.
We're going to probably done in Florida right now, distant from the tariffs.
Dougarwin, thank you so much.
Into David Blanchefhard, thank you so much for his support of all of Dartmouth economic.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Joining us. How Lori Calvissini here with the small stocks down two percent is as well? I mean, Laurie to cut to the chase. Can strollers move the term the needle on export import dynamics? Don't?
I don't know about strollers, Tom, I don't think I ever paid one thousand dollars one of mine.
There's one here, I kid you not, folks. The Junama Pilot collection.
Baby Pram is two thousand nice good dollars and there's a small cab out they're making that puppy right now. Is this an opportunity, Lori Kelvicina, I mean, you're with the Royal Bank of Canada.
Is this an opportunity to acquire stocks?
Look?
Look, it's always the good day to buy stocks, right Look, I think the reality is that we're seeing a little bit of a sell off today. It could have been worse. I do think that we've had some valuation problems in the market. I do think we've had some froth in the market. If you look at the CFTC data on US equity future positioning. I do still think it's going to be a good year in the equity market if
we kind of get through this issue. And I've told people, you know, a common talking point today has been, Look, if you think about my S and P five hundred forecast sixty six hundred at the end of the year, not because of tariff specifically, but I have baked into that number the idea of a five to ten percent draw down. We do have a bare case ready to go a fifty seven seventy five should certain conditions be met. Those conditions have not been met. But there are things
we have to keep an eye on. Ten year yields, how they react to the environment we're in right now. What about these vibes We've been hearing about these vibes that we're supposed to be so fantastic and explode post election, and yet we've had two disappointing prints on the consumer sentiment and confidence surveys. And now we've got businesses talking a lot about uncertainty from the tariffs, denting some of the post election optimism. So there are things we've got
to watch. We've got to be vigilant. I think we're still on a good path. Are the odds that we could get knocked off that path up? Yeah, they're up a little bit, Laurie.
How important are earnings to the twenty twenty five performance in this market? Because it just doesn't feel like I'm going to get that much from the Federal Reserve in terms of rate cuts, So it feels like I need to rely upon earnings maybe a little bit more.
I think that's fair, Paul, And you know, we sort of have said this for two reasons. Number One, if we do are modeling on the valuation side and plug in current assumptions, whether it's my guys at RBC or the consensus numbers on things like inflation, the Fed ten year yields, I can't come up with that real you have a number for the market at the end of
the year. Valuations have moved a lot, and they've done it on the backs of inflation ramping down, and now it looks like inflation, you know, there may be some upside pressures there. So I think it's tough from that perspective. And if you just take a more kind of simplistic analysis and look at a forward pe on the S and P five hundred and you can all these different versions. All my charts are showing me that we've kind of hit a ceiling and we're moving down a little bit.
So I think valuation expansion is tough to come by. Earnings matter, margin expectations have been coming down. I do think that there are potential negative impacts to earnings, both from demand margins of right at the dollar is something else to watch from this tariff situation, and things like the dollar are already starting to pinch.
Is there a small cap meg seven?
Oh?
You know, I think there are names that small cap investors end up crowding into. They don't like the fact that they do it, which is one of the things I love about the small cap investment community. But you know, I do think we've had a little bit of a
squeeze on quality. And what I mean by that is you've seen just the quality characteristics of the Russell two thousand degrade nearly half of its negative earners, a lot of things that are kind of low liquidity, tiny market calf that frankly, active managers just can't buy, and so they do tend to gravitate to kind of the bigger small calfs, more liquidity, higher quality stats. But it's more expansive than a mag seven.
It's been wonderful too.
Short of visit Lori Kelvicin to thank you so much with OURBC Capital Markets. She'll be publishing in the coming lawers.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty This is important.
As we talked to Douglas Herwin of Dartmouth College here and he really mentioned, like, where's the legislative branch? We continue with that on a gentleman from Harvard and now at Yale got a Makunda joins us scary and I want to go back to your book indispensable when leaders really matter? Where is the indispensable leadership of Republicans and Democrats in Congress in the Senate?
Given this upset we.
Have, Democrats have no idea what they should do, and Republicans have been broken to Trump's will. At this point, we've so you seen just about everybody coming.
Is there a historical president to the way quote Republicans have been broken unquote.
In the United States? It's hard to think of one. Even Franklin Roosevelt faced more domestic yeah from his own party than Trump does. Right now, just to put this in context, Donald Trump has higher approval ratings from Republicans, just from Republicans. He's inessentially a nothing any from anyone else than Ronald Reagan or George W.
Bush.
Ever, did I think he might actually have higher numbers than EISENHOWERD did?
Right?
He is the most popular Republican president among Republicans in the history of bowling.
So what do you think he does with that type of popularity here? I mean, it feels like tariffs are kind of I don't know, they don't seem like that big a deal to me. I mean, one could argue if you had that type of support, one could do some really big things. How do you think that he and his administration think about their popularity and support?
So the question here, right is do they how much are they care? Right? So, Donald Trump is particularly sensitive to popularity issues. He always has been. And this might just be an exercise in getting people to bend the knee and sort of defer to Donald Trump, and Okay, then there'll be some damage from that, but not kindstrophic.
But the biggest moves that Trump has made are putting personnel's policy, putting loyalists in charge of the major organs of the major internal and external security organs of the government, and that gives him the ability to put pressure on the opposition in ways that we've never seen in the United States before.
If you talked to the Secretary of Treasury who darkened the door in New Haven years.
Ago, I have not talked to talking to Wait, yeah, I'm talking about.
Okay, I mean I find it's absolutely fascinating and that you're sitting in You're sitting in the pit there doing the Yale management dance with a piece.
Of chalk in your hand.
What is your mandate to executives to communicate to their comfortable Republican candidate what this will mean for Carlos Gudier's, Kellogg's or Tyson Food, which Lisa just mentioned were their huge dark meat to China's strategy.
What do executives say so?
I think the first one is that if they don't realize it now, they will soon. The United States government has been uniquely stable for a couple of centuries, just basically longer than any the country in the world, and American business has been the extraordinary beneficiary of that. If that goes away, it will have consequences in ways that
we cannot predict, but that are gargantuan. I'll just say, as a general rule, it's when the things that you so deeply believe about the world that you don't even think about them turn out not to be true that you have the biggest impact. And here is one where the basic underlying principle of everything in global economics and everything in global foreign policy has been the US government
kind of knows what it's doing. That assumption is breaking while we speak, and that will change things for it. I'll just give you a couple of quick examples. Pepfar so PEPFAR is the program is created by George W. Bush distribute anti retrovirals in Africa. There are statues to George W. Bush in Africa. There are children named after him. Because of the scale of this achievement, when they put out the spending freeze, people just stopped getting their drugs
in Africa the next day. If pep far goes away, the estimate for it south Africa alone, just South Africa, is that in the next ten years, six hundred thousand people will die. That is the sort of achievement, right. Only the United States can do things like that. It is a gargantuan achievement. It costs the average American like
a dollar a year or something like that. It's just any insignificant expense, and it buys us not just helping to keep people alive, it buys us sort of acceptance allies from you know, China.
President Trump has huge popularity numbers. I think there's going to be a lot of polls that agree with his speed, his thrust. But part of that is to say to CDC in Atlanta, they can't talk to the World Health Organization. Basically the global medical system shuts down. What do you suggest the legislature, our Congress could do about it? If anything?
So Democrats have the ability to essentially bring the Senate to a halt by manipulating rules, so deny unanimous consent on everything, force everybody to be in there. They can do a lot to be obstacle.
Do you see that yet?
No, not at all.
Did you see rarema Manuel? He was up morning Joe this morning. We're efforting mister Emmanuel here on a blistering essay in the Post this weekend on kids Democratic Party.
It's quite astonishing. So not just in the legislature. Greshen Whitmer has said she wants to cooperate and is out sort of selling her selling her the kids version of autobiography. Gresham Whitmer has phenomenal political instincts, so I'm not going to say, well, that's crazy, but it's a surprising tack
for her to take. I also wonder if to some extent, Democrats are not just looking at the fire hose of things coming out of the Trump administration and saying, you know, any one of these individually is likely to be pretty unpopular in the combination, not with Republicans, but with most Americans, and the combination of them is likely to be extraordinarily unpopular. So, as we've talked about before, American public opinion is thermostatic.
Whatever the president does, people move against it. If you do things that are unpopular, they move against it even more strongly if you interfere. This is the really striking one with the Treasury's payment system, which literally touches the life of every single American every day, every moment. People are going to feel that right away, and he is
going to have pretty significant consequences the trade stuff. I agree with you, Paul that I think at a macro level, the economics on that are they're not going to be huge. But the individual people who are hurt by this are going to be hurt a lot, and they are going to scream really, really loudly, and that has political consequences that may be larger than the economic ones.
Are you surprised that maybe we haven't Thank you, Ken. Are you surprised that maybe we haven't had a a someone from the Democratic Party really established himself or herself as a contravoice to President Trump and his policies. I mean, the only person I kind of hear from Schumer. But I mean, does the Democratic Party need a new voice, a new vision?
It definitely does. The basic problem for the Democrats is not that they lost the twenty twenty four election that was baked into the inflation numbers. I don't see a scenario where they win that election. The basic problem for Democrats is they are not had it been twenty five states, right, so it's almost impossible for them to take the Senate. They started a huge handicap, and that is about larger institutional structural shifts in the party that are pretty severe.
You can talk about any you know, like there are a million different explanations. My favorite one would be and an activist class that essentially is educated at Ivy League schools like mine and talks only to themselves and does not have a sense of that you can see Democrats who are likely to break out of that mold. You know, I mentioned Gresham Whitmer' is a popular one. I mean two names that people don't talk enough about, Reuben Gallego
and Seth Moulton. And I mentioned both of them because yeah, they're both you know, they both went to Harvard, but they're both Marines. They are not part of the activist community where we only talk to you, right. They know how to talk to people who are out out of that mold, and they're very good at we're out of time.
This has been really informative on an emotional day. The Tariff's clicking in here at midnight tonight. Mister Ford of Toronto and Ontario out with blistering statements today, including walking away from Starlink, and mister Musk as well got to Macondis with Yale University, and I'm sure we'll hear more from them.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
On the front page is a Lisa Matteo. Our Lisa, what do you got?
Okay, we've been talking about tariff, so I have to start there. Canadian sports fans are actually letting the US know how they feel about it. They're booing the national anthem sporting events. We're talking from the NBA to the NHL. So this happened yesterday. The Rafters were facing the Clippers in Toronto and a fifteen year old performer, she got out there and she was greeted with applause until she began singing the.
Star Spangled banner.
Yeah, they weren't too.
Happy about it, started booing. This is from actually an ABC affiliate. They pulled this down from a social media post. But it's just this growing trend, Like it wasn't just that game. It was Saturday during the anthem before NHL. You had the games in Calgary, ottawatch you last night Canucks fans in Vancouver they boo the anthem before their team took on Detroit. So it's this ongoing battle kind of showing the frustration. Some FANSO did say they felt bad, but the majority of them are.
Really I defer to you too, because I grew up in Toronto South a place called Rochester where you know, I mean, I think I was the first one in America to drink Mulston and Gold, sure, but often, but I don't have a clear thinking on this. I'm just too close to O Canada and all.
That I do. But so next, moving on, So Michael Barr, you heard him give them the Grammy wrap ups, right, So I just wanted to do a little bit more in the two voices that were kind of unrecognized, you know. I had a couple of snubs along the way. So yes, Beyonce did win Alma the Year Cowboy Carter, right fifth time she was nominated for it. She also won Best Country Album. Her total trophy count now stands at thirty five.
But it was this whole thing like she kept getting snubbed and kept getting snubbed, and finally she wins it for her country album. And then on the flip you also have Kendrick Lamar. He got Song Record of the Year for Not Like Us, which actually regenated as a Drake Disc song, but he was snubbed from that prize
four times. To all these people who are getting snubbed, he actually what was interesting is that he beat out Record of the Year over Now and Then, which was this kind of resuscitated Beatles demo supported and supposedly made with Ai but they're just saying it's a victory for rap music because it's only one album of the year twice. I mean I think it was Lauren Hill and then Outcast.
So that was a lot of the talk here.
You know what the buzzes this Weekend.
The Weekend has a new album now of Awesome, Awesome, Awesome, you know awesome. Mike Dean is the one putting it together. It's just hugely anticipated.
There you go next.
Oh and he's also at the Super Bowl to performing. Okay, so Chick fil A they want to make their drives through is faster. So this was an interesting look from the journal into how they're using high tech. Like this was a restaurant operator Rockford, Illinois. They had this new drive through record. It served one car every thirteen seconds. But they still want to improve it. So they're looking at different things security footage right in the kitchen, but
also drones. They're using drones to kind of hover over the parking lot and take footage so they can look at it. And they actually found a few things where they can work on, like veteran workers taking on too many duties, the Wi Fi used by the parking lot order takers, because you know, they have them mountain in the parking lot. They didn't extend far enough, so they were kind of getting kicked off the Wi Fi as
they were trying to take in all these orders. And so the company's just using like a lot of these experts. They're dispatching them to like three thousand of their different restaurants. But the interesting thing is how it's forcing a lot of other food chain who don't normally use drive throughs to use them, like Chipotle is starting to use drive through really yeah, because of the online orders are so huge, and shake Shack is starting to use drive throughs.
Now, Isn't it just complexity of the menu, Like one it all goes in and gets his triple four bulte.
Starbucks, they're reducing the complex.
They're reducing complex because apparently the amount of combinations you can use on it Starbucks menu is mind boggling.
So you gonna try to listen to tell you thank you so much for the news this morning.
The newspapers.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am. Easter and on bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal